Archive for the 'UK Elections – others' Category


YouGov has Tessa Jowell leading the way in London as next LAB candidate for mayor

Monday, June 23rd, 2014

One of the great political betting events is the fight every four years for Mayor of London and the next contest is just 22 months away.

Coming up in the next few months will be Labour’s selection process for their nominee who, given the party’s huge success in the capital on May 22nd, should be in with a strong chance. London was where they did best of all and within the party a lot of the credit for that has gone to the shadow minister for London, Sadiq Khan.

Back in March 2013 Henry G Manson tipped him here when Khan was an attractive 33/1. This is what he wrote then:-

“What puts Sadiq Khan in such a great place for this contest is that Ed Miliband also made him Shadow Minister for London… This remit will enable him to meet, speak, campaign, engage with the whole London electoral college for this selection ahead of elections in 2014 and the general election a year later.”

Sadiq’s now 8/1 which I think is still good value.

As to the polling this is little more than a recognition issue. Tessa has been about for many years and is far better known. My reading is that Sadiq would b in with 50-50 chance of beating her for the selection.

As to the actual election a lot depends on what Boris plans to do.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


Last Thursday’s local elections: Andy JS’s annual compilation of the actual vote totals from every ward that was fought

Wednesday, May 28th, 2014

UKIP winning almost one in six of all voters

Thanks to Andy JS who has done a brilliant job collecting and recording the data from each of the thousands of individual seats that were fought on May 22nd. This is the second year he has done this and provides a vital resource.

Generally he has had to go into every local authority website and transpose the detailed results from each individual ward onto his spreadsheet.

These figures differ considerably from the notional national vote extrapolations put out by the broadcasters and Professors Rallings and Thrasher on the night and on the following two days. They were serving a different purpose trying to relate the elections to a general election.

The reason why Labour appears to have done so well is that this year’s local were fought in areas that, in the main, were favourable to the party.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


As the results start to come in it’s a great night for UKIP

Monday, May 26th, 2014

For the Lib Dems, it could be their worst nightmare, as Tim Farron talks about them having zero MEPs, whilst Doncaster is won by UKIP, David Herdson suggestion from last week isn’t so outlandish now is it?



UPDATE III – Lib Dems do get an MEP




The European Elections Results Thread

Sunday, May 25th, 2014

eu flag

The results should start to be announced shortly, please use this thread to discuss the results.



The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive is how many Ukip supporters mistakenly vote for “An Independence from Europe”

Thursday, May 22nd, 2014

Standby for a row if AIFE’s total is bigger than Ukip’s losing margin

With YouGov’s final EP2014 poll showing Ukip with a lead of just 1% it is possible that what stops Farage’s party from winning on votes will be the spoiler party “An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now”.

The consensus of election experts that I contacted yesterday reckoned that simply by being top of the ballot and having “UK Independence” in their description (see picture) could give it a vote share of 2% or more which, if YouGov’s final poll is right will be enough to swing the result.

Back in 2004 in a SW Euro seat a candidate calling himself a “Literal Democrat” appeared on the ballot above the Liberal Democrat candidate. The former picked up nearly 5% of the vote which was several times more than the losing margin. The Lib Dems tried to get the result over-turned in the High Court but lost.

Over the past fortnight Ukip have been acutely aware of the problem and has been taking active campaigning steps to alert potential voters of the problem. Nigel Farage spoke at the weekend of postal voters who had contacted the party to say they had got it wrong. He was hugely critical the Electoral Commission for allowing AIFE to be created in this manner.

If it should happen that Ukip is deprived is deprived of victory then expect a huge row which will go on for months.

Unlike the Literal Democrat AIFE is a legitimate party and was formed by ex-Ukip MEP and deputy leader, Mike Natrass, after he’d been de-selected.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


Concern about ballot form confusion could be behind falling off of Ukip in most EP seats Betfair markets

Monday, May 5th, 2014


The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

Tuesday, April 29th, 2014

For two decades Professors Rallings & Thrasher have been producing forecasts ahead of the May local elections based on their local by-election model. Usually these are “revealed” at a special briefing at the Institute of Government organised by the Political Studies Association which is what I’ve been attending today.

This is an event that the party spinners absolutely hate because they feel they are being set targets that they might find challenging to meet. The LAB view is that they are not going to make anything like the 490 seat target.

The figures are in the charts above. Last year they overstated CON (+3), LAB (+9), LD (+3) while understating what UKIP achieved by 11.

This year it is different though it is important to note that although UKIP is projected to win more votes the LDs will win get more councillors elected.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change

Wednesday, April 23rd, 2014

The LDs back in double figures

This morning’s Sun sees the first post holiday weekend Euros poll from YouGov and the only changes on the the last survey are all within the margin of error. LAB no change, UKIP and CON both down one with the LDs back up one at 10%.

Clegg’s party will be relieved that the negative reaction to the debates with Farage seem to be fading and that a 10% share should not produce the wipe out of their MEP contingent in Brussels that many have talked about.

At this stage it is hard to draw any conclusions about the impact of the UKIP £1.5m poster campaign which has just been launched.

The purples are relying very much on their big billboard campaign across the country which is the same approach as five years ago when they came in second place on votes with a share of 16.5%.

    The same poll suggests that the Euro elections are special and that UKIP will be down to 12% at the general election.

The Westminster voting intentions are LAB 37, CON 35, LD 10 and UKIP 12.

Voting for the May 22nd local and Euro elections will start for those registered for postal votes in less than a fortnight.

The big long term question is whether UKIP will be able to carry over the momentum of a big Euro election performance into the general election – something they’ve not been able to achieve in the past.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble