Archive for the ' General Election' Category

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Even though it is well over four years since it was in power LAB is still getting the blame for the cuts

Tuesday, July 29th, 2014

Ever since May 2010 I’ve said that the “blame for the cuts” tracker from YouGov might be a good indicator.

The figures from 2014 are in the chart above and although the party is not on its worst position, 48% back in October 2010, it is still blamed more than the coalition.

While that remains Osborne/Cameron/Clegg & co can still respond to criticism of their economic policies by blaming LAB. Polling like this suggests that their line still resonates. This is going to get louder in the coming months.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not have the potency that many Tories think it has

Tuesday, July 29th, 2014

CON & LAB governments running neck and neck as preferred outcome amongst UKIP voters

You hear it all the time from the Blue teams when talking about the Ukip threat – that when faced with the prospect of a LAB government a large proportion will “come back home” and vote Tory.

That was a view that I broadly shared until last night before my detailed study of the aggregate data from the latest 14k sample Ashcroft marginals polling focused on CON held battlegrounds with LAB.

The above findings in the chart came as something of a surprise to me and I’m sure that I won’t be alone.

There were 2352 UKIP voters in the sample and the chart above shows how they split when faced with the very telling question of what would be their preferred general election outcome.

As can be seen fewer than one third (32%) wanted a CON government with 31% saying a LAB one. It’s that last figure that stands out.

That finding suggests that there are nearly as many potential LAB voters in the UKIP contingent as CON ones. Thus in the high octane campaigning environment of a tight marginal that the Tories might not have the advantage that they are widely perceived to have.

Vote UKIP get a LAB government might not be the compelling general election message that CON campaigners think it is.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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The Tories drop to their lowest point ever in a ComRes phone poll in tonight’s survey for the Indy

Monday, July 28th, 2014

And LAB moves to 6% lead with YouGov

For whatever reason see section the regular phone polls are tending to produce more extreme figures than online firms and so it is with tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent. The Tory share is down to 27% with Ukip dropping only a point to 17%.

ComRes, like almost all pollsters at the moment, had their usual crop of Miliband questions using the agree/disagree format. Asked whether Ed puts them off voting LAB 54% agreed and 41% disagreed. Asked whether they believed what Mr Miliband says more than they believed David Cameron, only 32% agreed and 57% disagreed.

The problem with this form of questioning, as I’ve argued many times before in all sorts of contexts, is that it can be leading.

Note that the ComRes phone polls are a completely different series from the ComRes online ones and shouldn’t be compared.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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Charting the Populus “Monday effect” – the day the LAB lead is generally up on the previous Friday

Monday, July 28th, 2014

General elections are on Thursday – so good for CON?

For a year now Populus has been issuing two online polls a week – on Monday where the fieldwork has taken place over the weekend and on a Friday when responses were from mid-week.

Last week YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UKPR crunched the data from the 100 or so Populus online polls that there have been and found an average LAB lead of 3.1% of Friday and a 3.8% one on Mondays.

As the chart shows in recent weeks the gap between the two days has got wider

I don’t have an explanation but if. indeed, those polled are more predisposed to CON mid-week than at the weekend then I’d suggest that it is good for the Tories that GE2015 is, as per usual, on a Thursday.

Today’s Populus poll.

UPDATE: Today’s Ashcroft national poll

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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There can be no getting round the fact that Tories are still being the most hurt by the UKIP surge

Monday, July 28th, 2014

And a lot of 2010 non-voters seem to back Farage’s party

The above chart is based on the aggregate data from Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of CON-LAB marginals polling which had a total sample of 14,004.

The first factor to stand out is that much more of UKIP’s current support in these key battlegrounds continues to come from ex-Tories than from ex-LAB voters. This means, of course, that the blues will benefit most should UKIP support fade.

Secondly, given UKIP only got 3.1% nationally in 2010, a very high proportion of current UKIP voters did not vote at the last election.

All this unerpins the claims by LAB in the Telegraph this morning that “Ukip voters will make Ed Miliband Prime Minister”. The report quotes a LAB figure:-

“The Tories lose a lot more than we do from a decent Ukip performance,” said a senior Labour campaign source. “The whole election could hang on how many of their current voters stick with them next May.”

I think that’s right and this will impact on Labour’s approach in the coming months. Ed Miliband’s team will be increasingly resistant to pressure from some in the party to make policy moves to attract UKIP votes.

That means, I’d suggest, no Labour promise on an EU in/out referendum.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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It looks as though Lord Ashcroft could be polling the slightly less marginal LAB-CON battlegrounds

Sunday, July 27th, 2014

Yesterday my wife was telephone polled for what appeared to be a seat specific survey in Bedford where we live. This is LAB target number 24 and was won by the Tories with a 3% majority in 2010.

Judging by the format of the questions the interview followed the same pattern as all his other marginals’ polling.

To me what’s interesting is that he appears to be moving up the scale to take in seats where the Tories have bigger majorities than those seats which he has polled twice in his first two rounds. This makes a lot of sense.

    The big GE2015 question is at what point will Lord Ashcroft find CON holds rather than losses? This will give us a better sense of what the outcome might be.

We have never had available such deep and intensive marginals’ polling before and it is great that Lord Ashcroft is happy to invest in this. This will really add to our understanding of the election and what is going on.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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What I cannot understand given their age profile is the lack of concern by UKIP voters about pensions and health

Wednesday, July 23rd, 2014

The table above is the latest issues polling by YouGov broken down by concerns for the country and for responders own families.

Given that the age profile of kippers is tilted to the higher end of the range their views on the lack of importance of, say, education is understandable. But what about health and pensions?

The detail from the poll shows that the 60+ group have the highest concern levels about these areas yet the UKIP voters don’t seem to worry about them that much.

    Could it be that those oldies currently backing Farage’s party are in good health and are reasonably well off.

This aspect of UKIP concerns has been showing for a long time. Today’s poll is not a fluke and is in line with what we’ve seen over the past year or so.

This has political implications. Chancellor Osborne has made a big move on pensions and the signs are that the Tory offer on this will feature strongly at GE2015. But if kippers aren’t that interested will it make any difference?

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Lord Ashcroft’s latest round of marginals polling finds that UKIP is hurting LAB more than CON

Tuesday, July 22nd, 2014

UKIP in lead in two of the seats polled

But there is good news for Ed Miliband

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble