Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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Four of the last pollsters to report have LEAVE doing better

Tuesday, June 21st, 2016

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The direction of travel is all one way

Polling analysis where you have plenty of surveys is all about direction of travel and there’s a very clear message from the latest referendum surveys – it’s getting tighter and LEAVE’s position is improving.

Survation REMAIN lead down from 3% on Sunday to 1% today

YouGov LEAVE retakes lead in latest poll after being behind on Sunday

ORB phone Amogst all voters REMAIN gap down to less than 3%

Opinium Level pegging compared with REMAIN lead the week before

Meanwhile punters continue to back REMAIN. On Betfair as I write it is a 76% chance

Mike Smithson





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Big moves in the referendum betting – follow the changes LIVE here

Monday, June 20th, 2016

The June 23rd EU Referendum



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It’s 10/1 on a second EU Referendum being held before July 2017

Sunday, June 19th, 2016

2nd Ref

Ladbrokes have a market up on a second referendum to be held before July 2017 at odds of 10/1. My initial thought was no bet for me, but then I remembered Leave’s front man, Boris Johnson, has in the past talked about two referendums, “Johnson has told friends that a “no” vote is desirable because it would prompt Brussels to offer a much better deal, which the public could then support in a second referendum.”

Though Boris has u-turned on that idea a few months ago, I do wonder if we vote to Leave on Thursday, the winning side would ask the voters to endorse the new Brexit deal, if the deal doesn’t match the rhetoric of this campaign, especially when it comes to free movement.

However given the time frames involved to do a new deal, and the only thing that all Tories currently agree on as one minister told The Sunday Times is “Can we please have no more f****** referendums again. Ever.”  the logistics and the politics make this no bet for me, though other punters might disagree with my assessment on this bet.

TSE



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EU Referendum turnout betting

Friday, June 17th, 2016

SPIN EURef Turnout

Sporting Index have a market up on the referendum turnout. Alastair Meeks tipped it when it was 62, but I still think at its current mid price of 68 it is still a buy for the following reasons

  1. With Leave looking like they could win, it will motivate Leave voters to turnout and ensure victory.
  2. Remain voters who might have stayed at home if the polls were showing a comfortable Remain victory will now be motivated to turnout.
  3. With Individual Voter Registration it has seen a cut in the number of voters, which might boost turnout as a percentage.

With both sides hyping up the implications of the result of the referendum, you can see why voters might see this as an epochal referendum, so boosting turnout to a level above last year’s general election.

The 1975 referendum turnout was significantly lower than the previous general election, however that referendum took place a little over two years after Le Royaume-Uni had joined the European Community, so enough of the country knew of what life was like before we joined the EC, so leaving might not have been seen as much as a risk as it is being perceived in this referendum.

TSE



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Ipsos Mori phone poll sees a 10% swing to Leave as Leave take a 6% lead – Update Survation sees Leave take the lead

Thursday, June 16th, 2016

The plethora of (significant) Leave leads are at variance with Betfair.

David Cameron is finding EU Can’t Always Get What You Want. He must be feeling like Gonville Bromhead, as he’s told the pollsters report Brextieers….millions of them. What this poll finds is that the focus on immigration and Turkey is working for Leave whilst the Remain attack lines on the economy aren’t working.

The are  some comforts Remain can find is they are only 2% ahead with all voters, as the 6% lead for Leave is for the certain to vote voters. When you factor in Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, and expats, an expected swing back to the status quo and that Ipsos Mori finds 20% of voters might still change their mind but that’s more like the Black Knight saying this poll is just a flesh wound.

Whilst there have been some methodology changes, they aren’t behind a 10% swing in a month, after large swings with the other phone pollsters to Leave, this doesn’t feel like an outlier.

During the Indyref campaign there were only two polls that put Yes ahead. In the EURef campaign Leave have had 7 leads in the past week, just what will shift Betfair to make Leave the favourites?  My own view, whilst Remain are the favourites, the value is still there in backing Leave. 

In nine days time it seems quite likely that David Cameron will be announcing his resignation, whilst First Minister Nicola Sturgeon contemplates calling a second independence referendum.  We’re due a Survation phone poll at midday, if it brings that similar news then I’m not sure what Remain can do, as we saw in Scotland at the last general election, once we see rapid changes in public sentiment, there’s not a lot the status quo can do to repel it.

TSE



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Which of the following areas will have the highest Remain share of the vote

Wednesday, June 15th, 2016

LadsRegion Read the rest of this entry �



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As we await tonight’s ComRes phone poll a bad narrative is developing for Leave

Tuesday, June 14th, 2016

Remember sometimes perceptions matter more than the facts



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With a batch of phone polls on the way LEAVE punters might be wise to defer their bets

Sunday, June 12th, 2016

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By the same token REMAIN backers should act now

It’s becoming very apparent that the sequencing of polls by mode is having a a big impact on expectations about the outcome and, of course, the betting.

When, like now, online surveys are coming out regularly but their are few phone ones then the prospects for OUT look better which is reflected in the betting. LEAVE us better value when phone polls predominate.

We are currently in LEAVE high driven, I’d suggest by the absence from recent polling activity by the established phone pollsters. This is about to change and referendum punters need to take this into account.

Those who have been following the site for sometime will be aware I often like to bet on the betting with the objective of coming our with a profit whatever the outcome. A binary market like the referendum where the polls appear tight offers lots of opportunities.

So on Friday night after the sensational ORB 10% LEAVE lead poll I topped up my existing LEAVE position. Then after last night’s polling I closed off the bets using Betfair’s cash out facility in anticipation of the coming week.

REMAIN appears to be doing worse when most of the polls are online and vice versa. As the table above shows we have had a long run of online surveys with hardly any phone ones. In fact eight of the last nine published polls have been online

This is all going to change sharply in the next few days. We know an Ipsos-MORI phone poll is in the field, I expect a Telegraph ORB phone poll tomorrow night, Survation is due on Thursday and I am expecting a ComRes this week. There’s also the possibility of an ICM phone poll.

If these continue with the trend of recording better positions for REMAIN than the internet polls then the IN betting price will tighten and LEAVE will ease.

At the moment I’m not ready to call this election or make a firm declaration about which form of polling is best. What I do want to ensure is that whatever happens I’m a winner.

Mike Smithson