Archive for the 'Pollsters/polling' Category

h1

Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

The latest spate of London polls has been very positive for Labour with vote shares in the capital up 9% or more on 2010. It really does look as though the party is going to do very well there.

The only problem is that there aren’t that many CON targets apart from Hendon, Brentford & Isleworth,Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central. Obviously the party’s got hopes in two or three Lib Dem seats but these are nothing like as important as gains from CON.

    In terms of being top party on seats each CON seat that LAB takes has the same impact as two gains from the LDs

As we’ve discussed here before FPTP elections are as much about where your vote is rather than how many. So if LAB is putting on a disproportionate increase of votes in one group of seats, London for instance, then that will be reflected in smaller elsewhere.

London has 73 constituencies out of a total English contingent of 533.

New ComRes Scottish phone poll points to 28 lost LAB seats

ComResSc

This poll is the first of its kind and is restricted to just the Scottish seats that Labour currently holds. The picture is what we’ve seen with other forms of polling and confirms the difficulties that exist north of the border. It’s estimated that this polling points to Labour losing 28 seats to the SNP.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

The second morning of GE2015

TNS, with its new online polling series, becomes the first internet firm since the Paxo events to report a CON lead, albeit a small one.

The LAB camp, meanwhile, will take some heart from the range of EdM findings featured above. The key thing here is the direction they are going. “Would he be up to the job of being PM?” – was 23 to 59 in February while the latest has that at 30 to 45. The recovery seems to be all coming from LAB voters who now back their man by 79% to 9.

I’ve long taken the view that Ed ratings amongst those who support the party are a good pointer. Labour’s got to maximise its vote on May 7th if it has to have a chance then faith in the leadership amongst party voters is key.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

What will tomorrow’s polls show – UP or DOWN?

The first number I hunt out when Lord Ashcroft publishes a new set of marginals’ polling is the average CON to LAB swing in the seats being surveyed. This gives a good pointer to the way things are going.

Tomorrow the good Lord is providing us with eight more separate constituency polls with the usual 1,000 sample in each.

The chart shows the movement in the swing in each wave of polling in LAB facing CON-held seats over the past year. The big move in his most recent wave was a small LAB recovery though the numbers are nothing like as good for the red team as they were last May.

What is tomorrow going to show?

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to support the YouGov 4% LAB lead poll

Monday, March 30th, 2015

There’ve been three published polls since the Sunday Times YouGov LAB 4% lead poll. ComRes had 4% CON lead last night, Populus had the parties level pegging this morning and now Lord Ashcroft has a 2% CON lead.

So it is starting to look as though YouGov might have been an outlier. We’ll see what the firm’s latest poll has tonight.

It is starting to look as though the Tories are starting the campaign in a strongish position and Labour will be disappointed by the last 24 hours.

What we haven’t seen yet is an online poll since last Thursday’s event to record a CON lead.

ENGLAND ONLY figures @LordAshcroft poll
CON 40
LAB 34
LD 7
UKIP 11
GN 7

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

Monday, March 30th, 2015

At almost exactly this point before GE2010 YouGov had CON ahead with teachers

In December 2013 that had become a 41% LAB lead

It was said in July that this was why Lynton was behind the Gove sacking

During one of the breaks at the big LSE GE forecasting conference on Friday I was asked for suggestions of ideas for interesting polling that could tell us more than what we see in standard surveys or constituency polling. After pondering this over the weekend I think that a repetition of the surveys above might give us a useful insight.

It was said at the time of the last reshuffle in the summer that Michael Gove was sacked as Education Secretary because Lynton Crosby had picked up the same voting switch amongst teachers of whom there are about 900 in each has constituency. Add on their close families and you’ve got a significant voting block.

The big question now is whether taking Gove out of the picture has had the desired effect or whether there is an ongoing hostility to the Tories which is still causing a disproportionate amount of switching.

New polling could be very enlightening.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

The voting intentions of those who watched Thursday’s programme and those that didn’t

Sunday, March 29th, 2015

Nearly 20% of the YouGov respondents watched Thursday’s programme, whereas around only 5% of the public actually watched the programme so this might be what may be somewhat over amplifying Ed’s performance and the Labour lead.

What does indicate that is a good poll for Labour and Ed is the relative improvement in Ed’s ratings, he’s gone from a net minus 46% at the end of February, to net minus 29% today. In the same time frame David Cameron’s ratings have improved by 4% and Nick Clegg’s have improved by 12%. Since last week, Cameron, Miliband and Clegg’s ratings have improved by 3%, 10% and 7% respectively.

Peter Kellner, writing in the  Sunday Times says of this poll

[It] indicates a swing of more than six percentage points from Conservative to Labour across England and Wales. If this were repeated in every constituency, Labour would gain enough seats to come close to an outright majority, even if it lost badly in Scotland. Labour would end up with 314 MPs and the Tories 251, followed by the Scottish National party (48) and Liberal Democrats (16).

If this poll is a harbinger of the election result, then the 16.5 on a Labour majority on Betfair needs to snapped up PDQ. The next few phone polls with their random selection should give us a better idea. But with three more debates/events, of which Ed is the only attendee, Labour must be feeling confident if he can replicate this kind of win with those who watch the programmes.

The full YouGov data tables are available here

TSE



h1

The Tories close the gap in Survation-Mirror poll to just 1%

Wednesday, March 25th, 2015

All polls, it seems, moving to level-pegging or thereabouts

Two things stand out with the Survation-Mirror poll that’s just been released. Firstly the Tories have almost closed the gap although, it should be noted, the firm was giving CON a lead in January.

Secondly, and perhaps not unrelated, UKIP is down further to 17%. That’s high but towards the end of last year Survation recorded a 24% UKIP share – the biggest ever.

What is very clear is that almost all the firms now have Farage’s party on the decline even though there is quite a variation on the shares. With polling it is the direction of travel that matters.

The Tories will be delighted that the gap is now so narrow.

These latest numbers mean that all the firms reporting this week have been tied or with a couple of points.

UPDATE Survation seat specific findings

LAB 32.3
CON 31.8
LD 9.2
UKIP 17.3
GN 3.9

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement

Wednesday, March 25th, 2015

A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on Cameron’s 3rd term announcement

As you’d expect Tom Clarke in the Guardian reports a partisan split in the responses. His report notes that with CON supporters, 56% to 27% believe his move was right. Among LAB supporters, the view was by 50% to 29% – that he got it wrong.

Where Cameron came in for more criticism was over his speculation about who his successor might be.

In the betting, meanwhile, the Tories remain strong favourites to win most seats.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble