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My 50-1 shot for the GOP WH2016 nomination moves into the lead in New Hampshire

April 26th, 2013

Back on November 17th 2012 I backed Ron Paul’s son, at 50/1, to be the WH2016 Republican nominee.

A PPP poll in the first full primary state of New Hampshire had him at just 4%.

Today a new PPP New Hampshire poll is out putting Rand in the lead on 28% – 3% ahead of the betting favourite, Mario Rubio.

My thinking six months ago was that a big thing that Rand Paul’s likely to have going for him is his father’s extraordinarily enthusiastic and well organised supporter base that at one stage during last summer threatened to make life very difficult for the Romney camp.

In many states ostensibly won by Romney Paul supporters managed to get themselves elected as convention delegates and could have been in a powerful position. It was only when Ron himself intervened to call his troops off that Romney looked secure.

Rand Paul will be very strong in the states that have party caucuses rather than primaries and he’s likely to have a well-honed fund-raising machine.

Since November Rand has been more in the public eye following a spectacular 13 hour filibuster in the Senate.

Regular followers of PB will know that I love long-standing at big odds placed years in advance. I backed and tipped Barack Obama at 50/1 in May 2005. Maybe my Rand Paul 50/1 bet will also come good?

Mike Smithson

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