Archive for the 'Betting' Category


Betting on will Donald Trump accept the election result

Sunday, October 23rd, 2016


Paddy Power have a market up on will Donald Trump accept the result of Presidential election, the exact wording of the bet is ‘Donald Trump to publicly confirm he accepts the result of the poll at the post election rally.’

Given his comments from earlier on this week, the only way I can see Trump accepting the result of the election is if he wins it, so you’d be better off betting on him winning the White House Race where you can get odds of around 5/1. But I’m going for the 11/4 on him not accepting it, it feels like a ‘nailed on’ bet* for me, as it would require him to appear magnanimous, a quality he has hitherto failed to display during his Presidential election campaign, stretching all the way back to the primaries.

My presupposition is that were Trump to lose, his concession speech will be the ‘highlight’ of election night as I expect in defeat Trump will have a meltdown that will be like the Three Mile Island accident meets Richard Nixon’s concession speech of 1962.


*Other bets I have considered to be ‘nailed on’ in recent times include a hung Parliament in 2015 and Donald Trump not to be the Republican Party’s Presidential nominee in 2016.


White House race turnout betting

Thursday, October 20th, 2016

Paddy Power and Betfair have markets up on the turnout on the White House race, I’m not sure what the level of turnout will be, I can see given the polarising nature of the candidates, and especially with the fervour of Trumpers, with 40% of Trump supporters in Florida telling PPP that they thought Hillary Clinton was a demon turnout will be up from the 2012. Another boost for turnout on both sides should be Trump saying in last night’s debate that Roe v. Wade will be overturned ‘automatically’ if he’s elected.

On the flip side, with the apparent GOP establishment going on strike against Trump, and both major party candidates having dire personal ratings, I can foresee turnout going below 50%, I’m not sure there’s any value left in this market, but if I was forced to have a bet, I’d go for 49.99% or below, which is available at around 6/1 ish because as you can see in the chart above, US Presidential turnout levels are significantly lower than we’re used to in the U.K for general elections.



Ahead of the final debate Betfair gives Trump just a 16% chance of being next President

Wednesday, October 19th, 2016


The debate starts 2am UK time.



My 100/1 tip to win the 2020 London Mayoral election

Sunday, October 16th, 2016

My betting tip if Sadiq Khan is hors de combat from the next Mayoral race.

Assuming the unelected PM doesn’t change her mind, the next general election will be on the same day as the London Mayoral election, Sadiq Khan has a choice to make, will he stand as London Mayor in 2020 or will he stand as an MP in 2020?

I know some say Sadiq Khan would be better of waiting until 2025 to become an MP again, but he might conclude, not without merit, that by 2025 there might not be a Labour party worth saving, 2020 would be the best and only time for him to win the Labour leadership. Of course there is the possibility with the current make up the Labour membership and the trend of the NEC becoming more in Corbyn’s image, that Khan might be replaced as Labour’s candidate to be Mayor.

So if not Sadiq Khan who could be the Labour nominee? Step forward the former Labour and Respect MP, George Galloway, his brand of politics seems to be more in tune with the current Labour party, a rapprochement with a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party looks plausible. Galloway is definitely on team Corbyn, during the recent Labour leadership contest, he tweeted ‘If you try to bring down Corbyn you’ll have to get around me first. Me and millions like me. Real Labour.’

It isn’t just to the hard left George Galloway appeals to, who can forget when George Galloway was the guest of honour at Grassroots Out rally during the campaign to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union, Galloway does have an appeal across the political spectrum, so you can see why a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party may wish to see Galloway as their candidate for London Mayor.

At the time of writing George Galloway was 100/1 with Ladbrokes to win the Mayor of London race in 2020, I’ll be placing a small stake, hopefully by May 2020 people will be saluting my courage, my strength, and my indefatigability for proposing such a bold tip as George Galloway winning the London Mayoralty in 2020.


P.S. – In an alternate universe George Galloway’s the current leader of the Labour party, had he not been expelled from the Labour party in 2003, he might have been the the left wing candidate that Labour MPs lent nominations to, to widen the leadership debate in 2015, instead of Jeremy Corbyn.


Greater love hath no man than this, that he lay down his country for his career.

Saturday, October 15th, 2016

Boris wrote that Brexit could lead to economic shock, Scottish Independence, and Russian aggression 2 days before he backed Brexit.

For the last few years I generally kept on advocating that Boris should be laid for the Tory leadership, that advice isn’t going to change for the next Tory leadership contest. It will be very easy to portray Boris as someone who puts his own ambitions ahead of the best interests of the country, that is something that should fatally damage his chances of ever leading his party or country.



With the court challenge to Theresa May’s Royal Prerogative plan starting the latest Article 50 trigger date betting:

Thursday, October 13th, 2016

Although nothing on the scale of EURef or WH2016 the biggest home political betting market at the moment is on when Article 50 will be invoked thus triggering the formal process of the UK exit from the EU.

Mrs. May’s plan, which she stated again yesterday, is for this to happen by the end of March 2017. Her desire is to avoid Parliament having a say in the triggering decision stating there her authority is what happened on June 23rd.

The initial obstacle to avoiding MPs and peers having a say is a court case which has started in the High Court this morning. Clearly there is concern that this could delay the process for quite a long period. You could see all sorts of amendments being put forward and the government probably does not have enough MP support to impose a guillotine motion that would set a timetable.

I cannot see Parliament blocking the move rather there would be lots of amendments and efforts to set conditions for the invocation.

Even, as I think is likely, the courts rule in favour of the Royal prerogative there could still be difficulty at Westminster.

I was all green in this betting market but I’ve switched in the past few days to back the post July 1 2017 option. I’m on this at an average of about 8/1.

Mike Smithson


Punters continue to desert Trump as do more leading Republicans

Wednesday, October 12th, 2016


The embattled GOP nominee is continuing his fight even though leading Republican figures are in effect disowning him. He’s now as likely to focus his anger on his own party as Hillary Clinton. He’ been particularly venomous about the leading Republican in Congress, Paul Ryan.

Inevitably the betting has continued to move away from him. Just 16 days ago he was a 35% chance on the Betfair exchange – that’s now down to just over 15%.

    But his following remain enthusiastic and fired up and you can see a post-November 8th scenario when the party leadership is seen as having betrayed the legitimately elected nominee.

For the Republicans the worry is the impact Trump will have on the other elections particularly the fiercely contested battle for it to retain control of the Senate.

At the moment I’m trying to identify new betting opportunities.

Mike Smithson


The chances of Mrs May getting her own way on the Article 50 revocation date are less than 78%

Tuesday, October 11th, 2016


By-passing parliament is going to be tricky

A massive political battle is brewing on the PM’s declaration at last week’s CON conference that she’ll invoke Article 50 to extract the UK from EU in March. As can be seen from the chart of Betfair betting above punters have moved sharply to the Jan-June 2017 option which reached an 81% chance and is now starting to slip a bit.

All betting is about assessing the chances of something happening and comparing it with the betting odds available. It is not about making predictions and my view on Article 50 is that the hurdles facing the PM are growing and meeting Mrs. M’s March target might not be as easy as the betting markets currently think.

Firstly there’s the serious possibility of legal intervention. Secondly, on this issue at least, Corbyn’s Labour is getting its act together with the DPP turned MP, Keir Starmer, now in charge of the BREXIT brief. Even some LEAVE CON MPs are now demanding that parliament should not be by-passed.

I thought that May made a mistake by being so specific in her conference speech. If the March 2017 date isn’t met it will be seen as a big personal defeat for her.

The huge decline in the value of pound and the threats of some US firms to leave the City of London are adding to the pressure.

Mike Smithson