Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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There’s nothing Farage could do about this this but Nick Griffin backing UKIP isn’t good news for the purples

Saturday, November 29th, 2014

Meanwhile Farage’s price in Thanet S continues to weaken



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Key seats betting round-up and news of another constituency poll where UKIP doing well

Saturday, November 29th, 2014

Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam

Farage’s Thanet South

Rochester: Can Mark Reckless repeat by-election success?

UKIP in Camborne might be worth a punt. See this from Corporeal

Acting for Exeter University’s Falmouth campus (and their documentary on the 2015 election in Cornwall []) Survation have polled the Camborne and Redruth Constituency

A couple of caveats, sample was 500 and the question wording is slightly different from Survation’s normal format, but with those safely out of the way the numbers made very interesting reading.

The topline results were actually rather spectacular, showing Farming Minister George Eustice losing his seat to UKIP’s surge: UKIP 33% Con 30% Lab 22% Gre 7% LD 6%. Naming candidates in the voting intention question shifted this to a still striking but slightly less dramatic: UKIP 28% Con 34% Lab 18% Gre 6% LD 13%

Finally from William Hill



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Latest betting prices – GE2015 and possible UKIP defections

Saturday, November 22nd, 2014



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CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared

Friday, November 21st, 2014

Tories helped by UKIP/Farage’s poor expectation management

This morning’s movement means that the CON price has advanced by 7 seats since SPIN opened its market 11 days ago.

The money’s now going on CON to retake the seat next May

Harry Hayfield’s round-up of all yesterday’s results

Bramhall South and Woodford on Stockport (Con Defence)
Result: Conservative 2,080 (53% +8%), Liberal Democrats 1,502 (38% +5%), Green 197 (5%, no candidate last time), Labour 132 (3% -6%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 468 (13%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lib Dem to Con

Uplands on Swansea (Lab Defence)
Result: Independent 671 (33%, no candidate in 2012), Labour 533 (26% -18%), Liberal Democrat 215 (11% -23%), Green 179 (9% -1%), Swansea Independents 158 (8%, no candidate in 2012), Conservative 154 (8% -4%), Plaid 104 (5%, no candidate in 2012), TUSC 31 (2%, no candidate in 2012)
Independent GAIN from Labour with a majority of 138 (7%)

Peninsula on Medway (UKIP defence from Con defection)
Result: UKIP 2,850 (48%), Conservative 1,965 (33%), Labour 716 (12%), Green 314 (5%), Lib Dem 60 (1%)
UKIP HOLD (from defection) with a majority of 885 (15%)

Rochester and Strood (UKIP defence from Con defection)
Result: UKIP 16,867 (42%, no candidate in 2010), Conservative 13,947 (35% -14%), Labour 6,713 (17% -11%), Green 1,692 (4% +2%), Liberal Democrats 349 (1% -15%), Independents 188 (0%), Loony 151 (0%), People Before Profit 69 (0%), Britain First 56 (0%), Patriotic Socialists 33 (0%)
UKIP HOLD (from defection) with a majority of 2,920 (7%)



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Rochester betting: Although UKIP looks a near certainty there are still some interesting markets

Wednesday, November 19th, 2014

I like the SPIN spread market. If you think UKIP will secure more than 44.5% of the vote and bet £10 a unit then you win that amount for each percentage point above that level that they achieve. Your risk losing on the same formula for every 1% point they get below 44.5%

This is a relatively low risk introduction to spread betting and I can’t see it being more than 10 points either way. You buy at the higher price and sell at the lower one.



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The Tories the big movers in the first week of GE15 Commons Spread betting

Friday, November 14th, 2014

Those who “bought” CON on Monday are into profit already

It had been a long time coming but the opening of GE15 commons seats spread betting market from Sporting Index was a big moment in the betting build up to next May.

To me it is the finest form of political betting because you “trade” commons seats as if they were stocks and shares and the more you are right the more you win. Alas the more you are wrong the more you lose.

The potential for spread betting is shown vividly by what could have happened to CON buyer between last Monday and today. If they had bought then at the opening level of 279 seats they could have sold this afternoon and made a profit of whatever their unit stake was. This is because the current SELL price is 280 so they’ve made a gain of one unit. They could cash in today and take their profit.

With all spread betting there is a gap between the BUY and SELL and the Tories have more than made that up since Monday.

Clearly there has been a mood change driven mostly by the Ipsos-MORI poll which had LAB 3% behind. Although the direction of travel has been supported by Ashcroft, ICM and YouGov the online poll from Populus had LAB’s lead remaining on 2% this morning.

The Ipsos-MORI poll was helped by the firm’s rigid policy of basing headline numbers on those certain to vote. Amongst all the in the survey LAB and CON were level.

Labour has been a loser as well, surprisingly, as the SNP. Punters don’t quite seem to be buying to the SNP surge narrative.

  • Cautionary note. Spread betting is high risk high reward but the potential for substantial losses are there. Be careful and take notice of the downside risk of any bet.

    Mike Smithson

    Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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    The “any other” government option on this new Betfair market is worth a punt

    Wednesday, November 12th, 2014

    I’m betting on the final option on Betfair’s post GE2015 government market simply because of the massive uncertainty and how unlikely it is that either the red or blue teams will be able to govern on their own.

    To take one example which would make me a winner is the DUP contingent of MPs. There maybe at least eight of them and they could be in a powerful position if current trends continue. They would exact a high price but they could provide a pathway to power.

    Given the Scottish polling then it’s highly likely that the SNP will have many more MPs than the six of 2010. Could they be tempted, for the right deal, to be part of a London government? We don’t know.

    The very fact that the LDs are likely to have far fewer MPs means that they alone might not have the numbers to partner with one of the main parties to create an overall majority.

    UKIP look set to win some seats but that might not be enough for them, on their own, to take the Tories over the line.

    So many possible combinations and so many ways that this bet could be winner.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

    Tuesday, November 11th, 2014

    Another hung parliament is looking even more likely

    The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON and a LAB majority at GE15 on the betting exchange have moved to new lows together.

    This is a odd phenomenon. Normally if the blues collapse then the reds soar and vice versa. Now, with less than six months to go, both appear to have deep problems which will make it harder to put up convincing cases to the electorate next May.

    With LAB it’s the continued angst about the leadership while amongst the Tories it is the opening up yet again of the European fault line that has been so corrosive for nearly a quarter of a century.

      All of this coupled with the rise of UKIP and the Greens make the general election even harder to predict. The public don’t like split parties or apparent weak leadership and we are in a remarkable state of flux.

    The opportunity is surely there for UKIP or the Greens but neither have leaders capable of resonating amongst voters groups outside their own bases.

    Add onto all of this we have the challenges created by the first past the post voting system in each of the 650 constituencies. We could see many MPs being returned with fewer than 30% of the votes in their own seats.

    Watch this space!

    Reminder. Next PB gathering Friday Nov 21 - the day after Rochester. Usual place - the Dirty Dicks pub in Bishopsgate opposite Liverpool Street station in London. From 1830

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble