Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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Ipsos Mori April Political Monitor is out

Thursday, April 10th, 2014

UKIP gets a surge from the debates whilst the the Lib Dems take a 4 point hit.

Labour will be delighted that the budget bounce other pollsters have shown hasn’t happened here as their share of the vote is up 2 and their lead has doubled from 3 to 6.

Nick Clegg and ultimately David Cameron must regret having the debates as UKIP appear to have used the debates to time a surge in the polls for next month’s Local & European elections perfectly.

There’s also a boost for George Osborne whose approval is the best for a Tory Chancellor since  Nigel Lawson in 1987, which was followed by a Tory landslide a few months later.

Dave will be delighted that whilst the polling was conducted when Maria Miller was in the news the Tory drop was only 1 point and his lead over Ed in the leader ratings has widened.

The fieldwork was Sat to Mon.

TSE



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UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

Tuesday, April 8th, 2014

In no way are the purples as big a threat to LAB as CON

There’s consistent talk at the moment of UKIP being a bigger threat to LAB than CON. This is a point that Mr Farage wants to hammer home on virtually every occasion.

Yet quite simply this is not supported by the data. Just look at the chart above based on data from the month’s biggest poll, the Populus/FT March aggregate with a sample of 16,424

Because of the sheer size of the aggregate sample we can draw firmer conclusions from the subset findings than in individual polls with samples between one and two thousand.

The chart shows the breakdown of the current UKIP vote based on the responses of 1,368 current UKIP voters to question of what they said they did last time. As can be seen the lion’s share belongs to those who voted CON at the 2010 general election. They comprise just under 44% of the total while 2010 LAB switchers represent just over 7%.

It is true that UKIP gets a lot of support from the C1,C2 and D demographic groups but not, if you analyse the data, from that many who voted Labour in 2010.

Things could change but for the moment it is the blue team which has been most hit by the rise of Farage’s party.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The Tories slip back sharply in the latest PB YouGov Weekly Average as UKIP jumps 2pc

Sunday, April 6th, 2014

The budget bounce appears to be over

The LDs move into double figures for the first time



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Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll

Saturday, April 5th, 2014

Last week the Survation GE2015 gap was just 1% – now it’s 7%

Survation finds 6% CON drop for EP2014 as both UKIP & LD get boosts

On the Euro polling the big difference between Survation and ComRes was on the timing of the fieldwork. All of the Survation work took place after the Clegg/Farage BBC TV debate.

As can be seen the firm reports big changes compared with a week ago with the Tories as the main loser.

I’m hoping that there’ll an EP2014 question in the YouGov Sunday Times poll due out overnight.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Farage v Clegg post debate polling is out

Wednesday, April 2nd, 2014

The first two polls have big victories for Farage

 

I’ll update this thread when the other polling comes in.

Update I – From ICM

UPDATE II

UPDATE III

TSE



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On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second leg BBC2

Wednesday, April 2nd, 2014

Because this is on BBC2 it’s expected that it will get a much larger audience.

Who’ll win? As has been said many times before – both of them.

This thread will be updated.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

Wednesday, April 2nd, 2014

But there’s still a long way to go

As regulars will know my analysis of the GE 2015 outcome is mostly focused on two key polling measures – the proportion of 2010 CON voters now saying UKIP and the 2010 LD who say they’ll vote Labour.

These have to decline if the blues are to have any chance whatsoever of remaining in power on May 8th next year.

    For the polling of the past four years has seen very little switching between the two main parties. Rather it is the impact of other movements which are driving the numbers and underpinning the LAB lead.

Thanks to the new Populus monthly aggregate we are able to track the changes with big overall samples. The movements above might seem slight but they are based on a month’s polling and from the blue perspective are in the right direction.

We mustn’t forget the massive challenge that the Tories face with the inherent advantages that LAB enjoys. The latter’s vote is more lumpy across the seats with, traditionally, better performances where it matters.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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The ComRes “East of England” poll that isn’t quite what the BBC reported it to be

Tuesday, April 1st, 2014

There’s been a huge fuss over the past couple of hours over a ComRes a EP2014 “poll” that has UKIP on 44% in their area of greatest strength, East of England. The above is a screenshot showing the data was portrayed in the “Look East” programme.

Only problem is that there has been no poll. What, apparently, this is based on is a sub-sample of 58 from the three week old ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday/S Mirror.

Notice also that the total of shares shown on the screen added up to 112%.

As we say repeatedly there is always a danger when you pick a sub-sample of this size and seek to draw conclusions. The demographic weightings in the poll apply to the whole sample of 2001 and not to each individual component.

Overall that ComRes poll was the best the the purples have seen with a national share of 30% and I’d predict that in this region UKIP will do better than the national numbers. But 44% seems very much on the high side.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter