Michael Gove’s claims about plots to overthrow Clegg haven’t impacted on the betting.Tim Farron still 5/2 favourite twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2013

He had a good Reynard-gate and Vote2013 aftermath

After Michael Gove’s little mischief yesterday in which he talked of a plot to oust Nick Clegg it is probably a good moment to look at the Lib Dem succession.

The electoral process involves the party’s MPs making the nomination but the decision being down to a postal ballot of the members.

There was a lot of talk last year about Vince Cable and if there had been a vacancy in 2012 then he’d have stood a good chance. But there wasn’t and things move on.

I’m not sure that Vince, now 70, would run. He’d have made a good care-taker with another contest taking place after the general election.

In the past I’ve been sceptical of Tim Farron’s chances because he’s not a minister. Now I think that’s less important and he’d be the one most likely to garner support from the membership.

As party President he’s been very much the public face and has earned the respect of many for the blunt and straightforward way he handled the Reynard case and the recent local elections.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

If the circumstances required would they go with the winner on votes or seats?

Prior to the last general election, Nick Clegg stated that in the event of a hung parliament, “the party which has got the strongest mandate from the British people will have the first right to seek to govern … the votes of the British people are what should determine what happens afterwards.  Whichever party have the strongest mandate from the British people … have the first right to seek to try and govern.”  The consequence, as we all know, was that Clegg sought and formed a coalition with the Conservatives.

There was, of course, some wriggle-room in his statement: the right to try or seek to govern is not a carte blanche.  Even so, with the Conservatives winning most seats, most MPs, most MPs in England (where much Westminster legislation only applies), and gaining a very significant number of seats, it would have taken the turning of semantic cartwheels for Clegg to have backed Labour.

That might not have mattered in the heady days of the Rose Garden press conference when all was smiles.  A lot has passed since.  One thing that has not changed, however, is the underlying electoral maths and this provides a problem for left-leaning Lib Dems.

As Mike has frequently pointed out, the Conservatives need a far larger national lead over Labour to form a majority government than is the case the other way round.  It therefore follows that if there is a hung parliament, it is highly likely that the Conservatives will have won most votes.  For a party wedded on principle to PR (even if these days it might adversely affect them), that’s a powerful element of the parties’ respective mandates.

Of course, other elements of the mandate may not be so strong: in all probability, a hung parliament would imply the Tories had lost seats and Labour gained them; the Reds might have more seats in total.

  Even so, the inevitable consequence of the Tories having a harder job of winning outright than Labour is that in the event of a hung parliament, the Blues are likely to have the stronger mandate.

So are we underestimating the chances of a second Con-Lib coalition?  There are many in both parties who would prefer to avoid it but the logic that led to the first would still apply: in a hung parliament, the larger party should prefer the certainty of coalition to the risk of being brought down at a time of maximum opposition benefit.  Whether the smaller would prefer the influence of office or of case-by-case negotiation might be more open to question so is there a third option?

There may be.  The third option would be for the Lib Dems to back Labour if that’s a viable alternative, whatever the national vote shares.  To do so, however, would require Clegg or his successor not to box his party in beforehand, as happened last time.

David Herdson

A few days ago, Simon Hughes speaking in the Financial Times, about potential future coalition negotiations in 2015, said

“If the time did come for more coalition negotiations, the experience of coalition the first time will be clearly taken on board when we think through what we would do a second time.

“The constitutional reform agenda and particularly reform of the Lords would have to be a part of the package.”

Now a hung parliament is a possibility, especially if the polls continue to narrow as has ICM recently. I wonder if the price for a referendum on Europe for the Tories will be to allow House of Lords reform and a referendum on the electoral system, such as STV?

In the event of a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, Labour might be inclined to acquiesce to the Liberal Democrat plans for electoral reform, especially if Scotland votes for Independence in September 2014, as England in the last two general election, a plurality have voted Tory, there maybe a desire on the centre-left for a realignment in the remainder of the UK once Scotland has departed, and taken away fifty two Labour and Lib Dem MPs.

In the event of a Labour majority, that would be wiped by the departure of Scottish MPs, Labour may also offer a referendum on the electoral process, we could be potentially a couple of years away from Electoral reform.

Paddy Power have a market up on electoral reform

Applies to the ‘first past the post’ system in us for Westminster parliamentary elections being amended to allow more proportional representation. Must be passed and effective before the first day of 2021.

TSE

Paul Goodman & Mike Smithson slug it out on Twitter

The @paulgoodmanch call for the Tories to end coalition in Sept 2014. goo.gl/1X8bz twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 3, 2013

@msmithsonpb Suppose neither of us will be around to see the play in 2053 – about the shambles of the Coalition’s last 6 months…

— Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) April 3, 2013

@msmithsonpb In both party’s interests to end Coalition before April 2015 – and not in Miliband’s to accept a poisoned chalice.

— Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) April 3, 2013

Cracking result in Runnymead DC, Chris Browne of @ukip pick up Foxhills District Council seat, by 18 votes overturning a 23% Tory Majority

— Gawain Towler (@GawainTowler) March 15, 2013

#LibDem destroy a 1000 Tory majority to take the #Arun district Aldwick east seat in today’s by election for the first time @libdemnews

— Cllr. Jamie Bennett (@JamieBen120689) March 15, 2013

Could May’s county elections could be a bloodbath?

After yesterday’s dreadful national polls for the Conservatives there’s news overnight of two serious setbacks for the party in southern England in the only two by elections that they were defending.

We’ll have to wait for the councils to publish the detailed results but from the Tweets above the outcomes look pretty bleak for Cameron’s party.

In both wards in district councils in Surrey and West Sussex the party appears to have taken a hammering.

The last time the Foxhills ward in Runnymede was contested the result was Con 581 (47%) UKIP 284 (23%) Lab 274 (22%) Lib Dem 107 (9%). That has now gone Ukip.

In 2011 the Aldwick ward on Arun DC went Con 64%: Lib Dem 16%: UKIP 7%: Ind 7%: Lab 7. This is now Lib Dem.

These by-elections come just six weeks before this year’s local elections when the Tories are defending twice as many seats as Labour and the Lib Dems combined.

Update – confirmed results

Aldwick, Arun DC LD 383, CON 357, Ukip 339, LAB61. Lib Dem gain

Foxhills,Runnymead DC: UKIP 336, Con 318, Lab 181. Ukip gain

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

A pointer to tomorrow’s big by-election?

The day before #Eastleigh – pie chart with latest YouGov daily poll twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2013

How #Rennardgate is impacting on the Lib Dem shares in YouGov daily poll twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2013

Latest Next LD leader odds from Ladbrokes bit.ly/c5gpH6 and Bet365 bit.ly/g4saCk twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013

Latest NIck Clegg specials betting with Ladbrokes. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013