Michael Gove’s flagship educational policies could turn out to be a GE2015 liability not an asset

June 18th, 2013

2010 LD voters give LAB a 22% lead on the issue

Whenever there is any polling involving the coalition’s education policies or Michael Gove personally the key swing group of voters next time, 2010 Lib Dems, appear to be taking a hostile view.

Today we have YouGov’s regular ratings on the best party for different policy areas and there’s been a move to Labour on Schools/Education. The party was 5% ahead – now that’s up to 9%.

Where it gets very interesting is on the very different view that the remaining Lib Dem voters have compared with those who supported the party at GE2010.

The chart below shows the breakdown – just click on the tab to see the differences.

As can be seen 59% of current LD voters back their own party as you might expect. But just look at the split amongst 2010 Lib Dems where LAB policies are ahead with a 22% gap over the Tories.

Now what this polling doesn’t show is the extent to which this might have influenced voting intentions.

    We do know, however, from other polling by YouGov and Ipsos-MORI that education is more important as an issue to 2010 Lib Dems than those who voted for other parties.

As I keep on saying 24% of the GB vote in 2010 went to the LDs. That’s going to be a lot smaller at the election and how this segment reacts could be good pointer.

Mike Smithson

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