Archive for the 'WHITE HOUSE RACE' Category

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WH2016 – updated polling and betting

Friday, July 29th, 2016



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Now let’s see if Hillary gets a polling bounce that out does Trump’s last week

Friday, July 29th, 2016

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I didn’t stay up overnight to watch Hillary Clinton’s acceptance speech at the end of the Democratic convention but it seems to have been well received.

The betting markets have moved a notch back towards here but we need to see a full range of post convention polling before we can start drawing conclusions.

If the polling averages from next Monday onwards are just showing this to be level pegging then Trump could be said to be the winner of the convention season.

On one measure, TV audience ratings, the Democrats have been getting about 15% more viewers than the Republicans last week which is a possible indicator. No figures yet for the final day.

I switched my Trump betting position to Clinton at the start of the week on the assumption that she would get a polling bounce.

One contribution last night that’s getting big attention was this from Muslim man whose soldier son was killed while on duty.

There’ll be much more if this in the next 102 days. Trump is a non conventional candidate fighting in a totally non conventional way. The formal campaign, which starts at the end of the conventions, has begun a month earlier than usual. A lot can happen between now and November 8th.

Trump’s ability to attract media coverage can work for him or against.

Mike Smithson




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US election round-up following Obama’s convention speech and Trump’s call to Russia

Thursday, July 28th, 2016



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The moment when a major US party nominated a woman for President for the first time

Wednesday, July 27th, 2016

And Bernie Sanders played his part

Congratulations to Betfair and the other bookies who have been quick to settle long-standing US WH2016 bets as events have unfolded at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia. It’s now official – Clinton versus Trump.

Given the continuing disquiet amongst some of his followers in the hall the 74 year old socialist from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, played his part in the evening’s choreography. Vermont passed when it was invited to record its votes. Then at the end Sanders was able to make a short speech that many in the party are hoping will be a healing moment.

There’s little doubt that it will be a rough road ahead but party officials hope that the prospect of President Trump will act as a huge unifying force and turnout driver.

In the betting Clinton is down to a 67% chance on Betfair which compares to a high of 75.5% on June 23rd.

Just like the Republicans getting behind Trump the same’s likely to happen with Clinton.

Mike Smithson




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If Hillary Clinton does win in November then Michelle Obama’s convention speech will be seen as being crucial

Tuesday, July 26th, 2016

The First Lady rescues the Convention

By all accounts the opening hours of the first day at the Democratic Convention had not been good for the Clinton campaign. The leaked emails and the irreconcilable Bernie supporters have made what should have been a showcase into something of a nightmare. There were persistent chants of “lock her up” whenever Clinton’s name was mentioned.

Then Michelle Obama took the stage and made a powerful heartfelt case for the the person who was her husband’s main opponent in 2008 and who to whom he is now giving his full backing.

For one of the unique features of this election is the role being played by the White House. It is very rare for an incumbent to take as high profile a role as Obama is doing and this comes at a time when his leader ratings are high.

The Bernie Sanders speech an hour later was another key development. His aim is to try to harness some of the enthusiasm and energy that his supporters have generated in the primaries and focus on securing not just success in November but backing for a wide range of policies that he has been espousing. There’s no doubt that he’s having a big influence on the party platform.

The betting moved a notch to Clinton during the evening.

Mike Smithson




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Trump gets marked bounce in first round of post-convention polling and now has clear national lead

Monday, July 25th, 2016

This is going to be a tough one for Clinton/Kaine

Any idea that Hillary Clinton’s election in November is a forgone conclusion have been shaken in the first batch of post-Republican Convention polls. As the table show he’s got a clear leads.

This comes as the Democratic national convention gets underway later today in Philadelphia with defeated nomination contender, Bernie Sanders having a prime slot.

Maybe the Trump polling will act as a jolt to the party and encourage greater unity round the Clinton campaign. A key Clinton objective is to try to ensure that those, particularly young voters, who had been giving the 74 year old socialist from Vermont their enthusiastic backing switch to her. There are hopes that her choice of Tim Kaine as VP nominee will help.

Looking at the numbers above it is hard to conclude that this is other than a very tight campaign and it is far from certain that Trump will be defeated.

One issue that is growing in importance are suggestions that Russia’s Vladimir Putin is backing Trump.There’s a good analysis here which, no doubt, the Clinton campaign will seek to exploit to the full.

The election will, of course, not be decided by national vote shares but by first past the post contests in the various states. As soon as we get some new surveys from the key swing conttests I’ll start produce tables like the national one above.

I’m now betting on Trump because I think he’s currently under-priced.

Mike Smithson




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It’s being reported that Virginia Senator, Tim Kaine. will be named latest today as Clinton’s running mate

Friday, July 22nd, 2016

A message is due to go out from the Clinton campaign later today with her choice of VP nominee. All the reports suggest that she’s chosen Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia.

There had been much speculation that she might have gone for Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, who has become one of Donald Trump’s most vocal and vehement critics. The problem there was that the Democratic party is desperate to win back control of the senate and her being elected as VP would have created a vacancy. Under normal procedures this would have been filled by the choice of the state Governor who is currently a Republican.

Senator Kaine does not have that problem because the Governorship of Virginia is currently in Democratic party hands.

Kaine is 58 and if he is chosen and Clinton wins then he must be a good bet to be her successor in the White House. Yesterday Bill Clinton indicated that Kaine had his backing.

Mike Smithson




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Extraordinary scenes at the GOP convention as Ted Cruz doesn’t back Trump and says “Vote with your conscience”

Thursday, July 21st, 2016

And the Donald is accused of cosying up to Putin

Normally the third day of US presidential conventions is for speaker after speaker to get behind the nominee and make rabble rousing speeches.

Overnight in Cleveland, Ohio, the contender who had run Trump closest in the primaries, Senator Ted Cruz, had a different approach and refused to back the man who 24 hours beforehand had officially become the nominee. Cruz was also speaking in prime time, that part of the night’s proceedings that were getting the most TV time.

Quite why the Trump team had allowed this to happen is not clear but it looks like a mistake.

This came after a huge controversy emerged over Trump’s apparent support for Russia’s Putin and questions about the future of NATO if he got elected in November.

In the betting Hillary had slipped to a 68% chance on Betfair at the start of the week. She’s now at 71%.

Mike Smithson