Archive for the 'Leader approval ratings' Category

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This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents

Monday, December 21st, 2015

Why Opinium’s switched from approval ratings to favourability

If leader ratings really are the best electoral pointer then CON looks set to be in power until at least May 2025

From where I stand there are two ways that Corbyn could be brought down. The first is a growing realisation from polling and elections results that the Tories are a certainty for GE2020 and that the red team will be out of power till at least 2025. Nearly ten years is an awful long time.

The second is if the Corbyn clan do something that is so alienating to the mainstream of the party’s MPs that they say “up with this we will not put any longer”. Maybe doing something like admitting George Galloway back into the party, which is being discussed at the moment, could provide a trigger.

On the polling we are seeing an extra focus on leader ratings where Corbyn is doing particularly badly. Normally the first 100 days is a sort of honeymoon for a new leader. Not so with Corbyn who has seen some terrible numbers. This won’t be helped by Opinium’s decision to poll on leader favourability – a form that shows the new man in the worst light.

The firm’s Adam Drummond’s comment above is very telling about why this format is probably better in getting a proper sense of what opinion is.

I still think that Corbyn will survive. Inertia is a very powerful force particularly in the Labour Party.

Mike Smithson





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The pre-Xmas polling rush continues with poor Corbyn Ipsos MORI ratings but LAB now just 4% behind CON with ComRes

Thursday, December 17th, 2015



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Happy tenth anniversary David

Sunday, December 6th, 2015

Today is the tenth anniversary of David Cameron’s election as Conservative Leader, and what a ten years it has been. The above chart neatly encapsulates why David Cameron is seen as the Conservative Party’s strongest asset, for around 70% of his tenure, he has led his Labour opponent on this front. With Cameron not standing again, Labour might have a chance of winning the 2020 general election. We saw in May, under First Past the Post, a popular, competent leader can make all the difference.

In these ten years, we saw the first peacetime coalition in seventy years, Scotland nearly seceding from The Union, the rise of UKIP, the possibility of the UK’s exit from the EU. In that time, Cameron has faced a lot of leaders*, taking on, for Labour: Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Harriet Harman, Ed Miliband, Harriet Harman and Jeremy Corbyn**.

For the Liberal Democrats: Charles Kennedy, Vince Cable, Sir Menzies Campbell, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

For UKIP: Roger Knapman, Nigel Farage, Lord Pearson, Jeffrey Titford, Nigel Farage and Suzanne Evans.

For the SNP: Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon.

I think one of Cameron’s ‘greatest’ achievements in his first ten years, was his failure to win a majority in 2010, which led to a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, which turned out be disastrous for the Liberal Democrats. In hindsight the Liberal Democrats might be more upset at Cameron’s failure to win a majority in 2010 than most Conservatives were in 2010.

TSE

*I’ve included acting leaders.

**Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, I still struggle to comprehend that, and I don’t think I ever will



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The Great Corbyn leader rating divide

Sunday, November 22nd, 2015

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How GE15 CON voters react differently depending on the question format

With question marks still hanging over voting intention polling there’s been a lot more focus on leader ratings which seemed to have performed far better as voting indicators at GE2015.

But here’s a thing. Over the past five days we’ve seen three completely different pictures of how Mr Corbyn is doing from three of the UK’s leading pollsters. Just look at the chart above.

With Ipsos-MORI things are not going too badly for the new red team captain. YouGov has him a fair bit lower and right at the bottom is ComRes.

The reason is that the three pollsters ask very different questions. For forty years Ipsos-MORI has used the satisfied/dissatisfied question. YouGov’s main measure for more than a decade had been on “well/badly” while in the 2010-2015 parliament ComRes, partly at my suggestion, switched to asking about favourability.

The latter has become almost the standard format in the US and I became convinced it was the right approach while writing on White House Race polling in 2012 for the Daily Telegraph. My view is that it gives a better view of electoral outcomes.

In the chart I’ve shown the responses of Tory general election voters to Mr Corbyn and as can be seen there’s a massive difference from the three pollsters. Ipsos had 28% of the Tories saying they were satisfied with the LAB leader while ComRes had just 5% viewing him favourably.

Given how the new LAB leadership has been working out you can understand why many CON backers are satisfied. Looking on him in favourability terms is, however, a totally different matter.

Mike Smithson





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CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings

Saturday, November 21st, 2015

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VOTING INTENTION
Con 42% (NC)
Lab 27% (-2)
LD 7% (NC)
UKIP 15% (+2)
Green 3% (NC)
SNP 5% (NC)
Other 1% (NC)

And Osbo’s leadership hopes take another blow

The ComRes leader ratings paint a very different picture from that which we saw from Ipsos earlier in the week. This is down to the question. ComRes ask favourability questions while the Ipsos-MORI rating relates to leader satisfaction. The latter found 28% of 2015 CON voters saying they are satisfied with Corbyn – a number which is very telling in itself.

George Osborne has the second worst rating of a UK politician at a net minus 19%. If his hopes of replacing Dave are to be realised then those figures have to improve markedly. Boris continues to dominate.

Only half of Labour voters view Jeremy Corbyn favourably (53%) – this compares to 85% of Conservative voters viewing David Cameron favourably.

40% say LAB MPs should oust Corbyn

What could be worrying is that when asked “Labour MPs should remove Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party” 40% of those sampled said yes with 31% disagreeing, Of LAB voters 20% say their leader of just ten weeks should be ousted against 56% who say he shouldn’t.

The sample was split 39-39 on whether they trusted Dave to keep them and their family safe. This was in sharp contrast to Corbyn where only 17% said they trusted him on this and 58% said they didn’t.

Overall a very poor poll for LAB and its new leader.

Mike Smithson





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Corbyn slumps to new YouGov leader ratings low while latest Survation #EUREF polling has REMAIN back in the lead

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

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Even EdM had net positives at this stage

It used to be that YouGov published its well/badly party leader ratings on a weekly basis. Now in this post-GE2015 polling disaster era we only get them once a month. The latest, for November, is just out for the Times and the figures continue to decline for Mr. Corbyn. Of those polled 52% said he was doing badly with 30% saying well.

To put that into context on November 19th 2010 Ed Miliband was still in positive territory with the online firm – a net plus 1%.

There are are several different polling approaches to leader ratings. Ipsos asks about “satisfaction/dissatisfaction“; ComRes “favourable/unfavourable“, Opinium “approval/disapproval” and YouGov “well/badly“.

    In every single poll of whatever form where leader rating questions have been put since Corbyn got the job he has been in negative territory.

Meanwhile there’s a new Survation EUREF poll which has REMAIN in lead – almost a reversal of the figures that the firm had last week.

Mike Smithson





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More leader rating woes for Corbyn though Dave moves from a positive to a negative with YouGov

Wednesday, October 28th, 2015

JC comparing badly with EdM’s early ratings

The latest YouGov Well/Badly ratings are in the top panel above and show Corbyn with a net minus 20%.

Normally main party leaders enjoy a honeymoon partly caused by a high level of don’t knows as we see with Ed Miliband’s initial ratings. That’s not happening for the new Labour leader.

Whilst the voting intention polls did poorly at the last election the leader ratings from the different firms highlighted clearly that the red team had a big problem with their man.

Mike Smithson





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Less than six weeks after becoming LAB leader Mr. Corbyn’s approval ratings slump to a net minus 19 points with Opinium

Monday, October 19th, 2015

Jeremy Corbyn

Opinium has a new poll out showing almost no change in the voting intention numbers. CON still ahead by 5%.

The firm is the only one to regularly ask leader approval questions and the latest survey is not good for Labour’s new leader. In September Opinium had him on a net minus 7 points. Tonight the gap between those who approve of him and those who don’t has widened to 19 points.

These latest numbers mean that in every single poll that has asked leader ratings of one kind or another Corbyn has been showing negative numbers.

    Corby’s ratings are unprecedented for any leader of any party so soon after getting the job.

There’s a strong view that leadership ratings are an equal if not better guide to electoral outcomes than voting intention questions.

Mike Smithson