Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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After a day dominated by two big polls IndyRef NO is the biggest betting loser

Tuesday, September 2nd, 2014

Inevitably with only 15 days left to go before Scotland decides on partition there’s been a lot of betting activity on the referendum outcome with the money going on YES. YouGov’s 6% NO lead, down from 18% in July, has given partition campaigners real hope that what they’ve been campaigning for decades might just conceivably happen.

This poll, and the way it has been highlighted by the media, has all the making of a narrative changer even though all it does is bring YouGov into line with Survation.

My reading is that the oldies will save it for NO for they don’t seem to have been affected by the YES surge. YouGov had them splitting 2 to 1 to rejection and these are people who are much more likely to vote.

Even so I’ve switched my betting round onto YES because I’m hoping for more movement that way on Betfair in the next few days.

For the Clacton by-election we now have a date – October 9th, Dave’s 48th birthday. The big development there has been the Ashcroft Clacton poll which has UKIP ahead by 36% before don’t knows are reallocated and 32% when they are. This is in the same territory as Survation with the main differences being down to methodology.

Whatever it is very hard to see how UKIP can be beaten with such massive poll leads. If you want to tie up a lot of money for five weeks than you should get a reasonable return.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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UKIP Clacton price the big mover in today’s political betting market report

Sunday, August 31st, 2014

LAB most seats/EdM next PM/ IndyRef NO all up as well

Inevitably given the Survation Clacton poll the big mover has been the UKIP by-election price – now rated as an 88% chance.

It is hard to see what could happen to change this and as we get closer the the date you would expect this to get tighter.

EdM for next PM and LAB most seas all up a bit and there’s been a small up-tick for an IndyRef NO.

Given the current political environment I’m planning to feature this as often as there are significant movements.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

Sunday, August 31st, 2014

The constituency, though, is a one-off

In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours.

The thing we must remember is – as Rob Ford and Matt Goodwin the leading academics who have studied the UKIP surge, will tell you – that the demographics of Clacton make it in theory at least the best of all of the 650 commons seats, for Farage’s party.

In the May 22nd Euro election the Tendring Council area saw a vote split of UKIP 48%: CON 25: LAB 13: LD 2: OTH 12. The Clacton seat covers 21 of the 35 wards in the council area.

Clearly there’s speculation over where this could happen next. The main consolation for the Tories is that in any other seat conditions would not be as favourable though that doesn’t meant it won’t happen.

The dramatic UKIP victory that Survation is pointing to will make waves throughout UK politics and other CON MPs, surely, will be considering their positions. I reckon that Kettering MP, Mr Philip Hollobone, might be a possible and I’ve had a small bet at 12/1 that the seat will go UKIP next May.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

Saturday, August 30th, 2014

Saturday/Sunday morning is generally an interesting time for political punters – even more so when we have an absorbine by-election in the pipeline as well as the IndyRef.

I’m hoping that we might even see a Clacton poll though the timescale has been very tight. There’ve also been hints of at least one IndyRef survey and who knows what the next round of GE2015 polling is going to show.

The chart above is going to be a regular.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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Carswell seems to have had an impact on the GE2015 betting markets but not Rotherham

Friday, August 29th, 2014

Maybe the weekend polls will change that?



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If Boris is serious about helping his party he’d seek to be the CON candidate in Clacton

Friday, August 29th, 2014

The mayor’s the only one who could stop UKIP in its tracks

One of the big political decisions that the Tories will have to make in the next few weeks is who should be the candidate to fight UKIP defector, Douglas Carswell, in Clacton. The consequences for Cameron’s party of a UKIP victory in the seat are enormous and they have to do everything they can to stop him.

Boris Johnson has decided he wants to return to the commons and is currently trying to secure the Uxbridge nomination. But he would be helping his party far more if he took what would be a massive gamble and made himself available to fight Clacton.

We have seen in two London mayoral races that Boris has the unique appeal to reach out far beyond the Tory party’s traditional supporter base. He’s also the one CON figure who is very popular with UKIP voters.

    A Johnson candidature in Clacton, I’d suggest, would lead to a CON hold and would put him in a far better position to fight for the leadership when the time arose.

I don’t think he will – but who knows with Boris?

Peter Oborne in the Telegraph makes a strong case for Boris to stand.

The day’s big polling news

I’ve put a little bet on at 33/1.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Take the Ladbrokes 10-11 IndyRef NO victory with turnout under 80% bet

Wednesday, August 27th, 2014

The best value punt, surely, for those who think independence will be defeated

One of the problems for those wanting to bet on NO in the September 18th Scottish Independence referendum is that prices are so poor. About the best you can get is 1/6 which means that to make a profit of £50 you have to risk £300.

A far better wager has just been made available by Ladbrokes.Odds of 10/11 (almost evens) that the referendum will be lost and that the turnout will be lower than 80%.

That was the turnout prediction that Alex Salmond made in Monday night’s debate which to my mind is on the high side. At the Holyrood elections in 2011 the level was 50%. A year earlier at the general election 63.8% of electors voted north of the border.

What’s driving the high turnout prediction for September 18th has been the certainty to vote levels in the referendum polls. Ipsos-MORI, the only phone pollster, had this at 81% in its last survey.

    But you have to distinguish between the turnout certainty of those ready to take part in a polling interview or fill in an online questionnaire and the electorate as a whole.

    The very fact that people are happy to be polled, I’d suggest, inflates the certainty level.

I think that turnout three weeks tomorrow will be high, certainly in the 70s, but I’d be very surprised if it hit the levels seen in the polls.

I’ve had a bet with Ladbrokes at 10/11 and plan to put more on.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Not only will the future of the UK be determined on September 18 – but Shadsy’s bonus could be on the line

Sunday, August 24th, 2014

Ladbrokes are betting that it’ll be NO

Great article on the IndyRef betting on the PoliticalBookie – the blog of Shadsy, a PB regular and the man who runs the politics desk at Ladbrokes.

Looking at the way the betting has gone and the pattern of the wagers being made Shadsy has this very revealing observation:-

“..To be totally honest, we are of the belief that a lot of the YES money is motivated more by optimism and confirmation bias rather than the hard evidence of the polls. So we’re taking it on. Opinion pollsters and bookies alike will be taking a hit on September 19th if the Scots have voted for independence…”

Shadsy and Ladbrokes are betting on a NO.

I seem to recall the firm doing a similar thing at the Bradford West by-election in 2012. They misread the large amounts of money that were being staked on Galloway in Bradford betting shops and kept him at longer than 4/1.

We all know what happened.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter