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The above polling table from Fivethirtyeight features the most recent generic voting intentions for the November midterm elections in the US and gives an initial indication of how the Supreme Court’s decision of Rowe v Wade is impacting on voters. Quite simply before last week’s announcement, the Republicans had been enjoying a reasonable lead. The most recent polls now have the Democrats ahead. This is early days and we need to see much more polling but the first Tuesday in…

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With the Telegraph reporting that three CON MPs are in active discussion about crossing the floor to join LAB the above bet from Smarkets looks might be value. According to the paper: Labour sources told The Telegraph that the three male Conservatives, first elected in 2019, have entered formal discussions about crossing the floor to join Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Those familiar with discussions said the MPs had slim majorities in Red Wall areas in the North that have historically…

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There has been a big move in the betting on who will win the 2024 White House race. The controversial Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, has now become the favourite pushing out Trump. He’s been helped by an extensive profile which has just been published by the New Yorker and this from the Daily Beast gives a summary of his approach. DeSantis’ opposition to vaccine mandates, for example, included signing legislation “telling companies that they were not free to decide…

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LD voters don’t automatically make LAB their 2nd pref Inevitably after elections of all sorts there are calls for a progressive alliance to be created. The proponents want an arrangement whereby two of Lib Dem, Green or Labour parties in a specific election stand aside so that the vote of the “progressive” can be maximised. The only problem is that this assumes that LD voters would automatically make LAB their second preference. This is simply not the case as shown…

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At the next general election which will happen in the next couple of years, the incumbent Tory Party will be facing two very different factions and this was seen in last week’s by-elections. First there will be straight battles with LAB to retain many of the seats won by the Tories in December 2019. Second, there will be those seats where the LDs now fancy their chances following three major gains from CON in just over a year. This includes…

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Prior to the result in Tiverton & Honiton YouGov published the above polling analysis about the potential Tory losses in the South West of the United Kingdom and the result from Tiverton & Honiton will only exacerbate Boris Johnson’s problems. It isn’t unkind nor unfair to describe the current cabinet is a cabinet of political eunuchs but if the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg and George Eustice start worrying about losing their seats then they might force Boris Johnson, after all…

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Whilst replacing Boris Johnson as Tory leader is likely to improve the Tory performance in the polls (unless they replace him with the ludicrous popinjay Jacob Rees-Mogg or the ghastly Priti Patel) however they if the party replaces him with someone more palatable to the country then that will not be enough to win the next election. The new leader will also need some new policies, given the prevailing economic headwinds there may well be very little room for them…

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