Archive for the 'UKIP' Category


The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP

Thursday, April 2nd, 2015

Like the GE10 LDs UKIP will be squeezed in the big party fights

Apart from the problems facing Nick Clegg and the latest on the CON-LD battles a striking feature of the latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling was the decline of UKIP.

These are all constituency fights where, with perhaps one possible exception, UKIP was not a contender and what happens – in every single case the purples see a sharpish reduction in their share.

The biggest slippage of all, Camborne+Redruth, had Farage’s party slipping from 26% in last June shortly after the Euros to 14% in this latest poll. At one stage UKIP had been seen as a serious contender there.

My guess is that when we see the latest from CON-LAB battlegrounds there’ll be a similar trend.

    UKIP’s vote will be squeezed where it is not in contention and at least two of the traditional three big parties are slugging it out. Farage’s party will struggle where it’s not relevant to the main battle at hand.

Where there isn’t a fierce constituency fight going on, the non-marginals in the red and blue heartlands, then UKIP might fare better. That is precisely what happened to the LDs in 2010. The Cleggasm did happen – but not in seats where it was going to affect the result.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum

Sunday, March 15th, 2015

As part of Nigel Farage’s book being serialised in the Telegraph,

The UK Independence Party leader says that he is willing to make a deal with the Tories on the condition that they hold an EU referendum before Christmas.

The detailed plans for a hung parliament set out that Ukip and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party would work together to support the Conservatives on a vote by vote basis.

Ukip – forecast to gain up to six seats in the election – would vote for the Conservative’s first Budget, which would be the first major test of this new right of centre alliance.

Until now Mr Cameron has only said that he will have a referendum – in which he would campaign to stay in a reformed EU – by the end of 2017

The risk for Farage and UKIP is that this sort of comment will put off Lab to UKIP voters in Labour held seats who were thinking of voting UKIP, Labour will be able to frame UKIP as being a vote for the Tories but it could reassure Con to UKIP switchers that voting UKIP won’t mean you got to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed.

It also has the the potential for Farage to appear to be more influential than he will be, as UKIP are on current estimates/forecasts on course for around four to six MPs, which is less than one per cent of the MPs in the next Parliament.

At the time of writing, midnight, it was 25/1 that there would a referendum in 2015 on our membership of the European Union. It is not a bet I’ll be taking up, as I just can’t see the numbers adding up for a Con and UKIP & DUP majority in May.



Marf on Farage’s comments about race relations legislation

Thursday, March 12th, 2015


A good move for UKIP or a bad one?

The big news this morning that Nigel Farage would axe many of the race laws is leading the bulletins and takes UKIP into an interesting political area.

Is this the dog whistle that will bring voters back to the party or will it galvanise those opposed to his party?

It is hard to say but it could have an explosive impact on the campaign.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


It looking as though Al Murray is starting to get under Nigel Farage’s skin

Tuesday, March 10th, 2015

farage ec

And that’s what the Pub Landlord really wants

One of the side-shows of May 7th is the Pub Landlord’s campaign in South Thanet, where Farage is seeking to win. It’s a tough three way marginal but the latest from Survation had him with a comfortable lead.

All of this makes his reaction to the Election Commission’s ruling on Al Murray and his FUKP party quite surprising and over the top.

What Farage need to do is go along with the joke. His current approach is badly judged.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP

Sunday, March 1st, 2015

Today it is being reported

Asked if he was in talks with Tory MPs about more defections, Mr Farage said: “The last time I spoke about this I said I would be surprised if there were not more.

“There is one conversation we are still having. But do you know what – it is not very relevant now. Last year it was a big deal.”

The honourable precedent that Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless have created where defectors trigger a by-election won’t apply this close to the dissolution of Parliament, so I wonder this makes the potential defector is either

i) someone standing down in May or

ii) someone whose majority wasn’t of a sufficient magnitude to guarantee a UKIP victory but a victory of Labour or the Lib Dems in a by-election.

The latter would reinforce the Tory line of “Go to bed with Farage and wake up with Miliband” which the Tories are convinced will win them back some Con to UKIP defectors.

A few bookies have a market up on whom the next Tory MP will be to defect, it might be worth backing Chris Kelly at 21/1 and David Nuttall at 25/1, both fit at least one of  the above criteria, and in Chris Kelly’s case, both.



The biggest source of Farage’s support in Thanet South: non voters at the last election

Friday, February 27th, 2015

There’s little doubt that one of the great successes that UKIP has had has been in engaging within the political process those who have never, or not recently, used their vote.

The above breakdown is from the latest Survation South Thanet poll illustrates this well. Because of the way the firm presents its data we are able to quantify the non-voting element.

A big question with non-2010 voting support is whether their backing can be relied on as much as those who do generally turnout for elections.

My reading of the data is that UKIP are ahead but not be the 11% margin that the headline figures pointed to.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


What’s dangerous for Farage about this UKIP defection is that it’ll raise questions again about his leadership style

Saturday, January 24th, 2015

The MEP is one of quite a few who’ve moved on

What makes this particularly striking is the timing so close to the general election, and the fact that Mr. Bashir follows a whole line of UKIP MEPs who’ve “moved on”.

The Tories will do anything to undermine the kippers as they see their vote seeping away to the purples. Many of those have to come back if they are to have any chance on May 7th.

It was being said by leading Tories last year that Lynton Crosby had a “lot up his sleeve” which would be deployed in the run up to polling day. Maybe tonight’s news is one of them.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

Friday, January 9th, 2015

The chances of the purples fading must now be lower

One of the features of general elections in recent times is that the Lib Dems always seem to get a boost during the campaign. Thus a 4-5% increase in their final share at the election compared with pre-formal campaign polls has almost been the norm.

What has driven this is the extra attention they get from the broadcast media in the formal campaign period – something that TV and Radio stations are broadly required to give them. This is in sharp contrast to non-elections times when the third party traditionally has struggled to secure the attention of the media.

UKIP’s slight dip in some polls in recent weeks is probably down to the fact that it has found it harder to make the news in the way it was doing after the Euros in May and following the high-profile defections and subsequent by-election victories from August to November. Now Farage and Carswell can look forward to getting almost guaranteed levels of coverage from the start of April.

So it must be possible that polling levels in the mid-teens might continue until May 7th with the consequential impact on the two big parties particularly the the Tories.

But the general election is about winning seats not building up national vote shares and UKIP needs to ensure that it maintains its focus on its key targets.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble