Trump at a 25% chance looks value for the WH2024 GOP nomination

Trump at a 25% chance looks value for the WH2024 GOP nomination

If he is able to run then he could get it We’ve hardly referred to events in the US following the January 6th Insurrection and the inauguration of Joe Biden. From the perspective of this side of the pond things seem a lot more peaceful and without the regular stream of Tweets from the Oval Office life is getting back to some sort of normality. Biden has a very different style although he has been struggling to get big measures…

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The betting moves sharply to the Tories in Batley and Spen

The betting moves sharply to the Tories in Batley and Spen

With the less than a week to go LAB tumbles to a 22% chance in the Batley and Spen betting on a day that has seen Russia Today presenter Galloway getting increasing attention. What we do know is that Galloway is a superb self-publicist. He makes news. The big question is how effective he will be in getting LAB switchers in next week’s by-election. Paul Mason’s Tweet shows some of the efforts being made to discredit Galloway in the eyes…

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Latest Ipsos MORI vaccine polling finds confidence growing with almost all indicators better than six month ago

Latest Ipsos MORI vaccine polling finds confidence growing with almost all indicators better than six month ago

One of the things that has been impressive during the whole COVID period is how well Ipsos MORI has worked tracking attitudes and seeking to get a sense of how people have been coping. The latest round of data has been published today and the top two charts give the results with the changes on November when a similar round of questions was asked. Both sets of results seek big changes and the one that worries me is the last…

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Russia Today presenter Galloway now 11/4 to be beat LAB in Batley & Spen

Russia Today presenter Galloway now 11/4 to be beat LAB in Batley & Spen

Could the current Russia/RN crisis hurt his campaign? Next by-election up is, of course, Batley & Spen on Thursday next week and the main interest is on ex-LAB then ex-RESPECT MP, George Galloway who is a presenter on Russia Today. The Tories are odds on favourite to take the seat but a lot of interest is on Galloway who is never far from controversy and is now third favourite at 12/1 with Ladbrokes. An interesting bet is whether Galloway will…

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Steve Baker MP is right about the quarantine exemptions for UEFA officials

Steve Baker MP is right about the quarantine exemptions for UEFA officials

How can you keep the rest of us on strict lockdown? I don’t usually agree with Baker but he is clearly right here. Making any exemption because it is politically convenient is going to undermine efforts to get support for it across the community. Until now we have all be under the COVID regime and mostly this has been followed. So what if this means that Wembley loses the European final – either you have controls in place or you…

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Latest voting intention polling following last week’s by-election

Latest voting intention polling following last week’s by-election

It was inevitable given how little attention they were getting before their shock victory by some margin in C&A that the LDs were going to see something of a recovery and that is what has happened. But overall the polls are showing very different pictures of the where the Tories stand in relation to LAB. Deltapoll has the gap at 6% while Savanta puts it at 14% which would produce very different general election outcomes if that is how the…

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With just eight campaigning days to go – Tories still strong favourites to take Batley & Spen

With just eight campaigning days to go – Tories still strong favourites to take Batley & Spen

But punters got Chesham and Amersham totally wrong The chart shows the latest betting on next week’s by-election in Batley & Spen where Labour is pinning its hopes on Jo Cox’s sister to see them home in what could be a tricky contest. This isn’t helped by ex LAB and then Respect MP, George Galloway standing on an anti-Starmer platform. I’m often asked if betting markets are predictive and last Thursday underlined the fact that they can get it terribly…

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The new word that has entered the political vocabulary – UNCOALITIONABLE

The new word that has entered the political vocabulary – UNCOALITIONABLE

What has been quite remarkable is how in the space of a week the whole way we are looking at the next general election has been transformed. Last Tuesday morning nobody really doubted that the Tories would retain C&A with a clear majority and few were ready to voice doubts about BoJo’s ability to lead his party to another majority at the next election. Now after C&A things look very different and experts like John Curtice are talking about the…

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