Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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Latest betting prices – GE2015 and possible UKIP defections

Saturday, November 22nd, 2014



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CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared

Friday, November 21st, 2014

Tories helped by UKIP/Farage’s poor expectation management

This morning’s movement means that the CON price has advanced by 7 seats since SPIN opened its market 11 days ago.

The money’s now going on CON to retake the seat next May

Harry Hayfield’s round-up of all yesterday’s results

Bramhall South and Woodford on Stockport (Con Defence)
Result: Conservative 2,080 (53% +8%), Liberal Democrats 1,502 (38% +5%), Green 197 (5%, no candidate last time), Labour 132 (3% -6%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 468 (13%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lib Dem to Con

Uplands on Swansea (Lab Defence)
Result: Independent 671 (33%, no candidate in 2012), Labour 533 (26% -18%), Liberal Democrat 215 (11% -23%), Green 179 (9% -1%), Swansea Independents 158 (8%, no candidate in 2012), Conservative 154 (8% -4%), Plaid 104 (5%, no candidate in 2012), TUSC 31 (2%, no candidate in 2012)
Independent GAIN from Labour with a majority of 138 (7%)

Peninsula on Medway (UKIP defence from Con defection)
Result: UKIP 2,850 (48%), Conservative 1,965 (33%), Labour 716 (12%), Green 314 (5%), Lib Dem 60 (1%)
UKIP HOLD (from defection) with a majority of 885 (15%)

Rochester and Strood (UKIP defence from Con defection)
Result: UKIP 16,867 (42%, no candidate in 2010), Conservative 13,947 (35% -14%), Labour 6,713 (17% -11%), Green 1,692 (4% +2%), Liberal Democrats 349 (1% -15%), Independents 188 (0%), Loony 151 (0%), People Before Profit 69 (0%), Britain First 56 (0%), Patriotic Socialists 33 (0%)
UKIP HOLD (from defection) with a majority of 2,920 (7%)



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Rochester betting: Although UKIP looks a near certainty there are still some interesting markets

Wednesday, November 19th, 2014

I like the SPIN spread market. If you think UKIP will secure more than 44.5% of the vote and bet £10 a unit then you win that amount for each percentage point above that level that they achieve. Your risk losing on the same formula for every 1% point they get below 44.5%

This is a relatively low risk introduction to spread betting and I can’t see it being more than 10 points either way. You buy at the higher price and sell at the lower one.



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The Tories the big movers in the first week of GE15 Commons Spread betting

Friday, November 14th, 2014

Those who “bought” CON on Monday are into profit already

It had been a long time coming but the opening of GE15 commons seats spread betting market from Sporting Index was a big moment in the betting build up to next May.

To me it is the finest form of political betting because you “trade” commons seats as if they were stocks and shares and the more you are right the more you win. Alas the more you are wrong the more you lose.

The potential for spread betting is shown vividly by what could have happened to CON buyer between last Monday and today. If they had bought then at the opening level of 279 seats they could have sold this afternoon and made a profit of whatever their unit stake was. This is because the current SELL price is 280 so they’ve made a gain of one unit. They could cash in today and take their profit.

With all spread betting there is a gap between the BUY and SELL and the Tories have more than made that up since Monday.

Clearly there has been a mood change driven mostly by the Ipsos-MORI poll which had LAB 3% behind. Although the direction of travel has been supported by Ashcroft, ICM and YouGov the online poll from Populus had LAB’s lead remaining on 2% this morning.

The Ipsos-MORI poll was helped by the firm’s rigid policy of basing headline numbers on those certain to vote. Amongst all the in the survey LAB and CON were level.

Labour has been a loser as well, surprisingly, as the SNP. Punters don’t quite seem to be buying to the SNP surge narrative.

  • Cautionary note. Spread betting is high risk high reward but the potential for substantial losses are there. Be careful and take notice of the downside risk of any bet.

    Mike Smithson

    Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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    The “any other” government option on this new Betfair market is worth a punt

    Wednesday, November 12th, 2014

    I’m betting on the final option on Betfair’s post GE2015 government market simply because of the massive uncertainty and how unlikely it is that either the red or blue teams will be able to govern on their own.

    To take one example which would make me a winner is the DUP contingent of MPs. There maybe at least eight of them and they could be in a powerful position if current trends continue. They would exact a high price but they could provide a pathway to power.

    Given the Scottish polling then it’s highly likely that the SNP will have many more MPs than the six of 2010. Could they be tempted, for the right deal, to be part of a London government? We don’t know.

    The very fact that the LDs are likely to have far fewer MPs means that they alone might not have the numbers to partner with one of the main parties to create an overall majority.

    UKIP look set to win some seats but that might not be enough for them, on their own, to take the Tories over the line.

    So many possible combinations and so many ways that this bet could be winner.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

    Tuesday, November 11th, 2014

    Another hung parliament is looking even more likely

    The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON and a LAB majority at GE15 on the betting exchange have moved to new lows together.

    This is a odd phenomenon. Normally if the blues collapse then the reds soar and vice versa. Now, with less than six months to go, both appear to have deep problems which will make it harder to put up convincing cases to the electorate next May.

    With LAB it’s the continued angst about the leadership while amongst the Tories it is the opening up yet again of the European fault line that has been so corrosive for nearly a quarter of a century.

      All of this coupled with the rise of UKIP and the Greens make the general election even harder to predict. The public don’t like split parties or apparent weak leadership and we are in a remarkable state of flux.

    The opportunity is surely there for UKIP or the Greens but neither have leaders capable of resonating amongst voters groups outside their own bases.

    Add onto all of this we have the challenges created by the first past the post voting system in each of the 650 constituencies. We could see many MPs being returned with fewer than 30% of the votes in their own seats.

    Watch this space!

    Reminder. Next PB gathering Friday Nov 21 - the day after Rochester. Usual place - the Dirty Dicks pub in Bishopsgate opposite Liverpool Street station in London. From 1830

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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    The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets have LAB 18 seats ahead of CON but well short of a majority

    Monday, November 10th, 2014

    Now the betting can get really serious

    For me political betting is about the spreads where things like commons seats are traded like stocks and share and where the more you are right the more you win.

    For novices. On the morning of election day in 2010 you could have bought LAB at 222 seats with SportingIndex. They got 258 seats which mean that those who’s put place a bet at that level won the difference multiplied by their stake. In this case 36. Alas losses are calculated in the same way.

    For some reason the spread firms have delayed getting their markets up this time and I am absolutely delighted that this popular betting option is now available.

    The interesting, and potentially very rewarding bets, are buying/selling UKIP or SNP seats. I think that both are on the high side but I need to do some more analysis.

    The Monday polls – UPDATED to include ICM



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    Why the Tories have a better chance of retaining Rochester than the headline figures suggest

    Sunday, November 2nd, 2014

    CON leads amongst those who voted for parties on the ballot at GE10

    UKIP’s Survation lead based on NON GE10 voters the most flaky of all

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    Why betting AGAINST UKIP might be value

    Overnight I’ve been laying (betting against) a UKIP victory on Betfair at odds which put the purples at a 92-94% chance.

      Bets, as we know, are assessments of value and NOT predictions and my reading is that at current levels UKIP’s chances are being rated too highly. Just look at the Survation tables above to see where the purples might have problems.

    Just 56% of the Mark Reckless support is from those who voted for parties that were on the ballot at GE10. That compares with 85.2% for the CON candidate. A complication is that 42 people told the pollster that they voted UKIP last time when, as we all know, the party did not contest the seat. Clearly some of them might have lived elsewhere but my guess is that some of their memory of what they did or did not do four years ago is based on their current voting intention.

    We saw at Heywood how non-voters last time included in headline figures can distort things. At that election the polls had more of LAB’s support being of non-GE10 voters than UKIP support.

    The key factors in Rochester are that more of the the 2010 CON vote is going to the Tories than UKIP which is having to rely on non-GE10 voters and those who supported LAB and LD.

    This by election is tighter than it looks.

    Mike Smithson

    2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble