Archive for the 'David Cameron' Category

« Previous Entries
Next Page »
h1

PaddyPower offering betting market on whether Cameron will face a leadership challenge

Monday, May 20th, 2013

What does this say about Dave’s current position

There’s definitely “something in the air” about the Conservatives at the moment and I’m one of many, I guess, who’ve had a punt on him facing a leadership challenge before GE2015.

    My sense is that if it did get to this stage then he’d lose – but I’ve covered this eventiality with a smaller bet at the 5/1 that he’ll face a challenge and survive.

We are now just over 23 months from the GE2015 and, no doubt, many of those Tories who won seats in 2010 are starting to get a bit anxious, especially when they work out the implication in their individual seats of the growing Ukip shares.

If we look at the form book the Tories do bring down leaders they fear will be an electoral liability.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in General Election, Betting, David Cameron | No Comments »

h1

My 7-1 and 10-1 bets that Cameron will be the first leader to go are starting to look promising

Monday, May 20th, 2013

Alas good prices don’t last long. Since I got on yesterday the odds on this bet have now tightened to 6/1. Last October I placed a 7/1 bet with William Hill that Cameron would be the first of the three leaders to go. That, unlike the Stan James bet, is not restricted to it happening pre-general election.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news



.



Posted in Betting, David Cameron | No Comments »

h1

The harsh fact for the Tories is that parties that appear divided get punished by the voters

Monday, May 13th, 2013

The Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul summed this up well in an excellent blog yesterday:-

“That’s the news list gone for most of the week, as the vote on the symbolic Eurosceptic amendment in the Commons will wipe out most else, not least because of the unfamiliarity of a whipped abstention by government ministers.

What are the Tories thinking of….? Too many of them believe in withdrawing from the EU, I conclude, and care passionately about it. That’s not ignoble. I have argued before that the case for and against EU membership is finely balanced. But their behaviour is astonishingly counterproductive.”

The best way for the referendum-backers to get what they desire is to do everything possible to ensure that Cameron leads his party to an overall majority at GE2015.

What is happening this week will have the opposite effect.

Ed Miliband’s luck continues.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in David Cameron, EU matters | No Comments »

h1

Nadine could do Cameron a lot of damage if she switched to Ukip

Monday, May 6th, 2013

It’s time to “Free the Mid-Bedfordshire One”

In 2008 the county council in Bedfordshire was abolished so it wasn’t one of the traditional shire counties where there was voting last Thursday.

If there had been elections I’ve little doubt that it would have followed the pattern of elsewhere in eastern England with Ukip making big inroads – particularly in the area covered by the Mid-Bedfordshire parliamentary constituency which, of course, is represented at Westminster by Nadine Dorries.

Exactly six months ago today Nadine was suspended from the parliamentary Conservative party for her much publicised trip to Australia to take part in the TV programme – “I’m a celebrity get me out of here.”

That suspension is still in force and speculation has been revived about her switching to Ukip. Farage was quoted yesterday welcoming such a move which, if it happened now, would add to the ongoing positive narrative about the party.

Over the weekend senior party figures like Lord Ashcroft, David Davis and the editor of ConHome , Paul Goodman, have joined the clamour for Nadine’s punishment to be lifted.

    Davis bitingly contrasted Nadine’s treatment with old-Etonian, Jesse Norman, who rebelled and then got promoted. Nadine, brought up on a Merseyside council estate, is still being hung out to dry.

If Nadine did join the purples she could do immense damage to the Tories. She’s a fierce critic of Cameron and being UKIP’s one MP would provide a platform for ongoing attacks on the PM.

Her constituency is just five minutes from where I live and I know it well. My reading is that she’d have a good chance of holding it for UKIP against an official Conservative candidate at the general election.

This has betting implications. There was an active market on whether she’d switch before the election and, of course, it impacts on how many, if any, MPs Ukip would have.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in General Election, Betting, David Cameron, Tories, UKIP | No Comments »

h1

Boris Johnson for PM polling? He was overstated by all 6 pollsters in final surveys ahead of May 2012 mayoral race

Thursday, April 4th, 2013

Remember how Ken ran him so close?

Just before the Easter weekend we reported on a new YouGov poll that had a Boris-led Tory party level pegging with an EdM LAB one when the named leader voting intention question was put.

This caused something of a stir and was in line with similar polling at the time of the Olympics. There’s little doubt that substituting the Boris name for Dave does give a boost to Tory ratings.

What we should also ask is how serious such findings are and a wider one relating to polling about Boris when tested against real results.

    For six pollsters carried out voting surveys ahead of the May 2012 mayoral election and the final survey of every single one of them over-stated Boris’s eventual winning margin.

In the election Boris beat Ken by 3.06% when second preferences were allocated. This compared with (see UKPR here) Opinium +4%, YouGov +6%, TNS-BMRB +6%, ComRes +8%, Survation +10% and Populus +12%.

On the night, as no doubt many will recall, the big surprise was that Ken, with all the issues surrounding his campaign, had run Boris so close.

It appeared that the race had closed in the final days.

The lesson I take from this is to be more wary of named leader polling when it relates to Johnson.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in Boris, David Cameron, Tories | No Comments »

h1

This is starting to look a bit like November 1990 when Mrs. Thatcher was brought down

Wednesday, March 13th, 2013

Suddenly the race to replace Dave as CON leader goes public as Gove lashes out at Theresa May

Public wrangling like this can only damage the party

One of the givens of modern politics is that parties that appear to be split get punished by the electorate.

So what are we to make of latest missive by leadership hopeful, Michael Gove against the Home Secretary Theresa May for her speech at the weekend? Normally these things are all done in private or by using surrogates to speak on your behalf.

What’s striking about these overnight developments is that it is Gove himself who is going public. You can only conclude that he sees Theresa May as a growing obstacle in the way of his own leadership ambitions.

The problem for the party and Cameron is that the media loves all of this magnifying each event thus creating an overall impression of splits and divisions.

Watch this space. We might just be seeing another November 1990.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in Betting, David Cameron, Tories | 408 Comments »

h1

Theresa May and Tim Farron first went head to head at GE1992

Tuesday, March 12th, 2013

A foretaste of a general election to come?

Thanks to PB poster Tim at the weekend for spotting this one – the battle for the rock solid LAB seat of Durham NW at the 1992 general election.

    Who would have thought then that just over two decades later the two losing candidates, Theresa May and Tim Farron would be right at the top of the betting to be next leaders of their parties?

As has been reported there’s been a big rush to get on Theresa May since the Tory third place at Eastleigh with William Hill now making her 4/1 with Boris at 5/1. PaddyPower have them joint 4/1 favourites while other bookies still give the edge to the Mayor of London.

For Nick Clegg’s successor Tim Farron is solid 2/1 or 5/2 favourite across the board.

What clearly we don’t know in either coalition partner is when a contest is likely to happen. The impression from the LD gathering in Brighton over the weekend was that Clegg was more secure while the rumblings continue amongst Tories about Cameron.

I’ve had a small flutter on the 16/1 option in this new PaddyPower market.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in Betting, Coalition, David Cameron | 468 Comments »

h1

ConHome surveys suggests that most CON activists now believe that the next general election is lost

Saturday, March 9th, 2013

The Eastleigh third place has just added to the gloom

The problem is that all this could be self-fulfilling

Dominating the front page of the Times this morning is a report of a ConHome survey of Tory supporters suggesting that a large majority believe that the next election is now lost.

Some of the key points are highlighted above and there’s little doubt that the party’s failure even to make second place in last week’s Eastleigh by-election has added to the gloom.

This is being fueled by reports of splits and hints of leadership challenges. Yesterday the money was going on Theresa May as Cameron’s successor.

It’s going to be a mega-task for the leadership to turn this round and there’s now less than 26 months to go.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




Posted in General Election, David Cameron, Tories | 276 Comments »

« Previous Entries
Next Page »