But Cameron 15% ahead amongst “floating voters”
In spite of all the Tory publicity of recent weeks Labour is still on target for a comfortable fourth General Election victory according to ICM in the Guardian this morning – a view backed by the betting markets where Labour is the 0.63/1 favourite.
In the coming weeks we expect more polls like this and we might see surveys showing the Tories ahead on General Election voting intention. The issue will be whether this can be sustained.
It is worth reminding ourselves that the developments in the Tory party have happened very quickly and we will get a clearer view of their impact in a week or so. Just fifteen days ago David Davis was still the favourite. Only three weeks ago the Cameron price on IG’s Binary bet market was 5-9.
ROUND 2 PREDICTION COMPETITION.
Paul Maggs reports. Following the second MPsâ€™ vote and the elimination of Liam Fox, there is a three-way tie between Gary Barford (post 1), Clarke Ken (10), and Alex Williams (35), all of whom were just 4 votes out overall. The next best predictions were from Alasdair (57) with 5 and James M (23) with 6.
Adding together the results for rounds 1 and 2, the best combined score is Round 1 winner Stephen Thomas with 14, followed by Tabman and Ben with 16, and James M and Andrew M with 18.