Archive for the 'UKIP' Category

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There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

Monday, July 28th, 2014

And a lot of 2010 non-voters seem to back Farage’s party

The above chart is based on the aggregate data from Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling which had a total sample of 14,004.

The first factor to stand out is that much more of UKIP’s current support in these key battlegrounds continues to come from ex-Tories than from ex-LAB voters. This means, of course, that the blues will benefit most should UKIP support fade.

Secondly, given UKIP only got 3.1% nationally in 2010, a very high proportion of current UKIP voters did not vote at the last election.

All this unerpins the claims by LAB in the Telegraph this morning that “Ukip voters will make Ed Miliband Prime Minister”. The report quotes a LAB figure:-

“The Tories lose a lot more than we do from a decent Ukip performance,” said a senior Labour campaign source. “The whole election could hang on how many of their current voters stick with them next May.”

I think that’s right and this will impact on Labour’s approach in the coming months. Ed Miliband’s team will be increasingly resistant to pressure from some in the party to make policy moves to attract UKIP votes.

That means, I’d suggest, no Labour promise on an EU in/out referendum.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Local By-Election Results: July 24th 2014

Friday, July 25th, 2014

Clifton on Blackpool (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 501 (41%), UKIP 362 (30%), Conservatives 283 (23%), Liberal Democrats 33 (3%), Greens 25 (2%), TUSC 10 (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 139 (11%)
Turnout: 23%

(Grateful thanks to Blackpool Council for their publication of the result and vote shares)

Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun on Doncaster (Lab Defence)
Result: UKIP 1,203 (41%), Labour 1,109 (38% unchanged), Conservatives 479 (16% +2%), Greens 160 (5%)
UKIP GAIN from Labour with a majority of 94 (3%) on a swing of 20.5% from Labour to UKIP since 2012
Turnout: 28%

Staplehurst on Maidstone (Con Defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 609 (36% +24%), Conservatives 603 (36% -21%), UKIP 311 (19%), Labour 117 (7% -8%), Greens 41 (2% -6%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 6 (0%) on a swing of 22.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Longhougton on Northumberland (Ind Defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 742 (50%), Conservatives 352 (24% +9%), Independents 206 (14%), UKIP 146 (10% +2%), Labour 48 (3%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent with a majority of 390 (26%) on a swing of 20.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Southcote on Reading (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 1,019 (59% +3), Conservative 340 (20% -11%), UKIP 226 (13%), Greens 69 (4% -2%), Liberal Democrats 49 (3% -4%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 679 (39%) on a swing of 7% from Conservative to Labour since 2011
Turnout: 26%

Aberaman North on Rhondda, Cynon, Taff (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 356 (39% -42%), Independent 276 (31%), Plaid Cymru 228 (25% +6%), TUSC 23 (3%), Conservatives 20 (2%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 80 (8%) on a swing of 36.5% from Labour to Independent

Birchills, Leamore on Walsall (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 1,075 (48% -7%), Conservative 710 (32% -2%), UKIP 445 (20%), Eng Dem 20 (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 365 (16%) on a swing of 2.5% from Labour to Conservative

Clewer North on Windsor and Maidenhead Royal (Ind Defence)
Result: Independent 878 (58%), Conservatives 486 (32%), Labour 158 (10%)
Independent HOLD with a majority of 392 (26%)
Turnout: 26%



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Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014

With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov.

The figures are in the chart above and it is interesting that YouGov and ICM, the ones that did best on May 22nd, are continuing to show UKIP with smaller shares for the general election compared with other pollsters.

Later this morning Lord Ashcroft is publishing his latest CON-LAB marginals poll. This covers 14 CON held constituencies and has a sample of 14k.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May Euro elections most right

Thursday, July 10th, 2014

YouGov, of course, was the most accurate pollster on the May 22nd Euro elections.



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A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid

Monday, June 23rd, 2014

So far predictions of its demise have been premature

A very large number of people predicted after the May 22nd elections that as we got closer to next May’s general election then UKIP’s totals would start to fade away.

Well it is now a month after we were digesting those results and the picture is pretty much the same. The evidence from the Ashcroft weekly phone poll is that it is staying solid as can be seen in the chart.

In a poll that didn’t receive much attention last week, TNS-BMRB, Ukip was on 23% – the largest ever share in a national voting intention survey.

Maybe things will start to get back to “normal” after the Scottish referendum and the party conferences. Maybe.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

Monday, June 9th, 2014

Getting even a single MP might be beyond the purples

There’s been lots of betting interest since EP14 and Newark over what UKIP will do at GE15. Will this be the election when the party that won the Euros actually gets it first MP or MPs?

We’ve been over this many times but it is hard ask for Farage’s team to get enough votes in at least one of the 650 seats that puts them over the line. As we all know Westminster seats are decided by first past the post.

    To put it into context. The lowest vote share achieved by a winning candidate at GE10 was the 29.4% for the LD Simon Wright in Norwich South. The biggest percentage that UKIP has ever chalked up in any Westminster seat, was the 27.8% at Eastleigh back in February 2013.

We are told that UKIP, aware of the problem, is trying to find its own Norwich Souths where high vote shares won’t be needed and victory might be possible with, say, 30-33%. In seats like this two or even three of the main Westminster parties would slugging it out. A danger for the purples is that a rallying cry for their opponents in targets seats will be “we are the only party that can stop UKIP” in an effort to win over tactical votes.

Given all the media attention that the leader gets Farage, himself, would appear to have one of the best chances and he’s expected to announce shortly where he plans to stand.

In a bet placed in May 2013 I’m on UKIP at 8/1 to win at least one seat In a bet placed with Hills and reported here in March 2013 I got 8/1 on UKIP securing more than one MP at GE15. I’m not confident that it’s a winner.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

Friday, June 6th, 2014

It’s ex-Tories over 65s that have driven the surge

Eastleigh’s 27.8% still the best-ever UKIP Westminster performance

Women voters: The big challenge facing Farage

Mike Smithson



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Why People Voted UKIP

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014

As part of the poll conducted for UKIP donor Paul Sykes, ComRes asked

How important was each of the following as a possible reason for your decision to vote UKIP at the European elections on Thursday? (Only those that replied 10/10 are shown – 10 being very important)


As we can see, Tighter immigration and leaving the EU are the prime movers. Although, I wish they had asked more reasons, such as Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg to be able to put the David Cameron figure into context. I was surprised to see Gay Marriage ranked so low.

For those who contend UKIP are taking votes equally from Labour and the Conservatives, of the ten out of tenners, 39% said the Labour Party doesn’t represent me any more, 33%  said the same for the Conservative party.

Whilst Nigel Farage’s ego may not like being at 25%, it is good for UKIP that they are drawing support for a variety of reasons, and not just primarily for their leader.

This poll leaves me with the impression, that any party that tries to “OutUKIP” UKIP will fail in winning back those who voted UKIP in the European elections because I don’t think any party will be able to offer policies that will satisfy these voters.

As we saw with the Ipsos-Mori issues index last week, UKIP voters are very different to other voters when it comes to the issues that are important to them the most. In the past I’ve been of the belief that UKIP would peak this year and fall back in next year’s General Election, this polling and other polling makes me think otherwise.

TSE