In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year

In the betting the money goes on Starmer going before the end of next year

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The chart shows the latest Smarkets betting on Starmer’s exit date. As can be seen this was a 53% chance only yesterday and it has now moved to a 67% one. Clearly the former DPP has been struggling and today’s results make his position even harder. I was very struck by his manner during post-results press conference this afternoon. He looked shattered. He’s not helped by the social media onslaught by backers of Corbyn who seemed to be relishing the…

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It looks like there’ll be more celebrations like this over the next three days

It looks like there’ll be more celebrations like this over the next three days

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A massive night to the Tories and a huge headache for Starmer After the overnight results in the Hartlepool by-election and several local council elections, things look very good for the Tories in the first set of elections since the general election. The Hartlepool by-election outcome had been widely predicted by the polling but the gap was even bigger. Survation’s final poll had the Tories winning by 17% while the actual result had the party winning by a 23.2% margin….

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The Tories look set to take Hartlepool with a big margin

The Tories look set to take Hartlepool with a big margin

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And LAB is getting hammered in the locals All the signs are that Hartlepool is going blue by some margin and the latest news is that turnout is 42.8%. Elsewhere LAB has been seeing a huge number of council seat losses to the Tories but its performance is better in the results we have seen so far from the big cities. The main trend is that the UKIP vote from last time is almost all going to the Tories so…

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Why the likely CON win in Hartlepool won’t be as big a deal as some are saying

Why the likely CON win in Hartlepool won’t be as big a deal as some are saying

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There’s a good by James Johnson in the Times on why the likely CON victory tonight in Hartlepool won’t be as dramatic as it sounds. He argues: …the constituency has a uniquely large Brexit Party vote from 2019. Looking just at seats where the Conservatives were in second place, this was the largest in the country — and the third-largest overall. It is one of only five of 650 seats where the Brexit Party share was above 20 per cent. …That…

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And for election day – The Uncultured Mr Maslow

And for election day – The Uncultured Mr Maslow

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Home ownership – the issue that could eventually bring the government down? So, in the good old days there was a Left Wing party (which emphasised government action to minimise income differentials) and a Right Wing party (who preferred a less active state). But then a few things changed. Firstly, there was a (perhaps temporary) consensus about economics and the role of the state. And then there was “the culture wars”. Simply, (and completely simplifying) this was the idea that…

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