What does this say about Dave’s current position

Full details of the “Will Cameron face aleadership challenge?” betting from PaddyPower. bit.ly/I8PkIO See. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013

There’s definitely “something in the air” about the Conservatives at the moment and I’m one of many, I guess, who’ve had a punt on him facing a leadership challenge before GE2015.

My sense is that if it did get to this stage then he’d lose – but I’ve covered this eventiality with a smaller bet at the 5/1 that he’ll face a challenge and survive.

We are now just over 23 months from the GE2015 and, no doubt, many of those Tories who won seats in 2010 are starting to get a bit anxious, especially when they work out the implication in their individual seats of the growing Ukip shares.

If we look at the form book the Tories do bring down leaders they fear will be an electoral liability.

Mike Smithson

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Great value bet at Stan James. Cameron 10/1 to be first leader to leave pre-general election. Dave’s most at risk. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

Alas good prices don’t last long. Since I got on yesterday the odds on this bet have now tightened to 6/1. Last October I placed a 7/1 bet with William Hill that Cameron would be the first of the three leaders to go. That, unlike the Stan James bet, is not restricted to it happening pre-general election.

The front page of tomorrow’s Daily Telegraph will add to the pressure on the CON leadership. See.. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2013

To add to the febrile political atmosphere we now have this back at Westminster. goo.gl/09A0M twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 20, 2013

Mike Smithson

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I’ve just put a bet on at Ladbrokes on 2013 general election at 16/1. Hard to see how the CON & LDs can divorce without early election.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013

A 16/1 bet equates to a 5.8% chance of a 2013 general election. I think chances might be higher. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 16, 2013

Coalition breakup = Early general election

The main story in the Times this morning is a report that preparatory work is going on in Downing Street to deal with the consequences of a break-up of the coalition.

The report seems to be based on wishful thinking that it would be the LDs who would want to close it down not the Tories. Fat chance. It is simply not going to happen that way. The yellows are in this for the duration and if there is a break-up then Cameron and his team will be the instigators.

@msmithsonpb To avoid an election when they’re polling in single digits

— Toby Young (@toadmeister) May 17, 2013

A key part of the story is that post divorce the LDs would allow the Tories to carry on with a supply and confidence arrangement. That is naive in the extreme. Clegg and his party would be getting all the negatives of keeping the blues in power without anything in return. The LDs would take gamble of an early election.

If the Tories want to end the coalition there will be NO supply and confidence arrangement with the LDs.

The most likely outcome would be that EdM would put down a vote of confidence which all the 57 LD MPs would support.

The blues might find a way of securing DUP backing for the vote – but at a heavy price. Thereafter it is hard seeing how the Tories could support their numbers.

The LAB-LD grouping could also expect backing from George Galloway, the Green, and Plaid. Those who watched the National Theatre’s live broadcast of “This House” last night will appreciate the machinations that would be involved.

My view is that a coalition breakup instigated by the Tories would lead to an immediate general election. My 16/1 bet on a 2013 general election might just be a winner.

Mike Smithson

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Last week in a thread on which party would come out with most votes at next year’s Euro elections Richard Nabavi suggested that the best value bet was the 10/1 which is still available from Ladbrokes on the Conservatives.

His reasoning was that these are a set of elections where the Tories have traditionally done well irrespective of how they’ve been performing in national Westminster polls.

Even, as the interactive chart above shows, in the dark days for the party in 1999 when Blair’s Labour was at its peak, the blues won nationally on votes. In 2004 it was the same and, as expected, they did well last time out in 2009.

Every set of EU elections since the party list voting system was introduced has seen the Tories come out on top. Why should 2014 be any different?

The betting favourite for next year is Ukip which has managed to seize the opportunity created by the party list voting system. But isn’t there a strong possibility that they are now going to be subject to much greater scrutiny. They’ve won lots of council sea and they now need to perform as elected representatives.

As we are seeing at the moment the backgrounds of those who won on May 2nd are being examined closely by their opponents and unfortunate blogs, Facebook entries and Tweets are being unearthed all the time.

Also the EU narrative is changing and who knows what it will look like in a year’s time?

All betting is a gamble but my view is that the Tories have a better than 9% chance of doing it. The current price is a good bet.

Mike Smithson

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Michael Gove’s claims about plots to overthrow Clegg haven’t impacted on the betting.Tim Farron still 5/2 favourite twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 13, 2013

He had a good Reynard-gate and Vote2013 aftermath

After Michael Gove’s little mischief yesterday in which he talked of a plot to oust Nick Clegg it is probably a good moment to look at the Lib Dem succession.

The electoral process involves the party’s MPs making the nomination but the decision being down to a postal ballot of the members.

There was a lot of talk last year about Vince Cable and if there had been a vacancy in 2012 then he’d have stood a good chance. But there wasn’t and things move on.

I’m not sure that Vince, now 70, would run. He’d have made a good care-taker with another contest taking place after the general election.

In the past I’ve been sceptical of Tim Farron’s chances because he’s not a minister. Now I think that’s less important and he’d be the one most likely to garner support from the membership.

As party President he’s been very much the public face and has earned the respect of many for the blunt and straightforward way he handled the Reynard case and the recent local elections.

Mike Smithson

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EdM and Dave almost have the chamber to themselves twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013

@dpjhodges , who writes almost exclusively on EdM, has agree to double up our wager on which’ll get most seats @ GE2015. He says CON, me LAB

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2013

The initial bet was for £50 – a straight even money wager. Now Dan and I have agreed to raise that to £100.

Labour don’t even need to win a majority to win most seats. It is also possible for them to be a couple of points behind in overall national vote share and still have more MPs.

Dan has consistently argued that Ed Miliband is not up to the task and will, increasingly, be found to be wanting in the run-up to polling day. That’s his view and he’s prepared to back it up with cash.

I live in a super-marginal – the 20th target on Labour’s hit list and even though it’s two years to polling day Labour is being very active. There’s little sign of a CON campaign. If the blues lose Bedford then LAB is almost there.

Mike Smithson

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Tomorrow it will be exactly 6 months since @nadinedorriesmp was suspended as a CON MP. Farage is making overtures. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2013

It’s starting to appear “nasty” that the whip has not been restored to @nadinedorriesmp .

— Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 4, 2013

It’s time to “Free the Mid-Bedfordshire One”

In 2008 the county council in Bedfordshire was abolished so it wasn’t one of the traditional shire counties where there was voting last Thursday.

If there had been elections I’ve little doubt that it would have followed the pattern of elsewhere in eastern England with Ukip making big inroads – particularly in the area covered by the Mid-Bedfordshire parliamentary constituency which, of course, is represented at Westminster by Nadine Dorries.

Exactly six months ago today Nadine was suspended from the parliamentary Conservative party for her much publicised trip to Australia to take part in the TV programme – “I’m a celebrity get me out of here.”

That suspension is still in force and speculation has been revived about her switching to Ukip. Farage was quoted yesterday welcoming such a move which, if it happened now, would add to the ongoing positive narrative about the party.

Over the weekend senior party figures like Lord Ashcroft, David Davis and the editor of ConHome , Paul Goodman, have joined the clamour for Nadine’s punishment to be lifted.

Davis bitingly contrasted Nadine’s treatment with old-Etonian, Jesse Norman, who rebelled and then got promoted. Nadine, brought up on a Merseyside council estate, is still being hung out to dry.

If Nadine did join the purples she could do immense damage to the Tories. She’s a fierce critic of Cameron and being UKIP’s one MP would provide a platform for ongoing attacks on the PM.

Her constituency is just five minutes from where I live and I know it well. My reading is that she’d have a good chance of holding it for UKIP against an official Conservative candidate at the general election.

This has betting implications. There was an active market on whether she’d switch before the election and, of course, it impacts on how many, if any, MPs Ukip would have.

Mike Smithson

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South Shields: LAB punters getting slightly nervous on Betfair with price edging out from 1/99 to 1/25.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2013

May 2nd 2013: The day could be a turning point in British politics

Talking with party activists of all colours last night whose judgement I respect I believe that Ukip are set to do better in today’s local elections than the predictions.

Remember that in local by-elections in principal authorities that UKip have chalked up three gains from the Tories since the start of March. This followed a period of two years when they made no by-election gains at all.

This suggests a real momentum and a growing activist base that is charged up.

In today’s other big election in South Shields I’ve got a 6/1 bet that their Westminster by-election share could be in the 30-40% range which might just come off. My other punts at evens that they’ll beat the Tories for second place look like bankers and these are covering bets of 25/1 of victory in the by-election.

One thing that’s clear is that the purples are doing particularly well with working class voters – the national polling points to serious inroads with the C2DE’s of which there are many in South Shields.

Unlike Eastleigh where there were five published polls there have been no surveys in David Miliband’s old seat. But the large moves in the national polls and that lone ComRes locals survey point to a big outcome which I define as being their biggest by-election vote share ever.

So what are your predictions? Record them in the thread below.

Mike Smithson

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