Archive for the 'Betting' Category


The Clinton price moves to a record high on Betfair

Monday, October 10th, 2016


Could November 8th still produce a surprise?

I’m currently in the red on the next president market. I moved into Trump in late July, saw a big increase in his price, and then failed to cash in before the first debate which, of course, changed the whole narrative.

Before it Hillary was starting to sink with one swing state after another seeming to go out of her hands. Then came that first debate and Trump flunked it.

The next dramatic movement came following the “pussygate” tape and the decisions by dozens of leading Republicans to distance themselves from the nominee.

Perhaps the most significant figure to have made such a statement was ex-POW and 2008 nominee John McCain who earlier in the primary campaign had been the target of a biting attack. Trump, it will be recalled, said of McCain“He’s not a war hero. He’s a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”

That ex-POW McCain could come to terms with this and publicly support Trump’s nomination was an important validation following the convention and helped other figures to follow suit. His move away has had the opposite effect.

My reading is that Trump’s performance last night has stopped any move however unlikely, to get him off the ticket.

This latest debate also exposed further Clinton’s vulnerabilities as a candidate.

Polling day is four weeks tomorrow and there’s plenty of time for something else to happen.

Mike Smithson


YouGov has Clinton winning the debate by 47% to 42%

Monday, October 10th, 2016

But there was sizeable gender divide

CNN’s poll gave it to Clinton by bigger margin

The WH2016 betting barely moved


Taking the 20/1 on Philip Hammond being the first to leave the cabinet

Sunday, October 9th, 2016

A few days ago The Sun reported that

A MAJOR Cabinet split on Brexit is brewing over whether to sever all links with the EU on customs controls, The Sun can reveal.

One of Theresa May’s top table team has even predicted there will be resignations from it over the tinderbox issue.

Whether to push for Britain to stay in the EU’s customs union is shaping up to be the biggest dilemma for the PM’s Brexit negotiating strategy.

The formal union – an element of the single market – sees goods pass between member states without any checks, delays or tariffs.

On the “hard Brexit” fringe of the Cabinet, International Trade Secretary Liam Fox is pushing for a clean break from the customs union to give the UK the maximum ability to strike trade deals elsewhere in the world.

But he is pitted against Chancellor Philip Hammond and, increasingly, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, The Sun has been told.

Both Tory heavyweights have serious fears over the extra costs that delays and tariffs will inflict on British businesses and jobs.

One Cabinet minister told The Sun: “In my view, there is no way Liam and Philip can ever agree on this.

“They are ideologically too far apart, and one of them will end up walking.”

Today’s Sunday Telegraph follows on from that Sun story

A new cabinet split over the handling of Brexit has emerged as ministers privately attacked each other over how to approach EU negotiations.

Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, has been blamed for talking down Britain’s hopes of getting a good deal and attacked for his “relentless pessimism”.

One cabinet colleague went as far saying that Mr Hammond, who voted to stay in the EU, should “watch his back” and could lose his job.

However friends of Mr Hammond are furious with the “nonsense and garbage” that Eurosceptics have said about the strength of Britain’s hand in talks.

“The obligation is on the Brexit leaders to now tell the British public some hard truths,” a Treasury figure said.

Iff (hard) Brexit is the economic disaster some fear it will be, I can foresee the circumstances where Philip Hammond resigns, who would want that on your CV? It would be better if history remembers you as the Chancellor who resigned warning about the looming disaster.

It should also be remembered that the Tories do have a history for very messy splits when it comes to trade deals and tariffs, so Hammond maybe forced out by the hard Brexiteers even if he doesn’t quit, especially if Philip Hammond really does think he himself as unsackable, in politics, as was in Ancient Greek, nemesis has a tendency to follow hubris.

Ladbrokes are offering a market on the first minister to leave the cabinet, Philip Hammond was 25/1 the other day, he’s now 20/1 and still think that is value, though I am content with the 10/1 I placed in August on Liam Fox being first to leave the cabinet as he is currently 3/1 in this market.




As we move to the crucial second Trump-Clinton debate the live Betfair betting odds

Saturday, October 8th, 2016

Given the uncertainties about Trump punters should read the bookie market rules

This is for the £56m next President market on Betfair:-

“Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2016 presidential election?

This market will be turned in-play at the stated time on the day of the election. Thereafter the market will not be actively managed. Customers are entirely responsible for their bets at all times.

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2016 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

This market will be void if an election does not take place in 2016. If more than one election takes place in 2016, then this market will apply to the first election that is held.

If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled..”


LAB could get squeezed in Witney and end up with a single figure vote share

Friday, October 7th, 2016

Why the new Ladbrokes market could be interesting

Ladbrokes have just put up the above new Witney market on the party’s vote share in the October 20th by-election. At GE2015 ED Miliband’s party party got 17% giving it second place a long way behind David Cameron.

The Tories are very strong favourites to hold on – Ladbrokes make them a 1/33 showtwhich compares with the 1/500 they they had on the day that Cameron quit the seat.

The LDs have their tails up and are running a campaign that is a big as the operation that led them to retain Eastleigh in February 2013. Many of the experienced organisers from that operation are leading their effort in the Oxfordshire seat. Getting the win, though, is clearly a massive ask particularly in view of their national polling position. I’m on at 50/1 and don’t expect to win.

What could be interesting from a betting perspective is how Labour will do. Looking back to previous Tory governments there is a history of Labour being squeezed strongly whenever the LDs have done well. At Newbury and Christchurch LAB lost its deposit.

I’ve gone for Corbyn’s party to come out with less than 10% and have bet accordingly.

Mike Smithson


Diane James has quit – But is Farage still leader?

Tuesday, October 4th, 2016



TMay needs a sizeable CON majority in Witney to deal with the “unelected PM” taunts

Monday, October 3rd, 2016


A good by-election result will also reinforce her BREXIT strategy

It is not TMay’s fault that she ended up as CON leader and PM without having to go through a membership ballot. Once Andrea Leadsom pulled out on that memorable Monday morning there was no further obstacle and she was assured of the leadership and the keys of Number 10.

She just avoided several weeks of hustings, TV debates and campaigning which would allowed a much greater scrutiny of her ideas and plans and, at the same time, made her a better campaigner. I always thought that Gordon Brown missed a lot by his 2007 coronation and that he would have been a better campaigner at the general election if he’d had to undergo a proper leadership fight. I’d argue that Corbyn’s political skills have been enhanced by having to go through a second leadership election.

But we are where we are and we are seeing increasing use of terms like “the unelected PM”.

Although she’s had a polling honeymoon this hasn’t been echoed in local elections where her party has lost the equivalent of a third of the seats its defended since TMay took the helm. But local elections are just that local elections. While as Ralling & Thrasher over the years have shown they can be a pointer TMay needs to prove herself in a more substantial electoral test.

Postal voting starts later this week in Witney in the Westminster by-election to fill the vacancy created by Cameron decision to quit parliament. UKIP, LAB and the LDs are fighting hard though facing a CON majority at GE2015 of 43% it is a big ask for any of the opposition parties.

Just as last year’s Oldham by-election increased LAB majority reinforced Corbyn’s position the same is even more so of Witney. At the EURef the area voted REMAIN and no doubt the outcome will also be interpreted as being a judgement on the PM’s BREXIT strategy. The Tories have to win Witney and win big.

Latest William Hill betting.


Mike Smithson


Another EU referendum before 2020 betting

Sunday, October 2nd, 2016


If you fancy a 25% return in a little over 3 years, this might be the market for you.

SkyBet have a market up on whether we’ll have another EU referendum before 2020, unlike a few other bookies, SkyBet are offering No as an option.  One of the reasons why supporters of Remain should avoid a second referendum is that the public will not take kindly to having their verdict overturned, and we could see a Winchester 1997 rerun type result in another referendum.

I also think Mrs May will not countenance a second referendum, especially with the sheer number of Leavers within the Parliamentary Tory Party, and with her only having a majority of 12, a second referendum would also appear illogical with the great EU repeal bill that was announced last night. Though the wording of the bet does allow for a referendum on the Brexit deal, I just cannot see it happening, there’s no turning back from Brexit.