Archive for the 'Betting' Category


The buzzword bingo on Cameron’s conference speech

Sunday, October 4th, 2015

Ladbrokes have a market up on “Which exact words or phrases will Cameron use in his Conference speech?” The normal caveat on this type of betting market needs to reiterated. These sorts of markets usually act as a bookmaker’s bonus found.

However I do like the “You Can’t Trust Labour” at 5/1 as it would fit in with the pattern that the Conservatives are currently engaging in. As Matthew d’Ancona has noted “Corbyn isn’t the target. The Tories hope to destroy Labour for good.”

We saw the during the last parliament and the general election campaign the Conservatives engaging in ruthless adherence to message discipline (which is why “Long Term Economic Plan” is 1/5 in this betting market) I expect that discipline to continue into this parliament.

So via political osmosis the Conservatives hope to contaminate the Labour brand with the public’s early perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn so the damage to Labour will still be there long after Mr Corbyn has departed.

You can access the Ladbrokes market by clicking here.



Antifrank’s 50/1 tip to be next Labour leader

Saturday, October 3rd, 2015

John McDonnell

Antifrank explains why he’s bet on John McDonnell to be the next Labour leader

 Jeremy Corbyn has been leader of the Labour party for just over a fortnight and already there are rumblings about who might replace him.  Some bookies already have markets up and running (though they may well have more value at present for publicity rather than for making money).  Are there any bargains out there?

Jeremy Corbyn may leave office in many years time after a stint as Prime Minister.  If he does, it is likely that almost none of the current favourites will be in the running.  But much more likely, he will leave having failed to win a general election or having been ousted in a palace (of Westminster) coup.

Jeremy Corbyn has made a faltering start on many fronts but he has been making good progress on the one front that I suspect really matters to him: the accumulation of party power.  He has appointed his most trusted ally as shadow Chancellor and he has secured control of the NEC.  He should be able to secure rule changes for appointing his successor, for selecting MPs and for setting policy.  This seems to have been his primary focus in his first weeks as Labour leader.  In his own terms therefore he has been a success.

It is therefore likely that the next leadership election will be conducted under rules which favour the hard left, increasing still further the dominance of the membership and supporter base over the Parliamentary party.  Perhaps the nomination hurdle will be lowered, for example.

The right of the party is probably going to need to move fast if it is to avoid this.  Even then, they is probably doomed to failure.  Jeremy Corbyn arguably has the right to stand for leader without nominations even if challenged.  Even if he chose not to stand again if challenged or stood down of his own volition, it is highly likely that a new hard left candidate would now secure the necessary number of MP nominations.  Any attempt to keep such a candidate off the ballot paper would cause uproar and given the sea change in the party that has already taken place I expect that it would in any case fail.

So it looks highly likely that the next Labour leader will come from the hard left or is someone that the hard left are entirely comfortable with, unless the hard left is discredited in the eyes of the Labour electorate.  I do not expect this to happen.

This means that the current odds look hopelessly wrong to me.  Most of the Labour rightwingers are far too short.  So we should look at the Labour left for our best prices.

One name stands out: John McDonnell.  He is now shadow Chancellor and in that role he has the stature and visibility to develop a public profile over time.  The audience that he needs to cultivate in the Labour electorate are unlikely to be put off by his interesting views on the IRA and he has started as a smoother public performer than his boss.  If he wants to throw his hat in the ring next time, he will be a very serious contender.  His age is probably his single biggest negative but he seems in good health and vigour.

There are at least two ways that he could get the job.  First, Jeremy Corbyn may voluntarily stand down at some point in the near future.  Secondly, the right of the party might seek to oust Jeremy Corbyn (perhaps at a time when his support base is disillusioned by too many compromises) and John McDonnell may be chosen to become the new standard-bearer of the left.

I backed him earlier in the week at 50/1 with Bet365 and you can still back him at 40/1 with Paddy Power (some bookies are still not even listing him).  For someone who at the time of the next leadership election is likely to be the most heavyweight politician in the dominant faction of the wider Labour party, those look fantastic odds.  Take them.



Marco Rubio is getting very close to Jeb Bush in the Republican nominee betting

Thursday, October 1st, 2015

While all the focus in the fight for the Republican nomination has been on the three non politician contenders – Trump, Fiorina and Carson – the big recent betting moves have been at the top of the card

The former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush has yet to sparkle in the campaign and had seen his betting price gradually move out while a lot of the recent money has been going on Marco Rubio. He’s the junior senator from Florida and has come to even greater prominence following the turbulence amongst his party leadership in Congress.

Rubio is 44, a Cuban American who is increasingly being seen by the party establishment as the one best able to take on Hillary next year. He’s been helped by Bush’s lacklustre campaign so far and very poor poll ratings.

It is also being said that he’s starting to eat into Bush’s fundraising attracting key players from the Bush team.

Donald Trump continues to lead in the polls but is nothing like as dominant as he previously appeared to be.

Coming up later this month is the next major TV debate of potential nominees. It is expected that this will further sort out some of the less likely contenders – a list that had already started to whittle down.

I’m on Rubio.

Mike Smithson


Dan Jarvis – the ex-army officer who is betting favourite to succeed Mr. Corbyn

Monday, September 28th, 2015

Dan Jarvis


The buzzword bingo on Mr Corbyn’s conference speech

Sunday, September 27th, 2015

Will Mr Corbyn be a ‘swine’ and mention Dave’s porcine issue?

Ladbrokes have a market up on what exact words or phrases Mr Corbyn will say during his speech at the Labour party conference. I’ve said before these betting markets often appear to exist purely to fund the bookies’ bonus fund and this one appears not to break that pattern.

But I am tempted by the 3/1 on pig. Mr Corbyn faces a difficult conference with splits on several policy areas expected, so he needs something to get the party to unite behind him. Conferences also exist in part to cheer up your own supporters (who need cheering up after the traumatic events of May), so what better way for Mr Corbyn to get the whole party united and cheered up than to openly ridicule David Cameron by referencing that pig allegation.

You can access the Ladbrokes market by clicking here.



Suddenly the polls and the betting move away from Donald Trump

Friday, September 25th, 2015

Check out the above Fox News report


Fiorina now leading the Donald in New Hampshire – where the first full primary takes place

Monday, September 21st, 2015


Just arrived back home from my holiday in Southern France and am only now catching up with the news – so no piggy puns from me!

While Britain has been focussed on the election of Mr Corbyn, and now the Ashcroft Cameron biography, the 2016 White House race has been seeing some dramatic developments

Last week there was the second full TV debate of the Republican party Primary featuring the former CEO of Hewlett Packard, Carly Fiorina, who only just managed to be allowed to take place in the top debate following a change in the rules by CNN and on polling level participants should have been averaging.

Yet by all accounts she certainly seized the opportunity was the one who was deemed to have done best and particularly in clashes with the then runaway leader in the polls, the property billionaire, Donald Trump.

The latest big development has been survey of Republican voters in New Hampshire – the state which traditionally holds the first full primary. As can be seen Carly is now in the lead besting Trump

At this stage in US elections we can expect many changes before the campaign proper takes takes place but the presence of Trump as GOP contender has created far more public interest at this stage and bigger TV debate audiences than ever before.

If Carly got it, and some bookies now have her at 7/1, we could see an all-female election in November next year – assuming Hillary wins the Democratic party race.

Mike Smithson


This should take the pressure off Mr Corbyn

Monday, September 21st, 2015

Just when you thought politics couldn’t get any weirder.

I thought writing “Jeremy Corbyn has been elected Labour leader” would be the weirdest/unlikeliest PB thread I would write this summer. I was wrong, very wrong as this thread features things you’d expect to read in a Tom Knox novel.

Had this biography come out during the election campaign I suspect it might been a ‘game changer’ but now that Dave has confirmed his plans to stand down they maybe less damaging, unless the photographs alluded to in the story emerge (if they exist.) But for the next few days this will be the only story that will dominate British politics. Some will view think it’s a sin what Cameron did whilst at the other spectrum people will think we’ve all done stupid things when young and every body else somewhere in between.

It may backfire on Lord Ashcroft as some may see this as revenge for not being offered the job Cameron promised him. Hell hath no fury like a donor scorned.

I suspect that these sorts of stories will damage the leadership prospects of Cameron’s contemporaries at Oxford Boris Johnson and George Osborne as they will be perceived as guilty by association and pre-held preceptions as any former public schoolboy will attest to. This might benefit the likes of non Oxbridge types like University of Exeter alumnus Sajid Javid, modesty prevents me from naming the PBer who tipped him in September 2014 at 50/1 as the next Prime Minister after Dave.