Archive for the 'Competitions' Category

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If you’re expecting final WH2016 vote totals quickly don’t hold your breath. In 2012 we had to wait till January

Tuesday, November 15th, 2016

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After election night in 2012 Obama was 2% ahead in the popular vote. By January 2013 it reached 3.85%

At the 2012 White House Race we had a very special reason on PB to pay close attention to the precise national popular vote numbers in the period after the election.

William Hill had offered £1,000 in free bets and the competition was to predict the winning national vote margin to two decimal points.

My naive assumption in devising it like this was that we’d have the final numbers within a couple of days and the prizes could be handed over.

Not so. The process of gathering in the data to produce a definitive competition verdict took weeks and we had the wonderful spectacle of entrants thinking they’d overshot, getting excited as the total moved up to their number and then disappointed as it went past.

In the end we had to wait until early in the New Year to get the final count. Amazingly Obama’s margin went from 2% on election night to 3.85% at the end.

I was grateful during this period for PBer Andy JS who played a huge role monitoring changing totals from across the US and maintaining a publicly available spreadsheet.

This time there was no competition but the final Hillary Clinton vote lead will be politically important.

Mike Smithson




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The PB LAB leadership Election Prediction Competition Winners: Alex Bolton and John Loony get closest

Monday, September 26th, 2016

This was the election result.

Eligible voters: 654,006
Votes cast: 506,438
Spoilt ballots: 1,042
Corbyn: 313,209 – 61.85%
Smith: 193,229 – 38.15%
Margin: 23.70%

Alex Bolton and John Loony will win in addition to the bragging rights copies of what’s set to be the political best seller of 2016 which has just been published. This is the follow up to the 2015 hit “Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box” called imaginatively “More Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box”. It is by two very notable academics Phil Cowley and Robert Ford.

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Congratulations.

Also I’m delighted to announce that the Referendum Prediction Competition was won by Mike K. Sorry if this has been a long time coming but there was so much news in the period after June 23rd that this got squeezed out week after week and then I went on holiday. My apologies.

Thanks again to Mark Hopkins of Nojam for setting up the system to operate both competitions.

Mike Smithson




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Use your political forecasting skills to enter the 2016 PB Labour leadership PRIZE Competition

Tuesday, August 23rd, 2016

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Simply record here Smith or Corbyn;your predicted winning margin & turnout

Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simply predict who’ll win the LAB contest and the winning margin. There’s a tie-breaker question as well – the turnout.

Your predictions should be to two decimal points and the competition will close at 1900 BST tomorrow night.

The two entrants who are closest will win in addition to the bragging rights copies of what’s set to be the political best seller of 2016 which is being published next month. This is the follow up to the 2015 hit “Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box” called imaginatively “More Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box”. It is by two very notable academics Phil Cowley and Robert Ford.

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As ever I am the final arbiter on all aspects of the competition.

Have fun entering and by tomorrow evening we’ll see what the PB consensus is. I think that this is going to be close and my entry will be Corbyn by a small margin.

Have fun.

Mike Smithson




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And the winner the the PB Prize Mayoral Competition is……

Monday, May 9th, 2016

The prize goes to foxinsoxuk

Just looking through the entries the prediction of foxinsoxuk was impressive. Very well done. I will be contacting you about the prize which is one of the nicest, if expensive, political books that I’ve ever seen. It is totally comprehensive and beautifully presented. It contains a mine of information and really is a prize worth winning.

Nelson book

Thanks for Nojam once again for all their help

Mike Smithson





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You’ve seen the latest London Mayoral poll – now predict the election in the PB Prize Competition

Monday, March 14th, 2016

Although it has been hugely overshadowed by the EURef the London Mayoral election on May 5th is proving to be an interesting battle. Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simple predict the first round shares for the main parties and the overall winner.

Remember that the election gives voters two choices. A first choice and what is effectively a second one which only comes into play if their first choice is not in the top two after the first round of counting. It quite possible for the winner on the first round not to become mayor.

The prize is one of the nicest, if expensive, political books that I’ve ever seen. It is totally comprehensive and beautifully presented. It contains a mine of information and really is a prize worth winning.

Entries close on Wednesday morning at 0900 GMT

Nelson book

As in all PB competitions I am the final arbiter on all matters and my rulings are final.

Mike Smithson





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The collective PBers’ EU Referendum prediction: REMAIN to win by 8.6%, turnout 62.75%

Thursday, March 3rd, 2016

There’ll be further prize competitions end April and end May

The chart above shows the breakdown by party supported of entrants in PB’s referendum prediction competition. Interestingly breaking this down by party support not one segment had LEAVE ahead although UKIP voters were very nearly there.

People are competing for a £250 free bet with William Hill which has indicated that it will provide similar prizes as we get nearer the big day.

Mike Smithson





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Enter the Politicalbetting Prize Referendum competition

Monday, February 29th, 2016

Predict the LEAVE and turnout percentages to 2 decimal points
Win a £250 free bet at William Hill

Using the bespoke NoJam template you will need to enter the LEAVE and turnout pecentage down to decimal points The prize will go to the person with the smallest overall error.

I am delighted to announce that William Hill has once again agreed to provide a competition prize of a free bet for £250. If the winner does not have an account then he/she will have to open one to receive the prize. This is only open to people over the age of 18.

All the entries can be seen using the widget. As usual I am in my absolute discretion the total arbiter of all matters relating to the competition. Entries close on Thursday at 10pm.

Click on the menu to check what others are doing and the overall summary prediction.

Thanks to Mark Hopkins for creating the competition widget.

Best of luck.

Mike Smithson





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Only one PB Oldham competition entrant over-stated Labour in the by-election and he wins by a huge margin

Saturday, December 5th, 2015

Congratulations and the prize to Michael Paterson

The sensational Oldham result took all but one of the 320 PB competition entrants by surprise. Michael Paterson wins the prize of the Cowley/Kavanagh book of the 2015 general election

Here’s a full list of all the entries in winning order.

Thanks again to Mark Hopkins of Nojam for providing the excellent competition widget.

Mike Smithson