Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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YouGov poll finds Corbyn beating Burnham

Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

This explains the recent price moves

TSE



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After a difficult couple of days Burnham still very strong favourite

Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

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Market update



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Donald Trump now topping a poll in race for the Republican nomination

Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

Should we take this seriously or is it just a passing fad?

With all the focus on Labour’s trials and tribulations as it goes through its leadership election we have not really focused on the coming fight for the White House in 2016 which almost certainly will be the biggest political painting event of next year.

On the Democratic Party side things look relatively settled with Hillary Clinton the odds on favourite. The Republican battle looks to be the most interesting with several names coming in the latest being the property billionaire and TV presenter, Donald Trump.

New polling featured in the clip above suggests that he is doing very well and has even the potential to win the prize. I find it hard to take his bid seriously and his comments about John McCain in the second clip reinforce that view.

At the stage polling can often be skewed to the best known which is what might be happening here.

William hills currently have him add 28/1 for the nomination which just might be a good punt.

The strong favourite for the Republican nomination is the brother of George Bush, ex Florida Governor, Jeb Bush.

Can Trump managed to get himself into a situation where his bid is taken very seriously? I’m not so sure but he might. American elections can operate very strangely.

Mike Smithson





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Henry G Manson with an interesting LAB leadership bet

Monday, July 20th, 2015

LAB4 looking right

How are the 2nd and 3rd preferences going to work out?

In all the discussion about the rights and wrongs of Labour’s response to the government’s Welfare Bill, this article from Gary Gibbon lays out one of the political factors for Burnham – the order of candidates between him and Yvette. Gibbon writes:

‘It’s a bit of mug’s game guessing the leadership contest results but the candidates are endlessly doing just that, gaming what second preferences they need to chase and what first preferences they might need to steal. That latter scenario is now going through some Burnham supporters’ minds. If Andy Burnham came first and Jeremy Corbyn narrowly beat Yvette Cooper into second place, Andy Burnham might not be in a position to stay top of the pile in a second round because his harvest of second preferences might be meagre from Liz Kendall.

He might never get his hands on the Corbyn second preferences because the second round results could push Yvette Cooper ahead of Corbyn leaving Andy Burnham in third place and the next to be eliminated.’

The Constituency Labour Party (CLP) nominations race is close It is quite possible that Corbyn will finish highest in the first round before being rapidly overtaken. Similarly it’s possible as Gibbon describes that having Burnham could fall behind Cooper after Kendall’s nominations are applied. It’s going to be close, unpredictable but I’ve said from the outset that I didn’t think Burnham wasn’t sufficiently ahead to deserve such short-price favouritism.

The last Labour leadership contest had David Miliband in the lead on round one before getting famously pipped. In the Deputy contest Jon Cruddas led the first slap before Harriet Harman overtook Alan Johnson. It really wouldn’t be that big a shock if the first round leader didn’t go on and win the leadership. So having recommended backing Yvette Cooper when she was 9/4 and then 4/1, I think the following outcome is worth taking and also providing some value and insurance.

Ladbrokes: 1st preference vote leader not elected 2/1 (Ladbrokes).

I think evens and above is value. Personally I make Corbyn value to get the most first preference votes at 2/1 with Ladbrokes, but I prefer this other bet at the same price because of its versality.

Henry G Manson



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Peak Corbyn?

Monday, July 20th, 2015

As noted yesterday, there appears to be the start of the Stop Corbyn campaign, yesterday’s Observer editorial weighed in with “If Jeremy Corbyn is the answer then Labour is asking the wrong question.”

This campaign to stop Corbyn might be working, the above tweet from Ladbrokes points out Corbyn’s chances are ticking down, perhaps it might be prudent to take the 5/1 on Corbyn finishing last in the Labour leadership race, but given the lack of publicly available polling, I can understand people’s reluctance in not taking up this bet.

Come Last

 

You can access the Paddy Power market by clicking here.

TSE



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The Telegraph’s step by step guide on how those opposed to Labour can help Corbyn win

Wednesday, July 15th, 2015



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For the first time Osborne becomes betting favourite for next CON leader & next PM

Wednesday, July 8th, 2015



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Four hours and 26 minutes after exit poll Betfair punters rated a CON majority as a 28% shot

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

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Screen grab of Betfair GE2015 outcome market timed 2.26am May 8th

Two months to the day after the election and people are still talking about the outcome which I would argue was a bigger shock than what happened in 1992. Then there was just one poll that was showing a Tory lead. In the run up to May 7th quite a number of the phone polls had reasonable CON margins including a couple which had a blue lead of 6%.

The betting is also something that people still talk about particularly the fact that so few were predicting a CON majority. The screen shot above shows the state of a CON majority on Betfair at 2.26am nearly four and a half hours after the exit poll. Even then a CON majority was an outsider. You could have got the equivalent of 5/2.

I didn’t take that but I know that one leading PB poster, Tissue Price, got bets of 10/1 and more on Betfair AFTER the exit poll. Well done to him.

Over the past couple of weeks on Twitter I’ve had a few arguments over betting being a good predictor of political outcomes. The most that can be said in relation to GE15 was that the Tories closed as favourites to win most seats.

Mike Smithson