A couple of people have raised with time the question of when they can expect to pick up their winnings on Mitt Romney for the Republican party nomination.

The battle is just about all over with Mitt expected to cross the finishing line with the 1144 delegates in the next two to three weeks.

Unfortunately for punters the bookies are likely to do what they have done in the past and wait until the party convention has met. With the GOP that won’t happen until the end of August.

Betfair’s rules are quite explicit – “This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Republican Party nominee as a result of the 2012 Republican National Convention.”

So if you are waiting to pick up winnings then you are going to have to be patient.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Would Phillip Hammond be best placed to become leader&PM?

These have been a bloody few weeks for David Cameron. One problem seems to have piled on another and his personal poll ratings and those of his party have plummeted.

What if the narrative continues and there seem few signs of improvement?

What if Labour’s double digit poll leads continue and the idea takes hold that the dream of a Tory majority simply isn’t going to happen and that the most likely outcome is a return of Labour?

What if we reach a point where the Conservatives do what they’ve done in the past and ditch a leader perceived to be a loser?

It is a sign of the times that Ladbrokes is offering what to me is a skinny 7/1 that Dave will be out before the year end.

If Dave did have to step down before the general election then my choice for next Tory leader and PM would be the defence secretary, Phillip Hammond. Unlike most of those close to the PM Hammond is in his mid-50s, went to a state school, and had a successful career outside politics before becoming an MP.

It would be hard for Nadine Dorries to pin the label “posh” on him.

Of the Tory front bench team he is one of the few that gives an air of confidence and sure-footedness. In the past few days he’s had a very good week on defence issues and is an effective communicator.

Of the alternatives Boris is not an MP and went to Eton; Osborne, also public school and the Bullington club, has been too associated with Cameron and David Davis is not a minister.

I was going to end suggesting that you have a Hammond bet. Ladbrokes, amazingly now make him the 10/1 third favourite for the leadership. As I write there’s nothing available on Betfair though PaddyPower have a tempting 33/1 against him being next PM. If, unlike me, you can make a decent size bet with the Irish bookie then it’s worth a punt.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

What a day for political news

This has been one of those days. After last night’s YouGov poll with its record lead we then had the charges in the News International case only to be followed an hour or so later by one of the four main telephone polls – Ipsos-MORI.

Then there was the election to the Conservatives 1922 committee in which the old guard appears to have seen off the young usurpers. On top of that EdM has been making changes to his shadow line-up.

Have a good night’s conversation.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Both the PM and Nick Clegg see 8 points drops

Another poll, MORI, has EdM beating DC in leader ratings.Ed’s net rating is -16/Dave’s is -28/Clegg’s is -39 bit.ly/JXzzkh

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Clegg also sees a big drop in his MORI ratings down from -31 in April to -39 now.bit.ly/JXzzkh

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Cameron’s -28% MORI rating is worse than Gordon Brown’s was in any survey from the pollster in the 5 months before the 2010 election.

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

MORI has CON lead on economy down to just 1%. They are on 31% LAB 30%bit.ly/JXzzkh

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

The latest Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Evening Standard is out and has more bad polling news for the coalition parties and their leaders.

The voting intention numbers are CON 33 (-2):LAB43 (+5): LD 9 (-3), But it’s the MORI leader ratings which, arguably, are the most significant.

Dave’s -28% rating is worse than anything that Brown scored with MORI in the period up to the 2010 general election. These were:-

JAN 2012 -26%
FEB 2010 -21%
MAR 2010 -26%
APR 2010 -24%

Clegg (-8) and the Lib Dems (-3) come out of this poll appallingly as well.

The only consolation for them is that EdM’s personal numbers have only moved a little even though Labour voting intention share has risen by 5%.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Important legal notice

We are now entering a different phase legally and and there should be no speculation, smears or innuendos regarding these developments. Any posts on this subject matter needs to come from a reputable source, with a link.

Any poster disregarding this will have their post removed and will be banned from posting.

CHARGE 1 – CONSPIRACY TO PERVERT THE COURSE OF JUSTICE

Rebekah Brooks between 6th July and 19th July 2011 conspired with Charles Brooks, Cheryl Carter, Mark Hanna, Paul Edwards, Daryl Jorsling and persons unknown to conceal material from officers of the Metropolitan Police Service.

CHARGE 2 – CONSPIRACY TO PERVERT THE COURSE OF JUSTICE

Rebekah Brooks and Cheryl Carter between 6th July and 9th July 2011 conspired together permanently to remove seven boxes of material from the archive of News International.

CHARGE 3 – CONSPIRACY TO PERVERT THE COURSE OF JUSTICE

Rebekah Brooks, Charles Brooks, Mark Hanna, Paul Edwards and Daryl Jorsling conspired together and with persons unknown, between 15th July and 19th July 2011, to conceal documents, computers and other electronic equipment from officers of the Metropolitan Police Service.

See this link here

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Update – Labour lead on 14: Latest YouGov/The Sun results 14th May CON 31%, LAB 45%, LD 7%, (UKIP 8%); APP -42 y-g.co/JPOlcP

— YouGov (@YouGov) May 14, 2012

The YouGov LAB 45% CON 31% split is slightly better for Labour than in Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide when the voting wasLAB 44.4% CON 31.4%

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 15, 2012

Tonight’s YouGov lead for Labour of 14% is the highestrecorded by the firm since it started polling 10years sgo

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

YouGov have Labour taking the lead for the first time on “handling the economy”

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

LAB has still some way to go before it gets to what the Tories were polling in 2008. On May 8 that year YouGov had 49/23/17 – a 26% lead

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

Join the web’s best political conversation

Welcome once again to our overnight thread in the PB NightHawks cafe.

According to the site stats there are many more people who lurk and follow the threads compared with those who actually post. Please don’t be inhibited particularly here in the “cafe” and post tonight.

Have a good evening.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Peter Kellner says “I still think a Conservative victory is the likeliest outcome in 2015…” bit.ly/JuGAv2

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 14, 2012

Interesting article on the latest ratings changes for Ed Miliband and David Cameron on the YouGov site by Peter Kellner. Looking back he notes:-

“…In the months leading up to the 1970 election, Wilson’s ratings improved. By election day he was much better liked than Heath. Yet Heath won: Wilson’s mid-term travails had been too profound, and his late surge too fragile, to give him the victory he expected.

History seldom repeats itself in a tidy manner; so I am not yet predicting that David Cameron will end up like a Tory Harold Wilson, or Ed Miliband a Labour Edward Heath. I still think a Conservative victory is the likeliest outcome in 2015.

However, if the post-Budget shifts in sentiment do persist through the summer, that judgement may change..”

Clearly there are three years to go and anything can happen. Cameron does need to recover from his April and now May slump or else it will have a look of permanence about it.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Will they capitalise most on the Lib Dem collapse?

While UKIP continues to get most attention in the “others” category the organisation in that segment that has been making real electoral progress is Caroline Lucas’s Green Party.

Unlike the disorganised purples who failed even to get the UKIP party name onto the ballot papers in London the Greens had a very good May 3rd. Their net councillor total went up by 11 and of course, their candidate in the London mayoral race, Jenny Jones, came in third adding even more to the Lib Dems’ misery.

Overnight comes news that the party first and only MP, Caroline Lucas, is standing aside as leader so that the party leadership can be used as a vehicle to boost the profile of other potential Green MPs.

This is part of a big strategy to exploit the opportunity created by the Lib Dem collapse to become the alternative force to Labour and the Tories.

If they are successful it could impact on Labour’s hopes of attracting and retaining disgruntled Lib Dems.

The Greens have a strong local base in several areas on which they can build. Caroline’s victory at the General Election followed years of on the ground activity in Brighton and a council base.

Although they have two MEPs all the media focus has been on Caroline. If they can build her successor as leader into a big figure then the chances of further Westminster gains must be strong.

All this contrasts with the electoral novices at UKIP who have been unable to capitalise on their poll ratings.

In 2010 I did very nicely out of Lucas’s victory at Brighton Pavilion winning bets both on the seat and whether the party would secure its first MP. Maybe 2015 will see the total doubled or even trebled?

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Should the party ignore the activist base?

The subject of gay marriage has come to the fore in both the US and in the UK, In the former last week electors in North Carolina voted to amend the state constitution to ban it. A day later Barack Obama said that he was in favour.

Here in the UK it’s been a issue particularly within the Tory party and this morning Philip Hammond was on the Marr show expressing his reservations.

But have the blues got this right?

Is it wise to oppose something that, according to today’s YouGov poll, is backed by 51% of voters with 35% against?

The chart above shows Tory voters opposed by 47% to 35%. Supporters of their coalition partners, the LDs take a very different view with 66% supporting and just 20% opposing. Labour are split 62% support to 28% oppose.

What we don’t know is whether this is an issue that impacts on voting. The anti-gay stance of the blues in 2000 led to one prominent Tory MP, Shaun Woodward, defecting to Labour thus creating a vacancy in the solid Tory seat of Witney. He was replaced by one David Cameron.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Ed Miliband overtakes Cameron in YouGov’s leader ratings. He’s on 32% WELL/55% BADLY to Cameron’s 32%/61%. So Ed’s net is -23% to Dave’s -29

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012

LATEST YouGov voting – 31/43/10 with UKIP on 8. Labour maintaining a solid double digit lead.. The LDs up from their low of 7% on Thu to 10

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012

EdM’s net YouGov leader ratings lead of 6% over Dave his best ever position

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012

Ed getting big YouGov boost from LAB voters. 67% say he’s doing well compared with 57% last week &ratings <50% earlier in year

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 12, 2012

Just 26% tell YouGov that Cameron is a “strong leader” against 40% saying weak. In March it was 37% strong to 30% weak,

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 13, 2012

Are LAB voters now getting behind their leader?

The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is now out and has good news for the LAB leader Ed Miliband.

His net position of minus 23% is six points better than Dave’s and puts him in his best ever position in relation to the prime minister.

Key to the big change in the number is a significant increase in the number of LAB voters ready to say that their leader is “doing well”.

Earlier in the year this dropped below the 50% mark. A week ago it was on 57%. This is now 67% representing a big turnaround.

If this is maintained and seen in other polling it will surely, banish the suggestions that Ed might be pressured to step down before the general election.

The voting intention numbers continue the pattern we have seen with, yet again, another solid double digit lead for Labour.

The 6/4 from Ladbrokes that Ed Will be PM before 2020 starts to look like a good bet.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Will the Euro still exist at the end of 2015?

William Hill have reopened their market on which will be the first country to quit the Eurozone – and although Greece remain hot favourites at 1/4, Spain have been slashed from 12/1 to 7/1 third favourite.

‘We suspended the market earlier in the week when punters only wanted to back Greece but with the financial crisis escalating in Spain and the possibility of another Greek election we have decided to re-open the market’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

The latest odds suggest that punters believe that Greece will be the first country to leave the Euro, with William Hill offering 1/4 that they are whilst Italy are 5/1. Despite Francois Hollande’s victory, France are 20/1 outsiders to be the first to go.

In another market the the view of punters suggests that the Euro itself will still be a currency, at least until the end of 2015, said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams.

Euro To Still be A Currency by 31st Dec 2015 Hills are offering 4/6 Still In Place to 11/10 Euro NO Longer A Currency.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Is he set to become the 4th cabinet casualty?

Rebekah Brooks’ testimony to the Leveson enquiry didn’t produce a smoking gun but will not have been at all comfortable listening for Jeremy Hunt. In particular, the e-mail from Hunt’s advisor looks at best like a private office out of control and gives the suggestion of indirect but improper ministerial contact with News International.

However, it is just suggestion rather than established fact and as such we’re into the good old game of a media and opposition minister-hunt. The questions, as always, are these: how bad are the allegations, how well can they be made to stick, and does the story have legs?

Of themselves, the allegations are not yet a resignation matter.

They would only become so if they could be firmed up by directly linking the contact between his advisors and News International to Hunt himself, both because of the substance that would bring and because it would throw his denial of involvement into the realms of cover-up.

That lack of evidence also undermines any attempts to make the current allegations stick. While the episode doesn’t look or sound good, Hunt is not the central character in the drama and so there again, he isn’t in the direct firing line. Minister-hunts are successful when the allegations against the minister in question can be readily summed up in a few words. From what we know at the moment, this can’t.

Finally, does the story have legs? That’s hard to say as it depends what else might come out. Leveson will of course continue but as the enquiry shifts focus, so the pressure goes from Hunt. For Hunt to remain in the spotlight, more has to come out about these contacts. This weekend’s papers are crucial in that respect. By Monday, the momentum will have gone from the story if today’s hearing can’t be followed up with something new.

The value when ministers come under pressure to quit is to back them to go as the story builds then lay off, one way or another. The odds usually overshoot significantly and plenty of odds-on candidates for departure stay in post; prime ministers aren’t keen on losing their colleagues, either to the demands of the opposition or because of a perceived media storm. For one thing, it sets a precedent they can do little to control.

Chances are then that Hunt will survive, at least for now. Whether he lasts beyond the cabinet reshuffle may be an entirely different thing.

David Herdson

Holiday arrangements starting a week on Monday

I’ve going to be away Andalucia for two and half weeks and won’t be taking my lap-top though I will still have my tablet and phone.

Unlike previous holidays there will be no stand-in editor. We have found that it is just too big a task for someone who also has to work.

The site will still operate driven mostly by continuation threads and things that have been set up in advance.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Recent Threads

We now make it 5/6 that David Cameron says ‘lol’ at least once during PMQs this year #LOLgate #camerontexts

— Ladbrokes (@LadbrokesNews) May 11, 2012

You wait till the Prime Minister finds out what MILF means….

— Philip Cowley (@philipjcowley) May 11, 2012

The Moggster’s verdict re LOL. Jacob Rees-Mogg: “I would have thought he’d sign off yours sincerely, but never mind.” bit.ly/JERI9o

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) May 11, 2012

#leveson Not too charmed by RB’s feisty, winning ways, we hope,@moreysue (et al), but we can see why Rupe took such a shine to her, yes?

— MichaelWhite (@MichaelWhite) May 11, 2012

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the appearance by Rebekah Brooks before Leveson but I’m not sure that, so far, we have learned that much beyond that Dave, apparently, thought that LOL on a text means “lots of love”.

Those who were saying that this week’s appearances were going to be defining moments are going to be disappointed. Coulson coped well yesterday and Brooks has today. It’s interesting but not really significant so far.

Where this takes us is hard to say. The most significant development this week has been Leveson’s refusal to get involved in the Jeremy Hunt business.

The delaying tactic won’t work. Dave is going to have to decide himself how to take this forward.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Has it all been a terrible mistake?

Today’s my 66th birthday and, as no doubt it will be hard to avoid today, the second anniversary of that Tuesday in May 2010 when Gordon Brown, Sarah and his two children left Number 10 for the last time as PM.

It is also the second anniversary of Dave as prime minister and, of course, the creation of what all seemed so positive then, the coalition.

Looking back to those heady days I wonder just how much all parties were spooked by Gordon and the worry that even though he had just lost the election he might try to remain at Number 10?

Was it that reason why Cameron made the offer to talks to the Lib Dems rather than just waiting so he could seek to run a Tory minority government?

It would have been better, it is arguable, for both the Tories and LDs if the arrangement with the yellows had just been for supply and confidence?

Cameron would have then gone to the country in the following 12 months in the hope of winning a majority.

We are where we are. I am coming to the view that the coalition was a mistake but Nick Clegg had little alternative when the offer was put on the table. If it had been rebuffed then the party would have been seen by the world as not being interested in power.

So year two is over – will it get to year five? Possibly.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Is Romney’s price almost bound to tighten?

There’s a new Gallup poll out that gives the presumptive Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, a nine point lead on the economy. The latest daily tracker poll from the firm has Romney on 47% to Obama’s 44%.

In many key state races the margins are very tight yet, overall, punters on Betfair continue to put their money on the incumbent.

The chart above shows the trend and there’s been almost no real movement.

My biggest current political bet, amounting to four figures, is on Romney simply I believe that his price will tighten and there will be the chance to close the position down at a profit.

Interestingly Betfair is lagging behind the Dublin-based Intrade market which has many US customers. It makes Obama a 59% shot against Betfair’s 64%.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Recent Threads

Is the Labour leader now looking like a winner?

Earlier in the week the Speccie’s Fraser Nelson yesterday summed up neatly the Tory view of the next general election:-

“Much of the Cameroon’s re-election hopes are pinned on the idea that their boss will trounce the geeky Ed Miliband. Nowadays, the argument goes, these ex-special advisers who have no charisma and alarming leftist policies just don’t win modern elections.”

That view might have had some merit before George Osborne’s budget in March but I’m far less convinced that’s it’s applicable today.

For the chancellor’s introduction of the lower tax rate for the very rich has framed everything and has taken away the key coalition rhetoric that what’s being done on the economy is because of the “mess left by the last lot.”

It’s hard to conclude other than that George’s gamble has been a massive political mistake which could cost his party dear.

Last Thursday elections simply underlined the polling – the political pendulum has swung back to Labour and we are now less than three years away from the election.

The Tory hopes before Thursday was that Labour would fail to win 700 council seats while Boris Johnson in London and the SNP in Glasgow would knock the gloss off Labour’s performance. Well Miliband’s party chalked up more than 800 gains; the mayoralty election was a whole lot closer than the pundits were predicting and Alex Salmond’s talk of taking Glasgow turned out to be ill-judged hubris.

Ed Miliband, for the first time in his leadership, is starting to look like a winner and that trumps his geeky looks every time.

The chances for Ed becoming the next PM must be increasing all the time. Labour will rightly take heart from the events in France and judging from reports of last night 1922 committee Cameron is facing problems with his own party.

Ladbrokes are offering 6/4 that Ed Miliband will become PM before 2020. That looks a good bet.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

The word is that the long awaited ministerial re-shuffle will be taking place within the next few days. This will have implications for those punters who’ve bet on the next cabinet exit markets.

Who is on the way out? The list in the “poll” above is based on the latest next exit prices from Ladbrokes so the ones deemed mostly likely are at the top.

Cameron and Clegg have not been included – it’s assumed that both will still be there.

Let’s see how good the PB community at predicting who is on the way out.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

This is how Marf describes her drawing:-

In the cartoon, Cameron’s been struggling to rewrite the Queen’s Speech all night …. With Europe, Greece and France swinging to left and hovering in a sinister way, and Boris and Nick Clegg (the cat wearing the yellow tie) staring, taunting. Honestly it couldn’t be the easiest time for Cameron. I have him dressed as an eighteenth-century gentleman because his Bullingdon dress still evokes so much about his character and outlook – hard to forget that wonderful photo. So I kept the eighteenth-century clothes in the original Goya, because it practically matched the Bullingdon tailored suits the young men are wearing – and their vanity and privilege. Anyway, I tried to sum up the Tory crisis as best I could, but with sympathy …. It’s a difficult time and we all seem to be clashing and not agreeing … It’s led to such a feeling of paralysis in this country. The economy’s just part of the story, isn’t it? I left Osborne out because he’s a friend to Cameron, an ally, and this is about demons.

Is 6/4 a good value bet?

Ladbrokes has a bet at 6/4 that an MP will defect to UKIP before the general election. It looks like a reasonable punt.

The problem for potential MP defectors is that UKIP has never even come within a whisker of winning a Westminster seat and the chances of holding on at a general election must be low.

So a potential defector would have to factor in losing both their job and parliamentary salary.

As we saw last Thursday UKIP, did well in vote terms in the local elections showing a significant increase on four years ago. In the seats where they were standing the party averaged 14% and, in the process, took a lot of votes from the Tories but did not win, overall, any more seats.

UKIP’s election machine is not well suited to the first past the post process used for Westminster and for English local elections. The party does, however, do extremely well from the party list system used for elections to the EU parliament.

Last time the purples chalked up more votes than Labour to finish in second place. Next time these are up, in June 2014, it is conceivable that UKIP could finish up with most votes.

Whatever it looks as though there will be more UKIP MEPs from 2014 which, I’d argue, makes the possibility of MP defections that much greater.

An MP could jump ship now to UKIP in the knowledge that he/she would have a good chance of winning a place at the EU parliament and be able to continue a political career.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Welcome to the best overnight political conversation on the net.

With the elections we’ve not been here for a week or so – but NightHawks makes a return tonight,

Have a good evening.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Recent Threads

The boundary changes could be postponed in exchange for the LDs holding back on Lord reform. Winner=Ed Miliband bit.ly/IS9SWc

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012

A delay Lords reform/boundary changes pact means that LAB can win overall majority with just 3% lead. CON needs 11% lead.

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012

A delay Lords reform/boundary changes pact means that Nadine’s seat is safe for next time.

— Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012

See Gary Gibbon’s post here.

I’m not convinced that the Tories will agree to this. The prize from the boundary changes is so big for them and a postponement just makes it easier for Ed Miliband to win.

Is it the polling that binds them together?

This afternoon’s political story is the joint event in Essex by Dave and Nick plan to “re-launch” the coalition. The event comes just three days before the second anniversary of the creation of the pact.

The fact that both feel the need to “re-launch” is a sign surely that things are not going well. This unlikely marriage is going through a stormy patch.

Both parties got totally smashed in Thursday local elections and both are down in the polls. The yellows have been in the doldrums for so long that it is hardly a story. The decline for Tories is more recent which is perhaps why there appears to be more panic.

The major problem is that the government is starting to look incompetent and the voters are sensing this. The grass roots of both parties may blame the other but it’s the overall situation that’s the problem.

The blues have been shaken by UKIP’s progress though it is important to stress that the anti-EU party failed to increase its overall number of councilors. The pressure, though, is for the Tories to move to the right.

Cameron’s in coalition simply because the Tories failed to win a decisive victory two years ago. Clegg’s there because he thought it the right thing to do to deal with the crisis at the time.

There are two certainties in all of this. In spite of the calls from some Tory MPs the coalition will continue simply because both parties could be hurt badly if there was an early general election

Secondly there will more such “re-launch” events before May 2015.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Has he now the numbers to threaten Mitt?

Three months I put the maximum that Ladbrokes would allow me on Rand Paul, son of Ron, to be the Republican V-P nominee. The odds then were a tasty 50/1. Overnight I bet again on Rand with Betfair at a nice 44/1.

I decided to risk more money because of some remarkable moves in the Republican nomination race by the enthusiastic and hugely well organised band of Ron Paul supporters

For every weekend it seems we learn of new triumphs by the Ron Paul campaign at county and state party conventions getting their people elected as delegates to the national convention in Tampa in August.

This weekend using the arcane delegate selection rules they had one of their most successful hauls so far in Nevada and Maine

What’s interesting is that the composition of a number of state delegations now bears little resemblance to how those states voted. These are not isolated and the same has happened in states across the US.

The Ron Paul campaign strategy is aimed at picking up as many delegates as possible, particularly in the caucus states, and he looks set to end up in August with substantial voting power. The big question is what Paul is going to with it?

Nobody is suggesting that Romney won’t be the nominee but any idea that Tampa will be a clear take-off pad for his battle with Obama could be undermined by the presence of so many Paul delegates with their own agenda. Mitt has got to cut the deal

My reading is that Paul himself is too old to press for something like the V-P slot or a big position for himself. But what about his son Rand – a senator from Kentucky? Whatever something is afoot.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

<

The LDs are MORE likely to vote for the boundary changes

One massive issue festering in the background at Westminster is the change to the boundaries which according to the projections from YouGov’s Anthony Wells at UKPR bring in a revised set of notional outcomes, see table above, linked to the GB vote share secured by the main two parties.

The CON objective in pushing for equal size seats, fewer MPs overall and a speeded up boundary review process was to try to redress some of what the party saw as the bias against it in the electoral system.

In 2005 Tony Blair won a comfortable LAB majority with 36.2% of the GB vote and a lead over CON of 3%. In 2010 Cameron’s party secured 37% of the vote with a lead over LAB of 6.3% and were 19 seats short of an overall majority.

The big number for CON from the changes is the reduction from an 11% lead requirement for an overall majority to 7.4%. LAB on the other hand would need a 4.3% margin for a majority rather than 3%.

LAB continue to do better because of the average lower turnouts in its heartlands. The changes can only be implemented by a motion being passed by the house of commons – something that’s likely to happen from October next year onwards.

The question is whether the yellows will vote for them and leading Lib Dem figures have warned that any backs-sliding on Lords reform could lead to the LDs voting against. The coalition agreement talked about the structure not the detailed proposals that come from the boundary commissioners.

I have good news for the blues. If the reds still have general election majority winning poll leads at the time of the vote it will be in the strategic interest of the LDs to make it harder for Labour.

Voting for the changes will achieve that.

Clearly Clegg’s party benefits from another hung parliament.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

The Greek & French elections: The response on the markets

The pound has been moving sharply upwards overnight against the Euro and at one stage touched 1.25 Euros to the pound. It’s now edged down a touch but the big trend can be seen in the chart above.

As someone planning to go to Spain in a fortnight this is really good news for me and other holidaymakers but what of the other consequences? Won’t we hear that it makes out exports that bit more expensive.

The real test will be how the new political leaderships in France and Spain deal with the challenge.

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Leaked exits via Belgium/Switzerland say Hollande 52.5-53

Greece: will ND + PASOK give a majority for the bailout?

Welcome to what’s a bumper night for European elections and a very important one for the continent’s politics.

In France, first polling stations don’t close until 5pm UK time and the last ones at 7pm, but if the exit polls leaked via Belgian and Swiss media are to be believed, then Francois Hollande has won a comfortable victory in the battle for the Elysee, having him at 52.5 to 53%, slightly under Sarkozy’s 2007 score. Early leaked results from the DOM-TOM (overseas departments) also suggest good results for Hollande.

In Greece, it’s my understanding that voting will close at 5pm UK time. The key issue here is whether the traditional “big two” of New Democracy and PASOK, who will undoubtedly take a severe battering today, will nevertheless scrape the 151 seats needed for a majority (winning party gets a 50-seat bonus). With parties on the extremes from the communist KKE to the neo-fascist Golden Dawn expected to do well, the new Greek parliament may well resemble Weimar Germany in terms of its fragmentation.

Elswhere, there is a German state election in Schleswig-Holstein (what will the new governing coalition be and will it be another good result for the Pirates?), with the key state of Nordrhein-Westfalen voting next Sunday, while there are local elections in Italy, the first of the Monti era – how will the PdL, PD and Lega Nord fare? And if that still isn’t enough for you, there are also elections in Serbia and Armenia.

So, if Hollande’s victory is confirmed, what impact will he have on EU policy and Europe’s balance of power, and will Greece be plunged into political chaos or will the status quo (just) survive?

France results map

Greece results map

France 24 News

Double Carpet

DC mainly covers international politics for PB, with occasional forays into the UK and US. He also runs The Election Game.

Could the PM be ousted by his own MPs?

It is almost part of the political calendar – talk of threats to party leaders on the first Sunday after each year’s May local elections. Generally the reports are pinned on unnamed “senior figures” ready to brief but not go on the record with their concerns about their leader.

This morning it’s different. The comments are on the record and the dissident MP, Nadine Dorries, is touring the broadcasting studios telling the world about her concern over Dave and how he could be booted out by his own back-benchers.

On 5Live she said that the MPs in the will not “sleepwalk towards a next general election like Labour MPs did and watch their seats disappear because of bad policy.”

If things did not change dramatically Tory MPs would start filing in their letters of no confidence in Cameron and look for a change of leader. “I happen to know this is already being discussed,” she warned.

On Dave and George she said “I don’t have anything against anyone who is posh, what I do have though is a problem when arrogance is mixed with privilege and you throw bad manners into the mix, I think that is a pretty dangerous combination.”

What makes these attacks more potent is that they have a ring of truth about them. She is just articulating what people in the party are saying in private.

Nadine has a serious beef against the way she is being treated in the boundary changes. Her Bedfordshire seat goes completely if things proceed as they stand at the moment.

That’s one of the problems with the seat changes. The losers are going to be more outspoken – after all they could be out of a job in May 2015.

Nadine is a highly vocal figure and having her as an enemy is going to make Dave’s life a bit more uncomfortable. Will it lead to his downfall – I’m not so sure

@MikeSmithsonOGH

@MikeSmithsonOGH

Is the country not yet ready for a 21st century Selsdon Man?

The battering the government took in this week’s local elections shouldn’t have come as too much of a surprise. The line being defended – those seats last fought in 2008 – was set at the very depths of Labour’s unpopularity in office; the government is taking decisions which are making life harder for many across the country while failing to pin the ultimate blame for them on the inheritance from Labour; and the last two months have been seen any number of PR accidents, policy blunders and ministerial mishaps.

Could there be a deeper reason to the swing to Labour both in the opinion polls and at the ballot box though? Reforming public services is never popular with those who provide them, nor with those who use them to start with, not least because change causes disruption, unfamiliarity and hence a fear of a change for the worse. The NHS bill has been the most obvious example this parliament but it’s not the only one. The same is true of public expenditure: those who lose out see the change far more than those who gain.

If the government is to win public backing for these policies then, it really needs to explain the benefits of them not just in the practical terms of deficit reduction but why they are a force for good. However, perhaps because it’s a coalition government and therefore doesn’t stand on firm ideological foundations, this is one thing it hasn’t done very effectively. Consequently, partly by default, the game is still being played on Labour’s ground whereby spending is by definition a good thing.

The country has been here before.

Forty years before Cameron embarked on leading a government dedicated to rebalancing the economy, rolling out choice in public provision and reducing the client state, Ted Heath launched his own government’s programme of modernisation based on the proto-Thatcherite Selsdon manifesto.

That programme failed politically partly because he lost his nerve midterm, partly because the opposition was so severe, but critically because when the chips were down, the public were not yet ready to accept the measures necessary to tackle the nation’s problems. Only the experience of even more instability and failure in the second half of the 1970s would pave the way for the reforms to be made to stick.

So to today. The equivalent problem is the size of the state, both in what it costs and the extent to which it intrudes, distorts and stifles. However, addressing that situation adversely affects many, whether through tax and benefit changes, employment or any number of other interactions and that, when combined with tactical errors by the government, produces easy campaign pickings for Labour. Only by changing the terms of the debate about the state’s role in society and the economy can the government really win – but it can only do that if it first has its own answer to the question, which given the differing starting points of the two parties is tricky.

The question then is whether, like Heath, the government has started down a path which will lead it to much opposition without the political support needed to successfully counter those opponents and without the philosophical binding force that kept the Thatcher government and parliamentary party together when the going got tough.

David Herdson

After an extraordinarily long wait which must throw into question the use of counting machine at elections, Boris Johnson has been returned for a second term as Mayor of London.

The battle was much tighter than any of the polls had indicated with the final result being:

After the 2nd prefs had been divided it was Boris 51.53% to Ken’s 48.47%

There was much speculation in the hours leading up to the announcement about how the second preferences would split. What we saw was that far fewer valid second preferences were cast compared with the overall number of non-top two votes that were apparently available. This is normal and a reminder that people generally over-estimate their impact.

YouGov which had consistently reported the smallest Boris leads ended up as the top pollster by quite some margin.

Its final first preference split had a Boris lead of 5% against an actual 3.7%. Well done to YouGov and I have sent a message of congratulation.

YouGov’s final two prediction of a Boris gap of 6% compared with the actual 3.06% was less good and supports my argument beforehand that none of the pollsters had an effective means of measuring the second preferences that would actually count in the final split.

The map above shows how London split in the elections for the London assembly. The Tories have nine of the 25 places which was a huge relief to the party. The assembly can block the Mayor’s budget but only with a two-thirds majority. Nine seats give the blues just enough to stop that.

As can be seen in the race for third place Brian Paddick being was forced into fourth position ahead of Benita but, importantly, behind Jenny Jones the Green contender.

For the yellows May 3rd 2012 was a total nightmare and this only added to it. Their only comfort in London was that UKIP failed to make the cut for the list assembly seats by 0.5% – the beneficiary being the Lib Dems.

@MikeSmithsonOGH