Archive for the 'Round-ups' Category

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Local By-Election Results: June 5th 2014

Friday, June 6th, 2014

Clydesdale South on South Lanarkshire (SNP defence)
Result: Labour 1,492 votes (41% -3%), Scottish National Party 1,170 (32% -10%), Conservative 659 (18% +8%), United Kingdom Independence Party 233 (6% +2%), Green 104 (3%)
Labour GAIN from SNP on the fifth count with a majority of 322 (9%) on a swing of 3.5% from SNP to Lab
Turnout: 30.97%

Newark in the Westminster Parliament (Con defence)
Conservatives 17,431 votes (45.03% -8.82% on Election 2010)
United Kingdom Independence Party 10,028 votes (25.91% +22.09% on Election 2010)
Labour 6,842 votes (17.68% -4.65% on Election 2010)
Independent 1,891 votes (4.88%)
Green 1,057 votes (2.73%)
Liberal Democrats 1,004 votes (2.59% -17.41% on Election 2010)
Monster Raving Loony Party 168 votes (0.43%)
Independent 117 votes (0.30%)
Bus Pass Elvis Party 87 votes (0.22%)
The Common Good 64 votes (0.16%)
Patriotic Socialist 18 votes (0.04%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 7,403 votes (19.13%) on a swing of 15.46% from Con to UKIP
Turnout: 52.67% (-18.72% on Election 2010)

Harry Hayfield



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The Ipsos-Mori Almanac

Saturday, December 29th, 2012

Ipsos-Mori have published their almanac for 2012, and it makes for fascinating reading, analysing the movements of 2012, and putting them into context and the problems and opportunities facing all the parties and leaders.

You can view it for free, here.

They note

the trigger for the Tories’ loss of support seems to have been the budget delivered by George Osborne on 21 March, or perhaps the “omnishambles” of U-turns and clarifications that followed it……

Gideon Skinner of Ipsos-Mori concludes

2012 seems unlikely to go down in the history books as a great political turning point. But it may turn out to be the first crack in the dam or, alternatively, be seen as the point when the coalition might have imploded, yet didn’t. With the next election probably more than two years away, much can yet change, not least in the economic situation which is so important to the political outcome.

Update

The Opininium Poll for the Observer is out,

Conservatives 29% (no change)

Labour 39% (no change)

Lib Dems 8% (no change)

UKIP 15% (plus 1)

TSE



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Continuation thread

Friday, August 24th, 2012

And an article worth reading

Over at Conhome, there’s an article by Mark Gettleson, who is is an elections and polling analyst, focusing on British and American politics. He writes for PoliticsHome.com and ‘The Knowledge’ in The House magazine. He is also a Liberal Democrat councillor.

He looks at whether A Liberal Democrat meltdown could kill Tory chances at the next election

 

 

TSE

 

Mike Smithson is currently on holiday

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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New Angus Reid poll out

Saturday, August 18th, 2012

Conservatives 30 (+1)

Labour 41 (-4)

Lib Dems 11 (+2)

UKIP 9 (nc)

There’s a new Angus Reid Poll out, the changes are from the last Angus Reid poll in June.

On the Leadership ratings scores, the leaders net ratings are as follows

David Cameron minus 23%

Nick Clegg minus 48%

Ed Miliband minus 17%

Angus Reid polled online 2,012 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panellists between August 14 to August 15,

  • There’s a ComRes poll out this evening. There are some supplementaries questions, which can be seen here
TSE

Mike Smithson is currently on holiday.



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Will Anthony’s thesis survive the January polls?

Wednesday, January 7th, 2009


UKPollingReport

Does this point to a Labour standstill or small decline?

In the week before Christmas Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report put forward the theory that Labour’s standing in the polls was closely linked with how optimistic the public were about the economy or the level of consumer confidence.

He argued that Labour’s low point in the early summer coincided with the low points on the Ipsos-MORI Economic Optimism Index and the Nationwide Building Society Consumer Confidence Index.

Thus while the world economic storm was dominating the headlines in the September – November 2008 period these two indices were actually seeing sharp rises which coincided with the Brown bounce.

The argument was that people felt things were getting better inspired, possibly, by a sense that the situation was under control. Also, of course, motorists and mortgage payers were seeing sharp reductions in their costs.

    Well now comes the real test for the thesis. The latest Nationwide consumer confidence numbers are out and show a dip as seen in the chart above. Will this be reflected in the January voting intention surveys?

We shouldn’t have too long to wait. Fieldwork for the January Populus survey for the Times starts on Friday and continues over the weekend and we might also see one or two polls in the Sunday papers. The Sunday Times YouGov poll often comes out at this stage in the month and there might just be ComRes and ICM as well.

If this does stand up then the theory promises to be a great tool for gamblers – particularly those betting on the general election markets. (William Hill’s wide range of UK political prices are generally available daytime only)

For if you can predict with a level of confidence that it’s getting better or worse for the government then it might be wise to bet before the voting intention polling numbers come out.

The trouble is, of course, that the bookies read PB as well and if the Wells thesis is correct then they will be soon adjusting their prices in line with these two indices.



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So how should Cameron respond?

Saturday, October 4th, 2008


This is an original cartoon by Marf for LondonSketchBook.com

    Is a Shadow Cabinet re-shuffle the best way to manage a lull?

The dramatic return to our shores of Peter Mandelson belies bespeaks a steely pragmatism – that an historic personal conflict has been tossed aside for either the national interest or the benefit of electoral mastery is no meagre move for a man derided as an egotist by his critics. To welcome back ‘the Prince of Darkness’ to the Cabinet, and reward him with a seat in the House of Lords, is a Faustian bargain that, whilst it invites risk, demonstrates that Brown is adamant that he will face the next election, and do whatever it takes to win.

After the news had sunk in, I could not help but wonder how David Cameron would respond. I found myself looking through the Shadow Cabinet, and wondering if Mr Cameron would repond by reshuffling his own front-bench team. Some have suggested that he would use this opportunity to move Caroline Spelman in light of recent allegations, or to promote rising stars such as Justine Greening into one of the junior positions in the Shadow Cabinet. He may yet do this, but I wonder if the example from the United States recommends restraining himself from responding too dramatically to all the Government does, and to embrace a lower-profile course.

Mike Smithson has been very clear that we cannot draw definitive conclusions from the polls until we are well beyond the vissicitudes of the Conference seasons. Even with that in mind, and even if we return to the polling positions of early September in a few weeks time, I find it implausible that there will not be any lull in Conservative Party support between now and the next election.

    Managing the inevitable lull in exuberant momentum will present Cameron with a new challenge, and I think the lesson to learn from the Obama campaign is to lower the profile, and shrug away the slight changes in the political weather until the filip of an unpredictable series of tactics employed by his opponent has run its course.

When Sarah Palin was announced as VP nominee by McCain, the term ‘game-changing’ quickly became a PB.com cliche. I think the return of Peter Mandelson, the re-appointment of Nick Brown, and the blossoming of new faith amongst Labour activists (justified or not) would be best countered with the same sort of reserve that Obama and Biden employed through early September. The unveiling of the GOP nominee, the paring down of the Republican Convention, the suspension of the McCain campaign – these have all been shown to be tactical successes that have done little to bolster the strategy of the Republican campaign for the White House. This is, I think, attributable to the preparedness of Obama-Biden to successfully manage the lull in their momentum.

There is no need to attempt a stroke against every ball from an increasingly erratic bowler. Indeed, in the longer term, I think it is perhaps better to allow the weaker party to throw their final punches against little resistance. There can be no winning knock-out blow for the challenger with so long to go before the final bell – engaging consistantly is merely tiring. Sitting tight, lowering the profile, and not responding in kind to every reshuffle and change might just be a smarter move for Cameron.

Morus

Note from Mike Smithson: This story is illustrated with a cartoon by Marf which is the pen-name of London-based cartoonist Martha Richler, who has drawn for the Daily Express, the Globe and Mail, London’s Evening Standard, and The First Post.



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Can we have confidence in the Sunday Telegraph’s new pollster?

Sunday, September 28th, 2008


Sunday Telegraph

    Has ICM been been dumped for an unregistered firm?

There’s a lot going on at the moment and the apparent decision of a major Sunday newspaper to switch pollsters might not seem that important – but today’s BPIX poll in the Sunday Telegraph raises serious issues for all who care about polling transparency.

For after using the respected ICM firm for years the Sunday Telegraph’s poll this morning is from a firm that is not part of the British Polling Council, doesn’t apparently respond to email requests for information, and has a web-site that has been “under construction” for getting on for four years.

    Polls play a huge part in shaping the political environment and pioneering firms like ICM have long recognised that public confidence in what they do requires transparency. We need to know how the polling numbers are produced and what the methodology is so we can take an informed view of what is said to be a reflection of public opinion.

Until now the main BPIX outlet has been the Mail on Sunday which has published the firm’s polls intermittently. If this is a permanent switch by the Sunday Telegraph – a paper that takes its political coverage seriously – it represents a major step backwards. I only hope that the editors put pressure on the firm to provide data like the rest of the major national pollsters.

Rant over. We do know that the fieldwork for BPIX is carried out by YouGov but without the standard data we have no idea how the headline figures were calculated. The findings themselves are showing the same sharp shift-back to Labour that we have seen in the recent YouGov and ICM surveys. Fieldwork started on Wednesday and continued until Friday.

Clearly the massive publicity of Labour’s party conference and the world financial crisis are having an impact on opinion and Gordon Brown is seeing the benefit. All this is going to make the Conservative Conference in Birmingham less of the breeze for Cameron and his team than many were predicting.

Facing a government that seems to have changed the media narrative is going to make the Tory challenge that more complex. There is now just an element of uncertainty about the next election and Cameron has to be ultra careful about expectation management and what his party says about the world crisis. His speech on Wednesday could be crucial.

Mike Smithson



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Continuation thread…

Thursday, August 21st, 2008
    And still we wait…

In spite of hints and rumours, there is still no confirmation of Barack Obama’s running mate as he speaks to a small crowd in Richmond, Virginia with Governor Tim Kaine. He is attacking McCain for having seven houses worth $13m – the Republican was unable to say how many properties he owned when asked earlier this week.

A small package of white powder has been sent to a McCain campaign office in Denver, according to breaking news on the Drudge Report.

Gordon Brown has been teased publically by Hamid Karzai, President of Afghanistan. He alluded to the regular practice in his country of Cabinet members trying to undermine him, but said that at least he didn’t have to put up with that from his Foreign Minister. Brown appears unamused…

Morus