“A growing number of the talented 2010 intake of MPs, who could play a key role in deciding Cameron’s fate, now believe their party should withdraw from the coalition at least a year before the next general election in 2015.

They believe Cameron may have to lead a minority government to save seats.

“We are the ones who are going to be picking up the pieces if we go down in 2015. The prime minister may have to choose between insisting on staying in the coalition and keeping his job,” one respected 2010 MP said.”

What makes this story interesting is as the Sunday Times reports that this isn’t the usual suspects, who make no secret of their disdain for the Lib Dems.

The Sunday Times also reports the usual suspect Adam Afriyie

Now has enough secret pledges of support to trigger a “no confidence” vote in the leader.

However, his supporters do not believe this is the time to strike.

What may be focusing the minds of these MPs is the bottom left front of the front page of The Sunday Times, which is reporting

Tory donors eye UKIP in revolt against Cameron, which includes some of the party’s most prominent and largest donors publicly expressing their doubts over Europe and or gay marriage.

This follows on from the news in the last 24 hours that City firms switching from Tories to UKIP, says Nigel Farage

SUNDAY TIMES FRONTPAGE: Missed clues on terror suspects #SkyPapers twitter.com/SkyNews/status…

— Sky News (@SkyNews) May 25, 2013

The other thing that maybe focusing the minds of Tory MPs is the latest Survation poll.

This is the second poll from Survation that shows UKIP only two points behind the Conservatives, proving their poll earlier on in the week was no outlier.

As Mike said a few days ago, the Tories collapsing the coalition leads to an early general election.

The best odds I can see at the moment for a 2013 General election is 12/1 with William Hill and for a 2014 General election is 11/2, with both with Corals and Paddy Power.

A full range of odds on the year of the next election can be viewed here.

Ladbrokes offers odds on Cameron being replaced as leader before the General Election at 5/2

Whilst Paddy Power offer that  David Cameron, before the next election

To face no leadership vote of confidence – 4/11

To face a leadership vote of confidence and win – 4/1

To face a leadership vote of confidence and lose – 9/2

TSE

In the first of this series, I’m starting with how Ed Miliband compares with his predecessors in terms of net ratings.

A couple of notes about the data.

1) The figure from Margaret Thatcher is from March 1977, nearly twenty-six months before the General election. This is the nearest polling to the two year window.

2) Iain Duncan Smith was removed as Tory Leader before he could contest the 2005 General election,

As we can see from the graph, the only two Leaders of the Opposition with a net positive rating two years before an election went onto become Prime Minister.

But only one out six of the Leaders of the Opposition with a net negative rating went onto win the general election, the seventh, IDS, was removed, nobody would suggest he was on course to win the 2005 General Election.

Is Ed Miliband in the same league as Margaret Thatcher?

We’re going to find out in little under two years time.

Update, I’ve added David Cameron’s figures.

Now moving onto how David Cameron compares to his predecessors.

His net ratings are comparable to Thatcher in 1981, 1985 and Blair in 2003, and they went onto win the subsequent general election, Cameron can be relieved his net ratings aren’t as bad as Thatcher in 1990, or Major in 1995 or Brown in 2008, who were either replaced as Prime Minister, or led their parties to record breaking defeats at the General Election.

As we can see above, Jim Callaghan had a positive net rating, but he still went onto lose the subsequent election.

The below graph shows the lead the Prime Minister enjoys over the Leader of the Opposition in the Ipsos Mori net ratings two years before the election.

Two years to go, this election isn’t in the bag for either party.

TSE

• In the next few days, I’ll do a couple of threads comparing David Cameron’s and the Government’s approval and VI ratings to their predecessors two years from a General Election. 
• In the next few days I’ll do a thread comparing this government’s approval and VI ratings  two years before an election with its predecessors.

Yes, you did read that headline correctly, it wasn’t a typo, I am going to discuss whether the Lib Dems can make net gains in parliamentary seats at the 2015 General election, which might seem odd, given the Lib Dems current travails in the polls.

Since the start of April, of the 37 polls conducted by YouGov, the Lib Dems have only led UKIP in four of them, averaging 10.4% to UKIP’s 12.8% in that period.

In the 16 non YouGov polls published since April, The Lib Dems have only led UKIP in one poll, that was the April ICM poll for the Guardian, where they led UKIP by 6%, by the time of May Guardian ICM poll, UKIP led the Lib Dems by 7% in that poll.

In these non YouGov polls, the Lib Dems averaged 9.4% to UKIP’s 16.1%

So why am I suggesting the Lib Dems could make net gains at the next election?

It was said UKIP cost the Tories anywhere from 5 to 10 seats in the 2010 General Election.

That was when they polled a little over 3% nationwide in The General Election.

Just imagine how many seats they can cost the Conservatives if they poll on election day anything like they are currently polling.

Even if they poll on election day half of what they are currently polling with ICM, that would be 9%, three times what they achieved in 2010.

There is evidence that UKIP surge is coming disproportionately from people who voted Conservative in 2010, per the ICM poll for the Guardian this month

Over a quarter of Cameron’s 2010 backers, 27%, had switched to Ukip by May. Some 13% of 2010 Labour supporters have gone the same way, together with 12% of 2010 Lib Dems.

(I’m making the assumption that the UKIP will do better in the South of England, than in other parts of the UK, hence the focus on the Southern seats)

The graph below shows the number of seats in the South of England where the Tories are the incumbents, the Lib Dems are second and the majority is less than 10%.

You can see exactly what seats could be in the Lib Dem sights here

If UKIP maintain their current polling performance at the General Election, then those seats have the potential to become gains for the Lib Dems.

There is precedent for the nationwide Lib Dem share of the vote to decline, but for the seat numbers to go up. In the 1997 General Election, the Lib Dem share of the vote declined by 1%, but in terms of seats, they went from 18 MPs to 46 MPs.

At the last General Election, the Lib Dem share of the vote went up 1%, but they suffered a net loss in seats, going from having 62 MPs to 57 MPs.

The Eastleigh by-election showed how effective the Lib Dem ground game is, particularly in the seats they hold, as Lord Ashcroft noted in January

The Lib Dems will almost certainly do better on the day than their poll numbers currently suggest, since local factors and popular MPs are a more important part of their appeal.

A few weeks prior to the by-election, the Lib Dems were polling 7% with phone pollster Mori, and trailing UKIP.

The irony that a mixture of first past the post and UKIP, could benefit the Lib Dems, will not be lost on some.

Currently the Lib Dems have 57 MPs, Ladbrokes have the following odds on the Lib Dem seat ranges at the next General Election

• 0-10, 12/1
• 11-20, 5/1
• 21-30, 4/1
• 31-40, 3/1
• 41-50, 4/1
• 51-60, 10/1
• 61-70, 20/1
• 71+, 10/1

The 51+ odds look enticing to me.

TSE

Just to say that I’m off on my holidays tomorrow and this should be the last post from me till a fortnight on Monday.

We are heading for Italy and will be staying in Milan, Sorrento, Lecce and Bologna. We’ve never been to Pompei before and that should be a highlight of the first week.

The site is in the capable hands of TSE.

Mike Smithson

Why do we hear so little about Caroline Lucas?

The election of Caroline Lucas in 2010 was in many ways quite extraordinary. In winning a three-way marginal seat she succeeded where UKIP have so far failed. Lucas is intelligent, thoughtful and charismatic. Yet the Greens simply have not capitalised.

At a time when the Labour Party is saying as little as possible about its policy plans, you’d think there was a hole for the Green Party’s national no nonsense opposition to austerity to fill. Instead a lot of enthusiasm generated comes from new non-party groups like UK Uncut and 38 Degrees. The idea of any further Green MPs being elected in 2015 currently looks remote.

In contrast there isn’t a week that goes by the UKIP isn’t in the headlines or are on a political show. The Greens barely get a mention. Why is that? Is it all down to woeful press management or the prejudices of our newspaper owners who help set the agenda? In a ‘digital’ age this shouldn’t be as significant.

The decision by Caroline Lucas to stand down as leader last year is a peculiar one. The SNP and UKIP have all seen their support drop when their popular leader has made way for others to step forward. Smaller parties tend to be more ideologically pure, yet overlook the fact that the personality of the leader can go a long way. Yet even when Lucas was also leader the party struggled to build momentum from 2010.

We’ve been here before with the Greens making breakthroughs that weren’t sustained. In 1989 the Green Party won 15% of the vote in the European elections. As a party of protest they became eclipsed by the Lib Dems and in the next European elections they picked up just 3%.

But now the yellow team are in a controversial Coalition you’d think the Greens would be in their element? The Tories who once urged ‘vote Blue, go green’ have failed to fulfil their environmental potential. Just where is the opposition from the Greens?

As UK political support fractures into four or five different ways, it is  hard to explain why the Green Party aren’t doing better. There should be some serious soul-searching from the party nationally. But I don’t detect any.

Henry G Manson

Ukip drop to 13%

The latest YouGov daily poll is out and sees the Tories still in the doldrums below the 30 mark. The comparisons in the chart above are with a week ago which was before the reported “swivel eyed loons” that a senior CON figure was said to have made about party activists.

The firm has tended to show show better than average figures for the Tories and today’s numbers suggest that the bad press they’ve been having is continuing to have an impact.

The Ukip figure, from a pollster that has been recording lower shares, is down at 13%. My view is that YouGov’s lack of a turnout weighting is the main factor why it can appear to be out of line.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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Last Local Election 2011: Lab 32, Ind 4, Green 1 (Labour majority of 25)

To view the result in 2011 please visit http://s3.datawrapper.de/BIZMe/

Dennis Skinner MP (Lab, Bolsover) has become as much of the Parliamentary Estate as Black Rod and the Speaker. Famed for his comments at each State Opening, is it any wonder that he has been named the “Beast of Bolsover” and was even immortalised in the CBBC comedy drama “Maid Marian and Her Merry Men” when the Beast of Bolsover (and his companion the “Nuisance of Nuneaton”) came into Worksop to make trouble. Whether it is Mr. Skinner’s parliamentary antics that help re-elect him each time or the solid hold on Bolsover by Labour is tricky to tell, but Labour’s hold on Bolsover is near total. In the 2003 local elections only six seats did not elect a Labour councillor, that figure increased to ten in 2007 (thanks in part to the decline in the Labour vote at Tony Blair’s last set of local elections), but normal service was resumed in 2011 when only five seats did not elect a Labour councillor, however as we have seen in the past having a virtual one party state does not mean that Labour can rest on their laurels (especially in a ward with a strong Ratepayer vote)

This will give you hours of psephological fun!

Biteback has generously agreed to give copy of the latest volume by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, called “British Electoral Facts 1832-2012″ as a PB competition prize.

The book is an amazing treasure trove and my copy sits almost permanently on my desk.

All you have to do is guess the CON and Ukip shares in the June Guardian ICM poll.

The closest forecast will win.

As with all PB competitions my rulings are final.

Use the thread below to make your entry.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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Thursday’s Sun front page – “We killed this British soldier. It’s an eye for an eye” #tomorrowspaperstoday #Woolwich twitter.com/suttonnick/sta…

— Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) May 22, 2013

This is the opportunity for Cameron to rise to the occasion. Will he?

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 23, 2013

PaddyPower CON leadership challenge prices. bit.ly/I8PkIOSee twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2013

How many seats will they win?

If the coalition is to end prematurely then it won’t be because the LDs quit. Clegg response.goo.gl/FRdUp twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 22, 2013

Tories are being told: There’ll be no supply & confidence

In a speech this morning Nick Clegg’s making it very clear that his party will not quit the coalition ahead of the general election.

So the blues factions who would like to see the arrangement ending prior to 2015 have got a problem. For Clegg is clearly not going to provide a supply and confidence arrangement should the Tories break the deal unilaterally.

As I have suggested before this means that the only way that the blues can get rid of the yellows is by risking an early general election. I don’t think that while Labour is ahead in the polls that that is going to happen.

The one alternative scenario I can envisage is Cameron being ditched as CON leader and his replacement, Hammond perhaps, getting a polling honeymoon.

If there was a change at the top then I think that that is likely. Whenever the Conservatives have booted out a leader they’ve had a boost in the polls.

The now loveless marriage has got another 23 months to go.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Yes

Ukip edge up 2

The changes are on the previous daily poll.

After last night’s different pictures from the YouGov and Survation polls the latest one from the former, just published, sees the blues drop sharply and Ukip rising 2.

The fall in the CON share of 4% is greater than the margin of error and this is either an outlier or an indication that we are seeing a new trend developing.

The general theory is that voters punish parties that appear split and that’s the message that has been coming over in the past three or four days.

The critical thing is how these polls impact on the current narrative and the mood of the parliamentary Conservative party

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

UKIP’s surge has swamped parties like National Health Action. 14 mths ago Ashcroft polling had them at 18% to this twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2013

Above is from some polling carried out for Michael Ashcroft in March 2012 on the possible impact that a NHS party could have on the next election.

As can be seen the party chalked up 18% in the poll taking votes from LAB and the LDs and leaving the blues ahead. Those figures were quite remarkable and suggested that there was an appetite for a non-mainstream party to emerge. There was but not NHA.

The party ran a reasonably high-profile campaign in Eastleigh and were the odds-on favourite to come top of the “others”. They got a fair bit of coverage – yet on polling day could only chalk up 0.9% of the vote.

Their challenge is that in fiercely fought elections like Eastleigh NHA gets totally swamped. The non-mainstream alternative is now Ukip.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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So why the huge difference?

The first YouGov poll to be carried out after the “loongate” story blew up has a dramatically different picture than Survation last night.

UKIP remains on the 14% share recorded in the Sunday Times poll while the Tories edge up 2% to 31% with LAB falling back a point.

The main differences between Survation and YouGov are that the former takes likelihood to vote into account and prompts for Ukip in its main voting question.

YouGov does not ask about voting certainty – an element that has really boosted UKIP in some polls that do. For a large part of Farage’s party’s support comes from the older age groups who are far more likely to turn out at elections.

The prompt issue is one that is a matter of some debate and we know that YouGov has been testing an approach that is similar to Survation.

Currently those sampled by YouGov do not see UKIP listed on the main voting page. To select them they have to tick “some other party” which brings up another page.

It is argued that the absence of prompting depresses the UKIP share and helps boost the Tories.

Another factor that depresses YouGov UKIP shares is the firm’s party ID weightings which reduce, in this latest poll, the “value” of those who identify themselves as Ukip voted Ukip at #GE2010 by more than 75%.

How voters for “others” get their views cut back by YouGov party ID weightings.In latest poll 92 became 23. See.. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2013

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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The changes shown are from Survation’s poll just before the May 2 local elections.

Interestingly most of the change appears to have been direct CON>UKIP switch.

Survation came under some strong criticism last year for prompting for Ukip in the same way that they prompt for the other main parties. The way things have developed since then suggests that they were right.

Labour and the Lib Dems will be relatively comfortable with these numbers because the blue team is taking the biggest hit.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Full details of the “Will Cameron face aleadership challenge?” betting from PaddyPower. bit.ly/I8PkIO See. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013

There’s definitely “something in the air” about the Conservatives at the moment and I’m one of many, I guess, who’ve had a punt on him facing a leadership challenge before GE2015.

My sense is that if it did get to this stage then he’d lose – but I’ve covered this eventiality with a smaller bet at the 5/1 that he’ll face a challenge and survive.

We are now just over 23 months from the GE2015 and, no doubt, many of those Tories who won seats in 2010 are starting to get a bit anxious, especially when they work out the implication in their individual seats of the growing Ukip shares.

If we look at the form book the Tories do bring down leaders they fear will be an electoral liability.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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Great value bet at Stan James. Cameron 10/1 to be first leader to leave pre-general election. Dave’s most at risk. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

Alas good prices don’t last long. Since I got on yesterday the odds on this bet have now tightened to 6/1. Last October I placed a 7/1 bet with William Hill that Cameron would be the first of the three leaders to go. That, unlike the Stan James bet, is not restricted to it happening pre-general election.

The front page of tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph will add to the pressure on the CON leadership. See.. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

To add to the febrile political atmosphere we now have this back at Westminster. goo.gl/09A0M twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

.

The issues voters told YouGov would impact on their vote.How do Tories appeal to both 2010 LDs &Ukip supporters? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

Above is a fascinating chart showing the issues that those sampled by YouGov said would influence their vote at the next general election.

There are two columns, I would suggest, you should focus on: the views of Ukip supporters and those of 2010 LDs. These, of course, are where most the allegiance shifting has been taking place and the level of what these electors do will more than anything determine the outcome.

The question for the Tories is how on earth do you appeal to both without alienating the other?

As can be seen UKIP supporters are much more likely to be concerned about immigration and Europe as those who voted for Nick Clegg’s party 3 years ago.

Backers of Farage are much less interested in education which, with all the Gove initiatives, is a serious concern for many 2010 LDs.

Going heavy in one direction, say Ukip voters, is going to alienate 2010 LDs who you hope, at least, would stick with the yellows in the key CON-LAB battlegrounds.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

@msmithsonpb getting some interesting spreads in polling now

— Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) May 19, 2013

The Tories are seen as being much more divided than LAB

73% tell the latest YouGov survey that the Tories are divided with just 10% saying united. 29% said LAB united to 36% saying divided

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

In the Sunday Telelgraph/ICM Wisdom Index those polled are asked to predict the percentages for the four main parties. Note that in this survey for the first time Ukip has been included.

ComRes leader ratings see Dave drop to new low & EdM to new high

Amongst other questions

If a party wants my support at the next general election, it is important to me that they offer a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU

Agree: 49%
Disagree: 27%
Don’t know: 24%

Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the next election

Agree: 31%
Disagree: 37%
Don’t know: 32%
Although 59% of Labour voters agree, 10% disagree and 31% don’t know.

The Conservative Party is more divided over Europe now than it was when John Major was Prime Minister

Agree: 57%
Disagree: 14%
Don’t know: 29%

Even CON voters are more likely to agree (43%) than disagree (26%). 74% of UKIP voters agree.

David Cameron has the authority over his party that he needs to be an effective Prime Minister

Agree: 28%
Disagree: 48%
Don’t know: 24%

Whilst the polls show Brits remain cynical about Eurovision and think it is all about politics, some of us enjoy Eurovision for that reason, for the music and the betting opportunities.

With the elimination of the Former Yugoslavian states of Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia in the semi finals, and Bosnia and Herzegovina withdrawing from the contest, due to financial reasons, there’s a potential for less Balkan bloc voting this time around which could make the final result more open.

There are many opportunities available to bet on the song contest.

The Danish entry, is the overwhelming favourite, and has been for quite some time.

Fortunately there are betting markets for a winner without Denmark or going for an each way bet with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power.

My tips, apart from the Danes, are The Germans, who are represented by Cascada, a band that has enjoyed pop success in the UK, in the past.

I’ve also backed  The Ukrainian, Norwegian and  Irish entries.

I’m quite impressed by the Irish entry, for the last couple of years by sending Jedward, I’ve wondered if the Irish really wanted to win Eurovision. Short of sending Johnny Logan, I can’t see a clearer statement from the Irish that they want to win Eurovision this year.

It wouldn’t be Eurovision, without an entry that looks like something Borat has produced, and the Romanian entry meets that category.

What of the UK’s entry, this year?

I have to confess whilst being a fan of Bonnie Tyler, like Engelbert Humperdinck, I don’t expect her to do well, I suspect some of her 80s material would have done very well in Eurovision.

I have the expectation that she’ll finish 21st or lower, and have availed myself of Paddy Power, who offer evens on such an occurrence (Englerbert finished 25th last year)

Hopefully next year the BBC will allow the viewers to choose the artist/band who represents the UK in Eurovision 2014, and maybe some of the UK’s best artists and bands decide to be shortlisted for the honour, musical giants, such as The Rolling Stones, New Order, Emeli Sandé, The Stone Roses, Depeche Mode, Steps or Radiohead, and we can go back to the halcyon days when the likes of Bucks Fizz won.

For true fans of Eurovision, the main focus of attraction of the evening is not on the artists performing, or the voting, but that the news that Abba’s Benny Andersson and Bjorn Ulvaeus have teamed up with Swedish DJ and producer Avicii to produce the anthem for this year’s ceremony.

The Eurovision Song Contest starts at 8pm BST and will be on BBC 1 and BBC1 HD.

TSE

(Whose interest in and enjoyment of all things Eurovision has disturbed his friends for many years)

Social conservatives are the key swing vote of the moment

When David Cameron was Leader of the Opposition, he put a great deal of effort into detoxifying the Conservative brand – the analysis being that in order to gain an election-winning coalition, the Conservatives needed to pull swing centrist voters from both Labour and the Lib Dems.  In as far as it went, that was true but it was far from the whole picture.

By going out of his way to ‘not scare the horses’, Cameron was making an open pitch to those who switch between the governing parties based on pragmatic issues like competence and character and seeking to minimise anti-Tory tactical voting.  The risk is that rather like New Labour, dominance in the centre comes at the price of an eroding core (not that the dominance was sufficiently achieved, as it turned out).

The result of all three established parties following the same dynamic is that Clegg, Cameron and Miliband occupy a very narrow stretch of political ground on social policy.  Arguably the gap on economics isn’t much wider, despite the intensity of the debate, but at least the sound-money / go-for-growth debate satisfies most points of view.  By contrast, none of the three leaderships have much to offer to social conservatives.

The Lib Dems don’t have to do so and probably couldn’t even if they tried: their social liberalism is an inherent part of their identity.  By contrast, both Labour and the Conservatives have sections of their traditional support bases whose views on social policy are far removed from their leaderships’ metropolitan liberal consensus.

Politics, as nature, abhors a vacuum and it’s in that space which UKIP is now finding support and success.  The county council elections across large parts of traditionally Tory country demonstrated their ability to win votes from the Blues but a council win on Thursday for UKIP in what had previously been a very safe Rotherham Labour seat, as well as strong Purple showings in parliamentary by-elections over the last year show that Farage’s party is winning support from those who feel alienated by and disenfranchised from the three main parties, none of whom seem to stand for their values.

Which make the comments from Defence Secretary Philip Hammond that the government has spent too much time on gay marriage particularly timely and notable.

Nothing is riling social conservatives more at the moment than gay marriage and recognition of that is the first step in reaching out to them. 

Winning, or winning back, their support will be critical to either Tory or Labour success at the next general election, not least because both Thatcher’s and Blair’s election-winning coalitions included many such voters.

It certainly won’t be easy for any party leader to attract social conservatives while simultaneously winning the support of enough of those who float between parties and those who have only a weak intention to vote at all – but then as someone who should know once said, if you can’t ride two horses, you shouldn’t be in the circus.

David Herdson

The money goes on Phillip Hammond for next CON leader.Hills move his price from 10/1 to 8/1. May is 4/1 Boris 5/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2013

Henry G Manson on those FOR the EU

This week we’ve seen growing numbers of politicians past and present suggest that they’d be prepared to vote for Britain to leave the European Union in a referendum. Public opinion is currently leaning towards exit. The Prime Minister has declared he wants Britain to remain within the EU on new negotiated terms, but his own party is so divided that he can’t be relied upon to make a passionate case for this. So let’s look at the campaign wants to fight to keep Britain’s role in Europe.

The ‘British Influence’ campaign was launched in January this year. It’s funded entirely from the private sector. Its three front men are Lord Mandelson, Danny Alexander and Ken Clarke. They are a peculiar choice. All three are associated with the failed campaign to get Britain to join the Euro and all three come with notable baggage. 

Tony Blair once said that New Labour’s modernisation wouldn’t be complete until the Labour Party learned to love Peter Mandelson. It’s still waiting. Mandelson is associated with the worst excesses of New Labour, has a well cultivated reputation as a Machiavellian schemer and is disliked by Labour supporters and trade unionists. Mandelson’s support for David Miliband in the Labour Leadership contest caused two previously wavering MPs to Ed Miliband’s campaign. Having been European Commissioner, government minister and member of the House of Lords, Mandelson is seen as part of the Establishment the public are so wary of and disenchanted with. His recent remarks that the last Labour government ‘sent out search parties’  to increase immigration suggest a man that is out of touch with the public mood. Politics is increasingly in issue of trust. Does anyone in the UK actually trust Lord Mandelson about anything? 

Danny Alexander is a Cabinet Minister in a Treasury team implementing austerity policies. While George Osborne keeps his own profile down it’s often Alexander that is wheeled out to justify the latest unpopular cut. His party has seen its political support collapse since forming a Coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. Alexander may even struggle to keep hold of his own parliamentary seat. Previously Alexander’s experience included five years working at the Britain in Europe campaign. Given the organisation’s comprehensive failure to successfully make the case in positive economic times with a popular Prime Minister in support, it is hard to see what can be achieved now.

Ken Clarke is the most popular of the three however his decision to describe UKIP as ‘clowns’  backfired when his own party decided it needed to show the party and its supporters greater respect. Clarke is well in the last stages of his political career that would have arguably led to greater success had he not been so at odds with his party over his pro-European beliefs. Like the UKIP leader Clarke is one of few national politicians you see comfortably having a pint. But his best times are behind him.

The campaign to keep Britain in the European Union was always going to be tough. At a time when politicians are mistrusted why on Earth would you gamble on three politicians representing your cause to the public? The decision to make Peter Mandelson and Danny Alexander in two of the front men for the campaign already looks spectacularly ill-judged.

‘British Influence’ does not look to be equipped to deal with the very real economic, social and political insecurities and anxieties many voters are experiencing right now.  If Nigel Farage were to handpick his opponents I’m sure both Mandelson and Alexander would be top of the list. If this is all the pro-European lot has to offer then I’ll be expecting a sizeable vote for an EU exit when the time comes.

Henry G Manson

I’ve just put a bet on at Ladbrokes on 2013 general election at 16/1. Hard to see how the CON & LDs can divorce without early election.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013

A 16/1 bet equates to a 5.8% chance of a 2013 general election. I think chances might be higher. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013

Coalition breakup = Early general election

The main story in the Times this morning is a report that preparatory work is going on in Downing Street to deal with the consequences of a break-up of the coalition.

The report seems to be based on wishful thinking that it would be the LDs who would want to close it down not the Tories. Fat chance. It is simply not going to happen that way. The yellows are in this for the duration and if there is a break-up then Cameron and his team will be the instigators.

@msmithsonpb To avoid an election when they’re polling in single digits

— Toby Young (@toadmeister) May 17, 2013

A key part of the story is that post divorce the LDs would allow the Tories to carry on with a supply and confidence arrangement. That is naive in the extreme. Clegg and his party would be getting all the negatives of keeping the blues in power without anything in return. The LDs would take gamble of an early election.

If the Tories want to end the coalition there will be NO supply and confidence arrangement with the LDs.

The most likely outcome would be that EdM would put down a vote of confidence which all the 57 LD MPs would support.

The blues might find a way of securing DUP backing for the vote – but at a heavy price. Thereafter it is hard seeing how the Tories could support their numbers.

The LAB-LD grouping could also expect backing from George Galloway, the Green, and Plaid. Those who watched the National Theatre’s live broadcast of “This House” last night will appreciate the machinations that would be involved.

My view is that a coalition breakup instigated by the Tories would lead to an immediate general election. My 16/1 bet on a 2013 general election might just be a winner.

Mike Smithson

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Harry Hayfield’s guide to the action

Coker on Somerset (Deferred Election)
Last Council Election (2013): Con 28, Lib Dem 18, Lab 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2 (Conservative majority of 2)
Last Ward Election (2009): Lib Dem 1,454 (45%) Con 1,365 (43%) Green 249 (8%) Ind 131 (4%)
Last Ward Election (2009 Notional): Lib Dem 1,687 (46%) Con 1,559 (43%) Green 271 (7%) Ind 151 (4%)

Somerset has always been a Conservative / Liberal Democrat battleground going back as far as 1989. In those elections the Lib Dems (or to give them their proper title the Social and Liberal Democrats) only managed to win 379 council seats and were the largest parties on Gloucestershire and Cornwall councils. In Somerset they were in second place in 1989 but with the Conservatives having an overall majority of 5 there was very little they could do (as was demonstrated at the 1992 general election when Somerset elected just one Liberal Democrat MP in the form of the Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown). However, just twelve months later, the effect of the United Kingdom being thrown out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism on the popularity of the Conservative party was demonstrated when the Conservatives lost eighteen seats across the county with the Liberal Democrats making twenty one gains and with that gaining overall control of the council. They held onto the council in 1997 (held at the same time as the general election when the county of Somerset elected three Liberal Democrats and made Wells and Bridgwater into Conservative marginals). By the 2001 elections (when Taunton was regained by the Conservatives at the general) the Liberal Democrats lost control of the county only to regain it in 2005 (as Taunton flipped to the Liberal Democrats again). However in 2009, the Conservatives sought (and got) revenge for their 1993 defeat by inflicting nine losses on the Liberal Democrats and gaining overall control and making confident predictions that Somerset would elect at least four Conservative MP’s. You can imagine their disappointment then when at the 2010 general election, it was the Liberal Democrats who won four seats in Somerset after gaining Wells from the Conservatives (helped in no small way by a duck house). And with UKIP making their presence felt at the county elections earlier this month, Somerset could now be called a three party battleground (Con, Lib Dem and UKIP) and following those results Coker has the potential to do anything it likes!

Melcombe Regis on Weymouth and Portland (Con Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Con 14, Lab 11, Lib Dem 8, Ind 3 (No Overall Control, Con short by 5)

Local Elections 2010 – 2012

Weymouth and Portland (named after the seaside town and the local stone) is one of those rare things, a southern council that operates the third rule. As a result we can see how the parties have done going back to the 2003 local elections and those elections were, to be honest, not all that bad for Labour. Yes, the council was hung but Labour had the largest grouping (Lab 13, Lib Dem 11, Con 6, Ind 5) and at those elections was one of only nine southern councils to have Labour as the largest party on the council. So the fact that the following year they made four losses to the Lib Dems three gains was quite galling. As the third Labour term carried on so Labour became more and more unpopular sinking to a low of just four councillors in 2008 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats battling it out for the lead. Since 2010 though, Labour have been recovering and are no doubt planning on becoming the largest party on the council at next year’s local elections, but just as we saw in Somerset UKIP cannot be ruled out of springing more surprises.

Rawmarsh on Rotherham (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Lab 58, Con 4, Ind 1 (Labour majority of 53)

Local Elections 2010 – 2012

As was demonstrated in the Rotherham parliamentary by-election, when you have a virtual one party state then people will look for alternative means to protest (which might explain why the BNP polled 8%, Respect 8% and the English Democrats 3%, so therefore I think it’s safe to say that Labour HOLD with some party that only a few people have heard of coming second.

Anti-CON tactical voting could be much greater

The big polling news yesterday was that in the Ipsos-MORI monthly phone survey the LAB lead amongst those certain to vote was down to just 4%. Suddenly a glimmer of hope appeared to be opening up for the Tories. Yet when these numbers were put into the Electoral Calculus HoC seat predictor LAB had a majority of 30 with a vote share of just 34%. That is 3% below what the Tories achieved in 2010 when they were 19 MPs short of a majority.

Seat projections like these put the focus on one of the basic characteristics of how Britain’s first past the post electoral system operates: it sets the bar for a LAB majority at a much lower level than for CON leading to inevitable shouts of “foul”.

Part, but only a small part, is down to constituency sizes. On average in 2010 LAB seats had smaller electorates, 68,612 than CON ones (72,435) but that gap is much smaller than is widely perceived.

A second measure is more striking as can be seen in the second comparison on the above chart – the average number of votes cast in LAB seats, 41,842 is considerably lower than the 49,436 that we saw in 2010. This is largely because turnout levels are significantly lower in LAB seats – see bottom chart.

There’s also another factor – what happens in seats where the parties are third. The Tories pile up higher vote levels than LAB boosting overall national vote shares but making no contribution in terms of seats won.

Compared with GE1997, GE2001 and GE2005 there was much less anti-CON tactical voting at GE2010. That could return next time particularly in the 100 or so key marginals where the election will be decided. This was shown in some of the Ashcroft marginals polling when people were asked what they would do in their own constituncies.

I live in the 20th most vulnerable Tory seat to Labour and the level of activity by the red team even at this stage is impressive. LAB canvassing teams are going out every week and they are putting a special on reaching known LD supporters. The Tories, it should be noted have been largely invisible.

Mike Smithson

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This has be said many times before but it is worth emphasising – how UKIP is most popular amongst the older age groups – the segment of the electorate that is much more likely to vote.

The chart, based on this month’s Ipsos-MORI data, shows the proportion saying they are certain to vote in each age segment and the proportion saying they would vote UKIP if there was a general election tomorrow.

It has been observed in past elections that the oldest age segment is generally the least likely to change their minds which looks promising for UKIP. Whether that applies in GE2015 could be decisive.

The big reason why this poll, with the LAB lead down to just 3%, looked so bad for EdM is that Ipsos-MORI, uniquely amongst British pollsters, only counts the views of those saying they are 100% certain in its headline figures.

The poll that we see five times a week, the YouGov daily poll for News International, does not even ask how likely it is that respondents will vote. It’s figures today are very different from Ipsos-MORI with CON 30, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 14% which will certainly ease the jitters amongst the red team.

Mike Smithson

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Will this help the Tories win GE2015 or help them lose it? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

The Ipsos-MORI voting figures showing LAB with bigger lead amongst all who had voting preference.Ukip on 11% twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

Even with LAB’s down to 34% with a 3% lead they’d still get an overall maj Electoral Calculus goo.gl/kvYwh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

Update – the latest Ipsos-MORI leader ratings

Latest leader ratings from Ipsos-MORI with Farage out scoring all. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

Bigger YouGov shares for Ukip coming up?They appear to now include Ukip in first prompt. See this from @redukipper twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

If the firm’s critics are correct then expect bigger Ukip shares

Above is a screen shot of YouGov polling questionnaire which shows that Ukip is now included in the prompt on the main voting intention question.

Until now those polled wanting to say Ukip have had to click the “some other party” option which, it is argued, has compressed the shares for Farage’s party being reported by the UK’s most prolific political pollster.

We don’t know whether this is just a test or a permanent change and I have emailed the firm asking for clarification.

Certainly as Ukip has risen it has become increasingly hard to argue that it shouldn’t be there on the first screen alongside the other main parties

The big question is whether this will lead to bigger shares for Ukip from the firm that carries out at least five national voting intention surveys per week.

There had been a lot of debate recently on the issue led by newbie pollster Survation which started prompting for Ukip last year resulting in bigger shares for the purples in its polls.

If those who’ve been pressing for this change from YouGov are correct then we should see bigger Ukip numbers.

This is today’s YouGov. Whether or not it used the new prompt I do not know.

Today’s YouGov/Sun poll has CON 30, LAB 40,LD 10, UKIP 15

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

Update: there’s been no change in way YouGov prompts Ukip

YouGov tell me that there has been no charge in way it polls Ukip.The screen-shot in my Tweet putting it on main prompt was from a test

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 15, 2013

Mike Smithson

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Harry Hayfield’s historical prespective

The main news narrative over in recent days has been “Britain is a four party system country” following the success of UKIP in the county council elections, I, however would counter that by saying “Britain is in fact a thirteen party system” and hasn’t been a four party system for well over twenty years

Parties that have scored more than 1% of the national vote at a UK general election since 1950
Great Britain only
1950: Con, Lab, Lib
1951: Con, Lab, Lib
1955: Con, Lab, Lib
1959: Con, Lab, Lib
1964: Con, Lab, Lib
1966: Con, Lab, Lib
1970: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
February 1974: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
October 1974: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
1979: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
1983: Con, Lab, Lib, SDP, SNP
1987: Con, Lab, Lib, SDP, SNP
1992: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP
1997: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Referendum Party, SNP
2001: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP
2005: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, Green
2010: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, BNP

Today, there are eleven parties at Westminster with at least one MP (Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Plaid, SNP, DUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance, Green, Respect) and taking in account the Assemblies and Parliaments across the UK, you can add the Traditional Unionist Voice, UKIP and the various Independents in Holyrood, Stormont and Westminster whch gives you a grand total of thirteen parties across the United Kingdom (and that’s just those with elected parliamentarians). Go down to the local level and you can add various shades of Independents, Ratepayers, English Democrats, Liberals, Health Campaigners, Mebynon Kernow, Social Democrats and the Scottish Socialists, giving the UK a staggering twenty political parties with elected members to chose from. And that could mean that the once uncommon sight of the three way marginal may give way to the five way marginal (as seen in history)

Election 1983: Wrexham: Lab 34.27%, Con 33.37%, Alliance 29.71%
Election 1987: Brecon and Radnor: Alliance 34.81%, Con 34.67%, Lab 29.22%
Election 1992: Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber: Lib Dem 26.04%, Lab 25.14%, SNP 24.67%, Con 22.62%
Election 1997: Shrewsbury and Atcham: Lab 37.01%, Con 33.99%, Lib Dem 25.00%
Election 2001: Moray: SNP 30.32%, Lab 25.07%, Con 23.10%, Lib Dem 15.72%
Election 2005: Watford: Lab 33.55%, Lib Dem 31.23%, Con 29.62%
Election 2010: Norwich South: Lib Dem 29.35%, Lab 28.70%, Con 22.92%, Green 14.92%
Election 2015 (based on by-elections): Cambridgeshire South: Lab 24.43%, Con 24.29%, Lib Dem 17.86%, Ind 16.26%, UKIP 14.90%

Harry Hayfield

Last week in a thread on which party would come out with most votes at next year’s Euro elections Richard Nabavi suggested that the best value bet was the 10/1 which is still available from Ladbrokes on the Conservatives.

His reasoning was that these are a set of elections where the Tories have traditionally done well irrespective of how they’ve been performing in national Westminster polls.

Even, as the interactive chart above shows, in the dark days for the party in 1999 when Blair’s Labour was at its peak, the blues won nationally on votes. In 2004 it was the same and, as expected, they did well last time out in 2009.

Every set of EU elections since the party list voting system was introduced has seen the Tories come out on top. Why should 2014 be any different?

The betting favourite for next year is Ukip which has managed to seize the opportunity created by the party list voting system. But isn’t there a strong possibility that they are now going to be subject to much greater scrutiny. They’ve won lots of council sea and they now need to perform as elected representatives.

As we are seeing at the moment the backgrounds of those who won on May 2nd are being examined closely by their opponents and unfortunate blogs, Facebook entries and Tweets are being unearthed all the time.

Also the EU narrative is changing and who knows what it will look like in a year’s time?

All betting is a gamble but my view is that the Tories have a better than 9% chance of doing it. The current price is a good bet.

Mike Smithson

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