The value bet on the CON poll progress is the 6-1 that they they’ll top the poll in next year’s EurosAugust 9th, 2013
UKIP still odds on favourite to win most votes in next May's EU elections pic.twitter.com/XgrwyLktDC
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2013
UKIP could have peaked a year too early
It has almost been taken as read amongst the commentariat that UKIP will come top on votes in next year’s EU parliament elections. The result is that in the betting Farage’s party remains odds on favourite to do it.
Yet another set of local by-elections overnight suggests that the fizz might have gone out of the purple surge.
Last week they lost two county council seats won in May meaning they they have failed to hold all three of the seats won that day when they’ve had to defend them.
Last night they came home in a poor third place in a district council ward which is in another of their May 2 county council successes.
The recent improvement in the CON poll share, reinforced this morning with them back up to 34% with YouGov, has fueled a media narrative that all is not lost for GE2015.
- But shouldn’t we be thinking first of the EU elections in just 9 months? After all, irrespective of how the blues have been doing in the Westminster polling, they have been top on votes in every single EU election since the party list system came in.
Also the Tories will go into next year’s EU elections with greater unity on the EU issue than they’ve known for years.
I got on the Tories for May 2014 at 10/1. That’s now down to 6/1 which is surely still a value bet.