Bigger YouGov shares for Ukip coming up?They appear to now include Ukip in first prompt. See this from @redukipper twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

If the firm’s critics are correct then expect bigger Ukip shares

Above is a screen shot of YouGov polling questionnaire which shows that Ukip is now included in the prompt on the main voting intention question.

Until now those polled wanting to say Ukip have had to click the “some other party” option which, it is argued, has compressed the shares for Farage’s party being reported by the UK’s most prolific political pollster.

We don’t know whether this is just a test or a permanent change and I have emailed the firm asking for clarification.

Certainly as Ukip has risen it has become increasingly hard to argue that it shouldn’t be there on the first screen alongside the other main parties

The big question is whether this will lead to bigger shares for Ukip from the firm that carries out at least five national voting intention surveys per week.

There had been a lot of debate recently on the issue led by newbie pollster Survation which started prompting for Ukip last year resulting in bigger shares for the purples in its polls.

If those who’ve been pressing for this change from YouGov are correct then we should see bigger Ukip numbers.

This is today’s YouGov. Whether or not it used the new prompt I do not know.

Today’s YouGov/Sun poll has CON 30, LAB 40,LD 10, UKIP 15

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

Update: there’s been no change in way YouGov prompts Ukip

YouGov tell me that there has been no charge in way it polls Ukip.The screen-shot in my Tweet putting it on main prompt was from a test

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

Mike Smithson

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Harry Hayfield’s historical prespective

The main news narrative over in recent days has been “Britain is a four party system country” following the success of UKIP in the county council elections, I, however would counter that by saying “Britain is in fact a thirteen party system” and hasn’t been a four party system for well over twenty years

Parties that have scored more than 1% of the national vote at a UK general election since 1950
Great Britain only
1950: Con, Lab, Lib
1951: Con, Lab, Lib
1955: Con, Lab, Lib
1959: Con, Lab, Lib
1964: Con, Lab, Lib
1966: Con, Lab, Lib
1970: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
February 1974: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
October 1974: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
1979: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
1983: Con, Lab, Lib, SDP, SNP
1987: Con, Lab, Lib, SDP, SNP
1992: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP
1997: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Referendum Party, SNP
2001: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP
2005: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, Green
2010: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, BNP

Today, there are eleven parties at Westminster with at least one MP (Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Plaid, SNP, DUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance, Green, Respect) and taking in account the Assemblies and Parliaments across the UK, you can add the Traditional Unionist Voice, UKIP and the various Independents in Holyrood, Stormont and Westminster whch gives you a grand total of thirteen parties across the United Kingdom (and that’s just those with elected parliamentarians). Go down to the local level and you can add various shades of Independents, Ratepayers, English Democrats, Liberals, Health Campaigners, Mebynon Kernow, Social Democrats and the Scottish Socialists, giving the UK a staggering twenty political parties with elected members to chose from. And that could mean that the once uncommon sight of the three way marginal may give way to the five way marginal (as seen in history)

Election 1983: Wrexham: Lab 34.27%, Con 33.37%, Alliance 29.71%
Election 1987: Brecon and Radnor: Alliance 34.81%, Con 34.67%, Lab 29.22%
Election 1992: Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber: Lib Dem 26.04%, Lab 25.14%, SNP 24.67%, Con 22.62%
Election 1997: Shrewsbury and Atcham: Lab 37.01%, Con 33.99%, Lib Dem 25.00%
Election 2001: Moray: SNP 30.32%, Lab 25.07%, Con 23.10%, Lib Dem 15.72%
Election 2005: Watford: Lab 33.55%, Lib Dem 31.23%, Con 29.62%
Election 2010: Norwich South: Lib Dem 29.35%, Lab 28.70%, Con 22.92%, Green 14.92%
Election 2015 (based on by-elections): Cambridgeshire South: Lab 24.43%, Con 24.29%, Lib Dem 17.86%, Ind 16.26%, UKIP 14.90%

Harry Hayfield

Last week in a thread on which party would come out with most votes at next year’s Euro elections Richard Nabavi suggested that the best value bet was the 10/1 which is still available from Ladbrokes on the Conservatives.

His reasoning was that these are a set of elections where the Tories have traditionally done well irrespective of how they’ve been performing in national Westminster polls.

Even, as the interactive chart above shows, in the dark days for the party in 1999 when Blair’s Labour was at its peak, the blues won nationally on votes. In 2004 it was the same and, as expected, they did well last time out in 2009.

Every set of EU elections since the party list voting system was introduced has seen the Tories come out on top. Why should 2014 be any different?

The betting favourite for next year is Ukip which has managed to seize the opportunity created by the party list voting system. But isn’t there a strong possibility that they are now going to be subject to much greater scrutiny. They’ve won lots of council sea and they now need to perform as elected representatives.

As we are seeing at the moment the backgrounds of those who won on May 2nd are being examined closely by their opponents and unfortunate blogs, Facebook entries and Tweets are being unearthed all the time.

Also the EU narrative is changing and who knows what it will look like in a year’s time?

All betting is a gamble but my view is that the Tories have a better than 9% chance of doing it. The current price is a good bet.

Mike Smithson

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Farage’s party hits record high with any pollster

This evening ICM phone poll for the Guardian is the first survey we’ve had from any firm other than YouGov since Ukip performance in the May 2 local election.

The figures above are sensational. ICM the firm that had Ukip with the lowest shares now has them with the highest. Each of the three main parties drops 4% compared with a month ago.

The firm has confirmed to me that there has been no change in their method.

There was a time when the phone pollsters had Ukip at far lower levels than the online firms. How dfferent that is tonight.

ICM has by far the nest record for polling accuracy of any of the firms that do regular Westminster voting intention polling.

These figures are sensational.

According to Electoral Calculus tonight’s ICM poll would see LAB 359, CON 228, LD 35, Ukip 0 seats. A LAB majority of 68.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2013

Mike Smithson

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Michael Gove’s claims about plots to overthrow Clegg haven’t impacted on the betting.Tim Farron still 5/2 favourite twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2013

He had a good Reynard-gate and Vote2013 aftermath

After Michael Gove’s little mischief yesterday in which he talked of a plot to oust Nick Clegg it is probably a good moment to look at the Lib Dem succession.

The electoral process involves the party’s MPs making the nomination but the decision being down to a postal ballot of the members.

There was a lot of talk last year about Vince Cable and if there had been a vacancy in 2012 then he’d have stood a good chance. But there wasn’t and things move on.

I’m not sure that Vince, now 70, would run. He’d have made a good care-taker with another contest taking place after the general election.

In the past I’ve been sceptical of Tim Farron’s chances because he’s not a minister. Now I think that’s less important and he’d be the one most likely to garner support from the membership.

As party President he’s been very much the public face and has earned the respect of many for the blunt and straightforward way he handled the Reynard case and the recent local elections.

Mike Smithson

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Welcome to a week that looks set to be dominated by Tory divisions on Europe.Familiar? goo.gl/wOAWX twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2013

The Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul summed this up well in an excellent blog yesterday:-

“That’s the news list gone for most of the week, as the vote on the symbolic Eurosceptic amendment in the Commons will wipe out most else, not least because of the unfamiliarity of a whipped abstention by government ministers.

What are the Tories thinking of….? Too many of them believe in withdrawing from the EU, I conclude, and care passionately about it. That’s not ignoble. I have argued before that the case for and against EU membership is finely balanced. But their behaviour is astonishingly counterproductive.”

The best way for the referendum-backers to get what they desire is to do everything possible to ensure that Cameron leads his party to an overall majority at GE2015.

What is happening this week will have the opposite effect.

Ed Miliband’s luck continues.

Mike Smithson

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Nadine says Dave should dump LDs &get into bed with Ukip.Only problem: LDs57 MPs, UKIP 0. goo.gl/IwfWg. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 12, 2013

If Dave followed Nadine & dumped LDs for Ukip then Nick could do reverse. CON MPs+Ukip MPs=305. LAB MPs+LD MPs=313.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 12, 2013

Just look at how 2010 CON voters view the same sex marriage issue compared with those who now say they are voting for the party. The first group show by 53% to 39% that they are against.

Compare that on the drop down menu in the chart above with current CON voters. They are in favour by 48% to 41%.

Look also at the emphatic opposition from current UKIP voters.

The poll also shows how 24% of those who voted for the Conservatives in 2010 now say that they back Ukip. A coincidence?

It is always dangerous looking at numbers and declaring that these have been the cause of voting changes. What we can say is that the Tory voters who remain have a different response pattern compared with those who have left.

Mike Smithson

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