â€” TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) April 17, 2013
In recent years, following the advice of Nate Silver, has been very profitable.
Over the weekend he was interviewed in the TimesÂ (Â£Â£) on a variety of subjects, on the subject of UK politics, the following exchange took place
What about Britainâ€™s coalition government, I (the interviewer) say. Will it survive?
He thinks for a moment. â€œSo, Iâ€™ve never quite understood,â€ he says. â€œWhat are the Liberal Democrats getting out of the coalition exactly?â€
He really does ask the most acute questions. As I struggle to supply an answer, he says:
â€œAnd does Labour have a charismatic leader?â€ His prediction, based only on the fact that â€œyou have had a rough several years economicallyâ€, is that David Cameron will not be re-elected.
â€œHeâ€™s awfully unpopular right now,â€ he says. â€œLook, this is dangerous, because I can extrapolate from the political science literature in the US. In the US context, the economy is not everything, but itâ€™s an awfully large factor and the personalities of the candidates donâ€™t matter very much in nine out of ten cases. Iâ€™m not sure if thatâ€™s as true in the parliamentary system.
I think the economy bit has generally been shown to be true across different parts of the world.â€
Will Nate Silver’sÂ predictionsÂ be accurate?