Archive for the 'UKIP' Category

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Latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling sees UKIP taking Thurrock but losing Rochester

Saturday, April 25th, 2015

Like in all Ashcroft seat polls the names of candidates were not included in the voting questions.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2015

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This does not bode well for Farage in Thanet South

South Thanet
Boston and Skegness
Thurrock
Forest of Dean
Great Yarmouth
North Thanet
East Worthing and Shoreham
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
South Basildon and East Thurrock
Castle Point

A new ComRes/ITV news battleground seats poll finds the Tories holding on reasonably well in 10 seats which UKIP has made key targets. Like in the similar poll last week of LD defences in the SW the pollster has not named candidates which I think is wrong this close to the election.

The aggregated numbers speak for themselves and suggest that the Tories are set to withstand the UKIP threat in almost all of them. The list includes, of course, Thanet South.

    One key factor is that the LD collapse has bolstered both the CON and LAB votes, and is one of the key reasons for UKIP’s failure to make first or second place. 25% of 2010 LD voters say they will now vote LAB, and 21% say CON with just 8% opting for UKIP.

As you’d expect older voters are much more likely to vote UKIP than younger voters. Only 8% of 18-34s say they will vote UKIP, compared with 25% of voters aged 55+.

This was a phone poll and as we have seen these tend to show smaller shares for UKIP and bigger shares for CON than surveys carried out online.

I think Rob Ford, one of the leading academic who has studied UKIP, makes valid points in these Tweets.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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New study points to UKIP’s support base being more middle class than was perceived

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2015

farage and carswell

British Electoral Study data sheds different light on the party

An analysis of data from the UK’s longest-running study of electoral behaviour has revealed how the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes.

British Election Study Co-Director Professor Geoffrey Evans and BES Research Fellow Dr Jonathan Mellon, from Nuffield College Oxford, say contrary to the popular view advocated by some academic researchers, working class voters are only a little more likely to support Ukip.

And Ukip voters, they add, resemble European ‘radical right’ parties: an alliance between the working class, the self-employed and employers – and not the disenfranchised, ‘left behind’ voters, described commonly by the media and influential academic commentators.

Professor Evans said: “The idea that many Ukip voters are working class and that they therefore pose a threat to Labour’s support in the election has gained considerable currency ….But we find this is wrong; the working class basis of Ukip has been strongly overstated.The Party’s strongest supporters are often the self-employed and business owners.”

“Even within the working class, Ukippers tend to be low level supervisors, and not the disadvantaged semi and unskilled workers often thought to provide the core of the Party’s support.”

Dr Mellon said: “Ukip’s support is very similar in social composition to many other so called ‘radical right’ parties elsewhere in Europe – an alliance between the working class and the self-employed and employers – rather than a party of the ‘left behind’.

“And significantly in electoral terms, the differences in sizes between social classes means that numerically, the bulk of Ukip’s support comes from the larger professional and managerial middle classes.”

Quite what all this means on May 7th is hard to say. If this analysis is right then LAB would appear to be less vulnerable to UKIP than had been thought.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Marf’s Tuesday afternoon’s take and LAB move from a 2% deficit to a 2% lead with TNS

Tuesday, April 21st, 2015

voterturnout

And UKIP appear to be edging back



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For the second weekend in a row UKIP are accused of burying a poll that shows them losing a seat they are expected to win

Sunday, April 12th, 2015

Will Reckless’ decision to defect turn out to be a reckless one?

This polling doesn’t come as a surprise, prior to the by-election last year, Lord Ashcroft’s polling found Reckless winning the by-election but losing at the general election.

It does fit in with the wider political narrative, such as last night’s Opinium, UKIP hitting a low that they last achieved in 2011.

Right now, if you think UKIP are going to flatter to deceive come May the 7th, you can get 7/2 on UKIP winning just one seat, as Douglas Carswell is in my opinion is going to win Clacton comfortably.

It maybe that UKIP do better in other seats, as has been noted,  Farage is a divisive figure, whilst Mark Reckless has earned the ire of many Tories, for the timing of his defection.

The Tories are 4/5 to take Rochester and Strood itself and UKIP are 11/10.

Some PBers may wish to exercise caution until we see the data tables from this poll.

TSE



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Private UKIP poll has Farage behind in South Thanet

Sunday, April 5th, 2015

Last night The Mail on Sunday reported

Nigel Farage faced claims of a ‘cover-up’ last night for censoring a poll that suggests he is on course for a humiliating personal defeat in the General Election.

The secret Ukip-commissioned poll, leaked to The Mail on Sunday, shows that Farage has fallen behind his Tory opponent in the Kent seat he is contesting. And he is in danger of finishing third, with Labour catching up fast. 

If the poll is accurate, it could end Farage’s political career as he has vowed to resign as Ukip leader if he fails to win South Thanet. The ComRes poll was commissioned last month by multimillionaire businessman and former Tory Arron Banks, who defected to Ukip last year and gave the party £1million.

Ukip hoped the Thanet poll would echo an earlier one showing Farage heading for a famous victory, and they planned to use it to whip up more support.

But when the result came through, Farage had a shock.

It showed Conservative candidate Craig Mackinlay, a former Ukip activist, on 30 points, one ahead of Farage, with Labour only one behind.

Farage was so alarmed he gave orders for the findings to be hushed up to avoid causing panic in Ukip ranks – and encouraging his rivals.

ComRes confirmed that they had carried out the poll.

This poll is somewhat different from the recent Survation poll which named the candidates and gave Farage an 11% lead but is in the same territory as the November Lord Ashcroft poll that had the Tories 1% ahead.

I still think Farage will win for the following reasons. He should theoretically get a boost with being the leader of a major party, which the Survation poll naming his saw the largest lead for UKIP, he was not named in the Lord Ashcroft polled.

The second way this poll helps UKIP and Farage, is by having the Tories and Labour with realistic chances of winning the seat, there’s no chance (if there ever was) of Tories or Labour supporters voting tactically to stop Farage and UKIP.

That said it might be value to back the Labour candidate, who at the time of writing, was 6/1 to win South Thanet.

Though people might wish to wait until they’ve seen the data tables before committing their money.

TSE

Other overnight polling headlines



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The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP

Thursday, April 2nd, 2015

Like the GE10 LDs UKIP will be squeezed in the big party fights

Apart from the problems facing Nick Clegg and the latest on the CON-LD battles a striking feature of the latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling was the decline of UKIP.

These are all constituency fights where, with perhaps one possible exception, UKIP was not a contender and what happens – in every single case the purples see a sharpish reduction in their share.

The biggest slippage of all, Camborne+Redruth, had Farage’s party slipping from 26% in last June shortly after the Euros to 14% in this latest poll. At one stage UKIP had been seen as a serious contender there.

My guess is that when we see the latest from CON-LAB battlegrounds there’ll be a similar trend.

    UKIP’s vote will be squeezed where it is not in contention and at least two of the traditional three big parties are slugging it out. Farage’s party will struggle where it’s not relevant to the main battle at hand.

Where there isn’t a fierce constituency fight going on, the non-marginals in the red and blue heartlands, then UKIP might fare better. That is precisely what happened to the LDs in 2010. The Cleggasm did happen – but not in seats where it was going to affect the result.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Nigel Farage’s offer to support a minority Conservative Government is a 2015 referendum

Sunday, March 15th, 2015

As part of Nigel Farage’s book being serialised in the Telegraph,

The UK Independence Party leader says that he is willing to make a deal with the Tories on the condition that they hold an EU referendum before Christmas.

The detailed plans for a hung parliament set out that Ukip and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party would work together to support the Conservatives on a vote by vote basis.

Ukip – forecast to gain up to six seats in the election – would vote for the Conservative’s first Budget, which would be the first major test of this new right of centre alliance.

Until now Mr Cameron has only said that he will have a referendum – in which he would campaign to stay in a reformed EU – by the end of 2017

The risk for Farage and UKIP is that this sort of comment will put off Lab to UKIP voters in Labour held seats who were thinking of voting UKIP, Labour will be able to frame UKIP as being a vote for the Tories but it could reassure Con to UKIP switchers that voting UKIP won’t mean you got to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed.

It also has the the potential for Farage to appear to be more influential than he will be, as UKIP are on current estimates/forecasts on course for around four to six MPs, which is less than one per cent of the MPs in the next Parliament.

At the time of writing, midnight, it was 25/1 that there would a referendum in 2015 on our membership of the European Union. It is not a bet I’ll be taking up, as I just can’t see the numbers adding up for a Con and UKIP & DUP majority in May.

TSE