Archive for the 'WHITE HOUSE RACE' Category


Gov. John Hickenlooper – my 80/1 longshot for the Democratic VP nomination

Wednesday, May 25th, 2016

This afternoon I got a tip from someone in Colorado that the state governor, John Hickenlooper, was in with a good chance of becoming Hillary’s VP choice.

I quickly went into Betfair and got £11 at an average price of 81.59 without knowing a thing about him. I then Tweeted what I’d done and since then the price has moved in sharply.

A little bit of time on Google later indeed confirmed that he was widely being talked about for this role and other factors seemed right.

Clinton’s big problem is that she cannot possibly risk choosing a senator from a state which currently has a Republican governor. The battle for the Senate in November is going to be critical and the her party needs four gains to win control. She simply cannot add to the pressure by choosing one of a number of likely Senator VP picks.

The way it works is that if a Senator was elected VP then a vacancy would occur which would be filled by the choice of the Governor in the relevant state. That rules out some front runners in the Veepstakes.

Hickenlooper, and I just love that name, comes over very well and his being on the ticket could help the Democrats to take the state in the presidential election.

Mike Smithson


Trump remains the value bet for the Presidency

Friday, May 20th, 2016


It’s time to take the prospect of him winning outright seriously

No-one has got rich betting against Donald Trump this election campaign and now is unlikely to be the time to start. He’s currently best-priced at 5/2 with Ladbrokes, which in a two-horse race implies a serious weakness on his part.

In many ways, he is a seriously weak candidate. He’s never held any public office before, never mind elected public office. He has very little active support from within his own party’s hierarchy. His favourability ratings remain deep in the red. He has a tendency to speak and act in a way that many find offensive. Certainly, he has a vocal and enthused base but presidential elections are won and lost in the middle two deciles whereas a nomination can be – and in his case was – sealed in the first.

So why do his prospects suddenly look quite rosy? In two words: Hillary Clinton.

Hillary is also a weak candidate. By far her biggest achievement so far was going into the primary campaign with her only serious opposition being an angry septuagenarian self-declared socialist. By far her biggest failure is that at the end of May, she’s still failed to shake him off. True, the nomination is now all but secure but rather than a procession to the convention, Sanders is still winning states. Quite simply, she is not popular.

Not that she necessarily needs to be popular; a sufficiently competent and anodyne opponent would be sufficient to channel Never-Trump anxiety to the Democrat. Unfortunately for her, her ratings are too poor even for that. Hillary’s net favourability rating currently stands at about -14 and has only got worse during 2016.

A little while ago, even that would have been enough. At the beginning of April, Trump’s favourability rating was down at -31.5, with exactly a 2:1 ratio against him. Since then though there’s been a marked improvement and his current net score is -17. That’s still historically very poor but it’s now well within range of Hillary.

Those figures find their parallel in the head-to-heads, where Hillary’s lead has been trimmed to just 2.2%; it was (just) in double figures seven weeks ago. Two of the last four polls released have put Trump ahead. That might just be the coincidence that at least one of the two pollsters, Rasmussen, seems to have a structural bias to Trump but all the same, it’s notable.

Of course, US elections are won in the Electoral College, and hence the states, rather than the nationwide vote shares but the two are closely linked. For the moment, we simply don’t have enough state-level data to form a judgement about whether either candidate is piling up votes in the wrong places. Of the six most marginal states in 2012, two (Colorado and Virginia) haven’t had any Trump v Clinton polling conducted this year, and the other four (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania), polling is sporadic and erratic: the range of results in the last three polls in each state varies by at least 9%, and we have to go back to February for some of those.

One thing we should bear in mind, however, is that ten of the eleven most marginal states were won by Obama last time. Given Trump’s unusual political background, UNS may not be as relevant as usual but the fact remains that there’s quite a lot of low-hanging Democrat fruit with only North Carolina’s fifteen votes particularly vulnerable the other way.

There are still over five months between now and election day and a lot can and will happen in that time. The end of the Democrat race, the vice-presidential picks, the conventions, the debates, the campaigns, the interviews, the off-the-cuff comments, attack ads, media investigations; all could have an effect. Hillary remains the professional in the race and has the patience and experience to handle all that; that should favour her. Yet Trump has had a knack of exploiting his opponents’ weak spots and with Clinton he has a long record to work with, while Hillary has noticeably twice failed to do likewise: first losing to Obama and then taking far longer than should have been the case to see off Sanders.

Clinton is rightly favourite. The numbers still just about favour her and the momentum running the other way may be as much about Trump fading from TV screens now the Republic race is run; she’s also less likely to make serious mistakes. But for all that, she’s a dull Washington insider and a poor campaigner; Trump is not. The best odds suggest he has a 29% chance. I reckon it should be topside of forty.

David Herdson


The Clinton-Trump battle could be a lot closer than anybody thought

Tuesday, May 17th, 2016

The polling average in the chart from PoliticalWire tells its own story. This is beginning to look as though next November’s election is set to be very tight.

What’s happening with the Republicans is that the party has an election to fight in six months time and it is coming together to get behind the presumptive nominee. If Trump is going to be the flag carrier then Trump is the one who will be supported even with all the reservations about him. He’s going to be a tough opponent for the Clinton machine.

The latest NBC/Survey Monkey poll has Clinton leading Trump by 75% among black voters and a 37% one amongst Hispanics. She is ahead with women but Trump is leading overall amongst men and white voters.

Both the likely nominees are polarising in their own ways and both have very poor favourability ratings.

There’s been a lot of talk about the VP choices that the two will make with Mrs. Palin being suggested for Trump.

On the Democratic side there’s been a lot of talk about Clinton teaming up with Senator Elizabeth Warren who would have an appeal to those who have supported 74 year old Bernie Sanders. The only trouble with this scenario is that the battle for the Senate is going to be very tight which would make it more difficult choosing a sitting Senator. A vacancy for a few months could have big implications.

In the betting Hillary has remained relatively stable but that could change.

Mike Smithson


Cruz drops out after big defeat in Indiana. Trump is declared the presemumptive nominee

Wednesday, May 4th, 2016



A big win for Trump in Indiana overnight has caused Ted Cruz to step aside and the Republican National Committee to declare the property billionaire as the presemumptive nominee.

In the Democratic race Hillary got beaten by Sanders but because of the way the party allocates delegates it is now almost impossible for him to secure enough for the nomination.

Hillary though had been damaged by her failure to win in the state.

Regularly updated odds: Winner 2016 White House Race

Mike Smithson


Why Indiana next Tuesday is so crucial for both Trump and Cruz

Friday, April 29th, 2016

James Burt (TheWhiteRabbit) looks at the battle

Following Trump’s crushing victory in five north-eastern states on Tuesday, attention has now turned to next week’s GOP primary in Indiana.

Indiana could prove a critical state on the route to Trump securing the nomination.

There are ten states left to go to the polls, but four are ‘winner take all’ states where the result is foregone. Another three allocate their delegates proportionally, which means the difference between good and bad performances is no more than twenty delegates between them. And in West Virginia Trump will be battling some arcane delegate allocation rules, rather than Kasich or Cruz.

That leaves just Indiana and California as critical states – and the latter will be among the last to elect, with plenty of hostile terrain for Trump between the two.

Hence Indiana will be Trump’s last chance to land a significant victory for some time, with a fairly hefty 57 delegates up for grabs.

Indiana will allocate 27 to the state winner and a further three to the winner of the state’s ten congressional districts. That means a relatively small lead for Trump over Cruz could mean 45 delegates or more; a small lead for Cruz could easily see Trump reduced to twelve or fewer.

Pre-Tuesday polls show Trump between 5 and 8 points ahead of Cruz. Trump has, if anything, created more momentum this week and is now regularly exceeding the polls. Trump should now be (and indeed is) firm favourite to secure Indiana and take a major step to the nomination. To put it another way: Cruz needs a big upset.

If Trump does win in Indiana, then all he will need to do to get to 1,237 delegates is convert his current polling leads in California. Even if Trump fails to make it across the line prior to the convention, he can now rely on 20 to 30 Pennsylvania delegates who are officially uncommitted but have expressed a preference to vote for him.

This gives Trump a big target to aim at – he deserves skinny odds of 1.28 with PaddyPower to win on the first ballot.

James Burt (TheWhiteRabbit)


Sweeping victories across the board for Trump and a good night for Hillary wins in the Dem races

Wednesday, April 27th, 2016


The overnight results

Real Clear Politics

The Republican nomination

Winner 2016 White House Race


Tonight’s US primaries – “North East Tuesday”

Tuesday, April 26th, 2016


Pulpstar on the White House Race


On the Democrat side, expect Hillary to add to her total – the question for Sanders will be whether he can keep the damage to under 300 pledged delegates and perhaps scrape out a win in Rhode Island – which looks his best shot. The contest was over long ago anyways.

On the GOP side, the states run through as follows

Delaware A foregone conclusion, the only thing of interest will be whether Trump can beat his score of 60.5% he achieved in New York. Winner takes all, chalk up 16 delegates for Trump.

Connecticut All about Trump vs 50% here- both in the state and individual congressional districts. The rules are identical to New York where Trump passed 50% easily – but the polling is on a knife edge here for Trump vs 50%.

Rhode Island Trump will score around 50% again here, but it is proportional so he’ll take 9 – 10 of the delegates. Trump vs 50%, alot less critical here than in Connecticut.

Maryland Winner takes all by congressional district (And State)

Going by the map and polling:~  Trump 43, Kasich 27, Ted 24

Trump will win the state by a YUuuuuuuuuuge margin but watch out for wide geographic variability which may well hand some CDs to Kasich near DC (4, 5, 8) are the ones to watch I think.

Doubt Ted will get any delegates here(His vote is too weak and diluted at that)… and apparently Kasich hasn’t filed full slates in some CDs including 4 and 8… we shall see !


Trump will win by a wide margin, that isn’t in doubt I think. What is more interesting is which unbound delegates are elected to head off to Cleveland.

Here is the full list  (Pity the poor voters in CD10 where they will need to vote for up to 3 of those dels).

A lot of people I expect will not bother, and Cruz looked to be more organised on this front. However prominent  TV/Radio personality Sean Hannity has made a point of listing all the delegates on his site which might help Trump supporters if they are intelligent enough to help themselves…
Lord knows who you vote for if you want Kasich to be Pres though..

My own (Could be very inaccurate) calcs make out 46 delegates for Trump

Even though I expect Cruz voters to be more informed and organised than Trump voters, Trump has the numbers and Cruz can’t be as organised as he is in a caucus. Once we know the delegates we can work out expected UNBOUND numbers for the candidates. Unless they Welch on CD winner commitment…



Trump set for big victory in New York – Hillary projected to win Dems race

Wednesday, April 20th, 2016


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