Archive for the 'By elections' Category


UKIP vote down sharply in all this week’s local by-elections

Friday, February 12th, 2016

UKIP youth

Crompton (Lab defence) on Bolton
Result: Labour 1,961 (73% +13%), UKIP 320 (12% -9%), Conservative 302 (11% -1%), Liberal Democrat 117 (4% unchanged)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,641 (61%) on a swing of 11% from UKIP to Labour

Lower Stoke (Lab defence) on Coventry
Result: Labour 1,235 (57% +10%), Conservative 344 (16% +1%), UKIP 290 (13% -11%), Green Party 165 (8% +1%), Liberal Democrat 124 (6%, no candidate in 2014)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 891 (41%) on a swing of 4.5% from Conservative to Labour

West End North (Lib Dem defence) on Eastleigh
Result: Liberal Democrat 582 (53% +13%), Conservative 315 (29% -6%),UKIP 115 (10% -5%), Labour 58 (5% -5%), Green Party 28 (3%, no candidate in 2015)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 267 (24%) on a swing of 9.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Cranford (Lab defence) on Hounslow
Result: Labour 1,264 (55% unchanged), Conservative 638 (28% +2%), Liberal Democrat 265 (11% +5%), UKIP 96 (4% -9%), Green Party 48 (2%, no candidate in 2014)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 626 (27%) on a swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative

Compiled by Harry Hayfield


CON loses 2 of the 3 local by-elections it was defending overnight

Friday, February 5th, 2016

Bottisham (Con defence) on East Cambridgeshire
Result: Conservative 421 (44% -8%), Liberal Democrat 403 (42% +10%), Labour 99 (10% -6%), UKIP 43 (4%, no candidate in 2015)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 18 (2%) on a swing of 9% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Measham South (Lab defence) on North West Leicestershire
Result: Labour 257 (43% -12%), Conservative 202 (34% -11%), UKIP 141 (24%, no candidate in 2015)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 55 (9%) on a swing of 0.5% from Labour to Conservative

Hexham West (Con defence) on Northumberland
Result: Non Party Independent 501 (37%, no candidate in 2013), Conservative 454 (33% -15%), Labour 200 (15% unchanged), Independent 125 (9%, no candidate in 2013), Green Party 89 (7%, no candidate in 2013)
Non Party Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majoruty of 47 (4%) on a notional swing of 26% from Conservative to Non Party Independent

Oswestry South (Con defence) on Shropshire
Result: Green Party 518 (48% +16%), Conservative 367 (34% -12%), Labour 95 (9%, no candidate in 2015), Liberal Democrat 91 (8% +2%)
Green GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 151 (14%) on a swing of 14% from Conservative to Green


Tonight’s local by-election line-up: 3 CON defences and a LAB one

Thursday, February 4th, 2016

Bottisham (Con defence) on East Cambridgeshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 36, Liberal Democrats 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 33)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,100, 1,002 (52%)
Liberal Democrats 678, 634 (32%)
Labour 347, 339 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated: Steven Aronson (Lib Dem), Daniel Divine (UKIP), Steven O’Dell (Lab), Alan Sharp (Con)

East Cambridgeshire is the essence of what has been happening to the Liberal Democrats since 2003 (their high water mark in local elections). At those elections, the Liberal Democrats polled 27% in the national projected vote share (tying with their performances in 1994 and 1987) and in those local elections they won 3,577 seats and controlled or had a hand in controlling 53 councils (including East Cambridgeshire where they had 18 councillors to the Conservatives 15 and the Independents 6), however just four years later and it was all reversed. Although the Liberal Democrat share in the national projected vote only fell by 3%, the Conservative share rose by 5% and that 4% swing was enough to cause the Conservatives to gain overall control in East Cambridgeshire and then the rot really started. A 3% swing from Lib Dem to Con saw the Conservative majority on the council increase to 11 and another 2% swing in 2015 saw the majority rocket up to 33 (on a swing of 5% overall since 2003). Since the general election though, the Liberal Democrats have started to recover some of their lustre but I think a 10% swing since May is asking just a little too much.

Measham South (Lab defence) on North West Leicestershire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Labour 10, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (Conservative majority of 12)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 654 (55%), Conservative 533 (45%)
Candidates duly nominated: Annette Bridges (Con), Martin Green (UKIP), Sean Sheahan (Lab)

North West Leicestershire has always been a right royal battleground. Labour had a majority of 2 in 2003, which became a Conservative majority of 16 in 2007, then a Conservative majority of 4 in 2011 and then a majority of 12 in 2015, so when you have a seat that only requires a 5% swing for the Conservatives to gain it, you can imagine just how much chomping at the bit is going on in a constituency that has been swinging away from Labour almost since it went Labour in 1997. However, there is a complication this time around and that is UKIP. They will clearly poll very well (as they do in wards they did not contest last time) but who will their presence hurt the most? If it’s the Conservatives then Labour are home and dry, if it’s Labour then that gain becomes all the more likely.

Hexham West (Con defence) on Northumberland
Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 32, Conservatives 21, Liberal Democrats 11, Independents 3 (No Overall Majority, Labour short by 2)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 848 (48%), Liberal Democrat 540 (31%), Labour 261 (15%), United Kingdom Independence Party 105 (6%)
Candidates duly nominated: Tom Gillanders (Con), Derek Kennedy (Non Party Independent), Anne Pickering (Ind), Nuala Rose (Lab), Lee Williscroft-Ferris (Green)

Oswestry South (Con defence) on Shropshire
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 48, Liberal Democrats 12, Labour 9, Independent 1, Independent Community and Health Concern / National Health Action 1 (Conservative majority of 22)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 488 (46%), Green Party 337 (32%), United Kingdom Independence Party 175 (16%), Liberal Democrat 62 (6%)
Candidates duly nominated: Carl Hopley (Lab), Duncan Kerr (Green), Christopher Schofield (Con), Amanda Woof (Lib Dem)

Both Northumberland and Shropshire have a lot in common. They are very councils with very large land areas (Shropshire has a land area of 3,487 square kilometres and Northumberland 5,013 square kilometres), both had at one point Liberal Democrats in a position of power (in 2008 the Liberal Democrats were the largest party on Northumberland and in 2005, the Liberal Democrats were the offical opposition on Shropshire) and both councils have a claim to be “a town and not much else” (with Morpeth being the county town in Northumberland and Shrewsbury being the county town in Shropshire), so with so many similarities it is amazing how divergent the two councils are nowadays, with Labour in minority control in Northumberland and the Conservatives in majority control of Shropshire and with the Liberal Democrats in oppsition to the Conservatives in Hexham West and the Greens in opposition to the Conservatives in Oswestry South. We’ve only had one Green gain since the general election in Dorset, so could we have a second tonight or could we have undoubted evidence of a Lib Dem fightback with three Lib Dems gains from three Lib Dem candidates?


Local By-Election Review : January 2016

Friday, January 29th, 2016

Local By-Election Review : January 2016
Botchery on Carlisle: Ind GAIN from Lab on a swing of 10.5% from Lab to Ind
Launceston Central on Cornwall: Lib Dem HOLD on a swing of 9% from Lib Dem to Con
Bushney North on Hertfordshire: Con HOLD on a swing of 1.5% from Lib Dem to Con
Thatto Heath on St. Helens: Lab HOLD on a swing of 8.5% from Lab to UKIP
Hamilton North and East on South Lanarkshire: SNP HOLD on a swing of 5% from Lab to SNP
Faraday on Southwark: Lab HOLD on a swing of 4.5% from Lab to Lib Dem
Newington on Thanet: Lab GAIN from UKIP on a swing of 7.5% from UKIP to Lab
Crowborough West on Wealden: Con HOLD on a swing of 4.5% from Lib Dem to Con
Parkfield and Oxbridge on Stockton-on-Tees: Lab HOLD on a swing of 1% from Con to Lab

Votes Cast in January 2016 and change in seats
Labour 4,406 (40%) winning 4 seats (unchanged)
Conservatives 2,991 (26%) winning 2 seats (unchanged)
Liberal Democrats 1,423 (12%) winning 1 seat (unchanged)
Scottish National Party 1,089 (9%) winning 1 seat (unchanged)
United Kingdom Independence Party 793 (7%) winning 0 seats (-1)
Independents 487 (4%) winning 1 seat (+1)
Green Party 368 (3%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Other Parties 50 (0%) winning 0 seats (unchanged)
Labour lead of 1,415 (14%)


Local By-Election Preview : January 28th 2016

Thursday, January 28th, 2016

Parkfield and Oxbridge (Lab defence) on Stockton-on Tees
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 32, Conservatives 13, Independents 10, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 8)
Result of ward at last election : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,608, 1,501 (46%)
Conservative 950, 887 (27%)
Independent 419 (12%)
Green Party 285 (8%)
Liberal Democrats 192, 179 (6%)
Libertarian 58 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: Peter Braney (UKIP), Drew Durning (Lib Dem), Allan Mitchell (Lab), Stephen Richardson (Con)

Stockton on Tees really has had a quite turbulent electoral history. It’s always had two constituencies (Stockton North and Stockton South) but those two constituencies have had quite different histories with North being consistently Labour and South following the trend of being Alliance, then Conservative, Labour and now back with the Conservatives, but what’s interesting to note is how the whole borough has voted at Westminster. In 1983 the Conservatives had a lead of less than 1,800 votes (1.69%) and despite the Conservatives gaining Stockton South from the Alliance Labour overtook the Conservatives by nearly 7,000 votes in 1987 and only fractionally increased that lead in 1992. Then came the Labour landslide in 1997 and Labour stormed to victory in Stockton South (on a 16% swing) and notched up a 34% lead over the Conservatives in the borough, but as the shine started to come off Labour, it was places that Stockton that the shine came off the fastest. In 2001, the majority was down to 30%, in 2005 it was down again to 23% and in 2010 (when Stockton South voted Conservative for the first time since 1992) the Labour majority slumped to just 7% and when you hear that in 2015, although Labour had a lead of 4% in the borough, the fact there had been another 1.5% swing to the Conservatives gives you an idea of just how bad things are for Labour at the parliamentary level (a 15% swing from Lab to Con over 18 years) and with an average swing of 1.2% from Lab to Con at all the by-elections since the general election (and a 2.5% swing from Lab to Con since Corbyn’s election compared to last time) you do begin to wonder whether any seat that Labour has to defend can be truly called “safe”


Six council by-elections tonight – 2 CON, 2 LAB, SNP & UKIP defences)

Thursday, January 21st, 2016

Bushey North (Con defence) on Hertfordshire
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 46, Liberal Democrats 16, Labour 15 (Conservative majority of 15)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservative 995 (44%), United Kingdom Independence Party 524 (23%), Labour 437 (19%), Liberal Democrats 321 (14%)
Candidates duly nominated: David Hey (UKIP), Shailain Shah (Lib Dem), Jane West (Con), Seamus Williams (Lab)

“In Hertford, Hereford and Hampshire, hurricanes hardly ever happen!” to quote the phrase that Professor Higgins used to teach Miss. Doolittle “the Queen’s English”. Well in 2013, a hurricane certainly did happen, Hurricane Nigel, as UKIP (who in 2009 had only fielded six candidates, but scored an impressive 13% of the vote in those wards) fielded 65 candidates and polled 18% across the whole county (polling 21% in those wards) however despite that they didn’t win any seats on the council. Since then however, UKIP have been plunging, losing 32% of their support since the general election on the last election in that ward and losing six of their eight defences which poses the interesting question “If Hurricane Nigel has now spent itself, where will those UKIP votes in 2013 go?” to which I can answer “Well, with the same parties fielding candidates as did in 2013, we will know exactly where those UKIP votes are going!”

Thatto Heath (Lab defence) on St. Helens
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 42, Conservatives 3, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 36)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 1,857 (75%), Green 187 (8%), Conservative 178 (7%), British National Party 136 (6%), Liberal Democrats 124 (5%)
Candidates duly nominated: Nova Charlton (Lab), Damien Clarke (Green), Lisa Mackarell (Con), Alastair Sutcliffe (UKIP)

Local government has a lot of interesting rules and regulations about itself. For instance, you can only stand for a council if you work in that council area or live within three miles of it, but a lesser known rule is the “six month rule” which states that if a councillor dies or resigns six months before the next set of elections where that councillor would have been a candidate, then the election to replace that councillor is tagged on to those elections (which sounds like a perfectly reasonable statement of affairs). However, UKIP in St. Helens were not of that opinion and offered the opinion “The previous councillor died in September last year, therefore there is plenty to time to hold a by-election and then hold the elections in May as per usual” and needless to say that caused a bit of consternation, not least from the leader of the council who dubbed the contest the by-election “that no one would have wished for” and as a result I think it is fair to say that UKIP may well have shot themselves in the foot to such a large degree that any hope they had of winning the seat has now gone completely out of the window.

Hamilton North and East (SNP defence) on South Lanarkshire
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 33, Scottish National Party 28, Conservatives 3, Independents 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,037, 794 (43%)
Scottish National Party 776, 945 (41%)
Conservatives 430 (10%)
Green Party 133 (3%)
Independents 141 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: Stephanie Callaghan (SNP), Lyndsay Clelland (Lab), Steven Hannigan (Green), James Mackay (Con), Norman Rae (Lib Dem)

If England was hit by Hurricane Nigel in 2013, then Hurricane Nicola was a full blown Category Five storm that wreaked devastation on a scale not seen since the 1950’s in Scotland (when the Conservatives won 30 seats in Scotland on the same vote share that the SNP got in 2015) and unlike Hurricane Nigel, the SNP storm doesn’t seem to be blowing itself out. In the local by-elections since the general election, the SNP vote has doubled compared to last time (2012) and the SNP have won 22 seats (the majority of them being HOLDS) and I simply cannot see any evidence of that SNP surge coming to a grinding halt anytime soon which means that the only question over this ward is “How big will the SNP swing be?”. Given that in those by-elections since the general election the SNP have a lead of 23% over Labour, that would be a swing of 12.5% from Lab to SNP in this ward so anything bigger than that and Hurricane Nicola is still going strong.

Faraday (Lab defence) on Southwark
Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 48, Liberal Democrats 13, Conservatives 2 (Labour majority of 35)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,590, 1,567, 1,508 (62%)
Green Party 302, 262, 251 (12%)
Conservatives 245, 216, 210 (10%)
All People’s Party 171, 163, 124 (7%)
Liberal Democrats 163, 139, 106 (6%)
Trade Unionists and Socialists 113 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: David Furze (Con), Nick Hooper (Green), Samantha Jury-Dada (Lab), Alhaji Kanumansa (All People’s Party), Lauren Pemberton-Nelson (Lib Dem), Dean Porter (Ind), Toby Prescott (UKIP)

There haven’t been that many by-elections in London since the general election (which considering that the councils were last elected a year before the general election isn’t perhaps surprising) but what has been surprising is the recovery of the Liberal Democrats in those by-elections. Overall, since the general election the Liberal Democrats are polling 23% of the vote in London (compared to 22% for the Conservatives) and have also managed to pick up a gain in Hampton Wick on Richmond. However the best the Lib Dems can hope for in Southwark (and the rest of central London) are several good second places but a good second place (as the Lib Dems know from experience) can eventually lead to a win (or even more in multi member wards).

Newington (UKIP defence) on Thanet
Result of council at last election (2015): United Kingdom Independence Party 33, Conservatives 18, Labour 4, Independent 1 (United Kingdom Independence Party majority of 10)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
United Kingdom Independence Party 884, 845 (44%)
Labour 728, 713 (36%)
Conservatives 390, 363 (20%)
Candidates duly nominated: Grahame Birchall (Ind), Karen Constantine (Lab), Adam Dark (Con), Ian Driver (Green), Alan Hodder (Ind), Duncan Smithson (UKIP), Jordan Williams (Lib Dem)

There have been plenty of UKIP defences over the last three years and overall UKIP have definitely come out worse. In 2014 they managed to lose five of their eight defences and in 2015 they made seven net losses, however this by-election is UKIP’s biggest test to date (and might explain why Nigel Farage has visited the ward seven times during the campaign) and the reason why? Thanet is the first council ever to elect a majority UKIP administration. Thanet was always going to the main focus for UKIP ever since Nigel Farage announced that he was going to be the candidate in Thanet South and although he lost by some two thousand votes in the constituency, the knock on effect was UKIP polling 33% of the vote across the district (up almost 30% on 2011 elections) and winning 33 seats with both the Conservatives (30% -12% on 2011, 18 seats) and Labour (22% -13% on 2011, 4 seats) coming off the worst because of it. Therefore if UKIP cannot hold a seat here, then the question needs to be asked “Where can UKIP win and hold a seat?”

Crowborough East (Con defence) on Wealden
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 50, Independents 5 (Conservative majority of 45)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,668, 1,526 (65%)
Liberal Democrats 885 (35%)
Candidates duly nominated: Jane Clark (Lib Dem), Phillip Lunn (Con), Linda Scotson (Lab)

Which leaves poor old Wealden. Compared to the SNP domination of Scotland and UKIP question marks over it’s electoral survival in some parts of the country, a three way battle between the mainstream parties could be described as “boring” to which I would say “That might be your view but the electors of Hellingley would beg to differ” as last October the Liberal Democrats gained the ward from the Conservatives on a swing of 32% so just because a ward looks like a foregone conclusion, don’t discount it from making the unbelievable happen

Compiled by Harry Hayfield


Local By-Election Preview : January 14th 2016

Thursday, January 14th, 2016

Launceston Central (Ind defence, elected as Lib Dem) on Cornwall
Result of council at last election (2013): Independent 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 6, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebynon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Liberal Democrat 551 (71%), Conservative 134 (17%), Labour 93 (12%)
Candidates duly nominated: John Allman (Christian People’s Alliance), Val Bugden-Cawsey (Con), Roger Creagh-Osborne (Green), Gemma Massey (Lib Dem)

Result of ward at past elections (2009)*
2009: Liberal Democrat 599 (64%), Conservative 341 (36%)
Ward created at 2009 elections
* Past elections where the councillor who has resigned / died fought

Cornwall first came to national prominence in 1993 when as part of the disaster that was the county council elections for the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats won Cornwall (not only by polling 42% of the vote on a swing of 8% to them since the 1989 county elections, but also by winning an overall majority on the council) prompting the discussion that come the next general election the Liberal Democrats had a very good chance of sweeping Cornwall and if it had not been for Candy Atherton winning Falmouth for Labour, that would have been the case. At that general election, the Conservative started to recover from their 1993 losses but in Cornwall the reverse happened as their vote share fell again (to just 15%) and concede another 2.5% swing to the Liberal Democrats. When the Conservative recovery started (in 2001) boy, did they make up for lost time notching up a very impressive 6.5% swing to them back from the Liberal Democrats, however all that did was enable them to make two net gains and although the Liberal Democrats did lose overall control they were still the largest party on the council. And then came the breakthrough for the Liberal Democrats in 2005, they gained Falmouth from Labour, held their other four seats and regained overall control of the county and for the first time in almost a century, Cornwall was wholly Liberal. By now, however there were discussions about whether Cornwall, an area of the country that some people thought should have access to devolution (with a very keen supporter in the form of Lisa Simpson who declared during Channel 4’s Alternative Christmas Message ” “) should become a unitary authority. The discussions came to a successful conclusion and in 2009 Cornwall County Council became the largest unitary authority in the county with a staggering 123 members (by comparison Wiltshire which also became unitary at the same elections elected 98 members and Birmingham has 118 members) and in those first elections the Conservatives reigned supreme winning 50 seats on the new council and becoming the largest grouping with 34% of the vote overturning twenty five years of Liberal Democrat rule and influence and although in 2013 the Conservatives lost nineteen seats overall, because not all of those losses were Liberal Democrat gains, the council remained hung. Since then of course we have had the Liberal Democrats wiped out at Westminster not only in Cornwall but throughout the South West and although this ward voted Lib Dem in 2013 by 71% it is clear that the sitting councillor (who first resigned the Lib Dem whip on the council after allegations against him surfaced and then resigned in disgust from the council over the way the allegations against him were treated) had a very strong personal vote and as we all know, personal votes are up for grabs when the person who got them does not stand again.


Local By-Election Review 2015 : Part One

Wednesday, December 30th, 2015

Running before the Storm : Before the General Election (24 local by-elections)

It was fairly obvious as soon as Big Ben chimed midnight ushering in the arrival of 2015 that everyone’s mind would instantly focus on the general election (indeed some of the parties started campaigning almost immediately the Christmas decorations came down) but local by-elections are no respecter of national campaigns and within days of those decorations coming down the local by-election circus started up again in Bolsover where Labour were seeking to defend Bolsover North West. And whilst they did, they got an awful scare from UKIP who polled 40% of the vote and came within 21 of creating the first UKIP gain of 2015 but there in settled a pattern of UKIP polling very well in heartland areas, a pattern that continued in Crowbrough West on Wealden when from a standing start they polled 41% of the vote against a solitary Conservative. But they were not the only ones making ground ahead of the election, the SNP were also making their presence felt. Kirkcaldy East (in the heart of the constituency soon to be vacated by Gordon Brown) the SNP held the seat on a 13% swing, Armadale and Blackridge on West Lothian was an SNP hold in March on a 5% swing to the SNP, Buckie in Moray SNP gain from Independent on a 17% swing to the SNP from the Independents and perhaps the biggest kick for Scottish Labour in Glenrothes West a 9% swing to the SNP from Labour in a seat they hadn’t win in a by-election just a few months earlier. Whilst this was all going on north of border, in the rest of the country it was pretty much steady as you go. Labour gained a seat from UKIP on Harlow, the Conservatives did the same on Essex, and even the Liberal Democrats got into the mix by gaining Whyteleafe on Tandridge from their coalition partners. As the general election appeared on the horizon Labour won the last local by-election before the general election holding their seat of Walney South on Cumbria on a 3.5% swing from Conservative to Labour and went into the election knowing that that same swing nationwide would enable Ed Milliband to claim that he had the mandate to govern.

% Votes Cast: Labour 33%, Conservative 22%, SNP 18%, United Kingdom Independence Party 8%, Independents 6%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Green Party 4%, Plaid Cymru 2%, Other Parties 3%
Seats Won and change on last time: Labour 9 (unchanged), Conservative 8 (+1), SNP 4 (+2), United Kingdom Independence Party 0 (-2), Independents 2 (unchanged), Liberal Democrats 1 (+1), Green Party 0 (unchanged), Plaid Cymru 0 (-1), Other Parties 0 (-1)

Mark Hall on Harlow: Labour GAIN from UKIP
Bocking on Essex: Conservative GAIN from UKIP
Buckie on Moray: Scottish National Party GAIN from Independent
Glenrothes West and Kinglassie on Fife : Scottish National Party GAIN from Labour
Llantwit Major on the Vale of Glamorgan : Conservative GAIN from Llantwit First Independents
Beinn na Foghla agus Uibhist a Tuath ar Eilean Siar / Benbecula and North Uist on the Western Isles: Independent GAIN from Labour
Cadnant on Gwynedd: Labour GAIN from Plaid Cymru
Whyteleafe on Tandridge: Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative

Compiled by Harry Hayfield