Nice chart from Ipsos-MORI showing the fortunes of the leaders since Jun 2010. Cameron is down nearly as much as Clegg twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 31, 2013

After the worst figures for 23 yrs from MORI yesterday Clegg & LDs see their best numbers with YouGov since Nov 2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2013

Update: Labour lead at 9 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 16th Jan – CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 12%, UKIP 8%; APP -28 y-g.co/10c9rhJ

— YouGov (@YouGov) January 17, 2013

Cameron extends lead over EdM to 10% in YouGov’s best PM rating. He’s 33, EdM 23(-2), Clegg 7 (+2)

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2013

Clegg’s 7% YouGov “best PM” rating is his best since before the tuition fee vote in Nov 2010

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2013

Is he getting the benefit of the boundaries veto?

Interesting developments in the polling over the past two days. The latest YouGov sees the LDs move to 12% – a figure that has only been seen twice before since 2010. This is even more extraordinary given yesterday’s Ipsos-MORI poll which had the party’s vote share at its lowest point since 1990.

Nick Clegg’s personal ratings with MORI, though still dire, saw a 9 point uplift on December.

Today’s YouGov “best PM” ratings see Cameron’s lead over Miliband move up 2 to 10%. At the same time the Clegg “best PM” rating edges up 2 to 7% – the highest level since 2010.

If the LDs are making a bit of a recovery then the beneficiary might be Cameron. The Tories need the LD vote to remain buoyant in the CON-LAB battlegrounds.

Mike Smithson

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Nick Clegg’s net YouGov ratings at best point since March 2012. Now minus 45%. In Sept they were -63%. LBC effect? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

Today’s net -45% the best in getting of for a year

Piles of polling overnight including, as every Sunday morning, the YouGov leadership ratings. Cameron sees a net rise of 1 to minus 18%; Ed Miliband a net increase of 3 to minus 20% and Nick Clegg up 9 to minus 45%.

The Clegg boost follows, of course, the first of his highly publcised weekely phone-in rogrammes on LBC which have been described as a “masochism strategy”.

The latest voting intention number from YouGov have CON 31%: LAB 44%: LD 11%: UKIP 8% are also good news for the yellows with the party having been in double figure for three and a half weeks – the first time that has happened since 2010.

But that contrasts with Opinium for the Observer overnight which had the party at its lowest level ever 7%. The firm is the only online pollster that does not take any steps to ensure a politically balanced sample.

The other polling headlines:-

Full ComRes Euro elections figures -Lab 35% (+19 on 2009 vote), UKIP 23% (+6.5), Con 22% (-6), LD 8% (-6), Green 5% (-3)

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 12, 2013

Just 67% of UKIP voters in the ComRes/S People Euro election poll want full withdrawal

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

Overall support for complete withdrawal from the EU in the ComRes/People poll is 33% – down 4 from October 2012.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

Good for Dave?? By 57% to 24% CON voters tell ComRes they want to renegotiate relationship with the EU but not full withdrawal.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

The LDs drop to their lowest point yet with Opinium for the Observer while UKIP slip back 3.CON 31:LAB 41:LD 7:UKIP 12

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 13, 2013

So a very satisfactory set of figures for Labour – double digit leads in the Euro elections survey as well as the two Westminster voting intention ones.

Tracking 2010 Lib Dem voters – the ones most likely to move. Chart showing their views of Dave & Ed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2012

Today marks the start of a new project on the site – keeping a close eye on those voters most likely to switch at the general election, the 2010 Lib Dems.

My intention is to track and highlight relevant polling data for the group because they probably hold the key to the general election outcome. Thus if, as is happening at the moment, they are moving disproportionately to Labour then it is going to make the Tory task even harder.

Things can, of course, change hence the need to track.

Rather than featuring voting intention numbers I’m going to focus on other measures which I regard as an equal or even better guide to electoral outcomes. Today we see the breakdown of 2010 Lib Dems on the Ipsos-MORI leadership ratings.

There is a danger of looking at sub-sets in polls because, inevitably, the margin of error is higher the smaller the total. To counteract that I am only going to highlight specific findings provided they are broadly in line with other polling.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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The press ain’t wot it used to be. Look at these declining circulation numbers. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012

EdM re-takes the lead in YouGov’s leader ratings

Cameron slips back in YouGov’s leadership ratings and EdM is back ahead twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012

Mike Smithson

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But all three leaders see ratings improvements

New Ipsos-MORI telephone pollhas CON 32 (-1); LAB 46 (+3); LD (nc). So LAB takes a 14% lead

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2012

The details from the latest MORI poll showing how all 3 leaders have seen marked net increases twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 15, 2012

Unlike cheapie online polls I regard the four phone surveys that we get each month as an event. The one out today is from Ipsos-MORI and shows Labour up to their highest level with the firm since the 2001-2005 parliament.

This pollster, it should be recalled, uses only those 100% certain to vote in its headline figures.

The firm also has its leadership ratings which have been asked in the same way since before Maggie Thatcher’s victory in 1979.

The latest breakdown are above and show all three party leaders moving forward.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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Good chart from Ipsos-MORI showing how satisfaction with all leaders is on the decline with Clegg the worst. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012

As ever with the monthly Ipsos-MORI political monitor there’s a mass of data and colourful charts one of which is featured above.

Also this moth the firm asked, for the first time since January 2011, the “Like him, like his party” question.

We haven’t got the full detail but several bullet points are available from an article in Lonodn’s freebie newspaper, the Standard.

Ipsos-MORI: Since Jan ’11 the proportion disliking Dave has jumped from 46 to 54%, while those liking him have fallen from 47% to 41%.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012

Ipsos-MORI: Dave is much more popular than his party. Only 35% like the Tories, while 60% dislike.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012

Ipsos-MORI: EdMis markedly less popular than his party.Just 37% say theylike him compared 51% who like the Labour Party.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012

Ipsos-MORI. Proportion who dislike Nick Clegg up from 51% to 63% since Jan ’11 while those liking him is down from 40 to 29%.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012

Ipsos-MORI: Good news for the LDs. They are more liked (40%) & less disliked (52%) than Tories, which have 35% like & 60% dislike.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012

Mike Smithson

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Tweet

EdM moves to within just 4% of Dave as “best PM” – his best ever position on this measure from YouGov

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 4, 2012

.At the start of 2012 Cameron led Miliband by 41% to 17% in YouGov’s best PM ratings. Today that’s 31% to 27%

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 4, 2012

The Labour “don’t knows” are starting to support Ed

We’ve now got the first “who would make the best Prime Minister” ratings from YouGov since Ed Miliband’s conference speech on Tuesday and as expected the Labour leader makes progress narrowing the gap behind Dave to just 4%. This is the closest it’s been.

What’s drives these numbers more than anything else is the proportion of a a party’s own voters who say their man is best. Thus a month ago 93% of Tories backed Dave but only 53% of Labour voters supported Ed on this measure.

In today’s findings Dave is on 94% with his own voters while Ed has moved to 64% with Labour voters.

So the conference objective of getting the Labour movement more behind its leader seems to be working – though this is still “work in progress”.

Unlike Cameron who has virtually maxed out support amongs his own party supporters EdM has a fair bit of scope still to edge upwards.

The latest YouGov voting intention figures have CON 31%: LAB 45%: LD 10%: UKIP 7% which looks a lot better from the red team’s perspective than that margin of just 5% from the pollster at the weekend.

Inevitably, as we usually see, the party whose conference has been on last gets a boost. Next week the Tories gather in Birmingham without, you won’t be surprised, their new Chief Whip, Andrew Mitchell. If the pattern of this conference season is repeated then Dave’s team will make some progress.

Mike Smithson

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