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Michael Gove’s flagship educational policies could turn out to be a GE2015 liability not an asset

Tuesday, June 18th, 2013

2010 LD voters give LAB a 22% lead on the issue

Whenever there is any polling involving the coalition’s education policies or Michael Gove personally the key swing group of voters next time, 2010 Lib Dems, appear to be taking a hostile view.

Today we have YouGov’s regular ratings on the best party for different policy areas and there’s been a move to Labour on Schools/Education. The party was 5% ahead – now that’s up to 9%.

Where it gets very interesting is on the very different view that the remaining Lib Dem voters have compared with those who supported the party at GE2010.

The chart below shows the breakdown – just click on the tab to see the differences.

As can be seen 59% of current LD voters back their own party as you might expect. But just look at the split amongst 2010 Lib Dems where LAB policies are ahead with a 22% gap over the Tories.

Now what this polling doesn’t show is the extent to which this might have influenced voting intentions.

    We do know, however, from other polling by YouGov and Ipsos-MORI that education is more important as an issue to 2010 Lib Dems than those who voted for other parties.

As I keep on saying 24% of the GB vote in 2010 went to the LDs. That’s going to be a lot smaller at the election and how this segment reacts could be good pointer.

Mike Smithson

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Posted in General Election, Pollsters/polling | No Comments »

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The LAB-CON marginals: How Lib Dem non-targeting could help Labour

Monday, June 17th, 2013

Another headache for Grant Shapps

There’s a wide awareness of the fact that the Lib Dems, who chalked up 24% of the GB vote in 2010, will be putting 100% of their efforts into no more than 75 seats – the 57 they are defending and a few more where they think they are in with a shout.

All the focus has been on what this will do in the LD battlegrounds but it could also make a big difference in the LAB-CON marginals themselves where Grant Shapps is hoping the yellow vote won’t be hit too much thus blunting the LAB challenge.

But the LD plan to have the most focused election campaign ever means that there will be nothing more than token Lib Dem efforts in the remaining 555 constituencies.

The campaigns there will consist of little more than utilising the facility that’s provided to all candidates to have one leaflet distributed by the Royal Mail. Candidates will be put up by the yellows and will be on the ballot but that is about all.

Activists will be encouraged to put their efforts into their targets helped by the party’s new distributed phone-banking system which was put through its paces in Easteigh.

    Thus there’ll be no real efforts to retain the votes of the large numbers who opted for the LDs in 2010 and their support will be squeezed like never before.

    The impact of this, I believe, will be magnified in the 80 or so key LAB-CON battlegrounds where the red and blue campaigns will be going full throttle and more.

Given that the polling is showing that Labour is picking up the lion’s share of 2010 LDs who’ve switched the absence of LD campaiging simply adds to the pressure on the Tories. For the last thing Grant Shapps wants is for there to be any more switching.

The general election in the non-marginals will be very different for everybody. None of the parties will be putting that much effort in where it doesn’t matter.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in General Election | No Comments »

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Dave rates equally with CON party in latest ComRes online favourability ratings

Saturday, June 15th, 2013

On voting intentions CON slip sees LAB extend ComRes lead

Meanwhile the LDs continue to struggle with Opinium



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Who’ll win the UKIP-Lib Dem fight at GE2015 both in terms of seats and votes?

Saturday, June 15th, 2013

Your chance to make your prediction

How will UKIP’s performance at the General Election compare with the Lib Dems?
  
 


Posted in General Election, Lib Dems, UKIP | No Comments »

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Going for a 5-year fixed term might have been mistake

Friday, June 14th, 2013

Henry G Manson on the impact of waiting till May 2015

I’m not a big fan of fixed terms, but what stuck me at the start of the Coalition was how little debate there was about the length of fixed term that was being proposed. The majority of fixed term governments are run on a 4 year cycle, yet the Coalition were determined to lock in 5 years of government. This in itself will pose challenges for all parties.

From a democratic view I dislike the idea of having to wait longer to throw out a government of any colour. We know from our country’s recent history that governments that staggered on five years did so to avoid the inevitable reckoning with the voters, instead hoping ‘something will turn up’ No-one from the Conservatives looks fondly of 1996-97 under John Major. 2009-10 under Gordon Brown was littered with botched leadership challenges and a sense of gloom. For governments out of favour with the electorate the rot has often set in by the fourth year.

For the Coalition we’re still a whole year away from that 4 year landmark. 3 years in there’s growing talk of leadership challenges to David Cameron, the Conservative grassroots are alarmed at the electoral threat of UKIP and policies such as ‘gay marriage’ that have upset and distressed many activists.

    At Westminster there’s the drumbeat of animosity between backbench MPs from both Coalition parties, each blaming the other for their failings. The two years until the election could be a long and rocky road.

2015 will mark ten years of David Cameron as leader of the Conservative Party. It’s a long time in modern politics and to ask for 5 more years in 2015 becomes that bit harder both within the party and with the public. A 2014 general may have been too soon for Ed Miliband but 2014-2015 could be the year where voters decide to give him a chance.

It’s not all good news for Labour. Although Labour fixed terms have provided an orderly timetable for fundraising, candidate selection and developing policy. But if we were now a year until the election there’d arguably be more focus, urgency and energy. There are fears the party is using the comfort of a five year fixed term to put off decisions and the voters can sense that.

If we’re to continue with fixed terms in the future then they need to be 4 years and not 5. For everyone’s sake.

Henry G Manson



Posted in General Election, Coalition | No Comments »

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Remember when the Tories recovered from a poll share of 23pc to win a landslide 18 months later

Friday, June 14th, 2013

A lot happened between Dec 1981 and June 1983

Whenever people raise the question of whether the Tories can win the next election I like to point to the above opinion poll by Gallup in December 1981.

At the time the big story was the rise of the SDP and this poll took place shortly after Shirley Williams had had a spectacular victory in the Crosby by-election.

The new party had the media narrative with it and quite a number of LAB MPs defected as well as a CON one.

That the Liberal/SDP Alliance should poll over 50% was quite remarkable.

It didn’t last. Events, in the name of the Falklands, intervened and within a seven months the whole political landscape had changed. At the June 1983 election the CON vote share dropped by 1.5% but Mrs. Thatcher government was returned with a majority of 144.

    Looking back at that period there are certain similarities with the recent UKIP surge.

    The main differences are that the purples have not won a Westminster by-election and in this parliament have not seen an MP of another party defecting to them. They still have zero MPs.

Also UKIP’s top poll rating of 22% is nowhere the 50.5% plus that the Lib/SDP saw.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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In praise of Lord Ashcroft – the UK’s leading commissioner of political polling

Thursday, June 13th, 2013

When it comes to CON strategy Ashcroft is right & Crosby/Osborne wrong

Ever since Dave/George made the decision to bring in Lynton Crosby to run the GE2015 election campaign the Tory leadership have been at odds with the party’s former deputy chairman and leading funder over many years, Lord Ashcroft.

Quite simply Crosby, and presumably Osborne, have a view on how the Tories should try to win in 2015 while Ashcroft has another. To back his position Ashcroft has commissioned a mass of polling which suggests that the strategy that is being followed is probably not going to work.

Ashcroft has ploughed huge amounts into expensive phone polling and big sample online surveys simply because he is a seeker after knowledge. Very generously he has made the full details of his polling available to others. He’s also been very responsive to points raised by poll watchers like me.

More than anything Ashcroft’s desire is to see a majority CON government elected and he’s used his data to warn, for instance, of the blues going on too much about Europe.

Oborne’s attack is ridiculous.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in General Election, Pollsters/polling, Tories | No Comments »

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After ICM another phone poll, Ipsos-MORI, has UKIP on 12 percent

Wednesday, June 12th, 2013

Balls ahead of Osbo on running nation’s finances

The monthly Ipsos-MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out and sees very little change on a month ago. The firm’s UKIP share is 12% which is exactly what ICM had yesterday.

In another finding Ed Balls is beating Osborne by 38% to 35% as the one thought most capable at running the nation’s finances.

The leadership ratings

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in General Election, Pollsters/polling | No Comments »

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