Archive for the 'Coalition' Category

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The latest round of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals’ polling finds a 5% CON to LAB swing – slightly more than the 3-4% we’ve been seeing in recent national polls

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

I love this Tweet from Lord A



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For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to a record high

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Is this going to fade or are we seeing a permanent change?

The record polling shares continue for UKIP with the latest YouGov daily poll moving up from yesterday’s 18% to 19% this morning. The latest figures have CON on 31% and LAB on 33% a joint main two party aggregate of just 64% which is a record low for this parliament.

Of course the purples are enjoying the aftermath of their by election successes a week ago and as is being widely pointed the SDP was doing this in the early 80s only to fade at GE1983.

What’s clearly driving this is the continuing weakness of the three main parties and the low esteem in which their leaders are regarded. Nature, as they say, abhors a vacuum and that is how many are seeing politics at the moment.

The upcoming Rochester by election will help keep the UKIP narrative going and as each day goes by we get closer to the general election now only six and a bit months away.

    GE15 will, of course, not be decided on national aggregate vote shares but on the outcomes in 650 separate elections in each of the constituencies fought under first past the post – a fact that makes things very challenging for UKIP.

In these elections you don’t vote for a party or a leader but for an individual to represent your area at Westminster.

The big polling development at this coming general election is the huge number of single seat surveys that are being carried out and another batch from Lord Ashcroft are due to be released later in the day.

Viewing the battle from a single seat perspective rather than national aggregate votes the position of UKIP might look very different. But last week the purples made that critical breakthrough in Clacton and who knows how many MPs they’ll end up with?

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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Today’s PMQs in full – the first after conference season

Wednesday, October 15th, 2014



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Rochester & Strood looks set to be bigger even than Eastleigh

Tuesday, October 14th, 2014

Kelly Tolurst 4/6 favourite to win 1st all postal by-election primary

Kelly’s opponent Anna Firth at 11/10



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The GE15 debates take a big step forward – but what about the Greens?

Monday, October 13th, 2014

Full story here.



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The Saturday night rolling polling blog

Saturday, October 11th, 2014

The big polling question tonight is why there’s such a big difference in the UKIP shares. Opinium 17%, YouGov 16% with Survation on 25%.

Chart updated to include Survation with UKIP on record 25% for any poll and YouGov for Sunday Times.

For ICM’s Wisdom Index those sampled are not not asked who they’d vote for but to give their predictions of party %ages, At GE10 it was said to have been more accurate than any other poll.

The Opinium poll has changes of CON -4, LAB +1, LD +2, UKIP n/c, GRN n/c. Most of the fieldwork took place BEFORE Thursday’s by-elections. I’d expect any surveys polled afterwards to show UKIP boost.



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Four months before being elected Tory leader Margaret Thatcher was a 50-1 shot

Saturday, October 11th, 2014

Did you get on? I certainly didn’t

The BBC Parliament Channel has been re-running the October 1974 General Election results programme as part of its intermittent series of playing back old elections. I love them and you learn so much simply from seeing how things were seen then.

A common feature of these programmes as they draw to their close is speculation about what will happen to the losing party leaders. Inevitably defeat focusses the mind and it was clear in October 1974 that Edward Heath’s tenure as CON leader wasn’t going to last.

For me the most striking feature of the October 1974 programme was that captured in the screen-shot above. The betting prices on who’d be Heath’s replacement. Maggie was at 50/1.

The interesting thing is not the long price on Maggie but that she figured in the betting at all. Just about nobody was tipping her and I certainly was not attracted to a bet. As I recall my money was on Willie Whitelaw.

Mrs. Thatcher was elected leader on February 11th 1975. She remained until 28 November 1990 aftet winning three successive general elections.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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The day after: Betting and other by-election round up

Friday, October 10th, 2014