Archive for the 'Middle East' Category

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Syria: Whose Mandate?

Saturday, September 7th, 2013

(Flag of Syria under French Mandate – From Wikimedia Commons)

Imperial echoes in the Middle East

Much of the debate surrounding potential military action in Syria has focussed on two aspects: what effect would such action have, and would it be lawful as things stand. In a sense, the two are linked in an unusual way. The normal reasons for intervening militarily are for one government to force a change of policy upon another, or to impose a settlement on an area.

Although there’s been some talk about deterring Assad from authorising further chemical attacks through air- or missile-strikes, those same politicians have been much quieter about they envisage such action affecting the situation on the ground.

And not without reason: Syria’s civil war is one that Western governments are keen to see end but distinctly less enthusiastic about seeing either side win. Changing the situation on the ground by striking against the Assad’s forces not only makes it more likely that his opponents will end up victorious but makes those governments involved partly responsible for the outcome – which could place some highly unsavoury characters in power.

Hence the attempt to raise the level of debate from that of power to one of justice, where the air-strikes aren’t about intervention but punishment for a crime against humanity (ignoring the fact that whatever the justification, the effect will be the same). Under such thinking, the strikes cease to come from an active participant but from a higher authority, concerned with means rather than ends.

The problem with that is that those who would see themselves in such a role are self-appointed. There is no United Nations backing for air strikes (indeed, the Security Council hasn’t been able to pass any resolution on Syria for over a year), nor are states enforcing the verdict of some international court.

The argument advanced is that the action is justified by the Duty to Protect, though it’s dubious just how far citizens will be protected by the lobbing of even more explosive into the country. There is also rather a biting irony of states wishing to impose a quasi-judicial sanction on a regime, while quite possibly acting outside the law in doing do.

Not that outside intervention is a new thing to Syria. From its incorporation into the Roman Empire by Pompey in 64BC, that part of the Middle East spent almost all of the next two millenia under the sway of one imperial power or another based far from Damascus. Most recently, after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, it was a French League of Nations mandate.

One has to wonder whether that has anything to do with the current French government’s keenness to be involved. Ten years ago it was the British government participating in a war in its former Middle East mandate next door, so whether by chance or design there’s a pattern there and one which is unlikely to have gone unnoticed within the region.

David Herdson

 

Thanks to Double Carpet, you can view the results of the Australian election, live, here



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CON and UKIP voters are becoming more supportive of missile attacks on Syria – LAB and LD ones more hostile

Wednesday, September 4th, 2013

This is looking more partisan

The above chart has been produced by taking the party splits on the Syrian missile issue and comparing them with the data from a week yesterday.

As can be seen the net support/oppose numbers have overall moved more towards the latter. But both CON and UKIP voters have become more supportive of the proposal. The latter is in a manner that appears at odds with Farage’s high profile anti-position.

Labour voters have moved sharply to the oppose camp while the Lib Dems have seen the biggest movement in that direction. This is odd given the high level hawkish position of ex-leader Paddy Ashdown and the supportive role of Nick Clegg.

My reading of the CON movement is that it reflects the attacks on EdM that we’ve seen from many quarters

Given that we are just about to enter conference season I wonder how all this will play out.

Mike Smithson



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Betting on Will There Be Another Government Sponsored Commons Vote On Military Intervention In Syria By Year End?

Tuesday, September 3rd, 2013

Paddy Power have launched a market on Will There Be Another Government Sponsored Commons Vote On Military Intervention In Syria By Year End?

 

David Cameron said today ‘Parliament spoke very clearly and it’s important to respect the view of parliament so I’m not planning to return to parliament to ask again about British military action.’

Nick Clegg has said ”could not foresee any circumstances” in which the government would ask MPs to vote again, following their rejection of the PM’s proposal for military action last Thursday.

The Spectator on  a second vote say, David Cameron would therefore need the assurance not just of Miliband’s support for the motion, but of a three-line whip for his party. Which is why the vote won’t happen

If you’re cynical about politicians being truthful or think the situation in Syria will deteriorate and UK involvement is inevitable , you’ll take the 5/1, if you’d like a 10% return in less than four months, you’d take the no option.

I wonder if the vote in America will have an impact?

TSE



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ComRes Phone Poll Out

Monday, September 2nd, 2013

Labour increases its lead, from three points to six points.

 

 

The fieldwork dates were between Friday the 30th August and Sunday the 1st September 2013, ComRes interviewed 1,000 British adults by telephone, so all post the Government defeat on Syria.

Other salient points from the poll

  • This is another poll showing Labour’s share of the vote in the 36%-40% range.
  • For the first time since December 2012 the Lib Dems are ahead of UKIP in a ComRes phone poll.
  • As with the YouGov for the Sunday Times, the Tory share of the vote has fallen, but within the margin of the error, but here, Labour haven’t been the recipient of the declining Tory share of the vote, and nor have UKIP.

 

The supplementaries on Syria.

 

Agree

Disagree

Don’t know

Net

Any military strikes against Syria should be first sanctioned by the United Nations

80%

15%

5%

+65

The experience of the Iraq war means that Britain should keep out of any military conflicts in the Middle East for the foreseeable future

62%

31%

8%

+31

David Cameron showed that he is out of touch with Britain in his handling of the Syria crisis

54%

34%

13%

+20

The United States, without Britain, should launch military air strikes on Syria to deter it from using chemical weapons in future

29%

57%

14%

-28

 

TSE



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Corporeal asks: Was this the best possible political result for David Cameron?

Saturday, August 31st, 2013

 

Government defeats in House of Commons vote are usually a blow to the sitting Prime Minister, leaving a scar of weakness, and requiring a scramble to reformulate policy to account for the set-back and fill the gap left by the defeated motion. A coalition government adds another level of questions about what this means in terms of unity.

In this case however, I wonder if David Cameron will benefit from losing this vote far more than if he’d managed to push it through. For a start military involvement is currently unpopular, really unpopular,the shadow of Afghanistan and Iraq (whether justified comparisons or not) hang heavily over them in the public consciousness.

So Cameron has been dragged out of what is currently an unpopular move, but is also immune to criticism from those supporting military intervention. Of course he is still open to criticism from those opposing military intervention, but I’d suggest that criticism for wanting to do something but not actually doing it is the form of criticism that sticks the least. People always focus more on what was done than what was talked about but never happened.

He still controls the timetable on the issue; the government’s defeat puts the issue into a siding for the time being with their being no impetus for Cameron to make a move other than declare that he has to respect the will of the house. But at the same time he is always able to put another vote before the house and seek a second vote if he thinks things have shifted to allow him to win it.

Had he won the vote, or even if he’d gained near unanimous support in Parliament then the resulting action would still have been owned by Cameron (and to an extent Clegg) much more than Miliband and Labour however much in agreement they were. Owning such an unpopular policy is a case of major political bravery (with the dual implications that term brings).

If public opinion (and a majority of MPs) continues to oppose military intervention then Cameron can continue to respect the will of the house and limit the damage he faces from the interventionist stance. If these shift in response to UN reports, news media pictures, or any other factors then he has the ability to go back for a second vote while pointing out it was his position all along.

Defeat has forced David Cameron into limbo on Syria, but the flexibility that brings with it means it’s not a bad political position for him to be in.

(N.B. This is all obviously a separate calculation to what is best for the Syrian situation and the Syrian people).

Corporeal



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After the Syria Vote: What happens next in the UK

Friday, August 30th, 2013

Looking at those front pages, it doesn’t make for pleasant reading for David Cameron today.

As Janan Ganesh writes

Defeat in Thursday night’s parliamentary vote on the principle of military action in Syria is not an existential wound for David Cameron, whatever his more excitable enemies say. But, after several months of good form, the prime minister looks weaker than at any time since taking office more than three years ago. Failing to win over Liberal Democrat MPs in his coalition government is one thing. Being defied by his own Tories is quite another. Prime ministers are simply not supposed to lose House of Commons votes on major matters of foreign policy.

The main losers (from the Conservative party) from last night, apart from Dave, are

1)       Sir George Young – Last night was not a good night for the Whips office as they failed to spot the size of the rebellion, and as Chief Whip he will have to take the blame for the worst bit of whipping since Hilary Armstrong lost Tony Blair a crucial vote despite having a notional majority on hand within the Palace of Westminster,  a new Chief Whip seems likely in the reshuffle

2)      Justine Greening – She missed the vote, and was nearly reshuffled out of the cabinet last time, her actions won’t endear her further to David Cameron, she’s 7/1  as next out, in a reshuffle the dead heat rules apply

3)      Michael Gove leadership ambitions, such as they were, took a hit when he yelled “You’re a disgrace” to Tory MPs who voted against the Government. Michael, remember those are the people who are going to vote in the Leadership election you’re planning to stand in. His wife’s tweets didn’t help the situation either.

4)      William Hague, has seen his odds tumble as next out of the cabinet from 20/1 yesterday to 6/1 now, which makes him the new favourite, a sign of his poor performance in convincing the parliamentary party to back his and the PM’s approach to Syria. He’s now unlikely to be the next Tory Leader if Dave fell under a bus as I and others have speculated in the past.

A few months ago, it was reported that Conservative rebels had the 46 signatures to trigger a vote of no confidence in David Cameron, but were biding their time.

For the anti-Cameroon wing of the Tory party, this maybe the optimal time to strike against a weakened Cameron. His authority is diminished, and like virginity, once authority is gone, it is very hard to get it back.

The last two Conservative leaders to be deposed, Margaret Thatcher and IDS were both deposed weeks after the Tory Party Conference.

Clegg is aware how dangerous conference can be for a Lib Dem leader as Sir Menzies Campbell (and his wife will confirm)

Given that the Lib Dem Party President, Tim Farron abstained on the vote last night, is he on manoeuvres? The price has tightened on Tim Farron leading LDs at 2015 General Election from 6/1 to 5/1

Nigel Farage has also had a good non-war. He can point out whilst the other three parties have at various stages not ruled military action, he could gain support from those conservatives who were opposed to military action in Syria, UKIP’s decline in the polls since May could be reversed now.

The SNP/Yes to Scottish Independence side could have taken a minor blow as well last night, as they’ve said in the past, one of the most compelling reasons for Scottish independence is that we will never again have a UK Government take us into an illegal war that we want nothing whatever to do with.

Last night’s vote proved it is possible to be part of the Union and still not be involved in “illegal wars that we want nothing whatever to do with.”

For Ed Miliband there are a lot of positives, he has turned the weak meme around 180 degrees and it is David Cameron that now looks weak, and Ed has also helped deal with Labour’s legacy on Iraq.

There are risks for Ed Miliband as well, as Antifrank posted on the previous thread

Last night’s vote was a crushing blow to David Cameron’s authority. He’s seriously weakened as a result.

But Ed Miliband needs to pray that the Syrian government doesn’t commit any more atrocities. Because David Cameron is going to lay them all at his door from now on.

Politicians are at their most vulnerable when they aren’t in control of events, and Ed Miliband is relying on President Assad and the Syrian Government not to commit any more atrocities. That is not the ideal situation for Ed or Labour.

But there’s one other thing that needs to be considered, we could still partake in military action against Syria….

 

TSE

 

 



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Syria – How it will impact domestic politics

Thursday, August 29th, 2013

There was some polling released overnight by YouGov for The Times

 

 

Despite overwhelming opposition to missile strikes in Syria, David Cameron’s personal ratings can give him some comfort.

 


 

Going forward, I would caution reading too much into polling changes over the next few days and weeks, particularly if they’re sub margin of error, plus if there is Western intervention in Syria, with UK participation, there could be a boost for the Government and David Cameron’s personal ratings, in the past, there have been on occasions short term boosts for the Government and Prime Minister, as nation rallies behind them in a time of war.

It could well be, military action begins and continues during the party conference season which starts in just over a fortnight, which has also seen short term poll movements.

For me, one of the most interesting aspects of the whole Syria story has been Labour’s approach, which has earned them praise and has earned David Cameron opprobrium.

Nick Clegg has also taken the opportunity to carve out a different position for the Lib Dems and past Lib Dem glories

UKIP seem intent on hovering up the anti-war vote.

But back to Dave and Ed, Parliament is back at 2.30pm today, and it could be entertaining viewing between those two, judging by the comments reported in the Times last night.

 

UPDATE – Paddy Power put up a market whether Labour’s Motion will pass or not

TSE



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On an amazing morning my choice for the biggest story…

Sunday, September 4th, 2011

What’ll be the impact of Labour’s Libyan links?

We are spoilt for choice this Sunday morning with an amazing array of dramatic political stories including the Alastair Darling revelations in the Sunday Times and the Sunday Telegraph splashing plans to disband the Conservative party in Scotland.

But the biggest must surely be the Mail on Sunday’s revelations of what is contained in a stash of documents and letters found in the British Ambassador’s residence in Tripoli.

Read it here.

The Telegraph on the Scottish Tories is here while the Darling revelations are behind the paywall at the Sunday Times.

@MikeSmithsonPB