Archive for the 'UKIP' Category

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Why the decline of the BNP is good news for Farage’s UKIP

Friday, January 8th, 2016

The news this afternoon that the BNP is no longer officially a political party has been dismissed by party officials as an oversight. The move has, apparently, been caused by the failure of the party to send in the fee of £25 by the the due date with the result that it has been removed from the official list.

This means that BNP candidates won’t use the party’s name, description or emblems on ballot papers. But it’s expected that things will be put right by the May elections.

Whatever an admin failure like this does suggest that all is not well at BNP towers and the party is struggling.

The chart above suggested that the main beneficiary of the BNP fading out of the picture will be UKIP.

Mike Smithson





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Immigration might be the most important issue facing the country but it isn’t the only issue

Sunday, December 20th, 2015

If UKIP and Leave want to make further progress and win the referendum they need to talk about things other than immigration.

We see in the Ipsos Mori issues index (and in other polling) on a regular and consistent basis immigration/immigrants as the most important issue facing the UK yet if immigration/immigrants really was the most important issue then UKIP would have picked up more than one seat in May as David Cameron’s spectacular failure to cut net immigration in the last parliament would have damaged the Tory Party’s electoral prospects at the general election.

My own belief is the voters don’t focus on just the main issue when choosing how to vote, they look at a range of issues and judge which side has the best overall policies on these issues, I suspect the EU referendum will be no different. Another factor is when the question is asked slightly differently by YouGov And which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing you and your family? Immigration falls to third place behind the NHS and the economy.

The other way the Tories got around the immigration issue at the election was to pretty much ignore the issue and focus on other things. During the election campaign the Tory themes were nothing to do with immigration, but about the economy, the extra funds into the NHS, competence versus chaos, and of course the SNP. In ‘The British General Election of 2015’ book, Philip Cowley and Dennis Kavanagh noted

But the [Tory] party leadership calculated any attempt to win back the majority of Ukip supporters might alienate more moderate voters.

The book reads: “In 2012 an internal note for the Prime Minister noted: ‘There is nothing we could realistically say to persuade Ukip considerers that David Cameron’s Conservative Party shares (or even sympathises with) their general sense of cultural threat and anger about the pace of change in modern society.’

“Or rather, there was, but only at the cost of driving away other voters ‘upon whom our prospects of electoral victory depend’.”

This week it was reported about the recent failed talks between The Leavers People’s Front and The People’s Front for Leave to unify the two Leave camps

During what is described as a “cordial” meeting, Mills and Hodson were frank about their reservations. They cited what they see as Banks’ “erratic” behaviour and his determination to put immigration at the heart of the Brexit campaign as key barriers to a full merger. They also raised the thorny question of the role to be played by Nigel Farage, over which the rival campaigns disagree. (Vote Leave believes Farage is too divisive and politically damaged to lead the campaign, whereas leave.eu believes he must be at the forefront.)

So if Leave.eu are designated the official Leave campaign then expect them to focus a lot on immigration during the referendum campaign, this would be a mistake. One of the reasons I expected UKIP to do poorly in terms of seats was the polling prior to the general election showed the voters saw UKIP as the most extreme party and UKIP were more likely to have candidates with racist or offensive views than other political parties.

Farage’s HIV comments (as in the above video clip) might have reinforced those perceptions and put off the voters UKIP needed to win parliamentary seats, frankly it came across as nasty. You can understand why some voters might have voted tactically against UKIP in some seats.

There are arguments for Brexit other than immigration such as, inter alia, on economic grounds, protecting the City of London and on sovereignty grounds. 27% might be enough to win the European elections, but it won’t be enough to win a referendum. A referendum is a glorified First Past The Post election and UKIP have a poor record in First Past The Post elections, for those wanting to see Brexit, they most hope Leave doesn’t make the mistake UKIP did in May.

To win Leave needs to not keep banging on about immigration but present a positive and non nasty view about what Remaining in the EU/Brexit means for the future of the UK. Focusing solely on voters whose only issue is immigration will not win the referendum for Leave, there just aren’t that many type of voters as the results in May showed.

TSE



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By two to one UKIP voters tell YouGov that Donald Trump’s controversial Muslim immigration ban call was appropriate

Wednesday, December 9th, 2015



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Why it might not be wise for UKIP to go too hard on expenses and allowances in Oldham

Friday, November 20th, 2015

This from the UKIP candidate

And a bit of history



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In Oldham UKIP needs to be bettering or matching its Heywood and Middleton performance to show it still has momentum

Wednesday, November 11th, 2015

With the EU dominating the headlines the time should be ripe for the Purples

Because it is the first by-election of the current parliament and because of its proximity to Heywood & Middleton where UKIP came very close just over a year ago expectations are running very high for UKIP in Oldham.

The candidate is the same and, like Heywood, Oldham West and Royton as a constituency appears quite similar. So inevitably last year’s by-election outcome will be the yardstick on UKIP success/failure will be judged.

    Just getting a good second place won’t be enough – the LAB majority, if that is indeed what happens, needs to be kept in the hundreds not thousands.

This is particularly important because domestic politics is now so dominated by the EU referendum. A UKIP win or strong showing will send out a powerful message and Nigel Farage clearly knows that.

We know from past experience how Labour finds it challenging getting its vote out in heartland seats when the government of the country is not at stake.

Given how poorly constituency polls performed at the general election I’m not sure that we are going to see any by-election specific surveys. If you are having a punt then you are likely to be flying blind.

Second place and party performance betting markets are likely to come on stream shortly. Ladbrokes have the same price 5/6 on whether the LDs will or will not lose their deposit by failing to secure 5%. I’m on them doing it.

Mike Smithson





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John Bickley looks set to be UKIP’s choice in Oldham & Royton

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2015

Can he repeat his Heywood & Middleton magic?

One of the huge shocks, and what in retrospect turned out to be a good pointer to GE2015, was the way that UKIP ran LAB so close in the October 2014 by-election Heywood & Middleton which is very close to Oldham.

This, like Oldham & Royton, was in traditionally rock solid Labour territory yet UKIP got very near. What was particularly striking was how the polls got that election so wrong grossly over-stating the eventual LAB winning margin which turned out to be a foretaste of the general election.

Bickley is personable and a very experienced campaigner and could do very well on December 3rd – the date of the Oldham vote. The Ladbrokes 8/1 looks tempting.

Mike Smithson





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Farage and UKIP the big gainers in the October Ipsos phone poll

Monday, October 26th, 2015



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The great grad-non grad voting divide in both the US and UK

Sunday, October 25th, 2015

The above table highlights a big trend in the Republican primaries which has strong echoes in the UK. The quite different voting patterns of those who went to university and those who didn’t.

In the US at the moment this is highlighted by the make up of those supporting Donald Trump for the GOP nomination. In the UK it is seen in the way that graduates are much more likely to want to remain in the EU than non-graduates.

This was also a big feature at the general election in the distribution of the UKIP vote. The best indicator of whether a particular seat would have a large UKIP vote was if a higher than average proportion of people in the constituency were non-graduates.

Trump and Farage’s party UKIP both in their own ways appeal to very similar groups of voters. There’s a heavy opposition to political correctness in their rhetoric and, of course, there’s a similar focus on immigration.

Mike Smithson