Archive for the 'By elections' Category


Local By-Election Results : July 17th 2014

Saturday, July 19th, 2014

Oban North and Lorn on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence)
Result: Scottish Nationalists 595 (25% -6%), Independent (MacGregor) 548 (23%), Labour 526 (22%), Conservatives 445 (18% +9%), Independent (Malloy) 301 (12%)
Independent (MacGregor) GAIN from Scottish Nationalist on the fifth count on a swing of 7% from Ind to SNP

Mabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias on Cornwall (UKIP defence)
Result: Conservatives 406 (33% +5%), Liberal Democrats 405 (32% +9%), UKIP 271 (22% -7%), Labour 107 (9% unchanged), Mebynon Kernow 58 (5%)
Conservative GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 1 (0%) on a swing of 2% from Con to Lib Dem

Colehill East on East Dorset (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 741 (59%), Conservatives 326 (26%), UKIP 184 (15%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 415 (33%)

Hookstone on Harrogate (Lib Dem defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 886 (52% -2%), Conservatives 551 (32% -1%), UKIP 206 (12%), Labour 71 (4% -8%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 335 (20%) on a swing of 0.5% from Lib Dem to Con since 2011

Ledbury (Con defence) and Leominster South (Con defence) on Herefordshire
Result: It’s Our Couunty 835 (52%), Conservatives 618 (38%), UKIP 166 (10%)
It’s Our County GAIN from Conservatives with a majority of 217 (14%)

Leominster South
Result: Greens 726 (56%), Conservatives 222 (16%), Independent 198 (15%), UKIP 111 (8%), Labour 99 (7%)
Green GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 504 (40%)

Airfield on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk (Green defence)
Result: Conservatives 305 (46%), UKIP 233 (35%), Greens 72 (11%), Labour 57 (9%)
Conservative GAIN from Green with a majority of 72 (11%)

Cowley on Oxford (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 512 (39% -13%), Greens 269 (21% -2%), Non Party Independent 257 (20%), Conservatives 152 (12% -4%), UKIP 72 (6%), Liberal Democrats 39 (3% -6%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 243 (18%) on a swing of 5.5% from Lab to Green

Church Hill on Redditch (UKIP defence)
Result: Labour 600 (44% +12%), Conservatives 339 (25% +2%), UKIP 332 (24% -11%), Liberal Democrats 40 (3% -1%), Greens 32 (2% -2%), Independents 22 (2% unchanged)
Labour GAIN from UKIP with a majority of 261 (21%) on a swing of 5% from Con to Lab

I would also like to know reader’s comments on the colours used for the various parties. Do they match the colours that you think of when that party is mentioned? Are the colours clear and easy to read? Are there any colours that you believe could be used instead of the ones suggested?


Good IndyRef poll for YES, LAB moves to 7% YouGov lead whilst UKIP has a dreadful night in latest by-elections

Friday, July 18th, 2014

YES edges forward with TNS

For whatever reason TNS and YouGov IndyRef polls have generally had the worst numbers for YES while Survation, ICM and PanelBase have had the best. Polling though is all about trends which is why the YES campaign is delighted by the latest from TNS-BMRB. After three other polls from other firms suggested that YES had stalled TNS overnight has them in their best position yet.

Excluding the DKs the split in 45-55 – a gap of just 10%. What’s pleased YES is that the firm is finding that as the DKs decline as we get closer to the referendum two months exactly from today their side seems to be befitting most.

LAB moves to best share with YouGov since March

UKIP pushed to third in both by-elections it was defending

Greens gain seat from CON & SNP has a loss

Two comfortable holds for the LDs


Local By-Election Preview: July 3rd 2014

Thursday, July 3rd, 2014

Wivenhoe Quay on Colchester (Lab defence)
Last election to council (2014): Liberal Democrat 25, Conservative 23, Labour 8, Independent 3 (No Overall Control, Liberal Democrats short by 5)
Last election in ward (2011): Labour 1,279 (57%), Conservative 573 (26%), Greens 217 (10%), Liberal Democrats 172 (8%)
Candidates duly nominated: Shaun Boughton (Lib Dem), Tim Glover (Green), Peter Hill (Con), Dave Osborn (Patrotic Socialist), John Pitts (UKIP), Rosalind Scott (Lab)

St. James on Northampton (Lab Defence)
Last election to council (2011): Conservatives 26, Labour 15, Liberal Democrats 4 (Conservative overall majority of 7)
Last election in ward (2011): Labour 419 (35%), Conservatives 386 (32%), Liberal Democrats 208 (17%), Independent 198 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated: Rufia Ashraf (Lab), Jill Hope (Lib Dem), John Howsam (UKIP), Andrew Kilbride (Con)

Braunston and Crick (Con Defence) and Brixworth (Con Defence) on Northamptonshire
Result of last election to council (2013): Conservatives 36, Labour 11, Liberal Democrats 6, United Kingdom Independence Party 3, Independent 1 (Conservative overall majority of 15)
Result of last election in ward (2013)

Braunstone and Crick
Conservative 1,008 (34%), United Kingdom Independence Party 932 (31%), Labour 884 (30%), Liberal Democrats 138 (5%)
Candidates duly nominated: Abigail Campbell (Lab), Malcolm Longley (Con), Eric MacAnndrais (UKIP)

Conservative 1,683 (51%), United Kingdom Independence Party 826 (25%), Labour 436 (13%), Green 221 (7%), Liberal Democrats 133 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Cecile Irving-Swift (Con), Daniel Jones (Lib Dem), Robert McNally (Lab), Stephen Pointer (UKIP), Stephen Whiffen (Green)

Old Laund Booth on Pendle (Lib Dem defence)
Result of last election to council (2014): Conservative 19, Labour 18, Liberal Democrats 11, British National Party 1 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 6)
Result of last election in ward (2011): Liberal Democrats 367 (49%), Conservatives 357 (47%), Labour 32 (4%)
Candidates duly nominated: Jill Hartley (Con), Keiron Hartley (Blue), Brian Newman (Lib Dem), Michael Waddington (UKIP)

Manningtree, Mistley, Little Bentley & Tendring on Tendring (Conservative defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Conservative 33, Independents 16, Labour 9, Liberal Democrats 2 (Conservative overall majority of 6)
Result of last election in ward (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 759, 724
Liberal Democrats 656, 367
Greens 407
Candidates duly nominated: Mark Cole (UKIP), Alan Coley (Con), Jo Richardson (Lab), Rosemary Smith (Lib Dem)

Charlton Park on Cheltenham (Conservative HOLD in 2010)
Result of last election to council (2014): Liberal Democrats 24, Conservatives 12, Independents 4 (Liberal Democrat overall majority of 8)
Result of election in 2010: Conservatives 1,641 (52%) Liberal Democrats 1,512 (48%)
Candidates duly nominated: Paul Baker (Lib Dem), John Bride (Lab), Justin Dunne (UKIP), Penny Hall (Con), Wayne Spiller (Green)

Blackwall and Cubitt Town on Tower Hamlets (Boundary Changes)
Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 20, Tower Hamlets First 18, Conservatives 4 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 2)
Candidates duly nominated by party
Conservatives: Christopger Chapman, Geeta Kasanga, Gloria Thienel
Green Party: Katy Guttman, Mark Lomas, Chris Smith
Independent: Mohammed Rahman
Labour: Dave Chesterton, Anisur Rahman, Candida Ronald
Liberal Democrats: Elaine Bagshaw, Stephen Clarke, Richard Flowers
Tower Hamlets First: Kabir Ahmed, Mohammed Aktaruzzaman, Faruk Khan
Trade Unionists and Socialists: Ellen Kenyon Peers, John Peers
United Kingdom Independence Party: Diana Lochner, Anthony Registe, Paul Shea

I apologise for the lack of information about the by-elections due today, I was only aware of the ones being held in Yorkshire yesterday until this morning.

Harry Hayfield


Newark: A massive win for CON, a setback for UKIP and terrible outcome for LAB and the LDs

Friday, June 6th, 2014

The Tories will be relieved at the hold and 8.9% down on their General Election score, and better than was expected but an impressive increase for UKIP but still no win, given the momentum they had from the Euros, and polling less in percentage terms than they did in the Eastleigh by-election, there will be an element of disappointment for the Purples.

For the Lib Dems, another poor by-election performance as they lose their deposit for the ninth time this parliament and finish sixth behind the Greens and an Independent.

For Labour, they’ve gone backwards being pushed into third place, and in the past, oppositions have won by-elections with smaller swing than they needed to win tonight.

Mike Smithson says: This should have been Labour’s to take

This is only the third GB by-election this parliament that has not been a LAB defence and EdM’s party should have chucked everything at it. They didn’t and the huge CON campaign clearly convinced anti-UKIP voters that they were the party to stop the purples.

This is what Professor John Curtice had to say earlier as quoted on the Spectator blog:-

“The truth is that they [Labour] should be on tenterhooks as to whether they will win the seat. That swing that they would need, it is less than the Labour Party achieved in Norwich, less than the Conservatives achieved in Norwich in the last Parliament, less than Labour achieved in Dudley West, Wirrel South just before they won the 1997 election. When oppositions look as though they are on course for government, the kind of swing that is required for Labour to win has been relatively common. To that extent, we have to ask ourselves, why is it we are not asking the question, could Labour win this? It is all of a piece, as a result of the recent elections, Labour do not have the enthusiasm and depth of support in the electorate that make them look like an alternative government.”

He’s dead right.

As for the Lib Dems yet another miserable by-election performance.



Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

Wednesday, June 4th, 2014

Watch Shadsy of Ladbrokes in this clip

Not long to go now and the polling stations will be opening in Newark for a by-election that, whatever the outcome, will make history.

Either the Tories break their terrible record of losing every by-election defence while in office over the past 25 years or UKIP break their ongoing losing sequence and actually win a seat.

The only possible other outcome that could spoil this is Labour but from all accounts they have not been giving Newark the focus required to be a serious contender.

    My view is that the pressure is most on UKIP. For a failure here could change the whole upbeat media narrative that Farage’s party has enjoyed following their EP2014 performance.

It is fine having a string of good by-election second places but they desperately need a win. A poor performance here will make it easier for the other parties to dismiss them for GE15.

The circumstances of the election and the timing are ideal for the purples. A failure here, even if only by a small number of votes, is going going to take a lot the wind out of their sails.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble


Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2014

Newark UKIP backers defy the polls

Local punters are queueing up to back UKIP at 6/1 to surprise the pollsters to win Thursday’s Newark by-election, according to Ladbrokes.

    The bookies reported that they had failed to take a single bet on the Tories in the town’s betting shops on Tuesday.

Despite that, the Tories remain odds-on favourites to retain the seat in what has become a clear two-horse race.

There was also a lot of local interest in the 25/1 quoted for The Bus Pass Elvis Party to finish ahead of the Liberal Democrats. One Labour MP, who must remain nameless, popped into the Market Square bookies to have £10 on what would be a humiliating outcome for Nick Clegg.

Shadsy, head of politics at Ladbrokes, was in Newark on Tuesday and reported: ” Based on the number of punters in our local shops and activists around town, UKIP would be heading for a landslide on Thursday. However, we are sticking with the polls which predict a reasonably comfortable Tory win.”

He’s right. It’s hard to argue with the Ashcroft poll even though his CON leader was inflated by 4% by the allocation of don’t knows to party voted for at GE10.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter


If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

Sunday, June 1st, 2014

Traditional methodology might not be applicable

Tomorrow afternoon Lord Ashcroft is publishing his poll for Thursday’s Newark by-election which will be the only the second survey that’s been carried in what’s turning out to be a humdinger of a fight between UKIP and the Tories. Both have got historical baggage that a win could help them shed.

For you have to go back to William Hague’s victory in the N Yorks seat of Richmond in 1989 to find the last time that the blues held on to a by-election seat whilst in office. UKIP, of course, have never managed to win a Westminster constituency either in a general or a by-election. Their best performance was the 27.8% at Eastleigh in February last year.

    It is important to recall that all the polls in that contest, as the chart shows, understated the purples by quite some margin. None of them had UKIP any higher than third place.

It was a similar pattern in Corby in November 2012 when the Tories were trying to hang on to the seat following Louise Mensch’s decision to quit politics. The final Ashcroft poll had UKIP on just 6% – they ended up on 14.3%.

By-elections, of course, are susceptible to late swings which is what can make them so exciting. But I believe there are other methodological reasons why the polls have struggled with UKIP in by-elections in particular the reallocation of don’t knows or refusers to what they said they did at the previous general election.

I’ve been in correspondence with Lord Ashcroft about tomorrow’s Newark poll and have suggested that he highlights the pre-reallocated numbers. At Eastleigh that would have got his final poll a bit nearer to what UKIP achieved.

  • NOTE. All single seat polling is carried out by phone – unlike the Euros when all but one poll was carried out online.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble

  • h1

    The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

    Thursday, May 29th, 2014

    The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up over 24% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP.

    The normal caveats that this just one poll, this raises an interesting dilemma for Labour, and their supporters?

    Do they vote Labour with the prize of winning the seat. It would do a lot for Ed and Labour’s nerves if they could win a seat that Labour won under the Blair landslide (even if the boundaries have changed since then)

    Or do they vote tactically for UKIP?

    Tough times if you’re part of the tactical voting Tory alliance, we will find out next week.

    You can back Labour at 33/1 and UKIP at 3/1, I will avail myself of these odds shortly, if they are still available.