Tomorrow it will be exactly 6 months since @nadinedorriesmp was suspended as a CON MP. Farage is making overtures. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2013

It’s starting to appear “nasty” that the whip has not been restored to @nadinedorriesmp .

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 4, 2013

It’s time to “Free the Mid-Bedfordshire One”

In 2008 the county council in Bedfordshire was abolished so it wasn’t one of the traditional shire counties where there was voting last Thursday.

If there had been elections I’ve little doubt that it would have followed the pattern of elsewhere in eastern England with Ukip making big inroads – particularly in the area covered by the Mid-Bedfordshire parliamentary constituency which, of course, is represented at Westminster by Nadine Dorries.

Exactly six months ago today Nadine was suspended from the parliamentary Conservative party for her much publicised trip to Australia to take part in the TV programme – “I’m a celebrity get me out of here.”

That suspension is still in force and speculation has been revived about her switching to Ukip. Farage was quoted yesterday welcoming such a move which, if it happened now, would add to the ongoing positive narrative about the party.

Over the weekend senior party figures like Lord Ashcroft, David Davis and the editor of ConHome , Paul Goodman, have joined the clamour for Nadine’s punishment to be lifted.

Davis bitingly contrasted Nadine’s treatment with old-Etonian, Jesse Norman, who rebelled and then got promoted. Nadine, brought up on a Merseyside council estate, is still being hung out to dry.

If Nadine did join the purples she could do immense damage to the Tories. She’s a fierce critic of Cameron and being UKIP’s one MP would provide a platform for ongoing attacks on the PM.

Her constituency is just five minutes from where I live and I know it well. My reading is that she’d have a good chance of holding it for UKIP against an official Conservative candidate at the general election.

This has betting implications. There was an active market on whether she’d switch before the election and, of course, it impacts on how many, if any, MPs Ukip would have.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

RT @rufusjones1: Margaret Thatcher’s Yeast Extract. twitter.com/rufusjones1/st…

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) April 12, 2013

Henry G Manson on the Mrs. Thatcher aftermath

One of the Conservative Party’s secret weapons to winning more votes in the North of England is a young man called David Skelton. Skelton is from the North East and has an impeccable feel for the North in a way few Conservative strategists do. This was demonstrated in an article for Labour List last year explaining why Ed Miliband was right to speak at the Durham Miners’ Gala, while he was being attacked by the Tory frontbench for doing so. He argued:

‘Politicians like talking about community. I doubt that they will find many better examples of communities pulling together in celebration of their communities and in memory of some of the most severe adversity than the pit villages of the North East of England. Politicians like talking about re-engaging with ordinary people but it is the sad truth that the Miners’ Gala too often represents people who have been ignored and taken for granted by all parties for too long.’

This coming from a Deputy Director of the right wing Policy Exchange group came as more of a surprise at the time. It was a sign that someone was prepared to shake their party by the lapels and remind them of some of the things they had to do differently to have a chance of winning back support in the North. And it was genuine.

It was therefore with some nervous trepidation for this Labour supporter to hear that Skelton is getting to get the time and resources to work precisely on this in the years ahead. Two weeks ago Skelton explained to Conservative Home:

‘The Conservatives haven’t won an election for 21 years and this overwhelming perception that they are “the party of the rich” is an important, some might say the most important, reason why. Whole urban centres outside of the South of England now have no Tory representation whatsoever and the Conservatives are struggling amongst working class voters, ethnic minorities and women. Conservatives hold only 20 of the 124 urban seats in the North and Midlands – that’s a mere 16 per cent. And it’s these areas that will be the big battleground at the next election.. If the Tories don’t face up to this challenge and broaden their appeal, they will face the prospect of never being able to have a sustainable period of majority government again.’

The following week saw the death of Lady Thatcher. The former Conservative leader had not been discussed and debated on TV to this extent for many, many years. I know that many in the younger generation don’t know much about Margaret Thatcher and the media are understandably going to focus more on her positives in the immediate following of her passing. But for many over 50s in the North of England, Midlands, Scotland and Wales the experiences were not good. For many our towns, cities and former coalfield areas felt like the victim of an occupying force. My prediction is that the memories evoked by Lady Thatcher’s death will make David Skelton and the Conservative Party’s work that bit harder.

Henry G Manson

Even over her funeral Mrs. Thatcher continues to divide the nation. See pie chart from Survation/Mirror poll. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 11, 2013

If this polling is right Dave might have misread the public mood

According to newspaper reports this morning there’s been a huge row between Number 10 and the speaker, John Bercow, over Mrs. Thatcher. Bercow didn’t want the recall of parliament or the changing of the parliamentary time-table for next Wednesday – the day of the funeral.

In yesterday’s tribute debate Bercow quashed complaints about the manner of some of the anti-Maggie voices, particuarly after the speech by the mum of Dan Hodges, Glenda Jackson.

Yet it’s hard to see how Dave could do it in any other way. The right in his party is deeply suspicious of him in any case and it would have been a big political risk if he’d pushed for anything less than what is happening.

The response to another Survation question on the cost of the whole thing is also interesting.

“The Thatcher family, rather than the taxpayer, should pay the bulk of the estimated £10million cost for Margaret Thatcher’s ceremonial funeral”
All responders: Agree 57% Disagree 22% Neither 17% DK 5%

Let’s see what Friday and the weekend bring.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

I was only twelve when Lady Thatcher was replaced as Tory Leader and Prime Minister, I remember my mother being particularly happy at the news.

Growing up in 1980s South Yorkshire, I was used to hearing abusive things said about Margaret Thatcher, particularly in the aftermath of the miners’ strike.

But as some of you may have guessed, those things didn’t have a lasting effect on me or my views on Lady Thatcher.

She set the benchmark that future Leaders and Prime Ministers are judged by, just think, every time a politician commits a u-turn, the Lady’s not for turning clip gets played, and PMs and Leaders are compared to that.

A few years ago, I heard William Hague speak, where he said, and I paraphrase, Margaret Thatcher’s achievement was that she not only changed her party, she changed the Labour Party, and arguably caused the creation of the SDP, not many politicians have had such a change on British politics.

As Tony Blair put it

Very few leaders get to change not only the political landscape of their country but of the world. Margaret was such a leader. Her global impact was vast. And some of the changes she made in Britain were, in certain respects at least, retained by the 1997 Labour government, and came to be implemented by governments around the world.

We (and I’m sure others here and elsewhere will) can spend time arguing on whether she was a force for good or bad for the country, but what is inarguable, she changed the country, and not just this country, her influence for good or ill, had effects on lives of Argentinians, South Africans and Eastern Europeans through her opposition to Communism and the signing of The Single European Act.

Would UKIP be doing  so well today (or even exist) if she hadn’t signed the Single European Act (something she later reportedly regretted)

Would Scotland be having a referendum on Independence in 2014 if her government hadn’t tested the Community Charge/Poll Tax on Scotland in 1989?

Would Kuwait still be occupied by Iraq? She was visiting the first President Bush when Iraq invaded Kuwait and urged him to remove Saddam from Kuwait, and later telling President Bush “This is no time to go wobbly, George”

She is also proof that  past electoral success is no protection from the ruthlessness that the Tory party displays when they conclude their leader is harmful to their electoral chances.

Even the manner of her departure still has ramifications for the Conservative Party. Europe is the fault line on which the Conservative which periodically tears itself apart over, in the 1997 Conservative Leadership election, when it looked like Ken Clarke was about to win the Leadership, Lady Thatcher intervened and campaigned very publicly for William Hague.

In an era of SPADS and political families, She was the grocer’s daughter from Grantham who had a career before politics, I suspect we will not see someone like her again, which may sadden some, and bring joy to others.

TSE

Great Boris Private Eye cover that’ll become a classic if ever he does become CONleader/PM.via @hendopolis twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2013

Remember how Ken ran him so close?

Just before the Easter weekend we reported on a new YouGov poll that had a Boris-led Tory party level pegging with an EdM LAB one when the named leader voting intention question was put.

This caused something of a stir and was in line with similar polling at the time of the Olympics. There’s little doubt that substituting the Boris name for Dave does give a boost to Tory ratings.

What we should also ask is how serious such findings are and a wider one relating to polling about Boris when tested against real results.

For six pollsters carried out voting surveys ahead of the May 2012 mayoral election and the final survey of every single one of them over-stated Boris’s eventual winning margin.

In the election Boris beat Ken by 3.06% when second preferences were allocated. This compared with (see UKPR here) Opinium +4%, YouGov +6%, TNS-BMRB +6%, ComRes +8%, Survation +10% and Populus +12%.

On the night, as no doubt many will recall, the big surprise was that Ken, with all the issues surrounding his campaign, had run Boris so close.

It appeared that the race had closed in the final days.

The lesson I take from this is to be more wary of named leader polling when it relates to Johnson.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Paul Goodman & Mike Smithson slug it out on Twitter

The @paulgoodmanch call for the Tories to end coalition in Sept 2014. goo.gl/1X8bz twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 3, 2013

@msmithsonpb Suppose neither of us will be around to see the play in 2053 – about the shambles of the Coalition’s last 6 months…

— Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) April 3, 2013

@msmithsonpb In both party’s interests to end Coalition before April 2015 – and not in Miliband’s to accept a poisoned chalice.

— Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) April 3, 2013

The Tories have launched a Twitter poster campaign using 6 Budget plans.Not sure that Aspiration Nation quite works twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2013

Another of the Tory Twitter posters based on a Budget proposal -this on the help for new home buyers twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 21, 2013

Will George’s budget be a narrative changer?

Featured above are 2 of 6 Tory Twitter ads that have been issued overnight.

This is quite an interesting way of using social media and, no doubt, the party hopes that these will get Tweeted and re-Tweeted.

The themes chosen are all the good ones and I have selected the new house building support as well as the tax changes which meet the Lib Dem GE2010 manifesto commitment to raise the basic threshold for paying tax to above £10,000.

I like the emphasis on the positive but I find that the “Aspiration Nation” concept doesn’t quite resonate. Maybe if its repeated often enough it will sink in.

What is becoming clear is that an extraordinary amount of planning has gone into this year’s budget. The hope is very much that the corner can be turned with the budget creating a different narrative.

You are also going to see the spectacle of both coalition partners speaking strongly in favour of the budget plans.

The polls over the next two weeks are going be very interesting.

Mike Smithson

Theresa May in the Commons twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 15, 2013

Hello all: I hate the new Disqus as much as you do. I will be actively looking for a new alternative. Please bear with us until we find one. Thanks, Robert

Has Theresa May forgotten her pledges to the disabled?

Theresa May has been burnishing her right wing credentials in recent weeks. Predictably the right wing press has lapped up promises to withdraw from the Human Rights Act, ‘sack Euro judges’ and allow schools to make profits. But are her promises worth the paper they’re written on? That’s what disabled campaigners such as Sue Marsh http://diaryofabenefitscrounger.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/the-smoking-gun-that-shows-tories-lied.html are starting to ask.

Before the last general election the Conservative Party produced a document called A Contract for Equalities. It is an official document, still available on the party website and has a forward from Theresa May which committed to a wide range of measures including ‘consider the case for changing the law to allow civil partnerships to be called and classified as marriage’ – something unhappy Conservative activists appear not to have noticed at the time. In it is a section devoted to ‘Action for the Disabled’. It makes a number of pledges that have not been met. The commitments seem clear:

“Central to our plans is a clear distinction between people who can’t work and those who can. Of course, there are some people who due the nature of their disability or illness will not be able to work. These people who cannot work because of a disability or illness should never be forced to work.”

Instead 40% of people who appeal against the ATOS the government’s assessor for incapacity support are successful. MPs are inundated with horror stories from disabled people at their wits end over the assessments, a quarter of which aren’t event accessible by wheelchair. While Theresa May and the Conservatives pledged not to force people who can work to do so, people just days out of intensive care are being told to seek work or lose their benefits.

The document continues, “We are very much focused on helping all who are capable of work, not just those who are nearest to the job market.” Instead evidence suggests the government’s providers are doing precisely that.

We learn that “a Conservative government will tackle the stigma and prejudice that still persists towards disabled people, particularly those with mental ill-health.”

Perhaps most disturbing revelation from the evidence is that the Department for Work and Pensions appears to have drip-fed distorted statistics to the Mail and Express to whip up hostility to people in receipt of disability support.

A key task for any political leader is to hold onto their promises. Clegg has suffered political damage from his failure to uphold flagship pre-election pledges. Cameron has been at pains to keep his support for pensioner bus passes. However the Conservatives appear to have fallen well short on their pre-election commitments to disabled people of all ages. Letting down disabled people doesn’t reflect well on the Tories and Theresa May could do worse than re-read the document the next time she wants to make a ‘wide-ranging’ intervention. The Home Secretary would be wise to uphold past promises she put her name to before making new pledges to court the right wing press that she may believe will aid her advancement. If that means taking on Iain Duncan Smith and the private sector providers now then let’s see it.

Ten years ago Theresa May warned that her party was seen as the ‘nasty party’. Well it doesn’t look too nice right now.

Henry G Manson