Archive for the 'Coalition' Category


Looks like LAB is preparing for LD coalition negotiations

Monday, April 13th, 2015


My favourite GE15 spread bet: That there’ll be a CON margin on seats of fewer than 12

Friday, April 10th, 2015

SPIN trend

Betting sentiment remains solidly with CON double digit seat margin

The chart shows the trend on the Sporting Index commons seats spread market over the past few months and as can be seen the Tories have opened a double digit lead which has remained for some weeks. Even yesterday’s poor polls for the Tories did not have much impact.

As well as the straight total seats betting as seen above there’s another market I like – CON supremacy over LAB. The terms are

    A prediction on the total number of seats won by one party versus another party at the UK General Election. Note: This market can have a negative result and is a supremacy market where the favourite is listed first and the underdog second.”

My bet is a sell at 12 seats which has now edged down to 9. What this means is that I’m a winner if the eventual margin is fewer than 12 seats – the actual level of my return dependent on the final gap. So if LAB ended up 20 ahead I’d make 20+12=32 multiplied by the stake level.

If my prediction is wrong and the Tories, shall we say, end up 20 ahead then my losses would be 20 minus the bet level (12) multiplied by the stake level. So at, say, £20 a unit (which is not what I’ve bet) I’d lose £160.

I’ve gone in to this market rather than the total seats because the gap is more interesting and a big unknown is how many seats the non-main two parties will end up with.

With spread betting the more you are right the more you win and the more that you are wrong the more you lose. So the most important first step is to work out the down-side risk. What’s the most you can lose and in this case I can’t envisage the circumstances in which the Tories are more than 30 seats ahead – in which case my loss would be 18 units.

There can be quite heavy potential losses with spread betting if you call it wrong as I found in 2001 when I made the assumption on election day that the reported very low turnout would favour CON more than LAB. That remains my biggest ever gambling loss.

My latest bet is hopefully more than covered by my debate bet on Sturgeon a week ago when I came away with a 35 unit win on which leader would poll best.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


So who won?

Thursday, April 2nd, 2015


UPDATE Sturgeon wins with YouGov

ICM makes it Miliband

Guardian/ICM #leadersdebate poll:

25% Miliband
24% Cameron
19% Farage
17% Sturgeon
9% Clegg
3% Bennett
2% Wood


Boost for the Tories as the economy once again becomes the top issue

Wednesday, April 1st, 2015

A good start for the Crosby campaign

The numbers in the YouGov issues trackers tables say it all. Big jumps for the economy to top slot as top issue facing the country and you/your family.

This suggests that the opening salvoes of the campaign from Cameron and Co are the ones hitting home at least in this first phase.

Health, LAB top issue is down at third in the top table and second in the first. It is however top issue for that key group of swing voters – the 2010 LDs.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


LAB regains YouGov lead and Newsnight index has gap down to 2 seats

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

My guess is that the Newsnight change is largely down to the new ComRes Scotland poll which is a tad more positive for LAB than other surveys.


The first two election broadcasts – CON and LAB

Monday, March 30th, 2015

LAB loses its YouGov lead


Big boost for the Tories in tonight’s ComRes phone poll

Sunday, March 29th, 2015


Tonight’s YouGov has LAB taking 4% lead and Ed getting ratings boost

Saturday, March 28th, 2015

All fieldwork carried out after Thursday TV interviews