Archive for April, 2013

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The economy remains top concern in latest Ipsos-MORI Index with unemployment and housing on the rise

Tuesday, April 30th, 2013



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South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices

Tuesday, April 30th, 2013



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The scene is set for a dramatic and unpredictable election day on Thursday

Tuesday, April 30th, 2013

One of the key rules when analysing polls is not to compare the individual numbers from the different firms but to look at the overall trends.

And from the main pollsters, the established firms that have been commissioned to carry out regular voting intention surveys at least once since at least GE2010, there is only one big message when looking at Ukip – the party is on a roll.

    We didn’t realise it at the time but the formation of the coalition on May 11th 2010 created the perfect conditions for the rise of UKIP: the Tories were emasculated and the LDs unable to carry out their traditional role as the repository for protest votes.

So what’s going to happen? How’s the rise of this fourth force going to impact on the overall outcome?

The answer is that we simply don’t know.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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The Tories deficit in latest ComRes phone poll is down to six percent

Monday, April 29th, 2013

But with YouGov the margin remains 9%



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To win the numbers of seats on Thursday that are being predicted then LAB will have to take many from 3rd place

Monday, April 29th, 2013



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The challenge for GE2015 – Appealing to current Ukip supporters and 2010 LDs at the same time

Monday, April 29th, 2013

There are two key cohorts of potential swing voters at GE2015 – those who are now saying they will vote UKIP and those who supported the LDs in 2010.

The interactive chart above shows how these two switching groups have very different views on the main issues facing the country.

For the Tories the main challenge is to win back those now saying Ukip while, at the same time, hoping that in the key LAB-CON marginals they will be defending as many yellows as possible stick with their 201o allegiance.

For Labour it is keeping on board those 2010 LD voters who now say they’ll vote for them.

At the moment the line seems to be holding for Labour but not the Tories – though all could change in the next two years.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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If you thought the party you’d like to vote could win in your seat then what would your choice be?

Sunday, April 28th, 2013

Some interesting cross-tabs in these YouGov findings

I posted the above clip from today’s YouGov dataset earlier on Twitter and it led to an interesting discussion on Twitter.

This would have been posted here earlier but for the woeful inadeqacies of EE mobile broadband which is as crap as Vodafone.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




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The Ralllings and Thrasher May 2 projection: Interactive chart

Sunday, April 28th, 2013

Meanwhile best YouGov poll for LAB since April 17

CON 31, LAB 40, LD 11, UKIP 11

To YouGov question on who you’d vote for if all parties had chance of winning seat it was CON 26, LAB 37, LD 12, UKIP 18. So here the Tories are just 8% ahead of Ukip.