Archive for the 'UKIP' Category

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Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014

With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov.

The figures are in the chart above and it is interesting that YouGov and ICM, the ones that did best on May 22nd, are continuing to show UKIP with smaller shares for the general election compared with other pollsters.

Later this morning Lord Ashcroft is publishing his latest CON-LAB marginals poll. This covers 14 CON held constituencies and has a sample of 14k.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May Euro elections most right

Thursday, July 10th, 2014

YouGov, of course, was the most accurate pollster on the May 22nd Euro elections.



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A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid

Monday, June 23rd, 2014

So far predictions of its demise have been premature

A very large number of people predicted after the May 22nd elections that as we got closer to next May’s general election then UKIP’s totals would start to fade away.

Well it is now a month after we were digesting those results and the picture is pretty much the same. The evidence from the Ashcroft weekly phone poll is that it is staying solid as can be seen in the chart.

In a poll that didn’t receive much attention last week, TNS-BMRB, Ukip was on 23% – the largest ever share in a national voting intention survey.

Maybe things will start to get back to “normal” after the Scottish referendum and the party conferences. Maybe.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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The big challenge now for UKIP: Securing enough votes in single seats well in excess of anything its achieved before

Monday, June 9th, 2014

Getting even a single MP might be beyond the purples

There’s been lots of betting interest since EP14 and Newark over what UKIP will do at GE15. Will this be the election when the party that won the Euros actually gets it first MP or MPs?

We’ve been over this many times but it is hard ask for Farage’s team to get enough votes in at least one of the 650 seats that puts them over the line. As we all know Westminster seats are decided by first past the post.

    To put it into context. The lowest vote share achieved by a winning candidate at GE10 was the 29.4% for the LD Simon Wright in Norwich South. The biggest percentage that UKIP has ever chalked up in any Westminster seat, was the 27.8% at Eastleigh back in February 2013.

We are told that UKIP, aware of the problem, is trying to find its own Norwich Souths where high vote shares won’t be needed and victory might be possible with, say, 30-33%. In seats like this two or even three of the main Westminster parties would slugging it out. A danger for the purples is that a rallying cry for their opponents in targets seats will be “we are the only party that can stop UKIP” in an effort to win over tactical votes.

Given all the media attention that the leader gets Farage, himself, would appear to have one of the best chances and he’s expected to announce shortly where he plans to stand.

In a bet placed in May 2013 I’m on UKIP at 8/1 to win at least one seat In a bet placed with Hills and reported here in March 2013 I got 8/1 on UKIP securing more than one MP at GE15. I’m not confident that it’s a winner.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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Round-up of the latest numbers and charts from this exceptional political period

Friday, June 6th, 2014

It’s ex-Tories over 65s that have driven the surge

Eastleigh’s 27.8% still the best-ever UKIP Westminster performance

Women voters: The big challenge facing Farage

Mike Smithson



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Why People Voted UKIP

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014

As part of the poll conducted for UKIP donor Paul Sykes, ComRes asked

How important was each of the following as a possible reason for your decision to vote UKIP at the European elections on Thursday? (Only those that replied 10/10 are shown – 10 being very important)


As we can see, Tighter immigration and leaving the EU are the prime movers. Although, I wish they had asked more reasons, such as Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg to be able to put the David Cameron figure into context. I was surprised to see Gay Marriage ranked so low.

For those who contend UKIP are taking votes equally from Labour and the Conservatives, of the ten out of tenners, 39% said the Labour Party doesn’t represent me any more, 33%  said the same for the Conservative party.

Whilst Nigel Farage’s ego may not like being at 25%, it is good for UKIP that they are drawing support for a variety of reasons, and not just primarily for their leader.

This poll leaves me with the impression, that any party that tries to “OutUKIP” UKIP will fail in winning back those who voted UKIP in the European elections because I don’t think any party will be able to offer policies that will satisfy these voters.

As we saw with the Ipsos-Mori issues index last week, UKIP voters are very different to other voters when it comes to the issues that are important to them the most. In the past I’ve been of the belief that UKIP would peak this year and fall back in next year’s General Election, this polling and other polling makes me think otherwise.

TSE



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If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

Sunday, June 1st, 2014

Traditional methodology might not be applicable

Tomorrow afternoon Lord Ashcroft is publishing his poll for Thursday’s Newark by-election which will be the only the second survey that’s been carried in what’s turning out to be a humdinger of a fight between UKIP and the Tories. Both have got historical baggage that a win could help them shed.

For you have to go back to William Hague’s victory in the N Yorks seat of Richmond in 1989 to find the last time that the blues held on to a by-election seat whilst in office. UKIP, of course, have never managed to win a Westminster constituency either in a general or a by-election. Their best performance was the 27.8% at Eastleigh in February last year.

    It is important to recall that all the polls in that contest, as the chart shows, understated the purples by quite some margin. None of them had UKIP any higher than third place.

It was a similar pattern in Corby in November 2012 when the Tories were trying to hang on to the seat following Louise Mensch’s decision to quit politics. The final Ashcroft poll had UKIP on just 6% – they ended up on 14.3%.

By-elections, of course, are susceptible to late swings which is what can make them so exciting. But I believe there are other methodological reasons why the polls have struggled with UKIP in by-elections in particular the reallocation of don’t knows or refusers to what they said they did at the previous general election.

I’ve been in correspondence with Lord Ashcroft about tomorrow’s Newark poll and have suggested that he highlights the pre-reallocated numbers. At Eastleigh that would have got his final poll a bit nearer to what UKIP achieved.

  • NOTE. All single seat polling is carried out by phone – unlike the Euros when all but one poll was carried out online.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the General Election

    Saturday, May 31st, 2014

    ComRes have polled on behalf of UKIP donor Paul Sykes asking what UKIP voters in the Euros would do at the next General Election, the telegraph reports that

    37 per cent of UKIP voters said that they were “certain” to support the party at the general election. Another 49 per cent said that they were “likely” to do so, while 14 per cent said that they would probably back another party. 

    To put this into context, last week, 4,376,635 people in this country voted UKIP, so if 86% of them voted UKIP in next year’s General Election, UKIP would receive at minimum 3,763,906 votes, in 2010, 919,471 people voted UKIP in the General Election.

    If this there were to happen, it would make the next General Election very hard to predict, as last week showed UKIP polled very well across the country, from the Tory heartlands, to Labour’s heartlands such as winning the vote in Doncaster and narrowly finishing second behind Labour in Wales.

    We could see all sorts of unusual results next year. We could more results like what we saw in Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber in the 1992 General Election, when the winning party won the seat with 26% of the vote, and the fourth place party a mere 3.4% behind first place.

    I hope more pollsters start polling questions like this, because how UKIP supporters and 2010 Lib Dems supporters vote in next years’s election are going to be the two main factors in determining the account of that election. Survation last week found that 71% of UKIP Euro voters would vote UKIP at the next General Election, so this 86% isn’t that outlandish.

    The full ComRes data tables are available here (and the sample size was 4,078)

    TSE