Archive for the 'EU matters' Category

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Are Mandelson, Alexander and Clarke the best pro-Europeans can do?

Friday, May 17th, 2013

Henry G Manson on those FOR the EU

This week we’ve seen growing numbers of politicians past and present suggest that they’d be prepared to vote for Britain to leave the European Union in a referendum. Public opinion is currently leaning towards exit. The Prime Minister has declared he wants Britain to remain within the EU on new negotiated terms, but his own party is so divided that he can’t be relied upon to make a passionate case for this. So let’s look at the campaign wants to fight to keep Britain’s role in Europe.

The ‘British Influence’ campaign was launched in January this year. It’s funded entirely from the private sector. Its three front men are Lord Mandelson, Danny Alexander and Ken Clarke. They are a peculiar choice. All three are associated with the failed campaign to get Britain to join the Euro and all three come with notable baggage. 

Tony Blair once said that New Labour’s modernisation wouldn’t be complete until the Labour Party learned to love Peter Mandelson. It’s still waiting. Mandelson is associated with the worst excesses of New Labour, has a well cultivated reputation as a Machiavellian schemer and is disliked by Labour supporters and trade unionists. Mandelson’s support for David Miliband in the Labour Leadership contest caused two previously wavering MPs to Ed Miliband’s campaign. Having been European Commissioner, government minister and member of the House of Lords, Mandelson is seen as part of the Establishment the public are so wary of and disenchanted with. His recent remarks that the last Labour government ‘sent out search parties’  to increase immigration suggest a man that is out of touch with the public mood. Politics is increasingly in issue of trust. Does anyone in the UK actually trust Lord Mandelson about anything? 

Danny Alexander is a Cabinet Minister in a Treasury team implementing austerity policies. While George Osborne keeps his own profile down it’s often Alexander that is wheeled out to justify the latest unpopular cut. His party has seen its political support collapse since forming a Coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. Alexander may even struggle to keep hold of his own parliamentary seat. Previously Alexander’s experience included five years working at the Britain in Europe campaign. Given the organisation’s comprehensive failure to successfully make the case in positive economic times with a popular Prime Minister in support, it is hard to see what can be achieved now.

Ken Clarke is the most popular of the three however his decision to describe UKIP as ‘clowns’  backfired when his own party decided it needed to show the party and its supporters greater respect. Clarke is well in the last stages of his political career that would have arguably led to greater success had he not been so at odds with his party over his pro-European beliefs. Like the UKIP leader Clarke is one of few national politicians you see comfortably having a pint. But his best times are behind him.

The campaign to keep Britain in the European Union was always going to be tough. At a time when politicians are mistrusted why on Earth would you gamble on three politicians representing your cause to the public? The decision to make Peter Mandelson and Danny Alexander in two of the front men for the campaign already looks spectacularly ill-judged.

‘British Influence’ does not look to be equipped to deal with the very real economic, social and political insecurities and anxieties many voters are experiencing right now.  If Nigel Farage were to handpick his opponents I’m sure both Mandelson and Alexander would be top of the list. If this is all the pro-European lot has to offer then I’ll be expecting a sizeable vote for an EU exit when the time comes.

Henry G Manson



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Why I am betting that the Conservatives have a better than 9pc chance of winning most votes at the 2014 Euros

Tuesday, May 14th, 2013

Last week in a thread on which party would come out with most votes at next year’s Euro elections Richard Nabavi suggested that the best value bet was the 10/1 which is still available from Ladbrokes on the Conservatives.

His reasoning was that these are a set of elections where the Tories have traditionally done well irrespective of how they’ve been performing in national Westminster polls.

Even, as the interactive chart above shows, in the dark days for the party in 1999 when Blair’s Labour was at its peak, the blues won nationally on votes. In 2004 it was the same and, as expected, they did well last time out in 2009.

    Every set of EU elections since the party list voting system was introduced has seen the Tories come out on top. Why should 2014 be any different?

The betting favourite for next year is Ukip which has managed to seize the opportunity created by the party list voting system. But isn’t there a strong possibility that they are now going to be subject to much greater scrutiny. They’ve won lots of council sea and they now need to perform as elected representatives.

As we are seeing at the moment the backgrounds of those who won on May 2nd are being examined closely by their opponents and unfortunate blogs, Facebook entries and Tweets are being unearthed all the time.

Also the EU narrative is changing and who knows what it will look like in a year’s time?

All betting is a gamble but my view is that the Tories have a better than 9% chance of doing it. The current price is a good bet.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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The harsh fact for the Tories is that parties that appear divided get punished by the voters

Monday, May 13th, 2013

The Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul summed this up well in an excellent blog yesterday:-

“That’s the news list gone for most of the week, as the vote on the symbolic Eurosceptic amendment in the Commons will wipe out most else, not least because of the unfamiliarity of a whipped abstention by government ministers.

What are the Tories thinking of….? Too many of them believe in withdrawing from the EU, I conclude, and care passionately about it. That’s not ignoble. I have argued before that the case for and against EU membership is finely balanced. But their behaviour is astonishingly counterproductive.”

The best way for the referendum-backers to get what they desire is to do everything possible to ensure that Cameron leads his party to an overall majority at GE2015.

What is happening this week will have the opposite effect.

Ed Miliband’s luck continues.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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Miliband rules out an EU referendum promise: A strategic mistake or a correct reading of the public mood?

Saturday, May 11th, 2013

Osborne’s biographer, the, FT’s Janan Ganesh thinks that EdM has this right?

The latest issues polling from Ipsos-MORI



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LAB remains an odds-on favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 but don’t rule out Ukip

Saturday, March 23rd, 2013

This could be the opportunity for Farage?

There is little doubt that the big story in British electoral politics at the moment is the rise of Ukip.

In recent weeks this has moved from just something that is seen in the polls but to the party doing well in the first past the post elections.

    The second place in Eastleigh ahead of the Tories has marked a change in the political weather and over the past two weeks we have seen Ukip making gains in local by-elections.

One consequence of this is that the Conservative vote is in sharp decline and this is enabling the yellows to make local gains at the expense of the blues while losing badly to the red team. This could be the pattern for the May 2nd elections when the Tories are defending twice as many seats as the LDs and LAB combined.

Ukip say that their main objective will be building up vote share ahead of the 2014 Euro elections when because of the voting system they are well positioned to do very well. In 2009 they came in ahead of Labour and were second behind the Tories.

The joy for Ukip of the party list electoral system used for the Euros is that the election becomes about party brands rather than the individuals who will sit in the EU parliament.

With the possibility of the Sun backing the party then there must be a chance that they could top the poll. That 2/1 that they’ll win most votes could be a good bet.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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New Ipsos-MORI poll has LAB ahead on “Europe”

Monday, March 4th, 2013

And 28% of of GE2010 CON voters say Ukip’s got best policies



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The Foreign Exchange markets react to the Italian election results

Monday, February 25th, 2013



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LAB YouGov leads seems to be settling down at about 9 percent – a notch down on before the Cameron referendum pledge

Thursday, January 31st, 2013

Day to day movements in the polling are being watched very closely at the moment following the Cameron EU speech eight days ago. The latest, this morning, has CON 33: LAB 42: LD 10: Ukip 7.

This was designed to unify the Tories as well as to create a very sharp divding line between the blues and the other parties.

    Tory strategists were telling me on the day that it might take 10 days or more before we would see its real impact and we are getting near that point.

The problem, of course, is that other events intervene particuarly the GDP figures and the big boundaries vote on Tuesday.

YouGov is, of course, only one pollster and we’ve had just one phone survey since last week.

There was also this regular YouGov question in today’s poll.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news