521 of the 852 sample in YouGov CON members poll were aged 60+

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2013

76% of CON members polled tell YouGov that Dave doing well 23% say he's doing badly

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2013

Today's issues tracker from YouGov sees just 32% of UKIP voters saying Europe is one of top 3 issues facing country. pic.twitter.com/20GmVJ8or4

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2013

Is the bill really going to stop the seepage to Farage’s party?

Today sees the publication of the EU referendum bill and, coincidentally the latest issues tracker from YouGov which unlike Ipsos-MORI does prompt when asking respondents to name the important areas of concern.

The detailed breakdown is in the YouGov table above which shows the party cross tabs.

This has been remarked on before but that just 32% of UKIP voters naming Europe reinforces the point that many continue to make about the salience of the EU as an issue.

It has far less potency than many Tories would like to think. Indeed the polling shows that just one in five CON supporters name it as an important issue.

All this does suggests that the referendum bill is not going to be the magic bullet that many on the blue team are looking for.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’ve always been a lurker, you’re on the Edge of Heaven, why not enter heaven tonight and delurk.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• Tories win over Generation Y while losing touch with older voters, David Cameron’s stress on individual responsibility plus a firm approach on welfare resonates with under-33s
• David Cameron should say to Tories thinking of replacing him, I’m your man, for the 2015 election, see this polling analysis from Peter Kellner
• YouGov ask the greatest polling question of all time, they combines four of my favourite things, Amy Pond, Star Trek, James Bond and Scottish Independence, no really they do.
• Freedom, and the cause of Scottish Independence takes a hit tomorrow, as tomorrow is the 707th anniversary of the shellacking the English gave Robert the Bruce at the Battle of Methven 
• Hillary Clinton today gets, Everything She Wants, for her campaign to be President in 2016 , with a first declaration of support from a sitting US senator
• Today is the forty-third anniversary of the 1970 General Election
• Losing to Germany in a World Cup match does have it upsides, as England losing to Germany was blamed for Labour’s defeat in 1970.
• The G8, Obama, and Syria: Why Putin came out on top
• A good interview with one of the Tory Young Guns, Jacob Rees-Mogg
• Ed Miliband needs to hold out against EU referendum, He would be betting the ranch on an issue which is not of primary concern to the electorate
• If Miliband is serious about tackling low pay, he needs to embrace the unions
• Unison set out their expectations for a Labour government
• Whilst the leader of Unison personalises the welfare debate, and goes after one woman in particular, accusing her of ‘having babies to get state handouts’
• To Eurosceptics, Ken Clarke and David Cameron are bad boys, because Ken Clarke writes “The Thatcherite case for staying in the EU“, Whilst Dave says Britain could lose out from trade deal if we pull out of EU 
• Cyprus president calls for bailout overhaul to save economy
• Ukip In Donside By-Election Gaffe After Sending Leaflet To Late MSP Brian Adam
• Museum of Science and Industry ‘saved’ 
• Expect scorching hot summers for the next ten years, Run of wet summers could last another 10 years, Britain has a higher chance of wet summers for up to the next ten years, the Met Office has predicted, after a new weather pattern was identified in the North Atlantic
• One for conspiracy theorists, the Mayor of Watford had to sign the official secrets act because of the Bilderberg meeting.
• Whitby Labour Councillor fathers child with alien queen – his wife is “unhappy”

TSE

Boris & Theresa May now 12/1 joint 2nd favourites to be next PM. EdM 8/11 favourite. http://t.co/5ytVwnI62K See pic.twitter.com/YiclNEMU6b

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2013

@MSmithsonPB interesting that if those 12 names two are brothers, two are married and three were in the bullingdon club together #we'recrap

— Mr Thompson (@FeastSpectre) June 18, 2013

Latest YouGov "best on Schools & Education" ratings point to Gove's policies being a driver of LD > LAB switching pic.twitter.com/ZiTIbhgPKw

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2013

2010 LD voters give LAB a 22% lead on the issue

Whenever there is any polling involving the coalition’s education policies or Michael Gove personally the key swing group of voters next time, 2010 Lib Dems, appear to be taking a hostile view.

Today we have YouGov’s regular ratings on the best party for different policy areas and there’s been a move to Labour on Schools/Education. The party was 5% ahead – now that’s up to 9%.

Where it gets very interesting is on the very different view that the remaining Lib Dem voters have compared with those who supported the party at GE2010.

The chart below shows the breakdown – just click on the tab to see the differences.

As can be seen 59% of current LD voters back their own party as you might expect. But just look at the split amongst 2010 Lib Dems where LAB policies are ahead with a 22% gap over the Tories.

Now what this polling doesn’t show is the extent to which this might have influenced voting intentions.

We do know, however, from other polling by YouGov and Ipsos-MORI that education is more important as an issue to 2010 Lib Dems than those who voted for other parties.

As I keep on saying 24% of the GB vote in 2010 went to the LDs. That’s going to be a lot smaller at the election and how this segment reacts could be good pointer.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, it will be a Red Letter Day the day you post for the first time.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• Hopi Sen asks, Labour’s polling softening: What’s behind it, and does it matter?
• Remember how Clinton sealed the deal for Obama last year? Blair could do that for Miliband
• David Miliband on what Labour needs to do to win
• How Cameron and Clegg could reach a deal on cutting pensioner benefits
• Coalition seeks shake-up of pensions industry with new “collective defined contribution” plan
• Strictly Come Dorries: Now Tory MP Nadine wants a place on dance show as she attacks ‘idiots’ who think Cameron is a winner
• Supreme Court Cites Bush v. Gore For The First Time Ever
• Huzzah, EU Votes To End Roaming Charges In 2014
• China Crisis? China’s shadow banking system is out of control and under mounting stress as borrowers struggle to roll over short-term debts, Fitch Ratings has warned.
• Michael Gove says ‘Labour’s school policy is so tortured they should send in the UN to end the suffering’
• UKIP councillor says voters mistook him for a woman
• The west’s dominance of the Middle East is ending
• Tomorrow is a great day for fans of Eton College, Coalitions and European Unity, for it is the 198th anniversary of The Battle of Waterloo. If you’re lacking in knowledge about the Battle, read more about it here.
• Or if you prefer a short video about the Battle of Waterloo, click here.
• Borisstan: the independent city state and docking station for global wealth formerly known as London What would the British capital look like in the future if it broke away from the rest of the country?
• Prisons in this country are becoming hotels.
• Kuwait to ‘execute prisoners on live television’
• When Star Wars meets Doctor Who
• Living in Manchester, this is what I have to put up with.
• Following Tony Robinson’s Knighthood, my favourite scene from Blackadder (NSFW or if you’ve got kids in earshot)

TSE

With a reshuffle likely in July Justine Greening moves to favourite slot at Ladbrokes for next cabinet exit. pic.twitter.com/OqdpzI8Hl1

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 17, 2013

If more than one cabinet leaves on the same Ladbrokes operate their dead heat rules. Thus if three of the 23 members settlement would be based on a third of your stake at the odds that you originally got.

The art here is to spot a long shot who might just be in the running.

A pitfall here is that the bet only applies to official cabinet members not to those are allowed to attend. In last reshuffle quite a few cabinet ministers lost their places but we’re still allowed to attend.

I don’t envisage any changes amongst the Lib Dem five.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Another headache for Grant Shapps

There’s a wide awareness of the fact that the Lib Dems, who chalked up 24% of the GB vote in 2010, will be putting 100% of their efforts into no more than 75 seats – the 57 they are defending and a few more where they think they are in with a shout.

All the focus has been on what this will do in the LD battlegrounds but it could also make a big difference in the LAB-CON marginals themselves where Grant Shapps is hoping the yellow vote won’t be hit too much thus blunting the LAB challenge.

But the LD plan to have the most focused election campaign ever means that there will be nothing more than token Lib Dem efforts in the remaining 555 constituencies.

The campaigns there will consist of little more than utilising the facility that’s provided to all candidates to have one leaflet distributed by the Royal Mail. Candidates will be put up by the yellows and will be on the ballot but that is about all.

Activists will be encouraged to put their efforts into their targets helped by the party’s new distributed phone-banking system which was put through its paces in Easteigh.

Thus there’ll be no real efforts to retain the votes of the large numbers who opted for the LDs in 2010 and their support will be squeezed like never before.

The impact of this, I believe, will be magnified in the 80 or so key LAB-CON battlegrounds where the red and blue campaigns will be going full throttle and more.

Given that the polling is showing that Labour is picking up the lion’s share of 2010 LDs who’ve switched the absence of LD campaiging simply adds to the pressure on the Tories. For the last thing Grant Shapps wants is for there to be any more switching.

The general election in the non-marginals will be very different for everybody. None of the parties will be putting that much effort in where it doesn’t matter.

Mike Smithson

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Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’ve always been a lurker, why not Take That opportunity which Nighthawks gives you to delurk. It Only Takes A Minute to post, Never Forget, we were all lurkers once.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• Steve Richards says, both Labour and the Tories think they’re going to lose the next election. Maybe they’re both right
• Whilst James Forsyth says Someone has got to win the next election
• Boris Johnson tops David Cameron – and his own party
• A swing of the handbag reveals Mrs May’s ambition
• Street lights may be turned off to help fund elderly care, councils warn
• Labour MP says she thinks the security services are spying on her
• GCHQ intercepted foreign politicians’ communications at G20 summits
• House of Lords could swell to 2,000 to balance ‘immovable block’ of Liberal Democrat peers. Hundreds of new Labour, Tory and Ukip peers would be needed to dilute Lib Dem over-representation
• A Lib Dem Bar chart
• SNP’s Flemish ally warns: Independent Scotland can’t have a-la-carte EU membership

• The Guardian says, Meet Polly Toynbee and Aditya Chakrabortty for a coffee on Tuesday, If you’d like to talk to our columnists face to face, here’s a chance to do so at our new coffee shop in east London, go on, you know you want too.

• Name a college after Thatcher? She might have been good but she does not trump Jesus, says Oxford uni chief Lord Patten
• I recommend the book, but the Inside story of deals that built coalition set to be a TV drama
• The Green Agenda could inspire and challenge this generation – and help Labour take on UKIP and the Tories
• Barack Obama is a Robot in disguise, transformer?
• Psychic Derek Acorah cancels show due to “unforeseen circumstances”

TSE

He suggests LAB would go for minority government if it fell short

Last July I got a three figure sum on at Hills at 12/1 that GE2015 could produce another hung parliament but the largest party would would try to govern on its own without a coalition.

My argument at the time was that I cannot see either the Tories or the Lib Dems wanting to enter into another coalition because there’s too much bad blood on both sides. My sense also was that there is so much residual hostility within the Labour movement to the Lib Dems that it would be hard for Ed Miliband to go down the coalition route even if that is what he wanted.

That view is reinforced today by an interview in the Sunday Times (££) today with the former Treasury Secretary, Liam Byrne. In it he says that they could achieve more without entering into a partnership with the Liberal Democrats. The current government is so weak it has “given coalitions a bad name” and says his party must “study that lesson hard”.

The challenge with trying to go on its own, as seen in the wonderful National Theatre production, This House, on the 1974-79 parliament, is how does a minority government get its business through? They could be held to ransom at any time by their own MPs as well as small groups from other parties.

The bland assumption seen by some CON and LAB figures that the LDs or other groupings would give the largest party a “supply and confidence” arrangement is pure wishful thinking. Why should they?

Everything, of course, depends on the numbers and at the moment the polls are pointing to a big LAB majority.

If EdM’s team do fall short then I can see a big argument over the next step with Mr. Byrne clearly on the no deal side.

Mike Smithson

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Follow @MSmithsonPB

Latest favourable/unfavourable ratings from ComRes online see Balls ahead of Osborne & LAB ahead CON. Dave/EdM = pic.twitter.com/h94WiXZOCw

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2013

Well done to ComRes for sticking with favourable/unfavourable ratings which are widely used in US and which I regard as best format.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2013

On voting intentions CON slip sees LAB extend ComRes lead

LAB extends leader in latest ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror Con 26% (-3) Lab 35% (0) UKIP 19% (0) LD 10% (+2) Others 10% (+1)

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2013

Meanwhile the LDs continue to struggle with Opinium

LAB 36 (-1), CON 27(+1), Ukip 20 (-1), Lib Dems 7 (+1) in latest fortnightly Opinium/Observer poll.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 15, 2013

Your chance to make your prediction

Will 2015 be more like 1983 or 1997?

Since speculation of a triple-dip recession was put onto the backburner with the modest growth recorded in the first quarter of the year, the preponderance of the economic stats have pointed to the embedding of a steady, if unspectacular, recovery.  The employment figures this last week were as good an example as any: jobs were up, unemployment was down and earnings are still failing to maintain pace with prices.

To some extent, that combination’s not too surprising.  The fact that wages haven’t increased too rapidly is one reason unemployment hasn’t risen much higher.  On the other hand, pre-recession earnings – or at least, income – were greatly boosted by piling up private debt and a decline in real wages represents a move to more sustainable incomes.  What is doesn’t represent, however, is a happy state of affairs for the nation.

What’s more, even if there aren’t to be any more hiccups in the recovery – and that’s a big ‘if’, assuming that the Eurozone crisis is predominantly over, that there’ll be no new commodity price shocks, or other Black Swan event/s – the joyless nature of it seems here to stay for some years at least, and certainly until well after the general election.  All parties accept that there’s a structural government deficit to be closed, meaning more austerity, and as normal service is resumed, we can expect interest rates to start climbing back from their centuries-low level.

One aspect of the 1990s recovery that’s been remarked upon was its voteless nature: the economy improved but the fortunes of the Conservative government didn’t.  Actually, that’s not entirely true.  The Conservatives did claw back some of their vote share by 1997 from their disastrous mid-term local and European results, and in the polls, which while methodologically suspect, were at least likely to be consistent within their own series.  Even so, the fact remains that after five years of growth, the Tories took a hammering.  Can we expect the same this time, given the lack of a feel-good factor?

Not necessarily.  There were many other reasons for the 1997 defeat, from sleaze to splits over Europe to a feeling that the Conservatives had run out of steam after eighteen years.  There was also the small matter of Tony Blair as leader of the opposition.  Some of those aspects are, of course, going through more than a bit of a repeat this time round; others aren’t.  In particular, Labour remains tainted by the recession and resultant austerity in a way that Blair’s party wasn’t.

Perhaps the most important difference though is in the blame and credit game.  It’s true that there was good growth through the nineties but that was in no small part down to the boost the economy received from the lower interest rates and more favourable exchange rate enjoyed after Sterling was ejected from the ERM; not a policy the government could take much credit for.  By contrast, this time, as Norman Lamont put it, it might be hurting but at least it’s working (for example, in contrast to the main Eurozone countries).

If that’s so, you might say, why then does George Osborne lag Ed Balls in the ratings?  Partly that’s down to the unforced political error of cutting the top rate of tax, which whatever the economic merits, sent entirely the wrong message about all being in it together.  More of it though is probably due to the fact that for three years, the austerity policy hadn’t noticeably delivered as the economy continually flirted with further bouts of recession.  There is still plenty of time for that to change.

There is precedent too for the opposite of a joyless recovery, namely the government getting credit despite the difficult times.  1992 was one obvious case but 1983 might be an even better one.  That election was of course greatly affected both by the Falklands effect and the SDP split but even before the Falklands, the Conservative vote share was recovering as the country emerged from recession (despite the continuing high unemployment).  A further parallel is that then, as now, many voters abandoned both Labour and the Tories in mid-term opinion polls for a new political phenomenon, though that star had waned significantly by polling day.  Even without the Falklands, Thatcher may well have been heading for re-election given mistrust of the opposition and the belief among enough that while the medicine was tough, it was also necessary.

That core debate about competence is critical, and remains to be won by either side (and for these purposes, if not much else, the Lib Dems are with the Tories and UKIP with Labour, as government and opposition respectively).  That’s partly about personality, it’s partly about past delivery, but it’s also about policy: what, for example, is Labour’s Plan B, how would it be funded, and is it the shamefully neglected policy necessary for recovery or is it symptomatic of an unreconstructed party addicted to borrowing and spending other people’s money?

That the recovery of the next two years will be joyless seems almost certain.  That it will be voteless is far less so.  Indeed, it’s almost certain not to be if that recovery is sustained and if the governing parties can behave as the electorate expects governing parties to.  And those are the ‘ifs’ to focus on.

David Herdson

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’ve always been a lurker, and you have a Desire to post, Nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, posting on pb is the Sweetest Thing, you’ll find today will become a Beautiful Day if you delurk tonight, hopefully at least One lurker will delurk tonight.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• Why Ed Miliband is going to be the next Prime Minister, Do the maths. It will be quite hard for Labour not to be the largest party after the next election.
• Labour must not let Ukip win working-class votes
• Liberal Democrats have created a million jobs – and now want a million more
• Liberal Democrats to put job-creation at heart of election campaign, Strategists hope focus on jobs will make party central to economic debate that is expected to dominate runup to election
• Oh bother, Chinese censors target Winnie the Pooh and Tigger
• Why Defence Secretaries go native
• Blinded by their eurosceptic ideology, the Tories are risking our national security
• What happened next after the general strike failed
• SNP will axe ‘bedroom tax’ after independence
• Scottish independence: UK defence secrets ‘could hit jobs’
• DUP to investigate after councillor takes Bacardi Breezer to meeting, Northern Irish party – whose founder Ian Paisley called alcohol the ‘devil’s buttermilk’ – says it does not condone behaviour
• Pope Francis is emerging strongly from the Vatican’s ‘gay lobby’ crisis
• In case you missed it the other night, For PB’s many fans of ABBA, don’t miss this chance to watch this BBC documentary about celebrating the singing career of Abba performer Agnetha Fältskog

TSE

(Note this was written at 5.30pm BST)

Henry G Manson on the impact of waiting till May 2015

I’m not a big fan of fixed terms, but what stuck me at the start of the Coalition was how little debate there was about the length of fixed term that was being proposed. The majority of fixed term governments are run on a 4 year cycle, yet the Coalition were determined to lock in 5 years of government. This in itself will pose challenges for all parties.

From a democratic view I dislike the idea of having to wait longer to throw out a government of any colour. We know from our country’s recent history that governments that staggered on five years did so to avoid the inevitable reckoning with the voters, instead hoping ‘something will turn up’ No-one from the Conservatives looks fondly of 1996-97 under John Major. 2009-10 under Gordon Brown was littered with botched leadership challenges and a sense of gloom. For governments out of favour with the electorate the rot has often set in by the fourth year.

For the Coalition we’re still a whole year away from that 4 year landmark. 3 years in there’s growing talk of leadership challenges to David Cameron, the Conservative grassroots are alarmed at the electoral threat of UKIP and policies such as ‘gay marriage’ that have upset and distressed many activists.

At Westminster there’s the drumbeat of animosity between backbench MPs from both Coalition parties, each blaming the other for their failings. The two years until the election could be a long and rocky road.

2015 will mark ten years of David Cameron as leader of the Conservative Party. It’s a long time in modern politics and to ask for 5 more years in 2015 becomes that bit harder both within the party and with the public. A 2014 general may have been too soon for Ed Miliband but 2014-2015 could be the year where voters decide to give him a chance.

It’s not all good news for Labour. Although Labour fixed terms have provided an orderly timetable for fundraising, candidate selection and developing policy. But if we were now a year until the election there’d arguably be more focus, urgency and energy. There are fears the party is using the comfort of a five year fixed term to put off decisions and the voters can sense that.

If we’re to continue with fixed terms in the future then they need to be 4 years and not 5. For everyone’s sake.

Henry G Manson

A lot happened between Dec 1981 and June 1983

Whenever people raise the question of whether the Tories can win the next election I like to point to the above opinion poll by Gallup in December 1981.

At the time the big story was the rise of the SDP and this poll took place shortly after Shirley Williams had had a spectacular victory in the Crosby by-election.

The new party had the media narrative with it and quite a number of LAB MPs defected as well as a CON one.

That the Liberal/SDP Alliance should poll over 50% was quite remarkable.

It didn’t last. Events, in the name of the Falklands, intervened and within a seven months the whole political landscape had changed. At the June 1983 election the CON vote share dropped by 1.5% but Mrs. Thatcher government was returned with a majority of 144.

Looking back at that period there are certain similarities with the recent UKIP surge.

The main differences are that the purples have not won a Westminster by-election and in this parliament have not seen an MP of another party defecting to them. They still have zero MPs.

Also UKIP’s top poll rating of 22% is nowhere the 50.5% plus that the Lib/SDP saw.

Mike Smithson

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Follow @MSmithsonPB

If it was not for the by-election that they are defending in King’s Lynn, this week’s by-elections could be described as a week when the Lib Dems would be better off closing their eyes and going “La, La, La” as Kirklees and Southampton are yet more prime examples of what has happened since entering the coalition. Kirklees first of all, and in 2003, the council was trending Labour but with no one party in control local elections were always going to be on a knife edge (as so they proved). In 2004, the Lib Dems became the largest party, in 2006 it was the Conservatives, 2007, Labour, 2008, Conservatives and in 2010 Labour again but still some eleven short of an overall majority. The 2011 elections were a Lib Dem disaster as they managed to lose six seats allowing Labour to confirm their status as largest party and then lose another four in 2012. And as seen in wards like this one, going from a fairly good third place to being overtaken by the Greens.

Watlington on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Lib Dem Defence)
Last Local Elections (2011): Con 42, Lab 13, Ind 3, Lib Dem 3, Green 1 (Conservative majority of 22)
Ward Result 2011: Liberal Democrats 635 (82%) Labour 135 (18%)

Which makes Watlington even more bizarre. King’s Lynn (part of the Norfolk North West constituency) has never really been a Lib Dem area. Their best performance in recent elections was seven councillors in 2003 (when the Conservatives had an overall majority of 6). In 2007, the Conservative majority increased by a factor of seven (helped in part by ten Labour losses) and as a result the Lib Dem seats halved and although Labour managed to recover almost all of those losses, the Lib Dems lost yet another councillor. So either Watlington is an electoral law unto itself (not unlike Ceredigion) or there is something that the Liberal Democrats have not very much of, of late, electors who love them.

Woolston on Southampton (Lab Defence)
Last Local Elections (2012): Lab 30, Con 16, Lib Dem 2 (Labour majority of 12)
Ward Results in current electoral cycle:

And nowhere is this lack of Lib Dem love demonstrated than in Southampton (that very rare thing, a non met third council where ALL the wards are up for election each year). Back in 2003, the Lib Dems were short by seven of an overall majority and everyone was expecting that the council would soon go Lib Dem. However in 2006, the remarkable happened. Lib Dem 16, Con 16, Lab 16. All three parties were completely tied. For days afterwards Southampton was a media hive as people wondered what would happen (everything from a “government of local unity” to a “grand coalition” was put forward). In the end the electors had their say in 2007 when the Lib Dems were knocked for four by both the Conservatives and Labour (Con 18, Lab 18, Lib Dem 12) and ever since it has been a one way journey for the Lib Dems downwards. Eight councillors in 2008 (as the Conservatives gained control), five in 2010, three in 2011 and as Labour made eleven gains in 2012, the Lib Dems were reduced to just two councillors.

By far the best Theresa May bet is the 16/1 from Hills that she’ll be next PM. I’ve just had a punt.bit.ly/u6wr8r

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013

The Telegraph story that prompted the betting changes for next CON leader. goo.gl/eUePq twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013

Theresa May 4/1 edges Boris 5/1 out of favourite slot for next CON leader. Hague, Hammond &Gove 10/1 with Ladbrokes twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013

Best Theresa May bet is PaddyPower’s “Next CON Leader after Cameron to be female”. 4/1. bit.ly/I8PkIO

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013

A ludicrous attack on the UK’s leading funder of polling @lordashcroft by Peter Oborne goo.gl/BTbKw twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013

To claim @lordashcroft has a “dangerous monopoly of political information” goes beyond hype telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… its evidently nonsense

— Sunder Katwala (@sundersays) June 12, 2013

Barmy slightly hysterical attack on @lordashcroft by Peter Oborne. Ashcroft a man who not only created wealth but kept Tory Party afloat

— Stewart Jackson MP (@SJacksonMP) June 12, 2013

When it comes to CON strategy Ashcroft is right & Crosby/Osborne wrong

Ever since Dave/George made the decision to bring in Lynton Crosby to run the GE2015 election campaign the Tory leadership have been at odds with the party’s former deputy chairman and leading funder over many years, Lord Ashcroft.

Quite simply Crosby, and presumably Osborne, have a view on how the Tories should try to win in 2015 while Ashcroft has another. To back his position Ashcroft has commissioned a mass of polling which suggests that the strategy that is being followed is probably not going to work.

Ashcroft has ploughed huge amounts into expensive phone polling and big sample online surveys simply because he is a seeker after knowledge. Very generously he has made the full details of his polling available to others. He’s also been very responsive to points raised by poll watchers like me.

More than anything Ashcroft’s desire is to see a majority CON government elected and he’s used his data to warn, for instance, of the blues going on too much about Europe.

Oborne’s attack is ridiculous.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’ve always been a lurker, nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, make some Changes, Tonight, be a Rebel Rebel, and start posting, I’m sure you’ll be Dancing in the Street once you start posting

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• I wonder if David Cameron still stands by his twitter maxim, PMQs: Twitter verdict shows David Cameron ‘won.’ Analysis of Twitter activity during PMQs showed that David Cameron beat his Labour opponent, Ed Miliband.
• PMQs review: Cameron profits from Labour’s pensions move (hat tip Carola)
• It is time for Lord Ashcroft and the Tory party to part company
• The rise of Ukip – more blip than permanent shift?As support for the party slips six points following May’s record, there may well be less to Nigel Farage than many of us think
• Nine out of 10 council leaders expect some local authorities to face bankruptcy or fail to deliver essential services over the next three years
• Cameron was a ‘girly swot’ at university, says Boris
• Former Tory MP Andrew Pelling to stand as Labour council candidate
• The SNP’s pledge to design a radically different welfare system in an independent Scotland would result in a “serious risk” of disruption to claimants, a Scottish Government-commissioned panel concluded yesterday.
• Have a look at the 2013 Shed of the Year entrants.
• A man with a beard causes trouble.
• A way of paying the rent in Brighton
• Sony mocks Microsoft Xbox One with PlayStation 4 used games funny video
• For PB’s many fans of ABBA, don’t miss this chance to watch this BBC documentary about celebrating the singing career of Abba performer Agnetha Fältskog

TSE

Balls ahead of Osbo on running nation’s finances

The monthly Ipsos-MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out and sees very little change on a month ago. The firm’s UKIP share is 12% which is exactly what ICM had yesterday.

In another finding Ed Balls is beating Osborne by 38% to 35% as the one thought most capable at running the nation’s finances.

The leadership ratings

The latest Ipsos-MORI leadership ratings with Farage down a bit but still the only one with positive numbers. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 12, 2013

How Ed Balls is now ahead of Osborne with Ipsos-MORI.See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 12, 2013

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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Might the comprehensive school girl from Leeds make the cabinet?

It’s being said that Dave is planning a reshuffle in July in what will probably be the last big shake-up before GE2015.

For those Tory MPs elected in 2010 who aspire to high office this is a big moment and a key question will be whether any of them make it to the cabinet.

Given that it is hard to see anyone getting such a promotion who is not already a minister the number of possibles is quite small.

One who last year was being portrayed as the new Mrs Thatcher, is Norfolk SW MP, Liz Truss who has had an increasingly bigger public role in recent weeks. She went into battle against Nick Clegg on the childcare reforms and yesterday was touring the TV studios putting the government’s case on exam reforms.

At the moment she’s a junior minister at education so a jump to cabinet rank might be too big an ask. But with at least half of the Tory cabinet women said to be “at risk” there might just be an opportunity.

One thing’s for sure – Dave is not going to cutback on the number of female cabinet ministers.

Ladbrokes make her a 50/1 shot to be next CON leader. That might be worth a punt.

Those Thatcher comparisons from a year ago are not going to do her any harm whenever a leadership election occurs. Having achieved cabinet status by then could make a difference.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you’ve always been a lurker, nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, why not take a Walk on the wild side, posting on pb will make it a Perfect Day for you.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• Rightly or wrongly, I suspect this women is about to become the poster woman/family for the debate on benefits in this country.
• Meanwhile does austerity kill people?
• More problems for Syria, Damascus today, it’s just like being in Belfast during the troubles, says Nick Griffin. 
• Diane Abbott is the darling of the reforming Right, as Michael Gove declares his love for her.
• But Ms Abbott says Why I could do without Michael Gove’s declaration of love, I’m no fan of the unpopular education secretary. But I stand by my belief that working-class children need academic rigour
• Boris Johnson sets out his ’2020 vision for London’
• The New Statesman looks ahead to whom may be Labour’s candidate for the London Mayoralty in 2016
• Former Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker conceded Tuesday that mistakes were made in the bailout of Greece — days after a similar admission by the International Monetary Fund.
• Whilst George Galloway is considering running for Mayor of London
• Ed Miliband is trying to build a Britain the Tories can’t break
• Could the electorate conclude that there is precious little difference between the main parties?
• Not quite the leg over incident, but TMS experiences another moment when an double entendre makes a commentator dissolve into a fit of giggles
• This could make for a great plot for the next James Bond film, Is George Osborne’s Cat Freya A Chinese Spy?
• Watch the first trailer for ‘The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug’

TSE

Are we heading to a new normality?

The June telephone poll from ICM, one of the three remaining regular surveys that carry out their fieldwork in this way, is out and sees a sharp decline for UKIP after reaching 18% last month.

That poll took place while the Farage’s party was enjoying the mass of coverage following its big success in the May 2nd local elections and the good second place in the South Shields by-election.

This month the limelight has been off the party which is clearly reflected in the figures.

But make no mistake – 12% in an ICM phone poll, which many regard as the gold standard, is a very good share for UKIP and is the second highest that we’ve seen from the firm.

Fieldwork for this latest poll took place from Friday until Sunday.

To a question on the handling the slump, both the the blue and red teams are losing trust in parallel. Cameron and Osborne maintain a 9% lead over the TwoEd as the most trusted team for economic management, but only because the LAB two have fallen by the same level.

It should be noted, given my last post, that ICM do not prompt for UKIP.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Farage’s force is no longer “some other party”

Last year the newbie pollster which is now picking up an awful lot of business, Survation, caused controversy in the industry by including UKIP in its main voting intention prompt.

The result was that Survation began showing shares for UKIP which were considerably larger than many other firms.

The practice for online pollsters had been to list CON, LAB, and LD on the first screen of the voting intention questioning with an option to tick “Some other party” for those not wanting to choose the main three. In Scotland and Wales all the firms add SNP or PC.

The impact of the Survation move was quite marked – higher UKIP shares and lower ones for the “main three” particularly the Tories.

Since then, of course, party politics in the UK has been transformed by the rise of UKIP and there’s been a lot of analysis about the emergence of four party politics.

Yet most of the industry still treats UKIP in the old way which might be giving us a false picture – understating the party and overstating the others

We know that the UK’s most prolific political pollster, YouGov, has been testing has been testing different forms of prompting but so far, at least, is continuing in the old way.

YouGov also tends to show smaller UKIP shares because it does not take into account likelihood to vote thus understating the impact of the oldies who are much more likely to turnout at elections.

Yesterday the man who is probably the biggest private funder of UK political polling, Lord Ashcroft, accepted a point I’d been making about the presentation of his poll detail in relation to UKIP.

@msmithsonpb Surely you mean “even more useful”. The online and telephone tabs on my site now have UKIP crossbreaks bit.ly/12fmtwr

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) June 10, 2013

Maybe Lord Ashcroft could go one step further and change his prompts.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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@msmithsonpb Surprising that Labour are doing so well in the opinion polls if many still blame them for the economic situation.

— Stephen Hopkins (@StephenHopkin11) June 9, 2013

Surely non-voting findings are “priced in”?

Above is an exchange I had on Twitter pointing up one of the main characteristics of current polling – the gap between what people are saying when asked how they will vote and their responses to specific points like the Brown still being blamed one.

It was the same in the famous example of the Tories leading on the economy in May 1997 and the party getting walloped in the general election.

My view is that the key elements that voters are looking for are competence and party unity. On both counts the Tories are currently struggling.

The Tories, particularly the 2010 intake, seemed determined to follow different agendas from the leadership on a range of issues and the overall impression is of a party that isn’t united.

Contrast that with Labour. Over the past week as their revised economic strategy was announced there were few dissenting voices and the appearance was of them being unified. It might not last but that perception is playing a big part in driving their current voting lead.

It strikes me as well that the red team is more determined to win back Number 10 than the CON desire to hold on.

A big thank you to TSE for keeping PB going during my Italian holiday.

Mike Smithson

Overall, views of the three leaders have changed remarkably little over time. Asked to choose from a selection of words and phrases that might describe them, participants continue to choose “out of touch” for Cameron, with “stands up for Britain” as a positive counterbalance. Miliband remains predominantly “weak” and “out of his depth”, with no very prominent positives. Clegg contrives to combine the weaknesses of the other two, being “weak”, “out of his depth”, and “out of touch” all at the same time.

This fits in with the Mori leadership ratings which shows all of them consistently with net negative ratings. 

Here’s how the word cloud for all three party leaders looks like.

First up, for Dave

Then for Ed

and finally for Nick

Is this a symptom that we live in a cynical, anti-politics era, or is it fair comment on the leaders we have, and thus explains why UKIP are doing so well, as the voters aren’t enthused by the traditional parties and their leaders? Alex Salmond’s net positive ratings in Scotland shows it is possible to viewed positively by the electorate in this era.

TSE

Mike Smithson returns from holiday today.

Yougov Sunday Times poll. Con 30, Labour 40, UKIP 14, Lib Dems 9

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2013

64% Support ending the winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners, 28% oppose. – Ed’s policy has support

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2013

On cutting benefits 21% say Ed M did it because he genuinely believes that it is the right thing to do.

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2013

But 60% says he does not believe it is right, but is doing it forpolitical reasons

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2013

72% support ending child benefit payments to better off households, 21% oppose

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2013

On the current state of the economy, a net 51% blame Brown, a net 27% blame Darling, a net 9% blame Balls, a net 15% blame Cam, Osbo net 22%

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2013

57% Support a ban on MPsfrom holding second jobs, 25% oppose a ban

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2013

45% of voters think Cameron is right to include new laws on Trade Unions in his proposed new laws on lobbying 29% say he is wrong. 25% DKs

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 9, 2013

TSE

Mike Smithson is currently on holiday

The possible ins and outs of the cabinet – according to today’s Sun newspaper. twitter.com/TSEofPB/status…

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 8, 2013

In the past day there’s been a few stories about some upcoming reshuffles.

In the Evening Standard it says

David Cameron will carry out a ministerial reshuffle within weeks — with a second, more sweeping reshaping of his government towards the end of the year, the Standard has been told.

The Prime Minister’s double shuffle will start in July, with changes in the Tory whips’ office and possibly minor changes to the junior ranks of other departments. The later reshuffle may see the departure of some big names as the PM puts together his team to fight the 2015 general election.

The story goes on to say there are potential returns for Andrew Mitchell and Liam Fox. For Andrew Mitchell I can see a return, thanks to Michael Crick’s excellent work on plebgate.

For Fox, given the circumstances behind his resignation, I think it could be difficult for him to return but as we saw with Peter Mandelson, it is possible for an ex-cabinet minister to return to the cabinet, after resigning in disgrace, twice. Fox’s appointment could allow Cameron to build bridges with the Tory right, following the travails over gay marriage.

The Sun also have a reshuffle story.

The Times (£) are tipping Eric Pickles as the new Chief Whip.  The reason for picking Eric Pickles is that “He knows the 2010 intake well, who have been the most problematical. He knows them from his time as Tory chairman.”

With any additions to the cabinet, there must be some departures, and the top of the list appears to the Culture Secretary, Maria Miller, who has been the focus of a lot of criticism, from the Daily Telegraph in particular, see this Guardian report for a wider context of her problems.

Whilst the Sun says Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers is also at risk, and The Times says Justine Greening is also at risk, mostly to do with the last time she was reshuffled. Philip Hammond is also reported at risk, because “he has angered No10 by speaking out against cuts”

At the time of writing, (5.30am)  Maria Miller and Justine Greening are both 12/1 as next out of the cabinet with Ladbrokes, whilst Theresa Villiers is 16/1,and Philip Hammond is 25/1 (he was 33/1 last week), if they do go as part of a wider reshuffle, the dead heat rules apply.

TSE

Mike Smithson is currently on holiday

By this time next year, there’ll have been plenty of time to pick over the results of the European and local elections, for analysts, activists, elected members and party leaders alike.  The local elections are something of a mirror-image to this year’s: heavily weighted to urban areas, including London.  Combined with European results, they hold a very miserable prospect for both governing parties.  So much so that talk of leadership change is likely, though the chances of actual change is somewhat lower.

At the same time, David Cameron has the tricky task of nominating the UK’s next European Commissioner.  In happier times for the coalition, Nick Clegg was talked of as a possible.  He has experience in Brussels; his departure would allow for an orderly transition from coalition, enabling the two parties to re-establish clear identities; he is pro-EU, as is generally expected of Commissioners; and it would give him an honourable way out of a political career that probably has no future after the election.  It ain’t going to happen.

Unless they implode spectacularly, UKIP will perform strongly.  They may top the poll; they’re very likely to finish in the top two (again).  Conservative MP’s and activists will be in no mood to allow the nomination of an ardent Europhile, never mind one of a different – and unpopular – party.  So who does he nominate?

Earlier this year, Andrew Mitchell intimated that he may be interested in the job were it to be offered.  Again, one can see the logic.  As a former International Development Secretary, he has foreign affairs experience.

Mitchell is unlikely to return to cabinet despite the allegation that prompted his resignation now looking at best unreliable, so there’d be no reshuffle and it would be official vindication of a sort.

In addition, his Sutton Coldfield majority of 17005 is if not quite bomb-proof, then at least not a loss waiting to happen.  Even so, the details of the whole Plebgate row became so messy that all involved became covered in the political mud thrown.  Mitchell may well still be seen as tainted, however unfair that is.

What are the alternatives?  Not many is the simple answer.  History and convention suggests that the role is effectively a cabinet-level position but it’s difficult to see Cameron wanting to give up any of his big hitters, or, for that matter, why they’d be too keen to go.

Gordon Brown had much the same problem last time, with Blair, Mandelson and David Miliband all passing up the opportunity to become the EU foreign policy chief.  Of the more senior ministers, Philip Hammond is probably the most plausible nominee.  Beyond that, we’re probably looking at ministers like Owen Paterson or Francis Maude.

David Herdson

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB Night Hawks.

If like me, politics and betting is “Always on my mind” for news on politics and betting, you’ve come to the right place.

If you’ve always been a lurker, nighthawks gives you an opportunity to delurk, if you’re thinking, It’s a sin, to post, it isn’t

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

• Britain faces at least two ‘austerity elections’, says thinktank
• France is gearing up for a war with the United States
• France’s President Hollande confuses Japan and China
• Ukip becomes the official opposition in South Tyneside
• David Cameron is no longer more popular than his party
• Church leaders demand ministers apologise for “misrepresenting the poor”
• Renationalise it: Public say railways would be better and cheaper under public control
• What if Britain had joined the euro?

• Centrica is close to signing a deal to partner Cuadrilla Resources in fracking for shale gas in the north-west of England.

• How to get around a champagne ban
• Morris the Cat is running for mayor of an Mexican city
• 12 Reasons Why Benedict Cumberbatch Should Be The 12th Doctor

TSE

 Note: Mike Smithson is currently on holiday

One of the charms of the Westminster system is that Cabinet ministers still have contact with the electorate through their surgeries and case work. It’s a reality check. In other electoral systems Ministers are not constituency MPs. However the make-up the voters that have the ear of Cabinet and Shadow ministers matters and they’re not always representative.

Earlier this week Patrick O’Flynn at the Express argued how some of the Conservative Party’s current problems related to the fact that hardly any of their Cabinet Ministers weren’t in marginal seats.

In fact only 3 of 24 Conservatives who attend Cabinet have a majority less than 10,000. According to O’Flynn this means that they don’t have the same feel for the concerns of swing voters and end up down electoral cul de sac by spending political time and capital on issues such as ‘gay marriage’ rather than addressing the cost of living. It’s an interesting argument and raises wider questions.

Why would party leaders pick their top team from people who don’t represent the type of seats they need to retain and win? From day one the political advancement game is geared up for those MPs with safe seats. I

f you have to spend every weekend campaigning and being visible in the constituency then that takes you away from raising your profile at think tank events and conferences, speaking at other Constituency Associations or CLPs or having the time to write a pamphlet on this or that, no matter how much you’d be keen to do that.

Tough choices have to be made and most MPs with a small majority will opt for self-preservation over self-advancement.

Reaching the top doesn’t happen overnight but is the product of furious lobbying, schmoozing, self-improvement and hard graft. But what plagues many MP’s doors is the raw electoral risk of losing the seat on your way to the top. The ebb and flow of elections – a 5% swing here, a 3% swing there has wiped out many MP’s promising careers before they’ve begun.

Whereas over half of MPs effectively have a job for life and political longevity is fundamental to success. As your government becomes less popular in office, a minister with a slight majority inevitably becomes a bigger target and potential scalp for opponents.

There are some parallels between from O’Flynn’s analysis of the Tories and with the Labour Party. I can see some of the risks already. As important as the bedroom tax, benefit changes and unemployment are, they’re bigger issues in the poorest areas – those that tend to already return Labour MPs with big majorities.

That’s not to say there isn’t a moral case for Labour raising but that it’s about recognising it’s going to resonate differently. The red team shouldn’t rely on the experiences of their own constituents being enough to drive voters elsewhere back into the party’s bosom. However the parallels aren’t quite the same.

Although Labour Most Shadow Cabinet members have very large majorities – a significant number don’t. Ed Balls has a majority of 1,101. Sadiq Khan 2,524, Ivan Lewis 3,292, Mary Creagh 1,613, Vernon Coaker 1,859 and Owen Smith 2,785. Now if you asked any of them if they’d prefer to add 10,000 to their majority they’d bite your arm off.

If O’Flynn is right then having some Shadow Cabinet members with marginal majorities could be a useful advantage for Labour to have over the Conservatives and keep some of their colleagues in touch with the sort voters that will determine elections.

Henry G Manson

There’s a new poll out conducted for Lord Ashcroft, you can find it here.

The changes are from Lord Ashcroft’s poll conducted at the end of January

The field work was  between 31 May and 2 June 2013, 2,060 adults were interviewed online, and 1,007 by telephone.

As we can see, the big winners are UKIP up six, whilst the Tories are down six, both Labour and the Lib Dems are down, but within the margin of error.

On the supplementaries

• For the first time, though, the proportion saying they were more favourable towards the Conservative Party generally than to Cameron himself was (slightly) higher than those saying the opposite. Miliband continues to be significantly less popular than his party – The figures are Con 22/Cameron 18 – Labour 38/Miliband 10
• The coalition team of Cameron, Clegg and Osborne are more trusted than Miliband and Balls by a slightly smaller margin of 14 points, compared to a rather narrower 5 points when only the Tory and Labour teams are named.
• Following all the discussions and interventions following the Mick Philpott trial, the Tory lead on tackling welfare abuse is down one percent since January, to 5%
• On the economy, The coalition team of Cameron, Clegg and Osborne are more trusted than Miliband and Balls by 14 points, which is down 3 since January.
• When only the Tory and Labour teams are named, the Tory lead is 5%

Putting these figures through at electoral calculus leads to a Labour majority of 106, and this is another poll that shows UKIP getting zero seats

The Lord Ashcroft poll put through electoral calculus. twitter.com/TSEofPB/status…

— TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2013

TSE

Mike Smithson is currently on holiday.

Last Local Elections (2012): Lab 51, Lib Dem 26, Ind 1 (Lab majority of 24)

Ward Results 2010 – 2012

As I mentioned last time when we had a by-election in Newcastle, the council reflects precisely was has been happening with the Liberal Democrats post coalition and judging by what happened last time, I would expect more of the same.

Wollaton West on Nottingham (Con Defence)

Last Local Elections (2011): Lab 50, Con 5 (Lab majority of 45)

Last Ward Result (2011): Emboldened means elected

Nottingham has since 2003 been a Labour stronghold and like Newcastle has been reflective of the collapse in the Liberal Democrats following the coalition. Back in 2003 when Labour had a majority on the council of 17, the Liberal Democrats were the official opposition (with 11 councillors) to the Conservatives 8 councillors.

However, in 2007 there was an inkling of what was forthcoming as Labour made six gains (against the national trend of diasterous losses across the country with the Liberal Democrats losing five councillors and the Conservatives one councillor.

It was 2011, as was the case across the rest of the country, when the anti Liberal Democrat feeling was made evident as the Liberal Democrats were wiped out on Nottingham and the Conservatives lost two seats to make Nottingham a virtual one party state, but as we have seen that can come back and bite parties (especially when people feel that they cannot vote for mainstream parties)

Harry Hayfield