With just over a month to go punters still confident that there’ll be a UK-EU deal

With just over a month to go punters still confident that there’ll be a UK-EU deal

Above is the market from Smarkets which, as can be seen has moved about a fair bit over the past year. This is a huge event for British politics yet it has been totally overshadowed by COVID and the US election. I think there is going to be a deal but I’m not tempted by the odds. These are the betting market rules so you know what you are risking your money on. If the UK and EU sign a…

Read More Read More

I’ve just laid Trump at an 8% chance on Betfair

I’ve just laid Trump at an 8% chance on Betfair

The Betfair next President market continues to be totally potty and over the past 24 hours we have seen Trump’s chances move from 3% to an 8% one. Quite what people are thinking who are backing Trump is hard to say. Just about all the incumbent’s efforts to declare the results a fraud have failed to get backing from within the Republican party. Based on Betfair’s rules for the market it is nigh impossible, surely, for anyone else to be…

Read More Read More

Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings.

Hatchings, Matchings and Dispatchings.

2020 will be an unlamented year, known for a long time as the year of the coronavirus. Hopefully 2021 will be better, if the various vaccines and Brexit permit, and some resurgence of normal activity returns. Indeed just as the excesses of the roaring Twenties followed the Spanish Flu, we may well see a year of hedonistic excess. I do not wish to dwell long on the “excess deaths”, a subject thrashed over fairly heavily by both amateur and professional…

Read More Read More

The Betfair next president market tops £1.016 BILLION of matched bets yet still it remains open

The Betfair next president market tops £1.016 BILLION of matched bets yet still it remains open

The recounts in the marginal states have failed to make much difference This is getting ridiculous. Betfair has yet to close its next President market where the the rules state that “This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election.“ This is not a market on who becomes the next president to be sworn in on January 20th but who, after the November 3rd elections, was…

Read More Read More

In other news

In other news

What else has been happening recently that deserves more attention than it is getting? We don’t need to worry about public sector debt – yet During the Covid era, Britain’s public sector debt has risen at a giddying rate.  Public sector net borrowing is estimated to have been £22.3 billion in October 2020, £10.8 billion more than in October 2019, which is both the highest October borrowing and the sixth-highest borrowing in any month since monthly records began in 1993. …

Read More Read More

In The Bleak Midwinter

In The Bleak Midwinter

“Tis the season to be jolly careful”. The Prime Minister’s default is always to go for the quip or memorable phrase. It is infuriating when so much is at stake. The other clear message is: don’t go to a restaurant or pub, unless you are on your own or with your family. If your son comes home from university, you are two households and on no account must you go out for a meal together. But you can go to…

Read More Read More

As time runs out in the Brexit transition YouGov has “Brexit Wrong” once again with a double digit lead

As time runs out in the Brexit transition YouGov has “Brexit Wrong” once again with a double digit lead

And LAB will now back a deal in the Commons With things being dominated by the American presidential election we have hardly looked at the ongoing effort by the government to come to an agreement before the the end of the Brexit transition at the on New Year’s Eve. If that doesn’t happen the UK has no deal and is in very uncertain territory. In a new move tonight LAB has said that it will back the deal that emerges…

Read More Read More