Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015

August 23rd, 2013


A couple of weeks ago, Mike wrote about the potential number of Lib Dem lost deposits in 2015 and how the total of lost LD deposits which, if local trends continue, could run into the hundreds.

Now in 2010, the Liberal Democrats didn’t lose any deposits, whilst the the Conservatives lost just two deposits and Labour lost five deposits.

At the General Election in 2015 I’m fully expecting the Lib Dem resources to be concentrated on around 75-80 seats, the 57 they currently hold, and the 20-25 target seats or so they could gain if the Tories have a relatively poor night.

The remaining 570 seats won’t have much Lib Dem money or resources thrown at them.

Paddy Power have put a market up on the number of Lib Dem lost deposits at the 2015 General Election.

Of the fourteen Great British by-elections held since the 2010 General Election, the Lib Dems have lost their deposit in seven of them.

On that basis, I’ve had a couple nibbles on the over 126 plus ranges.

UPDATE – Thanks to AndyJS – for posting the link to the Lib Dem Share of the vote in 2010 by consituency