Ladbrokes South Shields Ukipshares:0-10 7/110-20 6/420-30 13/830-40 4/140+ 20/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013

LAB very strong favourites to hold Thursday’s South Shields by-election. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013

South Shields betting without LAB from PaddyPower. The odds & where money’s going. bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013

South Shields betting CON vote share from PaddyPower. The odds & where money’s going. bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013

PPP poll on the N Hampshire GOP race for WH2016 has Rand Paul on 28% – 3% up on fav Rubio. goo.gl/RW2Ih twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 26, 2013

Back on November 17th 2012 I backed Ron Paul’s son, at 50/1, to be the WH2016 Republican nominee.

A PPP poll in the first full primary state of New Hampshire had him at just 4%.

Today a new PPP New Hampshire poll is out putting Rand in the lead on 28% – 3% ahead of the betting favourite, Mario Rubio.

My thinking six months ago was that a big thing that Rand Paul’s likely to have going for him is his father’s extraordinarily enthusiastic and well organised supporter base that at one stage during last summer threatened to make life very difficult for the Romney camp.

In many states ostensibly won by Romney Paul supporters managed to get themselves elected as convention delegates and could have been in a powerful position. It was only when Ron himself intervened to call his troops off that Romney looked secure.

Rand Paul will be very strong in the states that have party caucuses rather than primaries and he’s likely to have a well-honed fund-raising machine.

Since November Rand has been more in the public eye following a spectacular 13 hour filibuster in the Senate.

Regular followers of PB will know that I love long-standing at big odds placed years in advance. I backed and tipped Barack Obama at 50/1 in May 2005. Maybe my Rand Paul 50/1 bet will also come good?

Mike Smithson

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A factor driving Ukip in the national polls. Their supporters are much more likely to say”100% certain to vote” twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013

Ladbrokes open the first market on the May 2 locals. It’s 5/2 that UKIP gain 100+ seats. bit.ly/c5gpH6

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013

Just how many seats will the purples win?

The big talking point at last night’s PB gathering at Dirty Dicks in London was how many seats will Ukip pick up in the local elections a week on Thursday.

I know that one or two of those attending agreed wagers and today Shadsy, who was at the party, from Ladbrokes has put up a betting market on the purples chalking up 100+ gains.

One thing that’s becoming clear is the great enthusiasm for their party that many Ukip supporters seem to have.

That’s reflected in the latest Ipsos-MORI polling featured above where 85% of those saying they’re 100% certain to vote at the next general election which is well ahead of the other parties.

We’ve seen in recent local elections that Ukip is securing an increasing share of the vote as well as picking up seats. In the past seven weeks three have been taken from the Tories.

For me the big consequence of the Ukip surge is not going to be the number of seats but how the syphoning off of support will impact on the Tory performance.

The blues are particularly vulnerable simply because they are defending twice as many seats as Labour and the LDs combined.

Mike Smithson

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A poster for UKIP’s Richard Elvin from Middlesbrough by election.He’s tobe candidate in #SouthShields twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2013

Ukip choose the man who came second in Middlesbrough

It is being reported that Ukip have become the first of the major contenders to choose their candidate for the South Shields by-election, due next month.

He’s Richard Elvin who lives just 14 miles away so is not too far off being a local.

Looking at a short TV interview he comes over as being credible – though he’s not a Diane James.

Even though Ukip has the momentum with it he’ll face a massive challenge in the solid LAB stronghold which was David Miliband’s seat.

The best you can get on Ukip winning is 16/1 from Ladbrokes.

Labour is due to select on Wednesday and the hot favourite is a local councillor.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news

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Latest pie chart showing the betting activity and odds on #SouthShields by election. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2013

Rather than a Bradford West – maybe a Blaenau Gwent?

The South Shields by-election ought to be as close to a certainty as it’s possible to get as by-elections go.  With Labour the sole main party of opposition, in a seat that they’ve held since 1935 where they’re defending a majority of more than eleven thousand secured on a poor national share, it should be no contest.

Unlike Eastleigh, South Shields is also short of any other party with clear strength.  The Conservatives and Lib Dems will obviously go backwards on national trends and, if the local elections there are anything to go by, on very patchy presence on the ground.  The fourth party in 2010 was the BNP, who retained their deposit, but they’ve imploded spectacularly since.

Perhaps surprisingly given that it was the foreign secretary’s seat at the time, South Shields was one of the few English constituencies UKIP didn’t even contest the 2010 election.  They didn’t stand in any of the wards in last year’s local elections either.  While local organisation isn’t everything, it probably is a necessary factor for any party aiming to gain a seat as dyed-in-the-wool as this one.  Given the probable line-up and current political landscape, UKIP could probably finish second on protest votes alone but they’ll be some considerable way back from Labour.

So, if none of the obvious parties bar Labour could win it, how about one that isn’t obvious, or a candidate representing none of them at all?  The definition of ‘Any Other’ varies between bookies or markets but in all cases incorporates Independents and is available at 100/1 upwards.  To my mind, this is probably the most likely non-Labour winner.

Labour has already lost one by-election this parliament to an ‘Any Other’ candidate but South Shields is a very different place from Bradford West and we should put that comparison aside.  A better parallel might be Blaenau Gwent.  As is normal for Labour in by-elections, the candidate will be chosen by the NEC.  If it’s sensible, it will choose a local candidate and all will go boringly smoothly.  If it doesn’t, things become more interesting.

Two points to note here: Miliband only became candidate and subsequently MP in the first place because David Clark stood down very late in the parliament, so cutting the constituency out of the selection process.  It was not popular and to impose an outsider again would be even less popular.  Secondly, while Labour doesn’t have any major party opposition in the constituency, they have been run close by several independents in local elections: there might be an antipathy to other established parties but it’s no longer rosette-on-a-donkey country.

All of which points to 100/1 for Any Other being value.  We are in the realms of multiple contingencies but then that’s usually the case for long-odds bets.  The NEC probably will select a credible local candidate.  Even if they don’t, there’s no guarantee there’ll be a Blaenau Gwent-style nominal Independent but really Local Labour candidate.  Even if there is, there’s no guarantee they’d win (though they would vacuum up the protest votes – in such a situation, UKIP would poll much more poorly than in a straight party fight).  Still, stranger things have happened.

David Herdson

The Grand National isn’t my favourite race but like the Boat Race and FA Cup Final, it is one of those televised events that takes a sport way beyond its usual public, so I somehow feel obliged to convey my thoughts on the contest to my adoring PB public and help those who would punt to do so with a little more chance of success, and those who would not with at least a little more understanding and enjoyment.

Since Phil Smith, the BHA Head Handicapper, first began to tinker with the official ratings for this race, the quality of horses participating has improved substantially. As a result, it is no longer possible for the shrewder punters to delete half the field as no-hopers, as it once was. Nowadays, one would be hard-pressed to nominate more than six such animals, and as for producing a shortlist….well, it was only with some difficulty that I got it down to seven. For what it’s worth, I give you:

On His Own 15/2 – Was travelling beautifully last year before falling.

Seabass 11/1 – Last year’s third.

Cappa Bleu 12/1 – Fourth last year, and possibly improved since.

Colbert Station 12/1 – Progressive nine-year-old.

Chicago Grey 14/1 – Unluckily brought down last year.

Join Together 18/1 – The pick of the Paul Nicholls bunch.

Across The Bay 40/1 – Bang in form and appears to have been aimed at the race.

The shorter-priced horses I would rule out are Imperial Commander and Ballabriggs (both too old), Teaforthree (ran a stinker at Cheltenham) and Balthazar King (cross-country form does not compute for Aintree.)

If you want to gamble on a longer shot, all of the following are likely to outrun their price: Rare Bob, Roberto Goldback, Soll, Quel Esprit and Joncol.

At very long odds, Tarquinius has a squeak, but like many on this Site, nothing would persuade me to support Gullible Gordon.

The professional punter in me warns that this is really a ‘no-bet’ race, and I would probably have skipped it had I not been alerted by Tim (of this Parish) to a possible plot. When legendary owner and gambler JP McManus lines up with almost as legendary trainer, commentator and sire of jockeys Ted Walsh, you have got to suspect something. The price of Colbert Station has been quietly shortening and I don’t believe this is wholly down to speculation that champion jockey McCoy will ride. As conspiracy theories go, I’ve heard worse and my money is down.

Of course, some will regard any suggestion from Tim, even a racing tip, as politically tainted, so in the interest of balance I will also nominate a horse of a different colour, Cappa Bleu.

Those of a coalition mind set will no doubt wish to support both, each way.

Toodle pip!

Peter Smith [Peter the Punter]

The race for #SouthShields. LAB needs to handle its candidate selection carefully. bit.ly/16qoZ1R . twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2013

Memories of how David Miliband got it in 2001 could be revived

Already there are rumblings in South Shields about who LAB should choose for the super-safe seat in the coming by-election partly because the national party has got “form” in the area.

This, according to Wikipedia entry on Miliband’s predecessor in the constituency, the former cabinet minister, David Clark is what happened in 2001.

“Clark sought reselection by the South Shields Constituency Labour Party in order to contest the 2001 General Election for the seat. However, control of the constituency Party had swung in favour of a vocal group of critics, led by a faction within South Tyneside Council, who feared Clark actually intended to stand down when the General Election was called, thus enabling the Labour Party’s National Executive Committee to parachute a favoured candidate into the Constituency historically a safe Labour seat.

During the reselection contest Clark vigorously denied the claims and told the Shields Gazette newspaper advising he had every intention of contesting the General Election. In the event, Clark won reselection but only with support of regional trade union barons.

When Prime Minister Tony Blair announced the date of the General Election in 2001, Clark immediately stood down and the Labour Party NEC moved swiftly, New Labour rising star David Miliband was selected to fight the seat.

Within weeks of the Labour Party winning the 2001 General Election, Clark was given a life peerage as Baron Clark of Windermere, of Windermere in the County of Cumbria and now sits in the House of Lords. He was also appointed the paid post of Chairman of the Forestry Commission.

Unlike general elections when the government of the country is at stake the choice of who should be the candidate and the manner in which the process is handled can matter enormously.

Ukip will be watching every step closely for an opening that they can exploit.

In the betting Labour remain a super strong odds on favourite to retain the seat. PaddyPower have them at 1/25 with Ukip on 16/1. Ukip is odds-on favourite to be ahead of the Tories and to come second.

Mike Smithson

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According to the Indy the Scottish Sun will remain neutral in next year’s #IndyRef.goo.gl/SiAfA twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2013

A blow for Alex Salmond?

According to a report in the Independent this morning Scotland’s biggest-selling newspaper, the Murdoch-owned, Scottish Sun, will remain neutral in the September 2014 independence referendum.

In a piece recalling Rupert Murdoch’s Tweet last year about Salmons being the “most brilliant politician in the UK” James Cusick sets out the latest developments:-

“..In a significant blow to Alex Salmond’s attempt to close the gap on the current substantial pro-Union lead, senior management sources inside News International in both London and Glasgow told The Independent that The Scottish Sun, which backed Mr Salmond in his landslide victory at the 2011 Holyrood election, is not looking to back the SNP ahead of the 18 September vote next year.

The decision effectively draws a line under a four-year charm offensive by Mr Murdoch towards Scotland’s First Minister and ends a friendly and unlikely alliance between the global media mogul and the pugnacious ringmaster of Scottish politics. The SNP’s failure to continue being supported by the Sun, which sells around 300,000 copies north of the border, will force a rethink of the “Yes” campaign’s strategy..”

It is always said that Murdoch likes to back winners and the current polling suggests that the YES camp has a struggle on its hands.

Punters make NO a strong odds-on favourite. The best you can get is 2/7.

Mike Smithson

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Follow @MSmithsonPB