Archive for the 'US Politics' Category

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Obama ups the ante over the Supreme Court nomination

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016

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Trump now in clear lead in the betting following another confident debate performance

Friday, January 15th, 2016

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Seven weeks to go before Iowa and Trump remains totally dominant

Monday, December 7th, 2015

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RCP Polling Average GOP Nominee

Seven weeks tomorrow the first state to decide in next year’s White House Race will choose which of the Democratic and Republican Party hopefuls will be their choice as nominees.

Hillary Clinton looks as though she has sewn up the Democratic race and most of the attention is on the Republicans. The chart above shows the national trend and as can be seen the property billionaire turned TV star is now back at his former heights in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

What is more striking is that Trump has big leads in both the Iowa caucuses and the first full primary, New Hampshire.

    It wasn’t meant to be like this. The non-politico contenders were supposed to be out of the race by now, just like has happened in previous elections, and established politicians would be heading the field.

Now established pundits are starting to contemplate the possibility of a Trump victory.

I still find it hard to see Trump doing it but his position gets stronger as each day goes by and none of the other contenders have got near.

My current betting is on Trump, Rubio, and Cruz.

Mike Smithson





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Fiorina now leading the Donald in New Hampshire – where the first full primary takes place

Monday, September 21st, 2015

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Just arrived back home from my holiday in Southern France and am only now catching up with the news – so no piggy puns from me!

While Britain has been focussed on the election of Mr Corbyn, and now the Ashcroft Cameron biography, the 2016 White House race has been seeing some dramatic developments

Last week there was the second full TV debate of the Republican party Primary featuring the former CEO of Hewlett Packard, Carly Fiorina, who only just managed to be allowed to take place in the top debate following a change in the rules by CNN and on polling level participants should have been averaging.

Yet by all accounts she certainly seized the opportunity was the one who was deemed to have done best and particularly in clashes with the then runaway leader in the polls, the property billionaire, Donald Trump.

The latest big development has been survey of Republican voters in New Hampshire – the state which traditionally holds the first full primary. As can be seen Carly is now in the lead besting Trump

At this stage in US elections we can expect many changes before the campaign proper takes takes place but the presence of Trump as GOP contender has created far more public interest at this stage and bigger TV debate audiences than ever before.

If Carly got it, and some bookies now have her at 7/1, we could see an all-female election in November next year – assuming Hillary wins the Democratic party race.

Mike Smithson





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As expected Hillary announces that she’s running for President

Sunday, April 12th, 2015

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Exactly a year to go before the WH2016 primaries start and Senator Elizabeth Warren is moving into the frame

Tuesday, January 13th, 2015

Could she beat Hillary for Democratic party nomination

Last night I had an 8/1 bet on Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, to be the Democratic party nominee in next year’s White House race. She’s now second favourite in the betting and looks like she’d be a serious challenger if she decided to go for it.

Until now the widespread assumption has been that this is going to be a shoo in for Hillary Clinton who is the odds on favourite, just as she was eight years ago before the tough fight with Obama.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has ruled out being a contender but that has not stopped a growing movement to persuade her to put her hat into the ring. It’s reported that 200,000 have now joined an effort called “Run Warren Run” which has started raising money.

Like Hillary Senator Warren is in her 60s and has come to the fore in recent months over the bank bailouts and the need for much tougher regulation of the big financial institutions. She’s lucid and a convincing speaker. She comes over well on TV and looks as though she would do well in the TV debates.

The big question mark is whether she’s interested and how she’ll respond to the growing clamour.

At 8/1 she seems a good bet.

Mike Smithson

Ranked as one of the most influential over 50s on Twitter




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There’s an inexorable feeling that the next election will be just like 1992

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

Will the next US Presidential election could well be Bush v Clinton, again?

The big news in last day was this tweet

Back in February I advised backing him as Republican Party Nominee at 10/1, he is now trading as low as 9/4 right now.

A poll for NBC/WSJ found that

Just 31% of all voters say they could see themselves supporting [Jeb Bush] for president, while 57% say they can’t. He’s more popular among Republicans (55% support, 34% can’t support), which is the second-best GOP score in the poll behind Mitt Romney. But he fares worse among Democrats (9%-79%) and, more importantly, independents (34%-52%). These numbers follow our Nov. 2014 NBC/WSJ poll, which found Bush’s fav/unfav rating at a net-negative 26%-33%.

The same poll however found

A whopping 71% of American voters want the next president to take a different approach than Obama’s; Clinton served as his first-term secretary of state. And by 40% to 38%, voters prefer a Republican to win the White House in 2016 instead of a Democrat. “This is an electorate –by a large margin — looking for change,”

The betting markets would seem to indicate that the 2016 Presidential Election will be Jeb Bush versus Hillary Clinton. I think if it is those two, the sheer emotive ability of their surnames will galvanise their opponents and that probably favours Hillary Clinton, if those Dems who voted for Obama are thinking of not voting.

I’m expecting the Democratic Party Candidate to still win, because of the demographic changes that don’t favour the Republican Party, but the Republican Party’s chances of winning the White House in 2016 are enhanced, because if they have any hope of winning the White House, they need to take Florida and her twenty nine electoral college votes, and having the former two time Governor of Florida as your candidate should help.

The odds on the US Presidential election are available here

TSE



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The woman in this great ad wins the Senator race in Iowa to help the GOP take control of the Senate

Wednesday, November 5th, 2014

A future White House contender?

The big UK political betting news will be the release by Lord Ashcroft later this morning of his latest round of single seat polling. He’s gone for seats with bigger majorities than his earlier polling as well as a look at Scotland.

That’s due out at 11am and I will be covering on Twitter as well as posting here.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble