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Should you bet NOW on the EU referendum result?

May 15th, 2004

eu blair
Even though the terms of the new EU constitution have still to be agreed a UK bookmaker has now opened a market on which way the country vote in the referendum that was promised by Tony Blair last month.

This seems to be totally premature. We do not know what the vote will be about, what the question will be and when the referendum will take place. The odds are not very encouraging on either side – 4/9 on “No – Reject Constitution Question” and 13/8 on “Yes – Agree To Constitution Question”.

From the bookmaker’s point of view such markets are wonderful. They get hold of punter’s money for months or even years. The only reason to bet in such a market would be if the odds look so promising that you want to get on it now. That does not seem to be the case here.

The Politicalbetting.com recommendation is stay well away for the moment.

BETTING MARKET UPDATE

William Hill has now opened a market on Blair to be prime minister before end of next general election. If you are betting against Blair then the prices seem better than on Betfair’s “Who will be Labour leader at the General Election”.

UPDATE ON JUNE 10 EURO ELECTIONS

A reader has pointed out that according to the Electoral Commission there has been a change in the way the results will be declared compared with previous UK Euro elections. This will be done by local authority area rather than by Westminster constituencies. Although this could weaken the effect that was described the party officials at each count will easily work out their own rough seat by seat break-down. The detailed information may not be as public but the vulnerable MPs will be fully aware.

LONDON MAYOR BETTING
Another reader has contacted us to state that he stands to win over £11,000 for stakes of about £1200 on Betfair if Norris wins – a series of bets he made after reading our analysis on Politicalbetting.com. He notes that a total of £57,000 has been backed on Livingstone at an average of under 1.2 – so the overall winnings on Ken in the market would be about the same – £11,000. The only difference is that the Ken backers have at risk FIFTY TIMES more money than he has. What an extraordinary variation between the two prices. We make Livingstone and Norris about even – it all depends on turnout.

Sadly the prices have moved and now Norris is at 6.2. You can get 7.5 with William Hill but they restrict you to £100. Even at these lower prices this is still a great value bet.






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