Archive for the 'Campaigning' Category


Don’t you wish that this is how we should do politics in the UK?

Saturday, November 7th, 2015

Mike Smithson


Lynton Crosby could do it again next week and give the Tories outright power on a third of the vote

Thursday, October 15th, 2015

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Or will the “good guys” win this time?

Canadians go to the polls next week in an election that has echoes of the British General Election in May – the most intriguing being the involvement of Lynton Crosby.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper hopes the Australian can repeat what he did for David Cameron — magic an outright victory in an election where the Tory poll numbers have been limping along in the low thirties.

That was how the final polls looked in Britain. The Tories famously confounded the pollsters by taking 37% of the vote on May 7th but Cameron’s overall majority owed more to the Crosby’s ruthless targeting of marginal Labour and Lib Dem seats. The way it was done was gloatingly chronicled in Conservative Home.

The Canadian Tories are doing even worse than their British counterparts. There’s dire news for Harper in the latest tracker polling which has him trailing the Liberal Justin Trudeau by seven points. Labour’s sister party the NDP is in the mid 20s and could hold the balance of power.

The NDP, whose leader Tom Mulcair sports a Corbynesque beard, have been the official opposition since 2011 when they made sweeping gains from the Liberals and from the Bloc Quebecois. They have slipped back into third place – the main casualties of Harper playing the Islamaphobia card. The Tory campaign has put the migrant crisis and the case of a Muslim woman who insists on her right to wear the niqab veil at the centre of their campaigning.

According to the Guardian, Harper’s success with anti-Muslim politics dates from Crosby’s arrival. “His presence in Canada first became apparent during a debate in which Harper appealed for the votes of what he called “old-stock Canadians” – a novel phrase that struck a deliberately discordant note in the typically inclusive chorus of Canadian multiculturalism.”

It’s an example of Crosby’s “dead cat strategy”, according to Macleans. If you are losing an argument, as Harper is over the economy, you throw a dead cat on the table – an eye catching emotional issue that grabs voters attention. Everyone starts talking about the cat and forgets the main issue.

A Globe and Mail commentator suggests Harper didn’t need much prompting to exploit Islamophobia. Whether or not it was prompted by Crosby, the Islamophobia tactic could backfire. If he fails to get an overall majority

Harper could be a dead duck by the middle of next week.

He has driven together his main rivals. Relations between them have often been cool but Mulcair says removing Harper is his top priority and he would be ready to support Trudeau as Prime Minister.

For anyone who finds the use of the race card distasteful this would count as a victory for the good guys

Immigration and race never seem to be far from the Crosby mind when it comes to campaigning. His entry into British politics came in 2005 when under Michael Howard’s leadership the Tories ran posters asking “Are you thinking what we’re thinking?” followed up with : “It’s not racist to impose limits on immigration.” . The Guardian’s Nick Watt explained that Crosby was importing an approach that had worked in his native land.

Now, according to the Mail, he is warning David Cameron that the migrant issue could cost the Tories the election in 2020.

But the next big electoral test comes next May and it will be interesting to see what role Crosby plays in the London. He helped get Boris Johnson elected Mayor in 2008 by virtually gagging the flamboyant, gaffe-prone candidate.

Zac Goldsmith will be a harder sell. For all his wealth and good looks he is short on charisma. In the recent PB podcast the Telegraph’s Asa Bennett judged his Tory conference “underwhelming”.

London is a famously diverse city and Labour’s candidate Sadiq Khan is, of course, a Muslim. If Goldsmith’s campaign falters look out for the Tories to throw that dead cat on to the table.

Don Brind


The flaw in Corbyn’s plan to win the next election by signing up non-voters and the young

Wednesday, September 30th, 2015

Labour risk piling up votes where they don’t need it

Mr Corbyn’s plan has the major flaw that in the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in England Labour hold 94 of them, and 95 out of the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in England and Wales. When you extend the analysis to include Scotland, a similar pattern emerges, in the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in Great Britain Labour holds 92 of them, the SNP holds 3 and the Conservatives hold 5 of them.

Boosting turnout in these seats might replicate the mistake of May where Labour piled up votes in safe seats they already hold whilst the Conservatives boosted their votes in the marginals they hold, which will ultimately improve the advantage the Conservatives hold in vote efficiency. The following tweet sums it up.

To win in 2020 Labour needs to win the votes of people who voted Conservative and UKIP in 2015, until Mr Corbyn addresses that Labour won’t be taking power in 2020.

Thanks again to PBer Disraeli for producing the data behind this article.



Corbyn’s English challenge

Sunday, September 13th, 2015

Labour need to stop piling up votes in their safe English seats

Looking at the chart above we can see that in England Labour did best where it didn’t need to and the Tories did best where they did need to do well. In England overall there was a swing of 1.1% from the Tories to Labour but in the crucial battle ground of the fifty most marginal Tory held seats there was a swing of 0.9% FROM Labour to the Tories.

One of the reasons for this was probably down to Labour’s much hyped ground game being focussed in the wrong places. A few months ago Labour’s Jon Ashworth, MP for Leicester South, said he and his canvassing team between January and May of this year had 16,000 doorstep conversations in his constituency. Which struck me as odd. Why were Labour wasting resources in a safe seats like that when there were winnable marginals seats in the Midlands that Labour needed to gain to become the largest party/have a majority?

This was comfort canvassing by Labour, those resources should have been focussed on places like Warwickshire North and Sherwood. In those Tory held hyper-marginal seats of Warwickshire North & Sherwood the Tory majority went up from 54 and 214 respectively to 2,973 and 4,647. Across England there are other examples like this from Stockton South to Nuneaton to Waveney. This explains in part how the Tories increased their lead over Labour in seats despite Labour reducing the Tory lead in the popular vote in England.

If Labour have any hope of taking power in 2020 they need to stop piling up votes in safe seats and start winning them in Tory held marginal seats. I’m not sure Jeremy Corbyn is the man to achieve that as I expect Jeremy Corbyn will be even less appealing in the Tory held marginals than Ed Miliband was.

Many thanks to PBer Disraeli for producing the figures that this article is based on.



Policies not leadership will win this election

Sunday, April 12th, 2015


Last night saw the the emergence of a major policy announcement by both the Tories and Labour, these can be seen as the appetising hors-d’oeuvre before the main course that is the manifesto launches in the early part of this coming week.

The below graphic from some polling by Ipsos Mori in February, which shows leadership isn’t as important policies, as they note, we’ve gone from the most presidential election in 2010, to the least, which explains why the Tory attacks on Ed Miliband haven’t led to sustained Tory leads this week.

Ipsos Mori


So, it comes down to which party has the policy/policies that appeal most to the voters. The Tory plan on IHT is the interesting one, back in 2007, when Labour MPs were publicly saying that “Shortly there will be a [snap] election, in which Labour will increase its majority”

One of the things that stopped Gordon Brown from holding that election was George Osborne’s policy announcement to increase IHT threshold from £300,000 to £1 million which saw a sustained change in the polling in the Tories’ favour.

But that was then, and this is now. The Tories are perceived to be the party of the rich, will this policy reaffirm that, as the cutting of the 50p to 45p in the omnishambles budget of 2012 saw the Tory polling take a dip from which they are only now recovering from.

But finally, we’re moving onto the substantive part of an election campaign, something that will help voters decide which way they will vote and could cause one side or the other to pull away, as fewer voters are decided on how they’ll vote in May than in previous elections.



If you live in the marginals expect US style political attack ads appearing in your youtube feed

Sunday, February 8th, 2015

Above is one of the most notorious US political attack ads.

Buzzfeed are reporting that

[The] Tories Bring US-Style Political Attack Adverts To The UK In Time For The Election. Paid-for political advertising on TV and radio has always been banned in the UK. But there’s no such restriction on using YouTube, and BuzzFeed News understands the Conservatives are already spending the money.

Whilst many have doubts the impact of the internet and social media on a general election campaign, this is a further example of a well resourced Conservative Party taking on a not so well resourced Labour Party unable to compete with the Tory advantage. Given the national polling indicates there is very little  between the Tories and Labour, every advantage helps.

As Buzzfeed notes, “However, it is likely that the paid-for YouTube adverts will mainly appear in the roughly 90 marginal seats which the Tories believe are key to an election victory and where they are concentrating campaign resources.”

This may also explain, why the voters think the Tories are having a better campaign so far, YouGov earlier on this week asked the following, “Taking everything into account, how good or bad an election campaign do you think the following have had so far?” Conservatives are on net +4, Greens +3, Ukip -1, Labour -30, Lib Dems -43.

All of this could explain in part, why the betting sentiment is moving towards the Tories/against Labour over on Betfair and the spreads.



CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

Monday, April 28th, 2014

Big data giving the personal touch

This morning Tory chairman, Grant Shapps, sent me the above email with an invitation to take part in a conference call with the Prime Minister tonight. Although the text doesn’t say it specifically there’s a suggestion that I could be in dialogue with Mr. Cameron.

    On the face of it this is quite appealing and my guess is that it will get a good response rate.

This form of campaigning is an import from the 2012 White House race. It was seen first in the Romney campaign for the GOP nomination and played a key part in those early states when it was so important for him to underline his front-runner status.

There the “Tele-Town Hall Meetings”, as they were called, structure was honed so that the the issues discussed were tailored specifically to the target voter. I don’t know whether the Cameron approach will be the same or whether there’ll be a common “discussion” for all who participate.

In a low turnout election like the Euros the Tories can really enhance their position by getting their more marginal voters to turnout and to bring back on board some of the CON>UKIP switchers. This is about voter mobilisation and it could help.

I remain of the view that the Tories will do better on May 22nd than in the current online polling.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


European Elections 2009 : Summary of Results

Tuesday, April 15th, 2014

European Election Results 2009

UK 2009 Winners

Conservatives 4,193,706 votes (27.63%) winning 272 count areas and 25 MEP’s
United Kingdom Independence Party 2,495,782 votes (16.44%) winning 9 count areas and 13 MEP’s
Labour 2,375,361 votes (15.65%) winning 59 count areas and 13 MEP’s
Liberal Democrats 2,078,723 votes (13.70%) winning 11 count areas and 11 MEP’s
Green Party 1,302,705 votes (8.58%) winning 3 count areas and 2 MEP’s
British National Party 941,491 votes (6.20%) winning 0 count areas and 2 MEP’s
Scottish National Party 321,007 votes (2.11%) winning 22 count areas and 2 MEP’s
Plaid Cymru 123,816 votes (0.81%) winning 4 count areas and 1 MEP
Other Parties 1,340,174 votes (8.83%) winning 0 count areas and 0 MEP’s
Conservative lead of 1,697,924 votes (11.19%) with a majority of 164 count areas and 12 MEP’s

Over the next few weeks I will be outling the prospects for each of the main parties (Con, Lab, Lib Dem, UKIP) as well as the other parties (Plaid, SNP, BNP, Green) in the forthcoming European Elections and based on the polls on the eve of poll produce a forecast map showing not only what districts are likely to go to which parties but also the number of MEP’s elected by region (and the change on 2009).

I am therefore opening the comments section for people to ask what their local area result was in 2009. All of the results have been standardised to the districts being counted this year and all I need to know is the name of the council that you will be electing at the next set of elections in 2015 (for England), 2016 (Scotland and Wales).

Harry Hayfield