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Month: August 2005

Follow “Wat Tyler” for the best Tory form guide

Follow “Wat Tyler” for the best Tory form guide

Who is David Davis’s web cheer-leader attacking today? Punters wanting to find out which contender members of the Davis Davis team consider to be the greatest current threat should go to the blog of the Shadow Home Secretary’s internet cheer-leader and the comments on this site by the man behind it and who uses the alias Wat Tyler – of Peasant’s Revolt fame. For almost every day visitors to his site are treated to fierce, biting and usually amusing attacks…

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Is this the White House line-up for 2008?

Is this the White House line-up for 2008?

Can Hilary become a less divisive figure? It’s nearly three weeks since we last looked at the 2008 White House race and since then there have been some polls which reinforce the view that the former Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani will be lined up against the New York Senator and former First Lady, Hilary Clinton. Usually at this stage in the cycle the suggested possibilities for their parties’ Presidential nominations are people with little name recognition whose first…

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Why is ICM witholding its polling data?

Why is ICM witholding its polling data?

Politicalbetting to complain to British Polling Council Politicalbetting is making a formal complaint to the British Polling Council over the failure of ICM to make data available in line with its obligations under the Council’s “Statement of Disclosure”. The complaints relates to the Guardian’s July poll which was published nearly four weeks ago and for which the full data has yet to be published even though we requested it in writing and indeed initially raised the non-disclosure here on the…

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Book Value to be guest PB.C editor

Book Value to be guest PB.C editor

Will Philip add to his 3,244? Book Value (Philip Grant) will be the site’s guest editor when I go on my holiday from next Friday for two and a bit weeks. Philip was one of the first ever people to write a comment on the site and I am sure that he will be shocked to hear that has made or been mentioned in the grand total of 3,244 separate contributions since then. He also took on the task of…

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Assuming that it will be Davis taking on Brown…

Assuming that it will be Davis taking on Brown…

versus ? Is Labour set to lose its overall majority in 2009? Even though we are probably four years away from the next UK General Election betting has already started although few punters seem to have been tempted to lock up their money so far ahead. On the Spreadfair betting exchange the latest spreads are LAB 311-316 seats: CON 239-244: LD 59.5-62 . On the conventional markets the best Labour price on which party will win most seats is 2/5…

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Is it all going wrong for Angela Merkel?

Is it all going wrong for Angela Merkel?

After months in which her success in the German General Election was seen as almost a foregone conclusion things have started to go badly wrong for Angela Merkel. Heinrich Martz, who has become a PB.C regular, sent this tonight. All those who think the election is over had better take a second look. At the moment, the election is wide open. The CDU (42%) and FDP (6%) have a combined 48% of the vote. But the left-wing parties, the SPD…

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“Ken Clarke ready to ditch support for the Euro” – Guardian

“Ken Clarke ready to ditch support for the Euro” – Guardian

Would such a U-turn be enough to beat David Davis? After our thread yesterday on Ken Clarke’s bid for the Tory leadership comes a report this morning that the former Tory Chancellor is prepared to ditch his long-standing support for the Euro in order to position himself better in the campaign for his party’s leadership. Many observers believe that Clarke’s support for the Euro and being ready in 1999 (above) to sit alongside Tony Blair on a platform on the…

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Suddenly Ken Clarke is back in fashion again

Suddenly Ken Clarke is back in fashion again

What’s behind the betting move towards the veteran campaigner? It’s some time since we featured our chart showing prices changes in the Tory leadership race because there’s been so little movement. For weeks the implied probability based on best betting prices has David Davis at more than 55%; David Cameron on 22% and the rest of the field almost nowhere – except Ken Clarke. For the former Tory Chancellor has seen a recovery and is not far off the peak…

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