What are we to make of reports that he might?

Partly because I’m writing regularly on the 2012 White House race for the Telegraph I’m being contacted a lot by Ron Paul supporters who believe that there man will be in a strong position at the Republican National Convention in Tampa at the end of August.

First they are saying ignore the regular delegate counts put out by the media – these are only half the story. For over the past months bands of Paul backers have been using the procedures of the district and state parties to get themselves elected as delegates to Tampa.

Even many of those delegates notionally bound to Romney are Paul activists.

Thus in Mitt’s home state of Massachusetts many of the ex-governor’s own nominations for convention places didn’t get selected losing out to Paul team.

What are they going to do when the convention comes to vote?

The assumption has been that in the election in Tampa to choose the White House nominee they are bound, at least, to vote for Mitt on the first ballot. Not so if this article is to be believed. There’s a legal argument going on that they could vote for Paul on the first ballot.

If you a Romney backer, like me read the article.

This might not be as straightforward as it seems.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

YouGov

The above is a list of all the post-general election findings to YouGov’s forced choice question which for years I have regarded as an equal if not better pointer to election outcomes than the standard voting intention polling.

Its strength is that it combines party allegiance and views of the leaders with what people would most like to see happen. It is also a possible pointer to potential tactical voting.

Unfortunately YouGov has only asked it twice this year but the contrast between the January and May figures is very telling.

Back in 2011 when Labour started to build up voting intention leads many blue backers took some consolation from the regular findings.

The view then that whatever the voting numbers Ed Miliband was sufficiently unpopular for a red victory to appear remote.

That has changed.. Ed is being viewed more favourably while perceptions of Dave have declined.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

A couple of people have raised with time the question of when they can expect to pick up their winnings on Mitt Romney for the Republican party nomination.

The battle is just about all over with Mitt expected to cross the finishing line with the 1144 delegates in the next two to three weeks.

Unfortunately for punters the bookies are likely to do what they have done in the past and wait until the party convention has met. With the GOP that won’t happen until the end of August.

Betfair’s rules are quite explicit – “This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2012 Republican National Convention.”

So if you are waiting to pick up winnings then you are going to have to be patient.

@MikeSmithsonOGH