Archive for the 'David Cameron' Category

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ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement

Wednesday, March 25th, 2015

A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on Cameron’s 3rd term announcement

As you’d expect Tom Clarke in the Guardian reports a partisan split in the responses. His report notes that with CON supporters, 56% to 27% believe his move was right. Among LAB supporters, the view was by 50% to 29% – that he got it wrong.

Where Cameron came in for more criticism was over his speculation about who his successor might be.

In the betting, meanwhile, the Tories remain strong favourites to win most seats.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The polling finds David Cameron would get the blame were the debates not to take place

Sunday, March 8th, 2015

But do the public understand Cameron’s strategy and tactics over the debates?

The polling by YouGov on the debates doesn’t make for good reading for David Cameron, such as 50% think David Cameron is scared to debate other party leaders. whilst 38% mostly blame Cameron for the stalemate over the debates, whilst 13% mostly blame the broadcasters, and below, David Cameron doesn’t come off as sincere in regards to the debates.

 

However, in the polling for the Times’ Red Box website, YouGov found the following “Who do you think has the most to gain in TV debates?”

RedBoxDebates

As we can see, the public can’t see much advantage for Dave taking part, but a lot of advantages for both Nigel Farage and Ed Miliband, 9% of the voters think Cameron has the most to gain. As Stephan Shakespeare of YouGov observes

So if the TV debates fail to happen, the public will at least be left with the impression of the Prime Minister as an astute tactician.

So perhaps he and the Tories might not take a hit in the voting intention were the debates not to happen, it depends on how much salience this topic has, although this story has a bit more to run, as it is being reported that No ‘empty chair’ humiliation for David Cameron as BBC considers giving him his own general election programme’

TSE



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Does this explain the Tory optimism about May

Friday, March 6th, 2015

“Labour voters are also generally lukewarm about their leader in a way that Conservatives are not about theirs.” – Opinium

The above chart shows how well Dave and badly Ed do among their own supporters, as other pollsters generally find as well. I’m of the view, that Ed’s poor ratings are priced into the voting intention, and that the voting intention is largely correct.

We’re going to find out in nine weeks time if it is priced in or not. These types of findings might well explain why particularly on betfair, the prices are much more bullish on the Tories doing better than the current polling suggests.

Opinium have also been tracking this “For a while now we’ve been asking voters to predict the 2015 election with the options being majorities for either big party or a hung parliament with either Labour or the Conservatives as the largest party. We defined a “win” as a party winning a majority or being the largest party in a hung parliament.”

This probably also probably explains the Tory optimism and expectation about May and feeds through to betfair.

Back in 2013, when Labour was routinely recording 10-point leads, 54% of voters expected Labour to ‘win’ vs. just 24% for the Conservatives. Now that both parties are at parity, Labour’s figure has dropped to 33% while the Conservatives’ has risen to 49%.

Among Labour voters themselves, the proportion predicting a win was 82% in 2013 but just 67% do so now. Conservative voters have gone from 60% expecting a win to 82% now.

To an extent this is just voters reading the polls and coverage of them which show that, even if momentum may not exactly be with the Tories, Labour have bled support across the country to the SNP, UKIP and more recently the Greens.

This also feeds into who they expect to be prime minister after the election. Overall Cameron leads Miliband by 46% to 23% but while 75% of Conservatives expect their leader to stay at No. 10, just 47% of Labour voters expect Ed Miliband to replace him.

The full data is available here

TSE



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Is this going to backfire for Dave as the one and only debate could be in three weeks time?

Thursday, March 5th, 2015

Dave welcoming the debates 5 years ago

It is being reported

Downing Street has issued a “final offer” to broadcasters over the election television debates, declaring in a pointed email that David Cameron will take part in just one debate featuring seven party leaders before the formal campaign begins next month…..

…..The intervention by the prime minister’s director of communications, Craig Oliver, prompted an angry backlash. Nick Clegg accused Cameron of trying to hold the debates to ransom by dictating terms. Douglas Alexander, the chair of Labour’s general election campaign, accused Downing Street of an “outrageous” attempt to bully the broadcasters into dropping their proposal for a head-to-head debate between Cameron and Miliband.

The risks for David Cameron are that he ends up looking like a bully and gets the blame if there are no debates. There is polling that showed 67% of the public would view Cameron as a coward if he didn’t take part in the debates. Whilst a recent poll showed that 70% of the public wanted the debates to take place during the election campaign.

Dave is on the wrong side of public opinion, and like immigration yesterday, his past comments, in the above video shows, on the debates, have the potential to come back and damage him, two months from an election, that’s not a good place for any politician, especially the sitting Prime Minister to be in.

Some might cite Tony Blair’s agreeing then rejecting debates, but I would argue that was different, as we’ve now had debates in 2010, and that effects the whole situation in 2015 as they are considered part of the political landscape now.

TSE



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Operation Save Dave is unlikely to succeed

Sunday, March 1st, 2015

The Sunday Times reports (££)

George Osborne held a dinner with Conservative whips on Monday night to discuss tactics for the days after the vote on May 7.

Two senior MPs revealed that Tory high command is preparing to argue that Cameron has won a “moral victory” if he secures more votes than Ed Miliband — even if he has fewer seats.

In the event of a fragile Labour-led coalition taking power, they would argue that there could be a second general election within months and it would be better to stick with Cameron than hold a bloody leadership contest.

Ministers close to Downing Street say even if Cameron wins the most seats, he is drawing up plans to run a minority government rather than seek another coalition.

Senior figures believe he could keep his MPs onside because going it alone would free up 23 ministerial posts held by Liberal Democrats.

One minister close to Cameron said: “If there is an opportunity to govern without going into coalition, we would seize it.”

The fact such contingencies are being planned by Cameron’s closest supporters is not surprising given the current polling, however moral victories aren’t worth much. The position of many in and out of the party is that Dave’s leadership ends the moment he ceases to be Prime Minister, as the Conservative Party has a history of ruthlessness when dealing with its leaders, as Margaret Thatcher and IDS would attest.

The Sunday Times says at least one former cabinet minister will call for Cameron to quit when the polls close on the 7th of May if Dave fails to finish ahead of Labour.

But the most interesting part of the article is that Cameron is drawing up plans to govern as a minority rather than seek another coalition, you can currently get 9/2 on such an occurrence, which in light of reports yesterday that Nick Clegg is ready to rule out a new coalition with the Conservatives over its plan to hold a European Union referendum, might be a very plausible scenario.

The article also says Michael Gove has been telling the Conservative parliamentary party, that not one Conservative MP will lose their seat, one wonders if Mr Gove will be willing to bet on that, as I’m sure several PBers would be willing to offer him odds on that.

TSE



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Will this win back the Con to UKIP switchers Dave needs to remain in Downing Street?

Sunday, February 8th, 2015

If the Tories are to remain in power after May 7th, they need to win back the near in one in five voters they’ve lost to UKIP since 2010.

The Sunday Times are reporting (££)

If the Tories keep the keys to Downing Street, one scenario being considered would see negotiations with EU governments continue this summer to get a new deal for Britain in Brussels.

The prime minister would outline his final demands at the Conservative party conference in October and announce a referendum date, either in the spring or autumn next year, setting the clock ticking on final talks with the other 27 EU countries.

One minister told The Sunday Times that Cameron would “like to go early” and a second said a 2016 referendum is “the preferred route”.

Whilst cynics would say this is an attempt to win back those voters who have switched to UKIP, the Tory logic is thus, a referendum held in 2017 will be complicated by the fact France and Germany are holding general elections in 2017, which may not make amenable in to giving the UK concessions. By holding in 2016 it will also reduce the economic uncertainty.

Given Cameron’s past contretemps over the Lisbon referendum, holding the referendum in 2016 might not help in winning back those switchers, especially as Nigel Farage has said in the past a “July 2015 referendum is my price for propping up Tories”

At the time of writing, you could get odds of 6/4 that there would be a referendum by 2019.

TSE



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Remember Cameron’s early vote-Blue-go-green mantra?

Saturday, January 31st, 2015

Now the Tory hope is vote Green get blue

The pictures still remain a defining moment of his leadership: surrounded by a pack of huskies and against an Arctic backdrop, David Cameron pushing his vote-Blue-go-green message. It seems a long time ago and it is, almost nine years as the clock ticks and an era politically – before the Credit Crunch changed the entire political landscape.

That early focus on the environment is perhaps one reason why Cameron remains distrusted by the Thatcherite right. After years of being fed the messages they wanted to hear on Europe, immigration, crime and the like (and suffering electoral defeat at the same time), not only did the strategy of focussing on the environment unnerve them as indicating that he wasn’t One of Us but was also rapidly overtaken by events once the recession hit. Green issues are for times when people have enough money to feel morally content about paying a bit more for organic food or petrol.

Whether it ultimately had the desired effect at the election is questionable. The softer, gentler hue cast a contrast with the Hague / IDS / Howard era but there’s a small cross-section between those who are willing to vote Conservative and those who place environmental concerns high on their priorities. For all that the detoxification strategy was edging up the Tory vote under Blair, it was one tax-cutting speech by Osborne and one dither by Brown that scuppered Labour’s chances in 2007. By 2010, the agenda had long moved on.

Five years on and looking at the rising Green Party scores, one could be forgiven for thinking that the environment was actually rising in the public’s concern. It’s not: in the Mori issues index, Pollution and the Environment scores in the mid- to high-single figures, just as it has done for years. What is driving the rise in the Green vote is not its core issue, the environment, but its extreme left-wing economic denialism, which makes it attractive to those of an oppositional mind-set, unhappy with the Lib Dems in government or Labour preparing for government.

The problem, of course, is that under FPTP, switching from Labour or the Lib Dems to the Greens is most likely to help the Tories. Bar charts can and no doubt will be deployed demonstrating how the Greens ‘can’t win here’ but such arguments have a limited appeal to voters who’ve (wrongly) come to the conclusion that the rest are all alike.

It’s not difficult to see why Cameron wants the Greens on stage in the debates. Unlike in a one-to-one interview, Natalie Bennett could sloganeer far more easily without being challenged on particular policies in anything like the depth that Andrew Neill went into last weekend. With UKIP’s bubble deflating a little, it’s the Greens who are timing their rise just right and giving themselves the chance to be this election’s breakthrough party. Yet if they are, it’s unlikely to be Bennett or Lucas smiling if the country votes Green but goes Blue.

David Herdson



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Methinks that Dave has made a mistake on the TV debates

Thursday, January 8th, 2015