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Sunday Polling Roundup

August 25th, 2013

There are three polls out.

First up is the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times

 

 

Second up there’s the usual fortnightly poll by Opinium for the Observer (Also note the responses to fracking and nuclear power stations, which shows we’re a nation of NIMBYs)

 

As the Observer notes, fitting in with the YouGov pattern on Ed’s ratings

Two weeks ago Labour’s lead slipped by three percentage points compared with the two weeks before, possibly the result of negative media coverage of Miliband’s performance and a lack of energy at the top of the party.

While the lead is now steady, the decline in Miliband’s net approval ratings looked more alarming in poll after poll. Four weeks ago Miliband’s net rating was -22. Now it stands at -31.

The decline is not dramatic but gradual. A fortnight ago 21% said they approved of Miliband’s performance, against 47% who said they disapproved. Now just 19% approve and 50% disapprove.

David Cameron’s personal ratings have dropped since mid summer when they were around -15%. Now 32% approve of his performance against 50% who disapprove, leaving a net rating of -18, while 13% approve of Nick Clegg’s leadership and 60% disapprove, giving the Lib Dem leader a net score of -47.

The most interesting poll (and I suspect the one that will be the most commented upon poll) is the Wisdom poll conducted by ICM for the Sunday Telegraph.

 

The changes from their last Wisdom Index Poll from a fortnight ago is the Tories down one, with Labour, the Lib Dems and UKIP all unchanged.

As ICM have noted before “At the 2010 GE [the Wisdom Index] out performed every other poll”

Also this polling shows bad figures for Ed Miliband personally,the number of people who think he is doing a “good job” as Labour leader is at an all-time low. 21% say he is doing a good job, compared to 32% who said the same about Dave, and 17% for Nick Clegg.

(Note these are absolute figures, and not net figures)

Martin Boon of ICM compared Miliband’s leadership to Iain Duncan Smith’s spell in charge of the Conservatives.

“Ed Miliband is not in a good place. Only a fifth of voters are satisfied with his performance,” he said. “It’s difficult to imagine that things could be any worse for him, or indeed how he can succeed in turning the public around.

“He is becoming Labour’s IDS and if it carries on like this it’s hard not to think that we’ll be seeing Conservative polling leads very soon.

Overall for Labour supporters, all three polls show Labour leads, two out of the three polls show, even with Ed’s ratings, Labour still enjoy a 6-7% lead.

For the Blues, the ICM poll would give grounds for optimism, as it is the second ICM poll showing the Labour lead in the 1-2% range, but polling at 30% isn’t ideal for retaining power in 2015, but Ed’s ratings across all pollsters, from Mori to these three, could give grounds for optimism, we will see if Martin Boon’s observation will become reality.

No wonder that Dame Tessa Jowell has said Public criticism of Ed Miliband’s leadership by senior Labour figures is creating an impression of “toxic disunity” and risks handing the next election to the Tories

 

TSE