Archive for the 'Coalition' Category


REMAIN lead drops to lowest level yet in ComRes phone poll for ITV

Wednesday, March 23rd, 2016

Why we should stay in Europe according to Alan Johnson  Labour    BBC News   YouTube

The ComRes press release states:

Remain” leads “Leave” by seven points according to the latest ComRes poll for ITV News (fieldwork conducted over the weekend, before the events in Brussels). The seven point lead is the lowest recorded in a ComRes telephone poll since the General Election, however, it is in line with the eight point lead in the February ComRes / ITV News poll (although another ComRes poll for the Daily Mail had shown the Remain lead rising to 12 points after David Cameron had agreed the deal in Brussels).

In this new poll 48% back Remain, while 41% say they would vote for Leave if there was a referendum tomorrow. The lead widens when people’s relative likelihood to vote is taken into account: if turnout patterns between different demographic groups at the referendum reflect those at last year’s General Election, there would be a 14 point lead for remaining in the EU.

The poll also finds that David Cameron is the most important politician in deciding how people will vote at the referendum. One in three (34%) Britons say the Prime Minister will be important in deciding how they vote. Boris Johnson is named by 29% while one in four (24%) say Jeremy Corbyn will be important to them…


YouGov London Mayoral poll has Sadiq with 7% lead

Monday, March 14th, 2016

This latest poll follows the Opinium survey for the Evening Standard last week that had Khan with a 5% lead on first preferences which rose to a 10% margin over Zac when second preferences were allocated.

Both YouGov and Opinium are online and at 2012 both had the top two most accurate surveys.

This looks like reasonably good news for Zac and for those PBers who are holding vouchers at 33/1 on him winning.

The PB London Mayoral Competition post will be re-published later.

1615 UPDATE: LAB level with CON in latest ICM Phone poll

Mike Smithson


Another big night of WH2016 primaries

Wednesday, March 9th, 2016


Local By-Election Results : March 3rd 2016

Friday, March 4th, 2016

Bloomfield (Lab defence) on Blackpool
Result: Labour 450 (58% +13%), Conservative 150 (19% -1%), United Kingdom Independence Party 118 (15% -10%), Green Party 32 (4% -5%), Liberal Democrat 31 (4%, no candidate in 2015)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 300 (39%) on a swing of 7% from Conservative to Labour

Alderholt (Con defence) on East Dorset
Result: Conservative 384 (47% -16%), Liberal Democrat 376 (46%, no candidate in 2015), Labour 49 (6%, no candidate in 2015)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 8 (1%) on a notional swing of 31% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Bondfields (Con defence) on Havant
Result: Conservative 207 (30% -3%), Liberal Democrat 187 (27% +16%), Labour 148 (22% -7%), United Kingdom Independence Party 143 (21%, no candidate in 2014)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 20 (3%) on a swing of 9.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Whissendine (Lib Dem defence) on Rutland
Result: Liberal Democrat 265 (65% -1%), Conservative 109 (27% -7%), United Kingdom Independence Party 33 (8%, in 2015)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 156 (38%) on a swing of 3% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat


South Carolina goes as expected – an overwhelming victory for Hillary

Sunday, February 28th, 2016

South Carolina Primary Election Results 2016   The New York Times
New York Times

A great platform for “Super Tuesday”

As I write the votes are still being counted in South Carolina but the networks all declared her the overwhelming winner of South Carolina based on the exit polls alone.

She’s certain to pick up the lion’s share of the 59 delegates at stake and goes into Tuesday very much as the presumptive nominee.

Mike Smithson


Tonight’s local by-election line-up has 3 LAB defences and an LD one

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Crompton (Lab defence) on Bolton
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 39, Conservatives 15, Liberal Democrats 3, UKIP 3 (Labour majority of 18)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Labour 2,363 (60%), UKIP 826 (21%), Conservative 456 (12%), Liberal Democrat 148 (4%), Independent 121 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: Bilkis Bashir-Ismali (Lab), Laura Diggle (Green), Paul Eccles (UKIP), Ryan Haslam (Con), Garry Veevers (Lib Dem)

In the 2004 local elections something quite remarkable happened in Bolton, the Liberal Democrats became the largest party on the council (Lib Dem 21, Lab 20, Con 19) of course it didn’t last long and in 2006 they started a long slide to their three councillors at the moment and Bolton returned to it’s long term tradition of being a solid Labour council which poses the question therefore of whether Bolton wants an inbuilt majority for Labour or are they seeking an alternative but each option disappoints? If that is indeed the case then UKIP could be in for a very bad night indeed, after all polling 19% at last year’s elections (from a standing start in 2011) means that they have a long way to fall back.

Lower Stoke (Lab defence) on Coventry
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 41, Conservatives 13 (Labour majority of 28)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Labour 1,854 (47%), UKIP 938 (24%), Conservative 600 (15%), Green Party 259 (7%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 248 (6%), British National Party 70 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated:Aimee Challenor (Green Party), Christopher Glenn (Lib Dem), Harjinder Sehmi (UKIP), Rupinder Singh (Lab), Eliane Yebkal (Con)

When the Conservatives gained control of Coventry in 2004 Labour were sure “This is just a temporary blip” and it is true that just six years later Labour regained control and now have a majority of 28, but at the same time at the general election the three seats that make up Coventry there was a 0.45% swing to the Conservatives making Coventry North West as well as Coventry South into Labour marginal seats and whilst there is no chance of the Conservatives gaining Coventry in 2016, the fact that Coventry has seen a Labour lead of 33% in 1997 slump to just 15% in 18 years is something that will no doubt give Labour several sleepless nights for years to come.

West End North (Lib Dem defence) on Eastleigh
Result of council at last election (2015): Liberal Democrats 38, Conservatives 6 (Liberal Democrat majority of 32)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Liberal Democrat 1,156 (40%), Conservative 1,020 (35%), UKIP 446 (15%), Labour 280 (10%)
Candidates duly nominated: Andy Andrews (Lab), Janice Asman (Lib Dem), Steven Broomfield (Con), Glynn Fleming (Green), Hugh McGuinness (UKIP)

When the Conservatives brought Eastleigh back into the fold at the general election, they managed to do so on a very fractional increase in the Conservative vote (from 39% in 2010 to 42% in 2015) the real reason was the collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote from 47% to just 26% so you would expect therefore that in the Eastleigh council elections (held on the same day) the Liberal Democrat vote would collapse compared with the 2011 local elections (and while it did fall 10%) there was only a 7% swing from Lib Dem to Con compared to the 12% swing at the general election so therefore there has to be a very strong chance that the Lib Dems should be able to hold this ward.

Cranford (Lab defence) on Hounslow
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 49, Conservatives 11 (Labour majority of 38)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 2,085, 1,813, 1,643 (55%)
Conservatives 987, 851, 801 (26%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 508 (13%)
Liberal Democrat 235 (6%)
Candidates duly nominated: Sukhbir Dhaliwal (Lab), Nico Fekete (Green), Hina Malik (Lib Dem), Sukhdev Maras (Con), George Radulski (UKIP)

The last time that Labour had 49 seats back in 1994, the opposition was made up of 6 Conservatives and 5 Liberal Democrats and from that moment on Labour dropped so that by 2006 Hounslow was a hung council but that didn’t last too long and it only took two elections for Labour to get back to 49 councillors and eliminate the Liberal Democrats as an opposition group member. However, with the London Mayoral and Assembly elections on the way a good Conservative performance in a Labour heartland will allow them to say that they are the only challengers to Labour in the capital and that as a result, Zac Goldsmith should be elected Mayor to counter a Labour controlled Assembly.

Compiled by Harry Hayfield


Trump and Sanders heading for big wins in New Hampshire

Wednesday, February 10th, 2016

CNN   Breaking News  U.S.  World  Weather  Entertainment   Video News (1)


If Trump fails to win tonight then his bid will effectively be over

Tuesday, February 9th, 2016


If Hillary can keep the gap in single figures she claim to be the “comeback kid”

As we saw after last week’s Iowa caucuses this stage in the White House race everything is all about expectations. So although Cruz won last week all the attention went on Rubio who did a fair bit better than expected.

Trump, quite remarkably, has led led in every single New Hampshire poll  since June – all  75 of them. He went into today’s New Hampshire primary with a 17% RCP polling average lead and needs a clear victory that reflects the perception that he’s the front runner. If by any chance he doesn’t make it people would question his ongoing national poll leads as well as the mountain of surveys from other states.  At least in Iowa last week he hadn’t been the leader in the polls.

Likewise Socialist 74 year old, Bernie Sanders, has to have an emphatic victory. He’s gone for a total of 40 polls all showing him in the lead and the Real Clear Politics Average currently has him 13.65 ahead. If Hillary comes in with the gap in single figures then her team will be claiming some sort of victory.

One factor about Sanders is that he’s a senator from Vermont and New Hampshire has a record of giving good support to contenders from neighbouring states.

If you are staying up have a good evening.  If it is not as clear cut as the polls we could have an exciting few hours.

Mike Smithson