Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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The Greek finance minister says he’d rather ‘cut his arm off’ than sign a deal that doesn’t include debt relief

Thursday, July 2nd, 2015

The betting markets seem to believe that Yes will win, but I suspect whatever the outcome either the Greek government or the Euro in Greece will be gone shortly after the referendum result is announced might lead to the government, money, people and businesses wanting to get out of Greece like a bat out of Hellas, it won’t be just a flesh wound for Greece.

All of this is just a few days before George Osborne presents his summer budget

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How a third runway at Heathrow could make for a real Old Etonian mess for Cameron

Wednesday, July 1st, 2015

David Cameron in 2013 reaffirming his 2009 pledge that “The third runway at Heathrow is not going ahead, no ifs, no buts.”

It might be a novel experience for the Tory Party to be split on issue other than than EU, but the third runway at Heathrow has the potential to be just as problematic. Today the Davies report has backed building a third runway at Heathrow. The above video shows Cameron in 2013 reaffirming a 2009 pledge not to build a third runway at Heathrow. Boris Johnson is also very unhappy over the proposals, whilst Zac Goldsmith, the favourite to be the next Mayor of London has said he will trigger a by-election if the third runway were to be built.

However, the Davies report makes a very strong economic case for a third runway, such as 70,000 new jobs and £147 billion in economic growth by 2050. Given the way the Tories won the election in May, down to voters seeing them as best to run the economy, turning down a third runway might damage that credibility on the economy. I’m sure Nick Clegg will tell Cameron that there is no electoral downside if you do a u-turn on a pre-election promise.

Were Zac to trigger a by election, he might run for London Mayor as an independent, with a focus on opposition to the third runway, the Mayor of London is elected under the supplementary vote, so Zac could be theoretically very transfer friendly particularly if he stands as the anti third runway candidate.

Right now, 16/1 on any other candidate other than Lab, Con or LD, to win the London Mayoral election next year could be the way to go. The government’s final decision on the Davies report will be this year, my own hunch is that Cameron will do what is best for economy/country rather than stick to his original pledge, so that means a third runway.

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Betting on when the Greek banks reopen

Tuesday, June 30th, 2015

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For the Greek people, it appears this tragedy has been going on longer than it took Odysseus reach home after the fall of Troy, but looking at the above tweets, it is looking like that we are approaching the end phase of Grexit. Last night, the Greek Prime Minister indicated he would resign if the Greek’s voted yes in Sunday’s referendum.

So on that basis the 1/2 on the banks opening on July 8th or later might be the way to go, right now, we don’t know what the Greek currency or government will be in a week’s time, until we do, the banks will remain closed is my thinking.

The link to the Paddy Power market is here.

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Note – This thread was written around 12.15pm BST, so the situation might have changed since then please check the news before you place any bets, the Greek government’s approach indicates they have lost their marbles, or will the EU delay Acropolis Now, either way, the Greek banks are going  to be the centaur of attention for the next few days.



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Why you should be backing Jeremy Hunt as next PM

Monday, June 29th, 2015

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A betting slip from a few days ago.

Despite their very best efforts, Labour wasn’t able to weaponise the NHS to their advantage or damage the Tories on the NHS in the election campaign (nor in the run up to the election.) The NHS is an issue that has been traditionally perceived to be one of Labour’s strongest areas, Labour’s failure to make the NHS an election issue says a lot about Hunt’s abilities as a Minister and to deal with his opponents & the media, something which is a pre-requisite for any successful party leader.

At the time of writing, the best price you can get on Jeremy Hunt as next Prime Minister is 50/1 with Corals, when Sajid Javid’s best price is 14/1, then in my opinion, there’s something wrong with Hunt’s price, as I think both should be similarly priced and Javid’s price is about right.

Another advantage for Hunt is, that the NHS is one of the very few government departments that has its budget ring-fenced from cuts, and is expected to receive increased funding, so whilst other ministers struggle with departmental spending cuts, Hunt’s department, which is arguably the most high profile public service government department, won’t be dealing with such issues, which should theoretically help him politically.

If Andy Burnham, as expected, does become the next Labour leader, then Hunt can point to his his record vis-à-vis Burnham why the Tories should elect him leader. The fact that Andy Burnham couldn’t use the NHS to Labour’s advantage, especially after the widely criticised Lansley reforms, is a story for another thread. No wonder a few weeks ago, Jeremy Hunt publicly declared that he wanted Andy Burnham to become Labour leader.

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How winning a political bet can get you into trouble

Sunday, June 28th, 2015

Just don’t tell anyone you bet on your own side losing

I like this story in the Mail on Sunday, Frank Field the Labour MP for Birkenhead and Matthew Taylor, Tony Blair’s former head of policy and who wrote the 2005 Labour manifesto both bet on the Tories winning a majority in May. This has understandably earned the ire of some in the Labour party, who said

‘It is gross disloyalty and they should be ashamed of themselves…..To criticise openly is one thing, but to go out and bet on us losing is appalling.’

We should have paid more attention, when Frank Field said last year of Ed Miliband, voters were ‘repelled’ by the policies of Miliband who was ‘pissing while Rome burns.’

The Mail on Sunday story can be viewed here.

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In Greece the crisis over the Euro is set to become a Drachma

Saturday, June 27th, 2015

It appears, unsurprisingly, that all the bookies have suspended their markets on the outcome of the referendum and Greek exiting the Euro after this announcement

This is all happening eleven days before George Osborne’s presents his emergency budget, it might strengthen his case for austerity, it may also end the clamour for tax cuts, particularly the top rate of tax is unlikely to be cut from 45% given the wider economic mood.

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Another reason to justify Zac’s status as favourite

Wednesday, June 24th, 2015

London calling for a third time for the architect of the Tory general election victory?

At the general election in London, relatively speaking, Labour did better, the Tories did worse than the rest of the country, which might indicate a slight resistance to Crosby’s methods. However given his past success in London with the current mayor, this should mitigate any worries.

With this news today, Zac Goldsmith now has another factor to justify his current status as favourite in the clash to be the next Mayor of London.

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Two new betting markets

Wednesday, June 24th, 2015

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Following on from Tissue Price’s piece yesterday, Ladbrokes have put a market on most seats without the SNP.

As he said yesterday,  If, when the market goes up, you see a price bigger than this on any of these I’d tentatively suggest that it might be value. Labour 4/7 Green 7/2 Conservatives 6/1

Meanwhile Paddy Power have a market on who will get the second highest number of first preferences in the Labour leadership election. The head says Yvette Cooper, the heart says Jeremy Corbyn, based mostly on the assertion of some close to his campaign who “believe he could win between 10 and 20 per cent of the votes” but they would say that wouldn’t they?

Paddy 2nd 1st prefs

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UPDATE – Following Henry G Manson’s recent piece on the Labour  London mayoral contest, Len Duval has made a response, which has been included on the original piece.

Response from Mr Duval

If you read the Evening Standard article it is clear I didn’t give any impression that association with mosques or unions is bad thing as you imply. Labour candidates should be reaching out to all Londoners.

As the article says I was asked a question by the journalist and said only that everyone should stick to rules and that it would be damaging if candidates didn’t enter into the selection in spirit it was set up – to encourage as many individual Londoners as possible, from all backgrounds, to participate and have their say.

It seems you are looking for a row where there is none and that your real problem is that I am backing Tessa.