Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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What the latest private LAB polling has done to the betting

Wednesday, July 29th, 2015

Burnham the big loser after survey had him 3rd

One of the great features now on the Betfair exchange for those who like trading is that with one click you can cash out and instantly get to a position where you are equal on all outcomes.

Yesterday evening just after news of the latest private polling came out there was nearly £10,000 available on Betfair for those who wanted to lay Andy Burnham at the price of 2.1. Effectively this was a bet on all three other contenders at slightly shorter than evens.

Given the Mirror story the price was then out of line with Burnham’s perceived chances. Tissue Price and others highlighted this on the thread and I took as much as I could.

The price then moved out over the next 45 minutes and I cashed out leaving me with a very nice all green book making a pretty good profit whatever the outcome and having no money at risk whatsoever.

I can’t call this race and I doubt if others can with any confidence. Best play for safety.

Mike Smithson





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The LAB leadership betting moves back to the boys

Sunday, July 26th, 2015

40 years after the Tories chose a women LAB looks set to stick with men

It seems the Sunday Times story reported on by TSE in the last thread has prompted a move to Corbyn and Burnham on Betfair who now occupy the two top favourite slots.

The prices on the two women, meanwhile, move out.

When I get my ballot in three weeks time I’ll put the women top and the men bottom who in my judgement are far superior and would serve LAB better than the men on offer.

Mike Smithson





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At some stage the Hillary Clinton email row is going to impact on the nomination betting

Saturday, July 25th, 2015

Surely she’s got less than an 83% chance of becoming the Democratic party nominee?

For those who’ve not been following the WH2016 race some of the shine is coming off Hillary’s nomination chances because of the email row. This relates to the period that she was Obama’s Secretary of State and the allegation that some of her communications were via a private email account that wasn’t subject to the the levels of security that her official account would have had.

The latest developments, see the ABC clip above, has led to some observers describing her campaign to be next president as “faltering”.

What makes this interesting from a betting point of view is that she has become such a massive odds-on favourite to be the Democratic party nominee. Overnight I’ve wagered several hundred pounds laying her on Betfair – effectively betting at longer than 4/1 that she won’t be selected. This is a trading bet not a prediction.

There’s a very long way to go anyway until the primaries start and a lot can happen in the meantime. Potential contenders who’d held back because they felt that Hillary was a foregone conclusion might start to reconsider. In the past day there’s been some speculation about the Vice-President, Joe Biden, and his price saw some movement.

Mike Smithson





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Latest from the Betfair exchange on the LAB leadership

Friday, July 24th, 2015

Cooper & Corbyn moving in: Kendall & Burnham edging out



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Liz Kendall said to be under pressure to pull out of the race in an effort to stop Corbyn

Thursday, July 23rd, 2015

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Could she could back Cooper in return for being Shadow Chancellor?

One immediate effect of the YouGov Labour leader poll is, as the Times is reporting on its front page this morning, that pressure is being put on Liz Kendall to pull out of the race in order to make it easier to stop Corbyn. According to the report:-

An ally of Ms Cooper called on Ms Kendall to make a sacrifice similar to that made by Gordon Brown, who stood aside to allow Mr Blair a clear run in Labour’s leadership race. “The moderates came together to make sure they didn’t split the vote in 1994 — something like that needs to happen again.

A source close to Ms Kendall rejected any suggestion she withdraw. Others said collusion to deny Mr Corbyn could backfire. “We don’t want Liz pulling out, and then Corbyn blaming his defeat on tactical voting by Blairites.”

One scenario that’s being tallked about is that Liz has/could do a deal with Yvette Cooper to endorse her with the suggestion that in the event of a Cooper victory Kendall would become shadow chancellor.

What the veracity of that is I don’t know but my sense from watching last night’s Iain Dale LBC leadership debate is that something could be in the offing. Kendall appeared very subdued without her usual punchiness while Cooper was the most animated that I’ve seen her at any stage during the prolonged campaign.

Certainly looking at the dataset from yesterday’s YouGov poll Cooper would be by far the biggest beneficiary of a Kendall withdrawal. Of the small sub-set of Kendall backers two thirds make Cooper their second preference with just a quarter opting for Burnham.

The battle would then be between Burnham and Cooper for who would make, according to the polling, the final split with Corbyn.

On Betfair the Cooper price has tightened. If Kendall did pull out endorsing Yvette then the Cooper odds would surely tighten.

Mike Smithson





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YouGov poll finds Corbyn beating Burnham

Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

This explains the recent price moves

TSE



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After a difficult couple of days Burnham still very strong favourite

Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

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Market update



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Donald Trump now topping a poll in race for the Republican nomination

Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

Should we take this seriously or is it just a passing fad?

With all the focus on Labour’s trials and tribulations as it goes through its leadership election we have not really focused on the coming fight for the White House in 2016 which almost certainly will be the biggest political painting event of next year.

On the Democratic Party side things look relatively settled with Hillary Clinton the odds on favourite. The Republican battle looks to be the most interesting with several names coming in the latest being the property billionaire and TV presenter, Donald Trump.

New polling featured in the clip above suggests that he is doing very well and has even the potential to win the prize. I find it hard to take his bid seriously and his comments about John McCain in the second clip reinforce that view.

At the stage polling can often be skewed to the best known which is what might be happening here.

William hills currently have him add 28/1 for the nomination which just might be a good punt.

The strong favourite for the Republican nomination is the brother of George Bush, ex Florida Governor, Jeb Bush.

Can Trump managed to get himself into a situation where his bid is taken very seriously? I’m not so sure but he might. American elections can operate very strangely.

Mike Smithson