Great Boris Private Eye cover that’ll become a classic if ever he does become CONleader/PM.via @hendopolis twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 4, 2013

Remember how Ken ran him so close?

Just before the Easter weekend we reported on a new YouGov poll that had a Boris-led Tory party level pegging with an EdM LAB one when the named leader voting intention question was put.

This caused something of a stir and was in line with similar polling at the time of the Olympics. There’s little doubt that substituting the Boris name for Dave does give a boost to Tory ratings.

What we should also ask is how serious such findings are and a wider one relating to polling about Boris when tested against real results.

For six pollsters carried out voting surveys ahead of the May 2012 mayoral election and the final survey of every single one of them over-stated Boris’s eventual winning margin.

In the election Boris beat Ken by 3.06% when second preferences were allocated. This compared with (see UKPR here) Opinium +4%, YouGov +6%, TNS-BMRB +6%, ComRes +8%, Survation +10% and Populus +12%.

On the night, as no doubt many will recall, the big surprise was that Ken, with all the issues surrounding his campaign, had run Boris so close.

It appeared that the race had closed in the final days.

The lesson I take from this is to be more wary of named leader polling when it relates to Johnson.

Mike Smithson

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The YouGov detail that shows the Tories level-pegging if Boris was leader twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 28, 2013

It certainly has been an extra-ordinary year for Boris, from winning re-election as Mayor of London, in what is supposedly a Labour city, whilst belonging to a party, that as a government had just delivered a double dip recession.

TSE

David Herdson looks ahead to 2014

In a little under two years’ time, David Cameron will have to do something no Conservative prime minister has done almost two decades: nominate someone to the European Commission. It’s a decision which is fraught with difficulty on many levels.

One possibility speculated upon is that Nick Clegg could get the nod, the thinking being that the move could form part of an amicable separation between the governing parties in the coalition, giving Clegg an honourable way out and allowing the Lib Dems to choose a new leader and both parties to then establish an independent identity. There’d still be the matter of the final term of parliament but even in coalition, any contentious legislation would be virtually impossible to pass, and there’s unlikely to be the money for a Budget spectacular (which would in any case undermine both parties’ narrative on the economic debate).

That’s all very well but the timing would be terrible for such a move. The nomination will be made in the same summer as the European Parliamentary elections, when UKIP will without question poll very well and may well outscore the Conservatives. On the other hand, it’s far from out of the question that the Lib Dems could finish fifth. For a Conservative prime minister to nominate a pro-European Lib Dem will look completely out of touch with both the country and his own party.

If it’s not to be a Lib Dem, there arises the opposite problem on his own side. The Conservative Party is overwhelmingly Eurosceptic; Ken Clarke is not only the only pro-European Tory in the cabinet but in pretty much the entire parliamentary party. While it’s not necessary to be a card-carrying enthusiast for a federal Europe, the nomination of an outright Eurosceptic is unlikely to be well received by the UK’s partners – and that does matter however strong the temptation to think otherwise.

Cameron would also have to persuade such a Eurosceptic to take the job, which may be no easy task. Cathy Ashton only ended up in Brussels because Tony Blair, David Miliband and Peter Mandelson turned down the offer, and they’re all ardent Europhiles compared with Tory cabinet ministers.

That might leave the less obviously ideological ministers such as Philip Hammond – who at defence will also have had plenty of international experience – but how about a more exotic possibility: the London mayor, Boris Johnson?

At first glance, it sounds absurd. Boris already has a job and moving to Brussels would almost certainly rule him out of domestic British politics for the rest of his career, as well as causing him to vacate his mayoral position mid-term. On the other hand, his career options outside London are diminishing – unless he can manoeuvre himself back into parliament during his mayoral term, he’d miss any leadership election after the next general election and by the middle of the next parliament, the 2010 generation will have come through much more prominently.

So why would he accept it even if offered? A few years ago, Johnson presented a TV documentary miniseries titled The Dream of Rome. Although it focussed on the Roman Empire, Johnson frequently contrasted it with the modern-day EU and was surprisingly favourably disposed towards the latter, at least in concept. Perhaps the romantic in him sees something of the ancient empire there; perhaps the element of the absurd that undoubtedly exists in the EU also strikes a chord; maybe he has something of a love-hate relationship with the organisation which his coverage of gave him his first big break as a young journalist.

Boris also has the happy knack of appearing an outsider while being very much Establishment. That could protect him somewhat from Eurosceptic brickbats; he’s certainly not the archetypal Eurocrat. And therein also lies his opportunity. In a land of grey suits, Boris would be a huge splash of colour: it’s a massive and largely uncluttered stage for him to play. It might just appeal.

David Herdson

Telegraph

One of the great things about Matt in the Telegraph is that so often he can capture the moment, as he does with his latest this morning, in a way that sums up brilliantly how situations and relationships are being perceived.

This is one of his best and will add fuel to what is increasingly becoming the story of the Conservative conference in Birmingham – Boris.

It must be infuriating for Cameron yet he has to take it in his stride.

Mike Smithson

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Could he possibly be a danger to Dave?

I count 13 snappers + 7 TV cameras at Bojo rally. More than 1000 ppl in audience. This is by far the biggest fringe event I’ve ever seen

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) October 8, 2012

Ladbrokes have tightened their Boris Johnson prices as BorisMania takes over the Tory conference in Birmingham.

It’s now 2/1 that he’ll be back as an MP before the general election and 2/1 that he’ll become PM.

Mike Smithson

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Everything contenders say will be scrutinised & magnified

Just six days to be before the start of the 2012 party conference season and my betting is that leadership issues will be a common theme at at least two and possibly three of them.

We’ve seen the media obsession with both Boris and Vince and with Labour Ed Miliband has yet to fully convince the home team.

An indication that there might be trouble ahead is that with the Tories and Lib Dem in recent weeks we’ve seen polling suggesting that both parties would be doing quite a bit better if they switched to Johnson and Cable.

Let’s not forget that those polls have had negative numbers for Ed Miliband – for almost every time the voting intention prompt includes the name of the Labour leader the party’s share drops by about three points.

For those being named as potential candidates the speculation adds an extra pressure. Everything that Vince and Boris say will be looked at for hints and the media is going to be on the look-out for delegates prepared to go in front of a camera saying there should be change.

Generally, though, gatherings of the party faithful see it as their duty, at least in public, to back the status quo.

Who will ever forget that amazing eight minute long standing ovation that Ian Duncan Smith received at the 2003 Tory conference less than four weeks before he was ousted?

For Cameron there’s more rumbling in today’s Sunday Times. This is what it is reporting:-

Disaffected Tory MPs from across the political spectrum are plotting to oust the prime minister. One scenario could see a caretaker leader installed to take the party through the next general election.

The rebels, who include sacked ministers and Cameron loyalists, are furious that ministers who supported the government — including four loyal Tory whips — were sacked without explanation. Groups of plotters have been canvassing colleagues to put in letters demanding his resignation.

There are lots of betting markets which we’ll review in later posts.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Northern voters are less enamored with the Mayor

The detail of YouGov’s poll for the Sun is on the previous thread. The big news is that with Boris rather than Dave named as Tory leader the blue team would be just 1% behind Labour rather than 8% when the current leaders are named.

That’s certainly quite dramatic but from the poll detail, just out, it’s clear that this was a very regional thing.
The chart above is taken from the YouGov detail of their Boris poll and shows the net LAB to CON moves that the survey recorded in each of its regions.

Boris demonstrated last May how he has, in London at least, the ability to touch supporters of other parties hence his ability to hang on when nationally things were very gloomy for Tories.

But the regional splits, shown above, must raise question about the overall impact of a Boris leadership in terms of seats.

The big clusters of marginals are in the Midlands and in the North West and Yorkshire and these are where the Tories need to be doing well just to retain their gains from 2010.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB