Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

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ICM blow for Corbyn as he tries to hang on: LAB now 16% behind at lowest level since 2009

Tuesday, July 26th, 2016

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CON 43% (+4)
LAB 27% (-2)
LD 8% -1
UKIP 13% -1
GRN 4%

If other pollsters follow ICM’s 16% CON lead it could create greater clamour for May to call a general election

In many ways the latest ICM poll is hardly surprising. The Tories have a new leader who is enjoying a honeymoon period while Labour is in all sorts of trouble with 80% of its MPs saying they have no confidence in their leader.

The splits are also being magnified by the current leadership contest which are dominating the domestic political agenda.

One thing that polling like this could trigger is a clamour for Theresa May to call a general election. After all the current majority of 12 is hardly comfortable and already the Eurosceptic right is starting to make noises about the deal Britain might end up with during the BREXIT process.

This poll will also add to the pressure on Corbyn. It matters little that many members and £25 sign-ups back him if the party under his leadership is failing so badly in the polls.

As in all things we need to see other surveys from other firms.

Mike Smithson




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The battle for Labour appears to be being won by contender with the “assisted place” on the ballot

Tuesday, July 19th, 2016

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Sam Coates- The Times

New YouGov LAB members’ polling suggests Corbyn heading for easy victory

Last week’s big LAB leadership news was the decision of the party’s NEC that Corbyn, as the incumbent, should not be troubled by the need to find MP/MEP nominations in order to get on the ballot which had been triggered by Angela Eagle. It was always reckoned that he would struggle in that task and the NEC’s decision was clearly vital.

Overnight the Times has the first polling of LAB members who were in the party prior to the qualifying date that was laid down by the NEC. The figures are in the graphic above. The full data from the poll has not yet been published but there is little comfort from the numbers for either Eagle or Smith. Corbyn’s position is getting stronger.

Of course this is very early in the process. Neither Eagle or Smith are that well known and neither have actually started the process of campaigning. Also a lot could happen between now and September 24th when the result will be announced.

    But it is hard to argue with the current Betfair betting which gives Corbyn a 68% chance of holding on

We are in a high octane political period and we have yet to see much polling response to Theresa May as PM.

The expectation is that Smith or Eagle will agree amongst themselves to have a single candidate running against Corbyn. That would at least stop any argument between them getting in the way of their central message that Labour’s general election chances are hopeless under the current leadership.

There’s also reported to be a legal case against the NEC over its decision to give Corbyn favourable treatment.

One thing that is helping Corbyn is that May has ruled out an early general election. If that was a real prospect then the whole climate would be more frenzied.

Mike Smithson




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Theresa May – the first national polling since she became PM

Saturday, July 16th, 2016

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The first polling looks promising for TM



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May beats Leadsom by 32 points in latest YouGov poll

Monday, July 4th, 2016

What a contrast to the Conhome poll – The Leadsomites will be devastated  by this poll

And it looks like Michael Gove trashed his reputation for nothing

YouGov polled 994 Tory members between 1st and 4th July

TSE



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New YouGov polling finds that Corbyn has lost his LAB members’ lifeline. He now looks doomed

Friday, July 1st, 2016


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YouGov

His equivocal & lacklustre referendum campaign has damaged him with the members he needs

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Above are some of the key findings from a new YouGov poll of LAB party members – the very people that Corbyn is looking to to help keep him in his job.

He’s portraying his current battle with his MPs as one between them and the membership who so enthusiasticly voted him to the leadership last September. Until May he was still enjoying overwhelming member support but the referendum appears to have changed all that.

    The suggestions that he might have voted leave and that close advisors were trying to sabotage the efforts to stay in the EU appear to have undermined his standing with the members he desperately needs.

If it goes to a vote it is now far from certain that he would get the backing even though a match up against Angela Eagle has him 10% ahead.

The polling undermines totally Corbyn’s claims to have ongoing membership support. I think that his days are now numbered and he’ll become another casualty of last week’s referendum vote.

YouGov has an excellent record with LAB member polling and got last September’s election almost dead on.

Mike Smithson




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LEAVE back in the lead with YouGov while ORB phone sees gap get narrower

Monday, June 20th, 2016

EU Ref polling   Google Sheets

Still to come the big National Centre survey – an academic project led by Professor John Curtice. This is embargoed until midnight although it has been widely reported showing a 6% REMAIN lead.



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The referendum: The affluent versus the non-affluent summed up in two Populus polling charts

Monday, June 20th, 2016



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ComRes poll finds voters feel more positive about leaving the EU than they do about staying

Saturday, June 18th, 2016

44% would be “delighted” by a Leave vote; only 28% by a Remain vote

ComRes have conducted an online poll for the Independent on Sunday/People, whilst the poll doesn’t ask a EU referendum voting intention question, because ComRes prefer their phone polls for the EURef, the supplementaries are fascinating.

Labour voters are more than twice as likely as Conservative voters to say they would feel terrified if Britain votes to leave the EU next week (39% leave v 17% remain). Conservative voters are divided on this (26% leave v 25% remain).Conversely, Conservative voters are more likely than Labour voters to say they will feel delighted in the result of Britain voting to leave the EU (43% v 31%).

But was there an impact from the murder of Jo Cox?

Andrew Hawkins, Chairman of ComRes, says

We have provided an additional crossbreak to split out respondents interviewed before 2pm on Thursday and those interviewed afterwards.  Of course, not all respondents will have learned of the attack immediately, so it is reasonable to assume that the cut-off may under-measure reaction to the news. 

The comparisons are slightly contradictory across all of the questions, and the results should be taken with a degree of caution, since the pre-2pm sample comprised 1854 respondents and the post-2pm sample only 192.

Nevertheless…across ALL factors reaction to a Leave vote is more negative post-2pm.

It is just possible that the post-2pm sample varies from the pre-2pm one enough to create this more negative impact for Leave.  But it is also intuitive to assume that there will have been some impact, even if only marginal, of Thursday’s events.  And not all of those post-2pm respondents will have heard the news by the time they participated in the survey.

But due to the size of the sample, we should wait until the first poll conducted entirely after her murder before drawing any conclusions,  but many people wont be surprised if these ComRes findings are replicated in a full poll.

ComRes also asked a Westminster VI question, the results are Con 34% (-2) Lab 29% (-1) LD 8% (NC) UKIP 19% (+2) Green 4% (NC) SNP 5% (NC) Other 1% (NC)

Opinium also conducted an EURef poll, which was Remain 44 (nc) Leave 44 (+2) but the majority of the fieldwork was before 2pm on Thursday.

TSE