Archive for the 'Police Commissioners' Category


There’s a danger of Leave peaking too soon

Sunday, June 5th, 2016

Only the churlish would deny it’s been a very good week for Leave, especially in the opinion polls, I think that’s in part because Leave have been focussing heavily on immigration, and moved away from the economy, where they are perceived to behind Remain. With another poll out tomorrow with Leave ahead, the narrative is changing, and that might not be to Leave’s advantage.

During the Scottish Independence referendum campaign it was said the famous YouGov poll that put Yes ahead came one week too early as it made the focus of the campaign what an Independent Scotland would look like, Yes weren’t able to convince a majority of their country, and they lost, as well as allowing the No campaign enough time to regroup.

As we see with Michael Gove’s interview this morning, it’s clear Remain can exploit any uncertainties and implausible plans by Leave, and David Cameron is famously an essay crisis Prime Minister, and these are the sort of situations he thrives on, As if Leave looks like winning, they won’t be able to focus solely on immigration, and move them back onto the economy, as they have to spend more time explaining what Brexit means for the  UK economy and the jobs of voters.

On Thursday night, I spoke to someone from Vote Leave, and he observed he wouldn’t be confident until Leave were consistently 7% ahead in the polls, as most polls weren’t picking up voters from Northern Ireland, Gibraltar and ex-pats, which he thought would be worth around 1-2% to Remain, plus  Leave were factoring in a 2-3% swing to Remain on voting day as people end up backing the status quo, as that is what has happened in most plebiscites.

As the Duke of Wellington put it, “Hard pounding this, gentlemen; let’s see who will pound longest,” can Leave keep on pounding on immigration for the the next eighteen days? For Leave’s sake they better hope they aren’t Napoleon but The Seventh Coalition.





LAB moves to 46 percent – 14 points ahead of the Tories and its best position for nearly a decade

Thursday, November 15th, 2012

But all three leaders see ratings improvements

Unlike cheapie online polls I regard the four phone surveys that we get each month as an event. The one out today is from Ipsos-MORI and shows Labour up to their highest level with the firm since the 2001-2005 parliament.

This pollster, it should be recalled, uses only those 100% certain to vote in its headline figures.

The firm also has its leadership ratings which have been asked in the same way since before Maggie Thatcher’s victory in 1979.

The latest breakdown are above and show all three party leaders moving forward.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news


Is David Davis planning a second resignation?

Tuesday, August 2nd, 2011

Could this create the vacancy so Boris could return?

I’m picking up a vibes from Tories in Yorkshire,  where I used to work, that David Davis is thinking about leaving the commons early next year so he can be his party’s candidate in next year’s election for the Police commissioner of Humberside where, of course, he is currently MP for Haltemprice and Howden.

These elections, which have hardly attracted any attention, are set to take place almost all over England next May and will each cover many parliamentary seats and involve huge electorates.

What’s clear is that successful candidates are going to need to have a high level of name recognition in the respective police force areas and my guess that a number of senior MPs, who now see their chances of preferment drifting, might be tempted to chuck their hats into the ring.

And could this open up a Tory by-election vacancy to provide the platform for Boris to return to the commons? I’d be surprised if the Mayor has not thought about it.

As for David Davis he’s no stranger to resigning as MP and forcing a by-election. He stood down in Haltemprice and Howden in 2008 as a protest against what he saw as Labour’s authoritarianism and then got re-elected. In 2005 he was hot odds-on favourite for the Tory leadership only to be beaten by David Cameron.