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The Johnson/Cummings power grab is in danger of undermining democracy

20/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The above Tweet sets out clearly and succinctly how the Johnson/Cummings team is seeking to undermine many bodies and to bring power presumably, to Dom itself. This is the man, of course, who at the height of the pandemic in April decided that the rules didn’t apply to him and when all was revealed Johnson failed to do anything about it. Clearly with an 80+ majority the government is in a strong position but I just wonder how Tory back…

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Unlike WH2016 Trump’s opponent this time has strong positive favourability ratings

20/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

So far during this campaign PB has spent a lot of time looking at the voting intention polls but this is the first header on what is arguably a better indicator, the leader ratings for Trump and Biden. The RCP chart shows the gap between the net ratings that Biden is enjoying on favourability compared with those that that Trump is getting. The latest average has Trump on 54.4% unfavourable and 43.1% favourable. This compares with Biden who is getting…

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Is it 1948 redux? A lesson from history.

20/10/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Last Wednesday, I was lucky enough to join Iain Martin of Reaction’s hour-long video chat with historian and Stanford university fellow Niall Ferguson. As ever with Ferguson it was an erudite and illuminating session, ranging across the presidential election, Trump’s four years, the Covid response, Scottish politics and China. One of his many riffs though struck me hard: is this presidential election about to be 1948 again? Trump is done according to everyone who is anyone in America, reported the…

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What is Sunak up to?

19/10/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

Sunak is seen as a possible successor should Boris decide to spend more time painting buses (assuming he’s not pushed under one first). Little wonder: a fresh face, unflustered, articulate and brilliant at PR, with a friendly nickname already (“Mr Yorkshire Tea”). Importantly, he has been in charge of the one government department which has behaved competently during the Covid crisis. The original plan may not have been adequate but Sunak was able to respond to concerns quickly, alter course…

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Trump making surprise recovery in the WH2020 betting even though most pollsters have double digit Biden leads

19/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If you have been following WH2020 polling you’ll be aware that the numbers are still very much with Biden at both a national and a state level. But this is not being reflected in the current betting. What is the biggest political gambling event of all time as is shown in the Smarkets chart above and as can be seen the gap is closing. Quite what is driving this is hard to say but I think Paul Krishnamurty’s explanation in…

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The Battle of Trafalgar

18/10/2020 robert Comments 0 Comment

That sleepy #englishbulldog pictured in the previous retweet, is none other than the Trafalgar Group’s mascot “Horatio” Named of course after the Hero of the battle of Trafalgar, Lord Admiral Horatio Nelson. Since we are a polling firm, he goes by “Ratio”. pic.twitter.com/Kj5PhmqheH — The Trafalgar Group (@trafalgar_group) August 8, 2020 I spent 30 minutes on the phone this morning with Robert Cahaly, the Head of The Trafalgar Group which PBers will recall as the pollster who called Michigan, Pennyslvania…

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Early voting in the second biggest state now at 43.7% of the 2016 total – and there’s still more than two weeks to go

18/10/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Working out Covid-19 and the political classes

18/10/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Let’s step outside the Westminster bubble. What is really exercising people just now? A good way of judging this is to look at what petitions are being put into Parliament. And indeed, one petition has caught on this week like wildfire, with 358,000 signatures at the time of writing (10am on Saturday), comfortably the petition with the most signatories. No, it’s not Marcus Rashford’s petition. It’s a politely-worded request to keep gyms open should Covid-19 cases spike. To set this in context, it has…

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