Archive for the 'Nick Clegg' Category

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The worry for Nick Clegg is if moves like this in Nottingham gather momentum

Monday, June 16th, 2014

At the moment the pressure is very limited

So far according to Lib Dem blogger, Stephen Tall, just five of the party’s branches have had formal meetings to discuss the leadership and only two, Nottingham and Ribble Valley, have voted in favour of a contest.

The three others – Cambridge, Southwark and Salisbury – voted against. In Cambridge and Southwark the LDs currently hold Westminster seats and will be trying to fight off challenges from Labour.

Under the party rules 75 branches have to decide that way in order for a contest to be triggered and that has to be done within a strict timescale.

Tall’s conclusion, which I agree with, is that there is nowhere near the level of momentum to set a formal process going.

“..I doubt there are even 75 local parties planning to hold a general meeting. And, based on the current split in results, it looks like around 150 would be having to plan to do so in order to get to the magic 75. As it stands, therefore, it seems highly likely Nick Clegg will remain as party leader...”

Whatever these developments are going to be an ongoing irritant which of themselves hurt the leadership.

My view is that the party’s polling position is going to be important. Tonight we should see the latest monthly survey from ICM – the firm that generally gives the yellows their best position. In May it had a 13% share which was two points above the post GE10 low for the party.

The other polling that we are expecting is the Ashcroft CON-LD battleground seats survey. If he handles this like he did with the LAB-CON marginals then we’ll see a series of 1,000 sample phone polls in a handful of key constituencies.

Ladbrokes have 2/1 on Clegg being replaced before G£15 and 1/3 that he won’t.

  • Coming up later: News about the PB Ilkley gathering three weeks from tonight. The plan is to gather from about 6.30pn in a town centre pub not far from the station.
  • Mike Smithson

    Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble for more than a decade




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    Lord Ashcroft’s promised CON-LD battleground polls could either take the pressure off Clegg or add to it

    Thursday, June 12th, 2014

    What’s going on in LD-held seats is critical

    The 6% share for the Lib Dems in today’s YouGov/Sun poll is the lowest the firm has reported since it began its online operation in 2001. The party was just 1% ahead of the Greens. While Opinium, which generally has the worse figures for the yellows has had them at this level before the latest finding will add to the discomfort in the party coming as it does after the appalling performance in the Euros on May 22nd.

    So far there’s been little pressure on Clegg himself. In fact he’s been rather helped by the cack-handed move by Lord Oakeshott at the end of last month with the revelation that he’d commissioned a series of ICM polls in key constituencies.

    The difference between those surveys and the Ashcroft approach is the adoption of the two stage question which we’ve discussed here before. After the standard “which party will you vote for” the Ashcroft structure is to ask a second question in which respondents are invited to focus on their own seats. The results have generally seen a big uplift.

    So the promised surveys from Lord Ashcroft “this month” could not be timed better. For if even with the helpful second question the LDs look set to lose a fair number of defences against the Tories then that will really knock the spirit out of the party.

      For the one thing that’s been keeping yellow hopes alive is the perception that things are different in their strongholds. If Ashcroft undermines that belief then who knows what will happen?

    Quite when this month the polls will appear I do not know.

    Mike Smithson

    Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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    Leaked private polling shows Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam and finishing third behind the Tories!

    Monday, May 26th, 2014

    If there’s one thing that gets people like us excited and interested is a leaked internal/private polling, especially ones conducted by ICM.

    The polling finds

    The electoral oblivion apparently confronting the Liberal Democrats as led by Nick Clegg was underscored on Monday by leaked opinion polls in four seats showing that the party will be wiped out.

    Commissioned by a Lib Dem supporter from ICM and subsequently passed to the Guardian, the polling indicates that the Lib Dem leader would forfeit his own Sheffield Hallam constituency at the next election.

    The party would also lose its seats in in Cambridge, Redcar and Wells, costing MPs Julian Huppert, Ian Swales and Tessa Munt Westminster seats.

    If the business secretary, Vince Cable, were to take over as leader, the Lib Dems would perform marginally better, the data suggests. Appointing Danny Alexander, the chief secretary, would give the party a more modest boost.

    The Guardian notes

    The polls undertaken in April and May are of all respondents expressing an intention to vote and are turnout weighted. It does not include some adjustments ICM uses for national polls. The polls also question the value of a personal-vote showing. Although Munt, Swales and Huppert have positive ratings for a good job by their constituents, fewer than half recognise them.

    One of the things that has made ICM the gold standard of UK polling is their adjustments, such as their spiral of silence adjustment, so it’s not quite the usual ICM poll we’ve come to know.

    I would caution PBers before betting based on these polls/articles until we see the full data tables, although we may never do so, as these are private polls, never meant for public consumption, so as I understand, ICM are under no obligation to publish them.

    But you can get 7/1 on Labour taking Sheffield Hallam, but IIRC, the Lib Dems on Thursday’s council elections, won the wards that make up Sheffield Hallam, I won’t be taking up this bet.

    TSE

     



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    Looks like the knives are out for Clegg

    Sunday, May 25th, 2014

    The Independent on Sunday and others are reporting

    “The Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, faces a showdown with Liberal Democrat MPs who are demanding that he consider his position as party leader in the wake of the disastrous European and local election results. A block of unnamed MPs are poised to demand his resignation, according to party sources, paving the way for the Business Secretary, Vince Cable, a possible “unity candidate”, to take over in a “coronation” before next year’s general election. Some are considering going public within days over their demands before the state opening of Parliament on 4 June..”

    Meanwhile the Sunday Times reports (££)

    “..For the first time two Liberal Democrat MPs broke cover last night to demand Nick Clegg’s resignation as the party leader, saying his presence is condemning it to “a slow form of party suicide”. John Pugh, the MP for Southport, compared Clegg and his inner circle to “generals at the Somme”, condemning 300 councillors to die at the hands of the electorate last week. Pugh said 12 fellow MPs share his views. He added: “It does not follow that because the captain should go down with the ship, that the ship has to go down with the captain.” Adrian Sanders, the Lib Dem MP for Torbay, said the leadership issue must be examined as part of the election post-mortem examination: “The problem is the messenger. I have found few people saying it’s the message…”

    After the fourth consecutive electoral cycle in which the Lib Dem council base has been hammered, regular poor poll showings, the possibility of  finishing behind the Greens today, to go with finishing behind the Bus Pass Elvis Party in council election by-elections,  and no improvement in the polls, unlike their coalition allies, such manoeuvres by the Lib Dems are not unexpected.

    Crucially, Rallings and Thrasher have published their national equivalent share of the vote, and for the Lib Dems it is 11%, which is the lowest the party has recorded at local elections since Rallings And Thrasher records began in 1979.

    You can get 2/1 that Nick Clegg that Nick Clegg won’t be Lib Dem leader at the next General Election and 1/3 he will. I’ve had as much as Paddy Power will allow me, which is £4.07 on him not being the Lib Dem leader at the next General Election.

    There are a couple of markets on the next Lib Dem Leader and the Lib Dem Leader at the next General Election, I’m not sure there’s much value in these right now, but PBers may find some value. Will the defenestration of Nick Clegg lead to an early end of the coalition?

    TSE

    Overnight there were some interesting polling and analysis out


     



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    The post Nick v Nigel debate reaction

    Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

    The YouGov poll on who won the debate is out.

     

    My own feeling is that the real loser from tonight is David Cameron and The Tories, today and next week, Nigel Farage has been given one hour to hoover up the Euro-sceptic vote.

    I’ll update this thread if further polling is released.

    TSE



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    EU referendum poll blow for Farage only hours before the TV clash with Clegg

    Wednesday, March 26th, 2014



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    Labour’s “Get Clegg” decapitation strategy fails to impress punters. He remains an 80pc chance to retain Hallam

    Sunday, February 23rd, 2014

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    So Nick versus Nigel is on but it should be on national TV not LBC

    Friday, February 21st, 2014

    Ladbrokes open debate betting to be settled on a voodoo poll!!

    Well done to Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage for agreeing to a debate ahead of the European elections. This will certainly add fizz to the Euro Elections and could boost turnout beyond the 35% of last time.

    Given Nick Clegg’s position and his party’s numbers in the polls the challenge was a smart move and will help the LDs in its efforts to position itself as the party of IN.

    For Farage this is also a bonus and he’s been right to seize on it. Battling against the leader with the worst personal ratings should present him with plenty of opportunities.

      Isabel Hardman in the Speccie has this right: “Farage and Clegg are pitching to completely different voters, so both will come away from the debate feeling as though they’ve got what they wanted from it.”

    There’s already talk that even Eurosceptic Tory ministers will be cheering Clegg on in the hope that he’ll be able to burst the UKIP balloon.

    Inevitably LBC has tried to take ownership of the debate given that Clegg proposed it and Farage accepted while broadcasting on the London news station. But that is a poor platform and will diminish the event. It needs to be on national TV.

    Meanwhile Ladbrokes are offering 5/6 on both Farage and Clegg winning the debate – this to be deduced from the LBS “poll” afterwards. Having a market is fine – using a voodoo poll as the settlement mechanism is utter garbage. Ladbrokes can do better.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble