Archive for the 'Coalition' Category

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Three local by-elections tonight – won last time by UKIP, LAB & CON

Thursday, August 20th, 2015

Harry Hayfield’s preview

Camborne, Pendarves on Cornwall (UKIP defence)
Result of council at last election (2013): Independents 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 8, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebyon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25)
Result of ward at last election (2013): UKIP 340 (32%), Conservative 319 (30%), Mebyon Kernow 211 (20%), Labour 200 (19%)
Candidates duly nominated: Nathan Billings (Lib Dem), Peter Channon (Ind), Val Dalley (Lab), Deborah Fox (Mebynon Kernow), John Herd (Con), Jacqueline Merrick (Green), Michael Pascoe (UKIP)

Cornwall’s been quite the hive of activity in terms of local by-elections since 2013. There have been five in the last two and a bit years and in those by-elections it has been honour even between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats (Con 3, Lib Dem 2) in seats but in terms of votes cast the party taking the hit is clearly UKIP as their vote is down 8% on the elections in 2013. An example of this could be seen in Mabe in July last year where UKIP lost the seat to the Conservatives and ended up in third. As for the Conservative they had a very close squeak as the majority over the Lib Dems was just a single vote, so could this ward (in the heart of the old Falmouth and Camborne constituency) also be a Con / Lib Dem battleground. Well, possibly, it all depends on Mebynon Kernow (the Cornish nationalists). Whilst not having the same degree of an election triumph as the SNP in Scotland, their vote has remained remarkably static compared to the elections in 2013 and a stable nationalist vote is just as tricky to assess as a surging nationalist vote. Will their supporters be tempted to swich to a party they feel can defeat the incumbent (as they did in Illogan) or will they remain loyal and influence the result?

Shotton and South Hetton on Durham (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 94, Independents 9, Liberal Democrats 9, Derwentside Independents 8, Conservatives 4, Spennymoor Independents 1, Wear Valley Independents 1 (Labour majority of 62)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 893, 871 (60%)
Independent 686 (23%)
FAIR 493 (17%)
Candidates duly nominated: Michael Anderson (Lib Dem), Beaty Bainbridge (Con), Ted Hall (North East Party), Lee-James Harris (UKIP), Alan Liversidge (Lab), Martie Warin (Lib Dem)

For people in support of proportional representation, Durham is a classic example. Labour only polled 52% of the vote in the local elections and yet won 75% of the seats. This is in comparison to the 12% of the vote that went to the Independents and yet only won 7% of the seats. But for those bemoaning the first past the post electoral system, there is an answer and that answer is UKIP. Since their local election surge in 2013, UKIP have proved that in actual and virtual one party states, UKIP poll exceptionally well and by association can turn rock solid areas into a marginal at the blink of an election.

Witney North on West Oxfordshire (Ind defence, elected as Con)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 40, Labour 4, Liberal Democrats 4, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 31)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 450 (44%), Green Party 286 (28%), Labour 179 (17%), Liberal Democrats 120 (12%)
Candidates duly nominated: Bridgette Hickman (Green), Trevor License (Lab), Carol Reynolds (Con), James Robertshaw (UKIP), Diane West (Lib Dem)

From 2003 until 2011, there was only one direction of travel in West Oxfordshire and that direction was Conservative. In those eight years the Conservatives gained 15 seats and managed to wipe out the Independents (who prior to 2003 had actually run the council) as well as make two gains from the Liberal Democrats and one from Labour. Since then the Conservatives have reversed course but it has not been the Independents making the gains but Labour to such an extent that in 2014 they became the official opposition on the council. However, with both main opposition parties tied on four seats each, it could be argued that the Greens (who polled very well here in 2012) could prove that they are not the only alternative opposition.



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An LD gain from CON and a CON gain from LAB the main highlights of this week’s local by elections

Friday, August 14th, 2015

Crosskeys on Caerphilly (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 354 (51% -4%), Plaid Cymru 179 (26% +13%), United Kingdom Independence Party 166 (24%, no candidate in 2012)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 175 (25%) on a swing of 8.5% from Labour to Plaid Cymru

Glasbury on Powys (Con defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 457 (44%, no candidate in 2012), Conservatives 415 (40% -15%), Independent 106 (10% -23%), Green Party 52 (5%, no candidate in 2012)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 42 (4%) on a notional swing of 29.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Denney and Banknock on Falkirk (SNP defence)
Result: Scottish National Party 2,576 (69% +26%), Labour 549 (15% -19%), Conservative 431 (12% +6%), Green Party 170 (5%, no candidate in 2012)
Scottish National Party HOLD on the first count with a majority of 2,027 (54%) on a swing of 22.5% from Labour to SNP

Wishaw on North Lanarkshire (SNP defence)
Result: Scottish National Party 1,915 (51% +15%), Labour 1,230 (33% -18%), Conservatives 385 (10% -3%), Scottish Socialist Party 117 (3%, no candidate in 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 67 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Liberal Democrats 37 (1%, no candidate in 2012)
Scottish National Party HOLD on the first count with a majority of 685 (18%) on a swing of 16.5% from Labour to SNP

Pinhoe on Exeter (Lab defence)
Result: Conservatives 755 (42% +8%), Labour 749 (42% -6%), United Kingdom Independence Party 143 (8% -3%), Liberal Democrats 63 (4% +1%), Green Party 62 (3% unchanged), Independent 11 (1%, no candidate in 2012)
Conservative GAIN from Labour with a majority of 6 (0%) on a swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative

Nuneaton, Whitestone on Warwickshire (Con defence)
Result: Conservatives 1,281 (58% +5%), Labour 503 (23% -9%), United Kingdom Independence Party 292 (13%, no candidate in 2013), Green Party 119 (5% -10%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 778 (35%) on a swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative



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It’s The Start of The New Football Season

Saturday, August 8th, 2015

Hi All,

It’s Robert (rcs1000) here, and I’m using the Politicalbetting soapbox to promote a venture that OGH and I are involved in: Crowdscores.

The goal of Crowdscores is to crowdsource sports data. So, instead of buying offical data from Opta, we get fans at the game (or watching TV) to tell us what the score is, who scored etc. We’re getting a lot of traction with this model: more than 10,000 people use our app each week, and it is rated more than four out of five.

Crowdsourcing sports data gives us two advantages: Firstly, we are faster than other live score sites, as traditional media feeds contain an artificial delay (typically 90 seconds). Secondly, we can cover games that other cannot – try getting live scores from Billericay Town games any other way. (It’s in the Ryman’s League, in case you’re wondering.)

So, I have a couple of requests for PB’ers. I’d like you to download the Crowdscores app for your smartphone:


Get it on Google Play

If you are at a football match this weekend, then please do crowd score it for us. And if you like it more than other live score apps, then please make sure that you rate it on the App Store or on Google Play.

Finally: if there is any way you think we could improve the app; or if there is any compelling reason you think some other live score app is better, please drop me an email and let me know. We want to produce the best, most unique, football app out there.

Many thanks,

Robert Smithson



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Biden said to be considering a bid for the presidency

Saturday, August 1st, 2015

This could really shake up the WH2016 betting

As I posted ten days ago a bet at 4/1 that someone other than Hillary would get the nomination was great value and I have a big position.

Potential contenders have until now been overawed by the Hillary factor. But if one big player like Biden enters the fray then others could follow.

Maybe Hillary will have a fight on her hands after all.

Mike Smithson





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Local By-Election Results : July 23rd 2015

Friday, July 24th, 2015

Mill Hill on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 505 (59% -7%), United Kingdom Independence Party 179 (21%, no candidate in 2012), Conservatives 106 (12% -6%), Liberal Democrats 69 (8% -7%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 326 (38%) on a swing of 14% from Labour to United Kingdom Independence Party

New Tredegar on Caerphilly (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 648 (83% unchanged), United Kingdom Independence Party 90 (11%, no candidate in 2012), Conservatives 47 (6%, no candidate in 2012)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 558 (72%) on a swing of 5.5% from Labour to United Kingdom Independence Party

Long Ditton on Elmbridge (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 770 (51% +4%), Conservatives 611 (40% -5%), Green 79 (5%, no candidate in 2012), UKIP 61 (4%, no candidate in 2012)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 159 (11%) on a swing of 4.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Croft Baker on North East Lincolnshire (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 768 (37% -3%), Conservatives 513 (25% -2%), Liberal Democrats 323 (16% +12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 318 (15% -8%), Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 85 (4% +2%), Green 66 (3% -1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 255 (12%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Conservative

Harrow Road on Westminster (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 1,139 (75% +17%), Conservatives 334 (22% +4%), United Kingdom Independence Party 38 (3% -7%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 805 (53%) on a swing of 6.5% from Conservative to Labour



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Full results from this week’s local by-elections

Friday, July 17th, 2015

Greystoke and Hesket on Cumbria (Con defence)
Result: Conservatives 635 (55% +2%), Liberal Democrats 518 (45% +22%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 117 (10%) on a swing of 10% from Con to Lib Dem
NB: UKIP vote in 2013 split 92% Liberal Democrat, 8% Conservative

Gorleston St. Andrew (UKIP defence) and Mile Cross (Lab defence) on Norfolk
Gorleston St. Andrew
Result: Conservative 876 (43% +16%), Labour 773 (38% +2%), United Kingdom Independence Party 285 (14% -23%), Liberal Democrats 66 (3%, no candidate in 2013), Green 51 (3%, no candidate in 2013)
Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 103 (5%) on a swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative

Mile Cross
Result: Labour 749 (52% +7%), Conservatives 279 (19% +8%), Green Party 209 (14% -7%), United Kingdom Independence Party 148 (10% -9%), Liberal Democrats 62 (4% unchanged)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 470 (33%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Conservative

Prestatyn East on Denbighshire (Con defence)
Result: Conservatives 528 (51% +9%), Labour 373 (36% +6%), Independent 76 (7% -19%), Plaid Cymru 61 (6%, no candidate in 2012)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 155 (15%) on a swing of 1.5% from Labour to Conservative

Llay on Wrexham (Lab defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 700 (52%, no candidate in 2012), Labour 353 (26% -40%), Independent 124 (9% -25%), Conservatives 64 (5%, no candidate in 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 60 (4%, no candidate in 2012), Non Party Independent 41 (3%, no candidate in 2012)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 347 (26%) on a notional swing of 46% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Grove on Kingston upon Thames (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 1,577 (60% +26%), Conservatives 688 (26% -5%), Labour 223 (8% -15%), Green 88 (3% -10%), United Kingdom Independence Party 58 (2%, no candidate in 2014)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 889 (34%) on a swing of 15.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Battle Town on Rother (Con defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 751 (58%), Conservatives 342 (26%), United Kingdom Independence Party 107 (8%), Labour 100 (8%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 409 (32%)

Rush Green on Tendring (UKIP defence)
Result: United Kingdom Independence Party 338 (39%), Conservative 290 (33%), Labour 213 (24%), Independent 36 (4%)
UKIP HOLD with a majority of 48 (6%)

Harry Hayfield



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Private polling points to Corbyn victory in Labour’s leadership race

Wednesday, July 15th, 2015

Remember the members polling got it very wrong in 2010.

September 2010: Final LAB members leadership poll

YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Actual final votes
ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0
BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0
BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0
MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4
MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6


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Greece: It’s looking like NO

Sunday, July 5th, 2015