PPP poll on the N Hampshire GOP race for WH2016 has Rand Paul on 28% – 3% up on fav Rubio. goo.gl/RW2Ih twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 26, 2013

Back on November 17th 2012 I backed Ron Paul’s son, at 50/1, to be the WH2016 Republican nominee.

A PPP poll in the first full primary state of New Hampshire had him at just 4%.

Today a new PPP New Hampshire poll is out putting Rand in the lead on 28% – 3% ahead of the betting favourite, Mario Rubio.

My thinking six months ago was that a big thing that Rand Paul’s likely to have going for him is his father’s extraordinarily enthusiastic and well organised supporter base that at one stage during last summer threatened to make life very difficult for the Romney camp.

In many states ostensibly won by Romney Paul supporters managed to get themselves elected as convention delegates and could have been in a powerful position. It was only when Ron himself intervened to call his troops off that Romney looked secure.

Rand Paul will be very strong in the states that have party caucuses rather than primaries and he’s likely to have a well-honed fund-raising machine.

Since November Rand has been more in the public eye following a spectacular 13 hour filibuster in the Senate.

Regular followers of PB will know that I love long-standing at big odds placed years in advance. I backed and tipped Barack Obama at 50/1 in May 2005. Maybe my Rand Paul 50/1 bet will also come good?

Mike Smithson

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Follow @MSmithsonPB

Congratulations to Cityunslicker who takes the top slot

When the William Hill/Politicalbetting White House race prediction competition was announced in September nobody could have envisaged that we would have to wait for two months after the election before getting a final outcome.

Entrants were asked simply to predict, down to two decimal points, who the winning candidate would be and the size of the winning margin.

On the night it looked as though an Obama popular vote lead of about 2% would do it. Since then those who predicted slightly more than that have watched as their numbers started to move into the frame only to move out of contention as the vote gap grew large and larger.

Now with New York state finally in we can settle the competition. The overall Obama vote margin was 3.849% and the nearest entry to that was Cityunslicker with a prediction of 3.85%. He takes the first prize of £500 worth of free bets.

Awarding the second and third place prizes has provded a bit more tricky with three entrants on 3.88% – Peter_from_Putney, David_Kendrick and Andrew. Because there’s a three-way tie for the two remaining prizes the timing of the entries has been the decider with Peter from Putney allocated second prize of £350 worth of free bets and David Kendrick the third prize of £150 worth of bets.

Can the winners please drop me an email so we can sort out details of getting the prizes to them?

Finally a big word of thanks to Graham Sharpe of William Hill for making this competition possible.

Can I also thank AndyJs for the brilliant job he has done monitoring the vote share and the hundreds of entries.

The big question now is where the winners should invest their prize. I quite like the William Hill Italian election 5/1 that Berlesconi will become Italian PM during 2013.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

A great recap of the political betting story of the year

To think that exactly a year ago we were waiting for the Iowa caucuses and the massive shock of Rik Santorum’s unexpected which for many of us led to big profits.

I love White House races and this one was superb seeing my longest odds winning bet ever, a lay of Romney at 1/100 in one of the early caucuses.

My big regret is that I didn’t risk more on an Obama victory.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Three weeks on from election day the Romney total gets closer to the 47% mark. docs.google.com/spreadsheet/cc… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 28, 2012

And there are several million votes still to be counted

Thanks to PB’s AndyJS for the great work he’s doing tracking the final total in the 2012 White House race. His spreadsheet is being updated several times as day and has become just about the most authoritative source for the outcome. Andy is also doing the Wikipedia page.

Just three weeks ago, the day after the election, it looked as though Obama’s overall lead was about 2% and this was the number used to calculate the inevitable polling accuracy tables.

Well as the counting of absentee ballots and the certification of results state by state continues the gap between the two men is getting larger and larger. The 0230 GMT update by AndyJS above and shows Obama now with a 3.43% lead which could get wider.

For Mitt Romney his total is edging downwards by the day and is heading towards the 47% level – a number which became quite significant for him during the campaign.

For PBers who entered the site’s prize competition in conjunction with William Hill the wait continues. The winners will be the ones who get closest to the final margin to within two decimal points when the results from all states are in. Hopefully we’ll know by next week.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Rand Paul,son of Ron,becomes the first to go public on his interest in GOP2016 nomination.I got 50/1 last night twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2012

Last night I got a bet on at 50/1 with PaddyPower that Rand Paul, the son of 2012 GOP contender, Ron Paul, would be the nominee for the 2016 race.

Thanks to HYUFD on the previous thread for tipping us off about Paul’s TV interview in which he spoke about his interest.

This is, of course, four years off but getting long-shots in at prices like this can prove profitable. PaddyPower have now brought the odds in to 33/1 where it might just still offer reasonable value.

A big thing that Rand Paul’s likely to have going for him is his father’s extraordinarily enthusiastic and well organised supporter base that at one stage during the summer threatened to make life very difficult for the Romney camp.

In many states ostensibly won by Romney Paul supporters managed to get themselves elected as convention delegates and could have been in a powerful position. It was only when Ron himself intervened to call his troops off that Romney looked secure.

Rand Paul will be very strong in the states that have party caucuses rather than primaries and he’s likely to have a well-honed fund-raising machine.

Does he stand a chance? I don’t know but as we get closer the betting price is likely to get a lot tighter and it’s nice to be sitting on a 50/1 bet.

The Ladbrokes price is 25/1.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

As the final millions of #WH2012 votes continue to be counted Obama moves to a 3.13% lead.bit.ly/S7MJ5m twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2012

It could be 3 weeks before we know the winning margin

It’s two weeks now since Barack Obama won his second terms – but the counting goes on and it could be three weeks before we have a definitive winning margin down to 2 decimal points on which we can award the prizes.

In many states absentee ballots (postal votes) are valid provided their post-mark is the day of the election.

It’s reckoned there are several million votes still to be counted and as the process continues Obama’s lead on the popular vote seems to grow. My reckoning is that it could get to 3.50%.

Three prizes of free bets from William Hill will be awarded with £500 going to the closest.

Thanks to PBer AndyJS who is doing a great job maintaining the total here and on Wikipedia.

If two or more entrants have the same prediction then the first one to have posted it on the thread will take precedence.

Best of luck those still in with a shout.

UPDATE The latest figures from AndyJS are Obama 50.75% – Romney 47.6%

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Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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Latest popular vote figures from #WH2012 see here. Obama lead now 2.7%. Still several million votes to come twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012

@weslangley The £1000 PB/William Hill WH2012 comp will be settled when we havefinal figs. Ohio doesn’t declare fully until Nov 17

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012

@joshdixontweets A number of states accept postal absentee ballots for several days after election provided they are post-marked Nov 6

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012

The most up to data and, I believe, most accurate data on the popular vote is being collated and maintained here by long-standing PB regular Andy JS.

Thanks Andy – you are doing a great job.

Since the election the move has, bit by bit, being heading further towards Obama and it could reach 3%.

We’ll announce it here when final figures are in and invite entrants to make claims.

There are three prizes of free bets, generously provided by William Hill, for the three most accurate forecasts.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Nate Silver: nyti.ms/Z6kbM7 The Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2012

Which did best – which did worst?

Nate Silver of the New York Times has produced the above polling accuracy table. He’s based it on surveys in the final three weeks rather than just the closing poll.

Nate’s reasoning is that there’s a tendency, which we see in the UK as well, for pollsters to herd round the consensus in their closing polls. You have to read the fine print to find that different weightings or methodologies have been brought in.

It is based on both national and state polls and there’s a minimum qualification of having published five surveys.

Interestingly the firm right at the bottom is the one that created modern political polling back in the mid-1930s – Gallup. For the closing period of the campaign they were putting forward numbers that were very much out of synch with the rest and, no doubt, they’ll be looking afresh at their methodologies.

Gallup’s daily tracker together with Rasmussen had a huge impact on perceptions of how the battle was evolving. Next time they won’t be treated so seriously.

The Rasmussen and Gallup numbers also impacted a lot on the polling averages.

These tables are always good reference points and, no doubt will be referred to a lot in the coming four years.

Well done Nate on a great election and thank you. I’m sure that many PBers are a bit richer this weekend after following your predictions.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB