The Ashcroft marginals poll said LAB majority of 84 – punters think that Miliband’s party will be 11 seats shortMarch 12th, 2013
â€” Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2013
The Ladbrokes GE 2015 line betting set market was launched in January and offers punters each-way bets at evens on whether the parties will be above or below the stated thresholds.
At stake will be 650 seats so, theoretically at least, a party needs 326 to be sure of a majority. However, taking into account the Sinn Fein MPs who don’t actually sit, the speaker and his deputies the target is about 323.
Above are the latest prices showing the changes since the market opening.
What is clear is that those who are prepared to risk their own cash are not yet prepared to bet that LAB will reach even the reduced threshold for an overall majority.
My view, so far, has been to keep out even though, on the face of it, LAB up bets or CON down one seems to offer value.
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