Archive for the 'WHITE HOUSE RACE' Category

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Cruz drops out after big defeat in Indiana. Trump is declared the presemumptive nominee

Wednesday, May 4th, 2016

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A big win for Trump in Indiana overnight has caused Ted Cruz to step aside and the Republican National Committee to declare the property billionaire as the presemumptive nominee.

In the Democratic race Hillary got beaten by Sanders but because of the way the party allocates delegates it is now almost impossible for him to secure enough for the nomination.

Hillary though had been damaged by her failure to win in the state.

Regularly updated odds: Winner 2016 White House Race

Mike Smithson





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Why Indiana next Tuesday is so crucial for both Trump and Cruz

Friday, April 29th, 2016

James Burt (TheWhiteRabbit) looks at the battle

Following Trump’s crushing victory in five north-eastern states on Tuesday, attention has now turned to next week’s GOP primary in Indiana.

Indiana could prove a critical state on the route to Trump securing the nomination.

There are ten states left to go to the polls, but four are ‘winner take all’ states where the result is foregone. Another three allocate their delegates proportionally, which means the difference between good and bad performances is no more than twenty delegates between them. And in West Virginia Trump will be battling some arcane delegate allocation rules, rather than Kasich or Cruz.

That leaves just Indiana and California as critical states – and the latter will be among the last to elect, with plenty of hostile terrain for Trump between the two.

Hence Indiana will be Trump’s last chance to land a significant victory for some time, with a fairly hefty 57 delegates up for grabs.

Indiana will allocate 27 to the state winner and a further three to the winner of the state’s ten congressional districts. That means a relatively small lead for Trump over Cruz could mean 45 delegates or more; a small lead for Cruz could easily see Trump reduced to twelve or fewer.

Pre-Tuesday polls show Trump between 5 and 8 points ahead of Cruz. Trump has, if anything, created more momentum this week and is now regularly exceeding the polls. Trump should now be (and indeed is) firm favourite to secure Indiana and take a major step to the nomination. To put it another way: Cruz needs a big upset.

If Trump does win in Indiana, then all he will need to do to get to 1,237 delegates is convert his current polling leads in California. Even if Trump fails to make it across the line prior to the convention, he can now rely on 20 to 30 Pennsylvania delegates who are officially uncommitted but have expressed a preference to vote for him.

This gives Trump a big target to aim at – he deserves skinny odds of 1.28 with PaddyPower to win on the first ballot.

James Burt (TheWhiteRabbit)



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Sweeping victories across the board for Trump and a good night for Hillary wins in the Dem races

Wednesday, April 27th, 2016

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The overnight results

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Real Clear Politics

The Republican nomination

Winner 2016 White House Race



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Tonight’s US primaries – “North East Tuesday”

Tuesday, April 26th, 2016

Clinton+Trump

Pulpstar on the White House Race

Dems

On the Democrat side, expect Hillary to add to her total – the question for Sanders will be whether he can keep the damage to under 300 pledged delegates and perhaps scrape out a win in Rhode Island – which looks his best shot. The contest was over long ago anyways.

On the GOP side, the states run through as follows

Delaware A foregone conclusion, the only thing of interest will be whether Trump can beat his score of 60.5% he achieved in New York. Winner takes all, chalk up 16 delegates for Trump.

Connecticut All about Trump vs 50% here- both in the state and individual congressional districts. The rules are identical to New York where Trump passed 50% easily – but the polling is on a knife edge here for Trump vs 50%.

Rhode Island Trump will score around 50% again here, but it is proportional so he’ll take 9 – 10 of the delegates. Trump vs 50%, alot less critical here than in Connecticut.

Maryland Winner takes all by congressional district (And State)

Going by the map and polling:~  Trump 43, Kasich 27, Ted 24

Trump will win the state by a YUuuuuuuuuuge margin but watch out for wide geographic variability which may well hand some CDs to Kasich near DC (4, 5, 8) are the ones to watch I think.

Doubt Ted will get any delegates here(His vote is too weak and diluted at that)… and apparently Kasich hasn’t filed full slates in some CDs including 4 and 8… we shall see !

Pennsylvania

Trump will win by a wide margin, that isn’t in doubt I think. What is more interesting is which unbound delegates are elected to head off to Cleveland.

Here is the full list  (Pity the poor voters in CD10 where they will need to vote for up to 3 of those dels).

A lot of people I expect will not bother, and Cruz looked to be more organised on this front. However prominent  TV/Radio personality Sean Hannity has made a point of listing all the delegates on his site which might help Trump supporters if they are intelligent enough to help themselves…
Lord knows who you vote for if you want Kasich to be Pres though..

My own (Could be very inaccurate) calcs make out 46 delegates for Trump

Even though I expect Cruz voters to be more informed and organised than Trump voters, Trump has the numbers and Cruz can’t be as organised as he is in a caucus. Once we know the delegates we can work out expected UNBOUND numbers for the candidates. Unless they Welch on CD winner commitment…

Pulpstar



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Trump set for big victory in New York – Hillary projected to win Dems race

Wednesday, April 20th, 2016

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nullCNNPolitics   Political News  Analysis and Opinion

Live GOP nominee betting

Live betting – Winner 2016 White House Race



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And so the 2016 White House Race moves to delegate-rich New York

Tuesday, April 19th, 2016

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Trump and Clinton look set to win but it’s all about delegates

In recent days there’s been a big improvement in Trump’s betting position following his disappointment in Wisconsin two weeks when he dropped to below a 50%.

Here in New York it’s all about delegates in the GOP race where Trump needs to win as many of the 27 congressional as possible. Overall in the state there are 95 delegates at stake.A total of 1237, as we keep on saying, are requred to be sure of the nomination.

He’s been over the 50% mark in most polls and ideally Trump needs all of the 95 – the big question will be how far short he is.

In the Democratic Race Hillary Clinton needs a solid win in the state where she used to be a Senator. Things have gone a bit sour of late and clear victory would stead the nerves.

Mike Smithson





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The Republican dilemma: Would dumping Trump be worth the hassle?

Saturday, April 9th, 2016

And if it is, then what?

It is something of an irony that after months of saying outrageous things and winning more and more support off the back of it, Trump’s downfall might well be due to a sensible answer. There is, after all, nothing unusual or wrong in the principle that people who break the law should be punished. If it doesn’t feel right to apply the punishment, chances are the law shouldn’t be there in the first place. But that’s all by the by; the point is that this last week, if the wheels didn’t quite come off Trump’s campaign, they certainly had a screw loose.

Adding to that, his nomination prospects took a bad knock in Wisconsin, where he landed just six delegates to Cruz’s 36, meaning that the target of 1237 looks to be slipping back beyond the horizon. Unless Trump can find renewed momentum, we are now heading for a contested convention; one which has thrown up a whole series of horrible questions for the delegates.

In a nutshell, the problem is this: On the one hand, Trump has a far better mandate than any other candidate. He’s won twice as many states as Cruz and has a comfortable lead in both delegates and votes cast. Any normal candidate in that position would be declared the moral victor and proceed straight to the nomination. But on the other hand, Trump isn’t a normal candidate. He is the embodiment of Mr Marmite. He’s simultaneously led the Republican race for ten months while also recording truly dire favourability ratings (currently a net score of about -35, against -15 for Clinton, -22 for Cruz and +7 for Kasich). These feed directly into the head-to-heads against Clinton: Trump trails her by about 8%, against a deficit of about 4% for Cruz and a lead of 5½% for Kasich.

The figures are so bad and Trump’s propensity to do something monumentally stupid is sufficiently high that there’s a lot more than the White House at stake. If nominated, his unpopularity could run through the down-ticket Republicans like a stomach bug on a badly-plumbed cruise ship.

Which is why there’s so much speculation about the convention by-passing Trump if he fails to reach 1237. Not just speculation either: despite his formidable lead, Trump is only just odds-on for the nomination – or put another way, the markets feel that the chances of someone else being nominated are well in excess of 40%.

That feels to me to be too high. For all Trump’s negatives, the other horn of the dilemma is that the set of alternatives to his rejection is just as bad.

But before we get there, a quick reaffirmation of why the odds on a non-Trump candidate have come in so far. Apart from Trump’s unpopularity in the country and in the party, his options if he leaves Cleveland with nothing but a bloody nose aren’t good. He cannot do a Teddy Roosevelt and run as a Bull Moose-type third-party candidate. Quite simply, the logistics don’t work. The deadlines for independent candidates will have passed in many states, while others have sore-loser laws that prevent a candidate in a primary running under any other description in the general. A bitter Trump might be able to run-to-spoil but he couldn’t run-to-win.

What he and his supporters could do is make a lot of noise from the sidelines and try to sabotage Lyin’ Ted (perhaps by then, Stealin’ Ted too), in some other way. There, Cruz’s opponents have two trump cards to play: his eligibility and the sex scandal. Both stories have gone quiet recently but there’s enough for an embittered and reckless character to play with on both to create merry mayhem.

And even if Trump wasn’t firing broadsides at Cruz in September and October, the fact remains that the Texas senator is unpopular himself and trails Clinton. Why replace one loser with another?

However, here we’re asking what the Republicans should do rather than what they will do – which is a rather different question and one which turns on what they think they should do. The question is as much psychology as psephology. Also, as Pulpstar noted, Cruz’s Tea Party activists have been rather more adept at being nominated as delegates than Trump’s enthusiastic amateurs. Consequently, whether or not it’d be in his party’s best interests to nominate him, Cruz would be in a very strong position to work the convention once delegates become unbound.

Cruz also has the advantage that he’s the only candidate besides Trump who delegations can vote for on the first ballot, assuming that Rule 40b remains as currently written i.e. all candidates need the support of at least eight states to permit their nomination to the convention. If Cruz can sneak in supporters who are initially pledged elsewhere, that will give him considerable leverage once delegates start becoming unbound.

As an aside, we might ask why candidates don’t pay more attention to getting their supporters nominated. The simple answer is that in any political system, competitors for office will focus on where the levers of power lie. Since primaries became near-universal, killing off contested conventions, it didn’t matter who delegates actually preferred as long as they were mandated to do as the electorate told them and as long as they electorate came to a clear decision. The primaries, not the convention, held the levers of power: win the primaries and the rest took care of itself. Unless no-one wins the primaries.

But if Trump is unelectable and has gone out of his way to alienate his party, and if Cruz is also too risky and too unpopular a candidate, what then? The obvious answer is John Kasich. Sure, he’s only won one state (his own) and has a measly number of delegates but he did at least run and has decent favourability ratings. There are at least credible reasons the party could put to the electorate to reject Trump and Cruz – how would they justify adding Kasich to that list too?

When it comes down to it, the other options look so bad that the sensible thing would just be to accept the moral mandate, back Trump and then try to put as much distance between him and the party as possible. As such, I still think his odds are too long and offer value. All the same, the Republicans have been remarkably adept of late at doing anything other than the sensible thing. Makes for absorbing viewing at least.

David Herdson





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The challenge for Trump gets harder after doing worse than all the polls in Wisconsin

Wednesday, April 6th, 2016

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Real Clear Politics

And another loss for Hillary

In spite of a late poll showing him 10% in the lead Donald Trump was soundly beaten by Ted Cruz in the Wisconsin primary. All the delegates bar three go to Cruz.

In the Democratic race Sanders chalked up another victory though because the party allocates delegates proportionately this has far less impact on the mathematics of that nomination race.

What was striking in both races is how Trump and Clinton performed substantially worse than the polling.

My big lay bet on Trump eight days ago is looking good. The question is when I cash out.

What the Wisconsin exit polls overnight showed was the overwhelming hostility there is to Trump amongst many Republican primary voters. 37% said they’d vote for Clinton if Trump was the nominee.

The result will give a real boost to the anti-Trump factions and reinforce their hopes that the real estate billionaire can be denied a majority of delegates.

If Trump had won in Wisconsin it was hard to see how he could be stopped.

Mike Smithson