If the Democrats win the Presidency, the House and the Senate they’ll be in a position to make future elections easier

If the Democrats win the Presidency, the House and the Senate they’ll be in a position to make future elections easier

For starters Washington DC could be a state in it own right One of the oddities of US politics is that those who live in the capitol, Washington DC, are rated as second class citizens when it comes to elections. For they are unable to have voting representatives in the House and the Senate as is reflected in the slogan on car registration plates – see above. It used to be even worse than that and DC residents were not…

Read More Read More

YouGov finds that if given the chance Britain would overwhelmingly vote Trump out

YouGov finds that if given the chance Britain would overwhelmingly vote Trump out

With just six days to go until the US Election, a YouGov poll commissioned by Betfair finds 80% of those in the UK that expressed a preference would pick Biden. Just 20% would vote Trump. Trump does better with those who voted Leave in the referendum with 38% going for the incumbent. Amongst CON voters at GE2019 39% said they’d back Trump. That compares with the 99% support for Biden amongst those who voted for LAB or the LDs at…

Read More Read More

Bloomberg pumping millions into Texas and Ohio in final week dash to flip the states for Biden

Bloomberg pumping millions into Texas and Ohio in final week dash to flip the states for Biden

The Texas Tribune report above features the latest move by multi-billionaire and former White House contender, Michael Bloomberg, to help Joe Biden take Texas (38 ECVs) and Ohio (18 ECVs). The paper notes: For the most part, both Biden and President Donald Trump have avoided general election campaigning in Texas. Trump hasn’t visited the state since the summer, while Biden’s last appearance was in March. In the last month, however, Biden has sent a flurry of surrogates to the state…

Read More Read More

I’ve finally bet on Biden as next President at a 67% chance

I’ve finally bet on Biden as next President at a 67% chance

Ever since the 2020 White House Race started formally ahead of the first primary TV debates in June last year I have been very critical of Joe Biden and never thought that he would get the nomination. I wrote here many times that it was ridiculous for a man of his age to be seeking such an office and I sort of assumed that something would happen during the primary campaign that would raise doubts about him that would effectively…

Read More Read More

Why the early results on the night might be deceptive

Why the early results on the night might be deceptive

A week to go and perhaps a good moment to pass on a observation about how information might come out on election night because of the different ways that each state will out count. Interestingly there is a big divide between the must win states for Biden and the more marginal states. For the early information from the former looks set to be more negative for Biden while what was we get first from the latter group of states will…

Read More Read More

Whoops – I nearly made an elementary mistake betting on a Senate Democratic majority

Whoops – I nearly made an elementary mistake betting on a Senate Democratic majority

Flicking through the Betfair WH2020 markets a few minutes ago I was taken with the longer than evens price currently available on the Democrats winning a majority in the Senate. Given the way opinion has been going in the US over the past few weeks then this objective for the party is surely within reach and they should come out of next week’s election controlling the House, the White House and the Senate. I had got to the stage of…

Read More Read More

Trump acolyte Lindsey Graham to fall victim to the blue wave?

Trump acolyte Lindsey Graham to fall victim to the blue wave?

A value bet at the current 33% Apart from choosing the president next week there are a whole host of other contests taking place in the US and I’ve been looking at some to see if I can find interesting betting opportunities. One of the fiercest and most expensive battles is going on for the Senate seat in South Carolina where the controversial long-standing Republican, Lindsey Graham is trying to fend off a furious high budget campaign by the Democrats…

Read More Read More