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The generational splits that are working brilliantly for Nigel Farage

May 16th, 2013

This has be said many times before but it is worth emphasising – how UKIP is most popular amongst the older age groups – the segment of the electorate that is much more likely to vote.

The chart, based on this month’s Ipsos-MORI data, shows the proportion saying they are certain to vote in each age segment and the proportion saying they would vote UKIP if there was a general election tomorrow.

It has been observed in past elections that the oldest age segment is generally the least likely to change their minds which looks promising for UKIP. Whether that applies in GE2015 could be decisive.

The big reason why this poll, with the LAB lead down to just 3%, looked so bad for EdM is that Ipsos-MORI, uniquely amongst British pollsters, only counts the views of those saying they are 100% certain in its headline figures.

The poll that we see five times a week, the YouGov daily poll for News International, does not even ask how likely it is that respondents will vote. It’s figures today are very different from Ipsos-MORI with CON 30, LAB 40, LD 10, UKIP 14% which will certainly ease the jitters amongst the red team.

Mike Smithson

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