The New York Times reporting that Biden’s VP pick could be announced today or tomorrow

August 11th, 2020

Rice becomes favourite for the first time

follow url Tuesday’s New York Times is reporting that Biden’s announcement of who will be on the ticket with him is imminent and could be today or tomorrow. Quite when or how we don’t know but as as the paper is reporting Biden has not been known for his punctuality so far in the presidential race and the timeline could well slip again.

click here The betting, as the chart shows, has got tighter as news of an early development became known but I don’t think we can read too much into that. The strengths of the main contenders have not changed.

click Given Biden’s age the chances of his VP becoming president must be much higher than normal and the “winner” is likely to stand a good chance of getting the nomination for President at WH2024.

Mike Smithson Posted in America, WHITE HOUSE RACE Tramadol Buyers | No Comments »


Biden’s VP pick – the latest betting and trend chart

August 10th, 2020

The decision has to come this week

Can You Purchase Tramadol Online Over the next few days expect to see a lot more activity on the Biden VP pick market. This is a very hard one to call because there is only one voter -Biden himself and this is all about trying to read his mind and decide which of those said to be in the running best fit his needs.

follow So what might appear logical to punters might not be that which find favour with Biden himself whose overwhelming priority is to be beat Trump and become the next POTUS.

Tramadol To Buy Online Uk On paper Californian Senator Kamala Harris looks a good pick but there are reasons to doubt whether the personal chemistry is there. Harris’s big moment in the primary campaign was a highly personal attack on Biden himself which for a time put her up to favourite for the nomination.

watch Susan Rice, who has never fought an election, is favoured because she is know to have worked very closely with Biden during the eight years of the Obama administration. Will she be the one to pass the “gets on best with Joe test”?

By Tramadol Online Whitmer has come into the frame in recent days following reports of a secret special charter flight she made the weekend before last from Michigan to Wilmington Delaware where Biden lives.

go to site I’ve now bottled it in my betting and gone “all green on Betfair” – so I win whatever. I had been taking the view that Harris was not going to be the one.

Mike Smithson

Buy Cheap Tramadol Online Cod Posted in America, Betting enter | No Comments »


Biden’s answer to those raising questions about his age – get quizzed by Fox News WHILE pedalling on his bike

August 10th, 2020

Online Doctor To Prescribe Tramadol

The polls maybe narrowing a touch but he’s still got a big lead Probably the biggest question over Joe Biden’s WH2020 bid and his greatest vulnerability is his age. If he does win on November 3rd he will be 78 years old on the day of inauguration on January 20th next year. Already Trump, four years his junior at 74, is using this to to attack the Democratic presumptive nominee and make not so subtle suggestions that Biden might have dementia.

Tramadol Pet Meds Online So as we wait for Biden to announce who will be with him on the ticket in November his team took the opportunity to create what I assume was a completely contrived event above of which had him being filmed while out peddling on his bike.

go here Get Tramadol Prescription Online One thing’s for sure – you cannot envisage Trump doing anything like that. The message from Team Biden is loud and clear – Joe was able to do this while at the same respond with what was obviously a joke answer suggesting surely that his mind is working OK. All this makes his VP pick much more important than usual and over that he is taking his time. This is entirely his personal decision and the last thing he wants to do is make a move that impacts on the current positive narrative.

enter Since effectively winning the nomination in March Biden’s polling position has remained pretty solid at about 50%. Trump has found it difficult getting above 45% and the current average gap is about 7.8%. This puts Biden in a better position than Hillary Clinton at the same stage four years ago. A Politicalwire analysis has this:

go to link Of the voters that didn’t like either Trump or Clinton in 2016, the exit polls showed Trump winning them 47% to 30%. But that’s not happening this time. Polls show Biden with a huge lead over Trump among these voters, 55% to 21%. But Trump is going to battle hard to keep his job and his opponents are not complacent. In the betting Biden is rated as a 59% chance.

Mike Smithson

source site Posted in America, Betting, Donald Trump | No Comments »


The Tories are set to be hoist by their own petard as ‘Labour uses Tories’ IRA jibe to target Lady Brexit, Claire Fox.’

August 9th, 2020

Get Tramadol Prescription Online Today’s Sunday Times has an intriguing story which shows why Sir Keir Starmer is an automatic improvement on Corbyn, he doesn’t have the baggage that Corbyn has.

Order Tramadol With Paypal Labour is set to weaponise Boris Johnson’s decision to award a peerage to a controversial former Brexit Party MEP who has been accused of defending the IRA.

Order Tramadol Cod Overnight Claire Fox, 60, who was a member of a far-left party that defended the IRA’s terrorist attack in Warrington in 1993, will be used in anti-Tory campaign literature by the Labour Party. Last night an advert was being circulated online among Labour groups that featured an image of Fox and Johnson under the banner: “What does Boris Johnson offer a defender of the IRA? He put her in the House of Lords.”

follow Labour, whose former leader Jeremy Corbyn was criticised for being an IRA sympathiser, will attempt to turn the tables on the Tories amid a backlash against the appointment last month.

The party intends to exploit the controversy in marginal northern seats in the “red wall” as well as those in the London commuter belt.

The development comes as Lord Tebbit, who was seriously injured in the Brighton hotel bombing of 1984 and whose wife Margaret was left paralysed, condemned the prime minister’s decision.

The former Tory cabinet minister said he was “surprised” by the appointment, which came just days after the 30th anniversary of the murder of Ian Gow, the Conservative minister and close ally of Margaret Thatcher who was killed by a bomb placed under his car outside his home in the East Sussex village of Hankham.

Tebbit added: “I don’t know what got into Boris Johnson’s mind about it. I have got too many friends who were murdered and I think of Ian Gow and Airey Neave [killed in a car bomb attack at the House of Commons in 1979] and, of course, I wake up to see my wife every day who was so seriously injured.”

Lord Lexden, the Tory peer and official Conservative Party historian, accused Johnson of showing “indifference to the memory of all those who died” in the atrocities, including prominent members of the Conservative Party, who “paid the ultimate price”.

I’d hate to be a Tory MP in places like Guildford, Warrington, the West Midlands, and other places that were scarred by IRA attacks during the troubles. A savvy Labour party (and others opponents of the Tories) will be able to use appointments like this hurt the Tories. This appointment hurts the Tories a lot and gains them very little. As we saw with Corbyn these things have a tendency influence the views of the voters.

Lord knows what Lady Thatcher would have made of the ennobling of Claire Fox. If you want to know why people are so enraged at the ennobling of Claire Fox this article and this article will give you an idea.

Tramadol Order Online TSE


An opportunity for Sir Keir to set the agenda

August 9th, 2020

Like David Herdson I do agree Sir Keir Starmer isn’t setting the agenda but the next week certainly presents him with an opportunity to do so. The Guardian reports that

Nearly 40% of A-level grades submitted by teachers are set to be downgraded when exam results in England are published next week, the Guardian has learned, as criticism intensifies of this year’s makeshift results.

Analysis of the algorithm and data used by the exam regulator Ofqual to distribute grades after the cancellation of exams amid the coronavirus pandemic found that a net 39% of assessments of A-level grades by teachers are likely to be adjusted down before students receive their results.

That would mean nearly 300,000 A-levels issued are lower than the teacher assessment of the more than 730,000 A-level entries in England this summer.

Including GCSEs, which are expected to have a similar downgrade rate, close to a net 2m teacher assessments will be adjusted downwards and in many cases ignored completely.

There was uproar in Scotland this week when the exams authority rejected nearly 124,000 grade recommendations from teachers – a quarter of the total – but unlike in Scotland, English pupils are barred from appealing against their results on academic grounds.

Grades will instead be issued according to Ofqual’s statistical model, relying on a school’s recent exam history and each pupil’s previous exam results, to replace the exams scrapped by the government after schools were closed because of the coronavirus lockdown.

Those most at risk of receiving revised grades appear to be students on the border between B and C grades, and between C and D grades, and pupils at comprehensive schools with wide variations in attainment or patchy outcomes in courses over the three previous years of data that Ofqual is using to cap individual school results.

Teachers will still have a significant influence on how grades are distributed in each school, having compiled the rankings that will determine which pupils receive the final grades allocated by Ofqual for their course.

Headteachers and exam officials in England say they fear a storm of controversy even worse than that which has engulfed Scotland, where a quarter of teacher predictions were adjusted by the Scottish Qualifications Authority.

Experts say that as Ofqual has barred individual pupils from appealing against their grades on academic grounds, families should not waste time complaining but instead contact college or university admissions offices to confirm their places in the event of unexpectedly poor grades.

Tim Oates, group director of research and development at the exam board Cambridge Assessment, said: “Grades have been awarded this year by combining lots of data, including the rank order and the grades submitted by teachers. We have seen from Scotland’s press coverage that it’s all too easy to fixate on the difference between the teacher-assessed grades and the final grades. But it’s a misleading distraction and misinforms the public. The teacher grades were an important part of the process but always only going to be a part.

“On results day, energy should be channelled into how each young person can progress swiftly with what they have been awarded, rather than time lost on agonising over an apparently controversial but fundamentally misleading difference between teacher grades and final grades.”

Statisticians have criticised Ofqual’s algorithm, saying it does not have sufficient data to award grades fairly to most state schools in England, because of wide variations in results within schools and between years.

The Royal Statistical Society has called for an urgent review of the statistical procedures used in England and Scotland, to be carried out by the UK Statistics Authority. “This should consider both the substantive issues of the data used and the adjustment algorithms of the various nations, but also whether greater transparency would have been possible and beneficial,” the society said.

Huy Duong, the parent of an A-level candidate and a former medical statistician, said he has analysed Ofqual’s published data and comments to calculate that 39% of grades between A* and D will be lower than the teacher assessments. Duong’s findings were privately confirmed to the Guardian by exam officials.

As Lord Falconer in his tweet above this has the potential to become very bad for Boris Johnson. We saw in Scotland where a similar thing happened the media will be full of real life examples of working class children in England who have been penalised by this.

Sir Keir should be able to dominate the agenda and possibly frame it as an us versus them issue, it is something the old Etonian Boris Johnson may be vulnerable on. Given the demographics of the country I have a very strong hunch that this may end up disproportionately impacting children in the ‘Red Wall’ seats.

I strongly and passionately believe that a good eduction sets you up for life so not only is it the right thing to do politically it is also the right thing morally for Sir Keir to raise. It might even help improve in the position in Scotland as the today’s front pages in Scotland show it is an issue that hasn’t gone away.

But back to other parts of Britain, with the Education Secretary being the professional Frank Spencer impersonator Gavin Williamson so if Sir Keir Starmer cannot set the agenda and cause the government difficulties on this issue then I expect Starmer will ultimately prove to be an unsuccessful Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.

get link TSE


Labour seems to have forgotten how to ‘do’ Opposition

August 8th, 2020

Governments-in-waiting set the agenda

Ed Miliband is unfairly maligned. It’s true that he couldn’t eat a bacon sandwich gracefully. It’s also true that he was always a bit of a wonk and, in the testosterone-fuelled world of Westminster and electoral politics, a bit beta. Even now, his brother is shorter odds to be next Labour leader than he is (50/1 and 80/1, respectively), despite his not having been an MP for seven years, while Ed is once again in the Shadow Cabinet, albeit invisibly so.

All the same, when the younger Miliband led Labour, his party was ahead in the polls for about four years, sometimes by double figures for prolonged periods. Granted, it wasn’t ahead when it really mattered in 2015 and Labour went backwards in seats in that election (mainly due to Scotland), and part of that must be down to him but for all that, his leadership was the last time that Labour did opposition politics properly.

It’s easy to write off the Corbyn years as an aberration; a period in which policies were designed for the conference hall rather than the electorate, and a rag-bag bunch for former fringe members grabbed control of the party machine and inevitably crashed it. What is pertinent now though is that Labour still isn’t doing opposition affectively.

Eight months after the 2019 election, Labour has yet to score a single lead in any opinion poll. If anything, after a period of relatively close shares, the Tory lead is now edging out again. By contrast, Miliband recorded Labour’s first lead within five months and by eight months was consistently ahead. Why?

Put simply, the government is controlling the political agenda. The response to Covid-19 has inevitably dominated the government’s actions almost since it was elected and that’s the kind of thing that goes above partisan knockabout but that’s no reason not for the usual rules of government-and-opposition to apply. (That said, though the Brexit transition is still due to end in less than five months – the extension clause was eschewed – and there is, as yet, no deal – that issue won’t go away.)

Effective oppositions set the terms of political debate. Labour did it in the mid-1990s, when they portrayed Major’s government as weak and beset by sleaze. Cameron did it to Brown, by laying the economic narrative of not having fixed the roof while the sun was shining, which established the ground rules for both the 2010 and 2015 elections.

They do so by establishing in the public mind a few basic themes, which are backed up by enough evidence to make them clearly credible, and then tying pretty much every story that they run with into one or more of them – and then repeating them again and again, until people are bored of them – and then repeating them some more. That’s how people remember them. Only by doing so do the campaigns take on a life of their own and the media (and, now, social media) will take those themes up and run with them too. Starmer’s Labour has completely failed to do this.

The contrast with Miliband and those before him is probably not coincidental. Like Corbyn, Starmer is not a typical political, although whereas Corbyn was always an activist rather than a greasy-pole climber, Starmer didn’t become an MP until he was 52 and had a very successful career outside party politics beforehand. What they do have in common is that they’ve never really been involved in the nuts and bolts of successful day-to-day opposition politics. And it shows.

So, what should he be doing? Firstly, Labour needs to be stating not just that things are a mess but why the government is at fault for them being a mess. Just because Britain has one of the worst excess death figures from Covid-19 and one of the deeper recessions, that doesn’t mean people will necessarily blame the government. Many countries are suffering and the public in general does not go in for detailed comparative analysis. Labour – both directly and through its allies in the media – need to be making the point that things could have been much better

That ties in to what ought to be the first of two overriding themes: you don’t know what you’re doing. That the government is incompetent ought to be an easy sell, although low general expectations do bring their own problems: if many members of the public expect all governments to be a bit rubbish, the opposition needs to establish why this one is particularly poor and why they’d be better. Even so, U-turns, comparative failures and so on ought to make that narrative easy.

Purchase Tramadol Overnight And secondly – but arguably an even more potent theme – should be “one rule for them, one for you”. Hypocrisy and entitlement is rightly viewed dimly by the public, and there are so many offerings that this government is making that could feed into that picture, yet Labour’s either letting them go entirely or is addressing them on a case-by-case basis without building the bigger picture.

In short, Labour is going wrong by being far too passive and far too reactive to events. It’s fine to be supportive of the government where circumstances demand it but there’s no reason why that should undermine the more general criticisms. Until Labour learns that lesson, it will make precious little headway.

David Herdson


Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor who got under Trump’s skin, moves up sharply in the Biden VP pick betting

August 8th, 2020

Punters rush to bet on her after reports of secret face to face meeting with Biden

In the early days of the Biden VP pick saga Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of the highly marginal state of Michigan, was one of the early favourites. Her state has been one of the worst hit by the pandemic and there was a highly public clash between her and the President after she was said not to have shown enough gratitude to Trump for his assistance.

Since then all has been quiet on her front until the past few hours ago when reports emerged of a secret meeting she had with the presumptive nominee. CNN and others are reporting that “Flight records show a charter plane left Lansing’s Capital Region International Airport at 5:33 p.m. Sunday for Delaware Coastal Airport and returned at 11:16 p.m. that same night.”

Delaware, of course, is the home and base of Biden and very few of the names being considered for the job have had a face to meetings with the man himself.

Just to say that reports of secret charter flights like this are very much a feature of the VP pick process. Those who remember WH2008 will recall the secret flights from Alaska for Sarah Palin to meet John McCain and sharp eyed observers keep a careful eye on the records of charter planes.

watch What is clear is that a VP race thought to be confined to Harris and Rice has another serious contender – someone who has had direct experience dealing with COVID19 which is overwhelmingly the main issue. Whitmer can attack Trump’s record in a way that few others are able to do.

Given how imminent the VP announcement is then Whitmer has got to be seen now as a very serious contender. She’s worth a punt. At 0400 GMT she was an 11% chance on Betfair.

Mike Smithson


Just a year and a bit after becoming PM Johnson finds him trailing in YouGov’s “Best PM” polling

August 7th, 2020

But the same poll has the Tories 6% ahead

One of the things about this regular polling question on who people would prefer as PM is that the incumbent generally gets a huge boost and it is only very rare that we have a finding like that from YouGov today which puts the LOTO in the top slot.

To analyse what has happened I thought it might be useful to put the crossheads into to a chart as shown above and one thing that is happening is that while 4% of Labour voters from GE2019 choose Boris 8% of Tory voters from that election go for Starmer.

The LAB leader seems to be doing better with men than women while the socio-economic group split has Johnson doing particularly well amongst C2DEs but trailing amongst ABCs ones.

As you’d expect remainers go more for Starmer while leavers are with Johnson.

Whatever this is not a good place for Johnson to be.

Mike Smithson