Archive for the 'Leader approval ratings' Category


The Great Corbyn leader rating divide

Sunday, November 22nd, 2015


How GE15 CON voters react differently depending on the question format

With question marks still hanging over voting intention polling there’s been a lot more focus on leader ratings which seemed to have performed far better as voting indicators at GE2015.

But here’s a thing. Over the past five days we’ve seen three completely different pictures of how Mr Corbyn is doing from three of the UK’s leading pollsters. Just look at the chart above.

With Ipsos-MORI things are not going too badly for the new red team captain. YouGov has him a fair bit lower and right at the bottom is ComRes.

The reason is that the three pollsters ask very different questions. For forty years Ipsos-MORI has used the satisfied/dissatisfied question. YouGov’s main measure for more than a decade had been on “well/badly” while in the 2010-2015 parliament ComRes, partly at my suggestion, switched to asking about favourability.

The latter has become almost the standard format in the US and I became convinced it was the right approach while writing on White House Race polling in 2012 for the Daily Telegraph. My view is that it gives a better view of electoral outcomes.

In the chart I’ve shown the responses of Tory general election voters to Mr Corbyn and as can be seen there’s a massive difference from the three pollsters. Ipsos had 28% of the Tories saying they were satisfied with the LAB leader while ComRes had just 5% viewing him favourably.

Given how the new LAB leadership has been working out you can understand why many CON backers are satisfied. Looking on him in favourability terms is, however, a totally different matter.

Mike Smithson


CON leads moves to 15% with ComRes online while Corbyn sees 10% drop in his favourability ratings

Saturday, November 21st, 2015


Con 42% (NC)
Lab 27% (-2)
LD 7% (NC)
UKIP 15% (+2)
Green 3% (NC)
SNP 5% (NC)
Other 1% (NC)

And Osbo’s leadership hopes take another blow

The ComRes leader ratings paint a very different picture from that which we saw from Ipsos earlier in the week. This is down to the question. ComRes ask favourability questions while the Ipsos-MORI rating relates to leader satisfaction. The latter found 28% of 2015 CON voters saying they are satisfied with Corbyn – a number which is very telling in itself.

George Osborne has the second worst rating of a UK politician at a net minus 19%. If his hopes of replacing Dave are to be realised then those figures have to improve markedly. Boris continues to dominate.

Only half of Labour voters view Jeremy Corbyn favourably (53%) – this compares to 85% of Conservative voters viewing David Cameron favourably.

40% say LAB MPs should oust Corbyn

What could be worrying is that when asked “Labour MPs should remove Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party” 40% of those sampled said yes with 31% disagreeing, Of LAB voters 20% say their leader of just ten weeks should be ousted against 56% who say he shouldn’t.

The sample was split 39-39 on whether they trusted Dave to keep them and their family safe. This was in sharp contrast to Corbyn where only 17% said they trusted him on this and 58% said they didn’t.

Overall a very poor poll for LAB and its new leader.

Mike Smithson


Corbyn slumps to new YouGov leader ratings low while latest Survation #EUREF polling has REMAIN back in the lead

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015


Even EdM had net positives at this stage

It used to be that YouGov published its well/badly party leader ratings on a weekly basis. Now in this post-GE2015 polling disaster era we only get them once a month. The latest, for November, is just out for the Times and the figures continue to decline for Mr. Corbyn. Of those polled 52% said he was doing badly with 30% saying well.

To put that into context on November 19th 2010 Ed Miliband was still in positive territory with the online firm – a net plus 1%.

There are are several different polling approaches to leader ratings. Ipsos asks about “satisfaction/dissatisfaction“; ComRes “favourable/unfavourable“, Opinium “approval/disapproval” and YouGov “well/badly“.

    In every single poll of whatever form where leader rating questions have been put since Corbyn got the job he has been in negative territory.

Meanwhile there’s a new Survation EUREF poll which has REMAIN in lead – almost a reversal of the figures that the firm had last week.

Mike Smithson


More leader rating woes for Corbyn though Dave moves from a positive to a negative with YouGov

Wednesday, October 28th, 2015

JC comparing badly with EdM’s early ratings

The latest YouGov Well/Badly ratings are in the top panel above and show Corbyn with a net minus 20%.

Normally main party leaders enjoy a honeymoon partly caused by a high level of don’t knows as we see with Ed Miliband’s initial ratings. That’s not happening for the new Labour leader.

Whilst the voting intention polls did poorly at the last election the leader ratings from the different firms highlighted clearly that the red team had a big problem with their man.

Mike Smithson


Less than six weeks after becoming LAB leader Mr. Corbyn’s approval ratings slump to a net minus 19 points with Opinium

Monday, October 19th, 2015

Jeremy Corbyn

Opinium has a new poll out showing almost no change in the voting intention numbers. CON still ahead by 5%.

The firm is the only one to regularly ask leader approval questions and the latest survey is not good for Labour’s new leader. In September Opinium had him on a net minus 7 points. Tonight the gap between those who approve of him and those who don’t has widened to 19 points.

These latest numbers mean that in every single poll that has asked leader ratings of one kind or another Corbyn has been showing negative numbers.

    Corby’s ratings are unprecedented for any leader of any party so soon after getting the job.

There’s a strong view that leadership ratings are an equal if not better guide to electoral outcomes than voting intention questions.

Mike Smithson


Even Michael Foot had net positive opening MORI ratings. How will Corbyn do?

Saturday, September 19th, 2015

How will the granddaddy of the polling industry rate Labour’s new leader?

We’ve had a few sets of numbers already on Corbyn but none from the long-established posters using their tried and tested questioning.

Ipsos MORI, and in its earlier incarnation just MORI, has been surveying leader ratings since the mid-1970 and one question whether the sample are “satisfied or dissatisfied” has been asked in the same manner for nearly four decades. The result is that it has a vast amount of data available for comparison and this continues to be regarded as the “gold standard” for this form of polling.

As can be seen in the table every new LAB leader, including Michael Foot, at least started with a net positive. This is something that cannot be said of all new Tory leaders.

Interestingly Kinnock opened with the best numbers while EdM was a touch better than Tony Blair in 1994. The question now is how will Mr. Corbyn rate.

I’m hoping we’ll see the latest from Ipsos MORI in the next week.

Mike Smithson


Tomorrow night is Nigel Farage’s big opportunity

Wednesday, April 1st, 2015

Farage’s ratings for a third party leader are pretty poor

With the seven way debate upon us shortly, I was trying to see the circumstances that led to the Cleggasm in April 2010.

Using the Ipsos-Mori leader satisfaction ratings as a proxy,  we can see how Nigel Farage’s net ratings compare to Clegg in March 2010.

Then in April 2010 the public for a short time, ended up liking someone they already liked a bit more.

Given that that Farage and UKIP are the recipients of the None of the Above voters that the Lib Dems used to attract, and are effectively the third party of Great British wide politics, in the polls at least, compared to his predecessors of the third party/second opposition party, Farage’s ratings aren’t that good.

This may be a by product of the voters’ perception of UKIP, which sees them as the most extreme and least fit to govern party,  as the most sleazy and disreputable party, and a racist party likely to have candidates with racist/extreme views.

So does this mean no Faragasm tomorrow night? I suspect the format of the debate is what is more likely to stop a Fargasm tomorrow night rather than Nigel’s poor ratings as a third party leader, but it does present Farage an opportunity to regain the UKIP voters he seems to have misplaced recently, as Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling today was the latest to confirm this trend.



Farage joins the minus 20 leader dissatisfaction club

Thursday, December 18th, 2014