Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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Maybe LAB leadership contests should become an annual event

Friday, July 22nd, 2016



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If the courts remove Corbyn from the ballot then LAB would have lost an electoral liability but gained £4.5m

Thursday, July 21st, 2016

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Next Wednesday a court will hear a case brought by a major LAB donor that the NEC was wrong to have allowed Corbyn to be on the ballot without securing the support of 51 MPs and MEPs.

I’ve no idea about the chances of the case succeeding but Michael Crick has reported that there is some concern within the party about the case.

If this does go forward it would be absolutely mega and it is hard to see what would happen next. No doubt there would be appeals to higher courts and this could prolong the already elongated electoral run-up.

Would Owen Smith as the last man standing be given the job or would it be opened up again. Nobody knows with the modern LAB party.

And what about those who’ve forked out. £25 in order to get the chance of voting? No doubt the hard-pressed party will keep it.

Meanwhile there was a flurry of betting activity after a Tweet from a respected source suggested that the £25 supporters were splitting against Corbyn. He later reversed this saying the incumbent was getting 60/40.

The mere fact of the court case and the uncertainty it creates suggests that Corbyn at a betting chance of 76%+ is value

Whatever a lot is going to happen in the next 8 weeks.

Mike Smithson




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Extraordinary scenes at the GOP convention as Ted Cruz doesn’t back Trump and says “Vote with your conscience”

Thursday, July 21st, 2016

And the Donald is accused of cosying up to Putin

Normally the third day of US presidential conventions is for speaker after speaker to get behind the nominee and make rabble rousing speeches.

Overnight in Cleveland, Ohio, the contender who had run Trump closest in the primaries, Senator Ted Cruz, had a different approach and refused to back the man who 24 hours beforehand had officially become the nominee. Cruz was also speaking in prime time, that part of the night’s proceedings that were getting the most TV time.

Quite why the Trump team had allowed this to happen is not clear but it looks like a mistake.

This came after a huge controversy emerged over Trump’s apparent support for Russia’s Putin and questions about the future of NATO if he got elected in November.

In the betting Hillary had slipped to a 68% chance on Betfair at the start of the week. She’s now at 71%.

Mike Smithson




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A year after his unlikely candidature Trump looks set to finalise the nomination

Monday, July 18th, 2016

WH2016   Google Sheets

Next President

The are similarities between Trump backers & LEAVE ones

Because so much has happened in British politics over the past couple of months we have hardly looked at the White House which looks set to be bwtween Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

Today,in Cleveland Ohio, the Republican campaign starts in earnest with the convention. Although there have been rumblings about a stop Trump move this appears to be very challenging given how successful he was during the primaries. He was the winner by a country mile and it is hard to see anything other than his nomination being ratified.

I’ve just bet on the assumption that the convention will give him a polling boost which is almost always what happens at this stage after party conventions. The prices, as can be seen above, are still attractive. My intent will be to do the opposite just before the Democratic convention and hopefully will see some trading profits.

The thing that strikes me about the coming fight is that Trump is managing to appeal to a section of white America that is very similar to LEAVE on June 23rd. The big dividing line is whether voters had a college education or not. The other split is on gender with women be more like to back Hillary.

Against that we have ethnic minority splits which point to Trump facing big challenges. The Hispanics are very strongly against him.

As we all know the outcome is not based on national vote aggregates but on separate state battles. At this stage the national polls give us a broad indication but as we get closer the swing state polling will become all important.

Both contenders start with huge negatives and very low favourability ratings.

Mike Smithson




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How do you solve a problem like Jeremy Corbyn and his dire polling?

Sunday, July 17th, 2016

New Party

A new political party for Labour MPs who actually want to win a general election seems like the only option.

Speaking as a Tory, every time I remember that Jeremy Corbyn is likely to be Labour leader at the next general election my reaction is similar to every time I remember that there’s a mineral called cummingtonite, it makes me laugh way too much. I suspect the reaction of Labour MPs who want to win the next general election won’t be as sanguine as my reaction when it comes to Corbyn leading Labour at a general election.

Just look at last night’s ComRes polling, whilst this poll was conducted at the start of Theresa May’s honeymoon, it still make pretty grim reading for Labour. By 40% to 36% those who voted Labour at the 2015 general election tell ComRes that May would make a better PM than Corbyn, the over 65s break by nearly 10 to 1 for Mrs May over Mr Corbyn, and Mrs May is ahead as who would make the better Prime Minister with even younger voters.

To put these figures into context as Adam Ludlow of ComRes points out ‘Ahead of [the 2015 general election], Cameron led Miliband on “best PM” by 52% to 31% (21 points). May now leads Corbyn on same measure 58% to 19% (38 points)’

So what do those Labour MPs opposed to Corbyn do? They are trying to oust Corbyn via a leadership contest, but if that fails, what do they do then? Do they keep buggering on and hope eventually the members decide to ditch Corbyn before the general election or do they do something more radical?

If Labour go into the next general election with Corbyn as leader they are risking an extinction level event based on those ComRes figures. Several Labour MPs were tweeting/retweeting those ComRes figures above in despair last night. A split seems inevitable if Corbyn remains leader, whilst Labour might not have much of a history of toppling their leaders they do have a history of splitting, there was the famous split in 1981 that led to the creation of the SDP and the split in 1931, though that split was effectively leader led.

Paddy Power are offering 7/4 Five or more incumbent Labour MPs to register a new political party before the next general election. With the requirement that the bet pays out only if five or more Labour MPs register a new party (it only took two sitting Labour MPs in 1981 to set up a new party) these odds are too short for my liking for me commit substantial sums.

That we’re discussing the odds of Labour party MPs registering a new political party is a damning indictment of Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the Labour party and the direction the party is heading, as Nick Cohen writes in The Observer this morning, Labour has the stench of death.

TSE



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Time to take the idea of President Trump seriously

Saturday, July 16th, 2016

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Real Clear Politics

The Donald is close to being back in the race

What a busy three weeks it’s been. You could almost have forgotten that there was an election on in the most powerful country in the world. However, there is and the Republican Party convention begins on Monday.

Donald Trump hasn’t had the best of build-ups, after his narrow deficit against Hillary in the national polls back in May – after he’d secured the nomination – widened out to around 7% at the back end of last month. That trend’s reversed now though and Clinton holds just a three-point advantage according to the Huffington Post average. That’s not far off the final gap between Obama and Romney, which resulted in a comfortable enough Democrat win.

What’s striking about those averages is that the raw figures are 43-40: 17% are either undecided or are backing some ‘other’ option, figures highly indicative of deep unease about both candidates.

Such a surmise would be entirely accurate. Hillary’s net favourability average rating stands at a record low of -17, with her ‘favourable’ score dropping below 40% for the first time this month. Donald Trump’s net figure is an even worse -25 but has been broadly stable for a month or more, which is why the gap has moved in his direction and, consequently, why Hillary’s lead in the VI polls has dropped.

Those national figures are reflected in the key swing states. The two candidates have traded leads in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, though Clinton tends to have the better of them and again there are high levels of undecideds and supporters of undefined others.

If the election was held today, Hillary would probably win on a low turnout but the election won’t be held for nearly four months and much can change in that time. The domestic and international situation, the vice-presidential nominations, the conventions, the debates, interviews and general campaigning: all will make a difference and of the two, Trump has been the more dynamic but also the more divisive (albeit that that’s a close contest).

Trump has proven himself a highly effective negative campaigner and with Hillary he has a lot of material to work with. As such, his odds – typically about 2/1, but 12/5 with 188bet – still offer value.

David Herdson





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Corbyn the early favourite in the Labour leadership contest – but Owen Smith strong

Thursday, July 14th, 2016

2016 LAB Leadership Contest – Latest from Betfair

Above is updating live betting from the Betfair exchange on the fight for the LAB leadership which has been totally overshadowed by events in the Tory party and the new PM. To recap in case you haven’t noticed

On Monday Angela Eagle held a launch event only to find that almost the entire media walked out in the middle to cover the Andrea Leadsom (remember her?) announcement that she was quitting the CON race.

On Tuesday Labour’s NEC decided to allow Corbyn to be on the ballot without having to find 50 MPs to nominate him.

Yesterday Owen Smith entered the race and has quickly moved to second favourite.

It is very important to note that there are two sets of betting markets – those on the current contest and those on who the NEXT party leader will be. The former features Corbyn the latter doesn’t. So those betting on next leader would find that their wagers still stand even if Corbyn holds on. In the graphic above I focus on the former – Corbyn’s battle to survive.

There’s been quite a spurt of betting on the relatively unknown Owen Smith who appears to have a well organised campaign in place. He is now totally overshadowing Angela Eagle who triggered the challenge in the first place.

Smith has made demanding another Brexit referendum a key policy point. This is something that distinguishes him from Corbyn and could resonate with Labour party members who split 90% for REMAIN on June 23rd. Corbyn’s ambivalence during the campaign has been one of the factors driving the move to oust him.

The list of runners has not been finalised and it could be that there is just one anti-Corbyn contender.

Mike Smithson




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It could be a case of Corbynus interruptus in the Labour leadership contest

Sunday, July 10th, 2016

Is Corbyn going to be prevented from automatically standing in the Labour leadership contest?

One of my underlying assumptions about any attempt to defenestrate Corbyn was that Corbyn would automatically be on the ballot paper in the subsequent contest, but judging by events this morning, that assumption might well be wrong.

What makes this even more intriguing is that we might be set for the most interesting court case for political watchers since Bush v Gore, this morning on The Andrew Marr Show

Jeremy Corbyn has suggested he will go to court if the National Executive Commitee say he can’t go on the ballot paper automatically.

“I will challenge that”, he told the Andrew Marr show. “The rules and my view are absolutely clear. I have taken soundings from lawyers I will be on the ballot paper.”

If it does go to the courts, my only firm prediction is that at some stage all sides will be channelling Dick from Henry VI Part II, and be saying ‘let’s kill all the lawyers.’

There has been speculation that Corbyn might resign and the threshold for nominations would fall from 51 MPs/MEPs to 38 MPS/MEPs, which should be fine for Corbyn as he received 40 MPs support in the confidence vote, but Stephen Bush has shot down that theory.

My betting advice? Keep on laying David Miliband, who is still been, mystifyingly, consistently the third favourite to succeed Jeremy Corbyn, and also lay Angela Eagle, if Corbyn isn’t on the ballot paper, then other Labour contenders, who are more electorally appealing than Angela Eagle will make it to the ballot paper.

TSE