For the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind

For the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind

It was going to come sometime that with the PM’s awful ratings collapse we would at some stage see his party fall behind in the voting intention polling. Well that has happened tonight from Opinium. These are the numbers for the main two parties with changes on a fortnight ago. Labour 42% (+3%) Conservative 39% (-3%) Starmer takes 4% lead over Johnson as Best PM with Johnson 32% -3 Starmer 36% +3. Other figures are bad for the blue team…

Read More Read More

The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005

The shifting tides: voting trends since 2005

What were you doing in 2005?  At the time of the 2005 general election I was at a 40th birthday party in Northern Ireland (“I like this place: they take their politics seriously”, a Kenyan friend said, approvingly looking at all the posters).  Tony Blair had just won a third term for Labour with a majority of 66.   In the intervening period, we have had four further general elections and the political landscape has been transformed.  Last year Boris Johnson…

Read More Read More

2022 for Johnson’s departure looks good value at up to 9/1

2022 for Johnson’s departure looks good value at up to 9/1

Tory MPs often act, but rarely quickly Boris is gone. Not in body, obviously. The frequently dishevelled occupant of Number 10 remains in post and will in all likelihood be there for some time to come yet. No, it’s the spirit which has run dry: that bundle of energy and character which enabled him to become a first-name-only politician in the first place. If there was one iconic image of the man before he became PM, it was him dangling…

Read More Read More

Rishi Sunak has highest satisfaction ratings for a Chancellor since Healey in 1978

Rishi Sunak has highest satisfaction ratings for a Chancellor since Healey in 1978

At some stage, surely, things will change for the man now favourite for next PM Rishi Sunak remains popular with the British public according to the September Ipsos MORI Political Monitor. The poll, conducted before the latest announcement of the Job Support Scheme on Thursday, reveals that two-thirds (64%) say they are satisfied with the way he is doing his job as Chancellor, up from 45% in March – one in five (21%) are dissatisfied. This is the best score…

Read More Read More

A Personal View of Sunak’s plans from a Lake District Pub

A Personal View of Sunak’s plans from a Lake District Pub

Let me be blunt. Sunak’s package does not help the hospitality sector, certainly not its small businesses. Perhaps he never intended to. Perhaps he has taken the view that the Eat Out to Help Out scheme, VAT cut (of no use to those on the fixed rate scheme) and other help was enough. Or that there is not enough money left. Or that it does not matter – being unskilled, low value and unnecessary in a post-Covid world. If this…

Read More Read More

Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos MORI podcast: The new COVID regulations + Starmer takes to the stage

Keiran Pedley’s Ipsos MORI podcast: The new COVID regulations + Starmer takes to the stage

On this week’s Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Katy Balls, Deputy Political Editor of The Spectator and Ben Walker, Data Journalist at the New Statesman and founder of the Britain Elects website. The team discuss the fallout from new COVID restrictions announced by the government this week – and what the public think of them as well as reaction to Keir Starmer’s first conference speech as Labour leader and how he polls versus Prime…

Read More Read More

On Rishi’s big day he just fails to hold on as “next PM” betting favourite

On Rishi’s big day he just fails to hold on as “next PM” betting favourite

It has been another big day for Chancellor Rishi Sunak as he’s announced his latest Job Support Scheme designed to top up wages of workers who have not been able to return to the work full time due to COVID19. He’s become probably the most well known and certainly the most popular member of Johnson’s cabinet and remains the leading Tory in the betting to be the next PM. This is a strange market because everything depends on the timing…

Read More Read More

Majority of Brits support the ‘Rule of Six’ but few are ready to be “snitchers”

Majority of Brits support the ‘Rule of Six’ but few are ready to be “snitchers”

A new survey by Ipsos MORI finds 60% of Britons support that the ‘rule of six’, which makes it illegal for more than 6 people to meet, in order to control the spread of coronavirus. Less than 1 in 5 oppose the new rule (17%). However, despite government requests for people to inform the authorities if they see someone breaking the rule, few believe they are likely to do so. Seven in 10 (70%) say it is unlikely that they…

Read More Read More