Archive for the 'UKIP' Category


Steven Woolf, who was odds on favourite to replace Farage, quits the party

Monday, October 17th, 2016


Diane James has quit – But is Farage still leader?

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016



Another female UKIP leader is set to do a tribute to Lady Jane Grey as rumours swirl Diane James has quit as UKIP leader after just 18 days

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016

John Stevens is The Daily Mail’s Bruxelles correspondent, so this appears to be a well sourced story. After Suzanne Evans’ memorably short stint as UKIP leader, could Nigel Farage about to be the comeback kid, again, they do say, history does repeat, first as tragedy, then as Farage.




The big trend: CON and LAB are still failing to win voters from each other

Saturday, October 1st, 2016

Big Ben

The two big parties are left scrapping over the also rans

One of the more remarkable features of the polling in the last parliament was the almost complete inability of both Labour and Conservatives to win voters from each other. Vote shares may have gone up and down but it was gains from and losses to the Lib Dems, UKIP, the Greens and SNP (and non-voters) that was responsible; the direct swing between the big two was negligible.

As then, so now. All three polls released this last week tell the same story. ICM record 3% of the Labour vote from 2015 going to the Conservatives, with 3% of the Tories’ general election vote going back the other way; BMG’s figures are almost identical; YouGov have the Tories doing a little better, gaining 6% of Labour’s former vote while losing only 2% of their own but even there, that amounts to a swing of only a half per cent. We’re talking tiny numbers.

The current very comfortable Conservative leads are instead based on two different aspects. Firstly, the Tories are doing better at holding on to their own vote. ICM and YouGov record the Blues as keeping between 72-75% of their 2015 voters, against Labour’s 60-67% (this includes those who say they don’t know or would not vote). And secondly, the Conservatives have done better in the net swings from the lesser parties and in particular, from UKIP.

In fact, the notion that many Corbyn supporters have that the increase in the Conservative lead over the summer can be put down to the leadership challenge is at best only partly true. Labour’s introspection no doubt caused it to miss opportunities but the Labour share has drifted down only very slightly.

    Of far more significance since June has been what looks like a direct UKIP-Con swing, presumably off the back of both the end of the EURef campaign and the change in Conservative leader.

What looks to be the case is that Britain is a very divided country with the concept of the traditional swing Lab/Con voter close to extinct and instead, three distinct broad groups (with subdivisions but let’s keep this simple): those who would vote Conservative, those who would vote Labour and those who would vote neither (who, outside of Scotland, we can more-or-less ignore).

So while there’s barely any defecting between the Tory tribe and the Labour lot, they do potentially meet when they go walkabout elsewhere, to UKIP, the Lib Dems or (most frequently) to none of the above.

What that suggests is that the big boys, but especially Labour, need the also-rans to be performing fairly strongly. Without those parties being attractive enough to their rival’s supporters, the negative campaigning of old will be far less effective as voters might be disillusioned but find no real alternative home.

Interestingly, the Lib Dems have been performing fairly strongly against the Conservatives in local by-elections recently but this hasn’t made its way across into the national polls. All the same, that the party seems capable of big swings across the country suggests at least a willingness by Conservative voters to consider them again; a willingness that might translate into Westminster voting given the opportunity.

The Lib Dems will no doubt hope that the opportunity will come in Witney. That might be a little too early but with Con and Lab unable to take support from each other, with a far-left Labour and a Tory government engaged in debates about Europe, if they can’t take advantage in the next two years, they never will.

David Herdson


Brace yourselves for the right wing version of Momentum

Thursday, September 8th, 2016

A UKIP split could allow Mrs May to go for a soft Brexit without experiencing an electoral cost.

Today’s Times are reporting (££)

Ukip’s most high-profile donor hopes to start a new movement or party designed to “keep the Tories clean”.

Arron Banks, an insurance tycoon and co-founder of Leave.EU, is canvassing supporters of the Brexit campaign he financed. He said he wants to create a “right-wing Momentum”, a version of the hard-left network of Jeremy Corbyn supporters that has gained increasing influence over Labour.

He added that “almost 50 per cent of people surveyed” among Leave.EU’s supporters are interested in participating in a new movement. He did not rule out such an organisation becoming a registered political party that could field candidates at elections.

After the EU referendum and David Cameron’s resignation, Leave.EU endorsed Andrea Leadsom for Conservative leader, the first sign that the campaign group would seek to influence Tory party politics.

This is all very interesting, and it could shape the future of UK politics, if the Brexit right are split by infighting and discord it may allow Mrs May to go for a softer Brexit than many leavers might be happy with.

Instead of shouting betrayal at Mrs May the likes of the old UKIP and new UKIP might well be focused on shouting ‘betrayal’ at each other, the former would cost the Tories vote at the general election, the latter wouldn’t.

That said, I thought the ructions between Vote Leave and Leave.EU would be a hindrance to the Leave side during the referendum, but Leave still won.

The footage below is what a future Arron Banks/Nigel Farage right wing Momentum Group taking on UKIP will look like. (NSFW.)



The latest Farage farrago, Douglas Carswell is accused of helping the Tories defeat Farage in Thanet South

Thursday, August 25th, 2016

Can or will Douglas Carswell remain a UKIP MP if senior Kippers are making these allegations?

Forget traingate this is the political story of the week, although I can sympathise with those who say a UKIP internal squabbling story is up there with a dog bites man story, but this story has achieved that rare feat, leaving me lost for words.

Senior members of Ukip have accused the party’s only MP of helping the Conservatives defeat Nigel Farage in South Thanet in the general election last year, according to Ukip’s main donor, Arron Banks.

Farage, then the leader of Ukip, was beaten by the Tory candidate, Craig Mackinlay, after a controversial campaign in the Kent constituency.

Banks’s company has written to Kent police with the allegation that Douglas Carswell, the Ukip MP for Clacton, helped the Tory campaign retain the seat. It details allegations that Carswell downloaded Ukip data for South Thanet and passed it to the Conservatives, enabling them to do “push polling” of key voters.

Push polling is when an apparently unbiased telephone survey spreads negative rumours about a candidate.

Carswell defected to Ukip from the Tories in 2014 but has had a fraught relationship with both Banks and Farage.

According to the letter, Carswell was granted access to the Ukip database but then only accessed the South Thanet data.

A letter sent to the police by Precision Risk & Intelligence, where Banks is chief executive, claims that “we have evidence of excessive spending by the Conservatives and secretive dealings between them and a senior Ukip representative to collude against Mr Farage”.

It should be noted that Douglas Carswell has quite pithily denied these allegations, he said “There is no basis in these claims whatsoever. We should just be relieved that those responsible for the disastrous campaign in South Thanet were not responsible for the successful referendum campaign.” 

But given that these allegations it might be worth looking at this market being offered by Ladbrokes on Douglas Carswell resigning the UKIP whip in 2016.

Carswel Whip

Given the time constraints it is no bet for me, even given Carswell’s past form for leaving political parties and the allegations made against him this week, the bet will not pay out if he is expelled from UKIP. UKIP does have a history of kneecapping* the internal opponents of Nigel Farage, as Suzanne Evans, the Lady Jane Grey of UKIP, can attest to.


*That’s a metaphorical kneecapping, not a literal one.


Nigel Farage: the Comeback, Comeback, Comeback Kid?

Monday, August 15th, 2016

Ex-UKIP leader Farage on Vladimir Putin’s Russia Today

He appears to be planning a FOURTH return to the UKIP leadership

When Farage quit the UKIP leadership many were speculating that this was not the last we would see him flying the UKIP flag and there’ve been hints that this is the case.
In an interview on Russia Today suggested that he in fact might return as UKIP leader if Brexit is not delivered as he would like. He added that hoped he doesn’t have to but he would consider “plunging back in”.

If he did then it would be his fourth non-consecutive term leading Team Purple.

He first resigned the job in 2009 so that he could fight the speaker, John Bercow, in Buckingham. This proved to be a disaster in many ways. In the election, in which the mainstream parties did not stand, he was pushed into a poor third place on 17% behind a prominent pro-EU Conservative. On election day itself, of course, the private plane he was flying in towing a UKIP banner crashed and he was badly injured.

His next resignation came in the immediate aftermath of GE2015 when his party secured only one seat, the CON defector Douglas Carswell, and he himself was beaten by the Tories in Thanet South. That resignation lasted the weekend and by the following Tuesday he was back in the job.

In the current leadership race Farage’s favoured contender, Steven Woolfe, did not get on the ballot after a ruling by the party’s NEC.

Mike Smithson


Diane James now 75% favourite to be next UKIP leader

Wednesday, August 3rd, 2016

Does anybody know what this is about?