Archive for the 'UKIP' Category

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Hills make it odds-on that UKIP won’t have a single MP after the next election

Monday, November 28th, 2016

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Nuttall’s first goal as UKIP leader is winning under first past the post

Monday, November 28th, 2016

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BREXIT means no UKIP MEPs from 2019

Today marks another new chapter in UKIP’s short history with the election by a substantial majority of members of Paul Nuttall as party leader. He’s from the North West and has a very different back story than the public-school former city trader, Nigel Farage, that he replaces.

Nuttall said his first objective was to take the battle to Labour which under Corbyn has looked weaker and extremely vulnerable particularly in its heartlands. If Nuttall’s UKIP can do to the red team what the SNP did in Scotland then then Corbyn’s party could be in serious trouble.

Credible parties need elected representatives and this is where UKIP have really struggled when the elections are under first past the post. They’ve just one MP and a relative handful of local councillors given the vote shares that they’ve been managing in recent years.

The other area where they’ve had reasonable success has been winning the PR-related list seats on the Welsh Assembly where overall vote totals matter. Unfortunately the next set of these elections is 2021.

So with the sizeable UKIP representation in Brussels, elected under a form of proportional representation, due to end in less than four years Nuttall needs to build an electoral force that can win when what matters is coming top in a constituency or a ward.

Mike Smithson




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The UKIP meltdown continues with Diane James, the last elected leader, quitting the party

Monday, November 21st, 2016

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29% of those who’ve served as UKIP MEPs since 2009 have either been expelled or quit

This afternoon’s big news from UKIP has been that Diane James, who won the November leadership contest only to pull out after 18 days, has now quit the party. She wants to remain as an MEP and is hoping to sit as an independent.

She came to the forefront in February 2013, when she got very close in the Eastleigh by-election beating the Tories in the race to fill the seat vacated by Chris Huhne.

Her decision this afternoon brings to nine the number of those who’ve served as UKIP MEPs since the 2009 Euro election having been forced out or going of their own accord.

Quite what is happening to the party, which continues to poll in double figures, is hard to say. Clearly Nigel Farage was a massive personality and his decision, once again to step down as leader, has left a massive hole at the top.

Meanwhile the latest ICM poll has found that 58% to 20% of those sampled said Farage should not be given a peerage. This includes 25% of GE2015 UKIP voters.

This means that the Tories have been in the 40s in every single published poll since conference season in September Corbyn was re-elected LAB leader.

Mike Smithson




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Unless the betting is wildly wrong Paul Nuttall looks set to be UKIP’s next leader

Monday, October 31st, 2016

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His first challenge: planning for the loss of all UKIP’s MEPs

The UKIP leadership race is down to four with Paul Nuttall the 1/4 odds-on favourite. It is hard to see anyone beating him.

The Merseysider has been a growing force within the party and the hope is that he will help UKIP challenge in Labour strongholds in the north. Certainly he’s an increasingly confident media performer and will set a different tone from Nigel Farage.

Second in the betting is Suzanne Evans who looked more able to appeal to voters in southern England.

    One feature of BREXIT is that the party’s traditional political stronghold, the European Parliament, where the party has been helped enormously the PR voting system, will no longer be an option from 2019. At the 2014 Euro elections UKIP came top winning most seats.

UKIP has to start learning to win under first past the post elections – something which it has struggled with – and the only MP is the semi-detached Douglas Carswell who, of course, defected from the Tories.

Mike Smithson




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The PB Polling Matters TV Show & Podcast: Brexit, Zac’s by-election, UKIP’s leadership and whether LAB has a polling floor

Wednesday, October 26th, 2016

Detailed analysis of the issues and the numbers

A huge amount has happened in UK politics since the last show two weeks ago and joining Keiran Pedley (@KeiranPedley) are Asa Bennett (@AsaBenn) of the Telegraph and Leo Barasi (@leobarasi) of noiseofthecrowd.com

BREXIT still totally dominates UK politics and the programme seeks to look at its likely impact in the by-election and, of course, the impact on the differents part of the UK.

Another area for analysis is Labour’s polling plight and whether there is a floor. Also in the show is a look at the UKIP leadership fight and the prospects for a Stop Brexit party.

Update – The audio only version of the podcast is available below.

Mike Smithson




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Updated UKIP leader betting and some of the controversial Tweets

Tuesday, October 25th, 2016

What Raheem Kassam Tweeted about Nicola Sturgeon

And others..

Earlier version of this post appeared last night for a short period



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Steven Woolf, who was odds on favourite to replace Farage, quits the party

Monday, October 17th, 2016



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Diane James has quit – But is Farage still leader?

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016

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