Archive for the 'Competitions' Category

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The “Wisdom of Crowds/PBers”: What you/they think will happen in 2014

Monday, February 3rd, 2014

PB 2014 competition predictions now out

(Firstly, apologies for the delay in getting these predictions released – I’ve been absolutely flat out at work with year-end, so thanks for your patience.)

80 pundits took part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looking at everything from UK leaders at Christmas, the Scottish independence referendum and the Euro-elections, to key international elections, and predictions for the opinion polls from ICM.

Full details of the player-by-player predictions are available here.

 
UK leaders:

  • Unanimous predictions for Cameron and Clegg as PM and DPM at Xmas 2014
  • Ed Balls got an 84% prediction for Shadow Chancellor at Xmas – Alastair Darling was next with 6%

 
Scotland referendum:

  • Just 20% of players think that Scotland will vote Yes to independence
  • The average predicted Yes percentage was 41.7

 
Euro-Elections

  • Labour is narrowly predicted as the winner, with an average vote % of 28.0
  • UKIP are just behind, with an average of 27.2
  • The Conservatives’ average prediction is 22.7% with 9.4% for the Lib Dems
  • 49 players had Labour winning outright or tying for first, 30 had UKIP, 9 Con
    In the opinion poll predictions, the average highs and lows for the four main parties were (Lab/Con/LD/UKIP) 41/37/15/19 and 33/29/9/9, with the average for the largest Labour lead being 10 points, and the average smallest Labour lead being a one point deficit.

 
International elections:

  • Brazil (October) – Incumbent president Dilma Rousseff is the overwhelming predicted winner with 89%, with no other prediction getting into double figures.
  • India (April/May) – a slightly more mixed picture here, with the BJP’s Narendra Modi securing 61% of predictions, way ahead of Rahul Gandhi, who will lead the election campaign for the Congress Party, on 21%.
  • US Senate (November) – the Democrats have a comfortable lead in predictions, with 63% of players predicting them to hold onto the upper house in this autumn’s elections.

 
Many thanks and good luck to everyone who took part, and can I wish all punters, posters, and lurkers on PB all the very best for the rest of 2014 – if anyone would like to take part in the Election Game, the site is available here and the next game will be for the Wythenshawe by-election.

 

Double Carpet (@electiongame)



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The PB 2014 Prediction Competition

Wednesday, January 8th, 2014

It’s time to make your predictions for 2014…

It’s going to be a busy year ahead – the Euros, Scotland, and the world’s four biggest democracies all voting. Who’ll win the UK Euro-Elections, and will Scotland be on the road to independence by the end of the year? Will the coalition still be in place at Christmas? It’s time to dust off your crystal ball and make your competition predictions for 2014.

    As before the competition is being hosted by the Election Game. If you would like to take part, the Leaders & Finance game is available here. Entries close 5pm this Sunday. The Game can also be followed on Twitter (@electiongame).

Please do not make predictions on this thread, but click through to the link below.

PB entries close 7pm next Monday – enter the competition here

 

Part 1 – on Christmas Day 2014 who will be…?

(50 points for each correct answer unless shown otherwise)

1 – UK Prime Minister (100 points)

2 – Deputy Prime Minister

3 – Shadow Chancellor

 

Part 2 – Scotland and the Euros

(50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)

4 – Percentage YES vote in Scottish Independence referendum

5 – Conservatives GB vote % in Euro-elections

6 – Labour GB vote % in Euro-elections

7 – Lib Dem GB vote % in Euro-elections

8 – UKIP GB vote % in Euro-elections

 

Part 3 – International elections 2014

(50 points for each correct answer)

9 – Brazil: who will win the election for President?

10 – India: who will become Prime Minister following the election?

11 – US: which party will control the Senate following the midterm elections?

 

Part 4 – the Opinion Polls – what will the Guardian ICM series report as…?

(50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)

12 – Labour’s highest percentage during the year
13 – Labour’s lowest percentage during the year

14 – The Conservatives’ highest percentage during the year
15 – The Conservatives’ lowest percentage during the year

16 – The Lib Dems’ highest percentage during the year
17 – The Lib Dems’ lowest percentage during the year

18 – UKIP’s highest percentage during the year
19 – UKIP’s lowest percentage during the year

20 – Labour’s biggest lead over the Conservatives
21 – Labour’s smallest lead over the Conservatives/the Conservatives’ biggest lead over Labour

(In the unlikely event that the Guardian series is discontinued, other ICM polls will be used, or failing that a selection of polls at the discretion of Mike Smithson.)

 

Double Carpet (@electiongame)



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The PB 2013 Prediction Competition Results

Sunday, January 5th, 2014

How PBers got 2013 right and wrong

Compared to the busy 2012, 2013 was a fairly quiet year, and not a great one for betting, as Our Genial Host has pointed out. There were just three UK by-elections, but of more significance was UKIP’s strong showing in the May locals. Abroad, Israel, Italy, Iran, Australia, and Germany were probably the most noteworthy elections. 2014 however looks set to be much livelier, with the Euros in May and the Scottish independence referendum in September, while the world’s four biggest democracies (India, the US, Indonesia, and Brazil) all go to the polls.

So, how did you fare in the 2013 results? Congratulations to the 2012 runner-up No Offence Alan who finished 29 points ahead of MWH with James Lowe in third place in the competition – the full table with all players is available here, as well as an Excel spreadsheet showing the detailed breakdown of results.

The first section looked at key posts as at Christmas 2013, and the first two questions both had a 98% success rate, for Cameron as PM, and Clegg as Deputy PM. Balls as Shadow Chancellor scored 86% of correct answers while only 80% correctly predicted Maria Miller to remain at Culture.

The second part covered international elections, which proved to be a very mixed bag. 93% got Merkel in Germany, only 44% correctly picked Abbott in Australia (despite Labor’s internal troubles) – and nobody at all went for Enrico Letta to be Italy’s next PM, following the deadlocked election in February.

    Seat predictions for the May local elections were next, covering the county council elections. Often a tricky section, only the Lib Dem result was close to the average prediction, with a loss of 124 seats against the predicted average of 126. The Conservative and Labour seat movements in the locals of -335 and +291 were further away, with average predictions of -266 and +370. UKIP meanwhile proved much harder to predict, and their gains were massively underestimated, with actual gains of 139 seats against an average prediction of 32.

As ever, the final section looked at the year’s opinion polls from the Guardian’s ICM series. Predictions covered the highs and lows for the four parties, plus the large and small Labour leads. Labour held a lead in every monthly poll apart from a dead heat in July, with their highest lead being 12 in February. In the battle for third place, the Lib Dems were ahead in every month except May, when UKIP were 7 points ahead, and June which was tied.

Party ranges in the year were Lab 41-34, Con 36-28, LD 15-11 and UKIP 18-6. Players collected 50 points if they were spot on, losing 10 points for each percentage point out, down to zero. With an average of 35.6 points collected, best predicted was the Lib Dem high of 15%, while by contrast the UKIP high of 18% was the worst predicted with an average of just 15.0 points.

Many thanks to everyone who took part, and the 2014 competition should be out soon.

    Finally, if you would like to take part, the 2014 season is now underway at The Election Game – the Leaders & Finance game is available here. The games are free to enter, entries for Leaders/Finance close 5pm GMT Sunday 12th Jan, and the Election Game can also be followed here on Twitter (@electiongame).

I’d like to wish all of PB’s punters, posters, and lurkers all the very best for 2014, and thanks to Mike, TSE, and the rest of the PB team for all their hard work on the site.

Double Carpet



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Your chance to win the ideal reference book for political anoraks

Thursday, May 23rd, 2013

This will give you hours of psephological fun!

Biteback has generously agreed to give copy of the latest volume by Professors Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, called “British Electoral Facts 1832-2012″ as a PB competition prize.

The book is an amazing treasure trove and my copy sits almost permanently on my desk.

All you have to do is guess the CON and Ukip shares in the June Guardian ICM poll.

The closest forecast will win.

As with all PB competitions my rulings are final.

Use the thread below to make your entry.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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The PB Eastleigh Competition: Test your forecasting skills by predicting the outcome

Wednesday, February 27th, 2013

Predict the winning party & majority in votes

This surely has been the biggest and most important by-election for 30 years and it certainly has been the one that has been most polled.

We’ve had five published surveys in all and even with them you’d be hard-pressed to choose a winner.

So what do you think? Just state on the thread which party’s candidate you think will win tomorrow’s and give your estimation, in terms of votes, of the majority.

So a typical entry would be CON 672 votes.

The prize will be the honour of getting this right.

Where two or more entrants make the same prediction the first on the thread will take precedence.

Best of luck.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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So what did PBers think will happen in 2013?

Monday, February 4th, 2013

PB 2013 competition predictions now out (and apols for delay!)

(Firstly, apologies to all for the delay in getting these predictions released – I’ve been absolutely flat out at work with year-end and pretty exhausted, so thanks for your patience!)

The pundits taking part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looked at everything from UK leaders at Christmas and the local elections, to key international elections, and predictions for the opinion polls from ICM, with the questions now featuring UKIP for the first time.

Full details of the player-by-player predictions are available here.

UK findings:

  • Almost 100% predictions for Cameron and Clegg as PM and DPM at Xmas 2013 (but what numbers will we get in 2014?)
  • Ed Balls got an 86% prediction for Shadow Chancellor at Xmas – David Miliband was next with 6%
  • Maria Miller is a very strong favourite to retain her post as Culture Secretary, with 80% of responses – way ahead of Jeremy Hunt with just 5%, and a couple of responses each for Greening and Mitchell.

 
In the opinion poll predictions, the average highs and lows for the four main parties were (Lab/Con/LD/UKIP) 44/36/16/13 and 37/29/10/6, with the average for the largest Labour lead being 13 points, and the average smallest Labour lead being 6 points.

Meanwhile in the May local elections, the Conservatives are predicted to lose an average of 266 seats, Labour to gain 370, the Lib Dems to lose 126, while UKIP are forecast to gain 32.

International elections:

  • Germany (likely to be 22 Sep) – Merkel is the overwhelming predicted winner with 93%, way ahead of Peer Steinbrück. Barring a major upset, Merkel should secure a third term, the only real question is what the makeup of the coalition will be.
  • Italy (24-25 Feb) – much more mixed. Centre-left leader Bersani scores 55%, but Monti (21%) and Berlusconi (16%) also featured. The centre-left’s lead has been eaten into during the campaign, and it’s already looking as though even if Bersani wins the Chamber of Deputies, he may need Monti’s support to get a majority in the Senate.
  • Australia (now called for 14 Sep) – this almost split down the middle, with Labor PM Julia Gillard taking 54% of predictions, ahead of the Coalition’s Tony Abbott on 44%. It currently looks as though it will be a comfortable if not overwhelming win for Abbott in the election, but both leaders are struggling with poor approval ratings.

Many thanks and good luck to everyone who took part, and can I wish all punters, posters, and lurkers on PB all the very best for the rest of 2013.

 

Double Carpet (@electiongame)



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Could YOU be the Political Forecaster of 2013?

Thursday, January 10th, 2013

Test your skill in this year’s PB Prediction Competition

“Never underestimate the determination of a quiet man” said Iain Duncan Smith shortly before his defenestration as Conservative leader. But after 2012, what will the quieter year of 2013 hold? How will UKIP perform in the opinion polls? Can the coalition hold together? Will Berlusconi return as Italian PM once more? It’s time to dust off your crystal ball and make your competition predictions for the year ahead.

As before the competition is being hosted by the Election Game. If you would like to take part in the games, the Leaders & Finance game is here and the Israel game is here. Entries for Leaders & Finance close 5pm on Sunday, and the Israel game closes 5pm Sunday 20th Jan. The Game can also be followed here on Twitter (@electiongame).

Please do not make your predictions on this thread, but click through to the link below.

PB Competition entries close 7pm on Monday 14th Jan – enter here

(If for any reason the site is down, it will auto-reboot every 10 minutes)

 

Part 1 – on Christmas Day 2013 who will be…?

(50 points for each correct answer unless shown otherwise)

1 – UK Prime Minister (100 points)

2 – Deputy Prime Minister

3 – Shadow Chancellor

4 – Culture Secretary

 

Part 2 – International elections 2013

(50 points for each correct answer unless shown otherwise)

5 – Australia: who will become Prime Minister following the election?

6 – Germany: who will become Chancellor following the election? (75 points)

7 – Italy: who will become Prime Minister following the election?

 

Part 3 – Seat gains/losses in the May council elections in England

A schedule of the elections is available here, and the results will be settled on the BBC figures.

(100 points for each correct answer reducing by one point for each seat out.)

8 – Net Conservative seats gained/lost

9 – Net Labour seats gained/lost

10 – Net Lib Dem seats gained/lost

11 – Net UKIP seats gained/lost

 

Part 4 – the Opinion Polls – what will the Guardian ICM series report as…?

(50 points for accurate answers reducing by ten points for each 1% out until zero points are reached)

12 – Labour’s highest percentage during the year
13 – Labour’s lowest percentage during the year

14 – The Conservatives’ highest percentage during the year
15 – The Conservatives’ lowest percentage during the year

16 – The Lib Dems’ highest percentage during the year
17 – The Lib Dems’ lowest percentage during the year

18 – UKIP’s highest percentage during the year
19 – UKIP’s lowest percentage during the year

20 – Labour’s biggest lead over the Conservatives
21 – Labour’s smallest lead over the Conservatives/the Conservatives’ biggest lead over Labour

(In the unlikely event that the Guardian series is discontinued, other ICM polls will be used, or failing that a selection of polls at the discretion of Mike Smithson.)

 

Double Carpet (@electiongame)



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Two months after the election the #WH2012 votes are finally counted and we can announce the PB-William Hill winners

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013

Congratulations to Cityunslicker who takes the top slot

When the William Hill/Politicalbetting White House race prediction competition was announced in September nobody could have envisaged that we would have to wait for two months after the election before getting a final outcome.

Entrants were asked simply to predict, down to two decimal points, who the winning candidate would be and the size of the winning margin.

On the night it looked as though an Obama popular vote lead of about 2% would do it. Since then those who predicted slightly more than that have watched as their numbers started to move into the frame only to move out of contention as the vote gap grew large and larger.

Now with New York state finally in we can settle the competition. The overall Obama vote margin was 3.849% and the nearest entry to that was Cityunslicker with a prediction of 3.85%. He takes the first prize of £500 worth of free bets.

Awarding the second and third place prizes has provded a bit more tricky with three entrants on 3.88% – Peter_from_Putney, David_Kendrick and Andrew. Because there’s a three-way tie for the two remaining prizes the timing of the entries has been the decider with Peter from Putney allocated second prize of £350 worth of free bets and David Kendrick the third prize of £150 worth of bets.

Can the winners please drop me an email so we can sort out details of getting the prizes to them?

    Finally a big word of thanks to Graham Sharpe of William Hill for making this competition possible.

Can I also thank AndyJs for the brilliant job he has done monitoring the vote share and the hundreds of entries.

The big question now is where the winners should invest their prize. I quite like the William Hill Italian election 5/1 that Berlesconi will become Italian PM during 2013.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news