Archive for the 'UKIP' Category


Nigel Farage hints at another Tory defection to UKIP

Sunday, March 1st, 2015

Today it is being reported

Asked if he was in talks with Tory MPs about more defections, Mr Farage said: “The last time I spoke about this I said I would be surprised if there were not more.

“There is one conversation we are still having. But do you know what – it is not very relevant now. Last year it was a big deal.”

The honourable precedent that Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless have created where defectors trigger a by-election won’t apply this close to the dissolution of Parliament, so I wonder this makes the potential defector is either

i) someone standing down in May or

ii) someone whose majority wasn’t of a sufficient magnitude to guarantee a UKIP victory but a victory of Labour or the Lib Dems in a by-election.

The latter would reinforce the Tory line of “Go to bed with Farage and wake up with Miliband” which the Tories are convinced will win them back some Con to UKIP defectors.

A few bookies have a market up on whom the next Tory MP will be to defect, it might be worth backing Chris Kelly at 21/1 and David Nuttall at 25/1, both fit at least one of  the above criteria, and in Chris Kelly’s case, both.



The biggest source of Farage’s support in Thanet South: non voters at the last election

Friday, February 27th, 2015

There’s little doubt that one of the great successes that UKIP has had has been in engaging within the political process those who have never, or not recently, used their vote.

The above breakdown is from the latest Survation South Thanet poll illustrates this well. Because of the way the firm presents its data we are able to quantify the non-voting element.

A big question with non-2010 voting support is whether their backing can be relied on as much as those who do generally turnout for elections.

My reading of the data is that UKIP are ahead but not be the 11% margin that the headline figures pointed to.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


What’s dangerous for Farage about this UKIP defection is that it’ll raise questions again about his leadership style

Saturday, January 24th, 2015

The MEP is one of quite a few who’ve moved on

What makes this particularly striking is the timing so close to the general election, and the fact that Mr. Bashir follows a whole line of UKIP MEPs who’ve “moved on”.

The Tories will do anything to undermine the kippers as they see their vote seeping away to the purples. Many of those have to come back if they are to have any chance on May 7th.

It was being said by leading Tories last year that Lynton Crosby had a “lot up his sleeve” which would be deployed in the run up to polling day. Maybe tonight’s news is one of them.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

Friday, January 9th, 2015

The chances of the purples fading must now be lower

One of the features of general elections in recent times is that the Lib Dems always seem to get a boost during the campaign. Thus a 4-5% increase in their final share at the election compared with pre-formal campaign polls has almost been the norm.

What has driven this is the extra attention they get from the broadcast media in the formal campaign period – something that TV and Radio stations are broadly required to give them. This is in sharp contrast to non-elections times when the third party traditionally has struggled to secure the attention of the media.

UKIP’s slight dip in some polls in recent weeks is probably down to the fact that it has found it harder to make the news in the way it was doing after the Euros in May and following the high-profile defections and subsequent by-election victories from August to November. Now Farage and Carswell can look forward to getting almost guaranteed levels of coverage from the start of April.

So it must be possible that polling levels in the mid-teens might continue until May 7th with the consequential impact on the two big parties particularly the the Tories.

But the general election is about winning seats not building up national vote shares and UKIP needs to ensure that it maintains its focus on its key targets.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


More than a quarter of UKIP voters would prefer a LAB government and fewer than a third want a CON one

Saturday, January 3rd, 2015

Tonight’s poll


UKIP are betting favourites to win in just five seats at GE2015

Tuesday, December 30th, 2014

Given the way that the purples dominated the political narrative for a large part of 2014 it comes as something of a surprise to observe, as Antifrank does on his excellent blog, that UKIP is clear favourite in just five seats, all of them currently held by the Tories.

The constituencies are listed in the table above and clearly Douglas Carswell’s Clacton is by far the party’s best bet. I regard the 1/10 as as close to a near certainty as you are going to get at the net election.

Surprisingly his fellow MP and winner of the Rochester by-election, Mark Reckless, doesn’t make the list. He’s behind the Tories in the betting. I agree with AntiFrank that he is a good bet at 13/8. Because there are only two UKIP MPs he is going to get a fair bit of attention.

The reason why he’s not favourite is, I guess, the finding in the Lord Ashcroft by-election poll that the Tories would win there net May. I’m only partially convinced. The polling question, unlike the one for the by-election, did not refer to him by name which could have had an impact.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


Marf’s PB “UKIP Map of the World” cartoon erupts again – this time with a big story in the Mail

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

mapofworld (1)

Check out the Mail story here


The media narrative turns against the purples as the prospect of getting more MPs grows

Friday, December 12th, 2014

Whatever happens over Hamilton it will be wrong

The former Conservative MP for Tatton who lost out to Martin Bell in 1997 has been much in the news of late as he has tried to be selected for a winnable seat for UKIP at GE15. The latest development, according to a report on the FT’s front page, is that spread-betting multi-millionaire and second biggest donor to the party, Stuart Wheeler, has threatened to turn the tap off if Hamilton doesn’t get selected.

In the past week Hamilton’s efforts to be the Boston & Skegness candidate and now Basildon are said, according to reports, to have been thwarted by what are being described as “dirty tricks”.

A senior party member told the FT: “This is all to do with Nigel’s ego. He thinks he may not win in Thanet South [the seat for which he has been selected], so he is determined to bring Neil down. He cannot bear the thought Neil might be an MP but not Nigel.

This is the first general election, of course, where UKIP has a serious prospect of picking up some MPs and inevitably there’s a huge amount of media interest particularly when someone as well-known as Neil Hamilton is in the frame.

These latest developments come in a month when things have been tougher in the media for the party and its leader and it could be like this right up to May 7th.

The Hamilton case is difficult to resolve. Facing a crucial election UKIP desperately needs the resources that Stuart Wheeler is able to bring but it cannot be seen to be giving in to a major donor.

Mr. Wheeler used to be a big donor to the Conservatives. Maybe he could return.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble