Archive for the 'Coalition' Category

h1

The SNP might have lost the referendum but its support reaches new high

Sunday, September 21st, 2014

Survation find that one in two Scot would gibe it their vote

Details have been published this afternoon of a Survation phone poll in Scotland carried out in the immediate aftermath of the referendum defeat. The figures are in the chart above and show shares which I believe have the SNP at a new high in any poll.

Clearly the high profile and the hugely energised electorate have given the party a huge boost.

The numbers are a timely reminder to Westminster of the strength of the party ahead of constitutional and financial discussions.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

The simple solution to the question of Scottish MPs: Do what was done in Northern Ireland in 1920

Saturday, September 20th, 2014

Look at how Northern Ireland’s numbers were changed

Reduce the number of Scottish MPs

I love the wonderfully simple solution to the Scottish MPs question by JohnO on the previous thread:-

“We have been here before. Until 1972 the former Northern Ireland Parliament at Stormont enjoyed full devo max powers. What was the messy, rough and ready, probably anomalous but characteristically ‘British’ answer to compensate the rest of the country? Simple. Just make the NI constituencies at Westminster far larger than their counterparts on the mainland.

Forget about the monstrosities of an English Parliament or the ghastly complexities of EV4ELs, simply reduce the number of Scottish MPs….

And, that’s it. Problem solved.”

For prior to the the 1920 Government of Ireland Act 105 MPs were elected for the whole of Ireland, of whom 30 represented constituencies in the six counties which we know as Northern Ireland. Along with the creation in the new state in the south an elected parliament for the six counties remaining in the UK was set up. This move was accompanied with a reduction of Northern Ireland seats at Westminster to just 12.

That continued to govern until, when, because of “the troubles” direct rule was introduced in the early 1970s. This meant that Northern Ireland was under-represented at Westminster. That was changed in 1982 when the total was increased to 17.

Simple. There is a precedent.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

It’s hard to see anyone other than Nicola Sturgeon winning the SNP leadership

Friday, September 19th, 2014

After Alex Salmond’s not unexpected departure this afternoon following the YES defeat in the referendum the bookies have installed his depity, Nicola Sturgeon, as odds on favourite. Looking down the list of possibles from the bookies it is hard to see any alternative. But who knows?

    I thought that she had good referendum campaign and managed to avoid some of the hubris that made Salmond so unappealing. She was impressive this afternoon in the immediate aftermath of defeat – not an easy time for anybody.

The party has a tough time ahead as it seeks to cash the promises on devolution made by Cameron/Miliband/Clegg towards the end of the campaign. The way the Tories are trying to adjust the offer already by linking change to the way Scottish MPs can operate is an indication that a deal is not done and dusted.

As to a bet I’m not familiar enough with the field to make any comments.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

The referendum claims its first casualty – Alex Salmond

Friday, September 19th, 2014

You could have got 3/1 from Paddy Power on this during the night.

In many ways this was the natural conclusion to his fight over the years. Salmond had his brilliant success at the Holyrood elections when the SNP achieved what no other party had ever done before – a majority in the Scottish Parliament.

It was that election that set in motion the move to hold yesterday’s vote.

He’ll be missed as a political force.



h1

After a challenging election the final surveys from Ipsos-MORI, Survation and Panelbase win the polling accuracy race

Friday, September 19th, 2014

whatanight (1)

The polling lessons of September 18th

As I have been repeatedly saying over the past few weeks the referendum posed a massive challenge for the pollsters. A big aspect, featured in Marf’s carton this morning, were what became known as the “shy Noes” – those who opposed change but were often reluctant in the emotion-charged atmosphere of the election to say so.

The other big uncertainty was the record turnout with groups of voters who’d never been to a polling booth before taking part in the election. This meant that the groups that pollsters of all types find it difficult to reach – like the young, the Ds and the Es – were going to play a big part.

    In the end the final polls from Ipsos-MORI, Survation and Panelbase won the day. Congratulations to all involved.

The winning margin of 11% was larger than any of their final shares but that pointed to a hardening up of the NO support in the final 24 hours. There was also the fact of lower turnouts in YES strongholds like Glasgow.

The YouGov survey yesterday evening of those who had responded to earlier referendum polls was mostly asking how people had voted. It found differing turnout levels between YES and NO with some late swing. The British Polling Council does not usually count what are a form of exit poll when it comes to comparing election surveys.

Thanks again to Marf.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




h1

A solid win for NO but what about that “vow” by Cameron, Clegg and Miliband?

Friday, September 19th, 2014

This front page could come to haunt the three leaders



h1

Scotland decides: the Loch Ness Monster (and Marf) enter the fray

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

refvoterturnoutNEW (1)

But does this benefit NO or YES?

Less than three hours to go and all the indications that that the turnout is very large. At this stage there’s nothing to measure it against and it’s hard making a prediction on something which there’s an active betting market.

Quite who this benefits most is also hard to say. Whether it is YES getting out the first time voters or NO bringing in the “Shy Noes” or maybe it’s a large slab of both.

    A independence referendum, as I’ve written about before, is a normal election in steroids and so this is proving to be.

High turnouts mean longer counts and there is no official exit poll. We might, however, get data on polling that has taken place during the day.

Thanks to Marf yet again for her drawing.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




h1

Possibly not good news for the Scottish separatists: the final two polls to be completed have NO with the largest leads

Thursday, September 18th, 2014

So the last poll is out. The Ipsos-MORI phone survey completed yesterday evening has a 6% lead. That compares with a 2% lead in its poll for STV published yesterday evening and based on fieldwork carried out Monday and Tuesday.

    What’s striking is that the latest Ipsos-MORI split is the same as the latest Survation phone poll split where fieldwork ended at 9pm last night

If this is not just statistical noise, as it could be, then it is positive for NO and not good news for the separatists.

Ipsos-MORI has a long tradition of seeking to have the final poll at general elections on the grounds that it wants to be able to pick up late swings.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble