Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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CON retains its TNS 1% lead, encouraging YouGov ratings news for Ed, and the CON spread lead moves up to 14

Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

The second morning of GE2015

TNS, with its new online polling series, becomes the first internet firm since the Paxo events to report a CON lead, albeit a small one.

The LAB camp, meanwhile, will take some heart from the range of EdM findings featured above. The key thing here is the direction they are going. “Would he be up to the job of being PM?” – was 23 to 59 in February while the latest has that at 30 to 45. The recovery seems to be all coming from LAB voters who now back their man by 79% to 9.

I’ve long taken the view that Ed ratings amongst those who support the party are a good pointer. Labour’s got to maximise its vote on May 7th if it has to have a chance then faith in the leadership amongst party voters is key.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The official campaign Day 1: The line-up for Thursday night and an interesting betting market for the 7 sided event

Monday, March 30th, 2015

The line up on the stage was decided by lots being drawn this morning. It is hard to work out who has come out best. Farage has Clegg on his left and Miliband on his right though he’s some way along from Cameron.

My guess is that Farage would have preferred to be closer, if not next to, Cameron. Sturgeon has done well – directly next to Dave.

Ed is centre stage – that might be good and it might be bad. Cameron will be please to be some places away from Farage. My betting tip, Leanne, is in a good poistion given her main opponent in Wales is Labour.

The SportingIndex betting market is intriguing.

Polling: Populus had LAB & CON level pegging and this afternoon at 4pm we’ll get the weekly Ashcroft poll. There’ll be a round up later.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Leanne Wood could be the 2015 Nick Clegg and at 50-1 might be a good punt to win Thursday’s debate

Sunday, March 29th, 2015

She has the benefit of not being much known outside Wales

Just had a punt with Ladbrokes at 50/1 that Plaid leader, Leanne Wood, will top the quickie polls after Thursday night’s seven-sided debate.

She’ll be fresh to a full national audience, has a pleasant manner, and handles herself well on TV. She’ll also attract less of the hostility that some of the others on the platform are likely to attract.

The rules ensure that she should get equal time with the other six and might just make a good impression. I love 50/1 shots and this might just come up.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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LAB edge a notch up in the “most seats” betting but CON still very strong favourite

Friday, March 27th, 2015

The “debates” haven’t done either Ed or Dave any harm

There’s been a small recovery for LAB in the most seats betting over the past week and since last night’s C4/Sky “debate” that trend has continued.

But Labour has a very long way to go on the markets till it reaches parity with the Tories once again. The blues are expected to make progress during the campaign itself and that is reflected in the betting.

The spread markets were suspended overnight and I’ll update this when the post-debate prices are up.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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A UKIP gain in Dudley N, where the Tories have had candidate troubles, might at 10-3 be a value bet

Thursday, March 26th, 2015

Dudley-North
Lord Ashcroft polls

This is one of UKIP’s best chances to take a LAB seat

We’ve talked a lot about the CON-UKIP battleground but not about the LAB-UKIP one. Certainly the focus of the purples has been on the former but that doesn’t mean there are not opportunities with the latter.

One place I’m hearing positive words about is the party’s campaign in Dudley North. I don’t know whether this is based on polling but I think that it might be.

Team Farage is very keen to make gains from LAB as well as CON and this, I am told, is one of their biggest hopes. Surprisingly my source was more dismissive about UKIP’s chances in Heywood and Middleton where the purples came very close to Labour in last October’s by-election.

The revelations at the weekend and subsequent removal of the Tory candidate are not the main reason why I think it might be a good bet. The campaign is said to be going well.

Looking at the chart above UKIP did very well in 2010 and that’s usually a good indicator.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement

Wednesday, March 25th, 2015

A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on Cameron’s 3rd term announcement

As you’d expect Tom Clarke in the Guardian reports a partisan split in the responses. His report notes that with CON supporters, 56% to 27% believe his move was right. Among LAB supporters, the view was by 50% to 29% – that he got it wrong.

Where Cameron came in for more criticism was over his speculation about who his successor might be.

In the betting, meanwhile, the Tories remain strong favourites to win most seats.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Three years after being touted as Iron Lady 2.0 Liz Truss (33-1) is well placed to succeed Dave

Monday, March 23rd, 2015


New Statesman July 2012

Might the comprehensive school girl from Leeds make it to the top?

Cameron’s comments today about how long he might remain in the job have inevitably set off speculation about who will replace him.

My long term bet, at 50/1, has been Liz Truss – who was one of the first of the class of GE10 to get a place in the cabinet. That was very important stepping stone. She’s now at 33/1.

I’ve long taken the view that whenever Cameron stood down the party would not replace him with another old-Etonian and former member of the Bullingdon Club. My guess is that the party would seek someone with a more modest background and one who looks good is Environment Secretary Liz Truss.

A critical element, as we saw with Maggie, is having the ambition to make it to the top and my reading of Liz Truss is that in the right circumstances she might just put herself forward.

You can just see her breaking through the Theresa May – Boris duopoly to stake a claim.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The great national – constituency betting divide

Saturday, March 21st, 2015

Is this heart over head and if so which is which?

This has been observed on PB before – the great divide between the individual constituency betting markets and the overall GE15 most seats.

As can be seen above there’s now a 30-30 CON-LAB split on the national most seats betting but with the single seats LAB has small lead.

My guess is that many constituency bets are placed on the basis of local knowledge and observations while national bets are much more influenced by the overwhelming media narrative that’s emerged over the past month.

Clearly to win most seats requires victories in individual constituency battles and the Westminster village tends to view this more globally than those on the ground.

I believe that which party wins most seats remains the value bet at current levels. As each week goes by without a decisive turn in the polls to one party the election is a toss-up and on the toss of a coin the option that’s longer than evens is the value bet.

Given the known electoral bias to LAB then even with Scotland the Tories need consistent poll leads of 3%+ across a range of pollsters. That’s not happened yet which is not to say that it won’t.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble