LAB to get a poll lead before Oct 12th – new betting market

LAB to get a poll lead before Oct 12th – new betting market

One of the hard things about running a website about political betting is that for large parts of each year there is nothing to bet on which will be resolved within a week or so. I am sure that Shadsy, ex-political man at Ladbrokes who is now with Smarkets, feels the same and it is no surprise that we have seen an uptick in activity with his new firm since his arrival. A recent Smarkets market was on whether LAB…

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Can anyone explain the weird politics of mask-wearing?

Can anyone explain the weird politics of mask-wearing?

Above is a screenshot of this week’s PMQs and one thing stands out. On the government benches hardly any MP is wearing a mask while amongst opposition party MPs the vast majority are. This week has been the first since the pandemic began when the previous social distancing rules were relaxed and many more MPs were packed into the chamber. Given what we know about COVID being close to other people indoors could be dangerous and you wear masks not…

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Watermelons or Green perennials: Are the Greens going anywhere?

Watermelons or Green perennials: Are the Greens going anywhere?

The Greens have a leadership election on, in fact they are already counting the votes. Most of the voting was online, so the winner is probably already known to the IT guy at Green Party HQ. With the official announcement waiting for the final postal votes to arrive, the leadership prospects have plenty of time to ponder: Will the Greens ever gain supporters over an election campaign? Six months ahead of the 2019 election the Greens were polling roughly 5%,…

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That YouGov LAB lead poll is increasingly looking like an outlier

That YouGov LAB lead poll is increasingly looking like an outlier

Back in mid July I wrote here that backing LAB to get a poll lead during the remaining part of 2021 looked like a good bet. First amongst my reason was there was always the possibility of an outlier. The context for the post was a then new Smarkets market on when Labour would next get a poll lead. At the time I was flush with my winnings on the LDs in the Chesham and Amersham by-election and placed what…

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The front pages that should frighten ministers

The front pages that should frighten ministers

Remember the polls in September 2000 Dramatic things can happen politically when motorists are unable to buy the precious liquid that enables their cars to move. September 2000 was a case in point when after years of Blair’s LAB totally dominating politics there was the brief period when Hague’s Tories found themselves in the lead. It didn’t last – the dispute got settled and we could fill up our cars again. I am not saying this will happen now and…

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BoJo would find it challenging facing Angela Rayner

BoJo would find it challenging facing Angela Rayner

I just wonder whether a LAB leadership contest could be much closer than we think. Ahead of the party conference Starmer is proposing a change in the leadership election rules and prominent figures like Sadiq Khan have come out against. If Starmer fails to get this through he would look even more weakened than he does at the moment. By associating himself so closely on the rule change it could make the conference vote less about the issue itself but…

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The big win for Johnson was getting his 90 minutes in the Oval Office

The big win for Johnson was getting his 90 minutes in the Oval Office

The important thing for Johnson on his US trip was that unlike many other foreign leaders he had his 90 minutes in the Oval Office with Biden. Even though the US is not quite as powerful as it was pictures like the one above are much treasured by foreign leaders. In terms of policy the big development this week is Biden’s lifting of the ban from November of UK and EU citizens being able to enter the US. This has…

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The US’s 2nd septuagenarian President has ratings as bad as the first

The US’s 2nd septuagenarian President has ratings as bad as the first

Don and Joe – the last oldie nominees? The latest monthly Gallup poll with is Presdiential approval ratings out and the trend is shown in the chart above. The firm makes the following observation: Except for Donald Trump, every U.S. president since Harry Truman has enjoyed a honeymoon period characterized by above-average approval ratings upon taking office. Biden’s recent slides in approval put him in the company of Trump and Bill Clinton, whose ratings were at or below Biden’s current 43% at some…

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