Archive for the 'By elections' Category


Just one local by-election tonight – what looks like an interesting LAB defence in Barnsley against UKIP

Thursday, August 27th, 2015

Dearne North on Barnsley (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 55, Conservatives 4, Independents 4 (Labour majority of 47)
Result of ward at last election (2014): Labour 1,179 (58%), United Kingdom Independence Party 752 (37%), Conservatives 103 (5%)
Candidates duly nominated: Tony Devoy (Yorkshire First), Karen Fletcher (Trade Unionist and Socialist), Annette Gollick (Labour), Jim Johnson (UKIP), Lee Ogden (Con)

Whilst it is true to say that Labour have Barnsley sewn up, it is not fair to say that no one can challenge them. Barnsley has a total of 63 councillors, therefore whilst getting 32 councillors gets you a majority, the real benchmark is 42 councillors (two thirds of the total membership) and between 1990 and 2003 that is precisely what Labour clocked up, but then from 2003 to 2010 Labour experienced a problem. And what was the problem? Well, it wasn’t the Liberal Democrats and it wasn’t the Conservatives, it was the local independents and in 2008 they managed to win 24 seats on the council and caused Labour to come within one seat of losing Barnsley to No Overall Control, but then came the coalition, then came Labour’s recovery in local government and then Barnsley became a Labour heartland again.

So if Labour were to suffer a rebellion against the perceived one party state on the council, who might benefit? Well, the obvious answer would be UKIP, as in the four constituencies that make up Barnsley UKIP polled 23% of the vote (up 18% on the 2010 general election) clocking a very impressive 24% in the Wentworth and Dearne constituency but as we have seen UKIP have their own problems, namely being unable to hold on to their vote. So what about Yorkshire First? They fielded 14 candidates in the general election polling 1.04% in those constituencies (the best performance being Hemsworth where they polled 2.4% of the vote), sadly this meant that they lost every deposit in those seats and in Barnsley only managed to poll 647 votes in Barnsley East and despite all of their bluster the Trade Unionists and Socialists have yet to win a council seat anywhere, so with no Lib Dem candidate to demonstrate the fightback against Labour, Labour seem almost certain to win this seat with an increased vote and majority.

Harry Hayfield


UKIP continues its run of losses in the latest round of council by-elections

Friday, August 21st, 2015

Farage’s party has lost all but one defence since May 7th

Witney North on West Oxfordshire (Independent, elected as Conservative, defence)
Result: Conservatives 264 (34% -9%), Liberal Democrats 201 (26% +14%), Green Party 136 (17% -11%), Labour 114 (15% -2%), United Kingdom Independence Party 64 (8%, no candidate in 2012)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 63 (8%) on a swing of 11.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Camborne, Pandarves on Cornwall (UKIP defence)
Result: Conservatives 325 (30% unchanged), Liberal Democrats 311 (29%, no candidate in 2013), Labour 220 (20% +1%), United Kingdom Independence Party 89 (8% -24%), Mebynon Kernow 85 (8% -12%), Green Party 31 (3%, no candidate in 2013), Independent 13 (1%, no candidate in 2013)
Conservative GAIN from United Kingdom Independence Party with a majority of 14 (1%) on a swing of 12% from UKIP to Conservative

Shotton and South Hetton on Durham (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 595 (53% +10%), The North Eastern Party 214 (19%, no candidate in 2013), United Kingdom Independence Party 131 (12%, no candidate in 2013), Liberal Democrats 107 (9%, no candidate in 2013), Conservatives 67 (6%, no candidate in 2013), Green Party 19 (2%, no candidate in 2013)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 381 (34%)

Results compiled by Harry Hayfield


Three local by-elections tonight – won last time by UKIP, LAB & CON

Thursday, August 20th, 2015

Harry Hayfield’s preview

Camborne, Pendarves on Cornwall (UKIP defence)
Result of council at last election (2013): Independents 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 8, United Kingdom Independence Party 6, Mebyon Kernow 4, Green Party 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25)
Result of ward at last election (2013): UKIP 340 (32%), Conservative 319 (30%), Mebyon Kernow 211 (20%), Labour 200 (19%)
Candidates duly nominated: Nathan Billings (Lib Dem), Peter Channon (Ind), Val Dalley (Lab), Deborah Fox (Mebynon Kernow), John Herd (Con), Jacqueline Merrick (Green), Michael Pascoe (UKIP)

Cornwall’s been quite the hive of activity in terms of local by-elections since 2013. There have been five in the last two and a bit years and in those by-elections it has been honour even between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats (Con 3, Lib Dem 2) in seats but in terms of votes cast the party taking the hit is clearly UKIP as their vote is down 8% on the elections in 2013. An example of this could be seen in Mabe in July last year where UKIP lost the seat to the Conservatives and ended up in third. As for the Conservative they had a very close squeak as the majority over the Lib Dems was just a single vote, so could this ward (in the heart of the old Falmouth and Camborne constituency) also be a Con / Lib Dem battleground. Well, possibly, it all depends on Mebynon Kernow (the Cornish nationalists). Whilst not having the same degree of an election triumph as the SNP in Scotland, their vote has remained remarkably static compared to the elections in 2013 and a stable nationalist vote is just as tricky to assess as a surging nationalist vote. Will their supporters be tempted to swich to a party they feel can defeat the incumbent (as they did in Illogan) or will they remain loyal and influence the result?

Shotton and South Hetton on Durham (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 94, Independents 9, Liberal Democrats 9, Derwentside Independents 8, Conservatives 4, Spennymoor Independents 1, Wear Valley Independents 1 (Labour majority of 62)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 893, 871 (60%)
Independent 686 (23%)
FAIR 493 (17%)
Candidates duly nominated: Michael Anderson (Lib Dem), Beaty Bainbridge (Con), Ted Hall (North East Party), Lee-James Harris (UKIP), Alan Liversidge (Lab), Martie Warin (Lib Dem)

For people in support of proportional representation, Durham is a classic example. Labour only polled 52% of the vote in the local elections and yet won 75% of the seats. This is in comparison to the 12% of the vote that went to the Independents and yet only won 7% of the seats. But for those bemoaning the first past the post electoral system, there is an answer and that answer is UKIP. Since their local election surge in 2013, UKIP have proved that in actual and virtual one party states, UKIP poll exceptionally well and by association can turn rock solid areas into a marginal at the blink of an election.

Witney North on West Oxfordshire (Ind defence, elected as Con)
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 40, Labour 4, Liberal Democrats 4, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 31)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 450 (44%), Green Party 286 (28%), Labour 179 (17%), Liberal Democrats 120 (12%)
Candidates duly nominated: Bridgette Hickman (Green), Trevor License (Lab), Carol Reynolds (Con), James Robertshaw (UKIP), Diane West (Lib Dem)

From 2003 until 2011, there was only one direction of travel in West Oxfordshire and that direction was Conservative. In those eight years the Conservatives gained 15 seats and managed to wipe out the Independents (who prior to 2003 had actually run the council) as well as make two gains from the Liberal Democrats and one from Labour. Since then the Conservatives have reversed course but it has not been the Independents making the gains but Labour to such an extent that in 2014 they became the official opposition on the council. However, with both main opposition parties tied on four seats each, it could be argued that the Greens (who polled very well here in 2012) could prove that they are not the only alternative opposition.


Unusually for a Tusday we have a local by-election

Tuesday, August 18th, 2015

August 18th 2015
West Mainland on Orkney (Non Party Independent defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 11, Non Party Independents 10 (Independent majority of 22)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Non Party Independents 322, 33, 238, 427, 287 (71%)
Independents 74, 73, 249, 132 (29%)
Candidates duly nominated: Barbara Foulkes (Ind), Fiona Grahame (Green), Rachel King (Orkney Manifesto)

Elections to Orkney Island council can be, well how can I put it politely, a bit dull. Since Orkney gained unitary authority status in 1995 (and before that when it was an island council) the Independents would win all the seats. There was a little excitement in 2012 when the SNP and UKIP fielded a candidate (polling 251 votes and 11 votes respectively) but the Independents still ruled the roost. So the appearance of a Green candidate and a candidate supporting greater rights for Orkney might make these election a little more interesting (and hopefully not quite as one sided as the result in 2012)

Harry Hayfield


Tonight’s by-elections see 2 contests each in Scotland, Wales and England

Thursday, August 13th, 2015

Harry Hayfield’s preview

Crosskeys on Caerphilly (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independent 3 (Labour majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 543 (55%), Independent 281 (28%), Plaid Cymru 126 (13%), Conservative 39 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Chris Cook (Plaid), Julian Simmonds (Lab), Joe Smyth (UKIP)

The natural assumption of most people to Caerphilly would be “Yawn, Labour hold, next council please!” but to disregard Caerphilly would be most unkind as this council has actually been very surprising since it’s creation in 1995. Admittedly those first elections were as predictable as ever. Labour 56 councillors out of 68 with a 63% vote share but then things “turned on a dime” in 1999. Not only did Plaid Cymru manage to win Islwyn in the Assembly elections but as the local elections were held on the same day, Plaid did what many thought to be impossible. They won control of their first council in the South Wales valleys polling 45% of the vote and winning 39 councillors. This shocked Labour so much that one of the first actions of the 1999 – 2003 Assembly was a rule that local elections and Assembly elections would never be held on the same day ever again. And so having regained Islwyn in 2003, Labour regained Caerphilly in 2004 and vowed never to mention 1999 again. However, the electors of Caerphilly didn’t get the memo as in 2008 Labour lost control again and although they were the largest party Plaid sprang at the chance and combining their 32 councillors with the nine Independents elected Labour were knocked out of power for the second time in fifteen years. Of course normal service was resumed in 2012 but never count out Plaid from springing a suprise in Caerphilly.

Glasbury on Powys (Con defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Independent 47, Conservatives 10, Liberal Democrats 9, Labour 6 (Independent majority of 22)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Conservative 502 (51%), Independent 299 (30%), Non Party Independent 180 (18%)
Candidates duly nominated: Louise Davies (Green), James Evans (Con), James Gibson-Watts (Lib Dem), David Hood (Ind)

If Caerphilly was boring to the point of yawning, then Powys would send you to sleep! In the last elections as a county council in 1993, a grand total of 63% of the council were elected before a single vote had been cast. The reason for this? Most were elected unopposed or had multiple Independent candidates. Even at the last elections in 2012 of the 72 councillors on Powys, 22 were elected unopposed. Even Glasbury was elected unopposed in 2004 and 2008 so the fact that it was a Conservative gain from Independent with a majority vote means that the Conservatives must be fairly confident of holding on here following the councillor becoming the new MP for Brecon and Radnor, but with nominations now closed could the Conservatives have fallen into a trap of their own making? Now we have a Green candidate (for the first time ever) and a Liberal Democrat candidate (no doubt seeking revenge for the loss of Brecon and Radnor) and as we know in Ceredigion when in 2008, the Liberal Democrats gained Tirmynach from Plaid Cymru (knocking out the Plaid Cymru councillor nominated as the Parliamentary candidate for the 2010 election) when Lib Dems have a mission, they usually complete it.

Denney and Banknock on Falkirk (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 14, SNP 13, Independents 3, Conservatives 2 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Scottish National Party 1,502, 571(39%)
Labour 1,189, 443 (30%)
Independents 411, 622, 387 (27%)
Conservatives 196 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Andrew Bell (Lab), Brian Capaloff (Green), Paul Garner (SNP), David Grant (Con)

Wishaw on North Lanarkshire (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 41, SNP 26, Independents 2, Cumbernauld Independents 1 (Labour majority of 12)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 932 E, 482, 1,590 (58%)
Scottish National Party 674, 1,118 (34%)
Conservatives 412 (8%)
Candidates duly nominated: Marjory Borthwick (Con), Maria Feeney (SSP), Peter McDade (Lab), Gerard Neary (Lib Dem), Neil Wilson (UKIP), Rosa Zambonini (SNP)

There is only one way to describe the SNP at the moment and that is a juggernaut. They are pushing Labour aside with such force that I am wondering if, even with the AMS system in Scotland, the SNP perhaps in collaboration with the Greens could reach that holy grail of 86 seats in the Scottish Parliament (67% of all the seats in the Parliament) and there is a track record for this suggestion. In 1999, the SNP polled 672,757 constituency votes and 638,644 regional votes (94.9% regional rentention). In 2003 that figure fell to 87.6%, it went back to 95.4% in 2007 and in 2011 it was 97.1%. This a rate of retention that other parties would sell their mothers to achieve, so with suggestions that the SNP could poll as much as 62% of the constituency vote (1,233,318 assuming a 2011 style turnout) if they were to achieve the dream of a 100% transfer to the regional list then 86 seats along with the Greens is not just possible, it’s very likely and then any request for a second independence referendum could not be ignored by David Cameron.

Pinhoe on Exeter (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 10, Liberal Democrats 1 (Labour majority of 18)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 1,022 (48%), Conservatives 742 (35%), United Kingdom Independence Party 240 (11%), Liberal Democrats 69 (3%), Green Party 68 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: David Harvey (Lab), John Moreman (Green), Geoffrey Payne (Lib Dem), Alison Sheridan (UKIP), David Smith (Ind), Cynthia Thompson (Con)

At the election in the South West, there was a 0.71% swing from Labour to Conservative. That swing, if applied uniformly across the South West, would not have seen any changes for Labour but would have made Plymouth, Moor View highly vulnerable (Con GAIN) and Exeter enter into the “too close to call” class. So the fact that Ben Bradshaw (part of the Labour intake in 1997) not only managed to hold Exeter but saw his majority increase to 7,183 from 2,721 on a 4% swing from Con to Lab, suggests that the Labour Party in Exeter were clearly doing something very right thus making the chances of either the Conservatives or UKIP gaining this seat very small.

Nuneaton, Whitestone on Warwickshire (Con defence)
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 26, Labour 22, Liberal Democrats 9, Green 2, Independent 1, Ratepayers 1, Stratford Independents 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 6)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Conservatives 1,173 (53%), Labour 697 (31%), Green Party 348 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated: Andrew Chrichton (Lab), Mick Ludford (Green), Jeff Morgan (Con), Alwyn Waine (UKIP)

The Whitestone area of Nuneaton is by far the the strongest of the Conservative wards in the district at the county level. Across Nuneaton as a whole in 2005, Labour had a vote lead of just 26 votes (Lab 4, Con 3) which was completely overturned in 2009 into a Conservative lead of 19% (with one net Con gain) thanks in part to the BNP polling 13% and the Greens 13% but in 2013 although Labour once again polled the majority of votes, they only had a 443 vote lead (with the BNP collapsing to just 2% but the Greens increasing to 19% and picking up Weddington on a 27% swing from Con) suggesting that it could well be the Greens who have the ability to spring a suprise on the Conservatives.


Big swings to the SNP in the latest local by-elections: Full results

Friday, August 7th, 2015

Anderston and City (SNP defence), Calton (SNP defence), Craigton (SNP defence) and Langside (Green defence) on City of Glasgow
Anderston and City
Result: SNP 1,441 (48% +18%), Labour 857 (29% -21%), Green 414 (14% +4%), Conservatives 164 (5% unchanged), Liberal Democrats 66 (2% unchanged), UKIP 43 (1%, no candidate in 2012), Libertarian 12 (0%, no candidate in 2012)
SNP HOLD on the sixth count with a majority of 584 (19%) on a swing of 19.5% from Labour to SNP

Result: SNP 1,507 (55% +25%), Labour 814 (30% -25%), Conservative 129 (5% +2%), UKIP 103 (4%, no candidate in 2012), Green 99 (4% +1%), Independent 47 (2% +1%), Liberal Democrats 18 (1% unchanged)
SNP HOLD on the first count with a majority of 693 (25%) on a swing of 25% from Labour to SNP

Result: SNP 2,674 (54% +23%), Labour 1,643 (33% -20%), Conservative 300 (6% +2%), Green 136 (3% +1%), UKIP 95 (2% +1%), Liberal Democrats 87 (2% +1%)
SNP HOLD on the first count with a majority of 1,031 (21%) on a swing of 21.5% from Labour to SNP

Result: SNP 2,134 (50% +12%), Labour 932 (22% -14%), Green 579 (14% +5%), Conservative 379 (9% +2%), Liberal Democrats 125 (3% -4%), UKIP 65 (2%, no candidate in 2012)
SNP GAIN from Green on the second count with a majority of 1,202 (28%) on a swing of 3.5% from Green to SNP (13% from Labour to SNP)

Total votes in by-election
SNP 7,756 (52% +19%), Labour 4,246 (28% -20%), Green Party 1,228 (8% +2%), Conservatives 972 (7% +2%), UKIP 306 (2%), Liberal Democrats 296 (2% -1%), Independent 47 (0%), Other Parties 74 (0%)
19.5% swing from Labour to SNP

Hamilton South on South Lanarkshire (SNP defence)
Result: SNP 1,441 (48% +15%), Labour 857 (29% -22%), Green 414 (14%, no candidate in 2012), Conservative 164 (5% -4%), Liberal Democrats 66 (2%, no candidate in 2012), UKIP 43 (1%, no candidate in 2012)
SNP hold on the sixth count with a majority of 584 (19%) on a swing of 18.5% from Labour to SNP

Harry Hayfield


Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview : August 6th 2015

Thursday, August 6th, 2015

Anderston and City (SNP defence), Calton (SNP defence), Craigton (SNP defence) and Langside (Green defence) on City of Glasgow
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 44, Scottish National Party 27, Green 5, Liberal Democrats 1, Conservatives 1, Glasgow First 1 (Labour majority of 9)

Anderston and City
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,113, 1,561 (50%)
SNP 516, 1,057 (30%)
Green 558 (10%)
Conservative 249 (5%)
Liberal Democrats 89 (2%)
Solidarity 89 (2%)
Pirate Party 46 (1%)
Glasgow First 20 (0%)
Brittanica 17 (0%)
Candidates duly nominated: Eva Bolander (SNP), Stevie Creighton (Libertarian), Katie Ford (Lab), Ary Jaff (Con), Janice MacKay (UKIP), Gary McLelland (Lib Dem), Christy Mearns (Green)

Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 1,595, 892 (55%)
SNP 672, 695 (30%)
Green 135 (3%)
Conservatives 120 (3%)
Glasgow First 131 (3%)
Scottish Unionists 109 (2%)
Independents 41 (1%)
Liberal Democrats 43 (1%)
Scottish Socialists 43 (1%)
Non Party Independent 71 (1%)
Brittanica 9 (0%)
Candidates duly nominated: Malachy Clarke (Green), Greg Hepburn (SNP), Thomas Kerr (Con), Karen King (UKIP), Tommy Ramsay (Non Party Independent), Thomas Rannachan (Lab), Chris Young (Lib Dem)

Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 2,102, 2,279 (53%)
SNP 1,876 , 700 (31%)
Solidarity 472 (6%)
Conservatives 292 (4%)
Glasgow First 147 (2%)
Green 169 (2%)
Liberal Democrats 76 (1%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 86 (1%)
Candidates duly nominated: Phillip Charles (Con), Isabel Nelson (Lib Dem), Katie Noble (Green), Kevin O’Donnell (Lab), Arthur Thackeray (UKIP), Alex Wilson (SNP)

Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
SNP 652, 1,930 (38%)
Labour 2,441 (36%)
Green 618 (9%)
Conservatives 493 (7%)
Liberal Democrats 498 (7%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist 162 (2%)
Glasgow First 70 (1%)
Candiadates duly nominated: Eileen Dinning (Lab), Ian Leech (TUSC), Will Milinship (Lib Dem), Cailean Mongan (UKIP), Robert Pollock (Green), Anna Richardson (SNP), Kyle Thornton (Con)

Total votes cast in wards being elected
Labour 48%, SNP 33%, Green 6%, Con 5%, Lib Dem 3%, Glasgow First 2%, Solidarity 2%, Trade Unionist and Socialist 1%, Others 2%

Today could be described as a mini local election in Glasgow and as a result you can bet your bottom dollar that the Glasgow SNP delegation will be stomping the ground like nobody’s business (and with very good reason indeed). At the 1983 general election (the last time that Labour did not win all the seats in Glasgow) the SNP only managed to poll 8% of the vote, that increased to 10% in 1987, 20% in 1992, 19% in 1997, 17% in 2001, 15% in 2005 and 17% in 2010 but that belied an incredible transformation at both the Holyrood level and local level. At the 1999 Holyrood elections the SNP polled 28% at the constituency level and 26% at the regional level. 2003 was of course a disappointment for the SNP (19% constituency, 17% regional) but was just a blip as in 2007 the constituency vote increased to 30%, the regional vote to 27% and for the first time at a national election the SNP won a constituency in Glasgow (Govan) and in 2011, the SNP polled a majority in Glasgow for the first time ever (45% in the constituency vote compared to Labour’s 44%) and 40% in the regional vote comapred to Labour’s 35%. So therefore it should have come as no suprise when Glasgow voted YES in the referendum on independence with a majority of 25,432 votes (7%). And the net result of that vote? SNP domination of Glasgow at the Westminster level winning all seven seats and polling 55% of the vote. Which, when you consider that Labour’s majority on Glasgow (one of only a few councils to have a Labour majority post STV) is based on a Labour lead over the SNP of 14% means that the provost of Glasgow council is going to be looking at these results and wondering if this is the end of Labour’s control of Glasgow (something that not even STV managed to prevent).

Hamilton South on South Lanarkshire (SNP defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 33, Scottish National Party 28, Conservatives 3, Independents 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 800, 1,975 (51%)
SNP 1,255, 502 (33%)
Conservatives 496 (9%)
Pensioners 199 (4%)
Christian Party 165 (3%)
Candidates duly nominated: Matthew Cockburn (Lib Dem), John Kane (Green), Jim Lee (Lab), Donald MacKay (UKIP), Andrew McCallum (Pirate), Lynne Nailon (Con), John Ross (SNP), Craig Smith (Christian)

In terms of area, South Lanarkshire is one of the largest councils in Scotland and when it was formed in 1995 it was a true Labour heartland (61 out of 74 councillors) which didn’t change much until the introduction of STV in 2007 and even when Labour didn’t win the new council they were the largest party (30 councillors out of 67) and in 2012 they came within a whisker of winning it back. However those days must now seem like the mythical village of Brigadoon (something that appears for only 24 hours once a century) and as it will only take a 9% swing for the SNP to top the poll, South Lanarkshire (along with a large number of Scottish councils in 2017) is almost certain to have the SNP as the largest party.


Tim Farron’s LDs the main gainers, leaderless LAB the main losers in the July Local By-Election + overnight results

Friday, July 31st, 2015

The overnight results

Hilton, Woodside and Stockethill (SNP defence) and Kincorth, Nigg and Cove (SNP defence) on City of Aberdeen

Hilton, Woodside and Stockethill
Result: Scottish National Party 1,690 (55% +19%), Labour 771 (25% -20%), Conservative 350 (11%, no candidate in 2012), Green Party 130 (4% +1%), Liberal Democrats 125 (4% unchanged)
Scottish National Party HOLD on the first count with a majority of 919 (30%) on a swing of 19.5% from Labour to SNP

Kincorth, Nigg and Cove
Result: Scottish National Party 1,939 (61% +27%), Labour 606 (19% -19%), Conservatives 313 (10% +5%), Liberal Democrats 207 (7% -1%), Green Party 114 (4%, no candidate in 2012)
Scottish National Party HOLD on the first count with a majority of 1,333 (42%) on a swing of 23% from Labour to SNP

North Hykeham Mill on North Kesteven (Lincolnshire Independent defence)
Result: Conservatives 286 (40% -19%), Independent 180 (25%, no candidate in 2015), Labour 161 (23%, no candidate in 2015), Green Party 64 (9%, no candidate in 2015), Liberal Democrat 22 (3%, no candidate in 2015)
Conservative GAIN from Lincolnshire Independent with a majority of 106 (15%), no swing calculable

College on Northumberland (Lab defence)
Result: Labour 508 (69% -22%), United Kingdom Independence Party 102 (14%, no candidate in 2013), Liberal Democrats 83 (11%, no candidate in 2013), Conservative 39 (5% -4%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 406 (55%) on a notional swing of 18% from Labour to UKIP

Droitwich East on Wychavon (Con defence)
Result: Conservative 495 (52% +8%), Labour 175 (18% -3%), United Kingdom Independence Party 171 (18% -2%), Liberal Democrats 108 (11% -4%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 320 (34%) on a swing of 5.5% from Labour to Conservative

Harry Hayfield