If the coalition is to end prematurely then it won’t be because the LDs quit. Clegg response.goo.gl/FRdUp twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 22, 2013

Tories are being told: There’ll be no supply & confidence

In a speech this morning Nick Clegg’s making it very clear that his party will not quit the coalition ahead of the general election.

So the blues factions who would like to see the arrangement ending prior to 2015 have got a problem. For Clegg is clearly not going to provide a supply and confidence arrangement should the Tories break the deal unilaterally.

As I have suggested before this means that the only way that the blues can get rid of the yellows is by risking an early general election. I don’t think that while Labour is ahead in the polls that that is going to happen.

The one alternative scenario I can envisage is Cameron being ditched as CON leader and his replacement, Hammond perhaps, getting a polling honeymoon.

If there was a change at the top then I think that that is likely. Whenever the Conservatives have booted out a leader they’ve had a boost in the polls.

The now loveless marriage has got another 23 months to go.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Yes

Eastleigh – the result twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 1, 2013

Latest Next LD leader odds from Ladbrokes bit.ly/c5gpH6 and Bet365 bit.ly/g4saCk twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013

Latest NIck Clegg specials betting with Ladbrokes. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013

How can they fail with all this happening to the LDs?

Terrible front pages for Nick Clegg this morning – 3 days before crucial #Eastleigh by-election twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013

The appalling coverage for the LDs raises the #Eastleigh stakes for the Tories. They surely HAVE to win now. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013

In the #Eastleigh betting LDs stable overnight but Ukip tightening. Table based on Betfair last trades. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2013

Ladbrokes make it a 6/4 chance that Clegg won’t be Lib Dem leader at the general election twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013

Inititial reaction to Clegg’s statement on #Eastleigh betting is for LD price to weaken & Tories to tighten twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013

13% of LAB voters in the Populus #Eastleigh poll said they didn’t even know who Nick Clegg was. When asked they said “never heard of him”

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2013

Nick Clegg tells LBC that he intends to be LD leader after #GE2015. Ladbrokes make him 1/3 FAV to hold Shef Hallam twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2013

The Ladbrokes Sheffield Hallam betting.bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2013

Nick Clegg’s net YouGov ratings at best point since March 2012. Now minus 45%. In Sept they were -63%. LBC effect? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

Today’s net -45% the best in getting of for a year

Piles of polling overnight including, as every Sunday morning, the YouGov leadership ratings. Cameron sees a net rise of 1 to minus 18%; Ed Miliband a net increase of 3 to minus 20% and Nick Clegg up 9 to minus 45%.

The Clegg boost follows, of course, the first of his highly publcised weekely phone-in rogrammes on LBC which have been described as a “masochism strategy”.

The latest voting intention number from YouGov have CON 31%: LAB 44%: LD 11%: UKIP 8% are also good news for the yellows with the party having been in double figure for three and a half weeks – the first time that has happened since 2010.

But that contrasts with Opinium for the Observer overnight which had the party at its lowest level ever 7%. The firm is the only online pollster that does not take any steps to ensure a politically balanced sample.

The other polling headlines:-

Full ComRes Euro elections figures -Lab 35% (+19 on 2009 vote), UKIP 23% (+6.5), Con 22% (-6), LD 8% (-6), Green 5% (-3)

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2013

Just 67% of UKIP voters in the ComRes/S People Euro election poll want full withdrawal

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

Overall support for complete withdrawal from the EU in the ComRes/People poll is 33% – down 4 from October 2012.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

Good for Dave?? By 57% to 24% CON voters tell ComRes they want to renegotiate relationship with the EU but not full withdrawal.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

The LDs drop to their lowest point yet with Opinium for the Observer while UKIP slip back 3.CON 31:LAB 41:LD 7:UKIP 12

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

So a very satisfactory set of figures for Labour – double digit leads in the Euro elections survey as well as the two Westminster voting intention ones.

LAB set to double 2009 vote share according to first 2014 Euro election poll. Ukip up but in 3rd place behind CON twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2013

Survation has UKIP up on 2009 but down to 3rd place

My chart shows the findings of the weekend’s Survation poll on the 2014 Euro elections and compares the vote shares from June 2009 when the elections were last held.

Then was very much a low point for the Brown government and the big issue was whether the red team would finish behind UKIP. They did with 15.7% of the GB vote which was the lowest ever recorded by a party of government in a UK-wide election. Farage’s UKIP came in second place on 16.5% which was just 0.3 points up on five years earlier.

With the dramatic Ukip polling surge that we’ve seen since the March 2012 budget there’s been a lot of talk, and even betting on, whether Farage’s party could finish up in first place. This latest poll suggests that they’ve got a long way to go.

At 21.5% Ukip is well up on 2009 but the survey suggests that it hasn’t yet met the expectations of many pundits. The poll suggests that the Tories are doing reasonably well holding on to 24.2% compared with their 27.7% four years ago.

The Lib Dems, who’ve seen a dramatic decline in their Westminster voting shares since 2010 were bracing themselves for a possible fifth place behind the Greens. Survation shows that they are down 3 from the 13.7% of 2009 but still well ahead of the Greens.

The biggest losers appear to be BNP. Interestingly the BNP-UKIP aggregate recorded by Survation is almost the same as the two parties achieved in 2009.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB