So what happened to YouGov?
After weeks of arguing and analysis the big loser this afternoon must be YouGov. After the extraordinary successes in in getting the Tory leadership battles of 2001 and 2005 right today’s victory by a 14% margin by Ming Campbell must put a big question mark over membership polls.
The 56.9 to 43.1 vote split compared with the Huhne 52% to Campbell 48% share that YouGov was predicting.
With the favourite slot changing hands five times during the 8 week campaign this has been a fascinating battle for political gamblers.
From a personal perspective I stuck by the YouGov prediction but kept my Campbell and Huhne position balanced so that this has been very profitable.
The huge difference between the result and the poll will be repeated time and time again and might have an impact on future leadership contest in the Lib Dems and other parties.
Why should the YouGov methodology work so well with the Tories but not with the Lib Dems? It will be interesting to see Peter Kellner’s reaction.