Archive for the 'Coalition' Category
The UKIP surge continues. How are the purples going to do at GE2015?
Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013
Ukip get to within just 2 points of the Tories in new Survation poll
Monday, May 20th, 2013
The changes shown are from Survation’s poll just before the May 2 local elections.
Interestingly most of the change appears to have been direct CON>UKIP switch.
Survation came under some strong criticism last year for prompting for Ukip in the same way that they prompt for the other main parties. The way things have developed since then suggests that they were right.
Labour and the Lib Dems will be relatively comfortable with these numbers because the blue team is taking the biggest hit.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
The changes shown are from Survation’s poll just before the May 2 local elections.
Interestingly most of the change appears to have been direct CON>UKIP switch.
-
Survation came under some strong criticism last year for prompting for Ukip in the same way that they prompt for the other main parties. The way things have developed since then suggests that they were right.
Labour and the Lib Dems will be relatively comfortable with these numbers because the blue team is taking the biggest hit.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
It’s going to be challenging for Cameron to appeal to both 2010 LDs and Ukip supporters at the same time
Sunday, May 19th, 2013
The issues voters told YouGov would impact on their vote.How do Tories appeal to both 2010 LDs &Ukip supporters? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013
Above is a fascinating chart showing the issues that those sampled by YouGov said would influence their vote at the next general election.
There are two columns, I would suggest, you should focus on: the views of Ukip supporters and those of 2010 LDs. These, of course, are where most the allegiance shifting has been taking place and the level of what these electors do will more than anything determine the outcome.
The question for the Tories is how on earth do you appeal to both without alienating the other?
As can be seen UKIP supporters are much more likely to be concerned about immigration and Europe as those who voted for Nick Clegg’s party 3 years ago.
Backers of Farage are much less interested in education which, with all the Gove initiatives, is a serious concern for many 2010 LDs.
Going heavy in one direction, say Ukip voters, is going to alienate 2010 LDs who you hope, at least, would stick with the yellows in the key CON-LAB battlegrounds.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
The issues voters told YouGov would impact on their vote.How do Tories appeal to both 2010 LDs &Ukip supporters? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013
Above is a fascinating chart showing the issues that those sampled by YouGov said would influence their vote at the next general election.
There are two columns, I would suggest, you should focus on: the views of Ukip supporters and those of 2010 LDs. These, of course, are where most the allegiance shifting has been taking place and the level of what these electors do will more than anything determine the outcome.
-
The question for the Tories is how on earth do you appeal to both without alienating the other?
As can be seen UKIP supporters are much more likely to be concerned about immigration and Europe as those who voted for Nick Clegg’s party 3 years ago.
Backers of Farage are much less interested in education which, with all the Gove initiatives, is a serious concern for many 2010 LDs.
Going heavy in one direction, say Ukip voters, is going to alienate 2010 LDs who you hope, at least, would stick with the yellows in the key CON-LAB battlegrounds.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
Yet another pollster has LAB dropping to the mid-30s
Saturday, May 18th, 2013
And ComRes online has Ukip up to a record 19% for any firm
ComRes leader ratings see Dave drop to new low & EdM to new high
Amongst other questions
If a party wants my support at the next general election, it is important to me that they offer a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU
Agree: 49%
Disagree: 27%
Don’t know: 24%
Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the next election
Agree: 31%
Disagree: 37%
Don’t know: 32%
Although 59% of Labour voters agree, 10% disagree and 31% don’t know.
The Conservative Party is more divided over Europe now than it was when John Major was Prime Minister
Agree: 57%
Disagree: 14%
Don’t know: 29%
Even CON voters are more likely to agree (43%) than disagree (26%). 74% of UKIP voters agree.
David Cameron has the authority over his party that he needs to be an effective Prime Minister
Agree: 28%
Disagree: 48%
Don’t know: 24%
And ComRes online has Ukip up to a record 19% for any firm
ComRes leader ratings see Dave drop to new low & EdM to new high
Amongst other questions
If a party wants my support at the next general election, it is important to me that they offer a referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU
Agree: 49%
Disagree: 27%
Don’t know: 24%
Ed Miliband is likely to be Prime Minister after the next election
Agree: 31%
Disagree: 37%
Don’t know: 32%
Although 59% of Labour voters agree, 10% disagree and 31% don’t know.
The Conservative Party is more divided over Europe now than it was when John Major was Prime Minister
Agree: 57%
Disagree: 14%
Don’t know: 29%Even CON voters are more likely to agree (43%) than disagree (26%). 74% of UKIP voters agree.
David Cameron has the authority over his party that he needs to be an effective Prime Minister
Agree: 28%
Disagree: 48%
Don’t know: 24%
Hammond has the right coalition-building idea
Saturday, May 18th, 2013
Social conservatives are the key swing vote of the moment
When David Cameron was Leader of the Opposition, he put a great deal of effort into detoxifying the Conservative brand – the analysis being that in order to gain an election-winning coalition, the Conservatives needed to pull swing centrist voters from both Labour and the Lib Dems. In as far as it went, that was true but it was far from the whole picture.
By going out of his way to ‘not scare the horses’, Cameron was making an open pitch to those who switch between the governing parties based on pragmatic issues like competence and character and seeking to minimise anti-Tory tactical voting. The risk is that rather like New Labour, dominance in the centre comes at the price of an eroding core (not that the dominance was sufficiently achieved, as it turned out).
The result of all three established parties following the same dynamic is that Clegg, Cameron and Miliband occupy a very narrow stretch of political ground on social policy. Arguably the gap on economics isn’t much wider, despite the intensity of the debate, but at least the sound-money / go-for-growth debate satisfies most points of view. By contrast, none of the three leaderships have much to offer to social conservatives.
The Lib Dems don’t have to do so and probably couldn’t even if they tried: their social liberalism is an inherent part of their identity. By contrast, both Labour and the Conservatives have sections of their traditional support bases whose views on social policy are far removed from their leaderships’ metropolitan liberal consensus.
Politics, as nature, abhors a vacuum and it’s in that space which UKIP is now finding support and success. The county council elections across large parts of traditionally Tory country demonstrated their ability to win votes from the Blues but a council win on Thursday for UKIP in what had previously been a very safe Rotherham Labour seat, as well as strong Purple showings in parliamentary by-elections over the last year show that Farage’s party is winning support from those who feel alienated by and disenfranchised from the three main parties, none of whom seem to stand for their values.
Which make the comments from Defence Secretary Philip Hammond that the government has spent too much time on gay marriage particularly timely and notable.
Nothing is riling social conservatives more at the moment than gay marriage and recognition of that is the first step in reaching out to them.
Winning, or winning back, their support will be critical to either Tory or Labour success at the next general election, not least because both Thatcher’s and Blair’s election-winning coalitions included many such voters.
It certainly won’t be easy for any party leader to attract social conservatives while simultaneously winning the support of enough of those who float between parties and those who have only a weak intention to vote at all – but then as someone who should know once said, if you can’t ride two horses, you shouldn’t be in the circus.
David Herdson
Social conservatives are the key swing vote of the moment
When David Cameron was Leader of the Opposition, he put a great deal of effort into detoxifying the Conservative brand – the analysis being that in order to gain an election-winning coalition, the Conservatives needed to pull swing centrist voters from both Labour and the Lib Dems. In as far as it went, that was true but it was far from the whole picture.
By going out of his way to ‘not scare the horses’, Cameron was making an open pitch to those who switch between the governing parties based on pragmatic issues like competence and character and seeking to minimise anti-Tory tactical voting. The risk is that rather like New Labour, dominance in the centre comes at the price of an eroding core (not that the dominance was sufficiently achieved, as it turned out).
The result of all three established parties following the same dynamic is that Clegg, Cameron and Miliband occupy a very narrow stretch of political ground on social policy. Arguably the gap on economics isn’t much wider, despite the intensity of the debate, but at least the sound-money / go-for-growth debate satisfies most points of view. By contrast, none of the three leaderships have much to offer to social conservatives.
The Lib Dems don’t have to do so and probably couldn’t even if they tried: their social liberalism is an inherent part of their identity. By contrast, both Labour and the Conservatives have sections of their traditional support bases whose views on social policy are far removed from their leaderships’ metropolitan liberal consensus.
Politics, as nature, abhors a vacuum and it’s in that space which UKIP is now finding support and success. The county council elections across large parts of traditionally Tory country demonstrated their ability to win votes from the Blues but a council win on Thursday for UKIP in what had previously been a very safe Rotherham Labour seat, as well as strong Purple showings in parliamentary by-elections over the last year show that Farage’s party is winning support from those who feel alienated by and disenfranchised from the three main parties, none of whom seem to stand for their values.
- Which make the comments from Defence Secretary Philip Hammond that the government has spent too much time on gay marriage particularly timely and notable.
Nothing is riling social conservatives more at the moment than gay marriage and recognition of that is the first step in reaching out to them.
Winning, or winning back, their support will be critical to either Tory or Labour success at the next general election, not least because both Thatcher’s and Blair’s election-winning coalitions included many such voters.
It certainly won’t be easy for any party leader to attract social conservatives while simultaneously winning the support of enough of those who float between parties and those who have only a weak intention to vote at all – but then as someone who should know once said, if you can’t ride two horses, you shouldn’t be in the circus.
David Herdson
Introducing the new third favourite for Dave’s job – Defence Secretary Philip Hammond
Friday, May 17th, 2013
The money goes on Phillip Hammond for next CON leader.Hills move his price from 10/1 to 8/1. May is 4/1 Boris 5/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2013
The money goes on Phillip Hammond for next CON leader.Hills move his price from 10/1 to 8/1. May is 4/1 Boris 5/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2013
If the coalition collapsed then the LDs are NOT going to keep the Tories in power with a supply and confidence arrangement
Friday, May 17th, 2013
I’ve just put a bet on at Ladbrokes on 2013 general election at 16/1. Hard to see how the CON & LDs can divorce without early election.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013
A 16/1 bet equates to a 5.8% chance of a 2013 general election. I think chances might be higher. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013
Coalition breakup = Early general election
The main story in the Times this morning is a report that preparatory work is going on in Downing Street to deal with the consequences of a break-up of the coalition.
The report seems to be based on wishful thinking that it would be the LDs who would want to close it down not the Tories. Fat chance. It is simply not going to happen that way. The yellows are in this for the duration and if there is a break-up then Cameron and his team will be the instigators.
@msmithsonpb To avoid an election when they’re polling in single digits
— Toby Young (@toadmeister) May 17, 2013
A key part of the story is that post divorce the LDs would allow the Tories to carry on with a supply and confidence arrangement. That is naive in the extreme. Clegg and his party would be getting all the negatives of keeping the blues in power without anything in return. The LDs would take gamble of an early election.
If the Tories want to end the coalition there will be NO supply and confidence arrangement with the LDs.
The most likely outcome would be that EdM would put down a vote of confidence which all the 57 LD MPs would support.
The blues might find a way of securing DUP backing for the vote – but at a heavy price. Thereafter it is hard seeing how the Tories could support their numbers.
The LAB-LD grouping could also expect backing from George Galloway, the Green, and Plaid. Those who watched the National Theatre’s live broadcast of “This House” last night will appreciate the machinations that would be involved.
My view is that a coalition breakup instigated by the Tories would lead to an immediate general election. My 16/1 bet on a 2013 general election might just be a winner.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
I’ve just put a bet on at Ladbrokes on 2013 general election at 16/1. Hard to see how the CON & LDs can divorce without early election.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013
A 16/1 bet equates to a 5.8% chance of a 2013 general election. I think chances might be higher. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013
Coalition breakup = Early general election
The main story in the Times this morning is a report that preparatory work is going on in Downing Street to deal with the consequences of a break-up of the coalition.
The report seems to be based on wishful thinking that it would be the LDs who would want to close it down not the Tories. Fat chance. It is simply not going to happen that way. The yellows are in this for the duration and if there is a break-up then Cameron and his team will be the instigators.
@msmithsonpb To avoid an election when they’re polling in single digits
— Toby Young (@toadmeister) May 17, 2013
A key part of the story is that post divorce the LDs would allow the Tories to carry on with a supply and confidence arrangement. That is naive in the extreme. Clegg and his party would be getting all the negatives of keeping the blues in power without anything in return. The LDs would take gamble of an early election.
- If the Tories want to end the coalition there will be NO supply and confidence arrangement with the LDs.
The most likely outcome would be that EdM would put down a vote of confidence which all the 57 LD MPs would support.
The blues might find a way of securing DUP backing for the vote – but at a heavy price. Thereafter it is hard seeing how the Tories could support their numbers.
The LAB-LD grouping could also expect backing from George Galloway, the Green, and Plaid. Those who watched the National Theatre’s live broadcast of “This House” last night will appreciate the machinations that would be involved.
My view is that a coalition breakup instigated by the Tories would lead to an immediate general election. My 16/1 bet on a 2013 general election might just be a winner.
Mike Smithson
For the latest polling and political betting news
Britain is a how many party system?
Tuesday, May 14th, 2013
Harry Hayfield’s historical prespective
The main news narrative over in recent days has been “Britain is a four party system country” following the success of UKIP in the county council elections, I, however would counter that by saying “Britain is in fact a thirteen party system” and hasn’t been a four party system for well over twenty years
Parties that have scored more than 1% of the national vote at a UK general election since 1950
Great Britain only
1950: Con, Lab, Lib
1951: Con, Lab, Lib
1955: Con, Lab, Lib
1959: Con, Lab, Lib
1964: Con, Lab, Lib
1966: Con, Lab, Lib
1970: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
February 1974: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
October 1974: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
1979: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
1983: Con, Lab, Lib, SDP, SNP
1987: Con, Lab, Lib, SDP, SNP
1992: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP
1997: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Referendum Party, SNP
2001: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP
2005: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, Green
2010: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, BNP
Today, there are eleven parties at Westminster with at least one MP (Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Plaid, SNP, DUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance, Green, Respect) and taking in account the Assemblies and Parliaments across the UK, you can add the Traditional Unionist Voice, UKIP and the various Independents in Holyrood, Stormont and Westminster whch gives you a grand total of thirteen parties across the United Kingdom (and that’s just those with elected parliamentarians). Go down to the local level and you can add various shades of Independents, Ratepayers, English Democrats, Liberals, Health Campaigners, Mebynon Kernow, Social Democrats and the Scottish Socialists, giving the UK a staggering twenty political parties with elected members to chose from. And that could mean that the once uncommon sight of the three way marginal may give way to the five way marginal (as seen in history)
Election 1983: Wrexham: Lab 34.27%, Con 33.37%, Alliance 29.71%
Election 1987: Brecon and Radnor: Alliance 34.81%, Con 34.67%, Lab 29.22%
Election 1992: Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber: Lib Dem 26.04%, Lab 25.14%, SNP 24.67%, Con 22.62%
Election 1997: Shrewsbury and Atcham: Lab 37.01%, Con 33.99%, Lib Dem 25.00%
Election 2001: Moray: SNP 30.32%, Lab 25.07%, Con 23.10%, Lib Dem 15.72%
Election 2005: Watford: Lab 33.55%, Lib Dem 31.23%, Con 29.62%
Election 2010: Norwich South: Lib Dem 29.35%, Lab 28.70%, Con 22.92%, Green 14.92%
Election 2015 (based on by-elections): Cambridgeshire South: Lab 24.43%, Con 24.29%, Lib Dem 17.86%, Ind 16.26%, UKIP 14.90%
Harry Hayfield
Harry Hayfield’s historical prespective
The main news narrative over in recent days has been “Britain is a four party system country” following the success of UKIP in the county council elections, I, however would counter that by saying “Britain is in fact a thirteen party system” and hasn’t been a four party system for well over twenty years
Parties that have scored more than 1% of the national vote at a UK general election since 1950
Great Britain only
1950: Con, Lab, Lib
1951: Con, Lab, Lib
1955: Con, Lab, Lib
1959: Con, Lab, Lib
1964: Con, Lab, Lib
1966: Con, Lab, Lib
1970: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
February 1974: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
October 1974: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
1979: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP
1983: Con, Lab, Lib, SDP, SNP
1987: Con, Lab, Lib, SDP, SNP
1992: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP
1997: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Referendum Party, SNP
2001: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP
2005: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, Green
2010: Con, Lab, Lib Dem, SNP, UKIP, BNP
Today, there are eleven parties at Westminster with at least one MP (Con, Lab, Lib Dem, Plaid, SNP, DUP, SDLP, Sinn Fein, Alliance, Green, Respect) and taking in account the Assemblies and Parliaments across the UK, you can add the Traditional Unionist Voice, UKIP and the various Independents in Holyrood, Stormont and Westminster whch gives you a grand total of thirteen parties across the United Kingdom (and that’s just those with elected parliamentarians). Go down to the local level and you can add various shades of Independents, Ratepayers, English Democrats, Liberals, Health Campaigners, Mebynon Kernow, Social Democrats and the Scottish Socialists, giving the UK a staggering twenty political parties with elected members to chose from. And that could mean that the once uncommon sight of the three way marginal may give way to the five way marginal (as seen in history)
Election 1983: Wrexham: Lab 34.27%, Con 33.37%, Alliance 29.71%
Election 1987: Brecon and Radnor: Alliance 34.81%, Con 34.67%, Lab 29.22%
Election 1992: Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber: Lib Dem 26.04%, Lab 25.14%, SNP 24.67%, Con 22.62%
Election 1997: Shrewsbury and Atcham: Lab 37.01%, Con 33.99%, Lib Dem 25.00%
Election 2001: Moray: SNP 30.32%, Lab 25.07%, Con 23.10%, Lib Dem 15.72%
Election 2005: Watford: Lab 33.55%, Lib Dem 31.23%, Con 29.62%
Election 2010: Norwich South: Lib Dem 29.35%, Lab 28.70%, Con 22.92%, Green 14.92%
Election 2015 (based on by-elections): Cambridgeshire South: Lab 24.43%, Con 24.29%, Lib Dem 17.86%, Ind 16.26%, UKIP 14.90%