Archive for the 'Harry Hayfield’s local election preview' Category

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August Local By-Election Summary and Important Notice

Friday, August 26th, 2016

The Lochs (Non Party Independent defence) on Fife
Result: Labour 1,318 (47% +1%), Scottish National Party 1,079 (39% +20%), Conservative 270 (10% +7%), Communist 86 (3%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 45 (2%, no candidate in 2012)
Labour GAIN from Non Party Independent on the fourth count with a lead of 239 (8%) on a swing of 9.5% from Lab to SNP

By-Election Summary : August 2016
Labour 10,865 votes (30% -1% on last time) winning 6 seats (unchanged on last time)
Conservatives 10,493 votes (29% unchanged on last time) winning 7 seats (-1 on last time)
Scottish National Party 3,552 votes (10% +5% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time)
United Kingdom Independence Party 3,448 votes (9% -5% on last time) winning 2 seats (unchanged on last time)
Liberal Democrats 3,217 votes (9% +3% on last time) winning 2 seats (+1 on last time)
Independent candidates 2,178 votes (6% +2% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time)
Green Party 819 votes (2% -2% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time)
Other Parties 1,811 votes (5% -2% on last time) winning 2 seats (+1 on last time)

GAINS in August 2015
UKIP GAIN Beaver on Ashford from Labour
Liberal Democrats GAIN Alston Moor on Eden from Conservative
Labour GAIN Silverdale and Parksite on Newcastle under Lyme from UKIP
Labour GAIN Irvine West on North Ayrshire from Scottish National Party
Scottish National Party GAIN Renfrew South and Gallowhill on Renfrewshire from Labour
Conservatives GAIN Gravesham East on Kent from Labour
Conservatives GAIN Catterick from Independents on Richmondshire
Farnham Residents GAIN Farnham, Shortheath and Boundstone and Farnham, Castle on Waverley from Conservative

Next month, is a very important month for the 2020 General Election campaign, as the Boundary Commissions for Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and England announce their initial proposals for a new 600 seat House where each constituency is precisely the same size based on the electorate of the UK in December 2015. There are of course four exceptions to this rule, Orkney and Shetland (which will remain as a single seat), The Western Isles (which will also remain as a single seat) and the Isle of Wight (which will be split into two and named accordingly), the other 596 seats however are all in flux.

On September 6th, the Boundary Commission for Northern Ireland will report on how it believes Northern Ireland’s new 17 constituencies will be arranged. On September 13th England and Wales will announce theirs. There has been no date set for Scotland yet but I expect by the end of the month we will have all the initial proposals.

These proposals will also mark the start of proper betting for that election and so starting on September 6th, I will be calculating the new notional map of Britain if those boundaries were in place for 2015. As you can imagine this is going to be quite a task (and there is a very good chance I may ask readers for their help) it does mean however that I will not be able to tally the local by-elections for September (and possibly October as well), therefore I ask the other members of the PB community to volunteer to take over from me for those two months. If you are willing to do so, then simply reply in the comments box and give an example of how you would profile the by-elections for your local council ward.

In consultation with Mike, I will choose the best one on Sunday and then pass the details of those by-elections over the next two months to them and look forward to reading their summaries. Until the start of November (when there may be a huge crop of them) this is Harry Hayfield signing off from local by-election duty and signing on to new constituency tallying duty



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Local By-Election Preview : August 25th 2016

Thursday, August 25th, 2016

The Lochs (Non Party Independent defence) on Fife
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 35, Scottish National Party 26, Liberal Democrats 10, Conservatives 3, Independents 3, Non Party Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,380, 349 (46%)
Non Party Independent 1,025 (28%)
Scottish National Party 708 (19%)
Independents 165 (4%)
Conservatives 99 (3%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 106,754 (59%) LEAVE 75,466 (41%) on a turnout of 67%
Candidates duly nominated: Thomas Kirby (Comm), Mary Lockhart (Lab), Malcolm McDonald (Con), Lea McLelland (SNP), Bradford Oliver (Green)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Elections : 4th August is Super Thursday with 4 Con, 2 Lab, and 1 UKIP defence

Thursday, August 4th, 2016

Beaver (Lab defence) on Ashford
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 34, Labour 4, Independents 3, Liberal Democrat 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 25)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 817, 645 (31%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 812 (31%)
Conservatives 715, 423 (27%)
Green Party 195, 135 (7%)
Independent 126 (5%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,314 (41%) LEAVE 41,472 (59%) on a turnout of 77%
Candidates duly nominated: Jo Gideon (Con), Caroline Harris (Lab), Ryan Macpherson (UKIP), Elizabeth Wright (Green)

East Brighton (Lab defence) on Brighton and Hove
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 23, Conservatives 20, Green Party 11 (No Overall Control, Lab short by 5)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 3,229, 3,225, 2,918 (47%)
Conservatives 1,563, 1,510, 1,416 (23%)
Green Party 1,357, 1,021 (20%)
Liberal Democrat 546 (8%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 255 (4%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 100,648 (69%) LEAVE 46,027 (31%) on a turnout of 74%
Candidates duly nominated: Mitch Alexander (Green), Andrew England (Lib Dem), Leigh Farrow (UKIP), David Plant (Con),
Lloyd Russell-Moyle (Lab), Ramon Sammut (Ind)

Holderness South West (Con defence) R on the East Riding of Yorkshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 51, Labour 6, Independents 5, United Kingdom Independence Party 3, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 35)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 3,062, 2,704, 2,368 (38%)
Labour 2,190, 1,987, 1,815 (27%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 2,108 (26%)
Independent 775 (10%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 78,779 (40%) LEAVE 120,136 (60%) on a turnout of 75%
Candidates duly nominated: Dave Edwards (Ind), David Tucker (Con), Andrew Weaver (UKIP), Patrick Wilkinson (Lab), Helen Wright (Lib Dem)

Alston Moor (Con defence) on Eden
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 21, Independents 10, Liberal Democrats 7 (Conservative majority of 4)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Independents 710, 446 (59%)
Conservative 487 (41%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 14,807 (47%) LEAVE 16,911 (53%) on a turnout of 76%
Candidates duly nominated: Stephen Harrison (Con), Thomas Sheriff (Lib Dem)

Silverdale and Parksite (Newcastle Independent Group defence, elected as UKIP) on Newcastle under Lyme
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 27, Conservatives 21, Newcastle Independents 6, Liberal Democrats 3, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2014): United Kingdom Independence Party 477 (46%), Labour 385 (37%), Conservative 122 (12%), Green Party 36 (4%), Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 21 (2%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 25,477 (37%) LEAVE 43,457 (63%) on a turnout of 74%
Candidates duly nominated: Lynn Dean (UKIP), Gareth Snell (Lab), James Vernon (Con), Gary White (Ind)

Bingham (Con defence) on Nottinghamshire
Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 34, Conservatives 21, Liberal Democrats 8, Independent 2, Mansfield Independents 2 (Labour majority of 1)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 1,522 (42%), Labour 738 (20%), Liberal Democrat 725 (20%), United Kingdom Independence Party 656 (18%)
Referendum Result: (Nottinghamshire county) REMAIN 243,289 (42%) LEAVE 335,082 (58%) on a turnout of 73%
Candidates duly nominated: Tracey Kerry (Ind), Francis Purdue-Horan (Con), Alan Walker (Lab)

Carnmer (Con defence) on Rushcliffe
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 33, Labour 4, Green Party 2, Liberal Democrats 2, Independents 2 (Conservative majority of 23)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 995 (71%), Labour 410 (29%)
Referendum Result: REMAIN 40,522 (58%) LEAVE 29,888 (42%) on a turnout of 82%
Candidates duly nominated: Chris Grocock (Lab), Tracey Kerry (Ind), Maureen Stockwood (Con)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Election Preview : June 9th 2016 (Referendum Day -14 days and counting)

Thursday, June 9th, 2016

Basildon, Laindon Park and Fryerns (Lab defence) on Essex
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 42, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 9, Greens 2, Canvey Island Independent 1, Independent 1, Ratepayers 1, Tendring First 1 (Conservative majority of 9)
Result of ward at last election (2013) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 2,277, 1,980 (37%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 2,175, 1,684 (36%)
Conservative 958, 784 (16%)
Liberal Democrats 215, 187(4%)
National Front 171 (3%)
Green Party 138, 116 (2%)
Independent 119 (2%)
Trade Unionist and Socialists 73 (1%)
Candidates duly nominated: Gavin Callaghan (Lab), Frank Ferguson (UKIP), Gary Maylin (Con), Philip Rackley (Green)

South ward (Lab defence) on North East Lincolnshire
Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 19, Conservatives 11, United Kingdom Independence Party 5, Liberal Democrats 5, Independents 2 (No Overall Control, Lab short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 1,681 (43%), United Kingdom Independence Party 1,278 (32%), Conservative 742 (19%), Liberal Democrat 172 (4%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 83 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: Paul Batson (Con), Loyd Emmerson (Green), Janet Goodwin (Lab), Val O’Flynn (TUSC), Stephen Whittingham (UKIP)

Essex and North East Lincolnshire are prime UKIP areas and in all reality, these two wards should be easy UKIP gains, but since the general election UKIP have been polling four percent less than they did last time (8% as opposed to 12% last time) and have managed to lose half of their seats net.

If neither of these two seats elect a UKIP councillor, just a fortnight before a referendum on UKIP’s reason for existing, the EU, then Nigel Farage might as well admit defeat and go back to being a commodities trader.

Gipsy Hill (Lab defence) on Lambeth
Result of council at last election (2014) : Labour 59, Conservatives 3, Green 1 (Lab majority of 55)
Result of ward at last election : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 2,242, 2,202, 2,183 (67%)
Conservatives 436, 434, 423 (13%)
Green Party 364, 317, 257 (11%)
Liberal Democrats 164, 161, 133 (5%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 142 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Pete Elliott (Green), Rosa Jesse (Lib Dem), Elizabeth Jones (UKIP), Robin Lambert (Ind), Leslie Maruziva (Con), Luke Murphy (Lab), Steven Nally (TUSC)

Surrey Docks (Lib Dem defence) on Southwark
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 48, Liberal Democrats 13, Conservatives 2 (Lab majority of 33)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 1,039, 837, 780 (31%)
Labour 712, 697, 655 (21%)
Conservatives 655, 562, 548 (19%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 502, 468 (15%)
Green Party 486, 360 (14%)
Candidates duly nominated: Colin Boyle (Green), Craig Cox (Con), John Hellings (Ind), Will Holmes (Lab), Toby Prescott (UKIP), Dan Whitehead (Lib Dem)

If UKIP have a London problem, then the Lib Dems have a London disaster area. In the London Assembly constituency elections, their vote (which was pretty static at 19% in 2000 and 2004) has nosedived to just 7% in May and it is even worse in some of their stronger parts.

Croydon and Sutton (taking in their strongest council area) their vote fell from 26% in 2000 to 10% in May (only just beating UKIP by five hundred votes) and in their parliamentary heartlands (South West constituency) they have gone from 30% (and within a whisker of winning the seat) to just 14% suggesting that the much talked about Lib Dem fightback is only occurring in areas that they are currently strong in (as opposed to historically strong in), so therefore does this mean that Labour will take another Lib Dem seat in Southwark or will there be Conservative tactical voting to keep Labour from dominating the council even more than it does at the moment?

Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Elections : June 2nd 2016 (Referendum Day -21 days and counting)

Thursday, June 2nd, 2016

Oban North and Lorn (Ind defence, elected as SNP) on Argyll and Bute
Result of council at last election (2012) : Independents 15, Scottish Nationalists 13, Liberal Democrats 4, Conservatives 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%)
Scottish National Party 410, 707 (31%)
Conservatives 332 (9%)
Liberal Democrats 188 (5%)
Candidates duly nominated: Kieron Green (Ind), David Pollard (Lib Dem), Breege Smith (SNP), Andrew Vennard (Con)

The Returning Officer for the Argyll and Bute council area must really hate his job at the moment. Since the beginning of 2014 he has had to audjudicate over the Scottish Independence Referendum (October 2014), the Westminster General Election (May 2015), the Scottish Parliament Elections (May 2016), the EU Referendum (June 2016) and if that wasn’t enough THREE local by-elections in the same ward.

Yes, that’s right, three out of the four councillors elected for this ward in 2012 have created by-elections in the space of two years! The first one was in July 2014 (Ind GAIN from SNP), then October 2014 (SNP GAIN from Ind) and now this one. I hope, therefore after the referendum that returning officer has some well deserved rest before next year’s local elections.

Dyserth (Con defence) and Denbigh Lower (Ind defence) on Denbighshire
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 18, Independents 12, Conservatives 9, Plaid Cymru 7, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 6)
Result of wards at last election (2012)

Dyserth: Conservative 369 (51%), Labour 275 (38%), Liberal Democrat 84 (12%)
Candidates duly nominated: Hugh Hughes (Con), Richard Jones-Abbas (Lab), David Parry (Ind), Heather Prydderch (Lib Dem), David Williams (Ind), Janice Williams (Plaid)

Denbigh Lower: Emboldened denotes elected
Independents 977, 579, 505, 204(78%)
Plaid Cymru 386 (13%)
Liberal Democrat 138 (5%)
Conservative 118 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: John McGuire (Lab), Lara Pritchard (Con), Rhys Thomas (Plaid), William Williams (Lib Dem), Mark Young (Ind)

Denbighshire is one of the counties where no matter how hard anyone tries, a majority is impossible to manage. In 1995, when the council was created, the Independents had a 8% lead over Labour (which was translated into a one seat lead) and by 1999, that lead has only fallen to 7% but the seat lead increased to five thanks to the creation of the Democratic Alliance for Wales and in 2004 saw the Independent vote lead increase to 15% (and the seat lead to 12) leading everyone to assume that Denbighshire was almost certain to go Independent.

However in 2008, the Conservatives did not read the memo as they polled 33% (+18%) and became the largest party on the council pushing the Independents into second before Labour recovered in 2012 and taking first place. And yet despite all these changes, Denbighshire has been in a state of No Overall Control since day one.

Sherborne Rural (Con defence) on Dorset
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrats 12, Labour 5, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 8)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 1,258 (37%), Liberal Democrat 1,168 (34%), United Kingdom Independence Party 746 (22%), Green Party 129 (4%), Labour 85 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: Geoff Freeman (Lab), Matthew Hall (Lib Dem), Mary Penfold (Con)

In three weeks time, the people of the United Kingdom will be asked whether the United Kingdom should remain in the European Union, a referendum that UKIP have been calling for since their foundation. UKIP are involved heavily on the LEAVE side and yet, bearing that in mind, since the general election have lost nine of the twelve seats that they were defending in local by-elections and, to make matters even worse for them, here in a ward where a strong UKIP challenge would make all the difference, they cannot even find a candidate. If LEAVE do win in three weeks time, I do not think it will be UKIP who will be cheering the loudest, it will be those LEAVE campaigners in the Conservative Party as they will have managed to defeat UKIP at their own game.

Lewes Bridge (Lib Dem defence) on Lewes
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 24, Liberal Democrats 11, Green Party 3, Independents 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 7)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 905, 641 (28%)
Green Party 677, 410 (21%)
Independent 540 (16%)
Labour 529, 447 (16%)
Conservatives 395, 359 (12%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 240 (7%)
Candidates duly nominated: Roy Burman (Con), Johnny Dennis (Green), Will Elliott (Lib Dem), Richard Hurn (Lab)

It goes to show what a terrible night the general election was for the Liberal Democrats when in Lewes, a constituency they held in 2010 with a majority of 7,647 votes becomes a Conservative GAIN with a majority of 1,083 and in the local elections at the same time, the Greens gain a seat that has been Lib Dem for ages. Since then however, there has been the famed “Lib Dem fightback” which at the locals this year saw the Lib Dems make their first net gain in councillors since 2008, but with only a 3.5% swing needed for the Greens to win a second seat, will there be tactical voting by the Conservatives and Labour (as we saw in a number of seats in Scotland and Wales) to ensure that mainstream parties carry the day.

Barking and Somersham (Con defence) on Mid Suffolk
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 29, Green Party 5, Liberal Democrats 4, Independents 2 (Conservative majority of 18)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 542 (42%), Suffolk First 411 (32%), United Kingdom Independence Party 194 (15%), Liberal Democrat 154 (12%)
Candidates duly nominated: Anne Killett (Green), Jemma Lynch (Con), William Marsburg (Lab), Mark Valladares (Lib Dem)

Local Independents have a very patchy track record. Some are very long standing like Llais Gwynedd in Wales (who prevented Plaid Cymru winning overall control of Gwynedd in both 2008 and 2012) and then there are very short lived ones like Llais Ceredigion (which forced a mayoral referendum in 2004 and then vanished shortly thereafter). The Suffolk First Independents first appeared on the scene in 2007 when they contested three wards (and won seats in two of them, one from the Conservatives and one from the Lib Dems). They stood in the same three wards in 2011 and held both their seats but in 2015 fell by the wayside as they only fielded a candidate in the seats they had won in 2011 and lost them both.

Now clearly Suffolk First no longer exist and therefore the question is “Where will their support go?”. If it goes to UKIP (which has happened in the past) then UKIP will cheer their first councillor, if it goes to the Lib Dems, they will cheer winning one of their historical seats back and if it goes to Labour or the Greens they will cheer proving that they can pick up local independent support.

Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Election Preview : May 26th 2016

Thursday, May 26th, 2016

Northallerton South (Con defence) on Hambleton
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 27, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 26)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,414, 758 (49%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 762 (26%)
Labour 739, 654 (25%)
Candidates duly nominated: Caroline Dickinson (Con), Chris Pearson (Yorkshire First), Dave Robertson (UKIP), David Tickle (Lab)

Northallerton (Con defence) on North Yorkshire
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 45, Independents 8, Liberal Democrats 8. Labour 7, Liberals 2, United Kingdom Independence Party 2 (Conservative majority of 18)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 825 (52%), United Kingdom Independence Party 489 (31%), Labour 259 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated: Michael Chaloner (Green), Caroline Dickinson (Con), Chris Pearson (Yorkshire First), Stephen Place (UKIP), David Tickle (Lab)

The North Yorkshire section of the Green Party probably cannot believe their luck. In a week of a local by-election to the county council (caused by the death of the sitting member who was also a district councillor on Hambleton) the county go ahead and vote in favour of hydraulic extraction (or “fracking” as it is commonly known) despite the fact there his a lot of anger and hostility to the policy which the Greens themselves also oppose.

If the Greens don’t manage to win this (and get their first seat on the council ahead of the local elections next year) then maybe it is possible that economic considerations outweigh environmental concerns in the leafy Conservative shires.

Stapenhill (UKIP defence) on East Staffordshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Labour 12, United Kingdom Independence Party 1, Liberal Democrat 1 (Conservative majority of 11)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,251, 1.235, 865 (32%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,228 (31%)
Conservatives 963, 819, 714 (25%)
Green Party 488 (12%)
Candidates duly nominated: Sally Green (UKIP), Thomas Hadley (Green), Craig Jones (Lab), Susan Paxton (Ind),
Michael Teasel (Con), Hugh Warner (Lib Dem)

UKIP have a problem when it comes to local by-elections. It’s a problem that has been demonstrated in Wisbech, Camborne, Watton and Newington and that problem is “being simply unable to hold a local by-election defence”. Since the general election up to the local elections at the start of May UKIP have managed to lose six of the eight seats they have been defending in local by-elections and (to make matters worse) seen their vote share drop from 10% at the last elections to 7% now

Fervent UKIP supporters will of course say “But that’s in the past, we have shown that we can win seats where we have contested before, look at Thurrock!” (and yes, whilst I agree that in Thurrock, compared with 2012, UKIP’s vote increased by 21%) they have yet to show this resilience at the local by-election level.

Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Elections : February 18th 2016

Thursday, February 18th, 2016

Emboldened indicates the by-election was caused by a death
Emboldened italics indicates the by-election was caused by a resignation

Oban North and Lorn (Argyll First defence, was Independent) on Argyll and Bute
Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 15, Scottish National Party 13, Conservatives 4, Liberal Democrats 4 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Independents 421, 807, 125, 361, 222, 58 (55%)
Scottish National Party 410, 707 (31%)
Conservatives 332 (9%)
Liberal Democrats 188 (5%)
Candidates duly nominated: Kieron Green (Ind), Julie McKensie (SNP), Pat Tyrrell (Green), Andrew Vennard (Con)

Greasley (Con defence) and Toton and Chilwell Meadows (Con defence) on Browtoxe
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservative 25, Labour 11, Liberal Democrats 4, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 9)
Result of wards at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected

Greasley
Conservatives 1,933 , 1,726, 1,605 (48%)
Labour 1,036, 993, 896 (26%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 795, 678 (20%)
Liberal Democrats 263, 220, 182 (7%)
Candidates duly nominated: Tracey Cahill (UKIP), Chris Chandler (Lab), Eddie Cubley (Con), Keith Longdon (Lib Dem)

Toton and Chilwell Meadows
Conservatives 2,631, 2,570, 1,939 (45%)
Labour 1,243, 1,187, 1,022 (21%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 773 (13%)
Independent 632 (11%)
Green Party 585 (10%)
Candidates duly nominated: Lisa Clarke (Lab), Graham Heal (Lib Dem), Stephanie Kerry (Con), Gordon Stoner (Green)

Sutton (Con defence) on Cambridgeshire
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 32, Liberal Democrats 14, United Kingdom Independence Party 12, Labour 7, Independents 4 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 817 (49%), Liberal Democrat 542 (33%), Labour 295 (18%)
Candidates duly nominated: Pete Bigsby (UKIP), Mike Bradley (Con), Lorna Dupre (Lib Dem), Owen Winters (Ind)

Amersham Town (Lib Dem defence) on Chiltern
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 35, Liberal Democrats 3, Independents 2 (Conservative overall majority of 30)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,229, 880 (39%)
Liberal Democrats 1,052, 545 (33%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 455 (14%)
Labour 450 (14%)
Candidates duly nominated: Jules Cook (Con), Richard Phoenix (UKIP), Robin Walters (Lab), Richard Williams (Lib Dem)

New Brighton (Lib Dem defence) on Flintshire
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 31, Independents 23, Conservatives 7, Liberal Democrats 7, Plaid Cymru 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 4)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Liberal Democrat 469 (45%), Labour 334 (32%), Conservative 229 (22%)
Candidates duly nominated: Sara Parker (Lib Dem), Linda Pierce (Lab), Zula Taylor (Con), John Yorke (Ind)

Chadsmead (Lib Dem defence) on Lichfield
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 41, Labour 4, Liberal Democrat 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 35)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 747, 515 (33%)
Liberal Democrats 563, 357 (25%)
Labour 547, 524 (24%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 382 (17%)
Candidates duly nominated: Colin Ball (Lab), Adam Elsdon (Green), Jan Higgins (UKIP), Brian McMullan (Con), Paul Ray (Lib Dem)

Higher Blackley (Lab defence) on Manchester
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 96, no opposition
Result of ward at last election (2014): Labour 1,737 (55%), United Kingdom Independence Party 1,046 (33%), Conservative 194 (6%), Green Party 142 (5%), Liberal Democrat 53 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: Peter George (Lib Dem), Anne Power (Lib Dem), Martin Power (UKIP), Paula Sadler (Lab), David Semple (Con), George Walkden (Pirate)

Newmarket and Red Lodge (Con defence) on Suffolk
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 39, Labour 15, United Kingdom Independence Party 9, Liberal Democrats 7, Independents 3, Green Party 2
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 968 (45%), United Kingdom Independence Party 615 (28%), Labour 450 (21%), Liberal Democrat 136 (6%)
Candidates duly nominated: Andrew Appleby (West Suffolk Independents), Roger Dicker (UKIP), Tim Huggan (Lib Dem), Michael Jefferys (Lab), Robin Millar (Con)

It’s been rather a tricky week for me this week, my grandmother was admitted to hospital with a glaucoma infection at the end of last week and although now home has to have four sets of medicinal drops placed into her eyes each day (which she is unable to do herself because of precision), this coupled with some of the nominations for these by-elections being so well hidden on council’s websites they were only e-mailed to me this morning plus our family’s normal schedule being mucked up by car engines not starting and other commitments meant there has not been time to compile the usual detailed preview of each council area, however I am sure that PBers (in particular Nick Palmer the former Labour MP for Broxtowe) will be able to comment on these areas. My grandmother’s treatment is due to end on Saturday and therefore next week normal service will be resumed.

Harry Hayfield



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Local By-Election History and Candidates : December 10th 2015: 4 Con, 2 Lab and 1 LD Defences

Thursday, December 10th, 2015

Kinson South (Two Conservative defences) on Bournemouth
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 49, Independent 1, United Kingdom Indepdence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 48)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,638, 1,579, 1,439 (33%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 1,362 (27%)
Labour 1,060, 918, 814 (21%)
Green Party 526, 484 (10%)
Liberal Democrat 453 (9%)
Candidates duly nominated by party:
Conservatives: Norman Decent, Roger Marley
Labour: Beryl Baxter, Mel Semple
Liberal Democrats: Phil Dunn, Gill Pardy
United Kingdom Independence Party: Duane Farr
Green Party: Geoffrey Darnton, Carla Gregory-May
Bournemouth Independent Alliance: Phillip Davenport, Roger West
Patria: Kevin Dixon

This was the ward where polling books from the wrong ward were given to electors and an election court ruled that because of it, the second and third placed Conservative councillors could not have been judged to have been elected without doubts being raised of their validity

Clifton (Conservative defence) on Flyde
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 32, Independents 14, Ratepayers 2, Liberal Democrats 2, Labour 1 (Conservative majority of 13)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,385, 1,136, 1,087 (46%)
Independent 1,081 (36%)
Labour 554 (18%)
Candidates duly nominated: Peter Anthony (Con), Luke Gibbon (Lib Dem), Noreen Griffiths (Ind), Jed Sullivan (Lab), Tim Wood (UKIP)

Market Harborough, Logan (Liberal Democrat defence) on Harborough
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 29, Liberal Democrats 8 (Conservative majority of 21)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 996, 660 (36%)
Conservatives 975, 645 (35%)
Labour 416 (15%)
Green Party 368 (13%)
Candidates duly nominated: Paul Bremner (Con), Robert Davison (UKIP), Barbara Johnson (Lib Dem), Anne Pridmore (Lab), Darren Woodiwiss (Green)

Coal Aston (Conservative defence) and Holmwood and Heath (Labour defence) on North East Derbyshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 34, Conservatives 18, Independent 1 (Labour majority of 15)

Result of wards at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Coal Ashton
Conservatives 1,034, 941 (52%)
Labour 691, 608 (34%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 283 (14%)
Candidates duly nominated: David Cheetham (Lab), Gareth Hopkinson (Con)

Holmewood and Heath
Labour 948, 841 (72%)
Conservatives 376, 325 (28%)
Candidates duly nominated: Suzy Cornwell (Lab), Caroline Ellis (Con)

Blantyre (Labour defence) on South Lanarkshire
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 33, Scottish National Party 28, Conservatives 3, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,144, 756, 579 (54%)
Scottish National Party 929, 470 (31%)
Independent 40, 234 (6%)
Conservative 176 (4%)
Christian People’s Alliance 209 (4%)
Liberal Democrats 32 (1%)
Candidates duly nominated: Sean Baillie (Scottish Socialists), Gerry Chambers (SNP), Emma Docherty (UKIP), Taylor Muir (Con), Mo Razzaq (Lab), Stephen Reid (Lib Dem)

Compiled by Harry Hayfield

I do apologise for the lack of a write up for these wards, but on Sunday I came down with a flu vaccine influenced cold and have been exceptionally tired as a result of it therefore have only been able to tally the results last time and the candidates standing. I am pleased to report though that I am feeling better than I was on Tuesday and hope (fingers crossed) to be back to my normal self by Sunday in readiness for a Monday by-election, Tuesday by-election and four Thursday by-elections in the same week!