Harry Hayfield’s guide to the action

Coker on Somerset (Deferred Election)
Last Council Election (2013): Con 28, Lib Dem 18, Lab 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2 (Conservative majority of 2)
Last Ward Election (2009): Lib Dem 1,454 (45%) Con 1,365 (43%) Green 249 (8%) Ind 131 (4%)
Last Ward Election (2009 Notional): Lib Dem 1,687 (46%) Con 1,559 (43%) Green 271 (7%) Ind 151 (4%)

Somerset has always been a Conservative / Liberal Democrat battleground going back as far as 1989. In those elections the Lib Dems (or to give them their proper title the Social and Liberal Democrats) only managed to win 379 council seats and were the largest parties on Gloucestershire and Cornwall councils. In Somerset they were in second place in 1989 but with the Conservatives having an overall majority of 5 there was very little they could do (as was demonstrated at the 1992 general election when Somerset elected just one Liberal Democrat MP in the form of the Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown). However, just twelve months later, the effect of the United Kingdom being thrown out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism on the popularity of the Conservative party was demonstrated when the Conservatives lost eighteen seats across the county with the Liberal Democrats making twenty one gains and with that gaining overall control of the council. They held onto the council in 1997 (held at the same time as the general election when the county of Somerset elected three Liberal Democrats and made Wells and Bridgwater into Conservative marginals). By the 2001 elections (when Taunton was regained by the Conservatives at the general) the Liberal Democrats lost control of the county only to regain it in 2005 (as Taunton flipped to the Liberal Democrats again). However in 2009, the Conservatives sought (and got) revenge for their 1993 defeat by inflicting nine losses on the Liberal Democrats and gaining overall control and making confident predictions that Somerset would elect at least four Conservative MP’s. You can imagine their disappointment then when at the 2010 general election, it was the Liberal Democrats who won four seats in Somerset after gaining Wells from the Conservatives (helped in no small way by a duck house). And with UKIP making their presence felt at the county elections earlier this month, Somerset could now be called a three party battleground (Con, Lib Dem and UKIP) and following those results Coker has the potential to do anything it likes!

Melcombe Regis on Weymouth and Portland (Con Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Con 14, Lab 11, Lib Dem 8, Ind 3 (No Overall Control, Con short by 5)

Local Elections 2010 – 2012

Weymouth and Portland (named after the seaside town and the local stone) is one of those rare things, a southern council that operates the third rule. As a result we can see how the parties have done going back to the 2003 local elections and those elections were, to be honest, not all that bad for Labour. Yes, the council was hung but Labour had the largest grouping (Lab 13, Lib Dem 11, Con 6, Ind 5) and at those elections was one of only nine southern councils to have Labour as the largest party on the council. So the fact that the following year they made four losses to the Lib Dems three gains was quite galling. As the third Labour term carried on so Labour became more and more unpopular sinking to a low of just four councillors in 2008 with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats battling it out for the lead. Since 2010 though, Labour have been recovering and are no doubt planning on becoming the largest party on the council at next year’s local elections, but just as we saw in Somerset UKIP cannot be ruled out of springing more surprises.

Rawmarsh on Rotherham (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Lab 58, Con 4, Ind 1 (Labour majority of 53)

Local Elections 2010 – 2012

As was demonstrated in the Rotherham parliamentary by-election, when you have a virtual one party state then people will look for alternative means to protest (which might explain why the BNP polled 8%, Respect 8% and the English Democrats 3%, so therefore I think it’s safe to say that Labour HOLD with some party that only a few people have heard of coming second.

This is what the polling showed in Eastleigh

Above is the split for the final Eastleigh poll by Lord Ashcroft. As can be seen it was C2s and DEs who swung most to the purples.

We are seeing the same trend in current polling.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

South Shields: LAB punters getting slightly nervous on Betfair with price edging out from 1/99 to 1/25.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2013

May 2nd 2013: The day could be a turning point in British politics

Talking with party activists of all colours last night whose judgement I respect I believe that Ukip are set to do better in today’s local elections than the predictions.

Remember that in local by-elections in principal authorities that UKip have chalked up three gains from the Tories since the start of March. This followed a period of two years when they made no by-election gains at all.

This suggests a real momentum and a growing activist base that is charged up.

In today’s other big election in South Shields I’ve got a 6/1 bet that their Westminster by-election share could be in the 30-40% range which might just come off. My other punts at evens that they’ll beat the Tories for second place look like bankers and these are covering bets of 25/1 of victory in the by-election.

One thing that’s clear is that the purples are doing particularly well with working class voters – the national polling points to serious inroads with the C2DE’s of which there are many in South Shields.

Unlike Eastleigh where there were five published polls there have been no surveys in David Miliband’s old seat. But the large moves in the national polls and that lone ComRes locals survey point to a big outcome which I define as being their biggest by-election vote share ever.

So what are your predictions? Record them in the thread below.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

Ladbrokes South Shields Ukipshares:0-10 7/110-20 6/420-30 13/830-40 4/140+ 20/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013

LAB very strong favourites to hold Thursday’s South Shields by-election. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013

South Shields betting without LAB from PaddyPower. The odds & where money’s going. bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013

South Shields betting CON vote share from PaddyPower. The odds & where money’s going. bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013

Meanwhile best YouGov poll for LAB since April 17

CON 31, LAB 40, LD 11, UKIP 11

To YouGov question on who you’d vote for if all parties had chance of winning seat it was CON 26, LAB 37, LD 12, UKIP 18. So here the Tories are just 8% ahead of Ukip.

Labour’s candidate in South Shields, Emma Lewell-Buck sets out her “pledges”. goo.gl/77tx8 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013

After its defeat in 1992 Labour went to great lengths to ensure that it would not lose a fifth successive general election.

A key part of the strategy was a ruthless approach to targeting. So seats that were beyond the party’s reach were simply ignored and seats in Labour’s heartlands which were certainties were also put into that category.

That meant that little effort was made to build up organisation where it wasn’t necessary. Why devote any effort because it would divert resource from where it really mattered – the marginals that it needed to take off the Tories.

My reading is that Labour in South Shields has nothing like the organisational strength as it has where I live, Bedford, a key target for a gain from the blues at GE2015.

The only problem with this approach is if there’s a midterm by-election where the government of the country is not at stake. The vulnerability was shown at Bradford West in March 2012 when Respect unexpectedly won.

I’m not sure, however, if Ukip in Shields poses anything like the threat that George Galloway did last year. I do think, however, that Farage’s party is getting more skilled in the by-election arena and looks set to get a good result.

What they could exploit is the perception that Labour takes the voters there for granted – something that’s illustrated in the vacuous LAB campaign material featured above.

The PaddyPower power bet on them winning more than 18% of the vote looks great value.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

Follow @MSmithsonPB

EdM on ferry crossing the Tyne to support campaign to win back for LAB the North Tyneside mayoralty from the Tories twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2013

Henry G Manson on an intriguing battle

There has been some discussion this week on the strength of didn’t women MPs in the Conservative Party and in Labour with some wondering if there will be another ‘Margaret’ in the near future. I can’t spot many, although a couple of years ago I wrote this piece asking if one newly elected female MP could be a ‘Thatcher’ to Cameron’s ‘Heath’.

In the meantime it’s worth watching an intriguing local election battle between two strong women who don’t mince their words.

The Conservatives have won 3 out of 4 mayoral elections in North Tyneside. The sitting mayor Conservative Linda Arkley has held the position twice. The 2009 election saw her win by four and half thousand votes winning 45% of first preference votes, to Labour’s 34%.

Despite failing to dislodge popular MP Alan Campbell in Tynemouth constituency, there remains a sizeable Conservative vote in North Tyneside borough. Even when a former mayor had to resign in the most controversial circumstances, the Conservatives won the subsequent mayoral by-election.
This contest is significant for a number of reasons.

The Conservatives aren’t over-endowed with Northern strongholds and winning again in North Tyneside would be a boost to David Cameron and support his efforts to challenge in all parts of the country.

In a rare red-blue fight it should prove a sterner test for Labour than the Liberal Democrats have so far provided in the North. Labour’s candidate is a former headteacher and her campaign has made much of her ability to restore order and discipline in the local council.

Mayor Arkley has tried to emphasise her local cuts aren’t of the scale of nearby Newcastle City Council. There is little love lost between these two women and the contest is simmering away just nicely.

Recently the Mayor was asked to leave a council meeting after a heated exchange of words with other councillors. She has since pulled out of hustings with rival candidates.

It’s understandable that there is attention given to the parliamentary by-election in nearby South Shields. However it is north of the river in North Tyneside where the real battle lay.

It will be more instructive to the strength of the Conservative Party’s remaining northern defences. If Labour wins then it won’t give any indication of its ability to win in the South, but it will deny the blues a very important electoral oasis in the North and cast serious doubt on their attempts to make gains here. Despite the lack of betting markets it is an election worth keep a look out for. Plus whoever wins this will see a strong female local leader who knows her own mind and doesn’t suffer fools. Maggie would be proud.

Henry G Manson

Harry Hayfield with his weekly preview

Angmering on Arun (Con Defence)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 4, Lab 3, Ind 1 (Conservative majority of 40)
Last Local Election (2011): Con 1520, 1404, 1324 (Average: 39%) Lib Dem 550 (16%) Lab 538 (15%) Ind 524 (15%) UKIP 517 (15%)
Candidates duly nominated: Jamie Bennett (Lib Dem), Andy Cooper (Con), Carly Goodwin (Lab)

It is now just over a month since the Liberal Democrats inflicted what can only be described as a humiliating gain of Aldwick East in Arun when they managed to turn a Conservative majority of 40% into a Liberal Democrat majority of 2% (a swing from Con to Lib Dem of 21%) which if repeated at this by-election would see the Lib Dems win the seat by 20% or so. However there are two very important differences between Aldwick East and Angmering. First, it is a straight three way fight (no UKIP and no Ind candidate standing) and secondly, housing is the big issue in the ward. The local MP (Nick Herbert, Con, Arundel and South Downs) has posted on his official website that “Angmering next for ‘Garden City’ development” and the local newspaper is reporting that not all the candidates actually come from the ward being contested which all means that this by-election has the potential to show what matters in local elections, a local candidate, local issues or the national political picture?

Mike’s Smithson’s daily poll trend chart

The YouGov daily poll trend that is no trend. See chart of all April surveys. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 18, 2013