Nice infographic from Ipsos-MORI for today’s Scotland poll which has NO 28% ahead. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2013

Now just 23% of Scotland’s women back the plan

Ipsos-MORI chart showing how different Scottish subgroups responded to the #indyref question twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2013

Salmond’s deputy tops the Scottish leader ratings

Alex Salmond once again being out done by his deputy in the latest Ipsos-MORI Scottish leader ratings twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 9, 2013

According to the Indy the Scottish Sun will remain neutral in next year’s #IndyRef.goo.gl/SiAfA twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2013

A blow for Alex Salmond?

According to a report in the Independent this morning Scotland’s biggest-selling newspaper, the Murdoch-owned, Scottish Sun, will remain neutral in the September 2014 independence referendum.

In a piece recalling Rupert Murdoch’s Tweet last year about Salmons being the “most brilliant politician in the UK” James Cusick sets out the latest developments:-

“..In a significant blow to Alex Salmond’s attempt to close the gap on the current substantial pro-Union lead, senior management sources inside News International in both London and Glasgow told The Independent that The Scottish Sun, which backed Mr Salmond in his landslide victory at the 2011 Holyrood election, is not looking to back the SNP ahead of the 18 September vote next year.

The decision effectively draws a line under a four-year charm offensive by Mr Murdoch towards Scotland’s First Minister and ends a friendly and unlikely alliance between the global media mogul and the pugnacious ringmaster of Scottish politics. The SNP’s failure to continue being supported by the Sun, which sells around 300,000 copies north of the border, will force a rethink of the “Yes” campaign’s strategy..”

It is always said that Murdoch likes to back winners and the current polling suggests that the YES camp has a struggle on its hands.

Punters make NO a strong odds-on favourite. The best you can get is 2/7.

Mike Smithson

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Latest Scottish referendum poll for S Times has huge gender divide. YES 7% ahead with men but 27% behind with women. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2013

The Sept 2014 referendum: The testosterone factor

With just 18 months to go before the Scottish referendum there’s a new poll from Panelbase in the Sunday Times. Overall the split is 36% YES to 46^% NO. The balance of those sampled have not made up their minds.

The poll used the actual question that has now been approved by the Electoral Commission

The big split, as shown in the chart, is between men and women with the former now showing a small lead in favour of leaving the UK. With women it is a totally different picture.

Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University is quoted as saying:-

“..Women are less likely to say they feel confident about independence. Saying I want to stand on my own two feet, why do we need the English has potentially something of a macho tone to it.

Testosterone makes a difference here. Men are more willing to be a little gung ho. In so far as independence is a bit of a leap in the dark, they are more willing to take it.”

As with other polls the older Scottish voters are the less likely they want to back the move.

In the betting the best you can get on NO is 2/7 with Ladbrokes. The best on YES is 3/1 with Corals.

Mike Smithson

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The above table shows the net leadership ratings from Ipsos-Mori Scotland polling series in the last year, and the change therein.

As we can see there has been a cross-over between Alex Salmond and Johann Lamont, if you subscribe to the belief that in this stage of the electoral stage that Leadership ratings are a better indicator of future voting intention than VI, then Scottish Labour will be delighted, especially for those of who can recall the chasm in the leadership ratings between Alex Salmond and Iain  Gray in the run up the Scottish Parliament elections in 2011.

However, when you look at the current voting intention for Holyrood, Labour must be very disappointed.

SNP 43% (+3)

Labour 35% (-)

Conservatives 13% (-)

Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)

Others 2% (-2).

To put Alex Salmond’s leadership ratings into context, the below table is the GB wide leadership ratings of the three major party leaders, not one of whom has a positive score (figures from the Ipsos-Mori Political Monitor)

Back in December 2011, Salmond’s net rating was plus 35%.

Now some people may interpret the change from then to today, as evidence that the First Minister’s talents are on the wane.

2012 was a difficult year for the SNP and the Independence movement.

There was an de-facto three month pro-Union campaign via the Jubilee celebrations and the Olympics, and the problems over the legal advice about an Independent Scotland’s membership of the EU.

I prefer to be more charitable on the talents of the First Minister, and say it is a testament to his political skills and nous that he manages to maintain a positive rating, considering he has been First Minister for nearly six years, and it is nearly twenty-three years since he first became Leader of the SNP.

2014 will be a great year to be a Scot, as Scotland hosts the Commonwealth Games and Ryder Cup, events where the First Minister will play a central role, in the same way Boris Johnson did during the Olympics, and there will also be the Seven Hundredth Anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn.

Perhaps these events will serve the Independence movement in a positive way.

Anyone thinking the Scottish Independence result is a foregone conclusion, would be wise to remember, that with ICM in May 2010, 56% planned to vote for AV in the upcoming referendum, and we know how that turned out.

TSE

The Nationalists Strike Back

Ipsos-Mori have polled for the Times on Scottish Independence, the changes are from their last poll in October.

The poll, which asked the same question as the one now certain to be on the referendum ballot paper next year — Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 34% (+4)

No 55% (-3)

Undecided 11% (-1)

What appears to be behind the increase the support in Independence is according to the Times’ article is

an extraordinary surge in support for independence among young Scots aged between 18 and 24. Last October, support was running at 27 per cent but it has more than doubled in only four months and stands at 58 per cent among an age group feeling the full force of poor employment prospects and Westminster welfare cuts.

Oddly both sides of the debate can be encouraged by this finding, the no side can point out that the one demographic that has the lowest turnout in elections, it is the 18-24 age range.

This polling reinforces the trend we’ve seen in some of the other polls this year, that shows a swing towards Independence.

Overall both sides will be comforted by this polling, the no side, still retain a substantial lead, and the Independence side have ameliorated the slide in the polls they saw in 2012, but backing for separation has still not recovered to the level it was a year ago (39 per cent).

On the ratings on how some of the politicians are viewed in Scotland, will also give comfort to the SNP and supporters for Independence.

Satisfied/Dissatisfied

Alex Salmond 50/43, net rating of plus 7

David Cameron 27/67, net rating of minus 40

Nicola Sturgeon 50/33, net rating of plus 17

Alastair Darling 33/32, net rating of plus 1.

In January 2012, Alex Salmond’s net rating was plus 35, and in October 2012, it was plus 10.

There was more good news for the SNP in the poll when it comes to asking voters how they would use their first vote if there was a Holyrood election tomorrow (again changes from the last Mori poll in October)

SNP 43% (+3)

Labour 35% (-)

Conservatives 13% (-)

Liberal Democrats 7% (-1)

Others 2% (-2)

The Times say there will be some more polling information released tomorrow, about “What do Scots think of the EU?”

Ipsos-Mori questioned 1,003 Scottish adults aged 18 and over, between February 4 and 9, 2013.

Updated – Data Tables can be found here

TSE

BBC news

What would pulling out do to the independence debate?

Identity is one of the most potent forces in politics; the sense of who we are individually and collectively. That’s why the unusually strongly-worded statement from Rangers’ chief executive this week in response to the football authorities’ proposal there potentially brings two of the stronger identities into conflict: those of nationality and football club support.

The threat from Rangers to leave if a restructure leaves them in the bottom division, even if they win their championship this season, undoubtedly has more behind it than a protest against a perceived injustice. The riches of the English Premier League is an obvious draw, and the threat may be a bluff aimed at scuppering disadvantageous plans.

Even if they’re serious, there would be formidable logistical barriers to switching leagues (and, by implication, Associations). UEFA and FIFA view teams playing out of their Association’s area unfavourably and for Rangers to do so would currently require the sanction of the SFA, which is even less likely to be granted. On the other hand, the example of Swansea and Cardiff playing in the English competitions exists and questions of restraint of trade could be raised if Rangers transfer is refused, particularly given the already anomalous position of the Home Nations’ independent status in international football.

So what’s the link with the independence debate?

Firstly, there’s the implication that Scotland’s football can’t compete at the top level,and that the clubs would be better off together in the more lucrative league operating across the rest of Britain – an obvious echo of the unionist arguments.

Secondly, there’s the fact that even if Rangers can jump Hadrian’s Wall and join the league pyramid south of the border in the near future, it wouldn’t be sustainable were Scotland to become an independent country.

Thirdly, and in opposition, the sort of increasing integration Rangers move would exemplify would threaten Scotland’s position as an independent football force as long as it is part of the UK (as well as, by extension, those of the other Home Nations).

So how big an impact would it have should they were to pull it off? We shouldn’t underestimate how strongly a part of their identity some feel their football club allegiance to be. Nor how broad – every other weekend throughout the season, roughly 1% of Scotland’s entire population travels to Ibrox to watch the team in blue and many more would if they could – but neither should it be overstated.

Apart from the possible consequences providing arguments for both sides, the independence debate will surely turn on more obvious political subjects of economic prospects, self-control and other aspects of identity. But if Rangers are serious – and it’s not yet obvious if they are – then expect to hear a lot more about what their decision means, from both sides.

David Herdson

Ipsos-MORI blows for Alex Salmond/SNP/YES in the week the referendum deal was signed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 18, 2012

In the week that the referendum deal was signed….

There’s a new Ipsos-MORI Scotland poll for the Times this morning that has support for independence declining, the SNP’s Holyrood vote share down, and a reduction in Alex Salmond’s approval ratings.

Independence At the start of 2012 the firm, which came top of the 2011 Holyrood polling accuracy table, recorded that 39% of those certain to vote supported independence. in June that was down to 35% and today’s poll has it slipping even further to 30%.

A big challenge is a gender gap. Just 24% of women would vote ‘Yes’ compared with 37% of men. The age group that is most supportive is the 35-54 age group where it is at 35%.

The latest Holyrood voting intentions with comparisons on June are SNP 40%-5/LAB 35%+3/CON 13%+1/LD 8%+2

Salmond’s leader ratings are 50% satisfied to 40% dissatisfied. This is a net rating plus 10% which is down 3 on June. In January Salmond had a net satisfaction rating of 35%.

Although the trend is moving downwards Salmond’s ratings are positive unlike Dave, Ed and Nick.

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Have the polls “consistently” shown that Scots are opposed to independence?

Something that I know has privately frustrated the SNP in recent weeks and months is their perception that the media, especially south of the border but to some extent in Scotland as well, have bought into the anti-independence side’s narrative about what the polls on the referendum are showing.

Newsnight’s coverage of the “treaty” between the Scottish and UK governments might stand as a case in point. Kirsty Wark began her interview with Nicola Sturgeon by claiming that polls have “consistently” shown a substantial majority against independence, while David Grossman suggested that Alex Salmond’s pro-independence stance set him against the views of the “vast majority” of people in Scotland. (He later corrected himself by saying “the majority, anyway”.)

This echoes the recent efforts of a number of unionist politicians to advance the notion that support for independence has been “stuck” for many years or decades.

Two senior Conservative politicians, including the party’s current leader in Scotland, have even made the claim that “no poll in history” has ever shown public backing for independence. The SNP view this as blatant myth-making. So where does the truth lie?

Certainly the idea that there has never been a lead for the Yes side in an independence poll is easy enough to debunk. There have in fact been several such polls over the years, including two published since 2008 by TNS-BMRB and its predecessor TNS System Three. The most recent of these was conducted in August 2011, and showed a wafer-thin 39%-38% split in favour of independence. Such polls have tended to attract little or no attention outside Scotland, perhaps due to question marks over TNS’ credibility and track record. However, those concerns have notably not prevented the company’s more recent polls, showing clear majorities opposed to independence, from being widely reported and treated as authoritative.

If we go further back, even pollsters as respected as ICM and YouGov have sometimes shown pro-independence majorities. In November 2006, ICM asked a full-scale sample of Scots if they “approve or disapprove of Scotland becoming an independent country”. 52% of respondents approved, and 35% disapproved. Two months earlier, a YouGov poll had found a 44%-42% plurality in favour of independence.

So public opinion on this issue has in truth displayed a considerable degree of fluidity over the years. Why, then, has the narrative of polling “consistency” taken root so easily in the London-based media? In part, it’s probably because it would be almost impossible for the SNP to aggressively challenge the idea that support for independence is “stuck” without drawing attention to the fact that it has actually been moving in the wrong direction of late. More broadly, some nationalists suspect that there is a degree of confirmation bias among non-Scottish journalists and editors, who may not be uniformly hostile to independence, but who are nevertheless much more likely to instinctively dismiss the prospect of it ever happening as rather improbable.

What are the implications of this history of polling fluidity for betting on the referendum? I’ll cop out at this point, and simply note that interpretations may vary. Some will argue that the recent drop in support for independence is a decisive shift in public opinion caused by the focusing of minds on the impending choice, and is unlikely to be reversed. Others will view it as merely a “London 2012” blip, which may be more than offset by the arrival of the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow in referendum year. Nationalist optimists would also see the pro-independence pluralities of past years as being indicative of the existence of a substantial “floating” segment of the electorate who remain firmly up for grabs now.

But whichever interpretation you favour, my advice would be to base any betting judgements on the hard polling figures, rather than on sweeping generalisations about “what the polls show” – regardless of where those generalisations originate from.

James Kelly

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