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Campaign Coundown April 11th

April 11th, 2005

REVISED

    POLITICALBETTING “BALANCE OF MONEY” prediction: Labour majority 54

One of the four spread bookmakers that are included in the daily calculation has marked Labour up sharply this morning following the latest batch of opinion polls – but this has not been followed by the others. The result is that there is no change although the average mid-point of the Labour spreads is now 350.06 seats. In order to make the prediction as accurate as possible we take the current data from Spreadfair, IG Index, Sporting Index and Tradesports.

We call this the “Balance of Money” prediction because it reflects the collective view of gamblers prepared to risk money in all four markets on what the outcome will be.

Opinion Polls: As well as the new polls covered in previous articles there’s a MORI survey in the FT today of UK finance directors. The pollster spoke to 200 of them and this was how the votes split: CON 58: LAB 26: LD 13 . A System 3 poll in Scotland has with changes on last month LAB 45 (-1): SNP 23(nc): CON 14 (-2): LD 14 (+1)

Betting Odds Main features today:-

  • Labour 1/12 on who wins most seats
  • IG Index has new spread market on how many seats will change hands outside Scotland. Current spread of 53-58 looks quite good value as a buy.
  • Spreadfair has what could be a fun market for May 5th itself – election cricket. How many seats will Labour have when the Conservative total reaches ten.
  • Commons Seat spread-betting prices

    IG IndexLAB 348-353: CON 201-206: LD 64-67: SNP 5.25-5.75: PC 4.5-5: DUP 7.7-8.2: SF 4.3-4.8: UUP 2.8 – 3.3: SDLP 1.8 -2.3: RES 0.3- 0.8: UKIP 0-0.3
    SpreadfairLAB 348.5-350.2: CON 203- 204.5: LD 65.1 – 65.3: SNP 5.3 –5.6: PC 4.4 – 4.6: UKIP 0.1 – 0.3

    A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here.

    Mike Smithson






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