Archive for the 'By elections' Category


Local By-Election Preview : August 14th 2014

Thursday, August 14th, 2014

South Normanton East on Bolsover (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Labour 32, Independents 4, Green 1 (Labour majority of 27)
Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 647, 597
Conservative 248, 228
British National Party 176
Candidates duly nominated: Tracey Cannon (Lab), Robert Sainsbury (Con)

Bolsover is one of those places that if it wasn’t for characters like Dennis Skinner MP (the so called “Beast of Bolsover”) wouldn’t really generate any interest at all. As an example of how strong a Labour area it is, back in 2003 Labour’s 31 councillors were only opposed by an Independent group of 6 which in 2007 gained three new members (in the form of two Resident’s Association councillors and a Respect councillor) before returning to the normal mode of operations in 2011 with Labour winning both Residents’ seats and the Respect seat and three Independents as well (and seeing as how this is a straight forward Con / Lab fight, expect the Conservative vote to barely breach three figures)

Knight’s Hill on Lambeth (Lab Defence)
Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 59, Conservatives 3, Green 1 (Labour majority of 63)
Result of last election in ward (2014): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 2,182, 2,169, 1,911
Conservatives 468, 442, 382
Greens 457, 388, 365
Liberal Democrats 256, 238, 202
United Kingdom Independence Party 249
Candidates duly nominated: Nelly Amos (Non Party Independent), Robert Hardware (Lib Dem), Christopher Hocknell (Green), Robin Lambert (UKIP), Heidi Nicholson (Con), Sonia Winifred (Lab)

When the Duchess of Deane (in the musical “Me and My Girl”) hears that the new Lord Hareford hails from this part of the capital, her expression is one of sheer distain and back in the 1920′s Lambeth was the sort of area that was best avoided, but nearly 95 years later things have changed (and Lambeth council has been through some interesting changes as well). The current Lambeth was created in the 1964 local elections and those first elections saw Labour romp home (Lab 42, Con 18). But that didn’t last as in 1968, as part of the massive Conservative swing that happened across the capital (that rated as 17% in Lambeth itself), the Conservatives gained control with a majority of 54 (and saw the election of a certain Cllr. Major). That Conservative rampage didn’t last long either as in 1971, Labour regained control (on a 24% swing to Lab) with a majority of 42 and thankfully retained a majority at every election until 1982 when thanks to the arrival of the Alliance (who won five seats) the council had a tie between Labour (32) and the Opposition (32) so as you can imagine Labour were determined to win the council back in 1986 and so Cllr. Ted Knight (the Labour leader) had a brilliant wheeze. In 1985, administration was subjected to ‘rate-capping’ with its budget restricted by the Government. Knight and most of the Labour councillors protested by refusing to set any budget. This protest resulted in 32 councillors being ordered to repay to the council the interest the council had lost as a result of budgeting delays, and also being disqualified from office but that did not stop them standing for election (in spite of the fact that Labour had nominated 32 replacements for them) so there were questions asked about “Which Labour is standing for election?”. The final result proved it was the old version of Labour as they won 40 seats (and an overall majority) on a swing of 8.5% from Con to Lab. By 1990 things had resolved themselves but by 1994, the Liberal Democrats were now in the frame as they managed to knock Labour out of control (gaining 20 seats) but also came within a whisker of winning the most votes. Sadly for the Lib Dems, this was just a one hit wonder as in 1998 things returned to normal (until 2002 when the Lib Dems did it again) and again in 2006 Labour regained control and they have been in charge ever since.


Full round up of this week’s local by-elections with news of 2 LAB gains

Friday, August 1st, 2014

Thurmaston on Charnwood (Con Defence)
Result: Labour 783 (43%), UKIP 496 (27%), Conservatives 404 (22%), BNP 95 (5%), British Democrats 58 (3%)
Labour GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 287 (16%)

Mostyn on Flintshire (Ind Defence)
Result: Independent 205 (40%), Labour 191 (37% +4%), UKIP 90 (18%), Conservatives 27 (5%)
Independent HOLD with a majority of 14 (3%), no swing calculable

Penydarren on Merthyr Tydfil (UKIP defence)
Result: Labour 257 (31% -7%), Independent (Thomas) 235 (29%), Independent (Barsi) 228 (28%), Liberal Democrats 62 (8%), Conservatives 40 (5%)
Labour GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 22 (2%), no swing calculable

Darwell on Rother (Con Defence)
Result: Conservatives 361 (43%), UKIP 182 (22%), Green 154 (18%), Labour 84 (10%), Liberal Democrats 65 (8%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 179 (21%)

Harry Hayfield


Local By-Election Results : July 17th 2014

Saturday, July 19th, 2014

Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence)
Result: Scottish Nationalists 595 (25% -6%), Independent (MacGregor) 548 (23%), Labour 526 (22%), Conservatives 445 (18% +9%), Independent (Malloy) 301 (12%)
Independent (MacGregor) GAIN from Scottish Nationalist on the fifth count on a swing of 7% from Ind to SNP

Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias on Cornwall (UKIP defence)
Result: Conservatives 406 (33% +5%), Liberal Democrats 405 (32% +9%), UKIP 271 (22% -7%), Labour 107 (9% unchanged), Mebynon Kernow 58 (5%)
Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 1 (0%) on a swing of 2% from Con to Lib Dem

Colehill East on East Dorset (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 741 (59%), Conservatives 326 (26%), UKIP 184 (15%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 415 (33%)

Hookstone on Harrogate (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 886 (52% -2%), Conservatives 551 (32% -1%), UKIP 206 (12%), Labour 71 (4% -8%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 335 (20%) on a swing of 0.5% from Lib Dem to Con since 2011

Ledbury (Con defence) and Leominster South (Con defence) on Herefordshire
Result: It’s Our Couunty 835 (52%), Conservatives 618 (38%), UKIP 166 (10%)
It’s Our County GAIN from Conservatives with a majority of 217 (14%)

Leominster South
Result: Greens 726 (56%), Conservatives 222 (16%), Independent 198 (15%), UKIP 111 (8%), Labour 99 (7%)
Green GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 504 (40%)

Airfield on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Green defence)
Result: Conservatives 305 (46%), UKIP 233 (35%), Greens 72 (11%), Labour 57 (9%)
Conservative GAIN from Green with a majority of 72 (11%)

Cowley on Oxford (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 512 (39% -13%), Greens 269 (21% -2%), Non Party Independent 257 (20%), Conservatives 152 (12% -4%), UKIP 72 (6%), Liberal Democrats 39 (3% -6%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 243 (18%) on a swing of 5.5% from Lab to Green

Church Hill on Redditch (UKIP defence)
Result: Labour 600 (44% +12%), Conservatives 339 (25% +2%), UKIP 332 (24% -11%), Liberal Democrats 40 (3% -1%), Greens 32 (2% -2%), Independents 22 (2% unchanged)
Labour GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 261 (21%) on a swing of 5% from Con to Lab

I would also like to know reader’s comments on the colours used for the various parties. Do they match the colours that you think of when that party is mentioned? Are the colours clear and easy to read? Are there any colours that you believe could be used instead of the ones suggested?


Good IndyRef poll for YES, LAB moves to 7% YouGov lead whilst UKIP has a dreadful night in latest by-elections

Friday, July 18th, 2014

YES edges forward with TNS

For whatever reason TNS and YouGov IndyRef polls have generally had the worst numbers for YES while Survation, ICM and PanelBase have had the best. Polling though is all about trends which is why the YES campaign is delighted by the latest from TNS-BMRB. After three other polls from other firms suggested that YES had stalled TNS overnight has them in their best position yet.

Excluding the DKs the split in 45-55 – a gap of just 10%. What’s pleased YES is that the firm is finding that as the DKs decline as we get closer to the referendum two months exactly from today their side seems to be befitting most.

LAB moves to best share with YouGov since March

UKIP pushed to third in both by-elections it was defending

Greens gain seat from CON & SNP has a loss

Two comfortable holds for the LDs


Local By-Election Preview: July 3rd 2014

Thursday, July 3rd, 2014

Wivenhoe Quay on Colchester (Lab defence)
Last election to council (2014): Liberal Democrat 25, Conservative 23, Labour 8, Independent 3 (No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 5)
Last election in ward (2011): Labour 1,279 (57%), Conservative 573 (26%), Greens 217 (10%), Liberal Democrats 172 (8%)
Candidates duly nominated: Shaun Boughton (Lib Dem), Tim Glover (Green), Peter Hill (Con), Dave Osborn (Patrotic Socialist), John Pitts (UKIP), Rosalind Scott (Lab)

St. James on Northampton (Lab Defence)
Last election to council (2011): Conservatives 26, Labour 15, Liberal Democrats 4 (Conservative overall majority of 7)
Last election in ward (2011): Labour 419 (35%), Conservatives 386 (32%), Liberal Democrats 208 (17%), Independent 198 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated: Rufia Ashraf (Lab), Jill Hope (Lib Dem), John Howsam (UKIP), Andrew Kilbride (Con)

Braunston and Crick (Con Defence) and Brixworth (Con Defence) on Northamptonshire
Result of last election to council (2013): Conservatives 36, Labour 11, Liberal Democrats 6, United Kingdom Independence Party 3, Independent 1 (Conservative overall majority of 15)
Result of last election in ward (2013)

Braunstone and Crick
Conservative 1,008 (34%), United Kingdom Independence Party 932 (31%), Labour 884 (30%), Liberal Democrats 138 (5%)
Candidates duly nominated: Abigail Campbell (Lab), Malcolm Longley (Con), Eric MacAnndrais (UKIP)

Conservative 1,683 (51%), United Kingdom Independence Party 826 (25%), Labour 436 (13%), Green 221 (7%), Liberal Democrats 133 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Cecile Irving-Swift (Con), Daniel Jones (Lib Dem), Robert McNally (Lab), Stephen Pointer (UKIP), Stephen Whiffen (Green)

Old Laund Booth on Pendle (Lib Dem defence)
Result of last election to council (2014): Conservative 19, Labour 18, Liberal Democrats 11, British National Party 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 6)
Result of last election in ward (2011): Liberal Democrats 367 (49%), Conservatives 357 (47%), Labour 32 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Jill Hartley (Con), Keiron Hartley (Blue), Brian Newman (Lib Dem), Michael Waddington (UKIP)

Manningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley & Tendring on Tendring (Conservative defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Conservative 33, Independents 16, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative overall majority of 6)
Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 759, 724
Liberal Democrats 656, 367
Greens 407
Candidates duly nominated: Mark Cole (UKIP), Alan Coley (Con), Jo Richardson (Lab), Rosemary Smith (Lib Dem)

Charlton Park on Cheltenham (Conservative HOLD in 2010)
Result of last election to council (2014): Liberal Democrats 24, Conservatives 12, Independents 4 (Liberal Democrat overall majority of 8)
Result of election in 2010: Conservatives 1,641 (52%) Liberal Democrats 1,512 (48%)
Candidates duly nominated: Paul Baker (Lib Dem), John Bride (Lab), Justin Dunne (UKIP), Penny Hall (Con), Wayne Spiller (Green)

Blackwall and Cubitt Town on Tower Hamlets (Boundary Changes)
Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 20, Tower Hamlets First 18, Conservatives 4 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 2)
Candidates duly nominated by party
Conservatives: Christopger Chapman, Geeta Kasanga, Gloria Thienel
Green Party: Katy Guttman, Mark Lomas, Chris Smith
Independent: Mohammed Rahman
Labour: Dave Chesterton, Anisur Rahman, Candida Ronald
Liberal Democrats: Elaine Bagshaw, Stephen Clarke, Richard Flowers
Tower Hamlets First: Kabir Ahmed, Mohammed Aktaruzzaman, Faruk Khan
Trade Unionists and Socialists: Ellen Kenyon Peers, John Peers
United Kingdom Independence Party: Diana Lochner, Anthony Registe, Paul Shea

I apologise for the lack of information about the by-elections due today, I was only aware of the ones being held in Yorkshire yesterday until this morning.

Harry Hayfield


Newark: A massive win for CON, a setback for UKIP and terrible outcome for LAB and the LDs

Friday, June 6th, 2014

The Tories will be relieved at the hold and 8.9% down on their General Election score, and better than was expected but an impressive increase for UKIP but still no win, given the momentum they had from the Euros, and polling less in percentage terms than they did in the Eastleigh by-election, there will be an element of disappointment for the Purples.

For the Lib Dems, another poor by-election performance as they lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament and finish sixth behind the Greens and an Independent.

For Labour, they’ve gone backwards being pushed into third place, and in the past, oppositions have won by-elections with smaller swing than they needed to win tonight.

Mike Smithson says: This should have been Labour’s to take

This is only the third GB by-election this parliament that has not been a LAB defence and EdM’s party should have chucked everything at it. They didn’t and the huge CON campaign clearly convinced anti-UKIP voters that they were the party to stop the purples.

This is what Professor John Curtice had to say earlier as quoted on the Spectator blog:-

“The truth is that they [Labour] should be on tenterhooks as to whether they will win the seat. That swing that they would need, it is less than the Labour Party achieved in Norwich, less than the Conservatives achieved in Norwich in the last Parliament, less than Labour achieved in Dudley West, Wirrel South just before they won the 1997 election. When oppositions look as though they are on course for government, the kind of swing that is required for Labour to win has been relatively common. To that extent, we have to ask ourselves, why is it we are not asking the question, could Labour win this? It is all of a piece, as a result of the recent elections, Labour do not have the enthusiasm and depth of support in the electorate that make them look like an alternative government.”

He’s dead right.

As for the Lib Dems yet another miserable by-election performance.



Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

Wednesday, June 4th, 2014

Watch Shadsy of Ladbrokes in this clip

Not long to go now and the polling stations will be opening in Newark for a by-election that, whatever the outcome, will make history.

Either the Tories break their terrible record of losing every by-election defence while in office over the past 25 years or UKIP break their ongoing losing sequence and actually win a seat.

The only possible other outcome that could spoil this is Labour but from all accounts they have not been giving Newark the focus required to be a serious contender.

    My view is that the pressure is most on UKIP. For a failure here could change the whole upbeat media narrative that Farage’s party has enjoyed following their EP2014 performance.

It is fine having a string of good by-election second places but they desperately need a win. A poor performance here will make it easier for the other parties to dismiss them for GE15.

The circumstances of the election and the timing are ideal for the purples. A failure here, even if only by a small number of votes, is going going to take a lot the wind out of their sails.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014

Newark UKIP backers defy the polls

Local punters are queueing up to back UKIP at 6/1 to surprise the pollsters to win Thursday’s Newark by-election, according to Ladbrokes.

    The bookies reported that they had failed to take a single bet on the Tories in the town’s betting shops on Tuesday.

Despite that, the Tories remain odds-on favourites to retain the seat in what has become a clear two-horse race.

There was also a lot of local interest in the 25/1 quoted for The Bus Pass Elvis Party to finish ahead of the Liberal Democrats. One Labour MP, who must remain nameless, popped into the Market Square bookies to have £10 on what would be a humiliating outcome for Nick Clegg.

Shadsy, head of politics at Ladbrokes, was in Newark on Tuesday and reported: ” Based on the number of punters in our local shops and activists around town, UKIP would be heading for a landslide on Thursday. However, we are sticking with the polls which predict a reasonably comfortable Tory win.”

He’s right. It’s hard to argue with the Ashcroft poll even though his CON leader was inflated by 4% by the allocation of don’t knows to party voted for at GE10.

Mike Smithson

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