— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2013
Quite simply Ukip has a better than 11.1% chance of doing it
Whenever punters make bets they are NOT making predictions. What they are doing is looking at the odds and deciding that the chance of the outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the price suggests.
Until now the view has been that Ukip has a massive task on its hands converting the support represented in current polls into seats at a general election.
I still think that under first past the post it still is going to be a big challenge for Farage’s party to win Westminster seats but that recent events indicate that it might be a tad easier.
We had, of course, the dramatic Ukip second place in Eastleigh less than a month ago. Since then we’ve seen serious progress in local by-elections with the party chalking up two victories in the past 11 days.
Although Ukip insists that its main aim in the May 2nd locals is to build up vote share the seats up in the rolling four year cycle present a great opportunity. The vast bulk of those at stake are currently Tory in the old shire counties.
They should come out of the day well placed for the 2014 Euro elections which could put them in a better position than ever before to achieve what has always eluded them – getting an MP elected.
At GE2015 they’ll get more prominence than in recent general elections and Farage will feature a lot more. The possibility of a breakthrough in seats must be there.
The 8/1 on Ukip winning 2 or more seats at the general election is from William Hill. In implied probability terms 8/1 represents an 11.11% chance.
For the latest polling and political betting news
Help us to fund the new comments system by making a donation to support the site's costs