Archive for the ' General Election' Category

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The other story from the latest Ashcroft marginals’ polling – the sharp decline of UKIP

Thursday, April 2nd, 2015

Like the GE10 LDs UKIP will be squeezed in the big party fights

Apart from the problems facing Nick Clegg and the latest on the CON-LD battles a striking feature of the latest wave of Ashcroft seat polling was the decline of UKIP.

These are all constituency fights where, with perhaps one possible exception, UKIP was not a contender and what happens – in every single case the purples see a sharpish reduction in their share.

The biggest slippage of all, Camborne+Redruth, had Farage’s party slipping from 26% in last June shortly after the Euros to 14% in this latest poll. At one stage UKIP had been seen as a serious contender there.

My guess is that when we see the latest from CON-LAB battlegrounds there’ll be a similar trend.

    UKIP’s vote will be squeezed where it is not in contention and at least two of the traditional three big parties are slugging it out. Farage’s party will struggle where it’s not relevant to the main battle at hand.

Where there isn’t a fierce constituency fight going on, the non-marginals in the red and blue heartlands, then UKIP might fare better. That is precisely what happened to the LDs in 2010. The Cleggasm did happen – but not in seats where it was going to affect the result.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Lord Ashcroft finds Clegg in trouble in Sheffield Hallam but the LDs holding as well can be expected elsewhere

Wednesday, April 1st, 2015

At this stage not naming the candidates becomes a defect



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Labour’s London progress could be masking a bigger trend: the party’s putting on most support where it doesn’t need it

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

The latest spate of London polls has been very positive for Labour with vote shares in the capital up 9% or more on 2010. It really does look as though the party is going to do very well there.

The only problem is that there aren’t that many CON targets apart from Hendon, Brentford & Isleworth,Enfield North, Ealing Central Acton, Croydon Central. Obviously the party’s got hopes in two or three Lib Dem seats but these are nothing like as important as gains from CON.

    In terms of being top party on seats each CON seat that LAB takes has the same impact as two gains from the LDs

As we’ve discussed here before FPTP elections are as much about where your vote is rather than how many. So if LAB is putting on a disproportionate increase of votes in one group of seats, London for instance, then that will be reflected in smaller elsewhere.

London has 73 constituencies out of a total English contingent of 533.

New ComRes Scottish phone poll points to 28 lost LAB seats

ComResSc

This poll is the first of its kind and is restricted to just the Scottish seats that Labour currently holds. The picture is what we’ve seen with other forms of polling and confirms the difficulties that exist north of the border. It’s estimated that this polling points to Labour losing 28 seats to the SNP.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

The second morning of GE2015

TNS, with its new online polling series, becomes the first internet firm since the Paxo events to report a CON lead, albeit a small one.

The LAB camp, meanwhile, will take some heart from the range of EdM findings featured above. The key thing here is the direction they are going. “Would he be up to the job of being PM?” – was 23 to 59 in February while the latest has that at 30 to 45. The recovery seems to be all coming from LAB voters who now back their man by 79% to 9.

I’ve long taken the view that Ed ratings amongst those who support the party are a good pointer. Labour’s got to maximise its vote on May 7th if it has to have a chance then faith in the leadership amongst party voters is key.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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How the CON to LAB swing has been changing in the marginals

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

What will tomorrow’s polls show – UP or DOWN?

The first number I hunt out when Lord Ashcroft publishes a new set of marginals’ polling is the average CON to LAB swing in the seats being surveyed. This gives a good pointer to the way things are going.

Tomorrow the good Lord is providing us with eight more separate constituency polls with the usual 1,000 sample in each.

The chart shows the movement in the swing in each wave of polling in LAB facing CON-held seats over the past year. The big move in his most recent wave was a small LAB recovery though the numbers are nothing like as good for the red team as they were last May.

What is tomorrow going to show?

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Lord Ashcroft becomes the third pollster in a row not to support the YouGov 4% LAB lead poll

Monday, March 30th, 2015

There’ve been three published polls since the Sunday Times YouGov LAB 4% lead poll. ComRes had 4% CON lead last night, Populus had the parties level pegging this morning and now Lord Ashcroft has a 2% CON lead.

So it is starting to look as though YouGov might have been an outlier. We’ll see what the firm’s latest poll has tonight.

It is starting to look as though the Tories are starting the campaign in a strongish position and Labour will be disappointed by the last 24 hours.

What we haven’t seen yet is an online poll since last Thursday’s event to record a CON lead.

ENGLAND ONLY figures @LordAshcroft poll
CON 40
LAB 34
LD 7
UKIP 11
GN 7

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

Monday, March 30th, 2015

The line up on the stage was decided by lots being drawn this morning. It is hard to work out who has come out best. Farage has Clegg on his left and Miliband on his right though he’s some way along from Cameron.

My guess is that Farage would have preferred to be closer, if not next to, Cameron. Sturgeon has done well – directly next to Dave.

Ed is centre stage – that might be good and it might be bad. Cameron will be please to be some places away from Farage. My betting tip, Leanne, is in a good poistion given her main opponent in Wales is Labour.

The SportingIndex betting market is intriguing.

Polling: Populus had LAB & CON level pegging and this afternoon at 4pm we’ll get the weekly Ashcroft poll. There’ll be a round up later.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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If teachers are as hostile to the Tories as they were 16 months ago that could have a huge impact on May 7th

Monday, March 30th, 2015

At almost exactly this point before GE2010 YouGov had CON ahead with teachers

In December 2013 that had become a 41% LAB lead

It was said in July that this was why Lynton was behind the Gove sacking

During one of the breaks at the big LSE GE forecasting conference on Friday I was asked for suggestions of ideas for interesting polling that could tell us more than what we see in standard surveys or constituency polling. After pondering this over the weekend I think that a repetition of the surveys above might give us a useful insight.

It was said at the time of the last reshuffle in the summer that Michael Gove was sacked as Education Secretary because Lynton Crosby had picked up the same voting switch amongst teachers of whom there are about 900 in each has constituency. Add on their close families and you’ve got a significant voting block.

The big question now is whether taking Gove out of the picture has had the desired effect or whether there is an ongoing hostility to the Tories which is still causing a disproportionate amount of switching.

New polling could be very enlightening.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble