Archive for the 'Scotland' Category

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The first four results are in – It is looking for great for No

Friday, September 19th, 2014

TSE



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The early turnout figures shows it will be a record breaking turnout.

Friday, September 19th, 2014

Though Dundee’s figure was a surprise


 

No results have been declared yet but earlier on this evening, Peter Kellner of YouGov said he was 99% certain of a No victory.

TSE

UPDATE – THE FIRST RESULT IS IN



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The indyref results thread – As YouGov have a poll out

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

Like the Ipsos-Mori, there’s a small swing to No, as the Betfair price on Yes hits 14.5

The YouGov poll isn’t an exit poll, but I post it here for the sake of completeness. Nearly 2,000 Scots were contacted by YouGov after they had been to the polling stations.

So the polling and the bookies makes for great reading for Unionists, but as ever, we need to wait for the votes to be counted.

Here are the expected declaration times.

TSE



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Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls in the privacy of the polling booth?

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

It was in Quebec in Oct 1995 when the separatists lost



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Ipsos-Mori becomes the latest pollster to show the indyref being too close to call

Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

The changes are since the last Ipsos-Mori poll which was conducted at the start of August, it was before any of the debates, so it is coming into line with the other pollsters, given their track record at the 2011 Holyrood election, it will cause great alarm at Better Together, this is a phone poll, and also has the same lead the ICM phone had last week.

As far as I know, there’s just one more indyref poll out tonight, and that’s the YouGov for The Times and The Sun.

Looking at the below graph, here’s what the latest poll, note, the YouGov figure in this from last week’s poll, we can see how close it is. Where it says (o) that is that firm’s online poll, and where it says (p) that is that firm’s phone poll.

So who does this overall closeness in the polling favour? My head says, given the various leads across the pollsters No have with the older generation, that will see No win, my heart says, the Yes GOTV will see Yes win.

TSE

Don’t forget to enter PB’s indyref prediction competition, where the winner gets £50 in free bets courtesy of Ladbrokes, closing time for entries is 8am BST on Thursday.



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ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

Tuesday, September 16th, 2014

Big news is that all 3 polls have same figures YES 48 NO 52

2040 First poll will be ICM for the Scotsman at 2100. Then Opinium for Telegraph 2115. Finally Survation for Mail at 2230

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble



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Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

Tuesday, September 16th, 2014

It was by far the top pollster at the 2011 Holyrood elections

There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow. The online firms that use polling panels – YouGov, Panelbase and Opinium, Survation which does online and phone, and an Ipsos-MORI phone poll.

It is that last one I’m most looking forward to because of its record in Scotland last time out – the Holyrood elections of 2011. We haven’t seen anything from the firm on the IndyRef since the night of the first debate at the start of August. Then it had YES 40/NO 54/ DK 7. Clearly a lot has happened in the intervening period.

It’s worth recalling, as in the chart above, that at the 2011 Scottish Holyrood elections Ipsos-MORI had a remarkably accurate final poll with the SNP, LAB and LD shares right to within one percent.

I decided not to embarrass the other pollsters by highlighting their record on that day in the chart. They performed poorly in comparison.

Whether past performance in that election proves to be a good guide we’ll have to wait until Friday. But the Ipsos-MORI survey from three years ago adds a lot to my confidence.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

Monday, September 15th, 2014

justyouwait (1)

A new poll of Canadians by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies has just come out and finds Scottish IndyRef YES is supported by 32% to 29%.

Interestingly amongst those sampled who are from Quebec the split was 44% YES to 24% NO.

The independence referendum that took place in the Province in October 1995 is is the closest comparison to Thursday’s big election in Scotland.

Back then YES went into polling day with a lead but voters in the Province rejected the move by a fraction of 1%. Interestingly the demographic splits that we are seeing in Scotland at the moment – women and the old being the most opposed to change, happened in Quebec.

  • If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.
  • Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble