Can Cameron get more than 80% of the membership vote? With Cameron looking an odds-on certainty to succeed Michael Howard there’s a new market on the share of the vote that he’ll get in the membership ballot. Given that the current best conventional bookie price on him winning is 1/10 why not try a different bet where the returns could be higher. You can get an attractive price with Paddy Power’s “what will Cameron’s vote share be” punt. The prices…
Tory race helps push the site’s comments’ total into six figures At some point in the next 24 hours somebody is going to post a comment on the site which will be the 100,000th since PB.C came into being in March 2004. As of time of this article the total number stood at 99,679 so we are almost at the point where the total is in six figures. More than 92,000 of the postings have been made since the start…
Brown’s price eases from 0.23/1 to o.4/1 As the chart shows the implied probability of Gordon Brown succeeding Tony Blair, based on the best betting price, has moved sharply since the high-spot of the Chancellor’s speech at the Brighton conference just a month ago. Although this is a very light market with little liquidity it is clear that there the near certainty that last month’s 0.23/1 Brown price suggested has been affected by what has been going on in the…
But Cameron 15% ahead amongst “floating voters” In spite of all the Tory publicity of recent weeks Labour is still on target for a comfortable fourth General Election victory according to ICM in the Guardian this morning – a view backed by the betting markets where Labour is the 0.63/1 favourite. The pollster’s October survey shows the party shares at CON 33: LAB 36: LD 22 – the Labour lead is down 4 points on the month A Gordon Brown…
The Mori polling organisation have just published details on their website of the Tory leadership poll that was featured in the Sun this morning. With a sample of just 508, compared with the normal 1000+, the survey has to be treated with a little bit of caution, but it does show Cameron having 33% support amongst the general public compared with 13% for David Davis and 11% for Liam Fox who was still in the race when the field-work was…
How long has he got to prove he can make a difference? There is only one reason why Tory MPs and Tory members want David Cameron as their next leader – they believe that he can lead the party to greater electoral success than the alternative. They desperately want to return to power and the inexperienced and relatively unknown Cameron appears to offer this prospect more than David Davis. If Cameron is to lose the final ballot in the coming…
Six months of betting – six weeks to go Three quarters of a way into the eight month battle for the Tory leadership it is now down to just two men – the two Daves – Cameron and Davis. On the betting markets there’s been a slight easing of the Cameron price and a tightening of the Davis price. Many punters had been piling into Cameron in the expectation that the contest might be over this weekend. Now the battle…
New poll blow to Team Davis Cameron tightens to 1/10 on Betfair With the final MP ballot due to take place this afternoon a YouGov poll of Tory party members in the Telegraph this morning has Cameron 59%: Fox 18%: Davis 15%. This poll is taken very seriously because a similar survey ahead of the 2001 membership ballot predicted the final result to within one percent. Other findings:- If the membership ballot was between Davis and Cameron the Shadow Education…