Archive for the 'Scotland' Category

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ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

Tuesday, September 16th, 2014

Big news is that all 3 polls have same figures YES 48 NO 52

2040 First poll will be ICM for the Scotsman at 2100. Then Opinium for Telegraph 2115. Finally Survation for Mail at 2230

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble



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Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

Tuesday, September 16th, 2014

It was by far the top pollster at the 2011 Holyrood elections

There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow. The online firms that use polling panels – YouGov, Panelbase and Opinium, Survation which does online and phone, and an Ipsos-MORI phone poll.

It is that last one I’m most looking forward to because of its record in Scotland last time out – the Holyrood elections of 2011. We haven’t seen anything from the firm on the IndyRef since the night of the first debate at the start of August. Then it had YES 40/NO 54/ DK 7. Clearly a lot has happened in the intervening period.

It’s worth recalling, as in the chart above, that at the 2011 Scottish Holyrood elections Ipsos-MORI had a remarkably accurate final poll with the SNP, LAB and LD shares right to within one percent.

I decided not to embarrass the other pollsters by highlighting their record on that day in the chart. They performed poorly in comparison.

Whether past performance in that election proves to be a good guide we’ll have to wait until Friday. But the Ipsos-MORI survey from three years ago adds a lot to my confidence.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

Monday, September 15th, 2014

justyouwait (1)

A new poll of Canadians by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies has just come out and finds Scottish IndyRef YES is supported by 32% to 29%.

Interestingly amongst those sampled who are from Quebec the split was 44% YES to 24% NO.

The independence referendum that took place in the Province in October 1995 is is the closest comparison to Thursday’s big election in Scotland.

Back then YES went into polling day with a lead but voters in the Province rejected the move by a fraction of 1%. Interestingly the demographic splits that we are seeing in Scotland at the moment – women and the old being the most opposed to change, happened in Quebec.

  • If you would like to purchase one of Marf’s prints or originals, please contact her here.
  • Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    Alex Salmond says there are no NO voters, just deferred YES ones

    Sunday, September 14th, 2014

    You’ve got to be careful making presumptions about voters

    Given the polls there are three things that YES/Salmond have to do: Ensure there’s a maximum turnout amongst those currently saying YES; try to win over some switchers, and endeavour to ensure lower turnout levels amongst those inclined to NO.

    It is that last category, I’d suggest, that are most important which is why YES/Salmond have to ensure that what they do doesn’t galvanise those who are against change.

    I’m far from sure that his approach on this morning’s TV show has got this right. Making the presumptions he did and expressing them in such a dismissive manner could be impeding his overall objective.

    His hubris reminds me of claims ahead of the 2012 Scottish local elections. They’d swept to power at Holyrood with an overall majority the year before and Salmond and team repeatedly trumpeted that they were about to win full control of Glasgow. What happened? Labour returned to power with an overall majority and a night that should have been seen as an SNP success looked like failure.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    The rolling IndyRef polling thread…LATEST Panelbase has NO margin down to 1.2%

    Saturday, September 13th, 2014

    Tonight’s IndyRef polling running blog

    A total of four polls are expected tonight and this thread and chart will be updated as new information comes in.

    Opinium for the Observer has NO 6% ahead and Panelbase for the Sunday Times has a gap of just 1.2%.

    Earlier there was a ultra small sample online poll from ICM for the S Telegraph which had an 8% YES lead – in sharp contrast to firm’s phone poll for the Guardian. There was also a Survation phone poll for Better Together – first time in the campaign that this firm has carried out fieldwork in this way.

    The Survation approach involved calling mobiles as well as land-lines.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    Survation Indyref poll is out

    Saturday, September 13th, 2014

    On what appears to be first of a few indyref polls out today, the first one is survation, which should relax those at Better Together, as it gives them a larger lead than the ICM phone poll yesterday showed.

    As the tweet above notes, I’m led to believe that is a phone poll, so it shouldn’t be compared to Survation’s other indyref polls which were conducted online.

    I’ll update this post, when I find out the fieldwork dates or when further polls are released.

    Update

    It is a phone poll, conducted for Better together, conducted between Wednesday and Friday of this week, the data tables are here.

    TSE



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    If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women

    Friday, September 12th, 2014

    By more than two to one women don’t trust Salmond

    The big difference between the latest YouGov IndyRef poll and the one from last weekend showing a 2% YES lead has been a big switch amongst women voters.

    As the chart shows YES is almost maintaining a solid lead amongst men, It’s the big move amongst women voters in less than a week that have driven the big change. In the Sunday Times poll NO had just a 6% lead with them. Today’s poll has the women NO lead up to 16%.

    The gender divide has been a feature amongst all pollsters in almost all polls since surveys started on the coming referendum. What caused the big change last weekend was that the women on YouGov’s Scottish polling panel had moved sharply and were much less inclined to say NO. That has been reversed in the current poll.

    One of the challenges that YES has got with female voters is their lack of trust in Alex Salmond. Look at the gender divide here.

    Next poll up should be an ICM phone survey for the Guardian.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    The “Scare tactics” seem to be working: YouGov now have NO with 4% lead

    Thursday, September 11th, 2014