Archive for the 'Coalition' Category

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Biden said to be considering a bid for the presidency

Saturday, August 1st, 2015

This could really shake up the WH2016 betting

As I posted ten days ago a bet at 4/1 that someone other than Hillary would get the nomination was great value and I have a big position.

Potential contenders have until now been overawed by the Hillary factor. But if one big player like Biden enters the fray then others could follow.

Maybe Hillary will have a fight on her hands after all.

Mike Smithson





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Local By-Election Results : July 23rd 2015

Friday, July 24th, 2015

Mill Hill on Blackburn with Darwen (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 505 (59% -7%), United Kingdom Independence Party 179 (21%, no candidate in 2012), Conservatives 106 (12% -6%), Liberal Democrats 69 (8% -7%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 326 (38%) on a swing of 14% from Labour to United Kingdom Independence Party

New Tredegar on Caerphilly (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 648 (83% unchanged), United Kingdom Independence Party 90 (11%, no candidate in 2012), Conservatives 47 (6%, no candidate in 2012)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 558 (72%) on a swing of 5.5% from Labour to United Kingdom Independence Party

Long Ditton on Elmbridge (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 770 (51% +4%), Conservatives 611 (40% -5%), Green 79 (5%, no candidate in 2012), UKIP 61 (4%, no candidate in 2012)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 159 (11%) on a swing of 4.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Croft Baker on North East Lincolnshire (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 768 (37% -3%), Conservatives 513 (25% -2%), Liberal Democrats 323 (16% +12%), United Kingdom Independence Party 318 (15% -8%), Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 85 (4% +2%), Green 66 (3% -1%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 255 (12%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Conservative

Harrow Road on Westminster (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 1,139 (75% +17%), Conservatives 334 (22% +4%), United Kingdom Independence Party 38 (3% -7%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 805 (53%) on a swing of 6.5% from Conservative to Labour



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Full results from this week’s local by-elections

Friday, July 17th, 2015

Greystoke and Hesket on Cumbria (Con defence)
Result: Conservatives 635 (55% +2%), Liberal Democrats 518 (45% +22%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 117 (10%) on a swing of 10% from Con to Lib Dem
NB: UKIP vote in 2013 split 92% Liberal Democrat, 8% Conservative

Gorleston St. Andrew (UKIP defence) and Mile Cross (Lab defence) on Norfolk
Gorleston St. Andrew
Result: Conservative 876 (43% +16%), Labour 773 (38% +2%), United Kingdom Independence Party 285 (14% -23%), Liberal Democrats 66 (3%, no candidate in 2013), Green 51 (3%, no candidate in 2013)
Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 103 (5%) on a swing of 7% from Labour to Conservative

Mile Cross
Result: Labour 749 (52% +7%), Conservatives 279 (19% +8%), Green Party 209 (14% -7%), United Kingdom Independence Party 148 (10% -9%), Liberal Democrats 62 (4% unchanged)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 470 (33%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Conservative

Prestatyn East on Denbighshire (Con defence)
Result: Conservatives 528 (51% +9%), Labour 373 (36% +6%), Independent 76 (7% -19%), Plaid Cymru 61 (6%, no candidate in 2012)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 155 (15%) on a swing of 1.5% from Labour to Conservative

Llay on Wrexham (Lab defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 700 (52%, no candidate in 2012), Labour 353 (26% -40%), Independent 124 (9% -25%), Conservatives 64 (5%, no candidate in 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 60 (4%, no candidate in 2012), Non Party Independent 41 (3%, no candidate in 2012)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 347 (26%) on a notional swing of 46% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Grove on Kingston upon Thames (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 1,577 (60% +26%), Conservatives 688 (26% -5%), Labour 223 (8% -15%), Green 88 (3% -10%), United Kingdom Independence Party 58 (2%, no candidate in 2014)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 889 (34%) on a swing of 15.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Battle Town on Rother (Con defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 751 (58%), Conservatives 342 (26%), United Kingdom Independence Party 107 (8%), Labour 100 (8%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 409 (32%)

Rush Green on Tendring (UKIP defence)
Result: United Kingdom Independence Party 338 (39%), Conservative 290 (33%), Labour 213 (24%), Independent 36 (4%)
UKIP HOLD with a majority of 48 (6%)

Harry Hayfield



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Private polling points to Corbyn victory in Labour’s leadership race

Wednesday, July 15th, 2015

Remember the members polling got it very wrong in 2010.

September 2010: Final LAB members leadership poll

YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Actual final votes
ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0
BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0
BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0
MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4
MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6


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Greece: It’s looking like NO

Sunday, July 5th, 2015



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Local By-Election Results: July 2nd 2015

Friday, July 3rd, 2015

Grantham, Barrowby on Lincolnshire (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 579 (50% +12%), Labour 257 (22% -8%), UKIP 179 (15%, no candidate in 2013), Lincolnshire Independents 155 (13%, no candidate in 2013)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 322 (28%) on a swing of 10% from Labour to Conservative

Hampton Wick on Richmond upon Thames (Con defence)
Result: Liberal Democrat 1,189 (43% +25%), Conservative 1,081 (39% -11%), Green 237 (9% -10%), Labour 185 (7% -7%), UKIP 69 (3%, no candidate in 2014), Independent 7 (0%, no candidate in 2014)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 108 (4%) on a swing of 18% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat



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Local By-Election Result : June 30th 2015

Wednesday, July 1st, 2015

Result: Conservative 561 (40% -14%), Plaid 543 (39% +27%), Labour 234 (17% -12%), Independent 24 (2%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 22 (2% -1%), Liberal Democrats 10 (1% -1%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 18 (1%) on a swing of 21% from Conservative to Plaid



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Marf on Osborne’s plan for the civil service

Thursday, May 21st, 2015

cutsosborne15

PB Update – welcome to Don Brind

Tomorrow the political journalist, Don Brind, is joining our small team of regular guest slot contributors. He is somebody I’ve known a very long time since we both worked at the BBC in the 1970s. In recent times Don has been a regular contributor on The Week

Back in 2007 Don gave me a well argued steer on the then LAB deputy leadership contest to the effect that Harriet Harman, then 10/1, was going to get it. She won.

He’s got very close contacts with LAB and will act as a balance to David Herdson and TSE who are both active Tories. His first column will be tomorrow.

Mike Smithson