Latest overall majority Betfair betting based on last trades. Price on CON maj now easing back pic.twitter.com/A8QezAwg4F
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2013
No overall majority remains the favourite
Compared with the run up to previous general elections betting on GE2015 has been relatively light for one big reason – we know when the election will be taking place and punters are, rightly, less keen to lock their stakes up for more than eighteen months in advance.
Just compare it with the last election. There was a huge amount of betting from Gordon Brown becoming LAB leader in June 2007 right up until polling day nearly three years later. Then, however, we didn’t know when Gord would decide to go and masses of bets were placed in weeks ahead of the October 2007 general election that never was.
So much speculation on PB throughout that parliament was on the timing of the election and big amounts were wagered.
Now there’s only a trickle of bets being placed and my only punts have been where the odds have been sufficiently long to tempt me. So I’ve got a fair slab at 8/1 on UKIP picking up more than one seat. I’ve also got a big bet on at 12/1 that the next election will produce a hung parliament but no coalition.
I’m starting to have a little nibble on single constituency markets like 5/1 on UKIP in Eastleigh and 6/1 on the LDs in Watford but my commitments are chicken feed compared with previous times.
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