Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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The way’s clear for Carly Fiorina to take on Trump directly in the next GOP debate on September 16th

Wednesday, September 2nd, 2015

CNN changes its rules so she can be at the top table

One of the huge problems for US broadcasters is that so many people have declared themselves as contenders for the Republican party nomination. The current count is about 16 or 17 which clearly is far too big a number for a TV debate to be manageable.

In the first debate, staged by Fox News, there were 2 tiers with those at the top featuring in the main event, and getting the greatest coverage. Amongst the so-called “undercard” debate just one contender stood out – Carly Fiorina the former CEO of Hewlett Packard and the only woman in the race. She got good coverage for her attacks on Donald Trump who, of course, was in the other debate.

The effect was dramatic: polling at 0% or 1% before the event she shot up to seven or eight in some surveys and has even topped the betting favourite, Jeb Bush. Recent polls in Iowa have her holding up a strongish position in what is the first State to decide in the nomination battle.

The next debate from CNN takes place on September 16th and the broadcaster had announced beforehand a strict set of Rules determining who should participate in the top tier based on polling averages before and after the Fox debate. Only problem was that there’ve been so few qualifying polls since the Fox debate that Carly good numbers were not enough when averaged out.

That’s now change and she looks set to be there at the top table in Boston. The coverage this is likely to produce could see her move further in the betting and the polls and I’ve had a bit of a punt.

Mike Smithson





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September opens with Corbyn continuing to dominate the Lab betting but with a little bit more interest in Cooper

Tuesday, September 1st, 2015

Eight more days before voting closes

The LAB leadership Betting has been pretty stable since the YouGov poll last month that had Corbyn on 55% on first preferences. Inevitably he’s become the overwhelming favourite as can be seen by the chart.

The only recent movement has been with Yvette Cooper who was out as a 5% chance last week and had seen a tightening. At the same time there has been a slight easing of the Corbyn price from a dominating 81% implied probability to a 78% one.

It is easy to read too much into these minor adjustments but the shift a bit to Cooper seems to have happened since the Gordon Brown endorsement. Whether the former prime minister has any remaining influence is hard to say.

What we haven’t got any information on is when people voted. The general theory is that voters in elections by mail get their ballot packs into the post very quickly and Corbyn was riding very high when the these started being distributed on August 12th.

There was an unsourced report at the start of last week that 40% of the selectorate then had not voted – a figure that seemed very high. Maybe the fact that voting is taking place during the main holiday season has had an impact.

My betting position remains the same. I’m all green across the board making the same profit whoever is announced as winner a week on Saturday.

Mike Smithson





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Hills starting taking bets on when we’ll see the likes of this again – LAB winning a majority

Sunday, August 30th, 2015

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The Exit poll. 10pm May 5th 2005

Will Corbyn make the red-team unelectable?

AS JEREMY CORBYN’s LAB leader odds are cut to their shortest yet at 2/9 (stake £9 for potential £2 profit) by William Hill, the bookies have also opened a market on when Labour will next achieve an overall majority government – and make between 2026-30 their 5/2 favourite – offering just 3/1 that it will not happen before 2031.

Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe said ‘With so many Labour figures predicting that a Corbyn victory could make the Party unelectable, we decided to start betting on just when the next Labour government will take office, and we don’t see it happening any time soon -probably not for at least fifteen years, in fact’.

Certainly it is hard to see this happening very soon and with the likely permanent loss of most of what were its Scottish strongholds it is hard to see the party recovering to win an overall majority.

As to the bet I can’t see the point of locking up cash for so long.

Mike Smithson





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WH2016: New early state polling has Trump looking even stronger in the battle for the GOP nomination

Wednesday, August 26th, 2015

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The multi billionaire chalks up biggest leads yet in the 2 states with the first full primaries

New polling overnight shows the extent that Donald Trump is dominating the effort to win the Republican party nomination in the so called early states which are first to decide in the nomination race.

After Iowa with its caucuses which involve those who are ready to turn out on a cold winter’s night to attend a political meeting the first real primaries take place in New Hampshire and South Carolina. New polling from these two is very good for Trump.

The real estate magnate turned TV star has opened a 24% lead in New Hampshire, according to Public Policy Polling, with 35% of those saying they are likely to vote supporting him.

The Public Policy Polling numbers are Trump 35, Kasich 11, Bush 7, Walker 7, Carson 6, Christie 4, Fiorina 10, Cruz 4, Paul 3, Rubio 4, Huckabee 0, Perry 2, Jindal 0, Graham 1, Santorum 1

The critical thing is that no other Republican contender comes anywhere near. The governor of Ohio, John Kasich, is the closest at 11%. It is a similar picture of Trump dominance in South Carolina, the second early primary state. Here a Monmouth University poll puts Trump at 30% which is exactly twice that of support in South Carolina, double that of Ben Carson on 15%.

The full South Carolina numbers are Trump 30, Carson 15, Bush 9, Walker 4, Huckabee 3, Graham 4, Rubio 6, Cruz 5, Fiorina 6, Kasich 3, Christie 2, Paul 3, Perry 0, Jindal 0

As can be seen in both these new surveys Jeb Bush the frontrunner in the betting and brother of George, the last Republican to be in the White House, is languishing a long way way behind. Bush has got to do something fairly soon.

If it gets to February and Trump takes these two states then he could be unstoppable.

Meanwhile in the Democratic race..

Mike Smithson





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Exactly five years ago today these were the Ladbrokes then LAB leadership betting prices

Tuesday, August 25th, 2015



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Nineteen days to go and the betting moves back to Corbyn

Monday, August 24th, 2015



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Betting on when the new Labour leader will be announced

Sunday, August 23rd, 2015

William Hill have a market on will the new Labour leader be announced on the scheduled date of Saturday the 12th of September.

For non-Labour supporters, this leadership election is the gift that keeps on giving which has somehow managed to make the Florida 2000 Presidential election mess look like the epitome of competent electoral practice.

Andy Burnham has been the only one complaining about the infiltration of Tories which is indicative of him not winning, someone who was expecting to win wouldn’t be raising this issue.

Last week we had a cat voting in this election while long time members were barred/purged but based on the evidence so far I’d want a bit more than 8/1. PBers might disagree with that assessment, for me it might be worth backing if the favourite Jeremy Corbyn started making similar noises about the election that Andy Burnham has. The other side of the bet does look tempting, a the 5% return in less than three weeks might be the way to go.

You can access the William Hill market here.

TSE



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The big Democratic party WH2016 question remans – “Is Joe Biden going to run”?

Saturday, August 22nd, 2015

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New key state polling suggests he could do better than Hillary

The head of steam that’s building up over a Joe Biden WH2016 bid has received an enormous boost with a range of key state polling from Quinnipac University suggesting that in several battles the Vice-President could do better than Hillary against a range of likely GOP nominees.

This follows an awkward month for the odds-on favourite, Hillary, trying to deal with the email affair as well as seeing her personal favourability decline sharple.

The problem for Biden and any other contender is that the Clinton campaign has just about every possible skilled party organiser and big party donor on its books. It would be a massive task for Biden or anybody to get into the game at this stage.

But as long as Clinton looks weak then the speculation over another serious contender will continue. It might be Biden or it might be someone else.

I started laying Hillary on Betfair when she was 1.21. That’s now 1.44.

Mike Smithson