Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage, renationalising the railways and the death penalty

Wednesday, November 26th, 2014

The polling’s certainly unique though I’m unsure about what it tells us



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The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON trailing by 5%

Monday, November 24th, 2014

But these are the most dramatic figures of all

This is starting to get serious for the blue team

As usual at 4pm on Monday Lord Ashcroft publishes his latest weekly national phone poll and today’s show the LAB lead moving to 5%.

The followed this morning’s Monday Populus online poll that had Lab 36 (=) Con 31 (-2), LD 9 (=), UKIP 15.(+1) So both today’s surveys have comfortable margins for EdM’s team which if it wasn’t for the current problems north of the border would point to a solid majority on May 7th.

It’s that Scottish uncertainty that is dominating things. LAB needs to have bigger GB leads than 5% to be sure of a majority without his current total of 41 Scottish MPs.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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How online polls are producing higher LAB and UKIP shares while phone surveys are best for the LDs and Greens

Monday, November 24th, 2014

CON is about the same under either approach

After my post last night on how there is a big gap between phone and online polling on the CON+LAB aggregates I decided to take this a bit further looking at how each party fared under each approach.

The results, based on the last public polls of nine firms, are featured in the chart above. Essentially LAB and UKIP do better with the online polling while the LDs and Greens come out with better figures in phone polls.

Tory shares show very little variation between the two approaches.

ComRes which carries out monthly phone and online GE2015 surveys has been included in each category. The ICM figures are based on the Guardian poll while its online Wisdom Index for the Sunday Telegraph has not been included because it is not a voting intention poll.

I plan to update this monthly to see if the same pattern continues. Looking back over previous months it appears that the current picture has been operating for some time.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Daily Express reporting new poll with UKIP in second place

Sunday, November 23rd, 2014

No other details known at the moment

UPDATE

2nd Update 0430

The poll appears to be based on a subset of Sun readers from a YouGov poll which so far had not been published.

Sun Readers are not representative of the electorate as a whole

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Here’s a funny thing. Polls that carry out fieldwork online are 3-9 points more favourable to the “big 2″ than phone surveys

Sunday, November 23rd, 2014

The big methodology difference is in sampling. The phone firms used randomised dialling and theoretically anybody with a landline, and now mobile, can be included.

Online polls are generally carried out amongst members of a polling panel who perhaps are slightly different from the electorate as a whole in they’ve signed up in the first place and are doing the survey for money.

It was only when I was looking through recent findings from the different firms that I found the split featured in the chart above.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

Wednesday, November 19th, 2014

Finally for tonight

UPDATE: CON back in lead with YouGov



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What LAB voters like about their party: Some surprising Opinium findings that conflict with the media narrative

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014



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Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

Tuesday, November 18th, 2014

What we need now are Scottish constituency polls

The second part of the Daily Record Survation poll of Scottish voters was published overnight and finds a big increase in SNP support since the IndyRef with an even bigger drop in the Labour share.

It doesn’t really need to be said that the prospect of losing a significant part of its current base of 41 seats North of the border is going to make Labour’s challenge at the General Election that much harder.

    On some computations these latest numbers would leave Scottish LAB with just five seats out of the 41 it currently has.

That might sound an awful lot but it is far better than the same calculations that were being made three weeks age when the Ipsos-MORI quarterly Scottish poll had the SNP on 52% with LAB on 23%. Then the talk was of just one Scottish LAB MP remaining.

So in one sense today’s Survation poll could have been worse for LAB. It wasn’t as bad as Ipsos-MORI.

The best way of working out the impact in terms of seats is through single constituency polling which Lord Ashcroft had said he had in the pipeline. He asks a two stage voting question with the second requesting those sampled to focus on the specifics of their own seats. And as we have seen this can make a big difference.

One thing of course to bear in mind is that the loss by Labour of Scottish seats to the SNP has no impact on the Tory ambition of winning an overall majority. That requires the blues to win seats not LAB to lose them to another party.

As I wrote yesterday full Scottish polls have been something of a rarity since the IndyRef. This is just the third so we have not got too much data to base things on. But all three surveys have pointed to catastrophic LAB losses the only differences between on the scale of what might happen.

And to reiterate Lord Ashcroft’s regular caveat – polls are a snapshot not a prediction.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble