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Month: April 2005

Balance of Money Predictions – April 30

Balance of Money Predictions – April 30

Predicted Labour majority 78 seat (nc) Predicted vote shares LAB 37.3 ( -0.3) : CON 33.6 (+0.2): LD 22 (+0.1) The spread markets are based on all-UK figures while the opinion polls report their figures on a GB basis excluding Northern Ireland and the latter are roughly 0.97 of the former. So a Labour spread of 37-37.5% equates roughly to 38.1%-38.6% when comparing with an opinion poll. The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers…

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The Sunday Poll Rush

The Sunday Poll Rush

First up tonight is Communicate Research in the Indpendent on Sunday which has LAB 39 (-1): CON 31 (-4): LD 23 (+5). Next Thursday will be the first time CR has been tested against real results. It remains to be seen whether it can perform better than the pollster the Indy on Sunday used four years ago, Rasmussen, which with its automated phone methodology was the only firm to get the Tories right and got the Labour margin within 2%….

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Betting for and against the opinion polls

Betting for and against the opinion polls

Betting on votes – not seats With Labour’s victory being almost as big a certainty as Sunderland South being the first seat to declare there’s increasing interest in the party vote share markets where you do not have to factor in the complicated and varied considerations about how the seats will divide. And it is here that you can bet for or against the findings of specific opinion pollsters. If you think that YouGov are predicting this one best then…

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Is Labour’s “Vote Kennedy – Get Howard” warning true?

Is Labour’s “Vote Kennedy – Get Howard” warning true?

Could the small circulation Indy have an impact? With the Independent looking set to endorse the Lib Dems on Thursday today’s splash lead seeks to undermine Labour’s core strategy for dealing with the Lib Dem threat. The above is the front page that’s in the shops this morning and might well have an influence beyond the few hundred thousand who buy the paper each day. The story is very clear and could make Labour’s task in the final few days…

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The Balance of Money Predictions – April 29

The Balance of Money Predictions – April 29

Predicted Labour majority 78 seat (+2) Predicted vote shares LAB 37.6 ( -0.1) : CON 33.4 (-0.3): LD 21.9 (+0.2) Today’s bet of the day – the 5/1 against the Tories getting most votes – has now been tightened to 7/2. The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index. Please note that the vote share markets are based…

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The money goes on Charles

The money goes on Charles

bbc Can the Lib Dems get more than 69 MPs? After a week which has seen the defection of veteran Labour MP Brian Sedgemore , the publication of the Attorney-General’s advice on the legality of the war, and the appearance of the three main party leaders on BBC’s Question Time special political gamblers have started backing the Liberal Democrats in earnest. The spread-betting price has edged up and now stands with IG Index at 66-69 seats SPREAD-BETTING EXPLAINED. For those…

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Prize worth £1,000 offered for our competition

Prize worth £1,000 offered for our competition

I was hoping that our final General Election competition would have been published yesterday but other pressures have put this back until the weekend. In the meantime Binarybet.com have told us that “we will be delighted to offer an account with £1000 cash in it to the winner of your competition. If the winner already has a Binary account, then we will deposit £1000 into it. ” Binarybet.com will be delighted to offer an account with £1000 cash in it…

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Will the final week rule hold?

Will the final week rule hold?

Can it get better for Howard in the final phase? With YouGov’s latest survey this morning showing the Tories still four points behind could there be some consolation for the Tories in the “final week rule”. This is that the party in second place in the polls at the start of the final week improves by polling day – a factor that is said to have happened in all but one election of modern times. This could be helped by…

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