Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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After nearly a week without polls the sentiment on Betfair is moving back to REMAIN

Sunday, May 15th, 2016

Could all this change when we get some new numbers?

From a straightforward trading perspective there is a good reason to back IN at the moment. The third week of the month is when we get the phone polls which have been showing very solid IN leads. For whatever reason they all seem to come together and I’m expecting three or perhaps four this coming week.

So if the phone surveys follow their usual pattern there’s a strong chance that sentiment will move a touch more to IN which for those like me who trade that is worth a punt.

Nothing, not even Mr. Johnson and Hitler, have prompted shifts to OUT since before the weekend.

What will really move the market in the other direction is if one or more of the phone polls has the fight getting closer to what the online surveys have been showing.

Mike Smithson





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Evening round up of the main political betting markets

Thursday, May 12th, 2016

The Republican nomination

The June 23rd EU Referendum

Winner 2016 White House Race



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The results from today’s elections could just be the trigger for a LAB leadership contest

Thursday, May 5th, 2016

Currently my money’s on John McDonnell

Every since his shock election last September the speculation has been that a danger period for Corbyn could come in the aftermath of today’s elections.

The way that Sadiq Khan has distanced himself from his leader in recent weeks suggests that it is going to be harder for Team Corbyn to take much comfort from what seems a likely Labour win. On top of that Mayor Khan would become the second most powerful figure in the party with his credence having been helped by overcoming the Goldsmith campaign.

The cack-handed way that Corbyn’s hapless media man, Seamus Milne, dealt with his bosses “we are not going to lose seats” comment mean that anything less than net gains could be portrayed as a negative. The anti-Semitism row has not been helped by Corbyn’s handling. He’s got a lot of baggage there as Cameron wads able to demonstrate yesterday at PMQs.

If it did come to a contest, and I’m far from convinced, then John McDonnell would be in a great position given the nature of the selectorate. He’s far more capable politically than Corbyn and a better communicator.

Mike Smithson





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Cruz drops out after big defeat in Indiana. Trump is declared the presemumptive nominee

Wednesday, May 4th, 2016

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A big win for Trump in Indiana overnight has caused Ted Cruz to step aside and the Republican National Committee to declare the property billionaire as the presemumptive nominee.

In the Democratic race Hillary got beaten by Sanders but because of the way the party allocates delegates it is now almost impossible for him to secure enough for the nomination.

Hillary though had been damaged by her failure to win in the state.

Regularly updated odds: Winner 2016 White House Race

Mike Smithson





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Unless the there’s a polling disaster bigger than GE2015 Sadiq Khan looks set to win the London Mayoralty

Tuesday, May 3rd, 2016

The LAB man is widening his lead in London

By far the biggest betting market on Thursday’s election is on the London Mayoralty where Zac Goldsmith is seeking to hold on to the post for the Tories from the LAB contender, Sadiq Khan.

A big question for those having a punt is whether the aggressive Tory campaign against Khan personally and low turnout levels might just give it to Goldsmith.

The very latest polling, from Opinium for the Standard, is out and the message is that Khan is extending his lead. Opinium’s fieldwork ended on Sunday so is pretty up to date.

    The 14% Khan lead after the allocation of second preferences looks convincing and it would be a bigger blow to the the polling industry than GE2015 if this went wrong. Other recent polls have had Khan 20% ahead.

But I’m still not totally convinced. Turnout is going to be everything and we can expect that to be higher in outer, more blue-friendly, London than in the capital’s LAB heartlands.

One thing that is surprising in the polling is how few second preference vote Zac appears to be picking up. Given he made his name as an environmental campaigner you’d expect that quite a significant proportion of Green first choices would go his way. That doesn’t seem to be happening.

Mike Smithson





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Boris now 4th in ConHome members preferred leader poll. Gove extends lead

Tuesday, May 3rd, 2016

ConHome leader
ConservativeHome

The monthly ConHome members survey of preferred next party leader is just out and sees Michael Gove once again top extending his total by five points.

The former Education Secretary is the fourth person to have been there this year because it does have a tendency to chop and change. Thus in January, Theresa May was top, then it was Liam Fox, and in March Boris moved into poll position. The other big mover is Theresa May up five on April.

Boris is suffering, I’d suggest, by his less than sure footed approach to the BREXIT referendum with his blustering style raising questions about him as a future PM. By contrast Gove is having a good referendum campaign.

What makes the survey important is that it is of party members only – the group who will make the final choice when Dave does step down. It also did very well with the 2005 race that saw Cameron crowned as leader.

Live Next CON leader Betfair odds

Mike Smithson





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Three days to go and three big developments overnight

Tuesday, May 3rd, 2016

New Holyrood poll suggests that the Tories could still overhaul LAB to come 2nd

Ex CON general election candidate quits party over Zac’s campaign

And a plot to oust Corbyn



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Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his friends for his life

Sunday, May 1st, 2016

These don’t appear to be the actions of a PM confident of winning the referendum

Typo alert – The below tweet I think he means Foreign Sec, I hope

TSE