Does Dave need better rhetoric on the Lansley plan?

A sure sign that you are losing an argument is when, like Cameron did at PMQs today, you accuse your opponent of “being opportunistic”.

After recent successes raising the NHS reforms it was clear that Ed Miliband was going to do the same today. The problem is that Cameron hasn’t found a way of dealing with it in a manner that resonates. He needs much more refined rhetoric.

Whenever the issue if the Tories and the NHS comes up I am reminded of David Herdson’s excellent PB post from last May in which he wrote:-

“..Gaining tentative public trust here (on the NHS) was a key part of the Tories’ detoxification strategy. As such, simply running it for five years without controversy would have firmed up public confidence, albeit at the cost of accepting Labour’s structures and plans.

Reform was therefore something the Conservatives chose to try, rather than was forced into doing. That was a significant gamble, not just because the reforms themselves might not prove successful but because the political capital placed on it would be lost even if the reforms never made it to the statute book…”

The problem is, of course, that there’s so much suspicion on the part of many voters about the Conservative commitment to the NHS that almost inevitably the party won’t be given the benefit of the doubt. As David says “running it for five years without controversy would have firmed up public confidence”.

It also inevitable that Ed is going to continue pressing on this and the signs are that he’s on the right side of public opinion.

Looking forward Labour are almost certainly going to make the NHS a key general election issue and whatever goes wrong in the next three and a quarter years will be blamed on the Lansley reform plan.

The Tories need to do something and fast.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Could this be a difficult CON-LD issue?

There’s a report in the Telegraph this morning that could open up the divide on tax between the coalition partnets.

Under the heading “50p tax rate ‘failing to boost revenues” the paper reports that there was a £509m drop in tax paid by those paying by self-assessment last month with the suggestion that high earners have simply adjusted their affairs to get round the rate – first imposed towards the end of the Labour government.

Robert Winnett and James Kirkup write: “The self-assessment returns from January, when most income tax is paid by the better-off, have been eagerly awaited by the Treasury and government ministers as they provide the first evidence of the success, or failure, of the 50p rate. It is the first year following the introduction of the 50p rate which had been expected to boost tax revenues from self-assessment by more than £1 billion.

Although the official statistics do not disclose how much money was paid at the 50p rate of tax, the figures indicate that it is falling short of the money the levy was expected to raise.

A Treasury source said the relatively poor revenues from self-assessment returns was partly down to highly-paid individuals arranging their affairs to avoid paying the 50p rate.”

It was argued all along that this could be the consequence of making the tax increase for higher earners permanent. Now, apparently, there’s the data to back it up.

Politically this is difficult for all parties. The general line of clobbering the rich goes down well in the polling and it’s not so easy communicating the message that abolishing the top rate increases the tax take.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Welcome once again to the cafe – our informal overnight thread where you set the agenda.

This is the latest from the Gallup daily tracking poll in the GOP race.

Republican presidential preference, national trend (Gallup tracking) #gop twitter.com/pollreport/sta…

— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) February 21, 2012

Have a good night.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Recent Threads

And Gingrich could be struggling in his home state

Above is the latest projection from Nate Silvers 538 blog at the New York Times and shows his latest projection for the crucial Michigan primary that takes place a week today. As can be seen he’s giving it to Romney by the smallest of margins.

A new Mitchell Research poll taken yesterday has Romney 2 points ahead. Just over a week ago the same pollster had Santorum with a 9% lead.

What seems to be making a huge difference here is that this is the state where Mitt was born and grew up and where his father won the governorship twice. According to the Mitchell poll 25% of voters say they are “more likely” to vote for Romney because of this – a finding that could explain why the betting favourite is not seeing such turnarounds in other states or, indeed, in national polls.

Meanwhile there’s a tight three-way battle going on in Georgia – which votes on “Super Tuesday” a fortnight today. Nate makes Romney the leader here but only by a whisker over Gingrich and Santorum. Georgia is, of course, Gingrich’s home state and it could be a fatal blow if he didn’t win.

One factor that’s worth noting is that Santorum has out-performed his poll ratings in all the states where he’s been in contention.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Let Scotland go and compete.Everyone would win.

— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) February 20, 2012

From distance, Santorum doing great.Values really do count in America, and not sneered at as in parts of Europe. Win Michigan game over.

— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) February 20, 2012

Alex Salmond clearly most brilliant politicianin U.K.Gave Cameron back of his hand this week.Loved by Scots.

— Rupert Murdoch(@rupertmurdoch) February 19, 2012

How much influence does he still have?

There’ve been a couple of tweets overnight from Rupurt Murdoch giving his views of coming elections battles on both sides of the Atlantic. As can be seen one is pro-Scottish independence and the other is about the front-runner in the Republican nomination race, Rick Santorym.

In the Scottish referendum battle Murdoch’s view could not be me clear – the media magnate is backing the YES to independence option in the coming Scottish referendum.

Scotland’s biggest selling newspaper, News International’s the Scottish Sun, endorsed the SNP ahead of later May’s Holyrood election which saw the party being returned with an overall majority.

That was before, of course, the ‘spot of bother’ that Murdoch’s newspaper group got into a couple of months later over the hacking affair.

A key part of the referendum campaign will be about turnout and this is where the Scottish Sun could make a critical difference encouraging those demographic groups who are less likely to vote.

The downside for the YES campaign is that the ongoing troubles that the Murdoch empire might undermine its influence and could possibly be counter-productive.

In the US, of course, Murdoch has a huge media empire including some key newspapers and, of course, Fox News. His point about perceptions of values issues being different in the UK is an acute one.

Whatever Rupert has come out of the past week fighting and we shouldn’t underestimate him.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Welcome once again to the cafe – our informal overnight thread where you set the agenda.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

The first telephone poll of the month, ICM for the Guardian is out and sees the Tory five point lead of last month become a one point LAB lead tonight.

This follows a difficult period for the coalition particularly on the Lansley health bill. On that 52% say that the bill should be dropped with 33% saying the plans should be stuck to.

Whatever the apparent splits within the blue, reported by Tim Montgomerie at ConHome, are clearly not helping.

Other polls are expected this evening and this post will be up-dated.

UPDATE – Populus/Times has CON 37(-): LAB 39(+1): LD 11 (-2)

So the direction of travel, if not the numbers, very much the same as ICM.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Recent Threads

But Santorum has 22% lead in favourability ratings

There’s a new poll out from Public Policy Polling on next week’s crucial Michigan primary which many pundits are suggesting could be the most decisive of the whole nomination campaign.

This is, of course, Romney’s home state where his father was once governor and which he won comfortably in the primary in 2008. He really needs a victory there to head off his critics.

As can be seen from the numbers Santorum has dropped a couple of points to 37% on what PPP recorded last week. The big move has been the increase in Romney’s position up to 33% by a huge nine points.

The firm is the first to have carried out two Michigan polls since the campaign stared in earnest and so this is the first time we are able to measure with the same pollster the impact of Romney’s $7m advertising campaign

Interestingly, and perhaps most significantly, the Romney effort has done nothing to blunt Santorum’s favourability ratings. Last week he was 67/23 and these numbers remain the same. Romney sees his favourability numbers move up from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35).

The pollster notes: “What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.

Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).

Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).

What’s clear is this is a very close battle which is too close to call. There is also this from the pollster about Arizona, which votes on the same day, and Washington state which is four days later.

MI may be moving on a different track than elsewhere because our AZ numbers (out tomorrow) and WA ones (out Tuesday) are good for Santorum

— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) February 20, 2012

@MikeSmithsonOGH

So far we’ve hardly covered on PB the big election in Europe this year – the battle for the French presidency – which takes place in only a couple of months.

This is a huge contest as Nicolas Sarkozy attempts to hold on against a fierce challenge by socialist leader, Francois Hollande, and will get lots of media attention in the UK. Last time there was a lot of interest in the betting with Betfair, in particular, having a lively and generally liquid market.

Many of us like the flexibility that exchange betting offers with the ability to move out of positions and even make profits before we have an outcome. I had been deferring coverage until the Betfair market opened.

Well the bad news is that there will be no Betfair French election market. The firm has not given me a reason but my guess is that this is because the French government has banned betting exchanges and doesn’t want to fall foul of the law.

When you are in France now, as I discovered in the summer, you are unable to get into the firm’s website – so if you have a lot of open betting positions find another country for your vacation.

The polling looks awful for Nicolas Sarkozy and the Socialist leader, Francois Hollande, is the 1/14 favourite with Ladbrokes

@MikeSmithsonOGH

How serious is this?

There’ve been dramatic moves in the Republican nomination betting during the past few hours which have seen the price on the former governor of Texas, Jeb Bush, move in from 70/1 on Betfair to about 20/1 now.

This put the brother of the last Republican party president into the third favourite slot for the nomination behind Romney and Santorum even though he is not a declared runner and is not on the ballots in any of the primaries.

What’s set this going has been a report on ABC News that a “prominent senatator” will publicly call for for another candidate, most likely Jeb bush, to enter the race if Romney fails to win his home state of Michigan in the primary a week on Tuesday. This is from the ABC news report:-

“If Romney cannot win Michigan, we need a new candidate,” said the senator, who has not endorsed anyone and requested anonymity.

The senator believes Romney will ultimately win in Michigan but says he will publicly call for the party to find a new candidate if he does not.

“We’d get killed,” the senator said if Romney manages to win the nomination after he failed to win the state in which he grew up.

It would have to be somebody else, the senator said. Who? “Jeb Bush,” the former Florida governor..“

At the end of January Jeb Bush refused all requests to endorse Romney in the Florida primary – an act which of itself set of speculation about his ambitions.

This morning I got on Jeb at 70/1.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

The one change is within the margin of error.The only noteworthy thing is that this is the first time since October 2010 that the blues have led the reds.

This poll by ComRes online for te Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror is the first non-YouGov survey this month.

Unless there’s a major upset the general election takes place on May 7 2015 and I doubt if these numbers will affect any betting markets.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Will he be a winner once again?

An unusual year with more famous names than I can remember, two inexplicable omissions (‘Senna’ and Tilda Swinton) and a silent movie which could sweep the board. Talking of omissions congratulations to Mrs ‘Marquee Mark’ for her work on Coriolanus. As good a film of a shakespeare play as I’ve seen which could easily have been nominated in up to three categories. So here are the nominations followed by my two euros worth…..

Best Film. War Horse, The Artist, Moneyball, The Descendants, The Tree of Life, Midnight in Paris, The Help, Hugo, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

In a strong field my film of the year is ‘The Artist’.

Best Director. The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, The Tree of Life.

I’d give it to Michel Hazavanicus for ‘The Artist’. Having said that Hazavanicus speaks French so don’t be surprised if home grown Scorcese is chosen for the worthy but soporific ‘Hugo’.

Best Actor. Demian Bichir, George Clooney, Jean Dujardin, Gary Oldman, Brad Pitt.

My money’s going on Jean Dujardin for his compelling silent performance in ‘The Artist’. However as he’s another French speaker and George Clooney isn’t it could go to Clooney who in any event was as good as I’ve seen him in ‘The Descendants’.

Best Actress. Glenn Close, Viola Davis, Rooney Mara, Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams.

A category of impersonators…. Michelle Williams in ‘My Week with Marilyn’ looked the part but without Marilyn’s appeal. Rooney Mara as the punk hacker in ‘Dragon Tattoo’ was brilliant but an exact replica of Noomy Rapace in the Danish original. Viola Davis as the put upon black maid in ‘The Help’ was good but it’s a well trodden path……

….and then there’s Meryl! The resemblance was uncanny. I thought I was having a nightmare. She didn’t give us an insight into Maggie’s persona in the way Helen Mirren did in “The Queen” but as the script was a fantasy it hardly mattered. Dennis was an angel, Carol was caring and Mark was her rock. I was just waiting for Pinochet to turn up as Father Christmas. Anyway her mimicry was genius so she deserves the Oscar and one last chorus of ‘Maggie Maggie Maggie Out Out Out’ would be a fitting finale.

Best Supporting Actor. Kenneth Branagh, Jonah Hill, Nick Nolte. Christopher Plummer, Max Von Sydow.

Talking of impersonators……. Kenneth Branagh did a brilliant Lawrence Olivier in ‘My Week with Marilyn’ but the part was small. So I’d go for Christopher Plummer in ‘Beginners’ for his funny and moving performance as the terminally ill father who shocks his son by finding solace with a young gay lover.

Best Supporting Actress. Berenice Bejo, Jessica Chastain, Melissa McCarthy, Janet McTeer, Octavia Spencer.

I’m going for Berenice Bejo for her sparkling performance in ‘The Artist’ but won’t be too surprised if it goes to Octavia Spencer the maid who cooked THE pie in ‘The Help’!

Best Animation. A Cat in Paris, Chico and Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Rango, Puss in Boots.

Rango!

Best Cinematography. The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse.

Emmanuel Lubezki for the super-stylish ‘Tree of Life’.

Best art direction. The Artist, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hollows 2, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, War Horse.

For the scale and craftsmanship I’d go for ‘Hugo’ .

Best Original Screenplay. The Artist, Bridesmaid, Margin Call, Midnight in Paris, A Separation.

‘The Artist’ . A story perfectly told without dialogue. Woody Allen could be in with a shout for ‘Midnight in Paris’.

Best Adapted screenplay. The Descendants, Hugo, Ides of March, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.

My two favourites were ‘The Descendants’ and ‘The Ides of March’. One with Clooney the actor the other with him as actor/director. I’d go for the very watchable ‘Descendants’ by a nose.

Best costume Design. Anonymous, The Artist, Hugo, Jane Eyre, W.E.

A toss up between the costume drama ‘Anonymous’ (‘Shakespeare’ was really the Earl of Oxford!) and the batty ‘W.E’ where Madonna found a new twist on the Edward and Mrs Simpson story by adding a Russian janitor! The Americans like English costume drama so possibly ‘Anonymous’.

Best Film Editing. The Artist, The Descendants, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball.

‘Hugo’ for it’s scale and the magnificent train crash.

Best Visual Effects. Harry Potter, Hugo, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Transformers.

I’m torn between ‘Hugo’ and ‘Rise of the Planet of the Apes’. Probably ‘Hugo’ again for the train crash.

Best Sound Editing. Drive, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Transformers, War Horse.

I’d go for ‘Drive’. It deserved more nominations.

Best Sound Mixing. Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, Moneyball, Transformers, War Horse.

The very stylish ‘Girl with the Dragon Tattoo’ .

Best Make-up. Albert Nobbs, Harry Potter, The Iron lady.

‘The Iron Lady’ The resemblance was uncanny.

Original Music. Adventures of Tintin, The Artist, Hugo, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse.

‘The Artist’.

Do this year’s double local elections provide a return route?

If the bookies are right, Boris Johnson is well-placed for a second term as London’s Mayor. If the pollsters most recent results are right, it’s too close to call. Those two things aren’t necessarily contradictory – the polls reflect people’s intentions now whereas the bookies are taking bets on what they expect to happen in May.

It may be that Johnson will campaign more effectively than Livingston, or that the approaching Olympics will benefit the incumbent. Alternatively, the odds may be in part reflecting the weight of money being placed.

Whatever, the fact remains that in party terms, the Conservatives are polling substantially behind Labour in London in Westminster voting intention, and that while Boris out-performs his party’s rating (and Livingstone under-performs his), there’s still a reasonable chance that Ken might win.

If so, what then happens to Boris? One intriguing possibility is opened up by the second set of local elections this year, in November. That’s when the police commissioners will be elected, as well as several big-city mayors (subject to local referenda to be held in May). There has already been interest shown in both sets of positions by various Labour politicians, but then they’re not in power nationally and this would be one route back to office for them.

For a Tory or Lib Dem MP to leave parliament to take up the role would be a greater sacrifice but one or more might be tempted to give it a go anyway. If so, and if elected, that would then bring about the prospect of the sort of by-election that a defeated Boris might be interested in should he harbour ambitions to return to Westminster. For that matter, there may be a string of by-elections next Winter resulting from MP’s having to stand down to take up Commissionerships or Mayoralities.

As an aside, another factor to throw into that mix is the impending boundary review. In areas where one party predominates and where seats are being cut some MPs might not fancy their chances in selection battles against local colleagues and the executive local positions may look like an attractive avoidance strategy. Likewise for those who face the prospect of their majority being slashed by new boundaries.

There are a lot of ‘ifs’ there but none of them are particularly outrageous. To summarise, six events would need to take place: Boris would need to lose in May, one or more Tory MP would need to choose to contest a police commissionership (presumably for one of the South East forces), they would need to win, Boris would have to be interested in the vacancy, he would have to be selected, then he would have to win the seat.

Were such a run of events to take place, there’d inevitably be speculation about Boris as a future Conservative leader. It would be misplaced. Whether or not he ends up back in the House this parliament (and he probably won’t), he has a lot of ground to make up yet to be taken sufficiently seriously as a politician to become a contender. There’s also the strong suspicion that he’s too much of a maverick and not a team player: fine in a mayor – in fact to be encouraged – a problem in a front-bencher in Westminster.

Be that as it may, the double round of local elections this year creates the possibility of Boris livening things up more than once.

David Herdson

Recent Threads

Have we got out of the habit of buying papers?

When the News of the World was closed last July there was a big effort from other titles to try to grab a share of what was the biggest selling Sunday paper.

The latest circulation numbers, see here, suggest they had some success but they failed to pick up a lot of the lost sales. The Sunday Mirror, the People, the Sunday Express, the Star on Sunday and the Mail on Sunday all rose – but in December all of them saw declining sales.

So how’s Rupert’s bold new venture, The Sun on Sunday, going to do? Is it being launched into a market in terminal decline. Have we just got out of the habit of buying papers?

There’s another factor. One of the reasons for buying the old News of the World was the depth and quality of its investigative journalism. How’s the Sun on Sunday going to do in the new more controlling environment for the press?

It will be interesting to watch although nobody would bet against Rupe.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

How come all the initial errors are in his favour?

If you think that we have been here before we have. After the debacle in Iowa at the start of January which led to Mitt Romney’s victory on the night being taken away from him there now must be a good chance that the same is about to happen in Maine.

On Saturday night there was an enormous sigh of relief at Romney’s Boston HQ when the news came through from the small state of Maine that their man had been declared the winner by a margin of 194 votes.

If it had gone the other way then his February tally would have been four losses out of four – three of them in states he had won in 2008 and which simply had not been anticipated.

Within a short time, though, the Maine outcome was being questioned. Voting in Washington county had been postponed because of the weather and the tally from other parts of the state was being put in doubt. In several places the official results showed a nil outcome even though the totals had been sent through and with others the wrong numbers had been recorded.

Now the state party has ordered a recount and that information should be available today. On top of that the postponed caucus in Washington county is set to take place tomorrow and you can bet that the participation level will be a lot higher than if it had been last weekend.

So there must be a reasonable chance that Maine will go to Ron Paul. Romney will look a lot less invincible than he did after Florida and he could go into the final elections of February have gone through the month with four defeats.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Council by-elections and the GOP race

Welcome again to PB’s open thread which we run on most nights. Tonight’s main political action will be in three council by-elections – two in Leicestershire and one in Horsham in West Sussex.

The latter looks like a solid Tory hold, Labour was only 8% behind last time in the Leicestershire NW ward while in the third, at Oadby, the Lib Dems are defending. This is a straight blue yellow spat with no Labour candidate. In 2011 the LD got 57.9%

There’s a good preview over on Britian-Votes.co.uk.

Meanwhile this is the trend in the GOP race:-

Republican presidential preference, national trend (Gallup tracking) #gop twitter.com/pollreport/sta…

— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) February 16, 2012

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Will Dave have furthered the unionist cause?

The PM, David Cameron, is in Edinburgh in what appears to be the start of the referendum campaign. Still to be agreed, of course, is the date and, potentially more controversial, the question that will be on the ballot.

Clearly both camps want the wording that will be most favourable to their sides of the argument.

There is a huge danger here as we saw in Alex Salmond’s speech in London yesterday. He’ll want to turn differences over the process into key elements of the independence cause.

Last night his talk was about respect with an insistence that the final decision over process is made in Edinburgh. Cameron has to play this very carefully and not sound as though he is telling Scotland what to do.

The challenge for Cameron, of course, is that his party has almost become an endangered species ,certainly in terms of Westminster seats, north of the border and there’s nothing that Salmond would like more than to make this a battle with London. Cameron will be portrayed as the epitome of Englishness in the hope that this will be a negative with Scottish voters.

Who is going to win? Hard to say but it’s going to be a fascinating battle.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Is Balls starting to have an impact on VAT?

The best thing for Dave & co about the latest unemployment figures was that they came out while Parliament was not sitting so he didn’t have to face Ed Miliband at PMQs.

For on top of the growth figures and the hint of a credit downgrade from Moodys there was a lot for the opposition leader to play with if the parliamentary timetable had given him the chance.

The “worst for sixteen years” line taking us back to the last Conservative prime minister is discomforting and there are no easy answers.

Perhaps the one political plus for the government in all of this until now has been that Labour has yet to build a convincing alternative on the economy.

But Cameron/Osborne can’t assume that that will last and Ed Balls appears to be getting his act together better. He seems to have had a good couple of days and his piece in today’s Mirror calling for a VAT cut could resonate.

The real problem of the unemployment figures as a measure is that people can relate to it more than apparently abstract concepts like GDP trends and the potential for the government to get the blame is greater.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

There’s so much polling coming out of the US at the moment that it’s really quite hard keeping up. But I did like this because it sums up the big picture:-

#WH2012: Do you think [see below] does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? . . . twitter.com/pollreport/sta…

— PollingReport.com (@pollreport) February 15, 2012

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Yet all the polls have the gap at 2%

The chart from Betfair shows the movement in betting prices, expressed as a percentage, ahead of May’s race for the London Mayoralty. As can be seen it is about 62-38 for Boris.

We had another YouGov poll this week putting the Tory ahead by 51-49 – a reversal of the last poll.

The YouGov poll had London Westminster voting intention of LAB 47: CON 35: LD 9 which puts the mayoral voting intention into context.

Labour is doing far better amongst London voters for the next general election than Ken is doing for the mayoralty – a product of a significant number of Labour Westminster backers saying they’ll vote Johnson for City Hall.

My only bet on this election was on at 14/1 against Ken taken out nearly two years ago when he had yet to get the nomination. I cannot see value either way in the current price.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Will this negative attack impede the new front-runner?

With just thirteen days to go before the key primaries in Michigan and Arizona one of the bodies supporting Mitt Romney has launched the first of its TV ads against Rick Santorum. This will be shown hundreds of times in the two states as well in Ohio

My impression is that it’s nothing like as powerful as the ads used to destroy Newt Gingrich in Florida – in fact it’s rather lame.

The key to going negative against an opponent is to find something that chimes with a known or obvious weak spot which was why the attacks on Gingrich were so effective.

A problem for the Romney campaign is that they haven’t, I believe, identified weaknesses in Santorum that will resonate with the target audience.

Their big challenge is that Santorum’s “favourability” ratings are so much higher than Romney’s. Quite simply he’s liked in a way that the ex-governor of Massachusetts isn’t and there’s a danger that this approach could re-bound.

I’m due to win a substantial five figure sum if Santorum gets the nomination. This ad has not persuaded me to change my betting.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Two weeks on from tonight…

The epic battle that is going on for the Republican nomination for the White House is totally engrossing so much so that I find that my interest in UK politics is much lower than it usually is.

This is partly because it’s a massive political betting event and I have shed loads of cash at risk, partly because I’ve been engaged by the Telegraph to write regular posts and also, of course, because I find the politics so fascinating.

My tablet (what wonderful gadgets they are) is beside me 24/7 and is being checked consistently to see if there is more news.

This is all building up to a massive election in Michigan two weeks on from tonight. If Mitt Romney has a clear victory in his birth state then the Santorum threat will be much reduced and he’ll have a clearer pathway to the nomination. If not then this could go on right until the party convention in Tampa at the end of August.

Have a good night in the cafe.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Is another messy caucus outcome in the offing?

On Saturday night the Maine Republican party announced that Mitt Romney had won the caucuses in the state by a margin of 194 votes over Ron Paul.

Extraordinarily the result was announced even though voting in one part of the state, Washington county, had to be be postponed because the weather forecasts were suggesting heavy snow. The deferred election takes place this Saturday.

Now the enthusiastic band of Ron Paul supporters are working hard to try to make up the back-log. If they do it could, like in Iowa, put State party officials in a tricky position.

The Paul backers have got a big task on their hands but there’s no doubt they are motivated. The New York Times election analyst, Nate Silver, has observed that in 2008 just 113 people voted in the county and only eight of them for Ron Paul.

Silver noted that there are 6,907 registered Republicans in the County, and another 8,247 unaffiliated registered voters so that Team Paul have a fair bit to go at. The question is whether they can achieve it.

If the 194 vote gap is overhauled then it could take some of the gloss off Mitt’s Saturday victory – the only one he’s had this month.

Betfair settled the Maine market on the basis of the first announcement. I had £40 at stake but unlike Iowa I’m not going to quibble.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Could he help the party to “re-connect”?

There’s an interesting piece by Tim Shipman in the Mail that Tony Blair is taking an interest in domestic policies again.

Blair, it will be recalled, is one of only three leaders in the party’s entire history to have led LAB to overall majorities in general elections

The report says that many of the party’s new intake of MPs want to hear from the man who stormed to landslide victories in 1997 and 2001 and then led post-Iraq Labour to a comfortable majority in in 2005. It’s being said that five years is too long for him to have remained in the wilderness.

Shipman concludes:“I am told Mr Blair has begun attending a few more private events with MPs he likes and whose views he shares. It all seems part of a reintroduction to the Labour Party, which could see him play a role come the next election.

Blairites remain bitter at the way their hero was driven out of the party. One frontbencher told me recently, when asked if Ed Miliband would survive: ‘We only sack leaders who have won three elections.”

That last phrase is particularly biting. Blair was forced in September 2006 by the Brown gang to say he’d stand aside. He went the following June.

I wrote at the time that it was madness for the party to push out their thrice election winner and replace him by Brown. Maybe he could come back in some form. I think he’d give PM Dave a run for his money.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

And in London Boris is back on top

It’s been a very big day of polling both in the US and in London.

A few weeks ago two pollsters, ComRes and YouGov, both had Ken winning back City Hall by 51-49. Now there’s a new YouGov which has the same figures but the other way round. Boris is winning 51-49. This is all margin of error stuff and the big conclusion is that the race looks very tight.

There’s been a glut of both state and national polls and the message is that the Santorum surge is continuing and is touching states where nobody was giving him any chance whatsoever.

The California primary Survey USA has it Romney 33; Santorum 31; Gingrich 17; Paul 9. The highest figure before this that Santorum has reached in the state was just 4%.

National poll of Republicans Gallup tonight had Romney 32; Santorum 30; Gingrich 16; Paul 8. This is based on a five day rolling average and my calculation is that the latest day has Santorum at 40+

Michigan primary For the this key state where Romney’s father was governor PPP has Romney 24; Santorum 39; Gingrich 11; Paul 12.

Also in Michigan ARG also has Santorum ahead with Romney 27; Santorum 33; Gingrich 21; Paul 12.

Georgia primary In Newt’s home state the ex-speaker seems to be picking up the anti-Romney vote. Mason-Dixon has Romney 29; Santorum 12; Gingrich 43; Paul 6.

All this, of course, could change rapidly once the Romney negative machine gets into action but as I argued on my Telegraph blog today Santorum is going to be a lot harder to destroy than Gingrich.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

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What a price to remain in the Euro

The big story in Europe overnight has been the Greek parliament’s decision to adopt an austerity package and the riots that were taking place while discussion continued.

The plan means that another 150,000 public sector workers will lose their jobs and the country’s minimum wage is being cut by a huge 22%.

On Wednesday Eurozone finance ministers todecide whether the Geeek moves are enough to allow a 130bn euro bailout package to go forward.

If so then Greece would remain in the Euro but at what a price.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Have a great evening.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

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Can we read anything into the betting?

BETTING HAS been suspended on the ‘Next MP to leave Cabinet’ market amid a sustained gamble on Andrew Lansley according to Ladbrokes.

The firm says is has had to temporarily suspend bets on him to leave following an overnight punt despite the PM coming out in support of his Health Minister.

Lansley’s latest odds of being the next MP to leave were 5/6 before suspension with embattled Welsh Secretary of State Cheryl Gillan 4/1 as the furore surrounding HS2 slowly dies down.

Alex Donohue of Ladbrokes said: “Lansley’s time appears to be running out. Punters are convinced the cabinet will be reformed before the NHS.”

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Is the system being gamed to by-pass the voters?

After his three disastrous defeats on Tuesday Mitt Romney ended up on top, by just 194 votes, in the Maine caucuses overnight just ahead of Ron Paul.

The state neighbours Massachusetts so Mitt was expected to do well but it was always clear that Ron Paul was a serious threat.

The total number of voters in the entire state was just 5,594 and the split was Mitt 39%, Paul 36%, Santorum 18% with Gingrich on just 6%. The final two had hardly done a thing there throughout the campaign and the Santorum camp must have been delighted at their lead over Newt.

A bigger question in terms of the overall race, and not just Maine, is the way the Ron Paul campaign is gaming the system to soak up the lion’s share of the delegates in caucuses irrespective of the fact that their man has not won a single state.

If you thought like I did that delegates from each were split in accordance with votes cast for the contenders then you are wrong. There are two sets of votes at caucus meetings – one to choose between the candidates and the other to choose the delegates.

The Ron Paul campaign is putting all its efforts into the latter and claims that it is building up a powerful position.

Just check out the above report by MSNBC which is the first serious examination of what they are doing. If the Ron Paul campaign’s claims are correct then it throws into question all the delegate projections that we’ve seen.

I assume that Paul wants to be the king-maker in Tampa and his campaign is skilfully working the process to achieve that end.

Isn’t democracy a wonderful thing.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Will this be Ron Paul’s night in Maine?

The state nominating contests are coming thick and fast at the moment and tonight we should get the result of a Maine caucuses. These have been going on for a week so began before Mitt Romney suffered his three-pronged blow on Tuesday night.

The big factor is that turnout is incredibly low which provides a great opportunity for Ron Paul’s hyper-active support base. There’s a good piece here by Mark Blumenthal and another by Nate Silver.

I’ve got a very little bet on Paul at about 2/1.

Some good news for Romney from the big CPAC conference in Washington. In a straw poll of attendees he got 38%, Santorum 31% and Newt 15% at CPAC

Have a good evening.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

But will the boost from Tuesday’s election last?

There’s a new national poll of Republican primary voters just out and, as can be seen from above, has Rick Santorum taking a huge 15% lead over the former front-runner, Mitt Romney.

This is the first full national poll to be reported since Tuesday three nominating contests in Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota which were all won by the ex-senator from Pennsylvania.

When asked “If the Republican candidates for President were just Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, who would you vote for?” those sampled split 56% to 32% to Santorum.

The latest numbers are from Public Policy Polling which was the only firm to cover the Tuesday contests and to predict on the night before that Santorum was going to do very well.

In taking the lead Santorum becomes the eleventh polling front-runner in the race to win the GOP nomination. All the others either didn’t stand or have fallen back sharply.

Where Santorum is scoring particularly well is on “favourability” – something that US pollsters ask a lot. The question is “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Santorum?” He’s at 64-22. Mitt’s at 44-43 while Newt rates 42-44.

Whether Santo numbers will survive the huge negative offensive likely to be launched by Romney is an open question.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH