Archive for the 'UK Elections – others' Category
To win the numbers of seats on Thursday that are being predicted then LAB will have to take many from 3rd place
Monday, April 29th, 2013
The Ralllings and Thrasher May 2 projection: Interactive chart
Sunday, April 28th, 2013
Meanwhile best YouGov poll for LAB since April 17
CON 31, LAB 40, LD 11, UKIP 11
To YouGov question on who you’d vote for if all parties had chance of winning seat it was CON 26, LAB 37, LD 12, UKIP 18. So here the Tories are just 8% ahead of Ukip.
Meanwhile best YouGov poll for LAB since April 17
CON 31, LAB 40, LD 11, UKIP 11
To YouGov question on who you’d vote for if all parties had chance of winning seat it was CON 26, LAB 37, LD 12, UKIP 18. So here the Tories are just 8% ahead of Ukip.
Into unknown territory with Ukip – just how much will Farage’s party impact on next week’s outcomes?
Wednesday, April 24th, 2013
Prof Colin Rallings talking about the Ukip factor at today’s briefing on next week’s local elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2013
Chart from Prof John Curtice at today’s local elections briefing showing how the Tories are being most hit by Ukip twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2013
Today I’ve been at the annual briefing organised by the Political Studies Association on the May local elections. On the panel were Professor John Curtice from Strathclyde and Professors Rallings and Thrasher from the University of Plymouth.
Their overall prediction for council seats won/lost, based on their local by-elections model is CON – 310, LAB +350, LD – 130, UKIP +40.
For me one statistic stood out and that is in the picture above : In local by-elections in seats where Ukip stood before the purples are seeing an average increase in their vote share of 12.2%
If they do anything like that a week tomorrow then the Tories could be in trouble.
A key factor is that most of the seats up and intra-coalition fights where the last time both CON and LD occupied the top two slots.
So some of the seepage from the yellows might be more than made up by the purples siphoning off the blue votes.
The LDs, of course, will get smashed where they are defending against LAB.
The big message from an absorbing session is that all bets are off as we enter the world of four party politics.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
Prof Colin Rallings talking about the Ukip factor at today’s briefing on next week’s local elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2013
Chart from Prof John Curtice at today’s local elections briefing showing how the Tories are being most hit by Ukip twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2013
Today I’ve been at the annual briefing organised by the Political Studies Association on the May local elections. On the panel were Professor John Curtice from Strathclyde and Professors Rallings and Thrasher from the University of Plymouth.
Their overall prediction for council seats won/lost, based on their local by-elections model is CON – 310, LAB +350, LD – 130, UKIP +40.
- For me one statistic stood out and that is in the picture above : In local by-elections in seats where Ukip stood before the purples are seeing an average increase in their vote share of 12.2%
If they do anything like that a week tomorrow then the Tories could be in trouble.
A key factor is that most of the seats up and intra-coalition fights where the last time both CON and LD occupied the top two slots.
So some of the seepage from the yellows might be more than made up by the purples siphoning off the blue votes.
The LDs, of course, will get smashed where they are defending against LAB.
The big message from an absorbing session is that all bets are off as we enter the world of four party politics.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
LAB set to win the battle for votes on May 2nd – but the blues, surely, will still win most seats?
Sunday, April 21st, 2013
The Rallings & Thrasher national vote share projections based on local by-elections for May 2 locals. Changes on 2009 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013
The Sunday Times today publishes the annual projection of national equivalent national vote share for the May local elections based on the performances of the parties in local by-elections.
This, of course, is the production of the duo of Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher from the University of Plymouth. They, alongside Professor John Curtice, are due to take part in a briefing sessions in Westminster on Wednesday morning when hopefully we’ll get more details and more detailed projections.
One thing that will complicate matters this year, and provide some good cover for the spinners from parties likely to lose out, is that about a third of the seats coming up have been subject to boundary changes since they were last fought in June 2009.
Generally the Press Association only records gains where the boundaries are unchanged and this is likely to be the pattern a week on Friday and how it will be reported on the BBC
2009, of course, was a high point for the Tories and a low one for Labour.
Because the Tories are defending about 70% of the seats then they’ve got so much more to lose. The current forecast is that Labour will gain 350, while the Tories will lose 310 and the Liberal Democrats 130.
So even with all of this the Tories are set to win most council seats even though LAB will have the greater national equivalent vote share.
The big question is the Ukip total.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
The Rallings & Thrasher national vote share projections based on local by-elections for May 2 locals. Changes on 2009 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013
The Sunday Times today publishes the annual projection of national equivalent national vote share for the May local elections based on the performances of the parties in local by-elections.
This, of course, is the production of the duo of Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher from the University of Plymouth. They, alongside Professor John Curtice, are due to take part in a briefing sessions in Westminster on Wednesday morning when hopefully we’ll get more details and more detailed projections.
-
One thing that will complicate matters this year, and provide some good cover for the spinners from parties likely to lose out, is that about a third of the seats coming up have been subject to boundary changes since they were last fought in June 2009.
Generally the Press Association only records gains where the boundaries are unchanged and this is likely to be the pattern a week on Friday and how it will be reported on the BBC
2009, of course, was a high point for the Tories and a low one for Labour.
Because the Tories are defending about 70% of the seats then they’ve got so much more to lose. The current forecast is that Labour will gain 350, while the Tories will lose 310 and the Liberal Democrats 130.
So even with all of this the Tories are set to win most council seats even though LAB will have the greater national equivalent vote share.
The big question is the Ukip total.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
The apparent greater enthusiasm amongst Ukip supporters could be reflected in the May 2nd locals where the Tories are the most vulnerable
Saturday, April 20th, 2013
A factor driving Ukip in the national polls. Their supporters are much more likely to say”100% certain to vote” twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013
Ladbrokes open the first market on the May 2 locals. It’s 5/2 that UKIP gain 100+ seats. bit.ly/c5gpH6
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013
Just how many seats will the purples win?
The big talking point at last night’s PB gathering at Dirty Dicks in London was how many seats will Ukip pick up in the local elections a week on Thursday.
I know that one or two of those attending agreed wagers and today Shadsy, who was at the party, from Ladbrokes has put up a betting market on the purples chalking up 100+ gains.
One thing that’s becoming clear is the great enthusiasm for their party that many Ukip supporters seem to have.
That’s reflected in the latest Ipsos-MORI polling featured above where 85% of those saying they’re 100% certain to vote at the next general election which is well ahead of the other parties.
We’ve seen in recent local elections that Ukip is securing an increasing share of the vote as well as picking up seats. In the past seven weeks three have been taken from the Tories.
For me the big consequence of the Ukip surge is not going to be the number of seats but how the syphoning off of support will impact on the Tory performance.
The blues are particularly vulnerable simply because they are defending twice as many seats as Labour and the LDs combined.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
A factor driving Ukip in the national polls. Their supporters are much more likely to say”100% certain to vote” twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013
Ladbrokes open the first market on the May 2 locals. It’s 5/2 that UKIP gain 100+ seats. bit.ly/c5gpH6
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013
Just how many seats will the purples win?
The big talking point at last night’s PB gathering at Dirty Dicks in London was how many seats will Ukip pick up in the local elections a week on Thursday.
I know that one or two of those attending agreed wagers and today Shadsy, who was at the party, from Ladbrokes has put up a betting market on the purples chalking up 100+ gains.
-
One thing that’s becoming clear is the great enthusiasm for their party that many Ukip supporters seem to have.
That’s reflected in the latest Ipsos-MORI polling featured above where 85% of those saying they’re 100% certain to vote at the next general election which is well ahead of the other parties.
We’ve seen in recent local elections that Ukip is securing an increasing share of the vote as well as picking up seats. In the past seven weeks three have been taken from the Tories.
For me the big consequence of the Ukip surge is not going to be the number of seats but how the syphoning off of support will impact on the Tory performance.
The blues are particularly vulnerable simply because they are defending twice as many seats as Labour and the LDs combined.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
Henry G Manson on the LAB effort to take away the Tories most prized northern asset – the N Tyneside mayoralty
Friday, April 19th, 2013
EdM on ferry crossing the Tyne to support campaign to win back for LAB the North Tyneside mayoralty from the Tories twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2013
Henry G Manson on an intriguing battle
There has been some discussion this week on the strength of didn’t women MPs in the Conservative Party and in Labour with some wondering if there will be another ‘Margaret’ in the near future. I can’t spot many, although a couple of years ago I wrote this piece asking if one newly elected female MP could be a ‘Thatcher’ to Cameron’s ‘Heath’.
In the meantime it’s worth watching an intriguing local election battle between two strong women who don’t mince their words.
The Conservatives have won 3 out of 4 mayoral elections in North Tyneside. The sitting mayor Conservative Linda Arkley has held the position twice. The 2009 election saw her win by four and half thousand votes winning 45% of first preference votes, to Labour’s 34%.
Despite failing to dislodge popular MP Alan Campbell in Tynemouth constituency, there remains a sizeable Conservative vote in North Tyneside borough. Even when a former mayor had to resign in the most controversial circumstances, the Conservatives won the subsequent mayoral by-election.
This contest is significant for a number of reasons.
The Conservatives aren’t over-endowed with Northern strongholds and winning again in North Tyneside would be a boost to David Cameron and support his efforts to challenge in all parts of the country.
In a rare red-blue fight it should prove a sterner test for Labour than the Liberal Democrats have so far provided in the North. Labour’s candidate is a former headteacher and her campaign has made much of her ability to restore order and discipline in the local council.
Mayor Arkley has tried to emphasise her local cuts aren’t of the scale of nearby Newcastle City Council. There is little love lost between these two women and the contest is simmering away just nicely.
Recently the Mayor was asked to leave a council meeting after a heated exchange of words with other councillors. She has since pulled out of hustings with rival candidates.
It’s understandable that there is attention given to the parliamentary by-election in nearby South Shields. However it is north of the river in North Tyneside where the real battle lay.
It will be more instructive to the strength of the Conservative Party’s remaining northern defences. If Labour wins then it won’t give any indication of its ability to win in the South, but it will deny the blues a very important electoral oasis in the North and cast serious doubt on their attempts to make gains here. Despite the lack of betting markets it is an election worth keep a look out for. Plus whoever wins this will see a strong female local leader who knows her own mind and doesn’t suffer fools. Maggie would be proud.
Henry G Manson
EdM on ferry crossing the Tyne to support campaign to win back for LAB the North Tyneside mayoralty from the Tories twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2013
Henry G Manson on an intriguing battle
There has been some discussion this week on the strength of didn’t women MPs in the Conservative Party and in Labour with some wondering if there will be another ‘Margaret’ in the near future. I can’t spot many, although a couple of years ago I wrote this piece asking if one newly elected female MP could be a ‘Thatcher’ to Cameron’s ‘Heath’.
In the meantime it’s worth watching an intriguing local election battle between two strong women who don’t mince their words.
The Conservatives have won 3 out of 4 mayoral elections in North Tyneside. The sitting mayor Conservative Linda Arkley has held the position twice. The 2009 election saw her win by four and half thousand votes winning 45% of first preference votes, to Labour’s 34%.
Despite failing to dislodge popular MP Alan Campbell in Tynemouth constituency, there remains a sizeable Conservative vote in North Tyneside borough. Even when a former mayor had to resign in the most controversial circumstances, the Conservatives won the subsequent mayoral by-election.
This contest is significant for a number of reasons.
The Conservatives aren’t over-endowed with Northern strongholds and winning again in North Tyneside would be a boost to David Cameron and support his efforts to challenge in all parts of the country.
In a rare red-blue fight it should prove a sterner test for Labour than the Liberal Democrats have so far provided in the North. Labour’s candidate is a former headteacher and her campaign has made much of her ability to restore order and discipline in the local council.
Mayor Arkley has tried to emphasise her local cuts aren’t of the scale of nearby Newcastle City Council. There is little love lost between these two women and the contest is simmering away just nicely.
Recently the Mayor was asked to leave a council meeting after a heated exchange of words with other councillors. She has since pulled out of hustings with rival candidates.
It’s understandable that there is attention given to the parliamentary by-election in nearby South Shields. However it is north of the river in North Tyneside where the real battle lay.
It will be more instructive to the strength of the Conservative Party’s remaining northern defences. If Labour wins then it won’t give any indication of its ability to win in the South, but it will deny the blues a very important electoral oasis in the North and cast serious doubt on their attempts to make gains here. Despite the lack of betting markets it is an election worth keep a look out for. Plus whoever wins this will see a strong female local leader who knows her own mind and doesn’t suffer fools. Maggie would be proud.
Henry G Manson
The known unknown in this year’s local elections: Ukip contesting more than 70 percent of the seats
Monday, April 15th, 2013
Ukip could beat the LDs on votes
Each year the Rallings and Thrasher electoral analysis duo from the University of Plymouth set out their predictions for the May local elections. Much of it is based on their assessment of national vote from the local by-elections that we now monitor on PB every week.
This’s year’s “unveiling” was due to take place at a special briefing organised by the Political Studies Association for Wednesday. That has been postponed because of the funeral of Baroness Thatcher so we’ll have to wait a week.
They have made some rough guesses based on applying YouGov polling to their national projection. This will be updated when we get their figures.
This is part of an article that they have written for the Local Government Chronicle:-
“The known unknown in this year’s elections is the performance of UKIP. Nigel Farage’s party has recently made gains in local by-elections, its share in those seats it has contested is up by about 10 percentage points, and since the beginning of 2013 it has regularly outscored the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls. It only contested a quarter of all divisions in 2009 but averaged 16% of the vote in those where it had a presence, boosted no doubt by its European Parliament election profile.
As a party without a clear geographical or social base, the first past the post system works against UKIP and any gains are likely to be numbered in the tens.
It does though have pockets of support in counties like Buckinghamshire, Surrey and West Sussex where it could prove an irritant to the Conservatives. Perhaps more surprisingly it has also polled well at local elections in parts of Lancashire and Staffordshire where it might ease Labour’s task…”
That final point is spot on. Ukip’s impact is not just about them taking seats off the other parties but the impact of them standing will have in so many more places.
All of this makes it hard to predict.
All we need now are some betting markets!
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
Ukip could beat the LDs on votes
Each year the Rallings and Thrasher electoral analysis duo from the University of Plymouth set out their predictions for the May local elections. Much of it is based on their assessment of national vote from the local by-elections that we now monitor on PB every week.
This’s year’s “unveiling” was due to take place at a special briefing organised by the Political Studies Association for Wednesday. That has been postponed because of the funeral of Baroness Thatcher so we’ll have to wait a week.
They have made some rough guesses based on applying YouGov polling to their national projection. This will be updated when we get their figures.
This is part of an article that they have written for the Local Government Chronicle:-
“The known unknown in this year’s elections is the performance of UKIP. Nigel Farage’s party has recently made gains in local by-elections, its share in those seats it has contested is up by about 10 percentage points, and since the beginning of 2013 it has regularly outscored the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls. It only contested a quarter of all divisions in 2009 but averaged 16% of the vote in those where it had a presence, boosted no doubt by its European Parliament election profile.
As a party without a clear geographical or social base, the first past the post system works against UKIP and any gains are likely to be numbered in the tens.
It does though have pockets of support in counties like Buckinghamshire, Surrey and West Sussex where it could prove an irritant to the Conservatives. Perhaps more surprisingly it has also polled well at local elections in parts of Lancashire and Staffordshire where it might ease Labour’s task…”
That final point is spot on. Ukip’s impact is not just about them taking seats off the other parties but the impact of them standing will have in so many more places.
All of this makes it hard to predict.
All we need now are some betting markets!
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
Ukip could be contesting 70 percent of the council seats up for election on May 2
Monday, April 8th, 2013
Back in 2009 the Ukip proportion was about one in five
Over the next couple of days we should see the full nomination list for the council seats that are due to be contested on May 2nd and the big focus is on how many candidates Ukip will manage to field.
For given what’s been happening in recent council by-elections the presence of Ukip on the ballot forms can have a big impact on outcomes.
Given that the Tories are defending twice as many seats as Labour and the LDs combined this could be more problematical for the blues than the other parties.
Back in 2009 the party managed to put up candidates in just over 21% of the seats up. Estimates based on nominations published so far suggest that they’ll at least triple that.
One tally I’ve seen based on more than 700 seats is that Farage’s party will have someone standing in about 70%.
Interestingly there’s been a huge decline in BNP candidates which is down from 24% in 2009 to barely 3% of the seats looked at for next month.
Councils included in this calculation are Cambridgeshire, Dorset, Essex (incomplete), Isle of Wight UA, Leicestershire, North Yorkshire, Northumberland UA, Oxfordshire, Shropshire UA, Staffordshire (incomplete), Suffolk and Surrey.
No doubt we’ll see more data come out during the day.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
Back in 2009 the Ukip proportion was about one in five
Over the next couple of days we should see the full nomination list for the council seats that are due to be contested on May 2nd and the big focus is on how many candidates Ukip will manage to field.
For given what’s been happening in recent council by-elections the presence of Ukip on the ballot forms can have a big impact on outcomes.
Given that the Tories are defending twice as many seats as Labour and the LDs combined this could be more problematical for the blues than the other parties.
-
Back in 2009 the party managed to put up candidates in just over 21% of the seats up. Estimates based on nominations published so far suggest that they’ll at least triple that.
One tally I’ve seen based on more than 700 seats is that Farage’s party will have someone standing in about 70%.
Interestingly there’s been a huge decline in BNP candidates which is down from 24% in 2009 to barely 3% of the seats looked at for next month.
Councils included in this calculation are Cambridgeshire, Dorset, Essex (incomplete), Isle of Wight UA, Leicestershire, North Yorkshire, Northumberland UA, Oxfordshire, Shropshire UA, Staffordshire (incomplete), Suffolk and Surrey.
No doubt we’ll see more data come out during the day.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news