Archive for the 'UKIP' Category

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UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough

Wednesday, August 27th, 2014

CON-held seats are the primary focus

Whenever kippers talk about their progress in 2014 they point first to their success in the May 22nd Euros. Coming top of the poll was a major breakthrough, helped by the unique closed regional list voting system.

In the first past the post elections held on the same day it was a different story – dropping 6 points on national equivalent vote share on their 2013 performance and securing 3.8% of the seats.

In this year’s Westminster by-elections they’ve chalked up respectable second places but to get an MP you need to top the poll in one of the 650 constituencies and they’ve been a long way from that.

    On the face of it a party that’s polling in the high teens should be expecting some MPs on May 7th next year but first past the post can be brutal to parties whose support is relatively even spread across the nation.

So the news that they’ve drawn up a short-list of 12 seats to be their GE2015 is important. Eastleigh, where they secured their best ever Westminster vote share in February last year is there and, so, too, are eight other seaside type seats.

Just one is currently held by Labour – an interesting decision given Farage’s rhetoric a couple of months ago about Labour being the main target.

The list above, based on one from the Ladbrokes political specialist, Shadsy, highlights first the Ladbrokes odds. In olnly one, Thanet South is UKIP the favourite.

Ladbrokes make zero seats at 11/8 the odds on how many of the 12 will go purple.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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George needs to find a way of making UKIP voters less economically pessimistic

Monday, August 18th, 2014

An opportunity for the Tories in the 2015 budget?

One of the great things about taking part in Edinburgh Festival of Politics was being able to meet up again with Professor John Curtice, who must be the county’s leading political scientist.

Talking about UKIP voters he made a point that I’ve not really looked at before – their economic pessimism particularly when related to their own situations. Look at the chart above based on data from yesterday’s YouGov/ST poll.

The Curtice view is that negative views on economic and financial matters are even greater defining features of UKIP voters than what they think about the EU or immigration.

Measures such pumping government money into schemes like “help to buy” properties really don’t impact on many UKIPers.

Increasing the minimum wage, however, might resonte.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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UKIP drops to its lowest point since February 2013 with Opinium

Saturday, August 2nd, 2014

For the past two years or so the fortnightly Opinium survey for the Observer has been one that has had some of the highest shares for UKIP – even, at times, into the 20s. This has happened even though Opinium doesn’t prompt for the purples and has them categorised as “some other party”.

The firm’s high UKIP shares have been seen in both Westminster voting intention polls and in the Euros.

Thus the final Opinium poll ahead of the May 22nd EP elections the firm had the party on 32% – which was five points more than actually happened.

So the fact that, as seen in the PB polling average for July reported on by David Herdson in the last thread, the firm is showing UKIP on the decline is noteworthy. You have to go back as far as February 2013 to find an Opinium Westminster poll with UKIP at a lower level than tonight’s 15%.

A challenge for the party is that it is finding it a lot harder to get media attention as during the build-up to May 22nd. Then, of course, UKIP had been classified as a “major party” by OFCOM which meant that it got substantially greater coverage on radio and TV.

The Tories, in particular, will be hoping that Farage’s party gets squeezed much further as the focus will all be on the LAB-CON ahead for GE2015.

By 63% to 19% those polled by Opinium said they want NO to win the Scottish IndyRef.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

Monday, July 28th, 2014

And a lot of 2010 non-voters seem to back Farage’s party

The above chart is based on the aggregate data from Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling which had a total sample of 14,004.

The first factor to stand out is that much more of UKIP’s current support in these key battlegrounds continues to come from ex-Tories than from ex-LAB voters. This means, of course, that the blues will benefit most should UKIP support fade.

Secondly, given UKIP only got 3.1% nationally in 2010, a very high proportion of current UKIP voters did not vote at the last election.

All this unerpins the claims by LAB in the Telegraph this morning that “Ukip voters will make Ed Miliband Prime Minister”. The report quotes a LAB figure:-

“The Tories lose a lot more than we do from a decent Ukip performance,” said a senior Labour campaign source. “The whole election could hang on how many of their current voters stick with them next May.”

I think that’s right and this will impact on Labour’s approach in the coming months. Ed Miliband’s team will be increasingly resistant to pressure from some in the party to make policy moves to attract UKIP votes.

That means, I’d suggest, no Labour promise on an EU in/out referendum.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Local By-Election Results: July 24th 2014

Friday, July 25th, 2014

Clifton on Blackpool (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 501 (41%), UKIP 362 (30%), Conservatives 283 (23%), Liberal Democrats 33 (3%), Greens 25 (2%), TUSC 10 (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 139 (11%)
Turnout: 23%

(Grateful thanks to Blackpool Council for their publication of the result and vote shares)

Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun on Doncaster (Lab Defence)
Result: UKIP 1,203 (41%), Labour 1,109 (38% unchanged), Conservatives 479 (16% +2%), Greens 160 (5%)
UKIP GAIN from Labour with a majority of 94 (3%) on a swing of 20.5% from Labour to UKIP since 2012
Turnout: 28%

Staplehurst on Maidstone (Con Defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 609 (36% +24%), Conservatives 603 (36% -21%), UKIP 311 (19%), Labour 117 (7% -8%), Greens 41 (2% -6%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 6 (0%) on a swing of 22.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Longhougton on Northumberland (Ind Defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 742 (50%), Conservatives 352 (24% +9%), Independents 206 (14%), UKIP 146 (10% +2%), Labour 48 (3%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Independent with a majority of 390 (26%) on a swing of 20.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Southcote on Reading (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 1,019 (59% +3), Conservative 340 (20% -11%), UKIP 226 (13%), Greens 69 (4% -2%), Liberal Democrats 49 (3% -4%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 679 (39%) on a swing of 7% from Conservative to Labour since 2011
Turnout: 26%

Aberaman North on Rhondda, Cynon, Taff (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 356 (39% -42%), Independent 276 (31%), Plaid Cymru 228 (25% +6%), TUSC 23 (3%), Conservatives 20 (2%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 80 (8%) on a swing of 36.5% from Labour to Independent

Birchills, Leamore on Walsall (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 1,075 (48% -7%), Conservative 710 (32% -2%), UKIP 445 (20%), Eng Dem 20 (1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 365 (16%) on a swing of 2.5% from Labour to Conservative

Clewer North on Windsor and Maidenhead Royal (Ind Defence)
Result: Independent 878 (58%), Conservatives 486 (32%), Labour 158 (10%)
Independent HOLD with a majority of 392 (26%)
Turnout: 26%



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Polling UKIP: The recent record shows that YouGov got closest with ICM in second place

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014

With so much variation in the UKIP share in recent polls it is perhaps worth recalling that the firm that got it most right the last time they were tested, the May 22nd Euros, was YouGov.

The figures are in the chart above and it is interesting that YouGov and ICM, the ones that did best on May 22nd, are continuing to show UKIP with smaller shares for the general election compared with other pollsters.

Later this morning Lord Ashcroft is publishing his latest CON-LAB marginals poll. This covers 14 CON held constituencies and has a sample of 14k.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Ukip shares edging down with the pollster that got the May Euro elections most right

Thursday, July 10th, 2014

YouGov, of course, was the most accurate pollster on the May 22nd Euro elections.



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A month after the local and Euro elections there is no sign that UKIP support is anything but solid

Monday, June 23rd, 2014

So far predictions of its demise have been premature

A very large number of people predicted after the May 22nd elections that as we got closer to next May’s general election then UKIP’s totals would start to fade away.

Well it is now a month after we were digesting those results and the picture is pretty much the same. The evidence from the Ashcroft weekly phone poll is that it is staying solid as can be seen in the chart.

In a poll that didn’t receive much attention last week, TNS-BMRB, Ukip was on 23% – the largest ever share in a national voting intention survey.

Maybe things will start to get back to “normal” after the Scottish referendum and the party conferences. Maybe.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter