Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category


First poll of the weekend from Opinium sees LAB lead move to 7%

Saturday, December 20th, 2014

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LAB lead now 7% with Opinium

YouGov has LAB 2% ahead with, as per usual, CON in the 30s

We are almost there – the final polls of the 2014. Generally there’s a complete break over the holiday period and the polling schedule returns to normal in the New Year.

Tonight I’m only aware of Opinium for the Observer and the usual YouGov for the Sunday Times. I’ve heard some rumours about one set of data but I’m not reporting anything till things are published.

This post will be updated as the numbers come in.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


Farage joins the minus 20 leader dissatisfaction club

Thursday, December 18th, 2014


Ipsos Mori sees the Tories retain their 3% lead

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Whilst the headline figures appear to be the same as last month for the Tories and Labour, what will delight the Tories is prior to the certainty to vote filter being applied, last month the Tories and Labour were tied, this month, the Tories lead by 4% .

Before the Tories get too excited, this poll sees them polling just over their 1997 nadir, and given Labour are polling close to their 2010 level, it could well be that the next general election is a case of the resistible force meeting a moveable object.

As noted yesterday, there’s been a fall in economic optimism, but unlike ICM the Tories haven’t seen their vote share fall. I suspect the the real polling position is a Labour lead of somewhere between zero and two percent, and the ICM and Ipsos-Mori polls are the outliers at both ends of the spectrum.

Of the three phone polls this week, have had the Greens on 2%, 5% and 9%. Sometimes this political betting game can be quite difficult when we have such variance.


For me the most interesting polling find from this is Nigel Farage’s ratings have a fallen by a net 14 points in a month, it could be the negative publicity UKIP have experienced over the those vying to be the UKIP candidate in Basildon and the debate over his comments on public breastfeeding. To put this fall into context, David Cameron’s ratings fell by 15 points in the immediate aftermath of the revelations about Milly Dowler’s voicemail.

Often a significant fall or rise leader’s ratings can be a harbinger for that party’s VI further down the line. We will have to wait until the New Year to see if this is merely a blip or a trend. But before Kippers get too despondent, Farage is still the best performing party leader (or technically speaking, the least worst) Labour supporters will be happy to see their man is ahead of Nick Clegg this month.



The latest Lord Ashcroft marginals poll is out

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

The latest round of Lord Ashcroft marginal polling is out. He says Two types of constituencies feature in my last round of marginals polling for 2014. First, the next tranche of seats the Conservatives are defending from Labour; second, a selection of seats where Labour may be under threat from UKIP. I have also returned to the solitary Green constituency, Brighton Pavilion.

I have just been on the phone to Mike, and his initial cursory thought that this is bad news for Labour, as the general trend is the Con to Lab swing in the marginals is getting smaller, as the below graph shows. Is this the famed swingback taking place?

Lord Ashcroft concurs with Mike’s assessment, he says “Moderate Tory cheer and a fright for Labour in my final marginals poll of 2014″ He adds though Unfortunately for the Tories my constituency polls have so far found Labour ahead in 39. However, some of the margins look very slim, not just over the Tories but over UKIP. Moreover, we have not yet looked in detail at Scottish constituencies, which could potentially change the equation dramatically. My fieldwork north of the border will begin in the New Year.

As ever, Lord Ashcroft reminds us, a poll is a snapshot and not a prediction.

Looking at the Lab held seats, the initial voting intention question makes good reading for UKIP, as they are ahead in 3 and tied in 1, however on the second question, Labour hold all four but not as comfortably as you’d expect the main opposition to do so. The 13.5% Lab to UKIP swing shows, as evidenced most memorably in Heywood and Middleton, UKIP can be a threat to Labour as well the Tories.

For the Greens, they are holding Brighton Pavillion, on the second question, quite comfortably, but losing on the first question. Overall the second quesiton should be a better predictor than the first question, as it refers to how you would vote in your own specific constituency.


The Ipsos-Mori phone poll is out, I plan to do a separate thread on that this afternoon.


Guardian ICM phone poll sees the Tories down 3 and the Lib Dems up 3

Wednesday, December 17th, 2014

The Tories are down to their lowest share of the vote since May 2013 with ICM But the Lib Dems will be delighted as ICM is the third pollster this week to have them in double digits, two of them being phone pollsters.

But did George Osborne’s Autumn Statement contribute to the Tory slump?

The fieldwork for the ICM poll was the 12th to the 16th of December.

Meanwhile Ipsos-Mori finds that economic optimism is the lowest since July 2013




LDs up 3 to 12 – the big mover in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

Monday, December 15th, 2014

CON/LAB/LD all up – UKIP/GREEN down

The LDs will be delighted with this poll even though they are only half the level that they got at GE2010 – but this is a bit of progress. UKIP and the Greens are down while LAB and move up.

It should emphasised that the long-standing ComRes series of phone polls for the Independent is completely separate from the monthly online surveys from the Indy on Sunday.

Tonight’s poll also found that those sampled rejected Osborne’s plan to cut public spending faster in order to run a budget surplus by a margin of 2-1. Some 30% of people agree that government spending should be reduced until the deficit is cleared and the budget in surplus, even if this means severe cuts to public services, but 66%t disagreed.

By a margin more than two to one, people do not trust either David Cameron or Ed Miliband to cut public spending without harming services like the NHS, as both promise to do. The two leaders have identical scores: 28% say they trust them to achieve this, while 67% do not.

And from Survation a non-surprise from Dave’s Witney

My only comment on this is what a wasted opportunity. What we want is data on marginals and Scotland where there has been an absence of constituency polling.

UNITE want to draw attention to their TIPP campaign which is why they’ve funded this. But why not go for seats that would be newsworthy?


Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


Comres online poll sees the Blues up by 3 points

Saturday, December 13th, 2014

This month’s ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror sees Labour’s lead reduced from 4% to 1%.

It fits in with what we’ve seen in recent weeks and months with other pollsters, with there being very little between Tories and Labour, the Lib Dems will be delighted to see daylight between themselves and the Greens.

Onto the supplementaries,

Voters see the Conservatives as more right wing than the UK Independence Party. The poll asked people to locate themselves and political parties and leaders on a spectrum ranging from 0, very left wing, to 10, very right wing, with 5 in the centre.

UKIP’s average score was 6.6, as was Nigel Farage’s, while the Conservative Party was 6.9 and David Cameron was 6.8. The average voter places him or herself just to the right of centre, at 5.3. Nick Clegg is on 5.1, the Liberal Democrats are at 4.9, and Labour and Ed Miliband are on 4.1.

The findings suggest that Labour attempts to portray UKIP as “more Thatcherite than Thatcher” have not worked, and may help to explain why UKIP is attractive to some disaffected Labour voters.


Meanwhile on the question of If you had to, which of these political figures would you most like to….


The fieldwork details, 2,014 GB adults took part online between Wednesday and Friday of this week.



“The next CON leader will not be a white man” – Tory insider

Wednesday, December 10th, 2014

Theresa May up 4% in ConHome party members’ next leader survey

The comment in the heading for this post was made to me at a recent social event by someone I regard as a leading Tory insider. It certainly has a ring of truth about it given that the two contenders currently being talked about are Theresa May and Sajid Javid, the culture Secretary.

This conversation took place before the latest ConHome findings from its regular party member surveys. Theresa May, as can be seen, is on the up and cabinet newcomer, Javid, is rated highly.

In national polling an area where the Tories and David Cameron are almost always rated poorly is when voters are asked about which party/leader will be “best for people like us“.

If the party has to leave government after May 7th then expect a lot of soul-searching over what went wrong and why, against someone perceived as being weak, Ed Miliband, they failed. It is in that context that May or Javid will stand a good chance.

Remember that the glory days for the party, the late seventies an eighties, the leader was a woman from a modest background.

Of course if David Cameron is still PM then there will be no immediate contest in prospect and Theresa May’s time will surely have passed. She is 58 years old.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble