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Month: July 2005

If it’s not Gordon Brown – then who is in contention?

If it’s not Gordon Brown – then who is in contention?

RED Alan Johnson: GREEN David Miliband: BLUE David Blunkett: BLACK Alan Milburn What if “events” blew the Chancellor’s career plan off course? While all the focus has been on the Tory leadership race it’s easy to forget that there’s almost certainly going to be a Labour leadership contest before the General Election. Gordon Brown, of course, is the red hot odds-on favourite but at 0.29/1 you would probably be better off leaving your stake in the building society than locking…

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How Davis’s challengers are shaping up

How Davis’s challengers are shaping up

Davis’s challengers – RED David Cameron: BLUE Ken Clarke: BLACK Liam Fox Clarke and Fox barely make an impact The moves to get the Liam Fox and Ken Clarke bandwagons moving in the Tory leadership contest have so far failed to impress the punters who are continuing to rate David Cameron as the man most likely to take on David Davis. Our latest chart shows the implied probablility of the three main challengers to Davis in the Tory leadership contenders…

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Would choosing Clarke be blowing smoke into the eyes of the membership?

Would choosing Clarke be blowing smoke into the eyes of the membership?

Can the veteran Europhile make it in a party of Europhobes? To many of his supporters Ken Clarke’s greatest strength is that like on the EU, or his link with a tobacco company the former Chancellor has never been prepared to tone down his positions in order win political popularity. What a contrast, they say, with Tony Blair and New Labour. On the face of it the moves to give a bigger role to Tory MPs in the leadership selection…

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Blair fourth term market goes online

Blair fourth term market goes online

It’s 16/1 against him winning a fourth term and staying as PM If you do not mind locking your money up for several years Ladbrokes have now begun taking online bets on whether Tony Blair will fight and win the next General Election and stay at Number 10. The price is an attractive 16/1 which we think is a fair reflection of the risk and the cost of the bookmaker and not you holding onto your stake until possibly May…

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The money’s going on David Davis not doing it

The money’s going on David Davis not doing it

Can he still get to the top? With Tory MPs due to vote on how the leadership contest should operate doubts have started to develop in the betting markets over whether the Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, will do it. For the first time since the election “was declared” punters are moving against Davis and the most popular current bet is on him not doing it. The 2005 Tory leadership race is the first one to be held since the…

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In memory of Edward Heath – Prime Minister 1970-74

In memory of Edward Heath – Prime Minister 1970-74

I cannot remember whether I had a bet on the 1970 General Election but if I did I certainly did not foresee the extraordinary victory of Edward Heath’s Conservative party. Everybody had written him off and Harold Wilson, it is said, had not even put in place the most rudimentary of removal plans in case he had to get out of Number 10. Whenever people talk about election certainties I always think of Heath’s achievement. His term in office was…

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Is this the face of a man who is on his way out?

Is this the face of a man who is on his way out?

Could Blair stay to fight another election? As the polls were closing at the Hartlepool by-election on September 30th 2004 Tony Blair issued a statement that he was about to go into hospital for a small procedure and that he would stand down as Labour leader and Prime Minister before the then next General Election but one – which is probably scheduled for 2009. The move seemed designed to deal with ongoing unpopularity following the Iraq war and to end…

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Are Howard, Hague and IDS trying to thwart Davis?

Are Howard, Hague and IDS trying to thwart Davis?

Is Liam Fox being lined up as the stop DD candidate? According to the Sunday Telegraph this morning the last three Tory leaders who failed to make it to Number 10 are considering giving their support to Liam Fox in what the paper says would be “a co-ordinated stop David Davis campaign”. Melissa Kite, the paper’s Deputy Political Editor, notes that William Hague “….. has expressed privately his admiration for Dr Fox but will demonstrate it publicly when the pair…

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