Archive for the 'US Politics' Category


A former odds-on favourite for the Democratic nomination says the LDs could form the next UK government

Wednesday, September 28th, 2016

Back in late 2003, not too long after the Iraq War, the governor of Vermont, Howard Dean, was causing a stir on the WH2004 betting markets. He had become just about the first politician to tap into the power of the internet and was running a very effective online campaign building up hundreds of thousands of supporters.

By early January 2004 ahead of the Iowa caucuses he looked unstoppable with the money and, apparently, campaign organisation see see him through the primary battle. On Betfair he moved to a 65% chance of winning the nomination.

It all started to fall to pieces at the first hurdle. Against all the predictions he failed in Iowa and his shouting response to the result became an immediate online hit.

This is by way of introduction to his observation on the UK political scene in the Tweet above.

For the record I don’t believe he is right.

Mike Smithson


The PB/Polling Matters TV Show: Looking at The White House Race

Wednesday, June 8th, 2016

On this week’s show the Polling Matters team take a break from Brexit to discuss events across the pond. Keiran and Rob are joined by White House Correspondent and US political analyst Jon-Christopher Bua to discuss Clinton vs Trump, the states Trump must win to get to 270 electoral college votes and who each candidate might pick as their running mate.

You can follow Jon-Christopher at @jcbua

Audio only version is here

Keiran Pedley


Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democratic VP nomination

Wednesday, May 25th, 2016

This afternoon I got a tip from someone in Colorado that the state governor, John Hickenlooper, was in with a good chance of becoming Hillary’s VP choice.

I quickly went into Betfair and got £11 at an average price of 81.59 without knowing a thing about him. I then Tweeted what I’d done and since then the price has moved in sharply.

A little bit of time on Google later indeed confirmed that he was widely being talked about for this role and other factors seemed right.

Clinton’s big problem is that she cannot possibly risk choosing a senator from a state which currently has a Republican governor. The battle for the Senate in November is going to be critical and the her party needs four gains to win control. She simply cannot add to the pressure by choosing one of a number of likely Senator VP picks.

The way it works is that if a Senator was elected VP then a vacancy would occur which would be filled by the choice of the Governor in the relevant state. That rules out some front runners in the Veepstakes.

Hickenlooper, and I just love that name, comes over very well and his being on the ticket could help the Democrats to take the state in the presidential election.

Mike Smithson


Obama ups the ante over the Supreme Court nomination

Tuesday, February 16th, 2016

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Trump now in clear lead in the betting following another confident debate performance

Friday, January 15th, 2016



Seven weeks to go before Iowa and Trump remains totally dominant

Monday, December 7th, 2015

RCP Polling Average GOP Nominee

Seven weeks tomorrow the first state to decide in next year’s White House Race will choose which of the Democratic and Republican Party hopefuls will be their choice as nominees.

Hillary Clinton looks as though she has sewn up the Democratic race and most of the attention is on the Republicans. The chart above shows the national trend and as can be seen the property billionaire turned TV star is now back at his former heights in the Real Clear Politics polling average.

What is more striking is that Trump has big leads in both the Iowa caucuses and the first full primary, New Hampshire.

    It wasn’t meant to be like this. The non-politico contenders were supposed to be out of the race by now, just like has happened in previous elections, and established politicians would be heading the field.

Now established pundits are starting to contemplate the possibility of a Trump victory.

I still find it hard to see Trump doing it but his position gets stronger as each day goes by and none of the other contenders have got near.

My current betting is on Trump, Rubio, and Cruz.

Mike Smithson


Fiorina now leading the Donald in New Hampshire – where the first full primary takes place

Monday, September 21st, 2015


Just arrived back home from my holiday in Southern France and am only now catching up with the news – so no piggy puns from me!

While Britain has been focussed on the election of Mr Corbyn, and now the Ashcroft Cameron biography, the 2016 White House race has been seeing some dramatic developments

Last week there was the second full TV debate of the Republican party Primary featuring the former CEO of Hewlett Packard, Carly Fiorina, who only just managed to be allowed to take place in the top debate following a change in the rules by CNN and on polling level participants should have been averaging.

Yet by all accounts she certainly seized the opportunity was the one who was deemed to have done best and particularly in clashes with the then runaway leader in the polls, the property billionaire, Donald Trump.

The latest big development has been survey of Republican voters in New Hampshire – the state which traditionally holds the first full primary. As can be seen Carly is now in the lead besting Trump

At this stage in US elections we can expect many changes before the campaign proper takes takes place but the presence of Trump as GOP contender has created far more public interest at this stage and bigger TV debate audiences than ever before.

If Carly got it, and some bookies now have her at 7/1, we could see an all-female election in November next year – assuming Hillary wins the Democratic party race.

Mike Smithson


As expected Hillary announces that she’s running for President

Sunday, April 12th, 2015

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