Archive for the 'Coalition' Category

h1

After a challenging election the final surveys from Ipsos-MORI, Survation and Panelbase win the polling accuracy race

Friday, September 19th, 2014

whatanight (1)

The polling lessons of September 18th

As I have been repeatedly saying over the past few weeks the referendum posed a massive challenge for the pollsters. A big aspect, featured in Marf’s carton this morning, were what became known as the “shy Noes” – those who opposed change but were often reluctant in the emotion-charged atmosphere of the election to say so.

The other big uncertainty was the record turnout with groups of voters who’d never been to a polling booth before taking part in the election. This meant that the groups that pollsters of all types find it difficult to reach – like the young, the Ds and the Es – were going to play a big part.

    In the end the final polls from Ipsos-MORI, Survation and Panelbase won the day. Congratulations to all involved.

The winning margin of 11% was larger than any of their final shares but that pointed to a hardening up of the NO support in the final 24 hours. There was also the fact of lower turnouts in YES strongholds like Glasgow.

The YouGov survey yesterday evening of those who had responded to earlier referendum polls was mostly asking how people had voted. It found differing turnout levels between YES and NO with some late swing. The British Polling Council does not usually count what are a form of exit poll when it comes to comparing election surveys.

Thanks again to Marf.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




h1

A solid win for NO but what about that “vow” by Cameron, Clegg and Miliband?

Friday, September 19th, 2014

This front page could come to haunt the three leaders



h1

Scotland decides: the Loch Ness Monster (and Marf) enter the fray

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

refvoterturnoutNEW (1)

But does this benefit NO or YES?

Less than three hours to go and all the indications that that the turnout is very large. At this stage there’s nothing to measure it against and it’s hard making a prediction on something which there’s an active betting market.

Quite who this benefits most is also hard to say. Whether it is YES getting out the first time voters or NO bringing in the “Shy Noes” or maybe it’s a large slab of both.

    A independence referendum, as I’ve written about before, is a normal election in steroids and so this is proving to be.

High turnouts mean longer counts and there is no official exit poll. We might, however, get data on polling that has taken place during the day.

Thanks to Marf yet again for her drawing.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the final two polls to be completed have NO with the largest leads

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

So the last poll is out. The Ipsos-MORI phone survey completed yesterday evening has a 6% lead. That compares with a 2% lead in its poll for STV published yesterday evening and based on fieldwork carried out Monday and Tuesday.

    What’s striking is that the latest Ipsos-MORI split is the same as the latest Survation phone poll split where fieldwork ended at 9pm last night

If this is not just statistical noise, as it could be, then it is positive for NO and not good news for the separatists.

Ipsos-MORI has a long tradition of seeking to have the final poll at general elections on the grounds that it wants to be able to pick up late swings.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

IndyRef – we move into the closing day of the campaign

Tuesday, September 16th, 2014



h1

How the Betfair #IndyRef price has changed over the past month

Tuesday, September 16th, 2014

There really hasn’t been that much movement

Coming up this evening ICM for the Scotsman and then Survation for the Mail – both polls online.

Surprisingly betting has not been as heavy as on previous days. Everybody is waiting for new polls.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

Make no mistake the polls point to the IndyRef being on a knife-edge and so much depends on turnout

Sunday, September 14th, 2014

More than 80% of postal votes have now been returned

The big unknown from this election is turnout – something that all the pollsters seek to measure and apply when working out their final vote shares.

Thus the 2% NO lead ICM phone poll used the firm’s standard turnout adjuster of attaching a 50% discount to those who didn’t vote in previous parliamentary elections.

But in the context Thursday’s totally unprecedented election we don’t know whether that’s a valid approach or not.

The other major phone pollster, Ipsos-MORI, only includes those saying they are 100% certain in headline figures. Again how valid will that be given the immense interest and enormity of Thursday’s vote.

We do know that more people, an estimated 97%, are on the Scottish electoral registers and that there has been a huge effort to get this up to that level in advance of the referendum. But how many of the new names will cast votes on Thursday and are the more marginal ones more likely to be YES supporters?

The current postal vote turnout is in excess of 80% pointing to and overall postal vote turnout of 85%+. The assumption is that NO will have the edge amongst these voters largely because they are older. Will that hold?

So many imponderables and so much of this is emotional which is hard to measure.

I am maintaining my split betting position so I win the same whatever

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

This week’s local By-Election Results

Friday, September 12th, 2014

Castle on Carlisle (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 364 (38% -4% on 2011), Conservatives 212 (22%), UKIP 208 (22%), Liberal Democrats 112 (12% -22%), Greens 51 (5% -5%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 152 (16%) on a swing of 13% from Labour to Conservative

Castle on Cumbria (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 389 (38% -3%), Conservatives 245 (24% +13%), UKIP 235 (23% +3%), Liberal Democrats 112 (11% -13%), Greens 51 (5% +1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 144 (14%) on a swing of 8% from Labour to Conservative

Collingham and Meering (Con Defence) and Ollerton (Lab Defence) on Newark and Sherwood
Collingham and Meering
Result: Conservatives 568 (41%), Independent 476 (34%), UKIP 218 (16%), Labour 118 (9%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 92 (7%)

Ollerton
Result: Labour 837 (58%), Conservatives 323 (22%), UKIP 280 (19%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 514 (36%)

Beckton on Newham (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 1,006 (51%), Conservatives 584 (30%), UKIP 215 (11%), Greens 70 (4%), Liberal Democrats 43 (2%), Christian People’s Alliance 33 (2%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 422 (21%)

Abingdon, Dunmore on Vale of the White Horse (Lib Dem Defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 745 (52%), Conservatives 501 (35%), UKIP 90 (6%), Labour 87 (6%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 244 (17%)