No Overall Majority now a 51% chance on the Betfair exchange – see trend pic.twitter.com/1xJhh3rO0s
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2014
@MSmithsonPB We have the probability of no overall majority at 81%. Even those reduced odds look like a good deal.
— Election Forecast UK (@Election4castUK) October 26, 2014
It really is hard to argue against
The coming general election really is quite extraordinary. I can’t recall a time ever when all the main political parties and their leaders have been viewed with such low esteem and the polls are very tight.
Although theoretically LAB will enjoy an enormous benefit from the way the electoral system works you’ve got to be quite brave to back them for a majority particularly given EdM’s continual poor personal ratings.
The Tories suffer from the fact that they are seen as a party “not for people like us” – a perception reinforced by the backgrounds of those in Cameron’s close circle. There’s not a lot they can do about that – they are what they are.
And as for the LDs there’s really nothing more you can add to the tale of woe since the tuition fees fiasco four years ago. They are facing a beating the only issue is how well traditional strong incumbency works for them.
- My view is that with the main parties looking so weak then the personalities and records of individual candidates will matter more than ever before thus adding to the overall uncertainty.
Then of course there is UKIP – the party that is flourishing on the anti politician mood and looks set to make a breakthrough the scale of which is hard to quantify.
I’ve got an all green position with Betfair which I’m not tempted to change.