Archive for the 'WHITE HOUSE RACE' Category


WH2016: New early state polling has Trump looking even stronger in the battle for the GOP nomination

Wednesday, August 26th, 2015


The multi billionaire chalks up biggest leads yet in the 2 states with the first full primaries

New polling overnight shows the extent that Donald Trump is dominating the effort to win the Republican party nomination in the so called early states which are first to decide in the nomination race.

After Iowa with its caucuses which involve those who are ready to turn out on a cold winter’s night to attend a political meeting the first real primaries take place in New Hampshire and South Carolina. New polling from these two is very good for Trump.

The real estate magnate turned TV star has opened a 24% lead in New Hampshire, according to Public Policy Polling, with 35% of those saying they are likely to vote supporting him.

The Public Policy Polling numbers are Trump 35, Kasich 11, Bush 7, Walker 7, Carson 6, Christie 4, Fiorina 10, Cruz 4, Paul 3, Rubio 4, Huckabee 0, Perry 2, Jindal 0, Graham 1, Santorum 1

The critical thing is that no other Republican contender comes anywhere near. The governor of Ohio, John Kasich, is the closest at 11%. It is a similar picture of Trump dominance in South Carolina, the second early primary state. Here a Monmouth University poll puts Trump at 30% which is exactly twice that of support in South Carolina, double that of Ben Carson on 15%.

The full South Carolina numbers are Trump 30, Carson 15, Bush 9, Walker 4, Huckabee 3, Graham 4, Rubio 6, Cruz 5, Fiorina 6, Kasich 3, Christie 2, Paul 3, Perry 0, Jindal 0

As can be seen in both these new surveys Jeb Bush the frontrunner in the betting and brother of George, the last Republican to be in the White House, is languishing a long way way behind. Bush has got to do something fairly soon.

If it gets to February and Trump takes these two states then he could be unstoppable.

Meanwhile in the Democratic race..

Mike Smithson


The big Democratic party WH2016 question remans – “Is Joe Biden going to run”?

Saturday, August 22nd, 2015


New key state polling suggests he could do better than Hillary

The head of steam that’s building up over a Joe Biden WH2016 bid has received an enormous boost with a range of key state polling from Quinnipac University suggesting that in several battles the Vice-President could do better than Hillary against a range of likely GOP nominees.

This follows an awkward month for the odds-on favourite, Hillary, trying to deal with the email affair as well as seeing her personal favourability decline sharple.

The problem for Biden and any other contender is that the Clinton campaign has just about every possible skilled party organiser and big party donor on its books. It would be a massive task for Biden or anybody to get into the game at this stage.

But as long as Clinton looks weak then the speculation over another serious contender will continue. It might be Biden or it might be someone else.

I started laying Hillary on Betfair when she was 1.21. That’s now 1.44.

Mike Smithson


Donald Trump continues to dominate the GOP nomination polls

Monday, August 17th, 2015


What the “experts” deemed a debate disaster hasn’t done him any harm

It’s now a week and a half on from the first Republican nominee debate of the 2016 campaign – an event that delivered for Fox News its biggest audience of all time. Normally at this stage in a White House very few people are concerned with the minutiae of nomination battles and TV debate audiences are measured in hundreds of thousands not tens of millions.

The reason, of course, why things are different this time is the presence in the line-up of the billionaire property developer turned TV super-star, Donald Trump. For him the normal rules don’t apply.

    The latest polling for Fox news just published has Trump 25, Carson 12, Cruz 10, Bush 9, Walker/Huckabee 6, Fiorina 5.

    The big loser here is the betting favourite, Jeb Bush. Two weeks ago the Fox poll had him in second place 11 points behind Trump. Now the brother of the former president is 16 points adrift in fourth place.

In another poll from Iowa, the first state with its famous caucuses to make a decision on presidential contenders, Trump was on 22% with Bush on just 5%.

Just contrast the polling with the betting where Bush remains a very strong favourite. Overnight on Betfair he was a 42% chance compared with 7.4% for Trump.

My reading is that the Bush Betfair price is far too tight and I’m laying him. Meanwhile overnight I’ve started to back Trump. My hope is that the former will weaken and the latter price will harden. As regular PBers will know I look for trading gains and these are not predictions. Bets are all about value.

The main challenge for White House contenders at this stage is securing donor support for whom polling like this can be very influential. Trump doesn’t have that problem – he’s self funding his campaign.

Mike Smithson


Al Gore – the 150/1 outsider for the Democratic Party nomination

Sunday, August 16th, 2015

Could 2016 be Bush v Gore not Bush v Clinton?

You can see how Hillary Clinton’s issue with her private emails turns very messy and denies her the nomination, Joe Biden’s age is becoming a barrier to him getting the nomination, so much so, that’s he reportedly considering standing for only one term to calm those concerns about his age.

The other day it was reported former Vice President and winner of the popular vote in the 2000 Presidential election, Al Gore is considering running, though it has been denied.

I wonder if it is worth backing, purely as a trading bet, Al Gore to be the Democratic Party nominee, some bookies are offering 150/1 but even at 100/1 to 66/1 others are offering. If Clinton & Biden don’t run, and he could appear to be the safe choice, as well as possessing a gravitas that none of the remaining contenders would have.



The lucid Harvard professor who could make Hillary’s White House bid a bit less straightforward

Wednesday, August 12th, 2015

I don’t know how seriously to take this move by the prominent, and highly lucid, Harvard law professor who wants to become president and then stand down after getting effective campaign finance reforms enacted.

His strength as a communicator are shown in his promotional video. The key test is whether his plan to “crowd source” his bid is successful.

If this does take off in any way then the Hillary campaign could be most effected. Her current dominating position has been helped enormously by the absence of an alternative.

Ladbrokes have Lessig as a 200/1 shot to get the nomination. I’ve risked a fiver,

Mike Smithson


Jeb Bush, 6/4 favourite for the GOP nomination, slips to 7% in the first post debate poll

Tuesday, August 11th, 2015

Trump up 1 while Fiorina and Cruz the big gainers

Away from the Labour leadership the most intriguing political betting market currently is on who will be the Republican party nominee for the November 2016 Presidential Election.

Last Thursday we had the first live TV debates and today we’ve got the first nomination voting polling since the event. In spite, or maybe because, of all the controversy Donald Trump edges up a point while the only woman, Carly Fiorina, jumps 6% and Ted Cruz 7%.

The interesting numbers are those for Jeb Bush who is down 3 to just 7%. This doesn’t look good an he needs to perform substantially better at the next event in September to keep his donor base happy.

My view is that Bush at currents level is over-priced at the moment and have been laying (betting against) him on Betfair.

Mike Smithson


Meanwhile in the White House race the reverberations from the Fox News GOP contenders debate comtinue

Sunday, August 9th, 2015


The first GOP debate – has it changed your view?

Friday, August 7th, 2015

Everybody seems to want instant reactions to events like the Fox GOP debates in Cleveland Ohio.

My only “winner”, for want of a better term, was Carly Fiorina – the ex-CEO of Hewlett Packard who sounded fluid and convincing in the first session for those who started with the lowest poll ratings.

Next time she needs to be facing Donald Trump – the dominant figure who has refused to rule out running as a third candidate if his party doesn’t choose him.

Mike Smithson