Archive for the 'By elections' Category

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The final round of Local By-elections before the May 5th elections

Thursday, April 14th, 2016

Menhendiot (Con defence) and Wadebridge West (Con defence) on Cornwall
Result of council at last election (2013): Independents 37, Liberal Democrats 36, Conservatives 31, Labour 8, UKIP 6, Mebyon Kernow 4, Green 1 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 25)
Result of wards at last election (2013):

Menhendiot
Conservative 549 (38%), UKIP 450 (31%), Liberal Democrat 352 (24%), Green 93 (6%)
Candidates duly nominated: Charles Boney (Lib Dem), Martin Menear (Lab), Duncan Odgers (UKIP), Richard Sedgley (Green), Phil Seeva (Con)

Wadebridge West
Conservative 830 (66%), Liberal Democrat 308 (24%), Labour 129 (10%)
Candidates duly nominated: Sally Dunn (Con), Helen Hyland (Ind), Adrian Jones (Lab), Karen McHugh (Lib Dem), Amanda Pennington (Green)

Halcon (Lib Dem defence) on Taunton Deane
Result of last election to council (2015): Conservatives 36, Liberal Democrats 14, Independents 3, Labour 2, UKIP 1 (Conservative majority of 16)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 1,012, 1,001, 889 (40%)
Conservatives 891, 851 (36%)
Green Party 605 (24%)
Candidates duly nominated: Robert Bainbridge (UKIP), Chris Booth (Lib Dem), Kieran Canham (Lab), Livvi Grant (Con), Craig Rossiter (Green)

This is the last set of local by-elections ahead of the elections on May 5th, therefore for the next three Thursdays I will be doing profiles of the elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly and the Northern Ireland Assembly looking at the prospects for each of the parties



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Local By-Election Preview : April 7th 2016

Thursday, April 7th, 2016

Ynysddu (Lab defence) on Caerphilly
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 719, 559 (64%)
Plaid Cymru 382, 224 (30%)
Conservatives 70, 57 (6%)
Candidates duly nomninated: John Kidner (Lib Dem), Phillipa Marsden (Lab), Marina Pritchard (Plaid), Joe Smyth (UKIP)

Pocklington, Provincial (Con defence) on the East Riding of Yorkshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 51, Labour 6, Independents 5, United Kingdom Independence Party 3, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 35)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 4,542, 4,426, 4,118 (44%)
Labour 2,054, 2,040, 1,997 (20%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 2,001 (20%)
Liberal Democrat 1,684 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated: Lucie Spadone (Lab), Andy Strangeway (Ind), Neil Tate (UKIP), Paul West (Con)

Almond and Earn (Ind defence) on Perth and Kinross
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 18, Conservatives 10, Liberal Democrats 5, Labour 4, Independents 3, Perth Independents 1 (No Overall Control, SNP short by 3)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Scottish National Party 892, 628 (41%)
Conservatives 1,112 (30%)
Indpeendent 444 (12%)
Labour 369 (10%)
Liberal Democrat 244 (7%)
Candidates duly nominated: Kathleen Baird (Con), Denise Baykal (UKIP), George Hayton (Lib Dem), Wilma Lumsden (SNP), Dave MacKensie (Lab)



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Tonight’s local by-elections saw

Thursday, March 31st, 2016

Moriah (Lab defence) on Caerphilly
Result of council at last election (2012) : Labour 50, Plaid Cymru 20, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 27)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 698, 543 (54%)
Plaid Cymru 420 (30%)
Independent 363 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated:Peter Bailie (Ind), Mervyn Diggle (Ind), Nigel Godfrey (Con), Ian Gorman (UKIP), David Harse (Lab)

Embasy with Eastby (Con defence) on Craven
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 20, Independents 6, Labour 2, Liberal Democrat 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 10)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 598 (57%), Labour 249 (22%), Green 221 (19%)
Candidates duly nominated: Trevor Kent (Con), Brian Shuttleworth (Ind)

Maryfield (SNP defence) on City of Dundee
Result of council at last election (2012): Scottish National Party 16, Labour 10, Conservative 1, Independent 1, Liberal Democrat 1 (Scottish National Party majority of 3)
Result of ward at last election (2012) : Emboldened denotes elected
Scottish National Party 559, 1,187 (51%)
Labour 629, 622(36%)
Conservatives 249 (7%)
Liberal Democrats 126 (4%)
Trade Unionist and Socialist 62 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: James Clancy (Con), Alan Cowan (Lab), Jacob Ellis (Green), Stuart Fairwater (Trade Unionist and Socialist), Christopher McIntyre (Lib Dem), Brian McLeod (Ind), Lynne Short (SNP), Calum Walker (UKIP)

Clacton East (Tendring First defence) on Essex
Result of council at last election (2013): Conservatives 42, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 9, Green Party 2, Canvey Island Independent 1, Independent 1, Ratepayers 1, Tendring First 1 (Conservative majority of 9)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Tendring First 1,528 (34%), Conservative 1,194 (27%), United Kingdom Independence Party 1,106 (25%), Labour 477 (11%), Liberal Democrat 77 (2%), Green Party 70 (2%)
Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Bird (Lab), Richard Bleach (Con), Colin Sargeant (Holland on Sea Residents), Ben Smith (UKIP), Rain Weltham-Cobb (Lib Dem)

Richmond Central (Lib Dem defence) on Richmondshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 21, Independents 7, Richmondshire Independents 4, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative majority of 8)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Liberal Democrats 673, 610 (49%)
Conservatives 411, 409 (30%)
Green Party 298 (22%)
Candidates duly nominated: Nathalie Carter (Con), Lorraine Hodgson (Richmondshire Independents), Anna Jackson (Green), Phillip Knowles (Lib Dem)



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Local By-Election Preview : March 24th 2016 (Maundy Thursday)

Thursday, March 24th, 2016

Dalton (Con defence) and Moss Bay (Lab defence) on Allerdale
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Conservatives 17, Independents 7, United Kingdom Independence Party 3 (Labour majority of 2)
Result of wards at last election (2015)

Dalton
Conservative 510 (48%), Liberal Democrat 226 (21%), Green Party 168 (16%), United Kingdom Independence Party 153 (15%)
Candidates duly nominated: Eric Atkinson (United Kingdom Independence Party), Flic Crowley (Green Party), Marion Fitzgerald (Ind), Ross Hayman (Lab), Mike Johnson (Con)

Moss Bay
Three Labour councillors elected unopposed
Candidates duly nominated: Louise Donnelly (Con), Bob Hardon (United Kingdom Independence Party), Frank Johnson (Lab)

Allerdale (despite it’s rather Sherwood Forest sounding name) is not in Nottinghamshire, but is in fact in Cumbria and from it’s shores can be seen (assuming there is not any fog) Dumfries and Galloway so therefore as you might expect, there is a strong Independent streak on the council. In fact it is the Independents on the council that has prevented Labour from winning an overall majority on the council until this time where thanks to a double pronged attack by both the Conservatives and UKIP, the Independents lost nine seats (one to Labour, five to the Conservatives and three to UKIP) thus enabling Labour to gain control bit given how well UKIP do in areas of dominance (and you have to admit three Labour wins unopposed does sound like dominance to me) could Labour be in danger of losing overall control (having spent the best part of thirteen years trying to win a majority)

St. Peter’s (Con defence) on Kettering
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 26, Labour 9, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 16)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,230, 1,038 (40%)
Labour 768 (25%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 563 (18%)
Green Party 501 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated: Kirsty Berry (Green), Eugene Dalton-Ruark (Lab), Mel Gosliga (Lib Dem), Ian Jelley (Con), Kevin Sills (United Kingdom Independence Party)

One of the biggest surprises of Election 1997, on a night of many, was the news that Roger Freeman (the Public Services Minister and MP for Kettering) had been defeated on a swing of 11% but only by 189 votes, and everyone naturally assumed come Election 2001 the Conservatives would win it back again which rather shows how bad that election was for the Conservatives when Labour held the seat by 665 votes (on a 0.45% swing to Lab). In fact it wasn’t until 2005 that the seat elected a Conservative MP again and now of course it has gone back to form with a Conservative majority of 12,590 (just fractionally higher than the 1992 notional majority). What is surprising though is that during all that time (1997 – 2015) just once (1999) did it not return a Conservative majority on the council so given that the Conservatives have a good lead anyway if Labour gain this ward then perhaps Osborne’s Budget woes have managed to trump Corbyn’s political woes.



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Two CON losses out of three in latest council by-elections

Friday, March 18th, 2016

Aylsham (Con defence) on Broadland
Result: Liberal Democrat 829 (48% +17%), Conservative 654 (38% +6%), Labour 243 (14% -8%)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 175 (10%) on a swing of 5.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell (Con defence) on North Kesteven
Result: Lincolnshire Independent 457 (56%, no candidate in 2015), Conservative 296 (36% -31%), Liberal Democrat 69 (8%, no candidate in 2015)
Lincolnshire Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 161 (20%) on a notional swing of 43.5% from Conservative to Lincolnshire Independent

Hutton (Con defence) on Redcar and Cleveland
Result: Conservative 879 (45% -9%), Liberal Democrat 536 (27% +10%), Labour 368 (19% -10%), United Kingdom Independence Party 116 (6%, no candidate in 2015), Independent 56 (3%, no candidate in 2015)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 343 (18%) on a swing of 9.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Average Change for Government: -11.3% (twice average since 2007)



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The first post budget electoral tests: Three CON Local By-Election defences

Thursday, March 17th, 2016

Aylsham (Con defence) on Broadland
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 43, Liberal Democrats 4 (Conservative majority of 39)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,588, 1,513, 1,125 (32%)
Liberal Democrats 1,521, 1,065, 926 (31%)
Labour 1,082 (22%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 719, 658 (15%)
Candidates duly nominated: Christopher Jenner (Lab), Steve Riley (Lib Dem), Hal Turkmen (Con)

Ashby de la Launde and Cranwell (Con defence) on North Kesteven
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 28, Lincolnshire Independents 8, Independents 4, Non Party Independents 2, Hykeham Independents 1 (Conservative majority of 13)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,789, 1,504 (67%)
Independent 871 (33%)
Candidates duly nominated: Steve Clegg (Lincolnshire Independent), Luke Mitchell (Con), Claire Newton (Lib Dem)

Hutton (Con defence) on Redcar and Cleveland
Result of council at last election (2015): Labour 29, Liberal Democrats 11, Conservatives 10, Independents 8, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 1)
Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,997, 1,963, 1,792 (54%)
Labour 1,071, 950, 856 (29%)
Liberal Democrat 643 (17%)
Candidates duly nominated: Caroline Jackson (Con), Graeme Kidd (Lib Dem), Harry Lilleker (UKIP), Ian Taylor (Lab), George Tinsley (Ind)

There are seven words that no local by-election candidate representing the government wishes to hear during the planning of a campaign “Budget Day is the day before polling” as it means that no matter what you do, your fate has been sealed within moments of the Chancellor sitting down and over the past nine years several Chancellors have managed to “put their foot in it” without even setting foot on the campaign trail. Here are some of the bigger upsets that have happened post Budget

Sutton in Ashfield North on Nottinghamshire (2007)
Lib Dem 1,979 (73% +59%), Lab 435 (16% -29%), Con 222 (8% -16%), UKIP 70 (3%)
Lib Dem GAIN from Lab with a majority of 1,544 (57%) on a swing of 44% from Lab to Lib Dem

Totteridge on Wycombe (2009)
Lib Dem 733 (54% +37%), Con 408 (30% -11%), Lab 214 (16% -26%)
Lib Dem GAIN from Lab with a majorty of 325 (24%) on a swing of 24% from Con to Lib Dem (31.5% from Lab to Lib Dem)

Gooshays on Havering (2013)
UKIP 831 (39% +25%), Lab 569 (27% -2%), Con 280 (13% -13%), Ratepayers 227 (11% +1%), BNP 202 (10% -13%), Residents 24 (1%)
UKIP GAIN from Con with a majority of 262 (12%) on a swing of 13.5% from Lab to UKIP (19% from Con to UKIP)

Overall if you average out the changes for the governing party in every local by-election they defended the day after the Budget from 2007 to 2015 you find out that the Government loses 6% compared to the last election which means that based on that long term average Aylsham should be a Liberal Democrat gain and Hutton will become a marginal, but will George will able to buck the trend (and if he does, will he be able to say “I am the true successor to Cameron!”)

Harry Hayfield



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Date for your diary: Next PB Gathering Friday April 8th + the local by-election results

Friday, March 11th, 2016

We’ve got a lot to catch up on

Just to confirm – the next PB gathering takes place at the Shooting Star on Friday April 8th from about 1830. We’ve returned to a Friday evening slot following requests from a number of people who say that will be more convenient.

It will be the third time we have used the pub, the Shooting Star, which is very close to Liverpool Street station.

Thanks again to the slim-line Fat Steve for making the arrangements.

If you’ve never been to one of these sessions then it really is worthwhile. It’s great fun just putting faces to names.

From Harry Hayfield this week’s local by-election results.

Kendal, Strickland and Fell (Lib Dem defence) on Cumbria
Result: Liberal Democrat 1,067 (60% +8%), Labour 307 (17% -10%), Conservative 172 (10% unchanged), Green Party 128 (7%, no candidate in 2013), United Kingdom Independence Party 106 (6% -4%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 760 (43%) on a swing of 9% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

Maidenhead, Riverside (Con defence) on Windsor and Maidenhead Royal
Result: Conservative 916 (53% +4%), Liberal Democrat 397 (23% +7%), Independent 162 (9%, no candidate in 2015), Labour 144 (8% -5%), United Kingdom Independence Party 95 (6% -5%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 519 (30%) on a swing of 1.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat

Mike Smithson





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Tonight’s local by-elections – a CON defence in Theresa May’s constituency and a LD one in Tim Farron’s

Thursday, March 10th, 2016

Kendal, Strickland and Fell (Lib Dem defence) on Cumbria
Result of council at last election (2013): Labour 35, Conservatives 26, Liberal Democrat 16, Independents 7 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 8)
Result of ward at last election (2013): Liberal Democrat 980 (52%), Labour 506 (27%), Conservative 191 (10%), United Kingdom Independence Party 186 (10%), Trade Unionist and Socialist 15 (1%)
Candidates duly nominated: Virginia Branney (Lab), Andy Mason (Green), Harry Taylor (Con), Peter Thornton (Lib Dem), David Walker (UKIP)

Maidenhead, Riverside (Con defence) on Windsor and Maidenhead Royal
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 54, Ratepayers 2, Liberal Democrat 1 (Conservative majority of 49)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 2,167, 2,116, 1,995 (49%)
Liberal Democrats 685, 653, 604 (16%)
Labour 562, 529 (13%)
Green Party 517 (12%)
United Kingdom Independence Party 499 (11%)
Candidates duly nominated: Saghir Ahmed (Lib Dem), George Chamberlaine (UKIP), Judith Diment (Con), Jeff Lloyd (Ind), Nigel Smith (Lab)

South Lakeland (the council area that Kendal is at the heart of) and Windsor and Maidenhead are two council areas that have diverged from each other over the years in terms of how the Liberal Democrats have done. Back in 2003, both were areas of Liberal Democrat strength. South Lakeland had 23 Liberal Democrat councillors (just four short of winning overall control) and with 34 Liberal Democrat councillors on Windsor, the Liberal Democrats were in control. Windsor only has elections once every four years so when the locals in 2004 rolled along, only South Lakeland went to the polls and that could have gone a little better for the Lib Dems as they lost a seat to the Conservatives, but they still remained the largest party. No locals for either council in 2005 but the divergence had already started. Westmorland and Lonsdale elected a new MP in the form of Tim Farron (gaining the seat on a swing of 3.5% from Con to Lib Dem) whilst down in Maidenhead (a seat that had the potential to go Lib Dem on that same swing) Theresa May held on and recorded the same swing in the opposite direction and from then on, the die was cast. The 2006 local elections saw the Lib Dems GAIN South Lakeland from No Overall Control and they increased their majority in 2007, Windsor and Maidenhead however? Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrats with 18 Liberal Democrat losses and from that moment on the two councils have diverged like never before. 2011, the next time the two councils voted on the same day. South Lakeland: Liberal Democrat HOLD with just two Lib Dem losses, Windsor and Maidenhead: Conservative HOLD with 15 Lib Dem losses and in 2015 both councils were held by their respective parties, South Lakeland seeing no change for the Lib Dems and Windsor and Maidenhead another Lib Dem disaster with no gains whatsoever. So therefore it could be said that a Lib Dem hold in Kendal would be far less impressive a result than any swing to the Lib Dems in Maidenhead but the Lib Dems have proved one thing since the last election, boy can they bounce back at the local level.

Compiled by Harry hayfield