Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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It could be a case of Corbynus interruptus in the Labour leadership contest

Sunday, July 10th, 2016

Is Corbyn going to be prevented from automatically standing in the Labour leadership contest?

One of my underlying assumptions about any attempt to defenestrate Corbyn was that Corbyn would automatically be on the ballot paper in the subsequent contest, but judging by events this morning, that assumption might well be wrong.

What makes this even more intriguing is that we might be set for the most interesting court case for political watchers since Bush v Gore, this morning on The Andrew Marr Show

Jeremy Corbyn has suggested he will go to court if the National Executive Commitee say he can’t go on the ballot paper automatically.

“I will challenge that”, he told the Andrew Marr show. “The rules and my view are absolutely clear. I have taken soundings from lawyers I will be on the ballot paper.”

If it does go to the courts, my only firm prediction is that at some stage all sides will be channelling Dick from Henry VI Part II, and be saying ‘let’s kill all the lawyers.’

There has been speculation that Corbyn might resign and the threshold for nominations would fall from 51 MPs/MEPs to 38 MPS/MEPs, which should be fine for Corbyn as he received 40 MPs support in the confidence vote, but Stephen Bush has shot down that theory.

My betting advice? Keep on laying David Miliband, who is still been, mystifyingly, consistently the third favourite to succeed Jeremy Corbyn, and also lay Angela Eagle, if Corbyn isn’t on the ballot paper, then other Labour contenders, who are more electorally appealing than Angela Eagle will make it to the ballot paper.

TSE



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Betting on which year will the UK actually leave the EU

Sunday, July 10th, 2016

WHEUEXITBET

2019 looks like the year for the UK exit from the EU

William Hill have a market up on when the UK will actually leave the EU. This is one of those horrible for punters markets where the bookie has probably priced it right.

My reasoning is that whomever the Tories elect as leader and thus Prime Minister will not want to go into the 2020 general election whilst we were still in the EU as that would be the ideal way to ensure UKIP wins the 2020 general election.

Triggering Article 50 starts a two year process, and triggering it in late 2017 makes sense, there’s elections in France and Germany in 2017 which will determine who the President and Chancellor of France and Germany are, there’s no point in starting a process when one or both of them might be replaced mid negotiations, given the influence and importance of France and Germany in the EU.

So 2019 looks priced right as if Article 50 isn’t triggered by 2017 there’s going to be so much pressure on the incumbent of Number 10 Downing Street to trigger it, almost to the point she would be toppled if she hadn’t triggered Article 50.

TSE



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Where Eagle dares after Tom Watson’s Union discussions fail

Saturday, July 9th, 2016

 

To be honest, I suspect this is going to be a doomed challenge, and the more likely outcome is a formal split between the  Corbyn led Labour party and the Parliamentary Labour party, though the way the politics has been in recent weeks and months who knows how things will pan out, a Leadsom led Tory Party and Corbyn winning another leadership contest seems like the optimal situation for a major realignment in UK politics.

What will help Corbyn is what is in the tweet below, a vote on Trident surely will help Corbyn with his supporters, I don’t think the timing of the vote could be any more helpful for Corbyn.

TSE



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From Ladbrokes and ConHome two factors that should raise a doubt amongst Theresa May backers

Friday, July 8th, 2016

leadsom



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According to the betting markets this is a much tighter race than at the start of previous CON membership ballots

Friday, July 8th, 2016

Lead May

The Tory leadership battle: A lot can happen over the next 8 weeks

Until the 2001 CON leadership race the final decision was taken by MPs and there was no role for the members. So if the current battle had been held under pre-2001 rules Theresa May would now be moving into Downing Street.

Under William Hague’s 1997-2001 leadership the party rules were changed so that members could be involved for the first time. Since then three leaders have been elected but in 2003 no other contenders put their names forward and Michael Howard took over without having the inconvenience of a leadership election.

So we have only two previous CON elections to compare with – 2001 when it was Kenneth Clarke v IDS and the 2005 contest between David Cameron and David Davis.

In the former Clarke, an indefatigable pro European, never looked like a winner and IDS became a 1/10 odds on favourite after the final MP ballot had been staged.

In the 2005 contest Cameron was perceived as being even stronger and at this stage was a 92% chance on Betfair.

So Theresa May’s current betting position is good but nothing like as strong. In my betting I make roughly the same amount on both. The 2001 precedent suggests that views of the EU can be a powerful factor.

Mike Smithson




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Recorded for posterity the biggest ever political betting market that was wrong until 5 hours after polls closed

Thursday, July 7th, 2016

And on the final day



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As CON MPs vote in 1st round the latest live Betfair betting odds and Ken Clarke gives his views

Tuesday, July 5th, 2016

CON5

Next CON leader



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The chronology suggests that the momentum is with Leadsom

Tuesday, July 5th, 2016

Lead May

Could there be an effort to see that she doesn’t make the final 2?

One aspect of the two member surveys that we had overnight is that all the ConHome one was carried out yesterday while the YouGov poll fieldwork started on Friday and went through till yesterday. Given we know that most responses tend to come in during the first period of fieldwork then YouGov was probably more influenced by Friday and Saturday respondents than Sunday and Monday.

The ConHome survey, where participants are self-selecting party members, all happened yesterday after a period when the focus started to turn on Leadsom with the other leading “outer”, Gove, being pilloried right across the board in the media. For many members, I’d suggest, it has only been in the past couple of days that they’ve been made aware of Leadsom.

ConHome “polls”, as I’ve argued many times here, cannot be compared to surveys carried out by major pollsters. But we can compare one ConHome survey to previous ones carried out using their same approach. A week ago May on 29% was 1% ahead of Boris with Leadsom on 13%. So in the space of a week on this methodology she has tripled her support. Boris of course is not now on the list.

CON MPs, who’ve been described as the “world’s most sophisticated electorate”, vote today in 1st round of the their leadership contest.

    I wonder if in subsequent rounds there’ll be an effort to try to squeeze Leadsom out of the top two by May supporters tactically voting for whoever looked best able to impede the climate change minister. This, of course, is what happened to Michael Portillo in 2001.

My current view is that if it is Leadsom versus May in the Members’ ballot then the former is in with a very good chance. It’ll be a bit like Corbyn versus Burnham where the former appealed to the selectorate’s “heart”.

Mike Smithson