Archive for the 'Scotland' Category

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More gloom for Scottish LAB from YouGov – but not quite as bad as Ipsos-MORI

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Whilst the SNP lead and share of the vote isn’t as impressive as the Ipsos-Mori figures, they will still be delighted with these figures and Labour should continue to be worried.

All of this confirms that predicting the 2015 General Election will be the most difficult for a generation.

What we really need to see is the Lord Ashcroft polling on Lab held seats in Scotland.

If they confirm what Ipsos-Mori and YouGov are showing then I’m not sure what Labour can do stop the tide, especially given Ed’s poor ratings in Scotland, but the fieldwork dates were unfavourable for Labour due to the aftermath of Johann Lamont’s resignation.

But as Lord Ashcroft keeps on reminding us, opinion polls are snapshots.

TSE

UPDATE

The news from the rest of the country isn’t good for Ed and Labour either this evening



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Alex Salmond fighting a Westminster seat that voted overwhelmingly NO would be a huge gamble

Wednesday, October 29th, 2014

You could see this as an attack line?
You voted NO – now tell him you mean it”?

Salmond in debate (1)

It’s been reported widely that the outgoing SNP leader and Scottish First Minister, Alex Salmond, is thinking about seeking a Westminster seat to fight at GE15. This would mean a return to the Commons.

The one he’s said to have his eye is Gordon in Aberdeenshire where the sitting Lib Dem MP, Malcolm Bruce, is standing down. Generally the Lib Dems are most vulnerable in such situations.

But would this be the shoo-in for Salmond that it appears. Surprisingly Ladbrokes only rate the SNP’s chances there at 8/13 with the LDs on 5/2.

    The relevant fact about the Gordon constituency is that in the IndyRef Gordon it voted by nearly two to one against independence – hardly good territory, you would think, for the NATs

Life is almost always hard for ex-leaders. They don’t have the pulling power that they enjoyed while in the top job and in his case Salmond is vulnerable because on his watch the referendum went the wrong way. He failed in the biggest project of his political career.

On the face of it Salmond would be better deployed fighting a current LAB seat where the vote was for YES on September 18th.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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LAB heavyweight Jim Murphy becomes the 2-5 favourite to be next Scottish LAB leader

Sunday, October 26th, 2014

There are 41 Scottish LAB seats at stake

The key fact to remember when discussing the impact of Scotland on UK politics is that there are 59 seats north of the border of which LAB hold 41. So anything that could weaken the party in the eyes of Scottish voters could have a big impact on GE15. Any LAB losses in Scotland would have to be made up from extra LAB gains in England and Wales if EdM’s hope of securing a majority is to be fulfilled.

Jim Murphy, who at one stage was both defence and Scottish secretaries in the last LAB government, played a key part in the IndyRef campaign with his 100 towns in 100 days tours putting the case for NO. He faced some nasty confrontations with YES campaigners and came out of the referendum with his reputation enhanced.

For some time he’s been one my long-shots bets, at 33/1, for EdM’s successor and would easily be a match for the SNP’s new flag carrier, Nicola Sturgeon. He’s articulate, tough, and like Sturgeon is from Glasgow.

    A lot has been written in recent weeks about the SNP threat to LAB. The big problem Sturgeon’s party has is there there are few seats where at GE10 her party was in striking distance.

The following chart shows every single Scots LAB seat ranked in majority order with those where the SNP is in second place highlighted. The numbers speak for themselves. Labour Scottish heartlands look like tough nuts to crack.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The first four results are in – It is looking for great for No

Friday, September 19th, 2014

TSE



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The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breaking turnout.

Friday, September 19th, 2014

Though Dundee’s figure was a surprise


 

No results have been declared yet but earlier on this evening, Peter Kellner of YouGov said he was 99% certain of a No victory.

TSE

UPDATE – THE FIRST RESULT IS IN



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The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

Like the Ipsos-Mori, there’s a small swing to No, as the Betfair price on Yes hits 14.5

The YouGov poll isn’t an exit poll, but I post it here for the sake of completeness. Nearly 2,000 Scots were contacted by YouGov after they had been to the polling stations.

So the polling and the bookies makes for great reading for Unionists, but as ever, we need to wait for the votes to be counted.

Here are the expected declaration times.

TSE



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Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls in the privacy of the polling booth?

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

It was in Quebec in Oct 1995 when the separatists lost



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Ipsos-Mori becomes the latest pollster to show the indyref being too close to call

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

The changes are since the last Ipsos-Mori poll which was conducted at the start of August, it was before any of the debates, so it is coming into line with the other pollsters, given their track record at the 2011 Holyrood election, it will cause great alarm at Better Together, this is a phone poll, and also has the same lead the ICM phone had last week.

As far as I know, there’s just one more indyref poll out tonight, and that’s the YouGov for The Times and The Sun.

Looking at the below graph, here’s what the latest poll, note, the YouGov figure in this from last week’s poll, we can see how close it is. Where it says (o) that is that firm’s online poll, and where it says (p) that is that firm’s phone poll.

So who does this overall closeness in the polling favour? My head says, given the various leads across the pollsters No have with the older generation, that will see No win, my heart says, the Yes GOTV will see Yes win.

TSE

Don’t forget to enter PB’s indyref prediction competition, where the winner gets £50 in free bets courtesy of Ladbrokes, closing time for entries is 8am BST on Thursday.