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My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields

May 2nd, 2013

May 2nd 2013: The day could be a turning point in British politics

Talking with party activists of all colours last night whose judgement I respect I believe that Ukip are set to do better in today’s local elections than the predictions.

Remember that in local by-elections in principal authorities that UKip have chalked up three gains from the Tories since the start of March. This followed a period of two years when they made no by-election gains at all.

This suggests a real momentum and a growing activist base that is charged up.

In today’s other big election in South Shields I’ve got a 6/1 bet that their Westminster by-election share could be in the 30-40% range which might just come off. My other punts at evens that they’ll beat the Tories for second place look like bankers and these are covering bets of 25/1 of victory in the by-election.

    One thing that’s clear is that the purples are doing particularly well with working class voters – the national polling points to serious inroads with the C2DE’s of which there are many in South Shields.

Unlike Eastleigh where there were five published polls there have been no surveys in David Miliband’s old seat. But the large moves in the national polls and that lone ComRes locals survey point to a big outcome which I define as being their biggest by-election vote share ever.

So what are your predictions? Record them in the thread below.

Mike Smithson

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