Archive for the 'WHITE HOUSE RACE' Category

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Trump has clear lead three days before the Fox GOP candidates debates featuring 20 hopefuls

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

But how much is name recognition rather than real support?

This is a very big week on the road to the major political event of 2016 – the election of the next US president. Barack Obama will have served two terms and is barred from staying any longer. This means that both parties will have tight nomination fights.

The contrast between the Democrats and Republicans at this stage is very sharp. With the former the presence of Hillary Clinton has until now, acted as a huge disincentive for others to throw their hats into the ring. Things have slightly eased off in recent days with the reports that V-P Joe Biden might be considering a run but it’s hard to see a viable Hillary alternative. But things can change.

This is all small beer compared the GOP nominee selection where everything has been thrown apart by  the arrival in the field of property multi-billionaire turned TV star, Donald Trump who always seems to be making the headlines.

The polling has him ahead for the nomination and his presence is over-shadowing everybody else and there are many in that latter category. There’s a suggestion that if Trump doesn’t get his party’s backing then he might try and run alone – a move that would be very tricky for the party.

Some of the declared contenders will get their first big public showing in Thursday’s debates on Fox where there will be two debates. One will be for those currently struggling in the GOP nominee polls and the other for the more established players.

Tonight there’s a 14 person debate in New Hampshire – the first state that will be holding a full-blown primary in the New Year.

Mike Smithson

 





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At some stage the Hillary Clinton email row is going to impact on the nomination betting

Saturday, July 25th, 2015

Surely she’s got less than an 83% chance of becoming the Democratic party nominee?

For those who’ve not been following the WH2016 race some of the shine is coming off Hillary’s nomination chances because of the email row. This relates to the period that she was Obama’s Secretary of State and the allegation that some of her communications were via a private email account that wasn’t subject to the the levels of security that her official account would have had.

The latest developments, see the ABC clip above, has led to some observers describing her campaign to be next president as “faltering”.

What makes this interesting from a betting point of view is that she has become such a massive odds-on favourite to be the Democratic party nominee. Overnight I’ve wagered several hundred pounds laying her on Betfair – effectively betting at longer than 4/1 that she won’t be selected. This is a trading bet not a prediction.

There’s a very long way to go anyway until the primaries start and a lot can happen in the meantime. Potential contenders who’d held back because they felt that Hillary was a foregone conclusion might start to reconsider. In the past day there’s been some speculation about the Vice-President, Joe Biden, and his price saw some movement.

Mike Smithson





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Donald Trump now topping a poll in race for the Republican nomination

Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

Should we take this seriously or is it just a passing fad?

With all the focus on Labour’s trials and tribulations as it goes through its leadership election we have not really focused on the coming fight for the White House in 2016 which almost certainly will be the biggest political painting event of next year.

On the Democratic Party side things look relatively settled with Hillary Clinton the odds on favourite. The Republican battle looks to be the most interesting with several names coming in the latest being the property billionaire and TV presenter, Donald Trump.

New polling featured in the clip above suggests that he is doing very well and has even the potential to win the prize. I find it hard to take his bid seriously and his comments about John McCain in the second clip reinforce that view.

At the stage polling can often be skewed to the best known which is what might be happening here.

William hills currently have him add 28/1 for the nomination which just might be a good punt.

The strong favourite for the Republican nomination is the brother of George Bush, ex Florida Governor, Jeb Bush.

Can Trump managed to get himself into a situation where his bid is taken very seriously? I’m not so sure but he might. American elections can operate very strangely.

Mike Smithson





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We are more than six months away from the primaries yet the betting suggests that WH16 is almost all settled

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Hillary Jebb 2016

Another Clinton-Bush encounter? Maybe. Maybe not

With all the focus on the British general election and its aftermath we’ve tended to ignore what’s set to be massive political betting event – the 2016 White House race. What I like about them is the whole series of events and elections that lead to the first Tuesday in November when the voters actually decide.

With Barack Obama due to step down we have serious battles in prospect for both the Democratic party and Republican nomination. The former looks the most settled with Hillary Clinton, who’ll be 69 on polling day, looking very strong for the former and George Bush’s brother, Jeb, appearing very competitive for the latter.

The best bookie price you can get on Hillary for the nomination is 2/7 with Bet365 which to my mind is crazy given the time period and the potential for things to go wrong.

In the GOP race Bet365 have Jeb Bush at 9/4 with Rubio on 7/2 and Scott Walker on 4/1.

I’ve still got hope that my 50/1 bet on Rand Paul might come good.

Mike Smithson





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It is looking like being 1992 all over again

Sunday, April 12th, 2015

The battle for the White House in 2016 looks like being a repeat of 1992

Sky News say

Hillary Clinton is today expected to confirm she is running for the Democratic nomination to be the president of the US, effectively firing the starting gun on the 2016 election campaign.

The former Secretary of State and First Lady has long been the runaway favourite to be the party’s candidate for the election next November.

It is expected she will make the announcement via a video message on Twitter before heading off to a first campaign event in Iowa.

I’ve been long of the opinion, that were she to run in 2016, she would win the nomination for her party.

But many people said that back in 2008 and we all know how that turned out. I expect she’ll win the nomination, as there is no Barack Obama de nos jours.

Back in February 2014, I wrote the reasons why I was expecting the Democratic Party to win against the Republicans, nothing much has changed my mind, except Jeb Bush is now the favourite to the Republican candidate.

There’s two family names that have a tendency to polarise opinions in America, one of them is Clinton, the other is Bush, mostly because of Jeb’s brother, George W Bush, the 43rd President.

Fans of electoral trivia maybe interested to know that the last time the Republican Party won a Presidential Election without a Bush or a Nixon on the ticket was 1928. But as this little cartoon explains, Presidential election precedents do get broken, regularly.

All the odds on the US Presidential election are available here.

TSE

UPDATE – She’s confirmed she is running – see the YouTube video below

 



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Exactly a year to go before the WH2016 primaries start and Senator Elizabeth Warren is moving into the frame

Tuesday, January 13th, 2015

Could she beat Hillary for Democratic party nomination

Last night I had an 8/1 bet on Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, to be the Democratic party nominee in next year’s White House race. She’s now second favourite in the betting and looks like she’d be a serious challenger if she decided to go for it.

Until now the widespread assumption has been that this is going to be a shoo in for Hillary Clinton who is the odds on favourite, just as she was eight years ago before the tough fight with Obama.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has ruled out being a contender but that has not stopped a growing movement to persuade her to put her hat into the ring. It’s reported that 200,000 have now joined an effort called “Run Warren Run” which has started raising money.

Like Hillary Senator Warren is in her 60s and has come to the fore in recent months over the bank bailouts and the need for much tougher regulation of the big financial institutions. She’s lucid and a convincing speaker. She comes over well on TV and looks as though she would do well in the TV debates.

The big question mark is whether she’s interested and how she’ll respond to the growing clamour.

At 8/1 she seems a good bet.

Mike Smithson

Ranked as one of the most influential over 50s on Twitter




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My 50-1 shot for the WH2016 Republican nomination has an overwhelming victory in the CPAC straw poll

Monday, March 10th, 2014

Each March in the US there’s the Conservative Political Action Conference attended by many leading GOP figures and at which there is a straw poll on who the delegates favour as party nominee for next time. Last year it was won by Kentucky senator, Rand Paul. This year he did it again by an increased margin.

Paul, of course, is the son of Ron Paul who was a leading contender in the 2012 race for the nomination.

Back in November 2012 shortly after Barack Obama’s re-election I tipped and bet on Rand Paul AT 50/1 for the nomination.

Those backing Paul believe that his strong his libertarian message particularly on things like civil liberties could resonate with young people and minorities – key voter segments where the party has had problems in the past.

Back in November 2012 I wrote:

“A big thing that Rand Paul’s likely to have going for him is his father’s extraordinarily enthusiastic and well organised supporter base that at one stage during the summer threatened to make life very difficult for the Romney camp.

In many states ostensibly won by Romney Paul supporters managed to get themselves elected as convention delegates and could have been in a powerful position. It was only when Ron himself intervened to call his troops off that Romney looked secure.

Rand Paul will be very strong in the states that have party caucuses rather than primaries and he’s likely to have a well-honed fund-raising machine.

Does he stand a chance? I don’t know but as we get closer the betting price is likely to get a lot tighter and it’s nice to be sitting on a 50/1 bet.”

Long-standing PBers will recall that I got on Barack Obama at 50/1 in May 2005. It would be very satisfying to do that again.

The latest best bookie price on Rand Paul is 9/1.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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Why at 40-1 John Kerry is worth a punt for the 2016 Democratic party nomination

Friday, February 21st, 2014

He could be ideally placed if his Middle East peace plan succeeds

The first thing I did on my return last night from an intensive tour of Israel and Palestine was to place a bet at 50/1 with Ladbrokes on the defeated 2004 presidential candidate, John Kerry, for the Democratic party nomination in the 2016 White House race. Alas the bookie has now cut the price to 25/1 though you can still get him at 40/1 with other firms.

Before getting on my flight home a senior official in the Netanyahu adminstration told me that he rated the chances of Kerry’s peace initiative succeeding at 50-50. Given the awful history of getting agreement in this conflict that seemed a pretty strong assessment.

This broadly echoed the views of many of those I spoke to on both sides of the divide about where things stand. Kerry is putting a massive effort into finding a solution and trying to bring the parties together.

There are, of course, huge hurdles ahead and Kerry has to persude both the Israelis and Palestinians to bite the bullet on issues that are so central to them including the biggest of all – recognising each side’s right to exist.

    But the evidence from the polling is that both the Palestinian and Israeli peoples are getting increasingly tired of the status quo and might just be ready to countenance a historic compromise.

There would probably have to be referenda amongst the Israelis and Palestinians if a draft deal is reached.

If this did work out it would be a massive boost to the 70 year old Kerry and could provide a great platform for him to try, once more, to become president. What looks like a shoo-in for Kerry’s predecessor as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, could become an interesting contest.

Kerry, of course, is denying that he’s interested in the presidency but my guess is that the accolades he’d get if he pulled this off could change his mind. Whatever I think it is worth a punt at long odds.

  • I plan to write a fuller report over the weekend on what was an extraordinary and stimulating visit
  • Mike Smithson

    Ranked in top 35 most influential over 50s on Twitter