Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category


New YouGov polling on what would happen if there was no UKIP

Friday, October 21st, 2016

The standard poll with UKIP included

How same sample responded when UKIP excluded


New YouGov polling finds REMAIN voters far from being reconciled to leaving EU

Friday, October 14th, 2016

80% of remainers think we’ll be worse off – just 5% better off

This is quite an interesting question from YouGov which the firm’s been using in one form or another since well before the referendum.

The splits in the chart are the most stark – how those who voted REMAIN view it compared with LEAVE voters. Amongst GE2015 voters just CON voters tell YouGov that they believe country will be better off. 32% say worse off.

Amongst the different age group the 65+ segment is most confident that this will end well with 44% saying better off to 28% worse off.

Clearly we have to wait to see what sort of deal TMay & co end up with and things can change. Maybe the Tories are helped by such low expectations?

Mike Smithson


New ICM poll finds LAB 17% behind overall with the 75+ group splitting 70-7% for the Tories

Monday, October 10th, 2016

So far no sign that Corbyn’s re-election is restoring LAB’s fortunes

If LAB was hoping that the end of its leadership contest with Corbyn continuing was going to restore its fortunes then there’s no sign of it yet. The latest Guardian ICM poll is out and has an overall split of:

CON 43%: LAB 26%: LD 8%: UKIP 11%: GRN 6%

It is the massive age differences that are very striking as can be seen in the chart above. LAB leads in one segment the 18-24 who are, of course, the group least likely to vote. Amongst the 75%+ group Corbyn’s party is on just 7%.

Corbyn always claims that his mandate comes from the members. Fine if that is what he wants to believe. But he has to lead his party in a way that shows that LAB can make inroads into the Tory position and so so there is zero indication that he’s doing that.

Mike Smithson


So far no conference or JC re-election bounce for LAB

Friday, September 30th, 2016

No change at YouGov following events of last week

New findings on TMay

But BREXIT not seen to be going well

Little appetite for an early election


Trump winning the online, unscientific, polling

Wednesday, September 28th, 2016

Why PB is introducing a new policy on voodoo poll comments

PB is introducing a new policy for its comments. Any comment that refers to a self-selecting voodoo poll as though it was a real poll where the sample has been properly selected will be deleted. Repeated regular offenders risk having their posting rights withdrawn.

The reason is that we are seeing so many non-selecting polls where anyone with internet access is able to participate that these can be confusing. Just look at how Trump is using the voodoo polls to bolster his effort.

From now on commenters can refer to such surveys but they need to distinguish them from proper polls.

Mike Smithson


Voters old enough to remember WW2 the least likely to be attracted by Mr. Corbyn and his party

Monday, September 26th, 2016

Findings from the latest ICM and ComRes polls


Just 16% tell ComRes that LAB-led JC likely to win GE compared with 65% saying TMay-led CON will

Saturday, September 24th, 2016

Round-up of findings from latest ComRes online poll for Indy/S Mirror




With polls tightening & the betting moves to Trump tonight’s PB/Polling Matters TV Show/Podcast returns to WH2016

Thursday, September 15th, 2016

Joining Keiran (on the programme is the Politco polling analyst, Steven Shepard (@POLITICO_Steve) and Federica Cocco (@federicacocco) statistical journalist at the Financial Times in the UK.

The Clinton health scare on the 15th anniversary of 9/11 and her team’s reaction to it have reinforced doubts about her and have inevitably given Trump a boost. This is, of course, being reflected in the betting where the latest on the Betfair Exchange has Trump on 34/35%. Clinton is hovering around the 60% level.

Keiran and Steven discuss the impact of Clinton’s healthcare issues on the race and Trump’s path to the presidency. Steven shares the latest US polling news and explains what the Electoral College would look like if each candidate won the states where they lead in the most recent poll. The result might surprise you. Steven also explains what is going on in Ohio and the potential impact of the coming presidential debates.

Keiran and Federica look at parallels between Brexit and Trump’s support and Federica gives a detailed analysis of Trump’s position among American female voters (including an interesting stat about which group is most likely to turnout at presidential elections). Keiran raises Clinton’s trust issues and whether Trump’s tone has changed. Finally, Keiran and Federica look at voter expectations about who will win the first presidential debate and why this might be a problem for Clinton. The show finishes on the debates and a great Blackadder quote from Federica.

The audio podcast is available here.

Mike Smithson