So far at least last week’s Clegg boundaries veto doesn’t seem to have impacted on the polling twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 6, 2013

Is it now just a footnote?

Just eight days ago the big political news was the expected rejection by the Commons of plans to reduce the number of MPs to 600 and introduce new boundaries.

There was fury from the blue side with words like “betrayal” coming out – yet this maelstrom doesn’t seem to have had any impact beyond Westminster.

The Lib Dem daily poll figures have continued in double figures and the party is enjoying its best period from YouGov since 2010. For nearly eight weeks they’ve only dropped below 10% once and they’ve been up at 12% three times.

Could it be that the blocking of CON 20 seat bonus will be pain-free?

It’s said that the Tories will be approaching the fight in Eastleigh with a greater vigour. Revenge is a powerful emotion.

The problem for the blues is that this comes over as a technical matter and so far has not resonated.

Mike Smithson

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+++Breaking CON loses #GE2015 +++@tnewtondunnAngus Robertson to confirm SNP WILL vote against the Govt and the boundaries review tonight.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013

Tory boundary changes rebels: Glyn Davies, Philip Davies, David Davis.

— George Eaton (@georgeeaton) January 29, 2013

Latest #GE2015 Commons seats line betting prices from Ladbrokes: CON 278.5: LAB 309.5: LD 32.5. You bet evens up/downbit.ly/c5gpH6

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013

Unless there is some remarkably bad management by the LAB and LD whips then the plan to reduce the Commons to 600 seats and bring in new boundaries will be defeated later on today.

Thanks to Anthony Wells for noting that “the government has tabled a counter amendment that would reject the Lords amendment, and adopt the Boundary Commissions final recommendations without the need for further votes in the Commons and Lords”.

THe original plan was for the boundary proposals to come to the House for ratification in October.

What is interesting is that this has never taken off as a big story. Clegg made his announcement during the Olympic and that got over-shadowed.

Mike Smithson

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Based on the 2010 SEATS:VOTES ratio it’s hard to argue that the electoral system is biased against Tories. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 29, 2013

Other parties have much stronger cases

We are here. The day that the Commons decide on the boundaries issue and no doubt there’ll be lots of moans and groans from Team Blue about how the system is biased against them. But is that the case?

Based on how many voters it required to secure a single MP LAB has a smaller number – but as the chart above shows the gap is very narrow indeed. It took 34,940 for each CON MP against 33,370 for each LAB one.

The LDs figure was 119,944 while for the the Greens it was 285,616.

But just look at Ukip which chalked up nearly a million votes and didn’t win a single seat.

Mike Smithson

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The unelected “Lords” vote on how MPs are elected. The boundary changes are almost dead. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013

See full BBC report here.

How UKIP is eating into the CON vote – pie chart of CON 2010 voters from today’s YouGov data. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2013

Under FPTP LAB is the main winner

The pie chart above is derived from today’s YouGov polling and shows the current voting intentions of those who supported Dave’s party in 2010.

The 2010 data is based on polling carried out by YouGov immediatly after the election and not how polling respondents remember it today.

The big move, as can be seen is that getting on for nearly one in five CON voters at the general election are now saying UKIP.

No doubt as we get closer to the 2015 election that proportion will get smaller particuarly in the key marginals – but it’s a brave pundit who’ll say that Farage’s party will be down to its 2010 level of just over 3% at the next election.

My guess is that the purples could double their 2010 vote particuarly if it comes off the back of a successful performance by in the 2014 Euro elections.

Given that quite a lot of the Ukip vote comes from ex-Tories then how more robust would the blue team’s position be now if the AV referendum outcome had been a YES? The main beneficiary under first past the post is Labour.

Also it’s likely that the boundary changes would be taking place.

Mike Smithson

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Ladbrokes move Etonian Jesse Norman next CON leader price from 50/1 to 33/1 following Speccie article. This is him. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 10, 2013

There’s been a flurry of activity following an article by Bruce Anderson in the Spectator tipping Jesse Norman to be Dave’s successor.

Norman, who entered the commons in May 2010, came to prominence in July 2012 when he organised and led the hugely successful rebellion that ensured that the upper house would continue to be appointed – not elected.

Only problem was, as was blindingly obvious, this rebellion was not going to be pain-free and so it proved to be. A few weeks later Nick Clegg announced that his party would not be supporting the boundary changes when the detailed plan came back to the commons for approval.

Given that this probably cost the Conservatives 20 MPs I wonder if the party will remember if Norman should put his hat into the ring when Dave is pushed or decides to step aside.

Norman has already paid one price for the rebellion. He was strongly tipped for preferment in the September re-shuffle but, inevitably, didn’t get anything.

Apart from that I’m far from convinced that the blue team is ready to opt for an old-Etonian once again.

I wasn’t tempted by the Ladbrokes 50/1 and I’m not convinced by the Anderson argument.

Mike Smithson

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The Tories launch a multi-party effort to save their 20 seat boundary bonus, www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53646 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2012

This could decide the general election

Judging from press reports and other initiatives over the weekend the Tories have launched a multi-pronged effort to try to secure the new parliamentary seat boundaries which give them a 20 seat bonus and make the possibility of a majority that bit more possible.

The first focus has been on their coalition partners the Lib Dem who pulled out of supporting the deal when Cameron had to abandon the reform of the House of lords because of July’s big backbench rebellion.

Informal soundings are going on to see if there is a way a getting the yellows back on board. The problem is that after humiliating Nick Clegg on the Lords plan the LDs it is hard to see a way through.

The second focus has been to try to do a deal with one of the smaller parties like the DUP, Plaid, or the SNP. There would, of course, be a price for their support.

A huge problem for Cameron is his ability to deliver his rebellious MPs to anything that’s agreed – as we saw with the Lords.

The more votes against the government like on the recent EU budget motion the weaker Dave’s position is.

Plaid is said to be looking for significant transfer of powers to the Welsh assembly in exchange for the new boundaries which reduce the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 30.

The DUP is said to want a deal on cheaper air passenger duty for long-haul flights from Belfast.

Meanwhile the overall parliamentary arithmetic is set to weaken the blue position even more this week with the expected loss in the Corby by-election.

Mike Smithson

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Ex-Lib Dem CEO, Lord Rennard, backs move to kill off boundary changes until 2018. @paulwaughpolho.me/RqTNK7 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 30, 2012

This has the backing of Nick Clegg?

Thanks to Paul Waugh at PoliticsHome for this but a Labour move in the Lords to put the boundary review back to 2018 is being supported by the ex-Chief Executive of the Lib Dems, Lord (Chris) Rennard.

Waugh wondered whether Rennard was acting along on this. I’ve just had it confirmed that this does have the backing of the party.

There has been an issue with the review process at the moment. This is still going on and costing public money even though Nick Clegg has said that he and the other 56 LD MPs would be voting against when the final plan is published October 2013.

Now, according to Waugh, a LAB peer, Lord Hart, has tabled an amendment to the Electoral Registration Bill to put back Boundary Commissions reviews until 2018 – six years on. One of those putting their names to the move is Chris Rennard.

If passed by the upper house this would have to come to the commons where there would be a vote. Effectively the LAB amendment in the Lords is bringing the vote forward which will at least create clarity.

Mike Smithson

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