Archive for the 'Betting' Category

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On the eve of the CON primary result a UKIP donor funded ComRes Rochester poll has the purples 13% ahead

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2014

UKIP 43: CON 30: LAB 21: LD 3: GRN 2

Th big by-election news tonight which has already been anticipated by the betting markets is a new UKIP donor funded poll of Rochester & Strood in the Daily Express.

The news is not good for the Tories and very good for the purples. The poll has Farage’s party in a better position than it was in the Mail/Survation poll two weeks ago when UKIP had a 9% lead.

Amongst 2010 CON voters ComRes found 57% supporting the blues and 40% Reckless – almost exactly the same proportion as in the earlier Survation poll. Reckless is relying for his support on ex-LAB & LD voters. But the biggest source of new support for UKIP are those who didn’t vote at the last general election with 28% of the UKIP share coming from them.

Some other pollsters would mark the views of this group down sharply because non-voting support from the previous general election is the most flakey of all.

This is how the non-2010 voters split.

Clearly this puts the purples in a strong position just four weeks from polling day and there’ll be a huge amount of pressure on whoever wins the primary to claw some of this back.

With four weeks to go I’m expecting a lot of polling. Eagerly awaited is a survey from Lord Ashcroft.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Rochester and Strood is being presented as solely a CON-UKIP battle – but what about Labour?

Wednesday, October 22nd, 2014

Could the Kickboxer kick CON and UKIP ass?

After Labour’s pitiful performances at the Heywood and Newark by-elections it is easy to dismiss their chances entirely in the Rochester and Strood by-election on November 20th. The national party has not given the impression that this is a priority and recent form does not bode well.

But in the only polling that’s been done, the Survation survey, Labour was holding up pretty well and if you strip out of the Reckless vote in that poll the non-GE2010 voters then the red team was within a couple of points. The polling is distorted because a large slab of UKIP voters say they voted that way at GE10 when, of course, there wasn’t a UKIP candidate in the constituency.

What has impressed me is the quality of the LAB candidate there, Naushabah Khan, who comes over more effectively than either Mark Reckless or the two contenders in the Tory primary. She describes herself as a commuter and a “Kickboxer”. In terms of presentation skills she reminds me of UKIP’s Diane James in Eastleigh who, it will be recalled, pushed CON into 3rd place. She also seems to have built up an energetically youthful activist base which is a key part of being a PPC.

Also in its previous form as Medway the seat was a very tight marginal which Bob Marshall-Andrews clung onto by 213 votes at GE05. There’s a history of strong organisation which suggests very good data particularly of its support base in the past. This is a massive asset.

The challenge, of course, is that Labour is up against the very well resourced UKIP and CON machines who are flinging everything at it.

I don’t think that Labour will win but they just might and for betting purposes I’m not ruling it out. If you use the Betfair exchange then lay UKIP or CON. The odds are not that much different from the back price and you’ll be covered if by any chance Naushabah does pull it off.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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If the Tories get a good turnout in the Rochester all postal primary it’ll be a pointer to the by-election itself

Tuesday, October 21st, 2014

But what is good – this is a by-election first?

On Thursday we’ll get the results of the unique all postal primary that the Tories have carried out to choose their Candidate for the November 20th Rochester & Strood by-election. This is the first time that any party has chosen a by-election candidate in this manner and for me the key number will be how many of the 70k+ electors in the constituency have actually participated.

Only two such primaries have been carried out before. At the first at Totnes in Devon in 2009 ahead of the 2010 General Election 24.6% bothered to fill in the postal ballot forms and return them. A month or so later in Gosport the turnout was 17.8%. The big differences between Rochester and those two are that the process is taking place over such a shorter period and, of course, turnouts in by-elections themselves are almost always lower than at general elections.

    Taking everything into account if participation in Rochester is in the 15-20% region then the blues can be pleased.

What the primary process has done is to increase awareness of the election and the two contenders. Whoever wins, of course, is fighting the incumbent, Mark Reckless, who has had huge media coverage following his defection to UKIP. There can be little doubt that the massive success that Douglas Carswell had in Clacton will have provided a boost to Reckless and his party. The momentum generally had been with UKIP since as we’ve seen from record Westminster polling shares for the party.

Ladbrokes and SkyBet have been operating a markets on the primary and Kelly Torworth, the one on the right in the picture, is odds on favourite.

All the counting and election processing had been carried out by the Electoral Reform Society. The turnout will be a pointer to how much interest the Tories have been able to generate in their campaign.

One thing’s for sure – the turnout level will be higher than the South Yorkshire Police Commissioner election taking place next week.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Andy Burnham rules out standing for the LAB leadership – get your money on Andy Burnham

Sunday, October 19th, 2014

EdM’s successor? Could be

In the closing seconds of his interview on the Marr show this morning the shadow health secretary and 2010 leadership contender, Andy Burnham, was asked if he’d rule out standing the the job “in due course”.

His denial was, to me, less than convincing.

He’s come on a lot since his first leadership bid and I was quite impressed with the way he handled the interview.

Both Ladbrokes and PaddyPower have him at 6/1. If EdM does stumble on the the way to May 7th or in the aftermath Burnham looks a good bet.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Rochester punters unmoved by the CON primary and Cameron visit: UKIP still a 77.5% chance

Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Is Reckless right to complain about the CON primary?

We are just five weeks away from the Rochester & Strood by-election and today David Cameron visited the area to meet local businesses as well as the two women competing to be the CON candidate.

Last night the Tories staged hustings and voting papers have now gone out by post to every single elector in the constituency, not just Tories, so they can vote by post on who should represent the blue team. It will be next Thursday before the party is able to announce which one has got it.

    Meanwhile a legal argument has started about the status of the primary process and election expenses. Will all or part of the costs have to be set against the overall limit that’s imposed on candidate during elections? The CON argument is that official expenses are triggered once the candidate is chosen. UKIP believe this is unfair because details about the two Tory contenders are included in the mail-pack that has gone out with the ballot forms.

UKIP and Mark Rekless have to be careful about how they handle this. As C4′s Michael Crick writesit’s hard to complain about a move which seemingly makes the process more democratic”.

Meanwhile punters remain unimpressed. UKIP remains a 77.5% chance on Betfair to win.

What will really set the betting alive is a new poll, perhaps from Lord A, in which the candidates are named. That’s probably a couple of weeks off.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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And so to Rochester & Strood which has become a “must win” for both the Tories and UKIP

Monday, October 13th, 2014

Will the CON all postal primary get them into the game?

Inevitably UKIP go into the upcoming Rochester & Strood by-election with their tails up high. Clacton, and even more so, Heywood have given the party the “big mo” which they hope will carry over to the next contest.

Although the only public poll had them 9% ahead the demographics of the constituency make it a much bigger challenge than Clacton. Carswell, as the massive early poll leads showed, never looked beatable and the Tories from the start treated it as a damage control operation.

In R&S this will be very different. The blues want to stop the rot here and have already shown their intent by announcing a full postal primary to choose their candidate in which every single elector will get a ballot pack and be able to vote. This is a very costly exercise which the blues hope will give them an edge.

    The intention is that the primary will raise the profile of whoever wins who will be presented to the constituency as the “people’s choice”.

Then the campaign will take on the intensity that we saw in Newark in June when for the first time in 25 years the party successfully held onto a seat in a by-election while in government.

Already this is being talked up as a make or break moment for Cameron with suggestions from the Speccie’s James Forsyth at the weekend that the PM could face a leadership challenge if the battle is lost.

This is also massive for Nigel Farage. For a failure by Mark Reckless to retain the seat would seriously dent UKIP’s remarkable surge and make it far less likely that other CON MPs will jump ship.

Whichever way it goes R&S will, have an impact on GE15.

LAB appears to have decided not to take this too seriously and, like in Newark, not to put the resources in. The LDs expect their usual lost deposit.

The betting is very much on UKIP which I think has moved in too far. I’ve put a bit on the Tories.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Guest Slot from Peter the Punter: Matthew and Peter Go To The Seaside – with a Marf cartoon

Wednesday, October 8th, 2014

Clacton doesn’t look like being the most exciting of elections.

Matthew Shadwick [Shadsy] of Ladbrokes was kind enough to invite me along on a visit to the scene of one of tomorrow’s by-elections. I wondered whether he might need help collecting a flood of money, or maybe he just wanted some company while he stood outside the firm’s shop on Pier Avenue with his board optimistically offering odds of 1/50 UKIP, 14/1 Conservative and 33/1 Labour. We’d arranged to meet at 10.30 am. I got there at midday and still felt it was an hour too soon. There was a queue of about a dozen people, but that was for the bus. The driver was taking rather more money than Shadsy.

On the way I’d asked directions from a couple carrying UKIP boards. No, they couldn’t help; they were strangers here too. The locals looked disinterested. Even the seagulls looked bored.

Over a leisurely lunch we discussed the contrast with Newark where there was a lively atmosphere and a steady stream of (ultimately unsuccessful) UKIP backers. Perhaps the re-election of Douglas Carswell in UKIP colours is just too much of a foregone conclusion. Perhaps too little rides on the outcome. Perhaps the voters of Clacton just don’t like that kind of thing. They couldn’t even be tempted by Shadsy’s generous offer of 25/1 against Charlotte Rose [Independent] to beat the LibDems. “I mean, if she can’t beat the LibDems, who can she beat?”

We caught sight of the Sky TV crew, leaving early. A local MP, down in support of Giles Watling [Conservative], kindly spared us some time but was unable to offer any insights, or even a bet. Labour was nowhere to be seen.

On the way home I passed the UKIP offices, festooned with Carswell banners. It looks like tomorrow will be a coronation. What will be his vote share? Ladbrokes go 11/8 against 50-60%, 5/2 60-70%, 11/4 40-50%. Yesterday gave no clues as to where the value lies.

Turnover at Under 50% might be a bet. Shadsy will give you evens. I see from my betting notes that I went for Over, back in August when the market, like the weather, was a good deal warmer.

All right, we all make mistakes.

Peter the Punter



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Lord Ashcroft’s national poll joins YouGov in having the Tories ahead after their conference

Monday, October 6th, 2014

As ever, I’d caution about reading too much into polling conducted during and in the immediate aftermath of conferences, particularly with the Lord Ashcroft national poll, which has shown more volatility than most other pollsters. However the Blues will be delighted to have another pollster showing them ahead following their conference.

Additionally Lord Ashcroft has polled on the Heywood & Middleton by-election. Labour will be delighted as with Survation, that their share of the vote is increasing and it is looking like a comfortable hold.

As antifrank noted on the previous thread “As in Newark, Lord Ashcroft’s by-election poll shows both Labour and UKIP at lower levels than Survation and the Conservatives higher.” Which might be something to bear in mind when looking at the Survation Rochester & Strood poll that had UKIP 9% ahead. Hopefully Lord Ashcroft will conduct a poll in Rochester & Strood soon.

TSE

Meanwhile for those of us betting on Alistair Carmichael as next out of the cabinet/the current cabinet not lasting until the General Election.