Archive for the 'UK Elections – others' Category

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Comres: European Election poll

Monday, May 27th, 2013


Comres has conducted a poll for Open Europe on the European elections next year, the changes are from the European elections in 2009,

The fieldwork was from the 22nd until the 24th of May, and 2003 adults were surveyed

UKIP will be delighted with this poll, the Tories will be alarmed to be polling at 21% but delighted they’re only 2% behind Labour. The Lib Dems are polling higher than they did in 2009.

The other salient parts (from the Times report)

In a rare boost for the Prime Minister, the survey reveals widespread support for his strategy of reforming Britain’s relationship with Brussels.

Asked to select the best option for the future of Britain’s relationship with Europe, the most popular response reflected Mr Cameron’s stated strategy: 38 per cent approved of repatriating powers from Brussels but remaining in the EU. One in four wanted to withdraw completely.

No more than 61 per cent of UKIP voters said that they wanted Britain to pull out altogether, suggesting that Mr Farage’s party is profiting from discontent on a wide range of issues, rather than on Europe alone. Liberal Democrat and Labour voters also backed Mr Cameron, suggesting that Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg could find themselves out of touch with their supporters if they maintain their opposition to an EU referendum.

Apologies for the brief post, I’m taking the information from a Times article, and there’s very little in this article and there’s not much else on the internet.

I’ll update this thread when more information/the data tables are out.

 

UPDATE I

There was a comres poll in January.

Then the VI for the Euros was

ComRes/People – CON 22%, LAB 35%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 23%, GRN 5%, Others 8%

Which means changes since then are

UKIP +4

Lab -12

Tories -1

LD + 10

Others -2

TSE



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Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

Thursday, May 16th, 2013

Harry Hayfield’s guide to the action

Coker on Somerset (Deferred Election)
Last Council Election (2013): Con 28, Lib Dem 18, Lab 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2 (Conservative majority of 2)
Last Ward Election (2009): Lib Dem 1,454 (45%) Con 1,365 (43%) Green 249 (8%) Ind 131 (4%)
Last Ward Election (2009 Notional): Lib Dem 1,687 (46%) Con 1,559 (43%) Green 271 (7%) Ind 151 (4%)

Somerset has always been a Conservative / Liberal Democrat battleground going back as far as 1989. In those elections the Lib Dems (or to give them their proper title the Social and Liberal Democrats) only managed to win 379 council seats and were the largest parties on Gloucestershire and Cornwall councils. In Somerset they were in second place in 1989 but with the Conservatives having an overall majority of 5 there was very little they could do (as was demonstrated at the 1992 general election when Somerset elected just one Liberal Democrat MP in the form of the Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown). However, just twelve months later, the effect of the United Kingdom being thrown out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism on the popularity of the Conservative party was demonstrated when the Conservatives lost eighteen seats across the county with the Liberal Democrats making twenty one gains and with that gaining overall control of the council. They held onto the council in 1997 (held at the same time as the general election when the county of Somerset elected three Liberal Democrats and made Wells and Bridgwater into Conservative marginals). By the 2001 elections (when Taunton was regained by the Conservatives at the general) the Liberal Democrats lost control of the county only to regain it in 2005 (as Taunton flipped to the Liberal Democrats again). However in 2009, the Conservatives sought (and got) revenge for their 1993 defeat by inflicting nine losses on the Liberal Democrats and gaining overall control and making confident predictions that Somerset would elect at least four Conservative MP’s. You can imagine their disappointment then when at the 2010 general election, it was the Liberal Democrats who won four seats in Somerset after gaining Wells from the Conservatives (helped in no small way by a duck house). And with UKIP making their presence felt at the county elections earlier this month, Somerset could now be called a three party battleground (Con, Lib Dem and UKIP) and following those results Coker has the potential to do anything it likes!

Melcombe Regis on Weymouth and Portland (Con Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Con 14, Lab 11, Lib Dem 8, Ind 3 (No Overall Control, Con short by 5)

Local Elections 2010 – 2012

Election Year

2010

2011

2012

Party

Votes

% Share

Votes

% Share

Votes

% Share

Conservatives

938

36%

592

35%

431

33%

Labour

365

21%

239

19%

Liberal Democrats

1,083

42%

748

44%

375

29%

Independents

568

22%

Green Party

243

19%

Weymouth and Portland (named after the seaside town and the local stone) is one of those rare things, a southern council that operates the third rule. As a result we can see how the parties have done going back to the 2003 local elections and those elections were, to be honest, not all that bad for Labour. Yes, the council was hung but Labour had the largest grouping (Lab 13, Lib Dem 11, Con 6, Ind 5) and at those elections was one of only nine southern councils to have Labour as the largest party on the council. So the fact that the following year they made four losses to the Lib Dems three gains was quite galling. As the third Labour term carried on so Labour became more and more unpopular sinking to a low of just four councillors in 2008 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats battling it out for the lead. Since 2010 though, Labour have been recovering and are no doubt planning on becoming the largest party on the council at next year’s local elections, but just as we saw in Somerset UKIP cannot be ruled out of springing more surprises.

Rawmarsh on Rotherham (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Lab 58, Con 4, Ind 1 (Labour majority of 53)

Local Elections 2010 – 2012

Election Year

2010

2011

2012

Party

Votes

% Share

Votes

% Share

Votes

% Share

Conservatives

772

15%

446

15%

328

13%

Labour

2,656

51%

1,911

61%

1,685

66%

UKIP

721

14%

470

15%

BNP

744

14%

327

10%

531

21%

Green Party

292

6%

As was demonstrated in the Rotherham parliamentary by-election, when you have a virtual one party state then people will look for alternative means to protest (which might explain why the BNP polled 8%, Respect 8% and the English Democrats 3%, so therefore I think it’s safe to say that Labour HOLD with some party that only a few people have heard of coming second.



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The revolt of the Shires: Cameron’s last warning

Saturday, May 4th, 2013

But should UKIP have done even better?

Thursday’s elections represented a resounding raspberry to all three main parties.  Indeed, they reinforced that even talking of three main parties is an anachronism.  The Lib Dems did win more than twice as many councillors as UKIP but in all other respects they finished well behind.  In the South Shields by-election, UKIP scored another second place (their fourth in the last five mainland contests) and in the local elections, Nigel Farage’s party came within 6% of winning the national equivalent vote.

Next year, in their natural home of the European elections, it would be a surprise if they don’t top the poll.  England is now a four-party system, though the reality is that there are few four-party areas as UKIP consistently displace one or two of the other parties where they were already weak.

     As this year proved, they’re more than capable of taking support directly from all the other three: disillusioned right-wing ex-Tories, WWC socially conservative former Labour voters and ex-Lib Dems who voted against parties of govenrment.

That goes a long way to explain Labour’s poor performance yesterday.  As the only of the three established parties in opposition, Miliband should be making hay at this point yet Labour only did as well as in 2005 which was, admittedly, a general election Labour won but not by much and governments tend to recover as elections approach.  UKIP went a long way to syphon off the sort of support that Labour would normally have won.

Similarly, while the Lib Dems may take some comfort from the fact that their vote dropped most where it doesn’t matter – potentially saving more MPs than the vote share would imply – that fact also emphasises the extent to which they’re no longer a national party but a federation of local areas of independent strength.  The prospect of several hundred lost deposits can’t be taken too lightly either and nor can the continued haemorrhaging of their council base.

However, it’s Cameron of the three party leaders who has most to be concerned about.  True, finishing within 4% of Labour in national equivalent share was more than reasonable, as was the retention of so many councils but neither achievement should distract from the extent to which the Conservatives are becoming divorced from the values of the sort of voters that Margaret Thatcher and John Major won to give them their four election victories. 

    What should really hit home is that these elections were in the Tory heartlands: the message of discontent from the doorsteps will resonate up through concerned councillors, MPs and members of the voluntary party.

Whether he can do much about it is another matter.  He, like Clegg, is prevented by the constraints of the coalition from directly addressing the concerns other than through pledges for the future – though the suspicion is increasingly that not all that many would be met even were he in a position to do so.  Ironically, it’s the detoxification strategy which has done most to toxify the Cameron Tories with the Thatcher Conservatives.

Not that it’s likely that anyone else could do much better.  Even were there an alternative Tory leader in parliament who could reach those voters who’ve turned to UKIP, quite how he – or she – could do that while simultaneously preventing the Lib Dems from breaking into open rebellion is difficult to see.  The one Tory who has proven highly successful in putting that kind of coalition together on a large scale – not least by not being afraid of his human frailties or the odd gaffe – is out of the Westminster game for now.

And what of UKIP?  This has been an extremely successful week; one of their best ever up along with beating Labour in the 2009 European elections or nearly winning Eastleigh.  Yet it perhaps could have been better still.

      The two biggest individual prizes up for grabs were the mayoralities in Doncaster and North Tyneside.  UKIP didn’t nominate a candidate in either. 

Quite why not is a mystery.  Did they think they’d perform embarrassingly badly?  Were they concerned that they might actually win and be lumped with a high-profile liability?  Was Farage worried about what someone with such a democratic mandate might mean for his own leadership?

Who knows.  Whatever the true reason, the fact remains that UKIP passed the opportunities up.  North Tyneside might always have been out of reach without the right candidate; mayoral elections being at least as much about the candidate as the party.  Doncaster however may have been another matter.  UKIP is one of Peter Davies’ former parties and both could have benefitted from the support of the other.  I have no idea whether such an arrangement was possible but on the face of it there’s little reason why it shouldn’t have been.  If so, UKIP could probably have crowned a day of local election breakthrough with a sizable victory in Ed Miliband’s backyard.

The local elections 2013 are not necessarily a turning point in British politics.  Like the Greens in 1989, their success has come as much because of what the other parties aren’t as because of what they are.  UKIP will continue to perform well in European elections while the British electorate remain uneasy about the UK’s relationship with the EU.  Their continued success in domestic elections depends mostly on whether the other parties can address the contempt in which they’re held by UKIP voters.  If not, the 2015 election will probably be one of the most historic in the country’s history.  If so, victory awaits the party that can.

David Herdson



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The results continue to roll in

Friday, May 3rd, 2013



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The 2013 locals so far: the John Curtice verdict

Friday, May 3rd, 2013

Curtice on Ukip

The story so far

The LD performance in South Shields

Tories reduced to 17.9% in Eastleigh



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My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields

Thursday, May 2nd, 2013

May 2nd 2013: The day could be a turning point in British politics

Talking with party activists of all colours last night whose judgement I respect I believe that Ukip are set to do better in today’s local elections than the predictions.

Remember that in local by-elections in principal authorities that UKip have chalked up three gains from the Tories since the start of March. This followed a period of two years when they made no by-election gains at all.

This suggests a real momentum and a growing activist base that is charged up.

In today’s other big election in South Shields I’ve got a 6/1 bet that their Westminster by-election share could be in the 30-40% range which might just come off. My other punts at evens that they’ll beat the Tories for second place look like bankers and these are covering bets of 25/1 of victory in the by-election.

    One thing that’s clear is that the purples are doing particularly well with working class voters – the national polling points to serious inroads with the C2DE’s of which there are many in South Shields.

Unlike Eastleigh where there were five published polls there have been no surveys in David Miliband’s old seat. But the large moves in the national polls and that lone ComRes locals survey point to a big outcome which I define as being their biggest by-election vote share ever.

So what are your predictions? Record them in the thread below.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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The politics of Wind farms: Even CON voters are more in favour than against

Wednesday, May 1st, 2013

But Ukip voters express the most opposition

The findings above are from a new ComRes online poll commissioned by RenewableUK, the trade body for the wind industry.

One question, featured above, was on whether voters would be more or less inclined to vote for candidates who were in favour of wind power. CON voters by, admittedly, a small margin said here would be more likely to vote for such a contender.

Ukip voters were the only ones out of line with the general consensus which suggests that the Tories will probably harden their position even though, in his early days as leader, Mr. Cameron was a strong supporter.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying they are certain to vote with a MALE:FEMALE ratio of 6:4

Wednesday, May 1st, 2013

Note the other methodology qualifications

On a night of many polls perhaps the most interesting and relevant to tomorrow’s local elections is the above one from ComRes online which was funded by the Coalition for Marriage – the body that’s been campaigning against the gay marriage proposals.

Because of the geographical specifics and likely low turnout this has been a very challenging survey for the pollster to carry out and there are some important qualifications.

  • Unlike normal ComRes voting intention polls this has not been past vote weighted and the demographic weightings that have been applied are for the GB as a whole not the specific numbers from the local authority areas up for election tomorrow.
  • ComRes has just included those saying they are 10/10 certain to vote. That was 56% of the sample
  • The gender split of those saying they were certain to vote was 6:4 Male:Female.
    1. It is highly unlikely that turnout tomorrow will be anywhere near 56%.

      There is a very sharp division between men and women in the poll which is why I’ve added the gender tabs so you can see for yourself.

    Remember, as well, is that the bulk of seats up tomorrow are in what has traditionally been strong CON territory. Thus even on the same day as Blair’s 1997 landslide many of these council remained in Tory hands.

    There’s also a Populus poll of the over-50s which was commissioned by Saga and the sample was confined to its customers. I’m trying to establish the basis of the weightings because I doubt very much whether the Saga customer profile matches the country as a whole.

    There’s also the first Survation full national Westminster voting intention poll since January and today’s YouGov.

    Mike Smithson

    For the latest polling and political betting news